Balancing Chance and Skill

[Guybrush20X6]

A lot of people on these boards have been wishing for the return of Melee's competitive feel but is that really the best thing for the game? That said, Brawl went so far the other way even those who play casually felt something was off.

The one thing Smash as a whole has going for it other other fighting games is that you don't need to hit buttons within stupidly precise time frames to be effective while also having a deceptive amount of depth involved. And I don't mean wave-dashing.

In Smash a newcomer should have at least a fighting chance against someone more skilled than they are but fights should not be decided by chance alone. Chance should be a factor but enough skill should be sufficient to limit how much chance goes against you.

A good example: Pokeballs. It give anyone the chance to get a legendary and kick ass while skilled players can make use of it as a decent projectile, making even Goldeen worthwhile.
A bad example: TRIPPING. There's no control over it for either player and only allows for a cheap shot. No real skill involved.

What are your thoughts?

 

[| Kailex |]

Well, items in competetive play... Well, you know
But random tripping is something we all dislike about brawl

 

[| Kailex |]

Dammit, lag posts suck

 

[nat pagle]

Competitive: Obviously no items.

Casual: To an extent. If scrubs are able to play equally as skilled players because items are so bogus, then it's not working. Skilled players should win the majority of the time as they are well, skilled. Otherwise there's no reason to have skill in the equation.

 

[Kapus]

I think tripping is the only thing that's ever been a serious problem as far as "chance" goes.

Yeah, items also add whimsy to the game, but in a seriously competitive scene, items are turned off completely, so they're not a big issue. Even in less competitive matches where items are allowed, items that people tend to find obnoxious (lightning bolt, superspicy curry) can simply be excluded from the game individually.

I suppose stage hazards should also be considered here. Some stages in Brawl such as Warioware and Spear Pillar were really violent and crazy with their gimmicks. However, if there are enough "safe" stages to balance out those dangerous ones, such as Smashville and Delfino Plaza, I think it will be alright. It's nice to have variety, anyway.

 

[Moon Monkey]

A lot of people on these boards have been wishing for the return of Melee's competitive feel but is that really the best thing for the game? That said, Brawl went so far the other way even those who play casually felt something was off.

The one thing Smash as a whole has going for it other other fighting games is that you don't need to hit buttons within stupidly precise time frames to be effective while also having a deceptive amount of depth involved. And I don't mean wave-dashing.

In Smash a newcomer should have at least a fighting chance against someone more skilled than they are but fights should not be decided by chance alone. Chance should be a factor but enough skill should be sufficient to limit how much chance goes against you.

A good example: Pokeballs. It give anyone the chance to get a legendary and kick *** while skilled players can make use of it as a decent projectile, making even Goldeen worthwhile.
A bad example: TRIPPING. There's no control over it for either player and only allows for a cheap shot. No real skill involved.

What are your thoughts?

Anything with chance doesn't work well with a competitive scene. All players need full control of their actions. That's the reason why items on a whole will never be accepted by the vast majority.

Not to say items are bad, they have their place. The beauty of smash is that it is accessible and customizable to all players so if people want to play casually with items, slo-mo speed and on spear pillar they can or they have the option to play 4 stocks, no items, fox only final destination.

 

[Conviction]

Less chance the better.

If the skill gap is obvious, so be it. It's the reward you get for being skilled at the game.

 

[Vkrm]

Less chance the better.

If the skill gap is obvious, so be it. It's the reward you get for being skilled at the game.

This pretty much sums up my feelings. Even in super casual brawl, less skilled players get penised with or without items.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Mew celebii jirachi same odds as last time

 

[Guybrush20X6]

A lot of people are disparaging it but it's an important part of game design, just the feeling that random chance can go your way. Skill should rule but without the element of chance there's nothing to suggest to newcomers that something could go their way and by proxy it'll eventually improve their skills. Once they've got a foothold, then we can start switching things off and on as needed. Personally, I switch off explosive items and set the rest to low.

