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Survivor: Gabon - featuring Melee champion Ken

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Myst007_teh_newb

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http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2008/12/jeff-probst-b-1.html

Just in case anyone missed the Probst blog about this episode. What with all of the "Ken iz teh deadzorz." comments in this topic, I completely forgot how fail Crystal was at these challenges.

Favorite moment of the episode: Crystal trying so hard to prove her physical prowess that at the end of the reward challenge she actually attempted to dunk a ball on a four foot goal...that she towered over...and still missed.

Have to agree with Probst there.
 

nuro

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This post is just my speculation. Do not read below if you feel it will spoil you.

Susie and Sugar have practically no friends at Ponderosa. Meanwhile, Bob and Matty have quite a few. I think Ken can still win but he needs to get Matty and Bob outt. After that it is GG for Ken.

Matt HAS to get voted out first. The reason for this is because if Bob gets voted out Matty + Sugar alliance keeps Matty in the game. Again, Matty isn't good for final three.

This is probably what Ken's plan is going to be. He will team up with Bob and Susie to vote out Matty. Then Ken will make up something to get Sugar into thinking Bob is a threat (he really is a threat to all of them at this point).
If he can't accomplish this he can't win. Simple as that.

I think Bob will actually vote against Matty next episode. Matty is the biggest threat to Bob right now. If Matty doesn't get immunity he is going home. Bob may also think Ken is still on his side so he wont worry about Ken and try to possibly take him into final three. Bob probably wont trust Sugar next episode. Remember, she made him play that fake immunity Idol against Randy and Bob was pretty pissed at her for that. Plus, Sugar was very sneaky at the last tribal when she gave Matty the Idol so even more reason not to trust her. And by not trusting her I think Bob is more likely to trust Ken.

Susie is going to flop to either Ken+Bob or Sugar+Matty. Whatever she flops too will count. I don't know who she has more trust towards.



But immunity will probably throw this all off course unfortunately.
 

RoyalRook

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Ken will win, he has to win...if not because of that Sugar psycho chick, the game is already over. What do we have to argue about? It's pretty much over without sugar, and she just lost her only usefulness -- the immunity necklace. Bob is still old, and Suzie is way too ugly for the jury, Matt is too cocky, sugar has too many enemies in the jury. The game is over, I will give your over 9000 spreads to announce Ken as the odd on dead favorite.
-- Themasterofthesquareroots
 

-__-

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GenericKen

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Ken has a chance, but I'd say it's only 5-7%.

I'm not convinced that Ken has very many banked jury votes.

Ken:
Crystal
Maybe Corrine

Matty:
Randy
Suzie (she's almost certainly out)
Bob (must be voted to the jury if ken's got a chance)


That leaves Marcus and Charlie, both of whom Ken personally backstabbed and the latter of whom heard an ugly rumor that Ken called him an epithet.


So it's agreed, Ken needs both Bob and Matty out to have any chance of winning.
 

toasty

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I've avoided this thread all night and finally I was able to watch the episode ^_^

Dude.

Heart.

Racing.

And WTF @ Ken completely showing how vulnerable he's feeling, openly and foolishly discussing plans the way he is. Lost a LOT of footing tonight. It all went downhill after he believed that ******** story out of desperation [his speech before the previous tribal and his reaction to Corr not playing the idol...ugh, bad times.]

Squanders.

Now the jury will have so little faith in Ken...it's bad enough that his chances of winning were ALREADY limited to getting to the final three with Sugar and Suzie/Crystal. Now he has to hope that Matty/Bob don't win immunity while the others take out the threats >_>

ugh. this blows.

the finale should be fun though =D
 

infomon

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Suzie states in one of the extra scenes that she's definitely siding with Matty and Sugar. She sees them as nicer people, that Ken's entire game has been sneaky.

There goes their only chance, pretty much, unless something crazy happens. Hopefully, Bob realizes that he has no place with Matty and Sugar, and is able to come up with something epic. But I don't see how.
 

Praxis

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Wow. I really, really hate Sugar after this. 0.o

Seriously. She's so stupidly gullible, then holds grudges and acts extremely self righteous as she gets rid of people.
 

Praxis

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It's amazing how she makes faces as people are getting voted out though. She's just got this mean streak at tribal...like the popular kid at high school.

