Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Pacack]

Sora:

Chance: 7%
Mainly depends on where Sakurai draws the line for "legendary".

Want: 60%
Indifferent, but he's my bro's second most wanted.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:

Chance: 17%
Not seeing it. Mainly because of uniqueness seemingly being key this time around.

Want: 55%
I would check her (them?) out, but I'd rather have Ganon, Tingle, and/or Impa. That said, I enjoy Zelda, so...maybe I'd enjoy a faster clone of her.

Prediction:
Balloon Fighter: 1%
Gangplank Galleon: 34%

Nominations: x5 Takamaru

 

[andimidna]

(t) 135. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want

Wow. Dem stats. He's so high on the wanted list, even in the top 10. Yet is in the bottom 3 for likelihood. Woah. I wonder how a re-vote on this would affect his score...

 

[Pacack]

(t) 135. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want

Wow. Dem stats. He's so high on the wanted list, even in the top 10. Yet is in the bottom 3 for likelihood. Woah. I wonder how a re-vote on this would affect his score...

It would probably get even lower.

 

[andimidna]

It would probably get even lower.

As in what numbers for which?
just changed my nominations to them x3 and x2 Tiki, I'm curious

 

[Pacack]

As in what numbers for which?
just changed my nominations to them x3 and x2 Tiki, I'm curious

I expect both scores to go even further into extremes if they're re-voted.

 

[AustarusIV]

Sora
Chance: 0%
Nope. Sorry, I don't think he has even a ghost of a chance of making it in the Super Smash Bros. series, ever.

Want: 40%
OK, I'll admit. Kingdom Hearts I and II were some of my favorite games as a kid, and I still regard them with fond memories. But still, there are much better Square-Enix reps to choose from, characters that are more decidedly legendary. The Slime from Dragon Quest or the Black Mage from Final Fantasy would make better additions.

Toon Zelda & Tetra:
Chance: 30%
Toon Zelda is already kind of a dark horse candidate in my eyes, considering her unused Brawl data and popularity amongst Japanese fans. But I still see her chances as being pretty slim, even with Tetra.

Want: 15%
I'm not really interested in another Zelda rep.

Nominations: x5 Lip

 

[Keto]

Sora's chance: 1% - Even 1% may be high, but KH did have a few games on a Nintendo handheld. I don't remember which one though. Sora is popular enough and would blend well with the other fighters, but there are higher priority 3rd parties to include before him.

Sora want: 70% - I played the first KH and I would welcome him into the smash universe.

Toon Zelda & Tetra's chance: 5% - I don't see how adding another Zelda character with Tetra.. who is also Zelda would add uniqueness to the game. There would be essentially 4 Zeldas and 2 Links..

Toon Zelda & Tetra want: 0%

Balloon Fighter: 2.34%
Gangplank Galleon: 10.86%

Sandbag x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Sora
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 10%

No thanks, and he's not likely. Both Disney and Squenix would have to agree upon it. There's better reps from Squenix as well.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 35%
Want: 25%

Let me be clear: this concept would be stolen right from Zelda/Shiek. The idea that you can change characters mid battle is unique to her, and putting Zetra in would be not unique whatsoever. However she was considered for Brawl, so that is why she gets a good chance rating. I would much prefer Tetra alone, she would be fine by herself, plus adding another moveset to her (most likely a clone) would be disappointing. There are other good choices for a Zelda character.

Nominations:
Lupus x5

Balloon Figher: 0.7%
Gangplank Galleon: 45%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Sora - 0.3%

Sora has a huge number of obstacles in his way:

Generally the Kingdom Hearts games that are on Nintendo systems are not that important to the main storyline overall, except for Dream Drop Distance on the 3DS.

Second, third party additions must be "legendary". Sora, while relatively well known, is nowhere near the levels of Pac-man, and all other third parties that have been introduced into the Smash series thus far. He would never get in before Pac-man or Snake making a comeback. And five third party characters, I can safely say without a shadow of a doubt, will not happen for a number of reasons. Four isn't much of a stretch, but five seems unreasonable for this games, it'd be asking for too much, especially since the only truly famous third party characters left that have yet to be confirmed are Pac-man and Snake.

Lastly, Sakurai would have to go out of his way, since negotiations would most likely involve both Square Enix, and Disney themselves.

All in all, every reason is a huge obstacle that makes his chance next to nothing already, combined together, I simply cannot see him getting in. At least however, he is eligible, having appeared on some Nintendo systems after all.

Want - 90%

I absolutely love the Kingdom Hearts games, and I think Sora would make a fine addition to Smash, though particularly moveset-wise.

Toon Zelda/Tetra - 62%

I'm not entirely sure why. I just feel rather confident on them compared to other potential Zelda newcomers. On one hand, Toon Zelda was planned for Brawl, (albeit, likely with a "Toon Sheik".... as a transformation) and is a relatively popular newcomer, among other potential Zelda newcomers at least, not so much when compared to many other potential newcomers from other franchises. So here the question lies whether Sakurai would like to revisit this idea or not. For all we know, Sakurai may have either decided against the idea at some point, or simply didn't add her due to running out of time. Even if the latter is the case, his thoughts on Toon Zelda could have changed as well. On the other hand, since uniqueness seems to be a huge thing this time around, this serves as an obstacle for her as well.