Games with nothing but technical skill mattering like Street Fighter just leads to newcomers spamming the one attack they know and other stuff like that.

And be honest, how many of us spend our first hours in game running from computer players waiting for a good item to show up? (Please for the love of Arceus say I'm not the only one.)

 

[Conviction]

Well, even before I started playing competitively, I turned items off because I thought they were dumb. Note, I started playing competitively when I was 12.

 

[Medaka444]

I enjoy randomness - such as items or hazards - because I feel that it makes every fight more unique than they would otherwise be. Part of it may be that my friends and I often have fun madly rushing towards Hammers, Smash Balls, and Dragoon Parts. In Melee, my favorite stage for Versus is Big Blue, which should tell you something about me. In Brawl, I call Final Destination (and sometimes Battlefield) the Training Stage, since I can't think of any other reason why I, personally, would want to play on it.

On leveling the playing field, I can only say that I dislike tactics that are difficult to master, are always optimal, and carry no or minor risk for failure. Thus, I'm fine with wavedashing and powershielding, but not L-cancelling. If quoting Sirlin isn't too cliche, here's something about Street Fighter IV: "[Y]ou cancel a forward moving attack a frame or two into it with a throw command in order to greatly extend your throw range. Do the designers want a long throw range or do they not? If they don't kara throws shouldn't be in the game. If they do, then base throw ranges should be extended for all players, not just the ones who input a difficult command."

 

[Z1GMA]

The one thing Smash as a whole has going for it other other fighting games is that you don't need to hit buttons within stupidly precise time frames to be effective while also having a deceptive amount of depth involved. And I don't mean wave-dashing.

I'm not gonna hate on your statement, bro.
But imo, in some cases, SSB takes more techniqal skill than "Normal Fighting Games".

 

[Networker1]

If skill can't overcome the item's strength, I take it out of play. This is stuff like hammers and home run bats and lightning. If it only provides a minor or severely zoned advantage, or is a strategic item me and my friends keep it in. This is stuff like star wand, pokeballs, and motion sensor bombs. Smashballs are kept on for the fun of it, even though we know some of them are super OP.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

If skill can't overcome the item's strength, I take it out of play. This is stuff like hammers and home run bats and lightning. If it only provides a minor or severely zoned advantage, or is a strategic item me and my friends keep it in. This is stuff like star wand, pokeballs, and motion sensor bombs. Smashballs are kept on for the fun of it, even though we know some of them are super OP.

Personally I keep the Hammers on because it's too funny when some one picks up a dud one and is left flailing a stick. :D

 

[Big-Cat]

A lot of people are disparaging it but it's an important part of game design, just the feeling that random chance can go your way. Skill should rule but without the element of chance there's nothing to suggest to newcomers that something could go their way and by proxy it'll eventually improve their skills. Once they've got a foothold, then we can start switching things off and on as needed. Personally, I switch off explosive items and set the rest to low.

Games with nothing but technical skill mattering like Street Fighter just leads to newcomers spamming the one attack they know and other stuff like that.

And be honest, how many of us spend our first hours in game running from computer players waiting for a good item to show up? (Please for the love of Arceus say I'm not the only one.)

Thing is, there will always be an element of chance in a match. I can only predict what my opponent's going to do and then take the proper guesses to counter him. Difference between this and items is that the elements of chance are strictly within the control of the players.

As for the oh so precious newcomers, they better adapt or die. You don't see us complaining about wanting the CPU nerfed in a single player game. Why should we for a human player in a multiplayer game? As I've said in other threads, if this is about matchmaking, use an online system like Tekken's that sets you up with players within a specific skill range as determined by titles. It's not that difficult to remedy.

And even in Smash do we have beginning players spam the same moves over and over. I think every one of us here can relate to someone spamming Kirby or Pikachu's Down B. The game could be as technical as Wii Sports and you'd still have that happening.

 

[Conviction]

^ Truf.

