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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Groose

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Mr. Game and Watch
99.50% chance
90.51% want

Mr. Game and Watch dominated in his day; he's by far the highest rated character of any we've rated. We probably shouldn't even have rated him.

Speaking of characters we shouldn't have rated, Marth and ZSS have been removed from the nominations list. Almost everyone wanted Marth gone and a bit over half of you also wanted ZSS gone.

Today we will be rating the most controversial character to ever enter this game. Not Ridley. Not Mii. Not Tingle. IMPA! Please leave your chance and want on the recurring Sheikah today.

WARNING! CHALLENGER RE-APPROACHING! The Mario series has undergone several changes since we've last talked about it. Toad has been shown in Peach's moveset and Mario veterans are being shown off left and right. Does this aid Bowser Jr., who last scored a 43.44%? Please leave your chance and want on Bowser Jr. today.

Oh, and that's right! We'll be rating everyone's favorite Nintencat tomorrow: Meowth! Does he have a chance in such a crowded Pokemon series? Please predict how Meowth will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Xenigma. But wait! Xenigma predicted the exact score (becoming only the second to do so, behind Paulkagebein), so he wins a whopping 10 extra nominations!
 

djgeiger0620

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I think Impa has a much higher chance than most people here think. I rated my prediction for her fairly low because most people don't think she's got a shot. Big difference between how much I want her in Brawl, what I think her chances are, and what OTHER people think her chances are. So Diddy, I'm with you in that regard.

Impa has more of a shot than Ghirahim or Demise. Why? Because unless they plan to use them again, they're once and done, no matter how awesome they are. Something they'll look (in the Zelda series, anyway) is continuity. It makes more sense to pick a character that has been and will continue to make appearances in the game vs a character that has never been in the series before, shows up for one game, but will never be in the series again (despite their popularity). Now if they do plan on using Ghirahim or Demise again, then that ups their chances significantly. I don't see how they would use them though.

I used this same argument with Skull Kid, so I've got an objective approach to this. Personally, I'd really WANT Ghirahim, but I think he has a very low shot of getting in.
 

MargnetMan23

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Impa: 18% Screw you Diddy =P I'm not going to elaborate but honestly I have little reason to believe Sakurai would actually want to cut Shiek and replace her with Impa even if some of it see it as the best option.
Want: 40% I don't really care about Shiek and I certainly don't care about a character who would basically be Shiek except... Not Shiek.
Bowser Jr: 69% I mean, 59% I think Bowser Jr beats out Paper Mario in chances and is to me the most likely mario newcomer... Unless by some chance we don't get another Mario newcomer (and for reasons I explained before it's not a big deal for pokemon to have 5 reps and Mario have 4...)
Want: My most wanted realistic mario newcomer... Unfortunately that's not saying that much. 70%
Meowth: 12.5% Honestly I predict the brawl roster+mewtwo for pokemon but Meowth IS up there though... He has competition but I'd put him as one of the say, 3 most likely poke newcomers...
 

djgeiger0620

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Oh yay, it's begun!


Impa:

Want - 80% - I'd really like to see her instead of Sheik. Whenever I play, I would always use either Zelda or the Sheik, but never switch back and forth on a regular basis. However, they could make her a completely different moveset and I'd be fine with that to.


Chances - 60% - 5 reasons why (3 affirmatives, 2 oppositions)

Affirmatives
1) She's a recurring character
2) The most recent model could fit a fighting style game like SSB very well
3) If she were to take Sheik's moveset (which if she's in, she may or may not), Sheik is non-recurring

Oppositions (Both of these oppositions assume she would take Sheik's place. If she doesn't, these are completely irrelevant.)
4) Sheik is extremely popular
5) Sheik is already integrated into the SSB world

Bowser Jr:

Want - 100% - OMG PLEASE NINTENDO!!!!!

Chances - 75% - I think he's got the best shot of any potential Mario newcomers.


Meowth prediction - Ummm... 8%? Ugh, I hope he does better, but I don't see it happening.


Noms to Lloyd Irving x5
 

Toxicroaker

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Impa: 3%
Want: 1%

Bowser Jr.: 57%
Want: 99%

Meowth: 2% (come on I have been playing this game the whole time it has been up and only missed 3 days. Surely I will get one soon)
 

Diddy Kong

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Wtf are these troll votes without any ****ing explanation?

Chance: 100%
Want: 100%

If ^that^ counts as a vote, so should this. :glare:

Geiger, <3 to you soldier!
 

Diddy Kong

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Do any of these chaps even Skyward Sword? :faceplam:

Chance:
Impa has a lot of oppertunities to fit in. As a tag-along with Zelda, basically Zelda /Sheik 2.5. As a separate character from Zelda to, replacing Sheik. Or as well, just an extra Zelda character added regardless of Sheik's exclusion or not. The only recent re-occuring, important overall, and fighter material character from recent Zelda games, Impa has a great shot of being chosen as a new Zelda character. I give her... 60%.

