Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Everyone will have to excuse the nominations list today; for some reason, it decided to double space itself and is resisting remaining single spaced. I'll try to figure out the root of the issue tomorrow, but for now I'm deeming it "not worth the effort."

Found a computer in Costa Rica just for RTC :D

Now that's... dedication. I hope you enjoy your vacation!

Is it just me, or does anyone else see "Wario Series Newcomer" twice on the nomination post?

Working on the noms now, so I'll patch that right up. Way to point it out for me; I probably wouldn't have known otherwise.

Arino: 0% Chance

This would be the impossible rep I'd truly want.​

I think you've acknowledged the truth, Smash Daddy. I must do so too. Arino as a character certainly isn't a big enough third-party to warrant getting put in, and there's no way they'd ever put in the man himself.

Arino Want: 0%
Unfortunately, I have no attachment to him and therefore could only see him as a waste of a precious third-party slot.

Other M Ridley: 48%
I have getting Ridley at all at 60%, so this is basically saying that if he were to get in, there would be a 80% chance he'd at least have a base of his Other M design. Why am I so confident? Well, there are a number of reasons for the use of his Other M design, the first of which is the context. We can clearly see the Other M design of Samus and the featuring of Pyrosphere from Other M; why couldn't Ridley look like the rest of his series? After all, Zelda and Link are both their Twilight Princess counterparts, and I find that to be an absolutely commensurate situation. In addition, Ridley's Other M design would be easier to work with than his regular design because it's more compact (smaller wings, shorter neck, etc.). Why wouldn't they take the easy route in making him playable? The only thing that gives me pause that we've seen them use the Super Metroid design in the past and they may choose to stick with it because it's more popular and they already have experience working with it.

Other M Ridley Want: 100%
First and foremost: Ridley is Ridley. As long as he's in the game and plays like Ridley should play, I'd absolutely love him. Design doesn't really matter to me. However, being more analytical, I can't say I hate Ridley's Other M design. It's ugly, I grant you, but who cares? he's a freaking Space Dragon. If I wanted eye candy, he's not the Metroid character I would turn to, you know?

Dillon x5
W00t! Take it to the top!

DAY OVER
...WE GOT NO STYLE!​

 

[Groose]

Arino
0.20% chance
24.14% want

Other M Ridley
61.12% chance
46/37% want


Rate:
Jack Forst (Shin Megami Tensei)
A Paper Mario Stage

Predict:
Panther Caruso
Dillon

 

[BluePikmin11]

Jack Frost Chance: 2.5%
Jack Frost Want: 10%
Dillon Prediction: 6.7% Many people are going to overrate him because of his uniqueness.

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates.

 

[Rockaphin]

Jack Frost:
Can't Rate

Paper Mario Stage:
Chance: 16%
Want: 99%
I wan't Paper Mario but I doubt that'll happen, I don't think a stage is too likely either but sheesh I'd like to see more than just trophies. There's many places to pick for a stage and I would love to see something like the Glitzpit, Bowser's Floating Castle, Count Bleck's Castle, or Rogueport.

Predictions:
Panther: 0.91%
Dillon: 19.2%

Nominations:
More Team Colors x5

 

[Deleted member]

Jack Frost and Paper Mario Stage have been added to the Directory.

Jack Frost
Chance: 0%
As I said before, Atlus isn't dead dead (they're still around with Sega and such, but they aren't completely gone). However, since they are now a part of Sega, I think that the blue hedgehog melted his chances when Atlus became a part of Sega. I don't see this happening unless Sakurai views Atlus has a separate third party company; even if he does, he still has to compete against other 3rd parties like Pac-Man. His chances are sheer cold.
Want: 20%
My mind would be frozen with confusion that he got in, but he might be cool.

Paper Mario Stage
Chance: 1%
It ain't happening unless Paper Mario is in.
Want: 100%
Can we not have Paper Mario and just have The Stage?
I would love The Stage from TTYD. Think about it; things falling in the background, things falling from the ceiling, and the audience helping you or hurting you by throwing misc items. It would make for some unpredictable fun! The music would be so good too! I really want a stage like this in Smash!

