A general "what are their chances?" thread

[mezbomber]

This is something I'm interested in, and I thought it would make more sense to start a new thread as opposed to asking the same thing in each individual character thread. I also see a lot of new posts like "does so-and-so still have a chance?" for several different characters...why not make a conglomerate thread for all of them? Also, character threads tend to be flooded with movesets.

So here's my intent: there are several as of yet unconfirmed characters for Brawl. I feel like the ultimate and absolute thing that keeps me addicted to these boards and the dojo is that I want to know the roster. So, I've made a list of hopefuls, and I want to see things like clues that may elude to their inclusion or exclusion. Web articles, interviews, anything like that.

what I'm NOT looking for is info in regards to a characters popularity, playability, movesets, or just stupid assumptions.


here we go: WHAT ARE THEIR CHANCES?

first category: characters on Sakurai's poll

Geno(4)
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Isaac(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Mega Man(2)
Sukapon(2)


second category: veterans

Marth
Roy
Mewtwo
Jigglypuff
Falco
Ness


third category: anyone else

Lucario
Tom Nook (yeah, I know he's in the background...I'm looking for something I don't know)
Mii
Black Knight (or other FE reps)
Midna + wolf Link
Bomberman
Bowser Jr.
Ray 01
Pac-Man





so, any evidence for any of these guys?
and again, please NO HATERS, only contributers, and people who seriously want to discuss this sort of thing.

 

[True Fool]

So, do you want me to state what I believe the chances are for each of these characters?

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

So, do you want me to state what I believe the chances are for each of these characters?

That would fall under the "Assumptions" catergory

 

[mezbomber]

as long as it's not the obvious, sure.

1 - characters on Sakurai's poll have a good chance
2 - Japanese-only characters may not have a good chance without the desire to spread their popularity beyond Japan. (anything eluding to this kind of desire would be helpful)
3 - veterans who appear to be replaced by newer franchise reps may not have a good chance. (i.e. Marth, Ness)

 

[Raikage]

I personally think Ridley and Krystal have very, very good chances. Sakurai knows who is popular and who isn't, he's not stupid. They both came out on top of the poll and they're both characters who would add a lot to Brawl.

Mega Man is the obvious choice for a third party character too. If there is another 3rd party character (And there's a good chance there might not be) it's gunna be Megaman.

 

[Duality]

Sakurai's Poll- Ridley

Veteran- Falco ( Please :[ )

3rd Party- Bomberman and/or Megaman

 

[vydran212]

From the looks of it, Sakurai bases most of the newcomers off of polls, namely, HIS poll. So if my assumption is right, than anyone with multiple votes I'd say has a chance of making this game. Namely, Geno and Ridley have the best chances.

As for veterans, I'm not too sure that Sakurai will be bringing back every one. Sure, there are some shoe-ins, namely Ganondorf, Luigi, and Captain Norris...I mean, Falcon, mainly due to their popularity. But others that weren't so popular and deemed "clones", like Pichu, Roy, etc., might not be in.

 

[volbound1700]

Although I only give him a 50% chance, Dr. Mario has a chance to return. Sakurai apparently loved the Dr. Mario series and there is a small fanbase for him.

 

[mezbomber]

Although I only give him a 50% chance, Dr. Mario has a chance to return. Sakurai apparently loved the Dr. Mario series and there is a small fanbase for him.

I loved Doc in Melee. And with Mario getting the FLUDD, I think Doc could easily get a new moveset (maybe more luigi-fied, but in a different manner than Luigi). Although, I'm not sure how he could co-exist with Mario in the SE...I mean he IS Mario. I've heard that every character will be incorporated into the SE...perhaps there could be exceptions to that, but I would count him out on my loosely based SE rule.

 

[volbound1700]

I loved Doc in Melee. And with Mario getting the FLUDD, I think Doc could easily get a new moveset (maybe more luigi-fied, but in a different manner than Luigi). Although, I'm not sure how he could co-exist with Mario in the SE...I mean he IS Mario. I've heard that every character will be incorporated into the SE...perhaps there could be exceptions to that, but I would count him out on my loosely based SE rule.