Want:
100%.

Better now?

Sheik x 5
 

Cheezey Bites

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Impa:

Chance: 1%
Tingle got his own game, and people think Impa will be the next Zelda rep? Honestlu, whut?
Okay, there are a few who think she'd be a transformation of Zelda... but whut? What's next Peach transforming into Toadsworth? 2 different characters guys!

Want: 0%
Seriously, the support thread has her moveset being sheik with a shadowy motif... Sheik does it better, is a veteran, and make more sense.


Bowser Jr:

Chance: 78%
Get that paintbrush outta here, Jr's here to support his papa! I was previously reserved saying a new Mario rep was unlikely, and unneeded; but with all the Mario vets already revealed my opinion has partially changed. Unneeded, yeah, though not unwanted, and now looking a LOT less unlikely. Sakurai's still a troll, but I don't see why he'd (though don't doubt he could) release everyone Mario so early without a Mario newcomer reveale later. I reserve 20% for Sakurai trolling us who want Jr, and 2% for another Mario rep, but I don't really see it.

Want: 100%
A mix between Bowser and Squirtle? Liekly with a fireball rather than constant scorch? And the chance for a Koopa Clown Copter Final Smash?! Sign me up!



Meowth: 6.07%
I fear he's going to beat slime, but I have no idea by how much. I just hope that Team Rocket's Rocket ends up in his music section!


EDIT:
Since Ephecus is voting Tails I'll put my votes to knuckles, just gotta hope I win a prediction t some point so they can get back to neck and neck. (It should be all of team sonic or just sonic in my opinion).

Knuckles*5
 

MargnetMan23

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Do any of these chaps even Skyward Sword? :faceplam:

Chance:
Impa has a lot of oppertunities to fit in. As a tag-along with Zelda, basically Zelda /Sheik 2.5. As a separate character from Zelda to, replacing Sheik. Or as well, just an extra Zelda character added regardless of Sheik's exclusion or not. The only recent re-occuring, important overall, and fighter material character from recent Zelda games, Impa has a great shot of being chosen as a new Zelda character. I give her... 60%.

Want:
100%.

Better now?

Sheik x 5
To be fair, Zelda U/WW currently seem a bit more viable for MUH RECENCY even if Zelda U probably won't be out by Smash's release
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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Impa: 7.5%
Want: 0%

Bowser Jr.: 55%
Want: 80%

Meowth: 5%

Nominate:
Ridley x 4
Yarne x 1
 

Diddy Kong

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To be fair, Zelda U/WW currently seem a bit more viable for MUH RECENCY even if Zelda U probably won't be out by Smash's release
Except SS was MUH RECENCY when Smash began development. Safe to say that Zelda Wii U will not get any content at all in this game.

Also why the **** can't people remember Skyloft?

Just remember who has all the fun when Impa gets confirmed. :smirk:
 

MargnetMan23

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Except SS was MUH RECENCY when Smash began development. Safe to say that Zelda Wii U will not get any content at all in this game.

Also why the **** can't people remember Skyloft?

Just remember who has all the fun when Impa gets confirmed. :smirk:
Skyward Sword is kind of in that awkward moment of time where it's too recent to not get content based off of it but too old to really see any character add-ons from it as an important big thing... Kind of like 5th gen of pokemon if X and Y wasn't coming out in the middle of the game's development. And I doubt Impa would be the first newcomer they would be inclined to add even with recency as a factor. I was thinking of Skyloft actually, as the kind of small boon to my somewhat weak argument. Impa has a chance to be added but cutting Shiek for her doesn't seem that likely unfortunately all things considered.
 

YoshiandToad

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Impa:

Chance: 20%
If I'm honest, as much dislike as Impa seems to get here, she is a reoccuring Zelda character, she is an important secondary character from the Zelda-verse and she's had a few large notable roles.
Being essentially Sheik(at least the Impa most people have requested) but without being attached to Zelda is neither a pro nor a con as far as I can tell; Impa could easily be a semi-clone of sheik which doesn't actually harm her chances. Also she has magic which for some reason Sheik, who is basically the most magical character currently in Smash in disguise, does not is a point in her favour.

So Impa according to this would at least have half a hope, right?

Well I think her biggest obstacle is Sakurai himself. Who has been planned for Smash for Zelda in the past? Link, Young Link, Toon Link. Ganondorf. Zelda, Toon Zelda. Sheik, Toon Sheik.
Repeats a fair bit doesn't it considering the amount of characters within this universe. Toon Sheik isn't even a thing. If it's Tetra, sure, but then why call it "Toon Sheik"? Hell, Sheik hasn't even appeared since OoT and yet in Brawl s/he(?) got a style redesign to match the Twilight Princess look even though she didn't exist in that game.

