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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Gam3rALO

Smash Journeyman
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Gam3rALO
Mach Rider:
Chance: 10%
I could see him getting in but it is not likely.

Want: 5%
Meh...

Prediction for Lloyd: 14.55%

Nominations:
Little Mac x5
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
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Everywhere
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Mach Rider: 15% I personally think that Excitebiker will be above him
Want: 25% I could have him yet I would be disappointed that he got in above Excitebiker

Lloyd: 7%
Omastar x2
Bulborb x2
Wonder Red x1
I need to make sure that Chancellor Cole gets in on the same day as omastar.

x5 Chancellor Cole
 

djgeiger0620

Smash Rookie
Joined
Aug 7, 2013
Messages
24
Mach Rider Chances: 25% - I think he's got a decent shot.

Mach Rider Want: 1% - Not a fan.


Lloyd (FINALLY!) :joyful:

Prediction - Probably only about 12.22% because people be hatin' on my boy! :glare:

Btw, you probably can't tell how much I dislike ToS. I mean, it's not like my avatar is a character from that game... PRESEA for SSB4!
Noms to Tails x5
 

DarkKry4

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 16, 2006
Messages
517
Mach Rider

Chance - 5%

Want - 13%

Llord Irving - 4%

x5 Pauline (Super Mario Bros)
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,112
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
Mach Rider:
Chance: 12%
Sakurai's a fan, there is a high chance of getting a retro rep, but there's also a lot of competition for the spot. Sakurai is also a fan of Lip, and Takamaru has been seen as the hot favourite on Smashboards(although that may not mean much).

Want: 3%
I'd rather have Duck Hunt Dog or Lip personally...or even Balloon Fighter, Donbe & Hikari or Bubbles. Even though I'm not that keen on Takamaru, I'd pick him over Mach Rider. Basically dead last for me in terms of retro want, and only gets 3% because I have a soft spot for retro Nintendo games.

Lloyd: 4.3%
Pac-Man's more iconic and the one of the few 3rd party reps that could be called legendary to stand on the same grounds as Sonic and Megaman.
I'm sure he'll do better in terms of want, but chances % is gonna be loooow.

Nominations:
Captain Syrup X 5
 

XenothiumX

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 27, 2013
Messages
418
Mach Rider
Likelihood: 12.5%

Want: 50% (indifferent)

Lloyd Irving
Prediction: 4.5%

Nominations:
Majora's Mask Link x5
 

Good Guy Giygas

Smash Master
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Mach Rider

Likelihood: 27% - Being from Sakurai's favorite NES game, I think he's definitely got a shot.
Want: 65% - He's the only retro character I'd really get behind. I think Sakurai could give him an interesting and appealing moveset, plus the idea of a character who primarily fights on a bike seems awesome to me.

Lloyd: 5%

Nominations:
Isaac x5
 

Starcutter

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mach rider: 30%
want: 70% biker dude fighter seems cool.

LIoyd: 6%

noms
lucario x4
phoenix wright
 

Louie G.

Smash Hero
Joined
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Mach Rider:

Chances: 30%
Definitely a front runner for the retro spot, but Takamaru is currently in the lead.

Want: 100%
A fighter who fights ON HIS BIKE. Sign me up, please.

Lloyd Prediction: 5.5%
Lloyd is a cool guy, but isn't as important to Namco as Pac-man. If we get a Namco rep that's who it will be.

Nominations:
Magnus x5
 
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Messages
1,628
Mach Rider:

Chance: 5% (decent retro choice, would have a lot of competition with the likes of Sheriff and Takamaru)
Want: 1% (would be cool, don't want)

Lloyd Irving:

Chance: 30% (one of the higher Namco choices)
Want: 40% (would be a cool character)

Nominations:
Cress Albane x5
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Jun 14, 2013
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Villanova
Mach Rider: 20%
He'd be a very difficult character to implement... an all-bike character would be a nightmare to design and program, and his trademark weapons (guns and stuff) wouldn't fit in well. Still... Sakurai knows of him and likes him (even going as far to have him redesigned for the Melee trophy), so he's still possible.

