A Complete Smash Switch Roster Prediction (Returning and New)

[Spirit Toons]

Hello, my name is Spirit Toons, and I'm a new member to the smash community on Smash Boards. I wanted to make a predictions list that goes over every characters' chances in the new Smash Bros., so I didn't know if this would fit into New Comers, or Veterans, so the choice is yours Smash Boards. But anyway, lets start the list.

To Start I'm going to give out some history of Nintendo to put my choices into more context as I feel that each Smash game takes on the identity of a particular era of Nintendo.
Super Smash Bros.: The N64 Era mixed with Snes and Gameboy
Super Smash Bros. Melee: It's the same N64 era mixed with Snes and Gameboy as it came out at the begining of the Gamecube's life
Super Smash Bros. Brawl: Focused around the Gamecube/ Game Boy Advanced era, with early DS and Wii era material
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U/ 3DS: Focused around the Wii and DS era with early Wii U and 3DS content.

As you can see, the Smash titles usually take heavily from the previous era as well as the first year of the newest system, so my guess is that the new title will take heavy inspiration from the Wii U and 3DS era while taking some key notes from the first year of Switch and the first 2 years of Nintendo's mobile efforts (IOS and Android)

10 Key Events/ Titles that will Likely Change Smash

1. Breath of The Wild's Release: a complete game changer for both Nintendo and Zelda, the game will become the next Ocarina of Time and have the same heavy influence on the Smash roster that the previous game-changer did.
2. Super Mario Odyssey's Release: Just like Breath of the Wild, this game has shaken up Nintendo and will have a heavy influence on Mario just like 64 did.
3. Pokemon Go, Sun and Moon, and the Revival of Pokemon in Popular Media: Yes, it's here, no matter what your feelings are on the app it has definitely brought Pokemon back into the main stream and seems to have made Gen. 1 more prevalent than ever, which should have big effects on Smash.
4. The Return To Dreamland Syndrome, How a Pink Puff Got A Ton of Popularity: No matter what your feelings are for the previous generation, you can't deny that some franchises have exploded in popularity thanks to the 3DS, and one of them would be Kirby which is doing fantastic at the moment making tons of sales, and turning Kirby into a true heavy hitter for the big N, unlike his disappointing and poorly lead DS and Wii era days.
5. Awakening Saved, Yet Divided a Franchise, and the Rise of Heroes: Now this will be long, yes the Fire Emblem community is divided making IS have to fan pander to the max to appease both new and old fans. With Fire Emblem being a heavy hitter, it will take a pretty high priority, and with Fan voting contests and backlash, expect to see some different choices.
6. ARMs and Splatoon, Sushi and more, New Franchises Galore: Nintendo has many new IPs now, so expect some characters from these new heavy hitters.
7. Killing of a Brand: Nintendo is very aware of the bad name associated with the Wii brand, so many ties are being cut with Wii U going farther into the distance for them, and games with Miis becoming non-existent, even dying such as the case with Miitomo, the Wii death will probably be very apparent in the roster.
8. Nintendo's Little Witch: Obviously Nintendo is moving forward with their plans to make Bayonetta their key M-Rated Franchise, so she should play a big role in Smash
9. Third Parties Galore: Third parties are needed by Nintendo, so they need good relationships, some I'm sure third parties will be heavy in Smash, mainly for; Sega a close partner and friend of the company, Ubisoft the makers of the great recent Mario crossover, Square-Enix who is developing Switch exclusives, and close associate Namco-Bandai who has always worked with Nintendo. Bethesda may also get some love, along with Konami for the new Bomber man, and of course the new Nindies will get some representation. As for Capcom, they are a mixed bag since they tried to avoid Switch and have really been hard on Nintendo lately, unlike the other companies mentioned.
10. The Finale Change, New System, New Managment, and New Thinking: To end off the list, I think it's only fitting to mention the Switch and the future of Nintendo. Nintendo is now trying their hardest to break tradition in many of the Switch's titles, opting for new experiences opposed to many console generations very formulaic approaches, so Smash might break away from norms to fit Nintendo's way of thinking. Many traditions like the 12 characters may for the first time be broken for a fully new experience, like titles such as Breath of The Wild. I wanted to point this out as I'm sure many Smash purists may take offense to some choices due to tradition, but since Nintendo is trying to break away, I can see some changes happening.

Alright, now that history lesson is over. For those who don't know the purpose, it is because Smash is a marketing machine and a platform to represent Nintendo in the newest era, so many decisions are directly tied to the company, such as putting in characters from the latest game, or matching a style such as Brawl's more casual focus for the more casual Wii. If the Switch is believed to be the big change for Nintendo, that means Smash has to change with it. Welcome to the new era everyone and enjoy the list!