Chances are Sakurai is going to do it again, and stick with the traditional 4.5 characters he has representing Zelda: Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, Sheik and Toon Link.

Want:

Depends on the Impa:
Ninja Impa? 20%
Fat Impa? 60%
Frankly I think Fat Impa just stands out a hell of a lot more than stick Impa, and having a female character that isn't the atypical beauty, and dare I say; a slow powerhouse character might actually be a refreshing change of pace.
I know I'm in the minority here, but yes; I want to throw cows at people.

(Groose; pick whichever Impa you feel people are actually reviewing for the purpose of the game)

Bowser Jr.
Ah good...Bowser Jr. I was hoping I'd get a chance for him.
Chance: 30%
Whilst another Mario Rep almost seems like overkill(especially if you're counting Yoshi and Wario as part of their universe) Bowser Jr. is certainly the most likely and arguably deserving candidate right now to be up for consideration with Toad's chances shot to pieces and Paper Mario frankly feels like a (warp) pipe dream. Waluigi doesn't even exist in Mario and Wario canon. Geno? HAHAHAHAHAHA. No, Toad's still got more chance than Geno does even now. That's how unlikely Geno is.
Actually Doc may have an equal chance of returning, but he'd be the worst choice.

Toad's deconfirmation, however, doesn't improve Bowser Jr's chances anymore than Luigi being confirmed improves Waluigi's. They're unrelated.

Want: 5%
However that said I just don't LIKE Bowser Jr. At all. I grew up fighting the Koopalings, and Bowser Jr. basically hijacked their position in one swoop. As a rule of thumb I also hate the bratty kid archetype, so Bowser Jr really isn't for me.
Badass Bowser didn't need a morality pet either which is what Jr. sometimes comes off as.
I also feel he has a lazy design, just borrowing the design from Baby Bowser and flinging a bib on it. I know they're related, but compare how unique the Koopalings looked in comparison to their former father.

Anyway, that's all personal stuff I dislike about Jr. in general. For Smash the additional concern for me is that we get not one, but two clones from him should Sakurai for some god forsaken reason choose to implement Shadow Mario as part of his moveset.

I don't doubt Bowser Jr. COULD be a unique character, but so could Roy, Falco and especially Ganondorf could have been. If I have to pick from the remaining Mario newcomers who may end up as a semi clone, I'll side with the more interesting Paper Mario. I'd rather no new Mario character if I'm honest though. None of the remainders seem as integeral to Mario's long long history with johnny-come-lately Bowser Jr. as the next most obvious choice.

But of course if Peach's B move suddenly gets a facelift, or Toad appears as a playable newcomer regardless, I won't be disappointed about jumping back to my original ship.

Please excuse this review for sounding full of bile and venom but it's been a tough time to be a Toad fan of recent with all the smug snakes on these boards.
(Also I've always hated Bowser Jr. anyway. Even if Toad had been confirmed for Smash 4 and we were doing this for Smash 5 I imagine I'd be much the same.)

Meowth:
I've been waiting for this one too, but for totally different reasons.
That said, even as a fan of Meowth I couldn't see him scoring above 15% in terms of chance. I expect he's more wanted than that, but the Pokemon roster is already pretty full what with Pikachu, Puff, Trainer, Lucario and Mewtwo seemingly being shoo-ins.

Nominations:
X 5 for Duck Hunt Dog

(Edit: Expecting a lot of hate for the Bowser Jr. review. Bring it on I guess.)
 

Louie G.

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Impa:

Likeliness: 30%
She's higher up on the the Zelda scale, but when it comes down to it, there are so many better and more likely choices.

Want: 25%
Meh. She'd be cool, but so would a lot of other people.
I'm very indifferent I suppose.

Nominations:
Duck Hunt Dog x5
 

Swamp Sensei

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Diddy. You're trying too hard.

Impa: 21%

Not likely, but possible methinks... I'd imagine if she keeps showing up, we'd see her for smash 5. But for now, I don't think so...

Want: 60%
I like the character but Diddy....

You're a cool dude Diddy, just no when talking about Impa....

Bowser Jr: 50%
The only real contendters for a Mario newcomer now are Jr. and Paper Mario.

I think it's a 50-50 chance on what one we get.

Want: 90%

I love Jr. Having him would be awesome!

Meowth Prediction: 7%

I can't see it happening to be honest. WAY too much competition.

Nominations:
Wolf x2
Sheik x2
Dark Samus
 

Smasher 101

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Impa's chances: 15%
Want: 0%

Bowser Jr.'s chances: 50%
Want: 95% - One of my most wanted newcomers.