Mach Rider Want: 33%
He'd be cool if he stayed on the bike at all times, but otherwise he doesn't impress me. Looks a lot like Captain Falcon, acts mature. Eh. I'd rather have a plethora of other retros before him.

Lloyd Prediction: 10.54%
This board is Pac-Man's... but people don't like that.

Phoenix Wright x5
No objections here.

Day Over
Return of Groose
(I apologize for the wonky deviations from the update schedule; I have a lot on my plate right now. I should have restored order for tomorrow, however.)
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Mach Rider (Mach Rider)
17.62% chance
44.75% want

WOW! AMAZING! A character actually performed decently! Mach Rider is the first character in a week to break 10% in chance (bar only DHD, who barely did so). Mach Rider also did pretty well in want, too.

Mach Rider isn't all that famous of a character... but this next guy is. Heck, they tell Tales of this guy. Please rate Lloyd Irving in both chance and want.

Tomorrow we have... Mike Jones! Please predict how Mike Jones will fare in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you five extra nominations, like those won by SchAlternate! Gratz!
 

Morbi

Scavenger
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Speculation God, GOML
Lloyd Irving Chance: 5%

I don't like rating 3rd party characters highly, it doesn't really make any sense. I just think 3rd party characters are going to be something special, and Lloyd isn't all that special. He is not nearly on par with the likes of MegaMan or Sonic. He doesn't have the connections like Snake or Pacman. So it wouldn't be rational to give Lloyd Irving a high rating. I don't think he will EVER make it into any Smash titles. Not even as a sticker or cameo.

Lloyd Irving Want: 1%

I have never been a big fan of Lloyd. His design is unappealing, I have never really played his series either. I don't want a non-Nintendo character that no one has really heard of.

Mike Jones Prediction: 100%

He is a great rapper.
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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Lloyd Irving Chance: 3% Pac-Man is definitely going first.
Lloyd Irving Want: 80% Admittedly he's a cool character, in SSF2.
Mike Jones prediction: 5.6% I don't think Mike can happen without Sakurai researching of North American releases.
Nominations:
x5 Tom Nook
 

Smasher 101

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Lloyd's chances: 3% - Don't see him getting in over Pac-Man.
Want: 30% - Eh.

Mike Jones prediction: 8.14%

Andy x5
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
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Mintendo Noodle House
Chances
Lloyd Irving - 3%
The chances exist mostly because of Japan. But outside of that, I can't see any more third parties making it in this game who aren't Pac-Man. It's just what makes the most sense and I'm sticking to that.

Want - 35%
I very much prefer Pac-Man. That said, I did play Tales of Symphonia and it was very fun. My problem though is that I found him to be the least interesting character in there.

Prediction:
Mike Jones: 13.45%
I literally just smashed the keyboard to see what would happen. It's the nth time in days where I really have no clue what to expect from people here anymore.

Nominations
x5 Rhythm Monkey
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
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Steve Irwin:

Chance: 1.35%
I don't honestly think it's that high, but numbers can never be wrong! I simply looked at the best selling jRPG in Japan (Dragon Quest), noted how well his rep did (6.06%) and then multiplied it out by the percentage of worldwide sales (22.2%). I'm not that well versed in the tales series, only having played Phantasia (a passable game, but I'm not the biggest fan of action battle jRPGs, and even in that genre it was inferior to Summon Night: Swordcraft Story to me), so I've got to base it all down to numbers, and assume Lloyd Irvine Kinneas is the mascot for the series, with as much input on Japanese popular culture as Slime.

Want: 0%
I would prefer they put Meatboy in than this mr Pink Floyd Irving!

Wait, I actually like Pink Floyd! I take that one back!!!