The chance of winning is based on your skill. It's the same with sports, play with people in your skill level and progress. Of course I don't a expect a tyke to go head to head with a MLB player. Same with Smash, so don't be dumb by challenging someone who has a record behind them unless you think you have the skill to take them on. That's how you stop from being discouraged.

Which reminds me, it's always funny that "neighborhood's best" kid comes to a tourney all cocky and **** only to be destroyed and given a reality check.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Wow, in my attempts to debate game design I have accidentally brought forth the horrors of the scrubs vs pro wars. I'm sure there's an Extra Credits or Game Theory that explains what I'm getting at better than be but I'll try

Remember, a competitive scene will keep a game alive long after release but it's the newcomers and those with moderate experience that'll shift units. If they can't get into it and spread the word to on-the-bench friends (which assuming the 3DS versions need more than 1 cart to do multiplayer will be a big deal) sales will suffer. Maybe... I don't know that much about marketing.
My point is, randomness is important for leveling out the playing field between those of different skills when playing for fun and giving the illusion of competency. In my matches with friends who don't play smash bros, I'm almost always the winner but that makes it all the sweeter when the either get lucky and take my smug ass down or find an effective attack to use.

In the end I'm not talking competitive play, I'm talking balance for the garden variety Smash game. What random factors in that do you find random but fair and/or unfair.

P.S. I'm not saying there's a right way for smash to be played. I'm just talking about the default settings.

 

[Conviction]

Oh that?

Make the items as silly as possible. When my younger relatives want to play, I find a small stage (or in Brawl make a really small stage or chaotic one), turn all items on, put the frequency on high, and let them have a field day.

It's always funny to watch.

 

[Big-Cat]

My point is, randomness is important for leveling out the playing field between those of different skills when playing for fun and giving the illusion of competency. In my matches with friends who don't play smash bros, I'm almost always the winner but that makes it all the sweeter when the either get lucky and take my smug *** down or find an effective attack to use.

In the end I'm not talking competitive play, I'm talking balance for the garden variety Smash game. What random factors in that do you find random but fair and/or unfair.

Why is that this is such an issue when games have been like this for thousands of years and have never needed to have outside factors affect the outcome?

If you MUST hold back for them to stand a chance, then hold back regardless of the settings. Otherwise, the beginning players are NOT entitled to be let off easy. If you really wanna win, you better work, b**ch.

 

[Conviction]

It's probably the same reason games shove tutorials in our faces and are wayyyy over done.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

If you MUST hold back for them to stand a chance, then hold back regardless of the settings. Otherwise, the beginning players are NOT entitled to be let off easy. If you really wanna win, you better work, b**ch.

Wow, you're an endearing individual.

I'm talking about playing the games casually and in particular what random chances are just plain unfair rather than adding a risk/comeback factor.

 

[Jaedrik]

I'm sure casual players can determine which items are unfair and which have decent risk/reward to toss up the outcomes of a match, no need for anyone to worry about that with item switch and stuff.
In competitive Smash, no chance, absolutely none, 100% skill unless it's very predictable chance, such as Peach's turnips (over a longer period of time that is).

 

[nat pagle]

Wow, you're an endearing individual.

I'm talking about playing the games casually and in particular what random chances are just plain unfair rather than adding a risk/comeback factor.

Even in Mario Kart, if someone knows how to play they'll beat a casual any time.

There is nothing Sakurai could add that the skilled player could not take better advantage of than the less skilled player.

 

[liets]

chance items: smart bombs, splodey crates, bob-ombs, sticky bombs, motion detect mines (all of which had a much higher chance to appear than other items, and i SWEAR loved to appear at the exact time you used an attack)
tripping
other stuff i don't care to remember
=i got annoyed
now, i don't mind an epic item here and there, but i don't like having a bunch of them that appear more often. please do us a favor sakurai and make this more skill-based this time around. oh yeah and bring back mewtwo :3

 

[nat pagle]

chance items: smart bombs, splodey crates, bob-ombs, sticky bombs, motion detect mines (all of which had a much higher chance to appear than other items, and i SWEAR loved to appear at the exact time you used an attack)

Oh my gosh I hated those. Here's a video of a pretty ridiculous series of unfortunate spawns:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EFx0-Zkn54

That n-air into that capsule was cringeworthy.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Even in Mario Kart, if someone knows how to play they'll beat a casual any time.