Meowth prediction: 13.24%

Andy x5! Probably going to take a while for me to take him to the top but I'm interested to see how well he does.
 

Diddy Kong

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Skyward Sword is kind of in that awkward moment of time where it's too recent to not get content based off of it but too old to really see any character add-ons from it as an important big thing... Kind of like 5th gen of pokemon if X and Y wasn't coming out in the middle of the game's development. And I doubt Impa would be the first newcomer they would be inclined to add even with recency as a factor. I was thinking of Skyloft actually, as the kind of small boon to my somewhat weak argument. Impa has a chance to be added but cutting Shiek for her doesn't seem that likely unfortunately all things considered.

I disagree more.

Why compare Skyward Sword to Pokémon's 5th generation? Just because you don't see it happening, doesn't mean it won't. Remember Melee? All newcomers where basically Ocarina of Time characters. Even Young Link, with his Kokiri Sword and Deku Shield. But how many titles where released after Ocarina of Time? They even had JUST released Majora's Mask! They simply go for the biggest title, and out of all titles now, Skyward Sword is that. It's by far their more ambitious move on the series than Ocarina of Time 3D, Wind Waker HD and A Link Between Worlds. It also recevied far more promotion than all. Possbily more than all 3 combined.

If any series or character was 'too old' to get in, how come Olimar made it to Brawl? He should've been in Melee by this logic.

Cuts have been announced. Revamps on movesets have been shown. Cutting Sheik is therefore not as unlikely as people think. 'MUH GIMMICKS' is far more prevailing in pro-Sheik arguements than 'MUH RECENCY' / 'MUCH RELEVANCE' is in pro-Impa arguements. Keep that one in mind.

Also keep in mind that Twilight Princess was basically designed to be Ocarina of Time 2.5. Therefore, they might not felt the need to include a new character from that game. And as Sheik was already drafted for TP and TP being in development still in 2005 when Sakurai made roster decisions, my assumption is he just went with Sheik out of lazines.

Who says he can't cut Sheik, and cut Toon Link, revamp Ganondorf, revamp Zelda and make Impa playable with her gameplay being focussed on Sheik's? That means, no copying moves, but having the same sort of function still? Kinda like, how people suggest Chrom would take Ike's place? Kinda like they did with Toon Link over Young Link, but more expansive?

People are really, really close-minded around here. Too much focussed on 'gimmicks, therefore = awesome' when it's FAR from being the case. You alrready see it with Pokémon Trainer and how many people want changes in him. Yet, nobody voices out for Zelda / Sheik? That's either ignorance, or just being weak. Sorry, had to say that.

You can all continue giving Impa 1% chance and 0% want now. :glare:
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Impa

Likelihood: 10%? - I honestly don't know anything about the character..
Want: 0% - So basically another Sheik? I'll pass.

Bowser Jr.

Likelihood: 84% - I think he's the only logical choice for the next Mario rep, but that's if there even is one this time around.
Want: 90% - In my opinion, Bowser Jr.'s cooler than his dad. Plus he's got way more potential for a good moveset than Toad.

Meowth: 8%

Nomz:
Ninten x5
 

Starcutter

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Impa: 25%
want 3% nobody's gonna take sheik away

Bowser jr.: 75%
Want 75%

Meyowth, that's rigtht: 7.6%

Noms
Lucario x4
Phoenix wright
 

Seraphim.

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Impa: 33% Reading some of these statements have convinced me a little, but not a lot
Want: 78% I would use her, actually.

Bowser Jr. 58%: I personally think that Mario doesn't need anymore reps but if they do decide to get one more then it'll be Bowser Jr.
Want: 56%

Meowth: 11% To much competition.

Lucario x5
 

SmashShadow

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Impa: 22%
+Recurring Zelda Character in a game where there is only 7 and 4 are already in smash
+Skyward Sword was the last platformer
+OoT 3DS
+Played a major role in SS and medium role in OoT
+Easy replacement for Sheik
+There really isn't any shoo-ins from the Zelda side
-The Big 3 are already in Smash
-Uncertainty we will get another rep
-Could be seen as too similar to Sheik
-Competition from about 4-5 other Zelda reps(Toon Zelda, Tetra, Tingle, Vaati)

Want: 65%
I think she's definitely worthy of being in Smash and would welcome her but wouldn't be too enthralled. I honestly do think she makes more sense than Sheik does simply because she'll actually show up again.

Bowser Junior:cool:: 51%
I honestly think Toad has all but been knocked out of the race at this time and with that goes his major competition. He's been a major antagonist staple ever since he appeared in Sunshine. In fact, he was just in Mario and Luigi: Dream Team.