Panther Caruso Prediction: .20%
He was doomed when he got nominated.
Dillon Prediction: 12.54%
I see some low scores and some high scores. This rating shall be interesting.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[andimidna]

Jack Frost:
Chance: A Shin Megami Tensei rep isn't likely
I'll say... 3%
Want: 60%
Cool design. Moveset could be neat. Alright.
Paper Mario Stage:
Paper Mario doesn't need to be playable for this to happen
1. It's still Mario. And Mario game could get a stage as long as it's notable enough. And it is.
2. Multiple series with no character have gotten stages in the past.
After Bowser's Castle and a revamped Luigi's Mansion on the 3ds, and maybe a 3d world stage and a new Rainbow Road on Wii U, it's the most likely Mario stage.
Although I''m not expecting it. So 50%
Want: 75%
Those 4 I listed I want more. This is my 5th most wanted. It has potential.

Panther: 0.9%
Dillon: 16.91%

x2 Hilda
x3 Zant

 

[Smasher 101]

@ OcarinaOfDoom and @ Smady have five extra nominations for Arino. I won for Other M Ridley.

 

[colder_than_ice]

I've added Arino and Other M Ridley to the popularity chart. Arino placed 103rd. Other M Ridley placed 15th among concepts.

Jack Frost
Chance: 0% - I just can't see it happening. Moogle, Slime, Black Mage, Chocobo, and Prinny are all bigger possibilities in the very unlikely event that we actually get a JRPG mascot third-party character.
Want: 70% - He looks pretty cool, pun not intended....
....
....
....
....
....
....Okay I confess, the pun was intended.

Paper Mario Stage
Chance: 24% - I can see this being a small possibility.
Want: 50% - It would really depend on what location was used.

Panther prediction: 0.6%
Dillon prediction: 12.34%

Nominations: <10% chance character becomes playable. x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Jack Frost

Chance - 0.95% - I'll say he has some outside chance better than most third parties, if only because of that upcoming crossover. Still very pessimistic about most third parties, however.

Want - 50% - He's legendary-ish enough as a third party to pass my aproval, but I really don't care for him.


The Stage (This is what we're nominating, right? The specific Theater Stage used as a backdrop in battles, and not just any place from the Paper Mario games, correct?)

Chance - 35% - I'd think Paper Mario has a decent chance for a stage (about 50%, I'd say), and this is the most likely pick. However, the lack of it in Sticker Star prevents most of it from going here.

Want - 60% - The audience would be the stages' saving grace.


Predictions

Panther Caruso - 5.25% - Noticeably lower than Slippy Toad.

Dillion - 11.5% - Wow, this guy was overrated. Expecting a big drop.


Nominations

Chrom Assist Trophy X5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Jack Frost - 0%

With Atlus now being owned by Sega, his chances are effectively exterminated.

Want - 70%

Never played one of his games, but a character with a moveset based around ice powers seems very interesting to me.


Paper Mario Stage - 10%

If Paper Mario himself isn't playable, I don't think we would see a Paper Mario stage.

Want - 60%

Depends on the location. There are a lot of interesting locations to choose from in the Paper Mario series.

Panther Caruso Prediction - 1.26%


Dillon Prediction - 12.05%


Happy Mask Salesman x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Frost: 0%
Want: 0%
PM S: 20%
Want: 75%
Pantha: 0.87%
Dillon: 9.56%
EDIT: OMASTAR x 10

 

[Pacack]

Jack Frost:

Chance: 0%
Non-legendary third party that's now technically a part of SEGA too.

Want: 5%
Eh, an ice moveset would be cool, but not cool enough to warrant a third party slot.

Paper Mario Stage:

Chance: 15%
Not as unlikely as some, but not exactly likely either.

Want: 51%
Would be interesting, but I'm practically indifferent.