Actually, Funny thing is no where do they say that. He could very well be a third brother. (the smart sibling).

 

[mezbomber]

^^^
are you talking about the "all characters being included in the SE" or the "Dr.Mario IS Mario"?

 

[The Legend Of Zelda]

Recently there was a popular thread asking forum members to put forth their opinion on what the likeliest batch of characters is. Of the 50+ entries in this contest, I tabulated how many times each character was mentioned as a likely fighter. Although you've stated you're not interested in a character's popularity, I think their rank on this list corresponds roughly to how likely they might be in Brawl, to the point where one could almost draw a line at some point on this list, and put everything that falls above it in as a character. Personally, I'd draw this line below Ray 01.

In descending order of likelihood:

46 Krystal
46 Ridley
45 Mega Man
42 Captain Olimar
33 Lucario
29 Geno
24 Isaac
22 Animal Crossing Villager
20 Wolf O'Donnell
18 King K. Rool
14 Claus
14 Skapon
13 Midna
13 Micaiah
11 Bowser Jr.
10 Balloon Fighter
10 Black Knight
10 Takamaru
9 Ray 01
7 Mii
7 Stafy
7 Waluigi
6 Tom Nook
6 Black Shadow
5 Bomberman
4 Andy

It's interesting how much different these lists turned out from the usual fantasy rosters, when coupled with a financial reward for maintaining down-to-earth, realistic expectations. Since 50 dollars was promised to the roster closest to what actually comes to pass, many pet favorites fared poorly. Anyway, take those results for what you will; I hope they're of some use to you.

TLOZ

 

[volbound1700]

^^^
are you talking about the "all characters being included in the SE" or the "Dr.Mario IS Mario"?

Doc being Mario

 

[mezbomber]

that's pretty interesting. I've seen that contest thread, but it's nice to have someone add up the tally as you have done.

Skapon...Japanese only, quite obscure anywhere else. But he looks so cool. What could put his priority above others in the Sakurai poll?

edit:
@volbound
I wish he were a third brother. Maybe Brawl can be the first game to approach the subject.

 

[Dhaka]

Recently there was a popular thread asking forum members to put forth their opinion on what the likeliest batch of characters is. Of the 50+ entries in this contest, I tabulated how many times each character was mentioned as a likely fighter. Although you've stated you're not interested in a character's popularity, I think their rank on this list corresponds roughly to how likely they might be in Brawl, to the point where one could almost draw a line at some point on this list, and put everything that falls above it in as a character. Personally, I'd draw this line below Ray 01.

In descending order of likelihood:

46 Krystal
46 Ridley
45 Mega Man
42 Captain Olimar
33 Lucario
29 Geno
24 Isaac
22 Animal Crossing Villager
20 Wolf O'Donnell
18 King K. Rool
14 Claus
14 Skapon
13 Midna
13 Micaiah
11 Bowser Jr.
10 Balloon Fighter
10 Black Knight
10 Takamaru
9 Ray 01
7 Mii
7 Stafy
7 Waluigi
6 Tom Nook
6 Black Shadow
5 Bomberman
4 Andy

It's interesting how much different these lists turned out from the usual fantasy rosters, when coupled with a financial reward for maintaining down-to-earth, realistic expectations. Since 50 dollars was promised to the roster closest to what actually comes to pass, many pet favorites fared poorly. Anyway, take those results for what you will; I hope they're of some use to you.

TLOZ

You put Geno under Captain Olimar and Lucario?
This list = fail...sorry dude
I'll accept the other 3 as being above Geno, even though Sakurai's list says differently, but Olimar and Lucario don't deserve to be above Geno...
(insert /facepalm here)

 

[Zevox]

You put Geno under Captain Olimar and Lucario?
This list = fail...sorry dude
I'll accept the other 3 as being above Geno, even though Sakurai's list says differently, but Olimar and Lucario don't deserve to be above Geno...
(insert /facepalm here)

Dude, that isn't a list of his opinions, its a list of statistics. Read his whole post - those are the number of mentions each of those characters recieved in [thread=120617]this thread[/thread], where people posted what think the final roster will be, with the reward of $50 offered to whoever is closest (if they're closer than the OP's roster).