Sigh.

With Crystal on the jury, and if Sugar makes final 3, I'm pretty sure Ken will beat Matty in a jury vote. Corinne will go Ken too. So will Susie (if she's there) and Bob. Marcus and Charlie could go either way, Randy will vote Matty.

However, Bob will win if he goes to final 3. His entire old alliance will vote for him, as will Sugar or Susie if they are with him (though I think Susie might side with Ken, I'm not sure on that) and Matty.

Ken needs to get rid of Bob to win, but Bob's his best hope for surviving to final 3...gah
 

Turbo Ether

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Everyone that voted along with Ken the entire time are just as sneaky as him. He's just the one that orchestrated the strategies.

Also, Randy probably won't vote for Bob.
 

Deoxys

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And WTF @ Ken completely showing how vulnerable he's feeling, openly and foolishly discussing plans the way he is. Lost a LOT of footing tonight. It all went downhill after he believed that ******** story out of desperation [his speech before the previous tribal and his reaction to Corr not playing the idol...ugh, bad times.
[...]
ugh. this blows.

the finale should be fun though =D
At least I'm not going to be as sad if Ken doesn't win since he dug his own grave with that misplay.
 

GenericKen

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Wow, the official CBS message boards are pretty ****ing horrifying:
http://www.cbs.com/forum/posts/list/30719.page


It makes me wonder whether second place is worth a national reputation for being untrustworthy, amongst total strangers who seem three steps away from lynching you.

I gotta wonder what's in the CBS contracts that shields them from liability. "Anti-Cyber-bullying" seems to be popular legislation nowadays, and I could see much worse coming from those forums. Not that any of them seem particularly competent, but still. Corrine doesn't deserve that kind of ire.
 

Ryanarius

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ken's best bet is the following I think.

Bob wins immunity gives it to ken. Bob is voted out but is feels all warm and fuzzy for undoing his misdeeds.

Ken wins immunity. Suzie voted out. I say suzie just because she doesn't have enough screen time for final 3.
 

Yuna

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Bob will win. He has 4 people who like him at Ponderosa. As long as Bob makes Top 3, he'll win. He has 4 out of 7 votes, that's a majority. Unless Randy took offense to Bob's little joke on him, but Bob can just explain to him that it was a desperate play to make friends with Sugar, which in the end paid off. And it's not like they had any other options.

Marcus, Charlie, Randy and Corrinne. Who out of the remaining 5 will they vote for do you think? That's right, Bob. Suzie has no loyalties to anyone, so her vote could befall anyone.

Matty would probably not vote for Ken. He's apparently been gunning for them for a while now ("Since day one" allegedly, but that's not true). Bob would probably not vote for Ken, knowing Ken tried to double-cross him. Sugar definitely wouldn't vote for Ken.

So Ken has Crystal... and that's it. Even if Ken gets Suzie (somehow), that's just two votes. If he gets überlucky, he'll get Matty's vote too (that is if both Suzie and Matty are out of Final 3), but that's 3 vs. Bob's 4.

Sugar's been very nice, too. And she helped "the good guys" out in the end, so that probably won her some points, but she made enemies of Corrinne and Randy, so she probably doesn't stand much of a chance.

Matty's nice, but I don't think anyone on the current jury and the projected future jury has any loyalties to him. Suzie has 0 votes.

So Ken is screwed unless he gets really lucky, gets into Top 3 (somehow, despite now being up against the new alliance of Bob, Sugar and Matty)(consecutive immunity wins?) and manages to snag himself some extra votes through sweet-talking (everyone knows he's been double-crossing, backstabbing and blindsiding people, so it'll take some mighty sweet talking).

I can see Ken making Top 3. I don't see him winning, though. He's just made too many enemies while everyone else has made too many friends. It's not like two reasons ago when the Final 3 was two backstabbers, one of which was an honest snake, and one totally random chick no one really made friends with.

Ken is up against Bob. Bob. Bob's a shoe-in. Sugar and Matty know that Bob's dangerous, but Matty sure as hell doesn't want Ken in Final 3 and neither does Sugar now. They'll pick having the "right guy" (in their minds) win over going to Final 3 with someone they view as a snake and risking him winning.

Bottom line is, even if Ken makes Top 3, he's most probably not going to win.