Predictions:

Panther: 2.33%?
Dillon: 11%

Nominations: x5 Snake

 

[Karafuru]

Hee ho! The time for Jack Frost is now! :3

Jack Frost:
Chance: 1.3%
Frost had a decent shot at getting into the game, appearing on 19 different games for Nintendo systems, but this is no longer the case though. With Atlus being purchased by SEGA, Frost now has a snowball's chance in hell. The only way I could see it working if Atlus is not considered part of SEGA or it was before the purchase.
Want: 100%
Frost is that one character I would want that I know would have slim chances of getting into the game. He's the mascot of one of my favorite game companies and I find the design appealing and cool. I know it won't happen, but maybe for the next game...hopefully?

Paper Mario Stage:
Chance: 20%
-I can see it happening, but it isn't as likely without Paper Mario is not playable.
Want: 20%
-Smeh.

@Brawler610, I don't think it is even fair to say that Atlus is dead at all. Like Axle said earlier, they are working on 3 Persona games at the moment. And after Sega's purchase, they announced they will be localizing four of the games...I don't think that would mean they're dead at all...Index is, but not Atlus.


EDIT:
Prediction:
Panther: .24%
Dillon: 15.3%

Nominations:
3x Gardevoir
2x Tiki

 

[Smady]

I cannot believe I won Arino's prediction.

Jack Frost

5% Chance: A third-party automatically gets a single-digit score unless it is a special circumstance, reserved for legendary characters or those who fall into a grey area of ownership (second-party, disputed). Jack Frost is neither owned by Nintendo or legendary enough to be a true consideration for Smash Bros. That is, however, only to say his inclusion would be very surprising and it is by far not impossible.

Atlus is an important company in today's video games, they represent a significant chunk of hardcore Japanese players and Western RPG fans. They have the incredibly popular Persona and iconic Shin Megami Tensei, on top of dozens of other popular licenses. There is no way that SEGA's new ownership lessens Atlus' importance and Jack Frost is their mascot. A perfect candidate for this enduringly popular developer.

100% Want: Jack Frost is a versatile monster that can be captured in most of Atlus' role-playing games in the Shin Megami Tensei franchise, including the mainline series and branch-offs (Persona, Devil Summoner). His move pool is usually the weakest ice spell (Bufu), a healing spell (Dia), sometimes a second-level ice spell (Bufula) and an ice-element buff and nerf (Ice Boost or Ice Break, for example). It's a classic ice monster.

If that were simply it, I wouldn't care. But Jack Frost has a fun little demonic/playful personality. Alongside his "brother" Pyro Jack, you will generally see pranks, goofiness and immaturity coming out of the two that can be translated into an amusing moveset that makes it more than simply an ice-based set. He represents the fun and creative side of Atlus, freezing the competition over and laughing all the while.

As an Atlus fan and seeing what else they have on offer, Jack Frost is the best choice. He's a fun, kid-friendly mascot who is devious, but cute and cuddly enough to be a cuddly toy. The other reps the company could have don't fit nearly as well and an Atlus rep would be excellent.

Paper Mario Stage

20% Chance: I way over-estimated this, everyone's much more pessimistic about it than I thought and I can't blame them, Paper Mario's chances are shot. That does, probably, hurt the chances of a Paper Mario stage quite badly, which is a shame as there is plenty of good stuff to choose. If you factor in the lack of any Paper Mario content in Brawl besides the trophies, music (I think?) and stickers, it looks grim.

55% Want: I am largely indifferent to this as a non-player of the Paper Mario games. I've been meaning to play Thousand Year Door and what I've seen of that game leaves a huge space open for a great Smash Bros stage, but I doubt Sakurai will represent such an old game. What is most likely for a Paper Mario stage is Sticker Star, which I would begrudgingly accept.

To be honest most of the popular ideas for a Mario stage don't appeal to me because they seem like overdone cliches. Bowser's Castle we've seen a million times in Mario games and there's nothing fun to explore in a stage. Peach's castle is more unique and interesting in my opinion. At least if Sakurai added a Paper Mario stage, it may have something new that isn't another gimmick-filled scrolling stage.

Panther Prediction: 1.25%
Even Peppy and Slippy I'd think would be popular over Panther.
Dillon Prediction: 10%
A ballpark estimate lower than the original chance score, no clue about this character, may abstain.