The Smash for Switch Complete Roster List
To start, this list will go over every character from the previous Smash titles, along with some I believe will make it in, I will list their chances and reasons why. I will use indicators to show their chances. Some history from above may apply along with additional information to make choices.
Here are the indicators for the list
Basically a Guarantee
Highly Likely
50-50
Not Likely
Removed
Changed Move set or design
Changed Default Outfit
Costume Now
​

Super Mario Bros.
Mario - Mario is the mascot of Nintendo and will come back as he was confirmed, I believe he will change to fit the design of Odyssey as Cappy will become essential in his Move set.
Luigi - Luigi will come back as he is a main character of the mascot franchise, his move set may be changed to accommodate the designs of Luigi's Mansion, which has recently come back on Nintendo 3DS.
Peach - She is another main character and staple of the franchise, since she really hasn't done anything new, her design should stay the same.
Bowser - Being the main antagonist, Bowser is sure to come back, and since Odyssey introduced a new design and moves, he may start pulling from that title. He could now use hats in his moveset like Mario can.
Rosalina - While she is a side character, she has made a name for herself in recent years and the Smash community uses her a ton, so I doubt she's going anywhere. She hasn't done anything to warrant a move set change, so she'll stay the same and represent the Galaxy era of Mario
Bowser Jr. - I feel that Jr. will come back unchanged as he only uses the Clown Car now, but his prominence in the series has dwindled since the Wii U era started becoming a Mario Party exclusive character and not being in main line titles anymore, but since he was revived with Switch and is included in more events, I can easily see him becoming a main stay again, making his spot warranted.
Dr. Mario - There is no reason to include Dr. Mario as he is a clone that is the exact same character, so I believe he will become a costume for Mario if anything.

Captain Toad [New Comer] - Captain Toad is a brand new character that not only has his own game, but is also a big part in modern Mario titles, being in Galaxy 1 + 2, 3D World, and Odyssey. Toads have also been wanted in Smash forever now, so why not include the Captain. He can have a unique play style as he is unable to jump, and has many unique items.
Waluigi [New Comer] - Waluigi has tons of popularity right now and Nintendo seems to know with his prominence in Aces marketing. Waluigi can easily represent the Mario spin-off titles. I'm going to give him a 50-50 chance though, since he isn't a main character and Sakurai seems against him.
Daisy [New Comer] - Daisy is popular enough to get in Smash, but seeing as her move set potential is lacking if Waluigi is included, I believe she'll make the perfect Peach costume.
Toadette [New Comer] - Toadette is highly likely, but is very similar to Captain Toad, even in reasons, so I believe she'll be a costume for him.

Yoshi's Island
Yoshi - Yoshi is the main character of his franchise, which has recently made a come back, so I'm sure he'll be there. There was nothing new for his moveset

Wario Ware/ Wario Land
Wario - Wario is the main character of his own franchises, but his movest has always been off, so I believe some changes will be made to make him fit his games closely

Donkey Kong County
Donkey Kong - The main character of his own franchise that has taken off recently, and one of Nintendo's first characters, Donkey Kong will definitely come back. Retro's titles only seem to highlight DK's move set, so no change is needed.
Diddy Kong - Sidekick to DK, and popular Smash character, Diddy Kong shouldn't leave in this title. Retro's games literally base him off Smash, so no move need change.

Dixie Kong [New Comer] - Dixie is a very popular character for the Country games and since she's used in modern titles, her chances are pretty high, unlike Krool who has been forgotten.

The Legend of Zelda
Link - Link is already confirmed, and has the BOTW design, so I believe his moveset will change to incorporate aspects of the game, like the glider.
Zelda - I believe Zelda will change to a more modern design, but not BOTW. I believe Hyrule Warriors will be the main inspiration for her outfit and play style due to her actually fighting in that game unlike BOTW, and she also has a Sheik design in that game to match.
Sheik - Like Zelda, the Warriors games added a ton to Sheik, so I believe Sheik will come back with a new design from those titles. Sheik will mainly come back to represent Ocarina of Time though, since that was an important title for Zelda.
Young Link - Just no, he has a replacement now.
Toon Link - He represents a whole sub-section of Zelda, so I'm sure he'll be back. I feel his moveset will change to represent his titles, like Spirit Tracks. Hyrule Warriors also gave him a brand new weapon to use.
Ganondorf - They can't possibly kick out the main antagonist of Zelda, and since fans have been beging for a new moveset, I feel an all out Warriors Ganon with swords and the long hair, maybe even the trident, will happen.