Of course, this is just me speculating.

ken's best bet is the following I think.

Bob wins immunity gives it to ken. Bob is voted out but is feels all warm and fuzzy for undoing his misdeeds.

Ken wins immunity. Suzie voted out. I say suzie just because she doesn't have enough screen time for final 3.
Or Bob, cushy in his new alliance of Good vs. Evil could just not win immunity. Therefore, he has no immunity to give. Therefore, Ken will have to face elimination with Bob, Matty and Sugar voting him out.
 

Turbo Ether

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I knew Matty and Sugar would eventually break Ken. Matty survived because they needed his vote. Sugar survived because she had the idol for nearly the whole game. In hindsight, Sugar would have been the most logical person for Ken to form his strongest Bond with. Ken allied with one of the weakest players period, for some reason.

I think Ken could beat Bob in F3, since Randy does not like Bob. Bob is only guaranteed 3/7 votes. Corinne also presumably favors Ken over everyone else except Bob.

Ken should not have stated that he would take Bobs idol and betray him, since he needs Bob's trust. However, it was smart for Ken to tell the others that Bob would potentially give him the idol, as that's probably why they voted out Crystal instead of Ken.

Sugar and Suzie are extremely likely top 3, but have zero chance of winning. Actually, i'm curious how Ken+Crystal would vote in counsel.

Overall, since Ken is very likely to lose, I would cheer for Bob in the end.
 

Yuna

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I think Ken could beat Bob in F3, since Randy does not like Bob. Bob is only guaranteed 3/7 votes. Corinne also presumably favors Ken over everyone else except Bob.
People will see his backstabbing antics in tribal. They will know what he does behind the scenes (well, some of it).

Randy does not like Bob, but he does not like Kenny either, from what I could tell. He especially disliked Crystal and Kenny was Crystal's closest ally. Corinne favors Bob over Ken.

Bob has 3 guaranteed votes. Ken has 1 (Crystal) and a possible vote (Randy?). That's it. Bob still leads, hands down.

Ken should not have stated that he would take Bobs idol and betray him, since he needs Bob's trust. However, it was smart for Ken to tell the others that Bob would potentially give him the idol, as that's probably why they voted out Crystal instead of Ken.
Or not. If Bob had given Ken the necklace, he would've been voted out.

Sugar planned it all out. She was hoping Bob was going to keep the necklace so she could use the idol for Matty. I think they just disliked Crystal more than they disliked Ken.

Remember, the necklace is handed over before the vote. Maybe Sugar just didn't want Bob to have to go back on his word or something, who knows.

Sugar and Suzie are extremely likely top 3, but have zero chance of winning. Actually, i'm curious how Ken+Crystal would vote in counsel.
Suzie has 0 votes. And I see absolutely no way for her to make Top 3. Unless she forges an unlikely alliance with Sugar + Matty or Ken + Bob.

I see Bob, Sugar and Matty forging an alliance for Top 3. Suzie is just worthless filler who doesn't really do anything. Well, she did win that one immunity challenge.

Overall, since Ken is very likely to lose, I would cheer for Bob in the end.
I've been cheering for Bob (at least as one of my favorites) ever since he made his first fake idol.
 

Psychoace

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I'm going to laugh my *** off is suzie pulls this **** out, no one has a reason to hate her and if bob gets voted out it would put her in pretty good contention I think. No one has a reason to hate her, she's been the deciding vote before and could be once again on this vote. If she joins up with sugar, bob, and matty then ken is pretty much ****ed. He needs to do some serious smooth talking or win the rest of the immunity challenges.
 

Yuna

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I'm going to laugh my *** off is suzie pulls this **** out, no one has a reason to hate her and if bob gets voted out it would put her in pretty good contention I think. No one has a reason to hate her, she's been the deciding vote before and could be once again on this vote. If she joins up with sugar, bob, and matty then ken is pretty much ****ed. He needs to do some serious smooth talking or win the rest of the immunity challenges.
She jumped ship and left the Kota 6 alliance, voting out Marcus. Because of this, the Kota 4 did not have majority in the next vote, where they lost Charlie.

As a result, Randy went next, followed by Corinne, almost followed by Bob.

