Hey, I know this deviates a bit from the current topic (for better or for worse), but, as part of an article I've been asked to write, I was rereading
this old thread about Sakurai's GDC 2008 presentation from a user in attendance. One tidbit of information jumped out at me that I had completely missed before is one that I think many of you will find quite illuminating.
Pay extra close attention to that second paragraph. In our current discussions, we'll often make light predictions about whether characters have been chosen by now, as well as whether a character's "chances" can still go up or down based on new developments. However, if this information is anything to go by, the vast majority of characters on the final roster are very,
very likely set in stone. I refer to the vast majority of the roster rather than all of it due to two existing precedents; if characters are prioritized again, the final few low priority characters may either squeeze in or miss out at the last minute, while unplanned characters like Melee's clones or Sonic may be added, based on the development schedule.
More food for thought to chew on...the above quote mentions posed figurines being used during the creation of the original design document. We have
photographic confirmation that these figurines are being used again during this game's planning (or, at least, that Sakurai owns them and places them in poses that resemble attacks during his free time). These photos were posted on December 27, 2012 and October 20, 2012, respectively. Assuming that parallels exist between the development practices of Brawl and SSB4, it is entirely plausible that these dates were part of this timeframe of planning out character attacks, and thus, characters. I would bet that this phase began well before these dates, given that SSB4's development began after Uprising's release in March 2012, but this is anyone's guess.
Did I miss anything?