There is nothing Sakurai could add that the skilled player could not take better advantage of than the less skilled player.

Mario Kart is actually a good example to talk about. In particular how the Blue Shell is a bad one on the surface

You can only get a blue shell when you're in last or near last place so the only person you'll benefit is the people in second or third place. So what you do is hold on to it until you are in second or third place and then fire it, thus it helps people with the skill to climb back up more than the hapless newbie at the back.

Still hate it and wish a pox upon it's family though.

Though one game that puts more skill into it is Diddy Kong Racing and this time I got someone who put it better than me.

Again my point is random stuff should not be a dice roll to see who wins but something to spice up the game and maybe give the lessers a chance.

 

[BSP]

OP, I think Sakurai already has your ideas in mind. In one Kotaku article, he said that one of the reasons he put final smashes in was so there would be less chance of the same person winning over and over.

Smash already has this balance you speak of. You can play with everything on high on Wario ware, or everything off on SV. The good thing is that no one is forced to play one way.

Holding the blue shell in Mario kart is bad idea generally lol.

 

[IhaveSonar]

Items.

Turn them on to have fun and give beginners a chance.

Turn them off to have an almost perfectly skill-based, competitive match.

And, to a lesser extent, having a good mix of competitive and crazy stages will aid the game for all classes of players.

 

[Big-Cat]

Wow, you're an endearing individual.

I'm talking about playing the games casually and in particular what random chances are just plain unfair rather than adding a risk/comeback factor.

Relax, it's a reference to that new Britney Spears song which might as well be Wii Fit Trainer's theme.

Mario Kart is actually a good example to talk about. In particular how the Blue Shell is a bad one on the surface

You can only get a blue shell when you're in last or near last place so the only person you'll benefit is the people in second or third place. So what you do is hold on to it until you are in second or third place and then fire it, thus it helps people with the skill to climb back up more than the hapless newbie at the back.

Still hate it and wish a pox upon it's family though.

The problem with the blue shell is that it's mostly uncounterable for the person being targeted. This is not fair design. A much fairer example would be the Capos in Tekken. They have a lot of "cheap" stuff up their pant legs that new players can mash out, BUT they are counterable and the players are forced to learn new tactics to continue to be effective with them.

 

[ThomasTheTrain]

Wow, in my attempts to debate game design I have accidentally brought forth the horrors of the scrubs vs pro wars. I'm sure there's an Extra Credits or Game Theory that explains what I'm getting at better than be but I'll try


In the end I'm not talking competitive play, I'm talking balance for the garden variety Smash game. What random factors in that do you find random but fair and/or unfair.

P.S. I'm not saying there's a right way for smash to be played. I'm just talking about the default settings.

See this is where you, "game theory", and the laughable concept of general game design degrees fail(the technical skills a game design course will give you is handy but they theory is poop)..

The idea of "randomness helping newbies" is relatively new in terms of multiplayer, and is really known for being pioneered by Robin Walker. And if you are familiar with the case in which he did it--TF2, random crits--you'd recognize that it's for an FPS... the "major" multiplayer games of the past few years have basically been, Dota, LoL, tf2, CS, Sc2, CoD, Halo, and Battle field. Of these the only ones that really have "randomness" being employed to help newbies would be tf2, and the newer halo titles(CoD has ton of variable but it doesn't use random chance as a means of coming back they give you death streaks etc) Now than there's the argument of randomness in games like Dota 2, LoL and Star craft, but i think it's safe to assume that the rules that apply to their genres don't apply to smash by ANY means(especially since their randomness doesn't help new people at all, it actually just beats them up even more..)

