A Realistic Look at the SSBU Roster

[XigmunGothar]

What could the roster reasonably look like? My general speculation is as such. I'm interested in how others think Sakurai and his team will fill it out.

I am thinking there are likely 72 slots on the character select screen (if echo fighters have there own slot next to the character they echo). We know 64 of those slots (Mario through Ridley, with Pokemon Trainer and Mii Fighters each taking only one slot) and 1 with be for random select. That leaves 7. Based on what we know and listening to what others have hypothesized, I am guessing 3 or 4 more echo characters and 3 or 4 more original newcomers.

So, who's most likely? Not necessarily that you want, but that you expect.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Inkling
Ridley
K Rool
Simon Belmont
Geno
Dixie Kong

Isaac

...Ashley?
Some Pokemon

IDK

Fully expect ...something like that

 

[XigmunGothar]

PsychoIncarnate,

While I personally think two DK series newcomers to be unlikely, I really like your list, esp. Simon and Dixie.

 

[Impa4Smash]

My opinion on who I think WILL make it in changes all the time, but if I had to guess now:

1) King K Rool - Seems like a lock to me
2) Decidueye or Mimikyu for that Gen 7 Rep
3) Ashley - Extremely popular in Japan. Nintendo is pushing her
4) Dark Samus - Metroid hype is at a high. Easy, logical echo. Dark Pit exists, so
5) A WTF rep - Karate Joe, Mach Rider, Steve from Minecraft, etc.
6) Chrom - Ike echo. Robin's final smash is MIA. Weak argument, but fan demand after getting shafted for 4 may get him in
7) Simon Belmont - The leak

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

My opinion on who I think WILL make it in changes all the time, but if I had to guess now:

1) King K Rool - Seems like a lock to me
2) Decidueye or Mimikyu for that Gen 7 Rep
3) Ashley - Extremely popular in Japan. Nintendo is pushing her
4) Dark Samus - Metroid hype is at a high. Easy, logical echo. Dark Pit exists, so
5) A WTF rep - Karate Joe, Mach Rider, Steve from Minecraft, etc.
6) Chrom - Ike echo. Robin's final smash is MIA. Weak argument, but fan demand after getting shafted for 4 may get him in
7) Simon Belmont - The leak

I was watching Palutena's guidance the other day and some interesting lines came up "You'd be too much like Ike" and "But you don't have an Aether recovery move"

So I'm wondering if Chrom could work as an Ike echo

 

[XigmunGothar]

My opinion on who I think WILL make it in changes all the time, but if I had to guess now:

1) King K Rool - Seems like a lock to me
2) Decidueye or Mimikyu for that Gen 7 Rep
3) Ashley - Extremely popular in Japan. Nintendo is pushing her
4) Dark Samus - Metroid hype is at a high. Easy, logical echo. Dark Pit exists, so
5) A WTF rep - Karate Joe, Mach Rider, Steve from Minecraft, etc.
6) Chrom - Ike echo. Robin's final smash is MIA. Weak argument, but fan demand after getting shafted for 4 may get him in
7) Simon Belmont - The leak

I agree Dark Samus and Chrom are really high probability among all potential echoes; and if any new Pokemon, yeah, Decidueye seems best bet. I personally like the idea of another grass/plant character somewhere (in any capacity).

I didn't know Ashley was so popular. Good to know!

 

[Impa4Smash]

I was watching Palutena's guidance the other day and some interesting lines came up "You'd be too much like Ike" and "But you don't have an Aether recovery move"

So I'm wondering if Chrom could work as an Ike echo

Chrom actually does Ike’s recovery move in a cutscene in FE Awakening

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Chrom actually does Ike’s recovery move in a cutscene in FE Awakening

Well, I guess Viridi and Palutena are not all knowing Goddesses

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ridley
Inkling
K Rool
Rex and Pyra/Elma
Lycanroc
Retro character (lip, Excitebiker, etc)
Ashley
Simon Belmont
Geno

Dixie
Daisy
Dark Samus
Shadow
Isabelle


Top are realistic newcomers (could have put Isaac up there perhaps or a Rhythm Heaven character). Bottom are echos.

 

[MattX20]

I've thought about this for a while, but I think I have a fairly realistic guess for what the overall newcomer size will be. My thought is 12 altogether including echo fighters. My thought process is that when Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers this time around, he means not to expect 21+ newcomers like last time, which is fair given the size already. Plus, it would be smaller than Brawl's newcomer count of 18. The Ice Climbers were pretty much guarenteed to return, but the other 6 however weren't, so subtract 6 from Brawl's newcomer count, and it equals 12. With Inkling, Daisy, and Ridley already confirmed, my guess for the remaining newcomers are Decidueye, Geno, Rex and Pyra, Simon Belmont if the rumors are true, Bandana Waddle Dee, King K. Rool, Hilda, Ninten, and Dark Samus. That, and I think since Sakurai said the roster will start off as big as the original Smash 64 roster, he might want to end the base roster with the same number of characters.

 

[Diem]

I expanded upon these expectations in my post in the Newcomer Speculation Thread, but here's what I think is reasonable, based on the principles of:

A) Long-time, popular requests (e.g. Mega Man, Cloud, Daisy, Ridley)
B) Characters reasonably usable by Nintendo/have a history with Nintendo (e.g. not Kratos, Master Chief, etc.)