Happy Mask Salesman x10

 

[Chandeelure]

-Jack Frost:
Chances: 0%
Want: 0%

-Paper Mario Stage:
Chances: 21%
Want: 65%

-Panther Prediction: 2,1%

-Dillon Prediction: 20%

-Nomination: Chrom X5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Jack Frost: 0.4%

HEE HO

Want: 50%
HEE HO

Paper Mario stage: 40%
Not really sure what would make a good PM stage, since there's already a boxing ring.

Want: 48%
I'm less interested in the setting than the characters.

Panther Caruso prediction: 0.55%
Dillon prediction: 19.02%

Nominate:
Isabelle x1
Elite Beat Agents x4

 

[Deleted member]

@Brawler610, I don't think it is even fair to say that Atlus is dead at all. Like Axle said earlier, they are working on 3 Persona games at the moment. And after Sega's purchase, they announced they will be localizing four of the games...I don't think that would mean they're dead at all...Index is, but not Atlus.

I meant that the index was dead; Atlus isn't of course. I just feel like the chances of an Atlus character are dead.

 

[NickerBocker]

Jack Frost
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

PM Stage
Chance: 25%
Want: 75%

There's a lot of choices for a stage, and nearly all of them would be enjoyable. Whether it be Rogueport, Toad Town, Star Valley, Ice Palace, etc. It would be a welcome addition on my end. Even if it was a famous Mario location in Paper form, that would be cool as well.

Panther: 4.6%
Dillon: 21.2%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[Karafuru]

I meant that the index was dead; Atlus isn't of course. I just feel like the chances of an Atlus character are dead.

Oh, okay. I see your point now, but an Atlus rep certainly has slim chances as unfortunate as that is for me.

 

[Smasher 101]

Jack Frost's chances: 0% - Becoming part of Sega really hurt this.
Want: 30% - Meh.

Paper Mario stage: 3% - Shoe-in if Paper Mario gets in, but probably not happening if he doesn't. I gave him a 3%, so this also gets a 3%.
Want: 80% - Would probably be cool.

Panther prediction: 0.35% - Least likely Star Fox character we've rated thus far.
Dillon prediction: 16.58% - Large drop.

Zoroark x10

 

[Glaciacott]

Jack Frost
Chances - 0%
While part of a company that is giving the world quality titles, the fact in the end of it all is that for the third party slot there are a lot more iconic figures that would merit the spot. Jack Frost is not at that same level of figures like Snake, Pac-Man, etc.

Want - 0%
Not iconic enough, doesn't really belong in the game imo

Paper Mario stage
Chance - 5%
I guess it could happen, but I find it more likely that it won't. I feel like Mario stages would draw from the platformers, and I doubt we'd see a Mario RPG stage of any sort without first seeing some sort of Mario RPG representation, whether it's from Super Mario RPG or Paper Mario or Mario and Luigi. I also feel like while the 3DS would normally boost the chances of stages, the fact that the Paper Mario series is strongest in consoles (do not talk to me of sticker star) means that the 3DS having different stages doesn't really help this much.

Want - 100%
Just imagining the music alone makes me squeal in excitement. This would be a phenomenal inclusion and I would forever find myself playing in it.

Panther prediction: 1.75%
Dillon: 14.8%
Genuinely clueless on what to predict.

Nominations
x5 Balloon Fight stage

 

[FalKoopa]

Jack Frost:
Likelihood: 0%
Since Atlus was bought by Sega, his already low chances took quite a big hit.

Want: 5%
Don't know him well enough to want him.

Paper Mario Stage:
Likelihood: 35%
I personally think that a Sticker Star stage is quite likely for the 3DS version, but I don't think that a Paper Mario stage is all that likely for the Wii U version, despite the rich history on the consoles.

Want: 100%
Sure. I'd love to see it happen. The original and the TTYD are among my favourite games of all time.