You look at the concept of randomness from an all genre encompassing view. When in reality it's like comparing the philosophy of professional body building, and the philosophy behind tennis, it makes no sense.

Now than i'll give you that SSB games aren't like the stereotypical fighting games, and i think you do have to appeal to the causality of it all. I think the addition of the final smash, was a good remedy since it gives everyone a chance to win, but it can easily be turned off. I think the "floatiness" and general super surviability given to brawl was flawed because it hurt the "competitive" scene while not benefiting the casual scene what so ever(making it so that players can live longer, and get on stage easier, just lets better players destroy worse players with less risk..)

So i ask what exactly do you not want in the game OP? If it's wave dashing and such should be removed you're delusional, i had the game for years as a kid and never noticed it nor did my friends, while it basically became a staple in the competitive scene, it's something that didn't really destroy the game..

If it's L canceling i'd rather it not go, and since like 2% of players know it exists, but SHFFL'ing is probably a problem it did extend combos unnaturally long, and was kind of a bug so it probably could be removed.

And there's another mechanic i noticed in Brawl that in some terms damage was variable, as in if you pulled the same combo 20 times at the exact same percentages, sometimes it would ring out instantly other times it would let them fight their way back. I don't think it was that way in melee the old fox down grab+B down, into a B up aerial hit usually would insta KO at like 97% i mean the combo was easily dodged but still it's rather obnoxious when marth Tip hits in brawl would somtimes insta KO at like 80% and than not do it at like 90%...

 

[Jaedrik]

the "major" multiplayer games of the past few years have basically been, Dota, LoL, tf2, CS, Sc2, CoD, Halo, and Battle field. Of these the only ones that really have "randomness" being employed to help newbies would be tf2, and the newer halo titles(CoD has ton of variable but it doesn't use random chance as a means of coming back they give you death streaks etc)

While I cannot speak much on DotA, LoL, or CS, I can say with certitude that CoD has a horrible form of randomness that hinders skilled players: unpredictable recoil with fun random walk equations, idle sway, flinch, aim assist, and the fact that you have no idea what the opponent is packing until they kill you (bar snipers), all these compound with the inherently non-random such as low TTK. Battlefield has it worse with Cone of Fire and bullet speed/drop in addition to the aforementioned CoD problems. Halo 2, however, was the tightest FPS in the Halo series, things have gone down from there, H4 gaining many of the features of CoD.
Other than that, great post, though I disagree with your statement about SHFFL making combos go "Unnaturally Long".

 

[Conviction]

LoL has RNG but it's managed in a way that it doesn't affect skill.

Fears and such apply RNG but you got hit with the move in the first place so it's kind of your fault RNG is being applied to you.

 

[ThomasTheTrain]

While I cannot speak much on DotA, LoL, or CS, I can say with certitude that CoD has a horrible form of randomness that hinders skilled players: unpredictable recoil with fun random walk equations, idle sway, flinch, aim assist, and the fact that you have no idea what the opponent is packing until they kill you (bar snipers), all these compound with the inherently non-random such as low TTK. Battlefield has it worse with Cone of Fire and bullet speed/drop in addition to the aforementioned CoD problems. Halo 2, however, was the tightest FPS in the Halo series, things have gone down from there, H4 gaining many of the features of CoD.
Other than that, great post, though I disagree with your statement about SHFFL making combos go "Unnaturally Long".

heh the "random recoil" isn't actually random, it's hard to explain, but each gun always goes in their own unique direction just how much it goes varies from instance to instance, which i guess is random(for example, CoD 4, the mp5 would actually go up to the right, than go into small circles, which made it appear random), and to give it the appearance of random they have some guns actively sway while AIDs while others don't. The flinch is always the same depending on what direction you get hit from, and what hits you. aim assist can be turned off these days .