Tetra does have some potential to be unique though, so if Sakurai does want to revisit Toon Zelda in addition to wanting to add the more unique Tetra, I could see this happening, but overall it's not all that likely.

Want - 100%

One of my most wanted newcomers are these two as a pair. I'm a huge fan of Zelda, and I took a liking to the particular versions of Link and Zelda in the cel-shaded games, as well as Tetra. I'd like to try playing as a faster, smaller Zelda, and I see some potential in Tetra as a pirate character.

Balloon Fighter Prediction - 1.22

Gangplank Galleon Prediction - 40.12%


2 DK newcomers x5

 

[andimidna]

My theory: He had 5 Mario characters planned (the Melee 5)
5 Pokemon planned (Brawl + Mewtwo)
And only 3 Zelda characters, Link, Shelda, Dorf.

This seemed unfair, so when he saw the requests for Wind Waker Link, he decided to add a clone near the end of development. (similar to the ones in Melee)
Around this time is also when he added Wolf, Jigglypuf, and Sonic.
Possibly, Sakurai wanted to see them equal, so he tried to fit in another Zelda clone, so instead of adding Toon Ganondorf, he wanted to add Toon Zelda and Toon Sheik or Tetra. The only reason Ganondorf is a CFalcon clone, is because of their body shape, and Toon Ganondorf has a different body shape than Ganondorf in OoT and TP. So it made sense.
However, due to time constraints, Mewtwo and Dr. Mario were cut (Roy also made it this far) which meant (to equal back up) this concept was removed.
Would he revisit the concept of two clones, one of which never even existing in a Zelda game? I don't think so. I mean... Sheik's cool, but do you really think Sheik deserves 2 slots?
I bet he'll add in Mewtwo. And I think Dixie will be added but will have no relation to her possible appearance in Brawl.
Roy is a maybe, Dr. Mario is good for an alt.

Is my theory plausible?

 

[Curious Villager]

Sora

Chance: 0.2
Don't really see him happening.
Want: 0
Don't really care much about him.

Toon Zelda with Tetra

Chance: 65%
Sometimes I kinda feel people underestimate the chances of this duo a little too much from happening, mostly because of people's own biases against Toon Zelda. Yet if we do get another Zelda newcomer, I can't really see it being anyone else but these two making it in as a transformation of each other.

The only other two Zelda contenders I could realistically see happening are Impa and Tingle and even their chances aren't very relatively good compared to those two. Not to mention that if Tingle were to be made playable, he'd most likely just represent his own series so he isn't really "going to stop" Toon Zelda + Tetra from happening or whatever.

Somehow I feel the Spirit Train stage bodes well for Toon Zelda as they will probably use that for her trailer or promotional artwork like they did for the other newcomers, so I think we will probably see the Pirate Ship stage return for Tetra as well (or at least a new version of it). Then there is also that mysterious Phantom, some speculate that it's a new move for Zelda, an assist trophy or even a hidden early reveal of Toon Zelda's final smash. (hence the apparently pink armor but no pink eyes) As we don't know too much about it at this point of time and how secretive Sakurai is being with it, I suppose any of these three goes at this point. But that's all just speculation on my part.

Anyway, to cut a long story short. If we do get another Zelda newcomer, I'd say these two are the most likely.

Want: 100%
Yeah sure, their not my most wanted characters but I love Wind Waker and I'd love to see the both of them making it in, personally I don't really feel it would be right to only have one but not the other so I do hope they both make it in. Regardless if people have some personal vendetta against one of them.

Balloon Fighter prediction: 1.20%

Gangplank Galleon predicition: 43.55%

Nomination: Lip x5

 

[Groose]

(t) 135. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want

Wow. Dem stats. He's so high on the wanted list, even in the top 10. Yet is in the bottom 3 for likelihood. Woah. I wonder how a re-vote on this would affect his score...

The people who gave him above a flat out zero percent in chance were just taking pity. The people that gave him low want scores... wait... nobody gave him low want scores. #RarewareForever #DarnYouMicrosoft



KEYBLADEGUY'S RATING:
Sora:
Chance: 4% - Sora while a popular character, is not going to make it - arguably Kingdom Hearts is Square's most popular franchise behind Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy, but Square and Nintendo seem to be going seperate ways - aside from Slime or Black Mage, the two Square characters with Mario crossovers, i doubt we'll ever see one in true Smash.
That said, Square Enix's newest "thing" Lightning has an even LOWER CHANCE. She's had only one appearance on Nintendo to Sora's 4, and is regarded generally as a Playstation character. And the one game she did have was Theatrythm FF - a music spin off.
Want: 100% - I'm a Kingdom Hearts fan, and want to bash Villager and the other Smashers with his Keyblade. Sue me.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:
Chance: 10% - At this point I doubt we'll get a Zelda character, but if we do she's my top choice and arguably most likely, with Skull Kid down, Tingle hated in America, and Ghirahim being a one-timer.
Want: 80% - I do want her, but i won't hate Sakurai if he doesn't add her.

 

[Deleted member]

Sora and Toon Zelda/Tetra have been added to the Directory.
If you've rated Toon Zelda/Tetra before, check to see what you said on their days!