Want: 95% My most wanted Mario character.

5x Toad

Meowth: 10%
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Oh boy...
Impa
Chance: 15%
Impa is one of the most re-occuring characters in Zelda history. She "debuted" in Zelda 1 (and I put that in quotations because she wasn't really in the game) and has been a staple since. So, it does seem logical that she could be the 4th Zelda character. However, I don't think that she would bring anything new to Smash Bros. as a magic user who is fast and nimble is already covered with the Zelda/Sheik combo. Also, I haven't seen too much support for her and I haven't seen too many requests for her. Sorry.
Want: 0%
Meh... she doesn't interest me.
Not much about what I can say on Impa, but I can say a lot about...
Bowser Jr.
Chance: 75%
Bowser Jr. has been in the Mario spotlight for a very long time. He is a character who is either loved or hated, but I think he's more loved since he does have a quite a number of requests and has some support from what I've seen. Nintendo has made him a re-occuring character and villain as he has appeared in the Galaxy games, the New Super Mario Bros. games, Paper Mario Sticker Star, and various sports and spin-off games. He is also the main villain in Super Mario Sunshine and New Super Mario Bros. for the DS. Not only that, but he has so much moveset potential. I've seen people say that he would be a clone or semi-clone of Bowser, but have you played or seen gameplay of Mario Super Sluggers? He uses his signature paintbrush as a baseball bat! So, I think that would be justifiable to make a moveset around that by making it his main weapon. He doesn't have too much competition to be honest as his only real threat in my eyes, Toad, has been somewhat de-confirmed from the looks of it. Some might also cite that it would be somewhat unheard of to have a 5th Mario rep, but I think it's possible since Melee had Dr. Mario anyway. He has so much going for him that he has amazing chances from the looks of it.
Want: 100%
During Brawl's time, I was hoping to see Bowser Jr. be playable! Bowser Jr. is my second most wanted character, right behind Little Mac. I actually like the character as he can be pretty funny at times; I remember replaying the first mission in Pinna Park in Super Mario Sunshine just to get a good chuckle of Bowser Jr. saying that Peach was his mother.
Meowth Prediction: 6.3%
It's personally hard for me to predict Meowth to be honest.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x
 

Diddy Kong

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She has reasonable ammount of supporters, just not with those who are so obstinate that we'll get 100% of Brawl's cast back. Which, we won't ; http://www.cubed3.com/news/19047/1/...-characters-will-return-on-wii-u-and-3ds.html .

It's funny, cause especially Europeans seem to want her. I've seen quite some Dutch sites claiming they want Impa, which is funny, cause I never spread the idea anywhere in Dutch, ever (and we're a pretty damn small country). I assume this is cause the Europeans aren't that much involved in speculation. This doesn't mean there's no support for her though. Look at how little support threads there where for Villager before he got confirmed? The idea was often ridiculed as well. But guess where the Villager is now? Whooping asses on Smash Ville probably.

If Japan has spreaded the idea -which is likely if even Europeans can think of it on their own and there are PLENTY of new users who speak up for Impa, see : (this wasn't BY FAR the first time btw) Impa has a shot. And a fair one at that.

But yeah, keep reading insignifcant posts from others and vote for a character you have 0% knowledge about with 1% chance and 0% want. :rolleyes:
 

SchAlternate

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I love how Meowth all of a sudden just pushed Ghirahim aside from being next in line. That tricky little *******, that's why we love him.

Impa-rtiallity
Likelihood: 24% - Oh boy. As far as I'm concerned, the only reason why would Impa might get in would be because of the (rather minimal) possibility of having Sheik removed. Given how unlikely that is to begin with, as well as better options for a Zelda newcomer (if any), I just can't see her appearing. It'd be cool, though, if some details of her SS incarnation could be incorporated into Sheik's design.
Want: 2% - No, thanks. Again, if her design is mixed with that of Sheik's, great. If not, eh.

Bow, Sir Jr.
Likelihood: 45% - Among the more likely Mario newcomers, alongside Paper Mario and Toad, with quite a unique moveset, which might NOT be like Bowser, considering the differences between them, only sharing some moves for the sake of making them relatable to each other (the same is applied with Mario and Paper Mario). Though, it's hard to decide which one of the two is more likely. Then again, I'm not sure how likely is a Mario newcomer to begin with.
Want: 21% - Sorry Junior, but I'd rather see Paper Mario. And Geno.

We Meowth like the wind!
Prediction: 14% - Given how much competition there is in the Pokemon universe, I fear that Meowth will have a rough time tomorrow.