I know that on a console you can't really counteract that ****, but with a mouse you can easily control the recoil, and the gun sway is predictable, so if you actually care enough, you can get that down as well. Flinch is a pain i guess but it can be controlled, i don't think anyone plays the game seriously enough on the PC to try, but for CS they have flinch and some people have actually learned to still head shots through it. And yea battlefield is pretty random i guess, i mean it's hard to compare when you have like 32 players vs having a maximum of 4.. If there was a SSBM game with 32 players there would be tons of things that appear to be random as hell(the zoning spam would be obnoxious) and yea halo reach and 4 added more and more spread, and random garbage which is unfortunate since it was one of the few console shooters that was taken semi seriously.

As for SHFFL i don't know i enjoy it but the L canceling at the end can easily be removed and it would still be useful/cool without being absurdly beneficial with no downside for failure. I mean I'm nowhere near tourny level of play for melee, but for missing a SHFFL all that happens is you go through the whole animation which would of happened either way, or you end up pulling out your shield as you miss time it. Atleast with wavedashing if you mess up your timing there is a huge amount of punishment.

And as for the LoL thing, yea their RNG is strange, i think it like works on increments of 10 and they try to fulfill their crit %'s within the 10 AA's because it seems like if you miss 2-3 in a row with 25% chance for a crit you're guaranteed to have a crit in your next hit. theoretically if it was true RNG it should be possible to go long periods of time without getting crits even if your chance is 50% which at least i've never seen happen. So i'm curious as to how exactly they programmed it to work(i know dota's is based on balancing it around 100% so if you don't proc a crit your chance of your next one being a crit goes, up and if you keep track of your hits, you can actually predict when the crit will come)

 

[Jaedrik]

heh the "random recoil" isn't actually random, it's hard to explain, but each gun always goes in their own unique direction just how much it goes varies from instance to instance, which i guess is random(for example, CoD 4, the mp5 would actually go up to the right, than go into small circles, which made it appear random), and to give it the appearance of random they have some guns actively sway while AIDs while others don't. The flinch is always the same depending on what direction you get hit from, and what hits you. aim assist can be turned off these days .

I know that on a console you can't really counteract that ****, but with a mouse you can easily control the recoil, and the gun sway is predictable, so if you actually care enough, you can get that down as well. Flinch is a pain i guess but it can be controlled, i don't think anyone plays the game seriously enough on the PC to try, but for CS they have flinch and some people have actually learned to still head shots through it. And yea battlefield is pretty random i guess, i mean it's hard to compare when you have like 32 players vs having a maximum of 4.. If there was a SSBM game with 32 players there would be tons of things that appear to be random as hell(the zoning spam would be obnoxious) and yea halo reach and 4 added more and more spread, and random garbage which is unfortunate since it was one of the few console shooters that was taken semi seriously.

As for SHFFL i don't know i enjoy it but the L canceling at the end can easily be removed and it would still be useful/cool without being absurdly beneficial with no downside for failure. I mean I'm nowhere near tourny level of play for melee, but for missing a SHFFL all that happens is you go through the whole animation which would of happened either way, or you end up pulling out your shield as you miss time it. Atleast with wavedashing if you mess up your timing there is a huge amount of punishment.

Weapons in CoD do not go in a direction, it chooses a random number, the MP5 chooses, vertical, -30 to 70, and horizontal, 70 to -80. It can choose ANY number, unpredictably, from those ranges, and then apply it to the gun, meaning it can go left, right, up, and down, your statement of circles is ridiculous, and relies on a large amount of specific value sets that will, in all likelihood, never happen, the chance to go right being 53% and left being 46%. Tell me it's not random, brah, I got the whole of Den Kirson's Proboards at my back. Oh, and excuse me on the sway, sway is entirely predictable. Flinch is an enemy dependent factor, saying you can predict flinch is like saying you can predict exactly what weapon and exactly from what angle and exactly at what range you're being hit, seeing as it's based on damage and direction alone. Unpredictable and random. And you're right, aim assist largely only affects console. Yes, with a mouse one can reign in recoil, but it's still random and completely unpredictable by far and in large. All that being said, spread is the cardinal sin of FPS randomness, but unpredictable recoil is no better.
My questioning of your objections against SHFFL is that it is entirely predictable, an execution based on skill alone, and your declaration of 'going on unnaturally long' is arbitrary.