Panther Caruso prediction: 0.5%
Dillon prediction: 26%

Wild Gunman x 5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Jack Frost Chances: 0%. Other 3rd parties.
Want: 0%. Pac-man and Black Mage.
PM Stage Chances: 10%. Unless Paper Mario gets in, this is low.
Want: 20%. Lineland or bust.
Panther: 4.3%. Just not happening.
Dillon: 30.2%. This is going to be mixed.
Dedede Arena X2
Leif X2
50+ Characters X1

 

[YoshiandToad]

Jack Frost:
Chance: 0%
Seems harsh, right? But Jack Frost isn't anywhere near the household name that Sonic, Megaman, Solid Snake or Pac-Man are. Not what I'd personally call legendary and I can't see it happening at this point.

Want: 0%
Pac-Man first. Bomberman second. Maybe Rayman third. Hell, I'd take Tails over Jack Frost too.

Paper Mario Stage:
Chance: 20%
It SHOULD be much higher, but Paper Mario gets very little love in Smash outside collectables.

Want: 100%
I actually want a Paper Mario Stage more than I want Paper Mario. Especially if said stage turns out to be the amazing Glitz Pit from The Thousand Year Door. If we get a Rawk Hawk stage hazard with a cheering crowd of various Mario species, this stage can do no wrong in my eyes.

Predictions:
Panther: 3%
Krystal is next in line. Slippy and Leon are probably better choices first too. And Peppy, but we all know he's a Steel Diver character now:

Dillon: 22%
He'll drop, but I doubt it'll be quite as extreme as some have suggested. Preparing to be wrong!

Nominations:

5 X RTC Top Ten Member AT

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Jack Frost: 0/0
I'm sorry, I don't even like Shin Megami Tensei to give him a decent want score. I like Atlus (particularly Etrian Odyssey, but I'm also a Trauma Center fan), but SMT isn't to my taste. As for chances... well it's Sega now, and moreover when it comes to jRPGs Square Enix basically has a lockdown. Chocobo or Slime are way way way way way more legendary, and as such more likely... even Prinny is a little more legendary imho...


Paper Mario Stage: 35%
2 games, both have a shot at getting a stage. When it comes to spin-offs though Paper Mario is a bit of a side-dish to the more accepted sports/kart games. Still think that second game gives Pape Mario a good shot at a stage, but there's so much competition in Mario.

Want: 90%
I depends on the stage, but there are plenty of great places in Super Paper Mario, and even Sticker Star that could make great stages.



Jungle Animal: 2.62%
Desert Animal: 26.2%



Hero of Light*5

 

[loganhogan]

Jack Frost
chance 1% I think he's got too much competition in the name of bigger Sega guys.
want 0%

Paper Mario
chance 70% Seems very likely to me Paper Mario is a strong series.
want 50%

x5 Dr. Lobe

 

[Aqua Rock X]

JACK FROST

Chance: 0% - Non-legendary third party.

Want: 0% - I'm fine with the third parties we already have.

PAPER MARIO STAGE

Chance: 55% - Likely I think, considering Sticker Star.

Want: 65% - Throw in an Anti-guy stage hazard (or three) and then we'll talk.

Panther Caruso Prediction: 1.2% - Not really big in the Star Fox Smash community.

Dillion Prediction: 3.5% - Some might think he'd be a Sonic clone.

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[Groose]

Jack Frost: 1%
He's a third-party who initially seems to be viable; his franchise is pretty tight with Nintendo and an opportunity for communication could definitely arise. Unfortunately, that's about it; he's on some shaky legal situation that would make him especially difficult to acquire. He's not impossible, but I wouldn't put any faith at all in him.

Jack Frost Want: 0%
Never got into Shim Megami. I don't really have any attachment to him, and I'm not sold enough on his design to cede a third-party slot to him.

Paper Mario Stage Chance: 40%
It's definitely in if he is; if not, there still is a pretty solid chance as they have two games worth of stages to create, this one would be relatively simple, and Paper Mario is a pretty big name. Still, I'm not expecting it because Smash has been less than kind to the Mario spin-offs in the past, and I see no real reason why this would change.

Paper Mario Stage Want: 75%
I'd like The Stage or the Glitz Pitz. Still, I"m not getting hyped over this stage like I did some of the others.

Jill Dozer x5
Might as well, eh?