Full characters:

1. Simon Belmont
2. Geno
3. King K. Rool
4. Sora
5. Banjo Kazooie
6. Skull Kid

Simon/Geno/Banjo Kazooie are all what I call "soft third party characters" in that they exist either 100% exclusively or almost exclusively on Nintendo consoles, despite not being owned by Nintendo, making them not third party in the same essence of Cloud and Snake, and more in the essence of Bayonetta (whose sequels are exclusive to Nintendo). Geno only appears in a couple Mario RPG games and Smash 4 as a Mii Costume, Simon's only non Nintendo appearance is in an insignificant XBLA/PSN spinoff game, and Banjo Kazooie's only non Nintendo appearances are Nuts & Bolts (which no one cares about or wants to remember) and Rare Replay, which is just a port of the N64 games. Sora is the only character who would be more like the other third party picks, as his major games are on PlayStation, but the (still significant, apparently) spinoff games are on Nintendo handhelds, so there's still some significance there (more than Cloud).

Echo Fighters:

1. Dark Samus
2. Shadow the Hedgehog
3. Dixie Kong/Funky Kong
4. Ken/Akuma
5. Blaziken (Capt. Falcon)
6. Birdo

These also have to be characters of some significance who would work as echo characters without needing much extra work.

 

[StormC]

Newcomers
Inkling
Ridley
Elma
Bandana Dee
Simon Belmont
King K. Rool

Echo Fighters
Daisy
Shadow
Octoling

I'm the least confident on Elma for this one... she could be a Pokemon or Chorus Kids or anything. But this is my prediction as of now.

 

[smashingDoug]

Who I think we could see I don’t necessary want some of em but whatever
K rool
Ashley
Xenoblade rep probably Elma depending when the project got started
Hilda
Dark samus
Shadow
Retro lip or Mach rider
Gen 8 or the new Pokémon from the go games
Two or three third party’s

 

[Captain Shades]

I was just looking up newcomer lists and Smash Wii U had 21, Brawl 18, and Melee 14. Also going over Wii U, it has 15, without DLC or Echoes, but including the 3 Mii types as individual characters. So taking this into consideration Wii U had a lower roster of new comers compared to Brawl.

If we look at how many characters are returning we have: Wolf, Snake, Pichu, Young Link, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Ice Climbers, making a total of 8 returning characters. We can break this down further as Ice Climbers were already programmed for Wii U, leaving us with 7 characters to make. If we go the Brawl assets route though, then that takes out Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Wolf, which were changed, but ultimately won’t take that much time compared to a character from Melee, which they have to build from the ground up. Leaving only Young Link and Pichu, which are both not to difficult as they are clones of established characters from Wii U, with Pichu using Pikachu assets and Young Link having assets of both Link and Toons to use.

I may be generalizing or over simplifying character creation, but let’s assume for a second that every two character counts as 1 newcomer in development due to work already being laid out from previous enteries then that takes out 4 newcomers. If Wii U had around 15 fully built characters, 2 Echoes, and the return of a clone, then I think it’s reasonable to say Smash Ultimate will have around 12-13 new comers and 3-4 Echoes.

If Ultimate is more fan voted, along with representing new titles for 2017 that were in development, then I presume that the character roster will be as follows.

Fan Requested
1) Ridley
2) King K Rool

Nintendo Marketing
1) Celica
2) Spring Man/ Ribbon Girl
3) Rex and Pyra, or Elma depending on time
4) Decidueye

Mix of Nintendo and Fans
1) Bandana Waddle Dee
2) Captain Toad
3) Dixie Kong
4) Inklings
5) Extra: Zelda character, most likely Impa due to her presence in Warriors and almost all 3D titles

Third Party (We only get two in the base game per installment)
1) Rayman
2) Nindie Rep, either Shantae or Shovel Knight

I know some might wonder where Simon is, but I doubt his inclusion in the base roster if limited. We traditionally only get 2 new 3rd parties per Smash and the Smash Ballot seemed to favor Snake, Indie characters, and especially Rayman more than Simon. Plus with Nintendo partnering with Ubisoft a lot now a days and essentially relying on indies for 3rd party support, I think those two get top priority. Konami already has Snake.

As for Echoes, here’s the list

1) Daisy - already shown

2) Octolings - If you have Inklings, you need the villains. With Splatoon being a highly successful new IP, the Octarians should fill a roster slot to bolster its ranks

3) Dark Samus - It’s no secret that Nintendo is pushing Metroid hard, with new titles and Rocket League cross promotion. We haven’t seen Dark Samus yet as an assist, and the Dark Samus color was removed from Samus, so the door is open

4) Extra: Third Party Echoes - Honestly, Sega is really the only one deserving of an echo, as they’ve been partners with Nintendo for years and Sonic is the only third party to be in 3 titles by now. Shadow wasn’t shown as an assist, so his chances are high. If you want other third party echoes though, then Mrs. PAC Man, Ken, Proto Man, Metal Sonic, or Jean all fit, but I’m going to say Sega gets first dibs with Shadow as their pick.

 

[StormC]

I am pretty confident in saying there is not going to be an indie character in Smash Bros., least of all a western one.

 

[Captain Shades]

I am pretty confident in saying there is not going to be an indie character in Smash Bros., least of all a western one.