Nominations
Sukapon x5


She has reasonable ammount of supporters, just not with those who are so obstinate that we'll get 100% of Brawl's cast back. Which, we won't ; http://www.cubed3.com/news/19047/1/...-characters-will-return-on-wii-u-and-3ds.html .
Given how, by far, the only viable moveset for Impa is one based on Sheik (I could be wrong), I'd like to ask: Why the hell would Sakurai would take the time to include Impa and be left with no time to include Sheik, if he could just simply make Sheik return?
 

Gam3rALO

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I am dedicating my 100th post to this thread because this is my favorite thread!!!!! :) Thank you Groose!

Impa:
Chance: 30%
In my opinion, the Zelda series is perfectly represented. It's like the Mario series. Would it be awesome to have another rep for that certain series? Of course!!!! Is it necessary? Not really.

Want: 40%
I don't like Zelda characters that much but she would be a good addition.

Bowser
Chance: 82%
I think he is really likely. He has certainly shown popularity. LIke I said above, it isn't necessary to have another rep for this (the Mario) series but it would be a great idea to do so. In my opinion, the Mario series has a high chance of getting a newcomer.

Want: 70.5%
Paintbrush attacks would look amazing!

Prediction for Meowth: 16.54%

Nominations
Sylveon x5
Come on... Come on...
 

Ephecus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
108
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Austria
Impa

Chance: 20 %
Although she is a reocurring character the Zelda-universe feels already complete and Sheik isn't that likely to be cut eventhough she isn't relevant anymore.

Want: 75 %
That said I support the idea of including Impa in Smash. This is true for any incarnation of Impa (even the CDi one, wouldn't that be hilarious?).

Bowser Jr.

Chance: 40 %
Little Jr. fights with one contender less (I don't think Toad is a viable rep now that Peach obviously has him in her movset again) over a spot that might or might not exist.

Want: 5 %
He's my least liked Mario rep. I'd rather have Paper Mario.

Meowth prediction: 8.5 %

Nominations:
5x Tails
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
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Impa

Popularity: Not very high. I don't see there being a lot of demand for her in Japan or the West. For example, she only gets about 10% support in Shortie's poll, coming in somewhere around 100th place in the poll. I'd be very surprised if, relevancy or not, Sheik didn't rate massively higher. This is her big problem. Outside of devoted Zelda fans, I think a lot of people would say "Who?" were she included. And if not "Who?" they'd probably say "Why?"

Relevancy: Impa is one of the most recurring characters in Zelda games (and instruction manuals), and while she has often appeared as an older or fatter woman, in two of her most notable appearances, Ocarina of Time and Skyward Sword she was portrayed as a bodyguard, with magical abilities and a competent warrior. She would easily fit in. While she's not as important as some like Vaati or Ghirahim, she's been in many more games than other suggested characters. Of the "contenders" only Tingle has more game appearances (when you count his spin-off games).

Design: As a Sheikah, her likely move set would be very similar to Sheik's. So it does seem that she'd either be a semi-clone of Sheik or Sheik would have to go. But if it's the Skyward Sword version, she has a graceful build and would fit Sheik's move set perfectly. Add a new down-B and some tweaks to Sheik's moves (the whip kinda sucks, and there maybe should be some more magical look at least) and she'd be pretty cool.

Roster and Competition: But Sheik is the big obstacle. I think you can plausibly argue that Impa is more relevant than Sheik, and not just due to recency. Sheik's one big appearance was in Ocarina of Time, and that was quite a while ago. Impa, on the other hand, had one of her biggest roles yet in Skyward Sword, where she was also quite the bad-ass.

Nevertheless, Sheik has appeared twice, and her lack of relevance wasn't a hindrance in Brawl - they just gave her a Twilight Princess art style even though she didn't even appear in it. She's more well-known and from the most critically acclaimed video game of all time (reports of Mario Galaxy beating OoT should really just say it's a statistical tie). Removing Sheik would create more work, as they'd need to create new down-B special moves for Zelda and Impa, and unless Impa was otherwise just a reskin of Sheik, she'd be a lot more work than Sheik (knowing Sakurai, he'd want to give her her own flair in animations and tweak her moves more than Sheik's would've been tweaked).

And this is without even talking about the likelihood of Tingle, Vaati, Ghirahim or other possible Zelda reps.

Sakurai factors: We know that Sakurai had at least at some point thought about putting Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik (Tetra?) into Brawl. That pretty strongly suggests that some variation on Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik/Tetra is the most likely Zelda newcomer (and if the name Toon Sheik wasn't just a joke in the code, I would hope that upon reflection Sakurai would realize it should be Tetra, not Toon Sheik). Since the development period of Brawl, Phantom Hourglass, Spirit Tracks, Skyward Sword and Ocarina of Time 3D all came out, and Sakurai likely knew about Wind Waker HD early enough to take it into account. Those factors help both Toon Zelda (two new appearances and a remake) and Impa (one new appearance and a remake), but help Impa more relative to her previous importance (Skyward Sword being her biggest, coolest appearance yet). But probably no enough to overtake Toon Zelda as the most likely Zelda newcomer.