Ugh… Sora…
Chance: 0%
Let me list out why Sora wouldn't get in Smash:
1. Sora may have his fans as they would demand for him to get in Smash, but this demand failed in PlayStation All-Stars: Battle Royale. What will change here?
2. Sora is more of a Sony character than a Nintendo character. Yes, you have three titles on Nintendo handhelds, but none of the main iterations are on Nintendo consoles. Kingdom Hearts 3 isn't coming to the Wii U.
3. Sora's fan demand is NOTHING compared to the demand of Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Snake, Bomberman, Simon Belmont, and Layton. He's just small fry compared to them.
4. This is Square Enix we are talking about here and they are strict. Why would they choose Sora over characters like Slime, Black Mage, or Moogle?
5. Square Enix doesn't really have a relationship with Nintendo. They seem very distant from them; I highly doubt this will change now.
6. One of the main appeals of Kingdom Hearts are the Disney characters. Getting Sora in Smash would be more work than it's worth since they would have to get the rights to various Square Enix characters and Disney characters.
7. Speaking of Disney, if you are going to get the rights to their characters, wouldn't it be more wise if you added Mickey Mouse instead? It sounds weird yes, but he could be more profitable than Sora.
EDIT: 8. Sakurai said that 3rd party characters are special cases that are in leagues of their own. Is it safe to call Sora legendary yet? I have a hard time putting him next to Sonic, Mega Man, and Snake, all of which are legendary 3rd parties in Smash. Even then, Bomberman, Pac-Man, and Simon Belmont are more legendary than him.
I have stated my reasons. Sora has no reason to get into Smash.
Want: -100%
Yes. Another negative.
I am tired of when I see this guy get requested for Smash. Do I hate the character? No. (but he is a freaking idiot, failing to save a girl who is two feet in front of him) It's just completely stupid and highly illogical. He would just take up too much time for reasons stated above that the time used to develop other characters would go to getting Sora and other Disney characters.
Sora… just stay away from Smash Bros.!

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 28%
A bit of an increase from before.
Honestly, not much as changed. We have Phantom Zelda shown, but we don't know what it is. All we know is that it exists. I don't think that this will prevent Toon Zelda from getting into Smash. However, she isn't the most unique character. Sakurai may of had her on his mind during Brawl, but I dunno if this will prevail here if Toon Zelda is pretty much going to get in as a semi-clone. Tetra would be more unique than Toon Zelda, so it's a shame that she would have to get in Smash with Toon Zelda.
I just feel as though one of her downfalls is her lack of uniqueness. Looking at the newcomers thus far, Toon Zelda wouldn't offer as much as others would and she would seem like a last minute addition.
Want: 25%
That 25% is solely towards Tetra. As I've mentioned on her day, I like the character and I would enjoy her inclusion in Smash. Toon Zelda… not so much. I hate having two of the same character on the roster and Toon Zelda is no exception.

Balloon Fighter Prediction: .12%
I sense that there might be some sympathy for Balloon Fighter. I just find this guy to be borderline disconfirmed.
Gangplank Galleon Prediction: 33.73%
King K. Rool hype will increase this stage's scores.

Nominations: MONADO! LEND US YOUR POWER! (Shulk) 5x
I made a post and it's incredibly long! In fact, 3000 words long! I have broken up the post into sections. I might have to put each one in spoilers!

Agree. I had rated Rainbow under the presumption that he game was fairly obscure even in Japan (it only sold 6,000 copies in its first week at retail!), but I've seen Japanese fans reference the game a lot more in my recent searching, and now Sakurai himself has acknowledged it. I'm not jumping on the "oh, he's so likely" bandwagon, but the 7.5% I gave him will double.

I would give Captain Rainbow a 5% increase from my previous score (5%).
It's odd how this extremely obscure character from an extremely obscure game is now a contender for Smash.

(t) 135. Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie): 0.12% chance, 72.57% want

Wow. Dem stats. He's so high on the wanted list, even in the top 10. Yet is in the bottom 3 for likelihood. Woah. I wonder how a re-vote on this would affect his score...

The chance score will probably be lower. It should, but people were a bit sympathetic.
His want… I am hoping goes up. Looking at Banjo-Kazooie footage (I REALLY need to continue playing the game on my Xbox!), it makes me wish the buy-out did not happen.

 

[YoshiandToad]

My theory: He had 5 Mario characters planned (the Melee 5)
5 Pokemon planned (Brawl + Mewtwo)
And only 3 Zelda characters, Link, Shelda, Dorf.

Toon Link?

Sora
Chance: 0%
Not quite legendary enough, owned by TWO companies(one of which isn't a video game company), all the main games have been Playstation exclusive and Dream Drop Distance, whilst important, doesn't seem like enough to carry Sora onto Smash over a Playstations All Star roster slot. Doubtful Sora would get in over a Namco rep at this point either.

Want: 0%
I liked Sora a lot in Kingdom Hearts I and II, but then honestly the series lost me as it got more convoluted. I also don't think Sora should be in Smash Bros...as it is I'm not huge on third parties, and Pac-Man is literally the only third party newcomer I'd be okay with for this game due to his rich history of affecting the video games industry.

It feels a little too early for Sora for me. Give it a few more Smashes, and I may warm up to the idea but for now he's someone I could do without. A better Nintendo Square rep than Cloud though.

Toon Zelda and Tetra:
Chance: 35%
Planned for Brawl, easier to make than a fully unique character. However, unique seems to be the theme of this Smash, so Toon Zelda essentially being a faster Twilight Princess Zelda may go against such an idea. Not that Toon Zelda NEEDS to be a clone, but it seems unlikely than she'd be a fully unique individual.
Tetra is a very popular toon character and many people want Tetra for the new Zelda rep.