Don’t be to sure. Snipper Clips already has a song, and Captain Video (an indie character) was in Smash as a trophy along with Rayman. Plus, Nintendo has been standing in a position of promoting indies for years now, like how they cut time out of their E3 show to promote two indies that were coming. Nintendo is trying their hardest to be the ultimate indie hub, so a character in Smash only seems to fit their narrative that indies are treated the best on Nintendo platforms.

Also, if we go by the whole, Ballot is god, which is what people are using to say King K. (A western character) would get in, then Shovel Knight and Shantae were very high up on the poll, showing Nintendo fans want to support indies with Smash.

 

[StormC]

Don’t be to sure. Snipper Clips already has a song, and Captain Video (an indie character) was in Smash as a trophy along with Rayman. Plus, Nintendo has been standing in a position of promoting indies for years now, like how they cut time out of their E3 show to promote two indies that were coming. Nintendo is trying their hardest to be the ultimate indie hub, so a character in Smash only seems to fit their narrative that indies are treated the best on Nintendo platforms.

Also, if we go by the whole, Ballot is god, which is what people are using to say King K. (A western character) would get in, then Shovel Knight and Shantae were very high up on the poll, showing Nintendo fans want to support indies with Smash.

Indies like these have a complete non-presence among Japanese fans (unlike K. Rool). The ballot isn’t god but it will inform Sakurai’s choices. When Sakurai talks about third parties, it’s usually in the context of how influential or iconic they are - he even said after Final Fantasy that they were almost out of notable third party IPs.

Characters like Diddy and K. Rool are in Nintendo owned games and popular (let alone recognizable) in Japan. Shovel Knight et. al doesn’t have that luxury.

 

[Captain Shades]

Indies like these have a complete non-presence among Japanese fans (unlike K. Rool). The ballot isn’t god but it will inform Sakurai’s choices. When Sakurai talks about third parties, it’s usually in the context of how influential or iconic they are - he even said after Final Fantasy that they were almost out of notable third party IPs.

Characters like Diddy and K. Rool are in Nintendo owned games and popular (let alone recognizable) in Japan. Shovel Knight et. al doesn’t have that luxury.

I think you’re being a bit harsh on indies. Like I said above, there is clearly some work going in to represent them. Plus Indies are a big part of gaming as of right now, Nintendo literally survives on them being a part of Switch.

Here, let’s take this past Shovel Knight and Shantae and go for the big boy if you want influential. Minecraft, probably one of the biggest games of this decade and a huge influence on the world building genre started as an indie game and is still considered one.

While I can’t say Shovel Knight and Shantae are the most influential, even though channels like Game Maker’s Tool Kit would disagree as he sees Shovel Knight as a huge influence on how retro style games should be made. I think you underestimate how influential the indie game scene is as I would say indie games are pushing the industry right now, not large corporations. (Minecraft, Fortnite, Meat Boy, and Rocket League are all pretty high profile)

I think Indies stand a huge chance, all of them want to work with Nintendo, Nintendo wants Indies to support the Switch, and fans want an indie character in, so why not include one?

Shovel Knight and Shantae were just huge picks from the ballot, so I listed them

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Inkling and Ridley are confirmed

King k rool - simply get in the same way Ridley did but more than that some data miners finally found the proof that the bayonetta winning thing is a hoax (kind of) so the fan ballot are back to being accurate so clearly king k rool did top 10 easily (if realizable anyway)

Bandana dee - data mine found something on bandana dee (not smash) and some fans cleverly pointed out that bandana dee is suppose to be watching dee fight with the mask he's missing in there and also based on source gaming he's japans second most wanted newcomer the first is king k rool

Ashley - advertisement level is really high considered main character of warioware they can't talk about amiibo use in warioware gold for some reason we know the smash bros wario works so why not talk about it probably means Ashley or some other character has a amiibo but not just any amiibo a smash bros amiibo and popular request in Japan and got a mii costume in the final pack

Geno - this character sakurai wants in super smash bros series owned by square enix but so is cloud and square enix is a little more cooperative this time probably did very well in the ballot especially the costume and ofocarse most of all square enix involved in the ending in smash this time it's the beginning so plenty of time to ask if he can let geno in.

Dixie kong - tropical freeze advertisement wise and probably be a semi-echo of diddy kong (her helicopter hair is the problem for echo status) almost got in brawl with diddy kong as a ice climbers esc duet and hard to believe king k rool will be the only Dk newcomer if it happens

Simon belmont - vergeben leak ofcoarse and plus even without that snake and bomberman is a significant sign and with the bayou conspiracy finally confirmed earlier verge mentioned something about simon did very well in the ballot so this may be the biggest key to why he got in.

Some WTF/Retro rep - not saying this will happen but this is a big tradition of smash brother my money would be on...

Mach rider because of the gun sakurai wanted from that toy he bought the gun highly resembles Mach riders gun and several blogs claim it was for current project and what's was being developed in December 2016 none other than smash ultimate and plus Mach rider is reference in lots of Nintendo games his/her song was in all smash bros games except 64 and most of all sakurai considered Mach rider back in melee and Is probably revisiting his thoughts from before since he considered sukopon for anitem and here's she is as a assist trophy

Pokémon rep - chance this ritual won't happen this time we always end up with a new Pokémon rep each smash but may not happen this time due to squirtle, ivysaur and pichu coming back but it shouldn't stop it I'm not clarifying which Pokémon it will be because it could be whatever gen 7 Pokémon they gave them on the other hand Kanto I see being focused again so maybe a kanto Pokémon like old times heck if gengar that kills two birds with one stone (a ghost rep and popular Pokémon)

I will update the echos later but I will say atleast 1-3 more is my guess

 

[StormC]

I think you’re being a bit harsh on indies. Like I said above, there is clearly some work going in to represent them. Plus Indies are a big part of gaming as of right now, Nintendo literally survives on them being a part of Switch.