Zevox

 

[Raikage]

Why? I don't think Geno is very likely myself.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Why? I don't think Geno is very likely myself.

You got to be joking, Sakurai himself was interested in the character and asked around about him...

If Sakurai is interested in a character, his chances are VERY good

 

[Raikage]

It depends if Square lets them use the character though, and I doubt they would.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

It depends if Square lets them use the character though, and I doubt they would.

...and why exactly wouldn't they...

They let them use Geno in Mario & Luigi Super Saga without any problems...

It's not like they are using the character for anything else

 

[SteveTV]

I know we're trying to stay away from assumptions, and speculations so I'll try my best to source why I think the things I do.

1.)I'm going to agree with most people here and say Geno, Ridley, and Krystal have the best chances. Geno has been in my eye more lately due to the fact that square only holds partial rights to him(source: http://blogs.ign.com/phoenixdragoon/2007/10/22/69626/ ). Which also(in my mind) bumps Megeman up in probability. Looking at the list from this thread: http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=71872

the characters who were recommended multiple times are:

King Dedede(5) - CONFIRMED!
Diddy Kong(4) - CONFIRMED!
Geno(4)
Ike(4) - CONFIRMED!
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2)
Jeff(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2) - CONFIRMED!
Mega Man(2)
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2)


all suggestions from Smash DOJO.

the poll is now closed.

Yes I realize it's where you got yours from, but like Raikage said, Sakurai's a smart guy. He's going to put in characters that are more popular while not overlooking the games that also deserve representation.
I've been reading SamuraiPanda's translation a lot lately (http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=72642)

#201-210: Sakurai says in response to an email asking only for well-known characters (like Mario, Link, etc.) to appear in SSBB, "Asking only for popular characters to appear in Smash...doesn't get me excited"

From this I personally think he'll cover most of the top because it's smart business, and grab the more interesting characters on his list as well. But what is interesting to Sakurai? Well, it's a safe bet to say we're going to get another WTF character. Now I don't make video games, but I can imagine that like all jobs you see similarity in things that others don't. Example: movie critics and writers probably see a lot of similarities in most lead characters(and of course plots,etc.). Meaning Sakurai probably looks at video game characters differently and maybe thinks a lot of them are pretty much the same.


2.)Again from SamuraiPanda's Translation

#81-90: Ah yes, my big translation. This is the translation that started this all. I cut down the original post a bit because it was so long:

After my initial quick translation that I posted on GameFAQs, I was bombarded with people shouting "LIAR! NOT TRUE! STFU TROLLER!" so I decided to post a full translation.

"In order to prove you naysayers wrong, here is a full, nearly exact, translation of what he said. My own personal commentary is provided in the [ ].

DISCLAIMER: Sakurai uses very ambiguous language in his response. So try not to nitpick the English in this passage too much.

"Sorry. I'm not very smart but I can't tell a lie so I'm just going to write it.
As for the previous game's characters, some of them will disappear. Definitely.

For the last game, we struggled to assemble 26 characters. We tried really hard and unintentionally reached that number.

But, although you'll see characters from the last game, this time, on a significant scale [Yes, this is exact], they will be remade. It is this sort of thing [This sentence is slang, so there really isn't a good English translation for it].

For argument's sake, no matter how much staff there is, with just manpower we can’t just put in everything, and as my own job [read: workload] does not decrease, there is a limit.

But, the consumer’s desired things to be included [There really isn’t a good English equivalent for that word] are weeeeell understood. You will be [he doesn’t give a subject to the sentence, so I’m using ‘you’] happy regarding the adapted characters moving around on different stages as well [The email he is responding to complained about how there are only 3 stages from SSB that are stages in SSBM, so I guess this infers that there wont be a whole lot of previous stages].

So, we will once again struggle to create characters. I cannot promise you anything other than that.”