DAY OVER...I can't think of a cool pun right now. Darn.​

 

[Groose]

Jack Frost
0.68% chance
25.91% want
Those were some pretty cold chance scores, guys. It looks like Jack may be left out in the cold. That wasn't very ice of you all. /icepuns

Paper Mario Stage
25.90% chance
68.77% want
Well, that want score certainly didn't fall very flat!

Today we're rating Panther Caruso, the third man on the Star Wolf team. Please keep in mind that all who see his rose meet death, and please rate Panther Caruso in chance and want. In addition, Nintendo's resident western character will be returning to duel again today; will he be able to maintain his 30+% chance score? Please rate Dillon in chance and want.

Get ready to draw! Tomorrow we'll be rating the Wild Gunman, a classic Nintendo character who rivals Dillon and Sheriff for Nintendo's "Wild West Star" title. In addition... that's it. I've had it. 3/25/14, Groose resigns from RTC. I refuse to run another Omastar day. Lord Helix himself will be coming in tomorrow for a second rating. Please predict this duos scores.

That was not serious, but it was.

 

[McDuckletts]

Um...Groose, are you sure you chose the right picture for Panther in the OP?

Panther
Chance: 0.1%
He's pretty much on the same boat as Leon. Not likely at all.
Want: 0%
I have no personal connection to Panther so yeah

Dillon
Chance: 5%
Dillon is one of Nintendo's more recent IPs and he could represent the eShop I guess, but maybe he's a little too recent? If his game was released before 2012, than he would seem like a more feasible choice. Unless Sakurai knew about his game before the development of Smash 4, he seems like a bit of a pipe dream.
Want: 80%
He would, however, be a character I would love to see. Armadillos are awesome, the wild west is awesome, and Dillon's Rolling Western was...pretty good.

Predictions
Wild Gunman: 0.32%
Omastar: 0.04%
Reminder that we're re-rating Omastar before Snake...

Solid Snake X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dillon Chance: 7.5% Despite his uniqueness, I believe he does not have enough decent merits to make it in as playable.
Dillon Want: 5% The game felt really meh to me (I only played the first one).

Wild Gunman Prediction: 0.65% Not much franchise revival potential IMO, but would be a cool character.

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates.

 

[Deleted member]

Panther and Dillon have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Dillon before, check to see what you said on his day!

Oh dear god no... we are rating THIS character?
Panther
Chance: 0%
Why should Panther be in Smash? He is far from a Nintendo All-Star.
Panther was introduced in Assault and he tries to have Krystal dump Fox for him and that came into play in the multiple endings in Command.
Beyond this, what is so significant about him? He has absolutely no reason to exist as a character. He was in Assault for the love sub-plot, no other reasons at all. Heck, if Star Fox Adventures was still Dinosaur Planet, I bet that Panther would never exist at all.
Other than that, what does Panther have in terms of helping him get in Smash? ...Nothing. Panther doesn't have the longevity that Slippy, Peppy, and Leon have and he isn't as popular as Krystal. He has absolutely no requests to get in Smash; who is really pulling for this guy? He is definitely behind these characters and he would be absolutely impossible for him to be playable. Even if he is semi-clone material, he is still behind those characters. It doesn't help that, like Krystal, his recent appearance was Brawl, meaning Star Fox newcomers who will download Star Fox 64 on the Virtual Console or get the 3DS version will have no idea who this character is.
Overall, Panther is just an insignificant Star Fox character and if he got added, I can only imagine the flooded amounts of disappointment that would come.
Want: 0%
Looking at the state of Star Fox now, it's a giant mess and this character is the face of it for me. Yes, I view Panther as the symbol of the horrid things that have happened in Star Fox instead of Krystal.
Want to have Fox and Krystal get together? OK, fine. Panther then comes along in Assault and this stupid love thing comes into play. It's just... fanfiction, awful fanfiction. I don't care for the romantic conflicts between Fox and Krystal! I just want to shoot things down in a laser shooting, Smart Bomb throwing, barrel-rolling Arwing! That's what Star Fox is!
As much crap as I gave to Krystal on her day and on Slippy's and Leon's day where I mentioned that they are better than her, I would rather see her get in Smash than Panther. Panther would just be an utter disappointment and a tremendous waste of a slot.