Here, let’s take this past Shovel Knight and Shantae and go for the big boy if you want influential. Minecraft, probably one of the biggest games of this decade and a huge influence on the world building genre started as an indie game and is still considered one.

While I can’t say Shovel Knight and Shantae are the most influential, even though channels like Game Maker’s Tool Kit would disagree as he sees Shovel Knight as a huge influence on how retro style games should be made. I think you underestimate how influential the indie game scene is as I would say indie games are pushing the industry right now, not large corporations. (Minecraft, Fortnite, Meat Boy, and Rocket League are all pretty high profile)

I think Indies stand a huge chance, all of them want to work with Nintendo, Nintendo wants Indies to support the Switch, and fans want an indie character in, so why not include one?

Shovel Knight and Shantae were just huge picks from the ballot, so I listed them

Nintendo doesn't "literally survive on them being a part of Switch." They survive the same way they've always survived since the SNES, first party exclusives that you can't get anywhere else. Games like BOTW, Odyssey, and Splatoon 2 that sell millions upon millions of copies. Nevermind that the roster was likely decided on before the Switch even hit store shelves so those games and their success probably amounts to little to nothing.

Also, Sakurai isn't 1:1 with Nintendo's business strategies. He's an artist too. His brain isn't plugged into the Nintendo computer to learn about the next marketing scheme - he isn't even a Nintendo employee. There is certainly overlap but not to this extreme.

In all of 20 years of Smash, with almost 70 characters, Diddy is the only one that was created by westerners. Don't see a scenario where suddenly he goes hogwild to add a bunch of niche third party characters from the west either. Minecraft is about the only game you listed big enough to be on that sort of radar but nobody is actually expecting Steve in Smash as a playable character.

 

[Captain Shades]

Nintendo doesn't "literally survive on them being a part of Switch." They survive the same way they've always survived since the SNES, first party exclusives that you can't get anywhere else. Games like BOTW, Odyssey, and Splatoon 2 that sell millions upon millions of copies. Nevermind that the roster was likely decided on before the Switch even hit store shelves so those games and their success probably amounts to little to nothing.

Also, Sakurai isn't 1:1 with Nintendo's business strategies. He's an artist too. His brain isn't plugged into the Nintendo computer to learn about the next marketing scheme - he isn't even a Nintendo employee. There is certainly overlap but not to this extreme.

In all of 20 years of Smash, with almost 70 characters, Diddy is the only one that was created by westerners. Don't see a scenario where suddenly he goes hogwild to add a bunch of niche third party characters from the west either. Minecraft is about the only game you listed big enough to be on that sort of radar but nobody is actually expecting Steve in Smash as a playable character.

Actually, people are expecting Steve. Remember when Microsoft announced that they’ll let Nintendo use their characters. Plus the fact that Switch has exclusive Minecraft content and is cross platform.

Going off of Nintendo, they are severely lacking in third party, heavily using indie titles to fill in gaps on Switch. Other than Nintendo, Indies are really the only ones making games for the system other than a few people porting old titles and the very occasional cross release.

Plus, how do Indie characters hurt Sakurai being an artist. He can chose from a huge variety of characters as they all have unique attributes and move set potential. Indies being included would be no real surprise honestly. The Smash Ballot championed them, Nintendo champions them, even Smash is including more indie content. He also won’t go hog-wild as only one Rep would get the point across that Smash will market the indie scene.

 

[xpnc]

Newcomers: Inkling, Ridley, Simon Belmont, K. Rool, Ashley, Bandanna Dee, Geno, Isaac

Echoes: Daisy, Dixie, Dark Samus, Chrom, Impa, Shadow

I would be shocked if we got someone not on this list.

 

[8-peacock-8]

Confirmed:
Inkling
Daisy (E)
Ridley

Newcomers:
Simon Belmont
King K Rool/Dixie Kong (I believe the ballot votes will influence this one)
A new echo fighter. (Octoling and Dark Samus as my two predictions)

I honestly don't see much else being left to add to the base game. Maybe another echo fighter, but beyond that I can't really see anything else being believable. I think two completely new characters is already pushing it. But that doesn't mean some last minute echo fighters couldn't be added. I do believe more could be added later as DLC. Rex and Pyra for example.

Indies:
I think the only reason why a Snipperclips song is even in Smash is because of Nintendo publishing the game. And as much as i'd love to have Shantae in the game, I just can't see any indies getting added outside of being generic trophies. (Commander Video was a trophy in Smash Wii U) Even as DLC. Unless a new one appears that makes a huge splash in Japan and is significant on Nintendo consoles. The closest indie to even having a chance is Steve. And Steve isn't even indie anymore since Minecraft is owned by Microsoft.