Want: 40%
I like Tetra. She was one of the best parts of Wind Waker. If Toon Zelda uses her phantom powers from Spirit Tracks she'll be really fun to play as. However, it's a big ol if and that prevents me from wanting her more. I don't really see the need for another iteration of Zelda since we already have two if you count Sheik. Having two more would probably feel slightly overkill...especially if they all share the same final Smash.

Predictions:
Balloon Fighter: 0.75%
Villager's a jerk for killing off Balloon Fighter's hopes and dreams.

Gangplank Galleon: 46%
People will hyperinflate this stage's chances due to their want of King K. Rool.

Nominations:
RTC Top Ten Member AT X 5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Sora Chances: 0%. Snake and Pac-Man, plus Disney.
Want: 0%. Black Mage or bust for Square.
TZ/ Tetra Chances: 25%. Like @ NickerBocker said, it's ripping off Sheilda. Not to mention, we were supposed to get the dreaded "Toon Sheik" instead. *Shivers*
Want: 0%. Tingle, Vaati, Ganon and of course:

Spoiler

Impa.

B. Fighter: 5.2%.
Gangplank Galleon: 26.4%.
Dedede Arena X1
Leif X3
New Version of Fourside (in other words, different from it's Melee counterpart) X1

 

[Xenigma]

Blah, I completely forgot about by far the most important piece of news to come up since the last T/TZ rating in November: the Phantom. No one has really been able to properly explain what it is exactly or why it was part of Zelda's reveal, at least given the one screenshot we have of it. However, if we assume that Toon Zelda is in the game, the Phantom suddenly makes perfect sense: the move would have been added as part of Toon Zelda's moveset since the Phantom is from a TZ game, which would have been mirrored to regular Zelda since TZ would surely be a clone, and then Sakurai wouldn't be able to talk about it until Toon Zelda's reveal or else risk spoiling her inclusion. For now it just acts as a big teaser for Toon Zelda, which is perfectly in line with how Sakurai has handled reveals thus far (see the boxing ring for Little Mac and Pyrosphere for Ridley in particular).

Given that strong evidence and the numerous other good reasons to believe this is the most likely newcomer for Zelda, I need to adjust my rating up, higher than my old rating even. I'm giving Tetra/Toon Zelda a 75% chance, with another 10% or so for other possibilities and a 15% chance of no Zelda newcomer, though I would expect that would be due to Toon Zelda being cut during development. I'm going to edit my rating post accordingly; if you've already tallied my old rating Groose, please be sure to change it.

 

[andimidna]

Toon Link?

Sora
Chance: 0%
Not quite legendary enough, owned by TWO companies(one of which isn't a video game company), all the main games have been Playstation exclusive and Dream Drop Distance, whilst important, doesn't seem like enough to carry Sora onto Smash over a Playstations All Star roster slot. Doubtful Sora would get in over a Namco rep at this point either.

Want: 0%
I liked Sora a lot in Kingdom Hearts I and II, but then honestly the series lost me as it got more convoluted. I also don't think Sora should be in Smash Bros...as it is I'm not huge on third parties, and Pac-Man is literally the only third party newcomer I'd be okay with for this game due to his rich history of affecting the video games industry.

It feels a little too early for Sora for me. Give it a few more Smashes, and I may warm up to the idea but for now he's someone I could do without. A better Nintendo Square rep than Cloud though.

Toon Zelda and Tetra:
Chance: 35%
Planned for Brawl, easier to make than a fully unique character. However, unique seems to be the theme of this Smash, so Toon Zelda essentially being a faster Twilight Princess Zelda may go against such an idea. Not that Toon Zelda NEEDS to be a clone, but it seems unlikely than she'd be a fully unique individual.
Tetra is a very popular toon character and many people want Tetra for the new Zelda rep.

Want: 40%
I like Tetra. She was one of the best parts of Wind Waker. If Toon Zelda uses her phantom powers from Spirit Tracks she'll be really fun to play as. However, it's a big ol if and that prevents me from wanting her more. I don't really see the need for another iteration of Zelda since we already have two if you count Sheik. Having two more would probably feel slightly overkill...especially if they all share the same final Smash.

Predictions:
Balloon Fighter: 0.75%
Villager's a jerk for killing off Balloon Fighter's hopes and dreams.

Gangplank Galleon: 46%
People will hyperinflate this stage's chances due to their want of King K. Rool.

Nominations:
RTC Top Ten Member AT X 5

I explained Toon Link and how he was one of the final 4 added to brawl.
Jigglypuff was returned last minute.
Toon Link and Wolf were last minute clones like the ones from Melee. Sonic was added as a newcome last minute also, but was unique, which delayed the game a bit.

Also, Spirit Tracks Zelda is basically confirmed an assist trophy. And if she's not, she's a move for Zelda, which makes no sense. So she must be an assist. I don't think Toon Zelda would use ST moves, just like Toon Link wouldn't. Difference is, the assist will actually fight and use a move or 2. ST Link just stands there on the Spirit Train Stage.