Impa [New Comer] - I tried to think of a BOTW character to use, but none of them were really a big part of the game, so I feel that Impa deserves the position as she is a main character throughout the series, and can also take moves from Warriors.

Pokemon
Pikachu - The mascot of Pokemon, and the new game being released, he'll be in. He has no new moves though.
Pichu - hated in almost every regard, there is no hope for a return.
Mewtwo - Being the first legendary, his popularity is huge and with Pokemon focusing on Gen 1, I'm sure he won't be left out again. No new moves to use.
Charizard - Another popular Gen 1 pick, Charizard was considered the best starter Pokemon evolution, so I think he'll be back. No new moves to use.
Jiggly Puff - While Gen 1 is back, Jiggly Puff has never been popular and she has almost been left out of every smash. Really only staying true to the original is keeping her around and her joke status, but if any of the original 12 are getting removed, it's her.
Lucario - While not a Gen 1 Pokemon, and I'm sure some are wondering why he's coming back, Lucario has solidified himself as a Pokemon mascot, not only coming from the last height of Pokemon gen 4, he is also the poster boy of Pokken. No changes are needed
Greninja - While Greninja was a big Pokemon for a while, his popularity has severely died off since his Smash debut, and I feel he'll be replaced by the new big Pokemon. Reasons he would stay would be to have non-Gen 1 Pokemon, but since Pokemon is going back to Gen 1 his need is dwindling.

Decidueye [New Comer] - The new popular Pokemon, he has to be in Smash Switch, as the only reason he wouldn't be included would be the new Let's Go Pokemon taking the slot.
^ New Pokemon [New Comer] - Mystery Pokemon from Let's Go Pikachu/Evee, would take slot to market new games. Decidueye won't make it if this Pokemon is included.

Kirby
Kirby - Main character and Sakurai's creation, may get new copy ability powers to represent newer titles.
Meta Knight - Yet another creation from Sakurai, he will make it for being a main character. He doesn't have any new abilities though.
King Dedede - A main antagonist for Kirby and Sakurai creation, he will make it in, but may have some new moves like Buff Dedede as a final Smash.

Bandana Dee - With Kirby's new rising popularity, a 4th character should come, and since Bandana dee is a main character now, the spot will go to him as he provides new moves using both the parasol and the spear. The only reason for not making it in would be Sakurai bias as he didn't make Bandana Dee into the character he is today.

Fire Emblem
Marth - He's the mascot of the franchise and loved by smash players. He hasn't really been in any new titles that would change his moves, but recently with FE Warriors his design changed, so I can see him losing the chest plate and having different shoulder pads and a hair style to match. He could use a better looking face too. One new outfit may be the groom outfit from Heroes and Warriors as well as Warriors promoted look.
Robin - As the main character as the game that started the revival, I'm sure Robin will be back to represent Awakening. Robin may have new costumes based on Grima, the Warriors promoted skin, and maybe some Heroes looks.
Ike - He's got a unique move set and was placed as the number 1 male in the series during Heroes' polls, so he'll be back. He'll also keep the same design, with possible costumes being the Brave and Legendary Ike costumes from Heroes.
Lucina - I believe Lucina will return due to Awakening's impact and her being the 2nd most popular female. she is also a secondary mascot to Marth at this point. She will most likely be a costume for Marth. Lucina may also have new costumes such as her masked Marth design and the Brave Heroes/Promoted design.
Roy - While polls say he's loved, many say it's only because of Smash and since Roy has no other claims to fame, unlike Lucina, and is a clone, I think he will be absent again.
Corrin - While in the highest selling game, you can't avoid the controversy surrounding the character as many people hate Corrin and Fates. Since Corrin's game isn't new anymore and Fates is looked down upon now, I beleive Corrin will be removed in favor of other FE reps.

Lyn [New Comer] - Lyn is used as old fan bait nowadays, appearing in multiple FE spin-off titles just to appease fans. She has 5 Heroes alts and is in Warriors as the sole character from FE 7. She's also the number 1 female in the series, so I feel her inclusion is inevitable.
Celica [New Comer] - Celica is from the newest entry and is the more popular character between her and Alm, so I think her inclusion is highly likely with only the Switch title getting in the way as Smash always markets the newest FE title.
^ New FE Lord [New Comer] - Just like the New Pokemon, if a new character can be made in time to promote the newest title, then they'll be the new rep, so Celica won't make it in this situation.

Metroid
Samus - Samus has recently come back and with new dodge moves added in Samus Returns, her move set will be changed to be faster and be able to take opponents head on. Her design will also change to fit Samus Returns.
Zero Suit Samus - As a big part of Samus now and a smash character with a huge following, I'm sure the Zero Suit will be included with no changes.