And that is exactly what Sakurai said. Hope you guys enjoy the info ^_^ "

People definitly will be gone. Out of the Veterans you've listed I think Mewtwo and J.puff have the best chances of staying(though PT may hurt that). I wouldn't mind the rest of them leaving for replacements such as:

Marth-Ike
Roy-Micaiah(preferably) or Black Knight
Ness(though I love him)-Claus
Falco-Krystal

IF all the characters are going to play a part in the SE(of course I don't know this) these changes would seem to make sense. Due to differences in games like Ness and Lucas being from different times would make for difficult story telling.

3 - veterans who appear to be replaced by newer franchise reps may not have a good chance. (i.e. Marth, Ness)

However, if he wanted to Sakurai would find a way. And of course Falco could easily coexist in this world.

3.)These can be speculated in many different ways, and I don't think we'll find much proof for any of them for a while. Out of all of the listed I would like Bomberman the most. Something about kicking bombs across the floor seems like a lot of fun.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

#201-210: Sakurai says in response to an email asking only for well-known characters (like Mario, Link, etc.) to appear in SSBB, "Asking only for popular characters to appear in Smash...doesn't get me excited"

I have to say, I agree with Sakurai...

Back in the Day with 64, I got really excited at the idea of unlocking Characters I had never heard of...back then that was Ness and Captain Falcon

 

[faceCHEEKwall]

What are the chances of Toadstool being involved? The characters from the Mario series are the most diverse and (obviously) deserve first dibs on a Brawl spot.

I'd say Toad's chances were NOT good at first. But now Mario had FLUBB replace one of his moves. This means that Princess Peach's move (when she brings out Toad) could easily be replaced too! Toad's chances are improved tenfold.

I don't understand why he's not higher on any lists. Also, his B + DOWN move could be pulling a shy guy out of the ground.

This brings up another point. What about the core Mario franchise characters? Are we missing anyone obvious?

 

[Dhaka]

What are the chances of Toadstool being involved? The characters from the Mario series are the most diverse and (obviously) deserve first dibs on a Brawl spot.

I'd say Toad's chances were NOT good at first. But now Mario had FLUBB replace one of his moves. This means that Princess Peach's move (when she brings out Toad) could easily be replaced too! Toad's chances are improved tenfold.

I don't understand why he's not higher on any lists. Also, his B + DOWN move could be pulling a shy guy out of the ground.

This brings up another point. What about the core Mario franchise characters? Are we missing anyone obvious?

Whats a FLUBB?

Also, considering one of Peach's moves uses Toad, as seen in pictures and in the E for all Demo, there isnt much of a chance he will be a PC too.

 

[DJ Arcatek]

Rayman isn't in the list...

Also uh, Krystal, Olimar, Ridley should be in also.

 

[faceCHEEKwall]

Whats a FLUBB?

Also, considering one of Peach's moves uses Toad, as seen in pictures and in the E for all Demo, there isnt much of a chance he will be a PC too.

FLUBB is the water gadget Mario uses in Sunshine for GC.

Bummer about that screenshot, I didn't see that one. But yes, that makes Toad's chances go back down near zero.

 

[Dhaka]

FLUBB is the water gadget Mario uses in Sunshine for GC.

Bummer about that screenshot, I didn't see that one. But yes, that makes Toad's chances go back down near zero.

He missed that completely didnt he?

Ok to end this jest completely... its FLUDD man...lol

 

[faceCHEEKwall]

He missed that completely didnt he?

Ok to end this jest completely... its FLUDD man...lol

That is terribly ironic. I really "flubbed" on that one.

Dictionary.com

 

[mezbomber]

@SteveTV
brilliant post!! That's the kind of citations I was hoping to see when I created this thread.

I had heard a couple things regarding newcomers, and that's that Sakurai wants to add more villian/antagonist/anti-hero type characters...also, more female characters. I'm sure some others have heard this, too, but can anyone find some sources?

 

[Dhaka]

That is terribly ironic. I really "flubbed" on that one.

Dictionary.com

quote of the day right there...

that was just purely awesome man lol.

 

[2007]

This is something I'm interested in, and I thought it would make more sense to start a new thread as opposed to asking the same thing in each individual character thread. I also see a lot of new posts like "does so-and-so still have a chance?" for several different characters...why not make a conglomerate thread for all of them? Also, character threads tend to be flooded with movesets.