Third Party Echo Fighters:
I also seriously doubt there will be any third party echo fighters unless thats how they specifically are. (Ken from Street Fighter for example) So I seriously doubt Shadow The Hedgehog would get in as an echo.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Mix of Nintendo and Fans
1) Bandana Waddle Dee
2) Captain Toad
3) Dixie Kong
4) Inklings
5) Extra: Zelda character, most likely Impa due to her presence in Warriors and almost all 3D titles

*glances at own sig* Wait a damn second...that's my exact wishlist.

Err...on topic:

Thinking we'll either get K. Rool OR Dixie rather than both(at least on base roster), and Geno OR Captain Toad, but again not both(at least on base roster). Leaning towards the two I don't support more because of their unique assets in the Mii outfit, and Toad already having an increased role in Peach's moveset.
Impa and Chrom are Echoes, Isabelle is either echo or unique(I can't decide) but I think she's being slept on by a lot of people.

Other realistic possibilities:
Ashley for unique, Octolings for echoes. Although the Octo expansion is new, even back during Splatoon 1 it was clear how everyone loved the Octoling girls. Ashley is super popular in Japan.

A lot of people are saying Shadow is an echo possibility, but I still can't see a third party echo happening for some reason.

 

[AquaSol]

My predictions for remaining newcomers:
King K. Rool
Dixie Kong
Dark Samus (as an echo)
Bandana Dee (not too sure about this one)
Elma
Mimikyu (Obvious gen 7 rep IMO)
Chorus Kids (people are sleeping on Rhythm Heaven HARD)
Simon Belmont
Geno??? Not sure about him

 

[Captain Shades]

Confirmed:
Inkling
Daisy (E)
Ridley

Newcomers:
Simon Belmont
King K Rool/Dixie Kong (I believe the ballot votes will influence this one)
A new echo fighter. (Octoling and Dark Samus as my two predictions)

I honestly don't see much else being left to add to the base game. Maybe another echo fighter, but beyond that I can't really see anything else being believable. I think two completely new characters is already pushing it. But that doesn't mean some last minute echo fighters couldn't be added. I do believe more could be added later as DLC. Rex and Pyra for example.

Indies:
I think the only reason why a Snipperclips song is even in Smash is because of Nintendo publishing the game. And as much as i'd love to have Shantae in the game, I just can't see any indies getting added outside of being generic trophies. (Commander Video was a trophy in Smash Wii U) Even as DLC. Unless a new one appears that makes a huge splash in Japan and is significant on Nintendo consoles. The closest indie to even having a chance is Steve. And Steve isn't even indie anymore since Minecraft is owned by Microsoft.

Third Party Echo Fighters:
I also seriously doubt there will be any third party echo fighters unless thats how they specifically are. (Ken from Street Fighter for example) So I seriously doubt Shadow The Hedgehog would get in as an echo.

Weak list of new comers mate!

I think people really underestimate the Nindies as they’re put. People say they won’t get in due to lack of popularity in Japan, but Little Mac was confirmed to be directed towards an American audience. Also Ridley was from a franchise primarily popular in America. Japan may be the home of Sakurai, but Sakurai knows that a majority of Smash players are American and will throw them a bone. And before people use the, it’s 3rd Party, so harder to get excuse, most Nindie publishers are literally begging Nintendo to use their character, so they would probably give them the license immediately. Hell, even Minecraft, the biggest indie, has Microsoft coming out and saying Nintendo is allowed to use any of their characters.

As for Third Party Echoes, I definitely think they are a possibility, especially Shadow. As we’ve seen, Sega will literally put their characters in anything for publicity, even stuff like LEGO Dimensions, which openly and unapologetically mocks eveything about Sonic. I highly doubt Sega would restrict the usage of Shadow as a character, and since his assist is seemingly gone, and with him being the 2nd most popular Sonic character, I feel he will make it in as an Echo.

I think your list is far to short man, only 5 new comers? Look, I know they’re bringing back every character, but most of them were in Wii U and look identical. The ones that weren’t are either from Brawl (making them easy to port over into Wii U), are clones (so they can use developed models), or were literally in Wii U, just left out due to 3DS. There are only 8 characters returning, so I doubt they took that much time.

*glances at own sig* Wait a damn second...that's my exact wishlist.

Err...on topic:

View attachment 151544

Thinking we'll either get K. Rool OR Dixie rather than both(at least on base roster), and Geno OR Captain Toad, but again not both(at least on base roster). Leaning towards the two I don't support more because of their unique assets in the Mii outfit, and Toad already having an increased role in Peach's moveset.
Impa and Chrom are Echoes, Isabelle is either echo or unique(I can't decide) but I think she's being slept on by a lot of people.

Other realistic possibilities:
Ashley for unique, Octolings for echoes. Although the Octo expansion is new, even back during Splatoon 1 it was clear how everyone loved the Octoling girls. Ashley is super popular in Japan.

A lot of people are saying Shadow is an echo possibility, but I still can't see a third party echo happening for some reason.

To start, I actually mentioned the Octolings as an echo

I can see Ashley, the Wario Ware franchise seemed dead, but due to the 3DS collection coming soon, she could advertise it as well as being a popular pick, so good on you for mentioning her.