Impa chances: 3%
Inertia and the low demand for Impa make me think she's not very likely at all. The Forbidden Seven shows that Sakurai had decided on Toon Zelda out of the Zelda options before. And I'm really not convinced that Sakurai thinks Sheik is a problem that needs fixing, which is the main reason to add Impa. I don't think her appearance in Skyward Sword is enough to get her in if Sakurai doesn't have a problem with Sheik. And with Sheik still around, I don't see much room for Impa.

Impa want: 90%
Impa in Skyward Sword was really cool, as I said before. And she'd add another strong female character (while Sheik is that too, she and Zelda are still only one person).

I really like Sheik's move set (Sheik was my main in Melee). To be honest, I don't care that much about Impa vs. Sheik, as long as we get at least one of them. I somewhat prefer the Impa choice since it would mean new down-B specials for Zelda and Impa. But they could also do that by changing the way Zelda/Sheik's transformation works. But I wouldn't really miss the ability to switch between them since I rarely used it. Transformation characters are also harder to balance, since the Zelda/Sheik player always has more options than normal characters. But all in all, I'll be happy as long as Sheik isn't cut and replaced with nothing.

Not sure how to reflect the fact that I'd rate (Sheik OR Impa) at 100% want easily, but divide it between them. It shouldn't be 100% for both. But eh.

Bowser Jr:

Gonna make this short, since it's a re-rate. Toad's chances have dropped significantly. While swapping out Toad for Toadsworth in Peach's move set (or, less likely, an entirely new move) is still a possibility, and Sakurai's comment makes a lot of sense if interpreted as an oblique reference to Toad, it may just be reading too much into things.

All the Super Mario characters from Brawl have already been revealed, which may suggest that there are more Mario characters to come. But maybe not. I still think we're unlikely to get more than one new Mario rep, but in a larger roster scenario, it's possible.

Bowser Jr chances: 23%
I gave Bowser Jr a 20% chance last time, and at that time I thought Toad was the second most likely after Bowser Jr. I think that Toad's decline helps all other potential Mario reps, but I don't see that it helps Bowser Jr particularly compared to say, Paper Mario or Rosalina. So Toad's lost "chances" don't all accrue to him.

Bowser Jr want: 58%
About the same as before. I want reps for other series more, but Bowser Jr is alright. I don't want Shadow Mario.

Meowth prediction: 13%
Meowth's best chance was a long time ago and I don't think people are thinking he has much of a chance compared to one of the Pokemon being promoted in the new games or the movies. But it's hard to underestimate the numbers here (given that some people think 25% is "minuscule")

Nominations:
Mike Jones x5
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
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Impa
Chances - 25%
This is rather high for me, but here's my reasoning. I think her presence in this game depends entirely on what sort of Zelda Sakurai decides to go for.
IF he goes for the Skyward Sword Zelda, who has the younger, more peaceful look, I can imagine Impa being her "sheik" since it would make sense given that so much of Skyward Sword was Impa and Zelda moving ahead of Link and Impa protecting her from Ghirahim. So instead of a transformation into Sheik, it'd be a switch to Impa. My other reasoning here is that making a "sheik" to fit the Zelda in Skyward Sword is just a bizarre idea and I would not like it much. The charm of Sheik begins and ends in Ocarina of Time.
However, if, and this is based on the Link we have, Sakurai goes for a model that is between Skyward Sword Zelda and Twilight Princess Zelda, or even, one that is closer to the one we'll get in the next Zelda ... then I feel Impa at that point will become less possible and Sheik remaining more likely.
And all things considered, I think she comes with Skyward Zelda, Zelda gets a new down B and Impa comes separate, or she doesn't come at all. I don't see her as a stand-alone character with Sheik in the game as well, particularly since I feel Link, Ganondorf and Zelda already represent the series so well, and if push came to shove then Toon Link or Ghirahim would be better choices for a fourth character if Sheik is still part of Zelda.
My last bit of argument is that Sakurai already seems to not be a huge Zelda fan and I'd rather focus went to making the triforce characters actually viable and balanced. Especially Link since he has the honor of being low tier in every game.

Want - 75%
I very much prefer to see Skyward Zelda with a switch into Impa than a random made-up Sheik to fit that Zelda. I also feel that her youthful, happy nature would lead to Zelda becoming a more light magic character with Impa being medium weight, while Palutena could assume the heavy magic character moveset.
The loss in 25% is me not wanting to see her as a standalone character over Ghirahim, Tetra or, screw it, even Groose.