Blah, I completely forgot about by far the most important piece of news to come up since the last T/TZ rating in November: the Phantom. No one has really been able to properly explain what it is exactly or why it was part of Zelda's reveal, at least given the one screenshot we have of it. However, if we assume that Toon Zelda is in the game, the Phantom suddenly makes perfect sense: the move would have been added as part of Toon Zelda's moveset since the Phantom is from a TZ game, which would have been mirrored to regular Zelda since TZ would surely be a clone, and then Sakurai wouldn't be able to talk about it until Toon Zelda's reveal or else risk spoiling her inclusion. For now it just acts as a big teaser for Toon Zelda, which is perfectly in line with how Sakurai has handled reveals thus far (see the boxing ring for Little Mac and Pyrosphere for Ridley in particular).

Given that strong evidence and the numerous other good reasons to believe this is the most likely newcomer for Zelda, I need to adjust my rating up, higher than my old rating even. I'm giving Tetra/Toon Zelda a 75% chance, with another 10% or so for other possibilities and a 15% chance of no Zelda newcomer, though I would expect that would be due to Toon Zelda being cut during development. I'm going to edit my rating post accordingly; if you've already tallied my old rating Groose, please be sure to change it.

A different Toon Zelda being an assist trophy raises her likelihood of being a playable character?
No.
People can summon giant characters with taunts now?
No.
The phantom decreases her chances. That idea is extremely far fetched. When Toon Link cloned Link, was Link suddenly able to summon a realistic Medli?
No.

That's like saying Villager using Ballon Fighter's balloons hints at Tingle being a playable character because Tingle actually used that characters move in his game, and Villager never has, yet he's shown with them.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Is anyone else just curious to know what Toon Sheik would have looked like if she were in Brawl?

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Is anyone else just curious to know what Toon Sheik would have looked like if she were in Brawl?

Actually... I'm curious too.

 

[Smady]

Sora

0% Chance: @Brawler610 said it all. Sora is a third-party and associated more with Playstation than Nintendo. Sakurai has said he's not going to add third-parties unless there is a very good reason and I don't feel that applies to Sora. There are other third-party characters - Pac-Man, Simon Belmont, Bomberman to name a few - that have substantial fanbases and recognition that are precedent candidates long before a Kingdom Hearts rep.

There's absolutely no way they'd add Sora without any other Kingdom Hearts content, which in this case only opens a can of worm when it comes to Disney's involvement. I doubt that company would especially want all their properties on display, and as Brawler pointed out, why go to such extensive trouble only to get Sora from Disney, next to Mickey Mouse?

There's absolutely no way it's happening.

0% Want: All due respect to Kingdom Hearts fans, I'm not and I never will be one. Squaresoft was my favorite developer and the era where it began on this series is where I started to actively dislike the kinds of games they were developing in-house. I can't help but look at this entire franchise as a cynical attempt to cash-in on intellectual properties. Plus I like my old-fashioned traditional role-playing games over "action."

That bias aside, I don't think it's the right series for Smash Bros. Solid Snake is a pretty odd fit for me in Brawl, although he's a great set, his games started technically earlier on the NES, just they didn't have big success like the first Metal Gear Solid. He is about as far as I'd ever want Sakurai to go in finding humanoid third-party characters that aren't that representative of Nintendo, Sora is far out of whack.

Toon Zelda and Tetra

5% Chance: The stipulation being that we have a transformation from Tetra to Zelda, no. That is not unique, that is copying Zelda's transformation to Sheik in a tortuous way. There's no reason for the two Zeldas to have identical gimmicks. The Phantom, if we assume it is Toon Zelda's, is an obvious mechanic for her that would easily replace the down special, if she does otherwise mimic Zelda's set.

Short of why it makes no sense for the two characters from alternate centuries to use the same moveset, it makes no sense for Tetra to transform back and forth between her pirate and princess form. I've yet to see an explanation for how this makes sense.

Zelda would be outwardly a clone, otherwise Sakurai is expending time on two movesets for one newcomer, going against the philosophy he's been seeming to use this entire time for newcomers. On her own, Tetra could work, but if you start to attach other characters it's no longer worthwhile for Sakurai considering that Zelda has such a wide library of characters, only to take one alternate form of Zelda and shut out the rest.

10% Want: Wind Waker I'm just playing now and not a whole lot of it yet, but I never liked it all that much from what I've seen. I feel Toon Link is an apt representation of the game, maybe Ganondorf could use the Wind Waker boss fight to have a de-cloned moveset. When we start adding Toon Zelda, Tetra and so on, it's frankly annoying that no other Zelda game may get any new reps except for Wind Waker and the DS games.

I don't hate Tetra or Toon Zelda, but two of the same character, both taking up space that could be filled by other genuinely fascinating Zelda characters, of which there are dozens, is not good. Just one of the two I can tolerate and if either or the combination resonated in an interesting way I would see the appeal. Two characters in one as a concept is the only tempting part and we already have one.

Balloon Fighter Prediction: 0.7%
Villager didn't oust Little Mac by using his gloves, but Balloon Fighter isn't nearly as popular.

Gangplank Galleon Prediction: 35%
King K. Rool is a popular candidate here and this is the most obvious stage for the character. About half of his chance score.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5

 

[Xenigma]

A different Toon Zelda being an assist trophy raises her likelihood of being a playable character?
No.
People can summon giant characters with taunts now?
No.
The phantom decreases her chances. That idea is extremely far fetched. When Toon Link cloned Link, was Link suddenly able to summon a realistic Medli?
No.