To go off your first point, I believe Dixie and Krool will make it. Krool has the popularity to get him in similar to Ridley, but Dixie still has popularity and could represent the most recent title Tropical Freeze. Many DK fans want more representation for the franchise, so two characters isn’t unreasonable, especially since Dixie could be a semi-clone of Diddy, and use the same base model. I feel this Smash will do justice to the usual forgotten picks, as Metroid is being highlighted now.

As for Geno and Captain Toad, I will say Captain Toad will be the choice. He’s popular, has had a bigger role in Mario (especially the new titles), is interesting, and there’s no Square BS to get around. I know Sakurai wanted Geno, but clearly he wasn’t put in due to Square, and with Captain Toad being a popular and unique new character, I see him taking the spot of the new Mario character, not Geno. Also Captain Toad is his own character, so Peach having Toads wouldn’t be weird as he and Toadette are very distinct individuals of the species.

 

[Takasmash]

My Ideas Of Newcomers

King K Rool
Dixie Kong
Ashley
Chorus Kids
Elma
Lip or Mach Rider (There Needs To Be A New Retro)
Simon Belmont
Geno
Rayman

Echoes Fighters
Chrom
Ninten
Medusa
Hilda

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

Unique newcomers:​

King K. Rool
Ashley
Elma
Bandana Dee
Rayman
Lloyd or Heihachi (I think a Namco newcomer is a heavily underrated possibility right now.)

Echo newcomers:​

Dixie Kong (I know she can be unique, but I don't think any series will get two fully unique newcomers in the base game)
Dark Samus
Isabelle
Octoling
Shadow
Maybe another echo...? (Chrom/Alm/Celica? Ken? Ninten? Impa? Not too sure)

DLC newcomers:​

Spring Man
Rex & Pyra
Crash Bandicoot
Geno
Banjo & Kazooie...? (I genuinely believe it's possible but I'm still unsure it would happen)
Gen 8 Pokemon (Getting back all the cut Pokemon might make Sakurai hesitant to include another right away so instead of a 7th gen, a promotional 8th gen ala Greninja released around the time of the 2019 Switch game)

???:​

Simon Belmont...? (I'm more compelled by the Bomberman AT than the Vergeben leak but even so, that could mean nothing. If he's in I feel like it's a 50/50 on base game versus DLC)

 

[8-peacock-8]

Weak list of new comers mate!

I think people really underestimate the Nindies as they’re put. People say they won’t get in due to lack of popularity in Japan, but Little Mac was confirmed to be directed towards an American audience. Also Ridley was from a franchise primarily popular in America. Japan may be the home of Sakurai, but Sakurai knows that a majority of Smash players are American and will throw them a bone. And before people use the, it’s 3rd Party, so harder to get excuse, most Nindie publishers are literally begging Nintendo to use their character, so they would probably give them the license immediately. Hell, even Minecraft, the biggest indie, has Microsoft coming out and saying Nintendo is allowed to use any of their characters.

As for Third Party Echoes, I definitely think they are a possibility, especially Shadow. As we’ve seen, Sega will literally put their characters in anything for publicity, even stuff like LEGO Dimensions, which openly and unapologetically mocks eveything about Sonic. I highly doubt Sega would restrict the usage of Shadow as a character, and since his assist is seemingly gone, and with him being the 2nd most popular Sonic character, I feel he will make it in as an Echo.

I think your list is far to short man, only 5 new comers? Look, I know they’re bringing back every character, but most of them were in Wii U and look identical. The ones that weren’t are either from Brawl (making them easy to port over into Wii U), are clones (so they can use developed models), or were literally in Wii U, just left out due to 3DS. There are only 8 characters returning, so I doubt they took that much time.

Kept my list short because I’m not sure who else they could add. And also based on Sakurai’s words of not to expect a lot.

As for Shadow, I only said that I doubt he’ll be an echo fighter. I can easily see him getting added. (As DLC) But I just don’t understand why everyone wants him to be a clone when he has no reason to be. Plus it’s a waste of what they could do with him.

And finally, I just can’t see any indies being added. I don’t think it would work business wise. Yes groups like Yacht Club and Wayforward are very vocal for the chance to get into Smash. What indie dev wouldn’t be? You can have your small time franchise amongst a set amount of some of the most well know video game franchises ever and it advertises your games to the greater market.

But the lack of any western third parties, plus them being indie, makes me think Nintendo wouldn’t really try to get them beyond music and an a trophy.

Plus Microsoft really wouldn’t care. It’s just another way to get people to buy their consoles and games. Which is probably why we won’t see any of their characters in Smash. (Cross play and this are two very different things)

 

[Captain Shades]

Kept my list short because I’m not sure who else they could add. And also based on Sakurai’s words of not to expect a lot.

As for Shadow, I only said that I doubt he’ll be an echo fighter. I can easily see him getting added. (As DLC) But I just don’t understand why everyone wants him to be a clone when he has no reason to be. Plus it’s a waste of what they could do with him.

And finally, I just can’t see any indies being added. I don’t think it would work business wise. Yes groups like Yacht Club and Wayforward are very vocal for the chance to get into Smash. What indie dev wouldn’t be? You can have your small time franchise amongst a set amount of some of the most well know video game franchises ever and it advertises your games to the greater market.

But the lack of any western third parties, plus them being indie, makes me think Nintendo wouldn’t really try to get them beyond music and an a trophy.