So here's my intent: there are several as of yet unconfirmed characters for Brawl. I feel like the ultimate and absolute thing that keeps me addicted to these boards and the dojo is that I want to know the roster. So, I've made a list of hopefuls, and I want to see things like clues that may elude to their inclusion or exclusion. Web articles, interviews, anything like that.

what I'm NOT looking for is info in regards to a characters popularity, playability, movesets, or just stupid assumptions.


here we go: WHAT ARE THEIR CHANCES?

first category: characters on Sakurai's poll

Geno(4)
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Isaac(2)
Kawasima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Mega Man(2)
Sukapon(2)


second category: veterans

Marth
Roy
Mewtwo
Jigglypuff
Falco
Ness


third category: anyone else

Lucario
Tom Nook (yeah, I know he's in the background...I'm looking for something I don't know)
Mii
Black Knight (or other FE reps)
Midna + wolf Link
Bomberman
Bowser Jr.
Ray 01
Pac-Man


so, any evidence for any of these guys?
and again, please NO HATERS, only contributers, and people who seriously want to discuss this sort of thing.

This list is epic failure for leaving out C. Falcon, Ganondorf and Dr. Mario. Anyways,

Ridley(4)-the Ridley Theme
Krystal(3)-read a rumor that someone was voicing Krystal in Brawl. the site's reliability is questioned.
Windwaker Link(3)-no evidence excpet that gay rumor (disproved by our good little friends popo and nana)
Animal Crossing MC(2)-no evidence, since the symbol means nothing. They made a DS symbol. does that mean that there's going to be a Nintendo DS as a playable character


Marth-rumored removal because of rumored Ike costume
Roy-no evidence either way
Mewtwo-no evidence either way
Jigglypuff-Jiggles is Japan's favorite Pokemon
Falco- near given
Ness-might be removed because of Lucas/Lucas in Melee rumor
Ganondorf-near given
C. Falcon-given. don't deny it.
Luigi-given. more o 'da same.
G&W-the missing symbol number (13) is 95% lkely going to be his
Young Link-likely to be removed.
Pichu-very likely to be removed.
Sheik-rumor that she and Ganondorf were back, nothing proved though.

Midna (alone) added because of greater likeliness; also the twilight protals, but that might be a reversal (decrease in chance).

anyone deleted from the list was either a "who the frick?" or no evidence.

=2007=

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Your calling it failure for leaving veterans out? This is suppose to be about NEWCOMERS

 

[Andy4Brawl_911]

Recently there was a popular thread asking forum members to put forth their opinion on what the likeliest batch of characters is. Of the 50+ entries in this contest, I tabulated how many times each character was mentioned as a likely fighter. Although you've stated you're not interested in a character's popularity, I think their rank on this list corresponds roughly to how likely they might be in Brawl, to the point where one could almost draw a line at some point on this list, and put everything that falls above it in as a character. Personally, I'd draw this line below Ray 01.

In descending order of likelihood:

46 Krystal
46 Ridley
45 Mega Man
42 Captain Olimar
33 Lucario
29 Geno
24 Isaac
22 Animal Crossing Villager
20 Wolf O'Donnell
18 King K. Rool
14 Claus
14 Skapon
13 Midna
13 Micaiah
11 Bowser Jr.
10 Balloon Fighter
10 Black Knight
10 Takamaru
9 Ray 01
7 Mii
7 Stafy
7 Waluigi
6 Tom Nook
6 Black Shadow
5 Bomberman
4 Andy

It's interesting how much different these lists turned out from the usual fantasy rosters, when coupled with a financial reward for maintaining down-to-earth, realistic expectations. Since 50 dollars was promised to the roster closest to what actually comes to pass, many pet favorites fared poorly. Anyway, take those results for what you will; I hope they're of some use to you.

TLOZ

You just boosted my self esteme Andy is on the list from Advance Wars.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

That list says Andy has less a chance than Waluigi

 

[Andy4Brawl_911]

That list says Andy has less a chance than Waluigi

Yes, is that bad... im actually glad someone else acknowledged Andy though.