Dillon
Chance: 10%
Let'sa see what I gave Dillon before... a 33%?
I don't agree with that rating. Granted, while Dillon is a notable character for his eShop titles, I don't think that he is going to get in Smash. He seems a bit undeserving, don't you think?
What I mean is, I don't think that Dillon is ready to get a slot on the roster. He is popular, but he hasn't truly defined himself as a Nintendo All-Star yet. I dunno how popular is among the Smash fans, but even the research Chrono did when finding what Japan wants didn't mention Dillon at all. Rolling Western isn't going to get repped before Xenoblade, Golden Sun, Advance Wars, and several other Nintendo IPs do.
I guess he could get in if Sakurai wants to have a character represent the eShop, but even then I am skeptical that he would do that.
Want: 20%
Meh... decreased interest over time.

Wild Gunman Prediction: 2.82%
He's retro. I see some 1s and 5s around these parts.
Omastar Prediction: .41%
I swear to god, Omastar gets above 1%, I will lose faith.

EDIT: @ Groose , make this the image for Omastar tomorrow:

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[LoneKonWolf]

panther Caruso (chance and want) - 0%
the only character from star fox with a chance is Krystal, and slippy barley comes up with just not even a single percent, I also do not want him either, he'll be the one disappointment character that'll blow everything off of starfox in smash
Dillon - 12.50%
basically an darkhorse, he has more merits that put him above others though, its basically if the eshop gets an representative and if he's not too recent. . . if
want - 100%
I love the wild west, I like the design and possible gameplay, and I love his games. he's one of my favorite choices and hopes he gets in
wild gunman - 3.75%
i'm guessing around half of sheriffs level
omastar - 0.03%
and doom shall fall on the helix fossil
nominations:
pirate ship (legend of Zelda)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Panther: 0/0
Starfox is honestly over-repped in brawl, and has a shot (small as it may be) of getting Krystal.


Dillon: 23%
High ball. Dillon just suits the game so well, but that doesn't mean he won't be an AT... Being new, eShop and the go-to face of new Nintendo IPs (despite there being plenty of others, this is the one people gravitate to) are his biggest factors, and give him a decent shot of crossing the playable boundary. If nothing else we're getting him as an AT/stage hazard, but I think his playable chance is just short of a quarter.

Want: 100%
I love Dillon, and would really like to see the series become one of Nintendo's big IPs... plus the character just looks so cool!



Wild Gunman: 3.2%
Retro-flation. Sheriff is more retro, and more important though.

Omastar: 0.8%
Pity votes.



Hero of Light*10



Also: Can someone explain the hand-egg joke in the OP to an uninformed Brit?

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Panther Caruso - 0%

Extremely insignificant and very unpopular Starfox character. The only Starfox character with a chance is Krystal, who's best shot was back around Brawl's time. Heck, I bet even Slippy would get in before this guy, at least he's one of the more iconic Starfox characters.

Want - 0%

Haven't played any Starfox games myself honestly, but from what I do know, he isn't a very interesting character. And I'm certain he cannot bring anything new into Smash. I see him as one who would be a pure waste of a slot.

Dillon - 20%

From what I've read on Wikipedia, Dillon's Rolling Western recieved mixed reviews, and being a relatively new eShop game, Dillon doesn't have much of a chance, but he isn't impossible.

Want - 60%

Yet another game I haven't played but really want to. Dillon does seem to have potential, but aside from that I'm mostly indifferent to him.

Wild Gunman Prediction - 4.02%

Retroness.

Omastar Prediction - 0.5%

Omaster again?

I pray it is no higher than this.

Happy Mask Salesman x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Panther Caruso

Chance - 0% - Way down there. Way outclassed by many in a series that is unlikely to get another character in the first place. He's got a long ways to go. Also, I'm using "way" way too much.

Want - 20% - No way. Not completely in the hate range, but a ways into "should not be in."


Dillion

Chance - 15% - Whoa, 35% was what I gave him last time?! Yikes. While my thoughts really haven't changed at all, I think getting used to handing out high scores like candy gave him a bit of an increase. I'll be pussing it down.

Want - 60% - Could be interesting, but I don't necessarily support him.


Predictions

Wild Gunman - 3.25% - He's Sheriff without being as important. He's doomed.

Omastar - 0.05% - I swear, if we have to rerate Yarne and Orwain again, I might consider nominating Scrooge again. We shouldn't need to nominate charaters who we know have no chance. (Except when Hades is around. Hades can do whatever he wants.)

Nominations
Chrom Assist Trophy X5

@ Groose - I was going to use Sheriff as a baseline for Predictions, but he's not on the Results page. Might want to fix that.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Panther:
Chance: 0%(at this point)
Panther is simply not getting in before Krystal and maybe Slippy, Leon and/or Peppy. He's less important, recognizable and popular than all of them.

Want: 0%
Sorry Panther, but again I don't want you in before the above characters. Or at all. In fact take your rose and plant it where the sun doesn't shine son, because you're not wanted here.

Dillon:
Chance: 35%
Sakurai's biggest gripe in Brawl(or one of them) was the lack of potential fighters post-Pikmin that were available. Dillon is a fantastic addition, representing eshop and download titles who many agree would be a pretty cool character to add. His downfalls are he's just as likely to either be an Assist Trophy or just a standard trophy due to the series(and in fact ALL eshop titles) being relative unknowns to Joe Public.
He did however do well enough to spawn a sequel, so that says something, and Dillon is probably the best option for an eshop rep.

Want: 100%
Dillon is a fantastic addition that would be a surprise to me. A pleasant one at that. A cowboy armadillo who uses gun turrets, can dig and spindash? Sure Sonic's got the latter part, but Dillon's a little too nifty looking for me not to want. I have yet to play his game, which looks and sounds fantastic, but the moment I obtain some new eshop points Dillon's Rolling Western 1 is top of my list for "Must Buy"...I'll get the sequel if it excites me as much as I hope it will.

Predictions:
Wild Gunman: 2%
And only because he's retro. I'd still rather have Dillon as my cowboy character.

Omastar: 2% (again? For ****s sake this is worse than Yarne and Owain)
Because someone's bound to push his number up after Twitch Plays Pokemon.

Nominations:
Nikki X 5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Panther Chances: 0%. Another Star Fox character is really unlikely, but he's so unlikely he makes Slippy, Krystal, and possibly even Peppy look like shoo-ins.
Want: 0%. See that red zero? It marks your immanent death.
Dillon Chances: 20%. Starfy took a big blow to his chances (even Shulk's chances got lowered) plus he was only kinda likely to begin with.
Want: 40% OK, but I wouldn't care.
A Wild Gunman appeared!: 2.25%. Call the Sheriff!
Omastar: 0.6%. Not again.
Dedede Arena X2
Leif X2
50+ Characters X1

I swear, if we have to rerate Yarne and Orwain again, I might consider nominating Scrooge again.

DO IT.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Jack Frost and Paper Mario stage have been added to the popularity chart. Jack Frost placed 96th. Paper Mario is the second most wanted stage after Bowser's Castle.

Panther
Chance: 0% - He needs to get in line behind Krystal, Slippy, Peppy, and Leon.
Want: 0% - I'm not a fan.

Dillon
Chance: 13% - His only chance of being playable is if Sakurai decides that Eshop needs a rep.
Want: 23% - I'm not a big fan of cowboys and westerns.

Wild Gunman prediction: 1.5%
Omastar prediction: 0.04%

Nominations: <10% chance character becomes playable. x5

 

[loganhogan]

Panther
chance 1% I'd say Starfox reached its limit but if they give the series a newcomer I believe Krystal and Slippy are the frontrunners.
want 0%

Dillon
chance 35% Fresh new ip but it could be too new for smash bros. If he misses out this time I think he'll be a newcomer in the next game if Nintendo keeps their interest on his series.
want 25%

x2 Barbara the Bat
x1 Jill Dozer
x1 Dr. Wright
x1 Dr. Lobe