Plus Microsoft really wouldn’t care. It’s just another way to get people to buy their consoles and games. Which is probably why we won’t see any of their characters in Smash. (Cross play and this are two very different things)

To comment on Nindies, I think they are very likely. Nintendo has made it clear that they want to support the Indie scene as much as possible. Taking time out of Directs and E3 for them, allowing Shovel Knight to have an Amiibo, giving them a branding with Nindie, placing Nintendo specific content in some, like the Samus car in Rocket League, and of course hosting events for Indie developers. Nintendo even published Snipper Clips as an indie title for their system.
Smash has already had indie influence, with the Commander Video trophy and now Snipperclips music, so adding a character to Smash is very symbolic as it shows Nintendo will go above and beyond with supporting indie developers, which is an image they are trying to have. I will agree that Indie characters don’t show a gaming mile stone or beloved franchise like other third party characters, but I find them to be more symbolic inclusions to show how far the indie scene has come, as characters like Shovel Knight or Shantae getting into Smash (a huge series) shows the level of success that indie developers as a whole are achieving.

As for Shadow, how different could he really be? I know he has Chaos Control, but ultimately he’s been treated like a Sonic clone for years. Even the most recent title, Forces, has him as a simple Sonic skin. I know he has his own game with abilities, but do you really want to reference when Shadow was using real guns, even Sega knows they F’d up. I don’t get why everyone sees him being an Echo as an insult, he’s been treated like one for years and outside of one move, he really is just edgy Sonic.

As for who they can add, there’s still quite a few reasonable characters;
1) Rayman (Nintendo and Ubisoft are like buddies right now)
2) Celica (can use magic that hurts her, plus she’s loved and represents the newest FE game during Smash development)
3) Bandana Waddle Dee (The 4th member of the Kirby crew at this point, can advertise Star Allies. He placed 2nd in Japan)
4) Spring Man/ Ribbon Girl (ARMS is a new franchise that deserves representation)
5) King K Rool (Recognized World Ballot Winner)
6) Dixie Kong (Popular Kong that can easily be a semi-clone of Diddy, she can also represent Tropical Freeze)
7) Captain Toad (Popular Mario character that has his own side series, plus he is a way of getting Toad in Smash)
8) Xenoblade rep (Depending on development, the most recent character will get in being Rex or Elma)
9) Impa (Zelda hit a new peak with BOTW, and it needs a non-Zelda/Link character, so why not the 4th main Zelda character)
10) Decidueye (He’s the new popular Pokémon in the same vain as Mewtwo, Greninja, and Lucario)

 

[StormC]

Nintendo might want to support indies but that really doesn't mean anything for what Sakurai wants or what he feels fits his vision for Smash. When Little Mac was revealed, there was a lot of "literally who?" sentiment from Japanese fans. But he was still a Nintendo character first and foremost, one with a pretty substantial history with the company dating back to the arcade era, and Sakurai has gone on the record for praising Punch-Out. Even Ridley was well-known, if not popular, among Japanese fans who were happy for westerners (to the point where he was cheekily called Captain America by them).

I honestly have my doubts Sakurai would have even heard of characters like Shantae before the ballot.

 

[FunAtParties]

I'm not totally sold on that Belmont stuff being legit yet, so I'm hesitant on calling anything that includes him a 'realistic look' just yet.

I really have no idea what to expect anymore. Adding all the vets plus Ridley, Inklings, Daisy makes this stuff interesting. Lots of characters have echo chances, Ridely makes it seem like popularity matters more, everything is up in the air

 

[Scicky]

I really don't think there are going to be as many echo fighter's as people are saying. Yeah, there have been some curious omissions of past palette swaps (Dark Samus and Ike's Chrom outfit) but Meta-Ridley has been confirmed as an alt-costume and was also missing from the demo's so that can't be seen as a confirmation. Part of me is just saying that because Dark Samus is super cool though and I'd rather see them be their own character, or at least luigified.

I imagine one of Sakurai's goals, though probably not his primary goal, will be to even out representation between franchises. With that in mind, I'm assuming we get something like this

66 King K Rool (or) Dixie

DK, the oldest represented franchise still producing games, still only has 2 reps, despite having loads of characters to choose from each with a dedicated fanbase. K Rool is more likely but I could honestly see either and would be shocked if at least one didn't make it in.

67 Bandana Dee

Sakurai's baby, unique playstyle, popular. Idunno, just makes sense.

68 Shadow

If any 3rd party franchise is gonna get 2 rep's it's going to be Sonic, I doubt Sakurai would go through the legal hoops and fan backlash to make Shadow an echo fighter though so I'm betting on an original character

69 Ashley

Not only is Ashley popular, but when you look at the existing franchises that have only one rep, there's usually a good reason. Sakurai had to stretch the imagination to even get Villager to be playable, let alone a more specific AC character. Pikmin's pool of potential characters is nearly non-existent, and the room for variation in playstyle isn't exactly huge. ROB, G&W, Duck Hunt, Wii Fit Trainer? Niche-y one off goof picks. WarioWare doesn't have these problems. It has a plethora of whacky characters to choose from that could all do great in Smash, and Ashley is the fan favourite.

70 Geno

Sakurai knows people want Geno, and Sakurai wants Geno. Not only that, but together with Daisy it brings the Mario franchise to the same number of reps as Pokemon. Irrelevant I know, but it strikes me as odd that Mario wouldn't have the most reps.