Bowser Jr.
Chances - 30%
I think he's overestimated in general, but now it seems that he's the most likely Mario rep. However, I'll be part of the wishful minority and express that I'd still consider the blue Toad in the running because, f*** it, it's just more interesting.

Want - 50%
I've liked and supported the idea of Bowser Jr. for a long time, but the thing that keeps on holding me back on him is that I really really doubt he'd come with the paintbrush. He hasn't had that thing in a main game since Sunshine and when it does appear it's in sports side games, so at most it'd be a move but not its main weapon. And really, without the paintbrush he's just a tiny Bowser and that's just not exciting at all.

Predictions
Meowth - 11.64%
By god, I really feel people here overestimate Meowth. Otherwise I'd make his percentage far far lower.

Nominations
x5 Ashley
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
Joined
Jan 31, 2012
Messages
4,083
Location
Canada
Impa:

Chances: 20%
Idk, it just seems like it's possible but it also seems rather unlikely. Depends how much influence Skyward Sword has on the game.

Want: 20%
Would be okay with just Link, Zelda, Sheik and Ganon for the Zelda cast.

Bowser Jr:

Chances: 85%
Yeah without Toad around this guy just seems like a lock, and I doubt we're done with the Mario characters this early in the game. I could see Paper Mario happening and would prefer it more, but I think Paper Mario isn't different enough from normal Mario to get the spot.

Want: 95%
Freakin' love this guy.

Nomz: Dixie Kong x5
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
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But yeah, keep reading insignifcant posts from others and vote for a character you have 0% knowledge about with 1% chance and 0% want. :rolleyes:

I resent the 0% knowledge remark. I'm not going to lie, I'm not the world's foremost expert on Impa, she's a fairly minor character in my books; less so than Ruto or Error obviously, but less memorable then Kaepora Gaebora or Tingle. The reason people suggest her is because she's the right proportions to take Sheik's moveset. That happened to another Zelda character once, and sakurai's still trying to pick up the pieces. I've played the Zelda games enough to know Impa's a bad-ass lady, and she may make fantastic assist trophy material (though I still think there are better choices like Vaati if he isn't a boss), but she brings basically nothing Sheik couldn't. The main reason people flock to Impa is they're too lazy to think of a good move set for a more deserving Zelda character, and if Sakurai's that lazy then it'll be left as Zelda/Sheik.
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
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I think Kaepora Gaebora is annoying as an owl, and as a human is less memorable than Skyward Sword Impa. I don't see why someone would rate him higher than Impa.

But I agree: if it's a choice between Sheikah Impa vs. keeping Sheik and adding a more original Zelda newcomer, I'd pick the latter every time. But if we're just talking about Sheik vs. Impa I don't care that much.
 

Diddy Kong

Smash Obsessed
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26,274
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I resent the 0% knowledge remark. I'm not going to lie, I'm not the world's foremost expert on Impa, she's a fairly minor character in my books; less so than Ruto or Error obviously, but less memorable then Kaepora Gaebora or Tingle. The reason people suggest her is because she's the right proportions to take Sheik's moveset. That happened to another Zelda character once, and sakurai's still trying to pick up the pieces. I've played the Zelda games enough to know Impa's a bad-*** lady, and she may make fantastic assist trophy material (though I still think there are better choices like Vaati if he isn't a boss), but she brings basically nothing Sheik couldn't. The main reason people flock to Impa is they're too lazy to think of a good move set for a more deserving Zelda character, and if Sakurai's that lazy then it'll be left as Zelda/Sheik.

... This is what I meant? You are talking about OoT's Impa right?

I've been arguing about Skyward Sword's Impa all the time actually.
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
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I think Kaepora Gaebora is annoying as an owl, and as a human is less memorable than Skyward Sword Impa. I don't see why someone would rate him higher than Impa.
I'm not suggesting him as a fighter. I may be crazy enough to think a legless armless slime is a good idea, but not an Owl! I'm just saying he's more memorable; though his human form isn't I admit, I always felt that was more of a reference to him than a real KG appearance..
 

Glaciacott

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To be honest, I never forgot Impa, but everytime I start playing Ocarina of Time again and Gaebora appears, my reaction is "OHH YEAA! I forgot about that Owl. Whatever happens to it anyway?"
 

Cheezey Bites

Slime Knight
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... This is what I meant? You are talking about OoT's Impa right?

I've been arguing about Skyward Sword's Impa all the time actually.

Oh, sorry, I see, in that case I'd like to amend my chance to 110% and want to 2 billion...

It doesn't make much difference surely? Rather than protecting the princess and possibly turning her into Sheik she protecting the goddess and got old... in a cool twist, but given that being that old lady from the beginning of the game was the coolest thing about her that's not saying much. What difference does the iteration of skinny Impa make?
 
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