Mike Jones: 2%
I severely doubt a NA/EU only character would get in smash bros... which is a shame 'cos I rather enjoyed Star Tropics.



Knuckles*5
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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I literally just smashed the keyboard to see what would happen. It's the nth time in days where I really have no clue what to expect from people here anymore.

We're getting to characters that are more obscure/less popular and talked about. We KNOW that our Ridleys and Palutenas will do well, because they're what we spend our time talking about. We rarely ever mention the likes of the Mach Rider here... so we don't know what we all think about them.

I think this middle section of the game is the most important. We're past those characters that people obsess too much over, but we're not to our Omastars and our Yarnes yet.

Knuckles*5

I'd recommend you start throwing all of your nominations behind one of the two from now on. You'll get one of them to the top on the noms list much quicker and we won't have back to back days of Sonic newcomers.
 

Seraphim.

Smash Ace
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Lloyd Irving

Chance: 15% Pac-Man would be over him sadly, although having a Tales rep would be great considering how easy it would be to translate their moves into Smash.

Want: 100% Tales of Symphonia was my first Tales game and I loved it and Lloyd may not be my #1 favorite Tales protagonist but he's still up there and if we do somehow get a Tales rep I expect him to be the one.

Mike Jones: 9.5% Going to be one of those days...

Chrom and Lucina x5
 

Cheezey Bites

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I'd recommend you start throwing all of your nominations behind one of the two from now on. You'll get one of them to the top on the noms list much quicker and we won't have back to back days of Sonic newcomers.

Yeah, I guess, I just don't like separating them... Guess I'll throw my weight behind Knuckles, then go Tails and then start on the slow arduous journey of voting for Ruka Minazuki (we have to get a 0% chance day eventually) 'cos I don't really care that much for anyone else.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Lloyd Irving
Chance: 3%
The Tales series is apparently a high profile RPG in Japan, but it's behind Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Lloyd himself is rather popular and I think there is at least some support. Not only that, but Namco is helping out making SSB4, so I inevitably see us getting a newcomer from Namco. However, the main issues I see with the Tales series getting representation is that it hasn't had any real connections with Nintendo. There are some entries that were on Nintendo consoles, but the latest one isn't coming to the Wii U. He also has to compete against other Namco characters like Pac-Man. Speaking of Pac-Man, he seems to be the more logical choice for Sakurai to include and I do find him to be inevitable. I will give 3% just in case Sakurai and Namco really want to put this guy in the game.
Want: 0%
He's uninteresting to me. I actually rather have Pac-Man instead of Lloyd. I'm also pleased with having Sonic and Mega Man in the roster, so I don't exactly really want other 3rd party characters. Except for Bomberman.
Mike Jones Prediction: 6.32%
He's heavily outclassed by other retro characters.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,779
Lloyd Irving
Chance - 0.5% - He has a very small chance if Namco forces a character upon Sakurai, and he dicides to look for someone interesting. However, if Namco were to force a character, I would probably be Pac-Man considering how much they want to make him a modern icon again. Really, I don't see how Sakurai would see him as something he would actively go after.

Want - 30% - A better third party than Pac-Man, though he feels less of a Titan of Gaming than many charaters, and I would rather give that precious third-party slot to someone else.


Mike Jones Prediction - 4% - How many think he actualy has a chance?

Nominations -
Anna X5
 

Gam3rALO

Smash Journeyman
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Gam3rALO
Lloyd Irving:
Chance: 1%
Third Party... Mega Man and Sonic are already confiremed. The only ones left for confirmation (or not) are Pac Man and Snake.

Want: .5%
No way!

Prediction for Mike Jones: 10.57%

Nominations:
Little Mac x5
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
Joined
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4,083
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Chances for Lloyd: 0%
He isn't "in a league of his own".