71 Poochy

This is a joke pick, but there honestly isn't a better pick for a second Yoshi rep that wouldn't be better labeled as a Mario character lol. Plus, he's cute.

72 Simon Belmont

Rumours rumours rumours

73 Lloyd Irving

Looking at what I've got so far, I'm under the impression that we're going to be getting a second Sega rep (Shadow), a second Square rep (Geno), a second Konami rep (Simon), and we already have two Capcom reps, so why not a second Namco rep? Granted, there could be other options for that slot, but I think there's a reason Lloyd got a DLC Mii costume along with some of the other characters on this list.

74 Isaac

C'mon. C'mooon. C'moooon.

75 Some Xenoblade Character IDK

Xenoblade is probably the Smash series most underrepresented franchise in terms of just how many characters there are to pick from, how strong the fanbase is, and the fact that it's still producing games. I'd be surprised if they stop at Shulk.

I don't think all of those will actually get in (especially not Poochy) but I think that's a pretty reasonable list, if not a tad maximalist. I'm not even gonna bother guessing Echo Fighters because there could be anywhere between 3 of them or 10 of them and honestly I don't care.

Ridley
Inkling
K Rool
Rex and Pyra/Elma
Lycanroc
Retro character (lip, Excitebiker, etc)
Ashley
Simon Belmont
Geno

Dixie
Daisy
Dark Samus
Shadow
Isabelle


Top are realistic newcomers (could have put Isaac up there perhaps or a Rhythm Heaven character). Bottom are echos.

Lycanroc would be fun but I really don't think they have the popularity to get in. Expecting Mimikyu or Decidueye if anything, but tbh I don't think we'll be getting a pokemon newcomer this time around. Considering the franchise has 3 returning fighters who've been absent in past games and the highest number of playable characters in total, I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing, even if I do love me some pokemon.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Personally, I'm hoping the CSS is organized using their new introduction numbers. With 9 characters to a row, so that the top row starts with Mario and ends with Luigi. I'm also hoping that Echo Fighters are somehow selected from the same slot as their primary character. Counting Trainer's Pokemon and the Mii Fighters as one slot each, and a Random slot, that gives us a total of 62 slots currently.

That would leave us with only one slot left in row 7. Which I think would be:
Simon Belmont

But, in the spirit of the OP, assuming Echo Characters take up a slot and we're getting 7 slots, I'd go with:
Simon Belmont
Spring Man
Captain Toad/Toadette
Dark Samus(Samus Echo)
Impa(Sheik Echo)
Shadow(Sonic Echo)
Ken(Ryu Echo)

And finally, I just can’t see any indies being added. I don’t think it would work business wise. Yes groups like Yacht Club and Wayforward are very vocal for the chance to get into Smash. What indie dev wouldn’t be?

I wish people would stop calling WayForward an indie developer. They've made games in franchises like DuckTales, Adventure Time, Ninja Turtles, Silent Hill, Double Dragon. They've been around for ages. The Shantae franchise has four games in it spanning 4 console generations now. Just because they Kickstarted a Shantae game doesn't make Shantae an indie character.

 

[Gallowglass]

I'm going with a real conservative number. I'm thinking no more than four newcomers besides Ridley, Inklings, and Daisy. He said that there wasn't going to be that many more newcomers and that he wants to focus on improving the roster. Plus he has to do work incorporating all the characters that were not in Smash for like Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Ice Climbers, etc.. That's going to take time and work to update them. I'm not even going to try to guess who would be in since I'm rather poor at guessing.

I'm sure a lot more characters will be added in DLC.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

For uniques, I could see:

K Rool
Bandana Dee
Simon Belmont
Ashley

Echo:
Octoling
Shadow
Dark Samus
Impa

I would hold out hope that the rest of the strong candidates end up as DLC:
Dixie
Rex/Pyra
Springman
Geno
Captain Toad/Toadette
Isaac
Decidueye
Ken Masters (echo)
(Lloyd Irving and Celica would be my hopefuls with the lowest chances from what we currently know)

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Newcomers: Inkling, Ridley, Simon Belmont, K. Rool, Ashley, Bandanna Dee, Geno, Isaac

Echoes: Daisy, Dixie, Dark Samus, Chrom, Impa, Shadow

I would be shocked if we got someone not on this list.

Pretty much this. These are the absolute most likely that I have seen. The only others I might say have any hope at all are Captain Toad, Rayman, Banjo-Kazooie and Lloyd (costume, 2nd Namco rep.) Spring Man has the best shot at DLC, with a Rhythm Heaven rep and another Xeno rep also being possible here. Though I could see those last two maybe squeaking by into the base game, too.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Edit: Wrong thread

 

[StormC]

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into how the CSS is organized for how many characters we have left. Who knows what the final one would look like.

Also questions like how popular Lycanroc is wouldn't have any bearing when Sakurai was picking characters in all likelihood.

 

[Diem]

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into how the CSS is organized for how many characters we have left. Who knows what the final one would look like.

Also questions like how popular Lycanroc is wouldn't have any bearing when Sakurai was picking characters in all likelihood.

Smash 4's roster morphed in shape to fit the new DLC characters, with the final character you get making it asymmetrical, so you're right that the CSS isn't an indication of remaining slots. I imagine that, after DLC, we'll have between 70 to 80 characters total, so there will be some shuffling, for sure.