All in all, she was responsible for destroying the Kota alliance. I say the jurors (the majority of which will be former Kota members) have plenty of reasons to at least not award her the victory.
 

Dyyne

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Actually Yuna, Randy was close with Matty, so he would probably vote for him (you find that out in the videos online).
 

Knightcrawler

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Yeah, Ken's ****ed. But vote for him to get the guy $100,000! Every vote counts. Seriously, we need to leverage this right now while we can.

Anyway, assuming Ken DOES make it to the final three, he might get Randy's vote. I remember him at a tribal saying something like "He's not a little kid anymore, he's grown up," or something like that. He'd get Crystal's for sure. He might get a vote or two for playing the game really well.

Bob will beat everyone in the finals if he makes it that far. I think Sugar, Matty, and Suzie might see that Bob needs to be taken out, and take him out. Bob's vote might then go to Ken. If Ken makes it into the final three with anyone as long as Bob is out of the picture, he might win. Seriously we talk about how Ken doesn't have many votes, but Matty, Sugar, and Suzie have none banked for them (except Matty having Randy's).

And let's not forget that Bob might still feel the need to give Ken an immunity necklace if he wins another one.
 

Turbo Ether

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I think Matty would prefer to take Suzie to F3, over Bob, along with Sugar, since he can't lose to those two. Matty allying with Bob is suicide.
 

#HBC | Mac

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the only way i would be happy about this season is if susie won.
everybody would have gotten mind****ed.
 

Yuna

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Anyway, assuming Ken DOES make it to the final three, he might get Randy's vote. I remember him at a tribal saying something like "He's not a little kid anymore, he's grown up," or something like that. He'd get Crystal's for sure. He might get a vote or two for playing the game really well.
But Randy is friends with Matty. And he and Ken barely know each other. He was just giving Ken a compliment.

Knightcrawler;6086713 And let's not forget that Bob might still feel the need to give Ken an immunity necklace if he wins another one.[/quote said:
Why? Ken just tried to take immunity from him so he could vote him out. I say any feelings of guilt he had over lying to Ken evaporated with that attempt at a double-cross.

I think Matty would prefer to take Suzie to F3, over Bob, along with Sugar, since he can't lose to those two. Matty allying with Bob is suicide.
Matty doesn't really like Suzie though, does he? I mean, there's no dislike there, but it's not like they're friends. But I see what you mean.

Bob will just have to keep on winning immunity. Or strike up an alliance with Suzie and Ken (shiver) should it ever come to that. The thing is that Matty and Sugar aren't complete idiots. They know that they need a 3rd person in their alliance.

Should they take the backstabbing Suzie who could turn on people in a second or who doesn't really do anything or should they take Bob? They're not taking Ken, that's for sure.

I think Sugar has a chance now. Even Corinne might actually like her more now after last night's episode's tribal. She apparently master-minded a blindsiding of Crystal, helping Matty and Bob. That should score her some points, so she's not completely out of the loop yet.

Without Bob around (if he doesn't make Top 3), Bob's votes (+ Bob's own vote) must go to someone. Why not Sugar? Or quite possibly Matty. It might get split among hem.
 

choknater

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"Matty, take this cursed thing away."

That was the sweetest move I've ever seen. Great job Sugar.

As much as we all love Ken, his play wasn't perfect. Congrats for getting this far but I think Bob is going to win. I'll go vote for Ken now though.
 

Wind Owl

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Buzz, I recommend you include a link to where we're supposed to vote in the OP. Preferably in big flashy letters so that people that don't really care about Survivor but kind of care about Ken don't have to figure anything out.

EDIT: Also include that you are allowed to vote 10 times and that all of those votes should be used on Ken :)

EDIT2: lol, you already did. It's not flashy enough though >__>
But I'll shut up now <__<
 

Kirbynator

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Presuming to judge people as good and evil tends to do that.


It kind of underlies my distaste for Jeff Probst and the Survivor editing team. Also, Michael Moore.

The world is gray.
I'd agree but that might be their way to make people believe sugar or matty will win, when in fact its the opposite!

Kinda lame if since the start they say oooh its good vs evil and sugar is good so thereyago good always wins for ratings so she wins. game over.

Bleh. That would kinda suck


bob or ken ftw

not sugar or matty =( (sugar is def top 2)
 
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