Ridley - With Metroid's big return happening, I think Ridley will finally be included as he seems to be getting smaller. He will be based on the Samus Returns design.
Galactic Federation Marine - Because the new spin-off ties into Prime 4, I'm sure the Galactic Federation plays a big part in that game, so maybe the Marines from Federation Force will be used to bring the Prime style into Smash. The design may be a mix of Federation Force and Returns so they don't stand out.

Star Fox
Fox - He's the main character and a Melee favorite. The games don't lend themselves to new moves either so no change, except for the outfit which includes a new belt, completely black gloves, and Star Fox patch in Zero.
Falco - Another main character in Star Fox, and Melee favorite, Falco will play the same, but have his Zero design which includes new details on the jacket and a new belt that matches Fox's.
Wolf - A character left out of Smash 4, Wolf is still really popular and wanted to return, and since Star Fox has a new entry, maybe they'll add more characters? If he returns he'll have the Zero Design instead of Brawl's.

Slippy [New Comer] - Slippy could join as a joke character and use the turrets from Guard if included. He would use his Zero design if included. But due to Zero being hated, having a new character might not happen.

Pikmin
Olimar - He's the main character and Pikmin is getting a 4th installment, so his inclusion is necessary. I'm going to say no changes at all as Olimar is up to date for at least now
Alph - He'll just be a costume for Olimar again.

New Captain? [New Comer] - Pikmin 3 introduced new captains, so if Pikmin 4 is the same, then Olimar will have a costume of the new character.

Animal Crossing
Villager - Animal Crossing is very popular, and even got an app, so Villager will be back to represent it.

Isabelle [New Comer] - It is possible for her to join as the franchise is big enough for 2, but she could turn out to clone-ish to be a character, even if they use spin-offs like Happy Home Designer for her moves.

Mother/ Earth Bound
Ness - He's the main character of a franchise with a cult following, so he'll stay with no new additions.
Lucas - While loved, he is a clone from a game not released outside of Japan, so no need to include him right away.

F-Zero
Captain Falcon - A mascot and a major Smash favorite, Smash made him so he needs to come back. No move set changes are necessary.

Kid Icarus
Pit - Being the main star of a Sakurai title, he's guaranteed a spot, along with Uprising being relatively recent, and Pit needing no move set changes, he'll be back.
Palutena - Being another one of Sakurai's favorites, and a major star in Uprising, she'll be back, but her moveset may be flipped around as we don't know if customs will return, so customs may become default.
Dark pit - I would say costume or gotten rid of, but Sakurai created him and said he couldn't be a costume, so thanks to bias he might return.

Xenoblade
Shulk - Many say he'll leave, but He's like Marth for Xenoblade, being the mascot even if he only appears in a few or one game. Shulk earned his right to be in the game, and his franchise is definetly big enough to get additions instead of replacements.

Rex and Pyra - Xenoblade may become the new Pokemon or Fire Emblem in terms of bringing in characters from the latest game, so since Xenoblade 2 is the most recent, the main duo of Rex and Pyra should make it in.

Splatoon
Inklings [New Comers] - The big new IP for Nintendo had to have characters, and Inklings are already confirmed.
Octolings [New Comers] - Being rivals to the Inklings, I'm sure they'll make it in, but due to similarities they'll be a costume.

ARMS
Spring Man [New Comer] - Like Splatoon, ARMS is also a new big IP from Nintendo, and I'm sure they'll market it with a new character in Smash and since Spring Man is the mascot he'll be chosen.
Ribbon Girl [New Comer] - The next mascot for ARMS, Ribbon Girl, should be a costume for Spring Man.

Other (Retro or Obscure Franchises)
Mr. Game and Watch - A historical character with a huge following, he'll be back as he's unique and a favorite.
R.O.B. - While original, R.O.B. only has a few unique moves and most despise him. His one claim to fame is getting the NES on store shelves, but afterwards he's done nothing. R.O.B. is odd, so I gave him a 50-50 chance as he's not popular enough to stay, but has history.
Duck Hunt - Original, Funny, and Loved by the community while having a similar history to R.O.B., so he'll stay.
Wii Fit Trainer - She isn't well loved by the community and has ties with the Wii brand, which Nintendo wants to avoid, so she might be cut.
Miis - Same problem as the trainer, but Miis allow players to create their own character, so that might boost them up a bit.
Little Mac - He isn't hated, nor is he adored, Mac really has nothing going for him except a large American audience and a unique play style that can easily be taken by Captain toad.
Ice Climbers - I can't garuntee they'd have a spot due to the cut in 4, but chances are high if the Switch can handle 16 character at once.

Bayonetta
Bayonetta - being Nintendo's M-rated game, I'm sure Bayo will make her way back in as Nintendo wants to promote her series as much as possible.

Third Party
Sonic The Hedgehog - Sonic is Sega's representative and since Sega and Nintendo are close, I'm positive that the hedgehog will be back. As for new moves, why not use the boost as a side special or Tails as an up special.
Cloud - Square has been very good to Nintendo lately, so I believe Cloud will stay.
Pac-Man - Namco and Nintendo have always been close, so Pac-Man returning seems like a given
Mega Man - I feel uneasy about Mega Man as he wasn't that good in 4 and Capcom isn't exactly friends with Nintendo right now, doing the bare minimum and mainly supporting PS4.
Ryu - Same as Mega Man, but worse as he isn't a classic character Nintendo fans crave.
Snake - Konami hates Metal Gear, so even if Konami works with Nintendo, it ain't happening. Plus the art style isn't suited for him.

Ubisoft's Rayman or Rabbids - Both have a high chance as Ubisoft has been loyal to Nintendo and created a crossover title with Mario, so one of them at least will be in.
Bomberman - a random comeback with R, Konami may allow Nintendo to use Bomberman in Smash.
Shovel Knight - The Nintendo indie has to come as he would promote all indie games.

Soo, that's my list, comment below what you think!

 

[Ignoritus]

I question your definition of the word "Guarantee".

 

[Idon]

I question your definition of the word "Reasoning"

 

[Spirit Toons]

I question your definition of the word "Guarantee".

I question your definition of the word "Reasoning"

I changed up the wording and removed reasoning. I just wanted to give out the likelihood of many characters for the new game, how did I do besides the critiques. Did any reasons make sense?

 

[Ignoritus]

I changed up the wording and removed reasoning. I just wanted to give out the likelihood of many characters for the new game, how did I do besides the critiques. Did any reasons make sense?

I think you're a bit too generous to Decidueye personally. I view the owl as downright unlikely, and certainly not "almost guaranteed". He's a Pokemon of middling popularity, with no special marketing presence, that as far as I can tell has only been pushed a ton in the Smash community because they draw parallels between him and Greninja. I don't think he'd be a bad fighter but it seems like this is just another case of the Smash community collectively hyping each-other over a specific character who really has nothing going for them.

Similar goes for Rayman/Rabbids. Both are not as big of names as most of the previous third party characters (especially the launch ones), with the Rabbids being downright detested by a lot of people. Rayman is a possibility sure, but I would call him far from near guaranteed.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Looks right to me. If this was the new Smash roster, I'd be happy.

 

[Spirit Toons]

I think you're a bit too generous to Decidueye personally. I view the owl as downright unlikely, and certainly not "almost guaranteed". He's a Pokemon of middling popularity, with no special marketing presence, that as far as I can tell has only been pushed a ton in the Smash community because they draw parallels between him and Greninja. I don't think he'd be a bad fighter but it seems like this is just another case of the Smash community collectively hyping each-other over a specific character who really has nothing going for them.

Similar goes for Rayman/Rabbids. Both are not as big of names as most of the previous third party characters (especially the launch ones), with the Rabbids being downright detested by a lot of people. Rayman is a possibility sure, but I would call him far from near guaranteed.

Decidueye is a character I don’t care about personally, but for marketing purposes, I bet Nintendo would pick him as he’s the mascot of the most recent game, and the big, new Pokémon is always guaranteed to get in, which is why Greninja is in Smash, even though his popularity seems very low, especially now. Decidueye is the new Mewtwo for now until the next Pokemon kicks him off his thrown in the next entry. Decidueye is there to market Sun and Moon as Pokemon are put in to market games and movies, not because they’re loved by fans.

As for Rabbids, it doesn’t matter how much people detest them, Ubisoft is a major third party that Nintendo is building trust with and since they need third parties, Ubisoft will most likely get a mascot in Smash. The Rabbids just had a major crossover with Mario that I’m sure both Nintendo and Ubisoft want to push for massive sales, so Rabbids being in Smash would help secure popularity.

Sadly Smash isn’t community driven, but marketing driven to help boost sales of Nintendo products. That’s the reason for Bayonetta being the last rep in Smash 4, as Nintendo wanted more sales. The community has some input, but Smash is really just a big advertisement, so all character choices should be viewed as what would be the most profitable, and Decidueye and Rabbids would rank in profits for their respective titles.

 

[Almand]

In regards to Waluigi and Daisy, I would say that Sakurai is either going to:
1. Bump up Waluigi to a newcomer, while Daisy is an Assist Trophy (or just a palette swap/clone of Peach, which wouldn't be horrible).
2. Keep Waluigi as an Assist Trophy and make Daisy a newcomer (my preference, tbh; Daisy is my most wanted character).
3. Keep Waluigi as an Assist Trophy, but also make Daisy an Assist Trophy (or palette swap/clone).

It just doesn't feel logical that he'd include both of them, since they'd both be largely based on Sports (unless, of course, Sakurai devotes Daisy solely to Strikers/Baseball while Waluigi is Tennis/Olympics, or something to that nature, which also doesn't seem very likely in my eyes). Especially since Captain Toad is so likely to be a newcomer, and 3 new inclusions would move the Fire Emblem rage to the Mario franchise.

 

[Spirit Toons]

In regards to Waluigi and Daisy, I would say that Sakurai is either going to:
1. Bump up Waluigi to a newcomer, while Daisy is an Assist Trophy (or just a palette swap/clone of Peach, which wouldn't be horrible).
2. Keep Waluigi as an Assist Trophy and make Daisy a newcomer (my preference, tbh; Daisy is my most wanted character).
3. Keep Waluigi as an Assist Trophy, but also make Daisy an Assist Trophy (or palette swap/clone).

It just doesn't feel logical that he'd include both of them, since they'd both be largely based on Sports (unless, of course, Sakurai devotes Daisy solely to Strikers/Baseball while Waluigi is Tennis/Olympics, or something to that nature, which also doesn't seem very likely in my eyes). Especially since Captain Toad is so likely to be a newcomer, and 3 new inclusions would move the Fire Emblem rage to the Mario franchise.

I actually addressed this. Daisy could be a new character, but I put her under the costumes category as I feel that if Waluigi gets in, she’ll be a costume for Peach. I gave them both 50-50 chances though as Sakurai seems to hate Waluigi judging from his assist trophy reveal for Smash 4 on Miiverse. Daisy is just usually forgotten. Both have a chance though as the Wii U and 3DS era has created many dedicated fans for both. And since Mario is Nintendo’s top franchise, more characters seems like a given

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Sadly Smash isn’t community driven, but marketing driven to help boost sales of Nintendo products. That’s the reason for Bayonetta being the last rep in Smash 4, as Nintendo wanted more sales. The community has some input, but Smash is really just a big advertisement, so all character choices should be viewed as what would be the most profitable, and Decidueye and Rabbids would rank in profits for their respective titles.

Smash isn't just a commercial... It is a game series in its own right. The first priority for the developers is to make a good game. The marketing boost is an amazing bonus, but I don't think this is the right perspective to take when talking about Smash development.

Crossover franchises are tricky. If you make a good one, it gives a push to everything involved. But a bad one is a costly mistake that can ruin potential for growth of the franchise itself, and might even blow back on the constituent franchises. Hell, even something like Marvel Vs Capcom Infinite proved that if you push a crappy roster for nakedly obvious marketing reasons, the results don't end well. Sakurai knows this, and has always stated that his first goal in designing a roster is if he can make a good fighter out of a proposed character/franchise, NOT in some misguided attempt at advertising flailing series.

If advertising was the only factor, you can bet we'd never get characters like Duck Hunt or Wii Fit Trainer or Game+Watch. And Captain Falcon and Ness would have been long gone. There's clearly more going on than 'what's most profitable?'.

 

[Spirit Toons]

Smash isn't just a commercial... It is a game series in its own right. The first priority for the developers is to make a good game. The marketing boost is an amazing bonus, but I don't think this is the right perspective to take when talking about Smash development.

Crossover franchises are tricky. If you make a good one, it gives a push to everything involved. But a bad one is a costly mistake that can ruin potential for growth of the franchise itself, and might even blow back on the constituent franchises. Hell, even something like Marvel Vs Capcom Infinite proved that if you push a crappy roster for nakedly obvious marketing reasons, the results don't end well. Sakurai knows this, and has always stated that his first goal in designing a roster is if he can make a good fighter out of a proposed character/franchise, NOT in some misguided attempt at advertising flailing series.

If advertising was the only factor, you can bet we'd never get characters like Duck Hunt or Wii Fit Trainer or Game+Watch. And Captain Falcon and Ness would have been long gone. There's clearly more going on than 'what's most profitable?'.

When it comes to new comers, Smash is usually an advertisement, which isn’t a bad thing, not in the slightest as it keeps the franchise fresh and represents the new generation we are going into as it promotes many modern titles. What I’m trying to say is that most of Smash’s roster is primarily to promote modern franchises, which is why many franchises like EarthBound and F-Zero get stuck with 1 character in the base roster, while Fire Emblem gets 4. Smash gets away with marketing tactics due to keeping characters and bringing in at least 1 Retro character, which is what Wii U did, with the only non-marketable new character being Duck Hunt. (Wii Fit Trainer is marketable as the Wii brand was going strong, and the Wii Fit franchise got a new entry the year before Smash was released.) If you look at every character new to the roster, they all have marketability.

Rosalina - In the recent Galaxy games + 3D World
Bowser Jr. - Him and the Koopalings promote the New Super Mario Bros titles
Little Mac - Punch Out on Wii can still be qualified as a modern title as it was on the last system being only 2 years behind
Robin - promotes Awakening
Lucina - also promotes Awakening
Corrin - Promotes Fates
Greninja - Promotes X and Y as well as the anime
Villager - Promotes New Leaf
Shulk- promotes Xenoblade Chronicles which came out 4 years before
Palutena - Promotes Uprising
Dark Pit - Promotes Uprising
Pac Man - mascot of a third party, which promotes Namco Bandai
Mega Man - while not a mascot, his inclusion paints Capcom in a positive light only helping the company
Ryu - Promotes Street Fighter V
Bayonetta - Used to gain attention for her so more sales will come to Bayonetta 2
Cloud - Square was already remaking FF 7, so it helps in supporting the project.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

It's not that I think marketability is a bad thing. It's just that you're wrong about that being the point of the game. It is a game in its own right. It is USING the popularity of these other franchises to sell ITSELF. Not the other way around.

Your own examples kind of prove this. Almost none of those characters could be considered 'promoting' a game, since those games already came out and made 90% of their sales already. Smash 4 most certainly didn't suddenly inspire a bunch of people to buy a Wii to play Mario Galaxy because Rosalina was a newcomer...

Corrin, Greninja, and MAYBE Ryu/Cloud are the only ones that would have any chance of having a notable effect on future sales of future games.

Smash exists as a celebration of successful characters, not a commercial for them. It DOES have some cross-promotional ability, yes! But that's not its main function by any stretch. It might appear that way because the series represented in Smash are successful (the big secret being: that's WHY they were chosen for Smash).

 

[Spirit Toons]

It's not that I think marketability is a bad thing. It's just that you're wrong about that being the point of the game. It is a game in its own right. It is USING the popularity of these other franchises to sell ITSELF. Not the other way around.

Your own examples kind of prove this. Almost none of those characters could be considered 'promoting' a game, since those games already came out and made 90% of their sales already. Smash 4 most certainly didn't suddenly inspire a bunch of people to buy a Wii to play Mario Galaxy because Rosalina was a newcomer...

Corrin, Greninja, and MAYBE Ryu/Cloud are the only ones that would have any chance of having a notable effect on future sales of future games.

Smash exists as a celebration of successful characters, not a commercial for them. It DOES have some cross-promotional ability, yes! But that's not its main function by any stretch. It might appear that way because the series represented in Smash are successful (the big secret being: that's WHY they were chosen for Smash).

Sorry for any miscommunication, but I never said it was the point, I said that new comers are usually in to advertise. I will agree that Smash is a celebration of successes, but I am still going to argue that many characters are chosen due to marketability for either advertising their game or get more people playing Smash. If Smash wasn’t about marketability than characters like Krool should be in as they are widely successful, but they aren’t due to lack of modern appearances.

Smash works like any fighting game crossover, just look at Injustice 2, which is filled with Batman characters because more people know them.

Smash is the same in that it promotes the big franchises and gives a mention to smaller ones that aren’t active. New characters are almost solely picked because they can either promote a game to gain more sales, or can get more sales for Smash with their inclusion. Characters like Rosalina were picked because their the big new character of their franchise, making people want to buy the game to use them and entice the unaware to check them out and buy their games.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Hmm... I think you're conflating notability with marketing. Rosalina is in the game because she's popular and notable. She doesn't exist to advertise Mario Galaxy because Mario Galaxy has already made its sales and doesn't need advertising (at the time that Smash 4 came out, it was already a generation past!). Most of the newcomers are like this. They may do SOME promoting with very new characters like Greninja/Corrin (and Pit's revival in Brawl, and Roy in Melee), but even in those edge cases Sakurai has stated they weren't added for advertising purposes, but because he liked the series/creators/characters and believed they would add something worthwhile to Smash Bros.

The fact that Marth and Roy sparked interest in Fire Emblem in the west as if it was a commercial is a happy accident, but definitely not the foremost consideration for adding new characters to Smash.

I -do- understand the reasoning for viewing character selection in this way, though. Notability and Marketability have a lot of correlative overlap. Looking at market trends can help you more objectively pinpoint which characters are more notable. And, as I said earlier in the topic, I think that lead to a very realistic list of probable characters! ...I just hesitate to agree with any argument that relies solely on this logic for 'evidence'.

 

[Ignoritus]

Rosalina - In the recent Galaxy games + 3D World
Bowser Jr. - Him and the Koopalings promote the New Super Mario Bros titles
Little Mac - Punch Out on Wii can still be qualified as a modern title as it was on the last system being only 2 years behind
Robin - promotes Awakening
Lucina - also promotes Awakening
Corrin - Promotes Fates
Greninja - Promotes X and Y as well as the anime
Villager - Promotes New Leaf
Shulk- promotes Xenoblade Chronicles which came out 4 years before
Palutena - Promotes Uprising
Dark Pit - Promotes Uprising
Pac Man - mascot of a third party, which promotes Namco Bandai
Mega Man - while not a mascot, his inclusion paints Capcom in a positive light only helping the company
Ryu - Promotes Street Fighter V
Bayonetta - Used to gain attention for her so more sales will come to Bayonetta 2
Cloud - Square was already remaking FF 7, so it helps in supporting the project.

This is very dubious

Rosalina, Bowser Jr., Little Mac, Shulk, Palutena, Dark Pit, Pac Man, and Mega man are allegedly "promoting" games that came out years in advance. That's not how marketing works. You claim Bayonetta was included for marketing purposes yet she was literally voted in by the playerbase.

Don't get me wrong, character additions for marketing purposes do happen, but I think you're being unrealistically pessimistic by trying to paint every newcomer as a marketing ploy.

 

[Spirit Toons]

I also said that the characters promote Smash as well to quote the top two.

Smash almost always picks characters from the previous generation that are big because they are not only icons of the previous era, as they lead to help market Smash more, while maybe getting more people interested in games.

What I’m trying to say is that you should expect character choices to fall in line with the most modern entries for Smash as characters that are from generations prior with no modern incarnation are almost guaranteed to be left out unless they are a Retro character, which seems to be taken by mascots, not side characters of franchises already in.

Many people request Krool, but I doubt he’ll make it in due to a lack of any substantial appearances after 64. But a character like Decidueye will probably make it in because he would come off the heals of Sun and Moon.

Also in regards to Bayonetta, I think many question her inclusion, as many sites that were calculating votes had many different characters that came before her, and painted the picture that Krool was dominating with Wolf being another contender that was higher than her. People also question her as her development period seemed really short, so my guess is that the Smash Ballot votes went for this entry.

I want to reiterate, that Smash is more than a commercial, but looking at character rosters, you can see trends and how the bigs of the early part of the generation and prior always seem to get in. It makes speculation fun as you have to look at the newest titles since the last Smash and see what characters the company would want to push. Maybe I’m wrong about Krool as he did have huge backing in the poles, but if I were to go with my gut feelings, Dixie Kong would be in beforehand as she is in modern titles, giving her an edge over the forgotten Croc.

 

[Ignoritus]

s many sites that were calculating votes had many different characters that came before her, and painted the picture that Krool was dominating with Wolf being another contender that was higher than her. People also question her as her development period seemed really short, so my guess is that the Smash Ballot votes went for this entry.

These polls are almost 100% the time taken from heavily biased sample sets that do not reflect the community as a whole. The audience Nintendo reaches by personally putting out a poll and the audience reached by members of the Smash community putting out a poll to other members of the Smash community are very different.

 

[Spirit Toons]

These polls are almost 100% the time taken from heavily biased sample sets that do not reflect the community as a whole. The audience Nintendo reaches by personally putting out a poll and the audience reached by members of the Smash community putting out a poll to other members of the Smash community are very different.

I still think there’s reason to question, as Bayonetta isn’t known for amazing sales, so when comparing her to heavy hitters like Mario or in this case DK, she shouldn’t have stood much of a chance as Bayonetta isn’t only a niche character, but an M-Rated character which many avoided as she didn’t seem feasible. Plus the fact that Bayonetta 2 was struggling in sales recently during the ballot it’s kind of a miracle that she’d be so popular to be put in Smash and get her name out.

We can also look at wording like that she was feasible, meaning some got the shaft before she made it in. And the fact that only Europe voted her the highest makes me believe something is up as if Nintendo was going to be bias, won’t popularity of characters in Japan matter the most or America, which seems to have the highest attachment to Smash. The situation seems very convenient to me and that Nintendo made the final decision to gain more sales for Bayonetta 2.

 

[TheZoologist]

No Banjo-Kazooie? That makes me a saaaaad panda.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Please use this thread for your roster.

Locked.