We don't know if it's a move, assist trophy, taunt, or anything. It was deliberately shown with an otherwise unchanged Zelda, though, which begs the question of why. Normal Zelda has no attachment to Phantoms, so theoretically it shouldn't have been randomly added to her moveset. Same goes for it being a taunt: there's just no reason for it to be there. Assist trophy is plausible, but if that's true, why hasn't Sakurai said anything about it by now? Every other assist trophy has gotten a picture of the day, usually the day it was revealed, while the Phantom has been left unexplained for roughly three months. That's a bizarre oversight, one that presumably wouldn't happen without a reason. So, again, why is that Phantom there?

In my view, the simplest explanation is that it's because Toon Zelda is in the game, or at the very least has been in development. Everything else falls into place from there. The Phantom would have been added to Toon Zelda's moveset as a reference to her Spirit Tracks incarnation. From there, the decision would have been made to mirror it in normal Zelda's moveset (presumably because Sakurai liked the move), which is why it would have been shown off in that screenshot yet left unexplained for so long. Without Toon Zelda the Phantom is a bizarre anomaly; with her, it both makes sense why it is there and why it has been left unexplained for so long.

Maybe there's a better explanation why the Phantom is there. Personally, it just seems like Sakurai teasing at the inclusion of Toon Zelda, which absolutely merits strong consideration in rating her chances.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Sora:

Chance: 0%
Playstation All-Star aside he's Square Enix property... and those guys have Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy! You don't get bigger than that with RPGs!

Want: 0%
I run the Slime Support thread, 'nuff said!
Speaking of which I really need to get the OP updated on there before J-Star Victory Vs. comes out and I get even busier...



Zelda and Tetra:
The phantom is Toon styled!

Look at the colours and the low detail, it's not a realistic phantom at all! It looks just like Toon Link! No-one seems confused that he's not cel-shaded, why is it so hard for the phantom?!?!

Sorry, but the argument is so annoying... just look at the picture before randomly creating theories based on nothing, it's on the website, it's not hard.


Chance: 45%
Last minute clones aren't super likely, but Zelda only having 4 characters to Mario's 6 and Pokémon's 5 is unlikely. Toon Zelda and Tetra will be quick to implement and is highly popular. Moreover Zelda's play style could be employed offensively or defensively (and would be better if the character was focused towards one or the other) so this would allow tweaking each to their own specialization, helping both Zeldas jump up the tiers. It'd almost (well maybe not almost, but it'd have it's advantages) be easier to have two Zeldas for balancing purposes, and with this game spending a lot longer on balancing the extra animation work will be a drop in the ocean. It's still not likely, as character slots are more precious, but her inclusion would make a lot of sense and not be very difficult to do (especially compared to making characters like Rosaluma and Little Mac).

Want: 100%
I like Zelda in smash, but she sucks, I think Toon Zelda could allow both Zeldas to be better, and more fun!



Balloon Fighter: 0.2%
0s abound.

Gangplank Galleon: 16%
Tropical Freeze says hi!


Slime*5

 

[andimidna]

We don't know if it's a move, assist trophy, taunt, or anything. It was deliberately shown with an otherwise unchanged Zelda, though, which begs the question of why. Normal Zelda has no attachment to Phantoms, so theoretically it shouldn't have been randomly added to her moveset. Same goes for it being a taunt: there's just no reason for it to be there. Assist trophy is plausible, but if that's true, why hasn't Sakurai said anything about it by now? Every other assist trophy has gotten a picture of the day, usually the day it was revealed, while the Phantom has been left unexplained for roughly three months. That's a bizarre oversight, one that presumably wouldn't happen without a reason. So, again, why is that Phantom there?

In my view, the simplest explanation is that it's because Toon Zelda is in the game, or at the very least has been in development. Everything else falls into place from there. The Phantom would have been added to Toon Zelda's moveset as a reference to her Spirit Tracks incarnation. From there, the decision would have been made to mirror it in normal Zelda's moveset (presumably because Sakurai liked the move), which is why it would have been shown off in that screenshot yet left unexplained for so long. Without Toon Zelda the Phantom is a bizarre anomaly; with her, it both makes sense why it is there and why it has been left unexplained for so long.

Maybe there's a better explanation why the Phantom is there. Personally, it just seems like Sakurai teasing at the inclusion of Toon Zelda, which absolutely merits strong consideration in rating her chances.

Xerneas.
Xerneas completely destroys your logic.
It is commonly accepted that Xerneas is a pokeball, yet has it been stated?
Nope. But it's a Pokemon that for no other reason would be standing next to Pikachu in Smash Bros.
Does this hint at Pichu being a playable character able to stand next to Yveltal? No!
Just like, the obvious assist trophy, represents Toon Zelda perfectly.
Assists have only received one picture. Whereas moves have been seen either multiple times or just once, and some haven't been shown at all.
The main reason it's not a move is that Sheik isn't going anywhere! And neither is Nayru's Love! We've seen her without the phantom, so we know its not always there. There is no place you can shove the Phantom onto Zelda's moveset.
Do you realize how many unanswered questions we have? It's not even just the phantom and Xerneas. Peach's Rainbow, Find Mii Cage, Wii Fit Trainer Light Ball, and what all of the assists will do plus MANY more. Something being confusing means nothing in a sea of unanswered questions.
Phantom Zelda IS ST Zelda, Her spirit is controlling the Phantom.
It's an assist, like Skull Kid.
Plus, the majority of Twilight Princess Zelda's moves come from Ocarina if Time. All of her specials are OoT Link's moves. And her transformation to Sheik. If there was a special that was able to be removed and still make sense, this theory would be plausible, but still slightly ridiculous. It's not like ST Link hinted at Toon Link, pretty much just hinted at his removal, but they are different people so its OK.
If Toon Zelda were added, shed be a clone of Brawl Zelda. Zelda won't change for her, that makes no sense if he wants unique characters. Phantom Zelda could have made Toon Zelda unique, but that concept is deconfirmed. And since ST Link didn't deconfirm WW Link, she isn't yet deconfirmed, however, the stage hazard swaps out for Alfonzo. And Assist can appear randomly at any time when activated, doesn't matter who activated it.
There is absolutely nothing going against the idea that its an assist trophy.
And there's a lot going against every other option.
A character doesn't preform a move. And use the same thing as a taunt with no affect later.
With Link, Zelda, Sheik, WW Link, ST Link Stage Hazard, and ST Zelda assist. WW Zelda and Tetra are completely unnecessary.

