Because speculation is a process and I change my thoughts and opinions when new information comes up. That's literally the scientific method: making conclusions based on present information and changing them when things shift significantly enough. My bachelor's was zoology, my Master's public administration. Both fields can be very trial and error and success in both heavily depends on opening yourself to new trains of thought and approaches. That's kind of the irony because it's an honest method and requires swallowing your pride, allowing yourself to come to conclusions you don't necessarily want. Bottom line: the purpose of speculation is not to never be wrong. If you're afraid of being wrong, then you severely limit yourself. They're afraid, I'm not: simple as that.