 

[ThomasTheTrain]

Weapons in CoD do not go in a direction, it chooses a random number, the MP5 chooses, vertical, -30 to 70, and horizontal, 70 to -80. It can choose ANY number, unpredictably, from those ranges, and then apply it to the gun, meaning it can go left, right, up, and down, your statement of circles is ridiculous, and relies on a large amount of specific value sets that will, in all likelihood, never happen, the chance to go right being 53% and left being 46%. Tell me it's not random, brah, I got the whole of Den Kirson's Proboards at my back. Oh, and excuse me on the sway, sway is entirely predictable. Flinch is an enemy dependent factor, saying you can predict flinch is like saying you can predict exactly what weapon and exactly from what angle and exactly at what range you're being hit, seeing as it's based on damage and direction alone. Unpredictable and random. And you're right, aim assist largely only affects console. Yes, with a mouse one can reign in recoil, but it's still random and completely unpredictable by far and in large. All that being said, spread is the cardinal sin of FPS randomness, but unpredictable recoil is no better.
My questioning of your objections against SHFFL is that it is entirely predictable, an execution based on skill alone, and your declaration of 'going on unnaturally long' is arbitrary.

heh breh sorry played it on promod pc mods for cod4 back in the day, stock might be random, though most promod servers/leagues ended up limiting you to ak47 74u, and the r700 towards the end, and they played with like 1-2 shot kill no regen which blew. I'm not saying i want it removed, i'm saying it's somewhat reasonable if they do i'd actually like air recovery after being knocked up, to take longer than it did in melee, and i would prefer they reworked how getting hit in mid air can reset some people's jumps because on some of the floaty characters, and lighter ones it's kind of drastic.

As for it being predictable, i can't really argue against that, but even if you do predict it, it is a flat out upgrade from a SHFF, since L canceling is just a complete bonus. Or if you mean that seeing SHFF's are predictable in which case i guess so.. but tons of moves and things are easily predictable, just because they're predictable doesn't make it easy to counter.. and in the Case of L canceling it's actually harder to counter than a normal SHFF, there's no downside to the L cancel, if they mess up the L cancel they're basically back where they started. If they mess up a wave dash they're a sitting duck. I have no problem with SHFF's and i don't really mind the L canceling, but i wouldn't be surprised to not see it in Smashu

 

[Jaedrik]

heh breh sorry played it on promod pc mods for cod4 back in the day, stock might be random, though most promod servers/leagues ended up limiting you to ak47 74u, and the r700 towards the end, and they played with like 1-2 shot kill no regen which blew. I'm not saying i want it removed, i'm saying it's somewhat reasonable if they do i'd actually like air recovery after being knocked up, to take longer than it did in melee, and i would prefer they reworked how getting hit in mid air can reset some people's jumps because on some of the floaty characters, and lighter ones it's kind of drastic.

As for it being predictable, i can't really argue against that, but even if you do predict it, it is a flat out upgrade from a SHFF, since L canceling is just a complete bonus. Or if you mean that seeing SHFF's are predictable in which case i guess so.. but tons of moves and things are easily predictable, just because they're predictable doesn't make it easy to counter.. and in the Case of L canceling it's actually harder to counter than a normal SHFF, there's no downside to the L cancel, if they mess up the L cancel they're basically back where they started. If they mess up a wave dash they're a sitting duck. I have no problem with SHFF's and i don't really mind the L canceling, but i wouldn't be surprised to not see it in Smashu

Promod uses the same gosh darn golly gee wizz recoil mechanic as stock, it's still random, don't cow doo-doo yourself.
As for the rest, execution is a key element of skill, and is not random in any way. Failing to execute is not by chance.