With the limited amount of newcomers this time around, and more focus on making veterans less clone-y and more balanced, the concept of Toon Zelda with anything has no shot. Tetra alone could be implemented but I can't imagine anything that would catch my attention being done with her, I can't imagine wanting to play as Tetra, that's why my want is so low. Stereotypical pirate moves for Toon Shei... I mean Tetra, has little to no appeal IMO.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sora Chance: 0.25%
Sora Want: 100% Been a big fan of this series, and I would totally love to see him!
Toon Zelda/Tetra Chance: 15% Like I every other semi-clone, this has a decent chance of happening if Sakurai ever runs out of time.
Toon Zelda/Tetra Want: 10% Nah.
Nominations:
Alph Brittany Charlie x5

 

[OctiVick]

Sora Chance - 0%
It would be to much of a hassle especially due to needing both SE and Disney to sigh off on using the character.
Sora Want - 50%
I like the series and I like to play as him in SSF2 but I don't really want him here.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Chance - 25%
I subtracted 5% for solo Toon Zelda and 25% for solo Tetra and the rest was for another Zelda rep and/or no new Zelda rep. It is possible that they would want to tack T.Zelda to Tetra as a why to get more characters in the game because a newcomer with extra clone tacked on would be much less development time. I didn't give the both of them too high of a score because there is a chance either of them could be separate or there could just be entirely different (or no) new Zelda rep.
Toon Zelda/Tetra Want - 75%
100% for Tetra and 50% for T.Zelda averages out to a good 75%. I'm neutral about T.Zelda but, after thinking about it, I would be a little bit disappointed due to Tetra being pulled down by another Zelda when she has enough potential and personality to be her own character. At the end if Tetra dose have T.Zelda with her I wouldn't mind, I would just rather have her as her own character.

Predictions
Balloon Fighter - 10% - It doesn't help that Villager stole his gimmick.
Gangplank Galleon - 20% - Ok chance but it's more possible to have a DKR stage instead

Nominations
Captain Rainbow with Nick X5

 

[Rockaphin]

Sora:
Chance: 0%
Want: 1%

Toon Zelda & Tetra:
Chance: 55%
Want: 0%

Predictions:
Balloon Fighter: 1%
Gangplank Galleon: 29%

Nominations:
Paper Mario Stage x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

SORA

Chance: 0% - Licensing nightmare for a non-legendary thrid party.

Want: 95% - I have to be honest with you guys. Simply put, if Sora had any real chance at showing up in this game, he'd be tied with Isaac for my most wanted character after Megaman. Kingdom Hearts is AMAZING!!!! I even remember when I used to "wear" a Sora avatar on these boards back in the day.

TOON ZELDA WITH TETRA

Chance: 25% - It is a decent possibility.

Want: 75% - A nice complement to Toon Link.

Balloon Fighter Prediction: 2% - Many think the Villager hurts his chances.

Gankplank Galleon Prediction: 3% - People may expect a new and exotic stage from Tropical Freeze instead.

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Sora: Double 0s
TZelda/Tetra: 20%
Want: 50%
BF: 0.65%
Gangplank: 16.43

LORD HELIX x 5

 

[loganhogan]

Sora
chance 1%
want 0%

Toon ZELD-ugh!
chance 65% It's one of those characters that I see happening but I dont' want. She was planned last time so that's something and her competition is a bunch of one-shots and Impa/Tingle.
want 0%

x3 Dr. Lobe
x2 Sheriff

 

[Sid-cada]

Sora

Chance - 0% - No way this character is getting in. There's simply too much legal red tape due to Disney and Square for him to be even up for consideration.

Want - 20% - Waste of a third party slot in my eyes.


Zelda and Tetra

Chance - 27% - While my option on them has not changed, I kinda have to shave a few points here and there for Zelda rerates. My math kinda exaggerated, and I have to steel a few points here and there to give some to Tetra solo. This one would have to suffer the most, obviously.

Want - 60% - Yep, same. Want tetra, but rather her be free.


Predictions

Balloon Fighter - 1.23% - Villager murdered him.

Gangplank Galleon - 68.5% - Mostly ambiance, with some optimism due to being K. Rool's ideal stage.


Nomiantions
Halcandra X5

 

[Gunla]

Sora- There's one word I can easily use to describe his chances.
-LIGHTNING.
00.01%
Want: 00.00%- I want Kidd Zeal. Or Lightning.