Want: 50%
Tales of music is the best

Predicting 1.49% for Mike

5x nomz toon zelda/tetra
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

Smash Journeyman
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263
Lloyd Irving: 15%
Considering the popularity of the Tales series in Japan, and that of Tales of Symphonia in particular, Lloyd's probably one of the most obvious choices for a Bamco rep. Then again, there's no guarantee of a Bamco rep in the first place.

Want: 19.5%
I'd much prefer him to Pac-Man, but as far as Bamco characters go, I'm hoping for a certain long-eared individual whose identity should be obvious to those who have seen my previous posts.

Mike Jones prediction: 2.1%

Nominate:
Goemon x3
Marina x2
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,179
Lloyd Irving gets a generous 6% from me. I would radically boost that if Tales of Symphonia HD Collection were coming to Wii U, plus Pac-Man, man.

predict: Mike Jones performs an okay underdog score of 9%

Victory for Victini x5!
 

jaytalks

Smash Champion
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jaytalks
This is without a doubt my favorite video game theme of all time:
Tales of Symphonia: Like a Glint of Light
This is the battle theme of disc 2, with Tethealla.

And for the rest:
Lloyd - Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World
This might be the only version where I like DoNW's music better. Also wanted to give DoNW a little representation.
Sheena - Tales of Symphonia
Favorite characters in Tales.
Kratos Battle Theme - Tales of Symphonia
Important Battle.
Tales of Symphonia: Fatalize
Tales of Symphonia: Fighting of the Spirits
Two other great battle themes.

To Groose: Dwarven Vow 41: It's better to begin in the evening than not at all.
 

NickerBocker

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
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1,091
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AB, Canada
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Lloyd Irving

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Mike Joooooooooones: 5.3%

Nominations:
Anna x5
(Just trying to nominate all the higher rankers that i like so I can nominate lower ones with less effort)
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
2,574
Lloyd Irving chance=2%

Lloyd Irving want=1%

Mike Jones prediction=2%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki
 

Yams

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
232
Location
AG, CA
Lloyd Irving
Likelihood: 1% There is no way he'd get in over Pac-Man. He's less popular, less requested, and less iconic to Namco. I'm still not sold we'll see Pac-Man at all, so Lloyd is really just pushing it.
Want: 10% He would feel like a waisted slot. I'd rather have any other Nintendo Character, but I'd rather see him over Pac-Man

Mike Jones: 2.55%

Sukapon x5
 

jaytalks

Smash Champion
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jaytalks
Lloyd Irving
Lloyd's Likelihood: 1%
As much I love Tales of Symphonia and its hero, I can't see Sakurai adding a character that lacks such iconic status. His ties to Nintendo are really strong (ToS, ToS: DoNW, Soul Cailbur Legends appearance), so if Namco and Sakurai decided on a character not named Pac-Man it would be Lloyd. He's probably the biggest Tales protagonist in the series, and I think his game is the best selling in the series. If only the HD collection was also coming to Wii U, I would bump him by 1%.
Want: 100%
Probably my most second wanted third party character, he was one of the reasons you were glad to own a Gamecube. Just a phenomenal RPG. His fighting style is more interesting than your normal sword based protagonist, and he has great ties to Nintendo. Sheena as an Assist Trophy. Derris Kharlan as a stage.

Mike Jones: 2.33%
Nominations:
Phoenix Wright x 5. For the music.

Here are some Dwarven Vows for all your Smash Speculation:
When playing Smash:
Dwarven Vow 10. Play hard, play often.
On adding characters:
Dwarven Vow 5. The more you add, the worse it gets.
When practicing Smash:
Dwarven Vow 43. Never forget the basics.
For everything else:
Dwarven Vow 1: Let's all work together for a peaceful world.
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
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Lloyd: 1% I think that Pac-Man will get in way before he does...
Want: 15% I love this character. I have never played any of his games but just his design is amazing. I also love how he plays in SSF2. But I would absolutely die if Pac-Man, Namco's most famous character, got in after him (Wow I actually like a third party newcomer)

Mike: 3.5%

x5 Chancellor Cole
 
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