 

[mezbomber]

This list is epic failure for leaving out C. Falcon, Ganondorf and Dr. Mario. Anyways,

Ridley(4)-the Ridley Theme
Krystal(3)-read a rumor that someone was voicing Krystal in Brawl. the site's reliability is questioned.
Windwaker Link(3)-no evidence excpet that gay rumor (disproved by our good little friends popo and nana)
Animal Crossing MC(2)-no evidence, since the symbol means nothing. They made a DS symbol. does that mean that there's going to be a Nintendo DS as a playable character


Marth-rumored removal because of rumored Ike costume
Roy-no evidence either way
Mewtwo-no evidence either way
Jigglypuff-Jiggles is Japan's favorite Pokemon
Falco- near given
Ness-might be removed because of Lucas/Lucas in Melee rumor
Ganondorf-near given
C. Falcon-given. don't deny it.
Luigi-given. more o 'da same.
G&W-the missing symbol number (13) is 95% lkely going to be his
Young Link-likely to be removed.
Pichu-very likely to be removed.
Sheik-rumor that she and Ganondorf were back, nothing proved though.

Midna (alone) added because of greater likeliness; also the twilight protals, but that might be a reversal (decrease in chance).

anyone deleted from the list was either a "who the frick?" or no evidence.

=2007=

I intentionally left out Captain Falcon because it seems pretty obvious despite official confirmation. Same with Luigi. Ganondorf and Sheik were left out because I assumed that that interview with the (twilight princess?) creator was fairly common knowledge amongst the boards by now. And I also assumed that Game&Watch's (strongly assumed) inclusion was also fairly widespread.

I also left out Y.Link, Pichu, and Doc for their (seemingly) obvious removal...but again, if anyone finds evidence to strengthen their chances...by all means share it with us.


Yes...that news of Krystal seems to be gaining some ground.
as for debating the inclusion of an AC or DS character...I believe that belongs in one of the "icon theory" threads, and I would like to stray from that kind of debate here.

 

[mezbomber]

sorry for double posting... my edit was taking forever to save.


Edit:

Your calling it failure for leaving veterans out? This is suppose to be about NEWCOMERS

Well, I did leave it open for some of the more debateable veterans (again, that's why Falco is on my original list, whereas Capt.Falcon is not.)


and to clarify some things...that other list that has characters such as Waluigi and Andy is merely a tally from several SWF members predicted roster. The number doesn't reflect their chances, it just states on how many peoples' rosters they appeared.

bump

 

[Roy-Kun]

sorry for double posting... my edit was taking forever to save.


Edit:

Well, I did leave it open for some of the more debateable veterans (again, that's why Falco is on my original list, whereas Capt.Falcon is not.)


and to clarify some things...that other list that has characters such as Waluigi and Andy is merely a tally from several SWF members predicted roster. The number doesn't reflect their chances, it just states on how many peoples' rosters they appeared.

I agree with the post.

A little adivce: Try the button of "Go Advanced" if it takes forever to save, then just click save changes, I do that when quick edits take loooong time to save.

 

[SteveTV]

OK, so this isn't really surprising, but J. puff is in. I first heard of this in GreenKirby's thread
"It's amazing how people can't keep their mouths shut."
Brawlhttp://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=123401

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmxj-cly1Dk

The actor who voices Snake was interviewed. Normally, this wouldn't mean much but at 2:52 when asked which Brawl character he would like to beat up, he said Pikachu and.......










JIGGLYPUFF!!!!

Thanks GreenKirby.

So counting PT as three we're up to 5 Pokemon. Personally, I think about PT as one because of the Stamina feature, but who knows how that will play. With Pokemon being very successful I wouldn't be surprised to see more of them. Especially if Sakurai thinks of PT as one. Maybe he put the stamina feature in so he could justify more Pokemon. Not to mention there isn't a character like him.
I don't so much care for Pokemon, but I am definitely curious about PT. Also I'm happy J.puff is back. Definitely a unique character.