Zelda & Tetra-Double
Pros
+Similar to my Tetra Solo rating with Toon Zelda. Easy clone add on.
Cons
-More work may make Tetra solo more reasonable.
Overall Rating is 20%.
Want: 50%- Because it still has Tetra but a clone add on.

Predictions:
Balloonz- Predicting 2%.
Gangplank Galleon- 40%- Depends on if K Rool is playable.

Nominations:
@ Groose I was considering actually starting to make nominations for Jack Frost from Shin Megami Tensei. Jack being the icon of SMT is the top choice for a candidate. The series has gotten more prevalent on Nintendo systems (Persona has gone to PS systems) with titles such as Strange Journey, a remake of Soul Hackers, the Devil Child Games, Shin Megami Tensei IV, and a few other titles. The recent SMT X FE crossover has gotten my thinking as well.
If you have no qualms with it, then Jack Frost X5 it is!

 

[Glaciacott]

Sora
Chance - 0%
No need to elaborate too much

Want - 0%
Stay out of Smash.

Zelda/Tetra
Chance - 45%
A considerably large dive from what I gave her before. I still think she's fairly likely given how she's pretty recent and even appears next to regular Zelda in streetpass puzzles and in eSop banners. Then there's the fact that Zelda getting another rep is not really that much out of the question given how huge a series it is and how much of an event the whole 25th anniversary was compared to even Mario's and DK's (and Kirby's). Zelda is important, and out of all the possibilities, Toon Zelda is interestingly the most likely.
Tetra makes the score drop a bit because she's not as certain

Want - 90%
I've come to appreciate diversity in the roster a lot more than before, so there's a drop of 10% from my previous 90% want, but nevertheless, I would really welcome this inclusion and even enjoy the idea of a playable tetra. Yes, this score hinges on Tetra being playable.

Predictions
Balloon Fighter - 1.4%
Disconfirmed in my book

Gangplank Galleon - 31%
Not necessarily the only possible stage for K. Rool,, and that's even assuming K. Rool's inclusion.

Nominations
Oh boy, I got so many today. I guess let's get this guy finally done with
x15 Sheriff

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Sora ni, soubieru, kurogane no shiro!: 0.2%
Even if Square Enix proposed his inclusion, couldn't Disney veto him/ask for money if he gets put in? I'm not sure.

Want: 0%
I remember playing Chain of Memories for the GBA and hating it immensely.

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 55.5%
The most obvious choice for a Zelda newcomer except maybe for Tingle.

Want: 75%
Sure.

Balloon Fighter prediction: 0.68%
Gangplank Galleon prediction: 25.6%

Nominate:
Dr. Eggman x5

 

[andimidna]

Can somebody please tell me why they're likely?...
I just don't understand for some reason...

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm surprised the ratings are alot higher for Toon Zelda/Tetra than most semi-clones being voted here. I'm starting to think the ratings for semi-clones are unfair.

 

[andimidna]

I'm surprised the ratings are alot higher for Toon Zelda/Tetra than most semi-clones being voted here.

Yea, in most cases it seems that if a character is most likely to end up a semi clone, it's, for the most part, disregarded as a likely possibilty.
That's the whole reason Robin got popular here, right?
Yet T.Zetra has votes that suggest she is more likely to be added than not.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Yea, in most cases it seems that if a character is most likely to end up a semi clone, it's, for the most part, disregarded as a likely possibilty.
That's the whole reason Robin got popular here, right?
Yet T.Zetra has votes that suggest she is more likely to be added than not.

I think the main reason Toon Zelda is considered a front runner is because she was part of the forbidden seven for brawl. The fact that she's been seriously considered before is a very good reason to believe she has a chance. Also there technically hasn't been any hard line proof that this instalment won't include any clones or so called "semi clones".

 

[andimidna]

Yet I barely see people here say Dixie is more likely than K Rool
I don't see Plusle and Minun requests
Has anybody EVER said Dr. Mario was the frontrunner for Mario?
Toon Sheik doesn't even exist...
I'm just not seeing it...

 

[Glaciacott]

Yet I barely see people here say Dixie is more likely than K Rool
I don't see Plusle and Minun requests
Has anybody EVER said Dr. Mario was the frontrunner for Mario?
Toon Sheik doesn't even exist...
I'm just not seeing it...

K. Rool is more popular than Dixie so people here rate him higher. Other places seem to expect Dixie more from what I gather.
Plusle and MInun requests don't happen because they're stupid choices and the only pokemon people want is Mewtwo
Dr. Mario is not considered because 1) There were more popular Mario characters considered and 2) Rosalina killed the chances of more Mario characters.

Toon Zelda is still viable given Zelda getting a new rep would not be surprising (although not necessarily a given) and reveals have supported her inclusion (Toon Link coming back) more than they have made it unlikely. Also, I'd argue Impa would be more likely to play exactly like Sheik than Toon Zelda is likely to play like Zelda, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sora: 0.5%
Want: 0% I hate Disney. I hate (most) third parties. Therefore, I hate Sora.

Toon Zelda and Tetra: 20% I think we have an even chance to get Toon Zelda, Toon Zelda/Tetra, and Toon Zelda/Sheik.
Want: 30% I prefer Toon Zelda on her own, or with Toon Sheik

Balloon Fighter: 0.98%
Gangplank Galleon: 27.89%

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik