I think another reality check that people commonly disregard, is the fact that when arguing for a characters inclusion, you must also be able to argue the other side and acknowledge the fact that there are things going against particular characters.
Logic works both ways, and I happen to see a lack of it from many people when it comes to this game. Not even just this site but in general. I know people who logically believe that Sonic The Hedgehog will get 3 more characters in the next game or that Anime characters could make it.
And then there are people who argue simply for a character's inclusion, but never accept reasons why they won't be. For example, take Waluigi's supporters. I have seen situations where good points are posed for his inclusion, however, when there are ideas brought up against his inclusion, they are disregarded as "illogical" when in fact they really aren't that crazy. I myself wouldn't really mind Waluigi, but would much rather have Paper Mario. I understand that Paper Mario is essentially Mario, and i accept that as something against him. Many other speculators do no such thing, and simply disregard these facts, sometimes then arguing that other characters with the same cons have a better chance simply because of other factors. Or just because a character is "popular" means that they will without a doubt get in before another character. After logically reviewing the pros AND THE CONS, it is completely different than just with the pros.
Well theres my rant for the day i suppose lol