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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Spears In Smash Bros.

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 31, 2013
Messages
263
Chocolate Reyn: 0.5%
Shulk, baby.

Want: 0%
Still have yet to play Xenoblade.

Plasmawrath prediction: 0.43%

Nominate(Jeez, can't remember the last time I won extra noms):
Kunio-Kun/Alex x2
Tiki x2
No Namco character x1
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
1,732
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DC
3DS FC
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Reyn

Unfortunately for Reyn, I think only Shulk has a good chance. If any other Xenoblade character were to get in, I'd think that it would be Fiora (she has more uniqueness, is female, and is more important to the story).

Reyn chances: 0.1%

Reyn want: 30%
I think it should be Shulk or Fiora. And if it weren't one of them, I'd want it to be Dunbar or Riki. Really, I'd only prefer Reyn over Sharla.

Dixie re-rate

As I've thought about it more, I think a 4th DK rep is more likely, and also that K Rool is not as dominating over Dixie as I thought before (this is partly because of Rosalina). So a slight bump to Dixie relative to last time, and a slight decline for K Rool will also be in order if we get to him again. This is also influenced by the fact that there's no sign of K Rool being in Tropical Freeze. But who knows, maybe Nintendo is saving the big reveal (K Rool coming back along with David Wise would be cool).

Dixie chances: 52%

Dixie want: 70%
Just the same as before. I still want K Rool more.

Plasm Wraith prediction: 0.5%
Lyn prediction: 8%
I'm guessing her support will have dropped.

Nominations:
Zelda newcomer x5
 

SmashShadow

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 9, 2012
Messages
2,660
3DS FC
0104-0598-9588
Reyn: 1%
Want: 0% Have not played the series and have never even heard of the character.

Dixie Kong: 70% That she is in Tropical Freeze rose her chances to a front runner for Smash. Coupled with the fact that DK is underrepped and could potentially get 2 reps makes her extremely likely.
Want: 80% My first DKC game was DKC3 so naturally I'd be happy.

5x Kiddy kong
 

Hippopotasauce

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,659
NNID
Hippopotasauce
Precipitation Likelihood: 0.25%
Want: 25%

Dixie Likelihood: 40%
Want: 60%

Plasm Wraith: 0.15%
Lyn: 10.35%

Rhythm Heaven stage x5
 
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Capybara Gaming

Just Vibing
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Messages
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Kamurocho
Reyn:

Chance - 0%; Shulk gets in, Happy Day, but that's all Xenoblade would get as far as characters.
Want: 0% - I only want Shulk from this franchise.

Dixie Kong:
Chance - 80% Being a character cut from Brawl DOES NOT hurt her chances, and besides K. Rool, is the most popular pick for a DK Newcomer, at least from what I have seen.
Want: !00% - I love Dixie. She's earned it and so has K Rool.

Plasm Wraith: 0.9 - For some reason, a few people want it.... But Olimar is all Pikmin will get. MAYBE Louie or Alph IF it's lucky.
Lyn: 10% even. While I want Lyn, maybe dropped from earlier rate.

Sora x3
Alexandra Roivas x2
 

PK_Wonder

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
1,179
Reyn 1.5%

Dixie Kong - 75%

predict Plasm Wraith 0.5%
predict Lyn 7%

Alexandra Roivas x5
 

Cheezey Bites

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Reyn:

Chance: 0%
Shulk

Want: 0%
Why?


Dixie Kong:

Chance: 40%
I don't see what she could really bring... K.Rool is also more popular, and as much as the series deserves it, I just don't see two DK newcomers as likely.

Want: 45%
I would be happy with her inclusion so long as it doesn't stop K.Rool, but it wouldn't hype me, and if it came with him not being in I'd just be annoyed that she got in over him.


Plasm Wraith: 0.2%
We all know Pikmin is about the Pikmin... maybe an AT...

Lyn: 2.2%
Being from the first western released FE game makes people over-estimate her importance.



Black Mage*5
(I feel like a traitor for doing this)
 

Toxicroaker

Smash Lord
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Everywhere
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First let's start off with the special day 150 gift. What I am doing is taking every single result into a single roster. How I do that it I go to random.org and I type in 1 to 10000. Let's take Chrom for example. The result was 5213 so I put a point right before the last two numbers and there you have it 52.13%. since that was lower than his 44.56% he makes it onto the roster. If he got 15.66% (1566) he wouldn't have made it on. It is pretty small, but it is cool to see how (in)accurate we are rating them anyways. Without further adieu, here is the image

It may be small, but it sure was fun to make. Note the seven Pokemon characters, both Aeron and Shulk, and Ganon.

Now for the rating.
Reyn: 0.2% Shulk or bust.
Want: 25% Dat weapon.

Dixie Kong: 15% Taking into account my 58% the first time and 30% the second time, I have to say my opinion has changed.
Want: 0%

Plasm Wraith: 0.06%

Lyn: 12%

x5 Cookie Country
 

SethTheMage

Smash Ace
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686
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Reyn:

Chance: 0.5% - I never played Xenoblade Chronicles, so I didn't even know who this was until I checked the comments. If anyone will get in from Xenoblade Chronicles, it will probably be Shulk.

Want: 0% - Might be an awesome character, but I've never played the game.


Dixie Kong:

Chance: 70% - Was planned for Brawl (which means that Sakurai has already thought about making her playable), decently popular (though not as much as K. Rool), and important to the DK franchise.

Want: 100% - My most wanted Smash character since Diddy was announced for Brawl, so this is a no-brainer for me. While I won't go so far as to say her inclusion will make-or-break the game for me, I will be pretty bummed if she doesn't make it. I was really disappointed when I found out she was cut from Brawl.
 
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FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
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Reyn:
Likelihood: 0%
If I understand correctly, Reyn is Shulk's sidekick from Xenoblade. Shulk himself is no guarentee, so Reyn can be dismissed rather easily.

Want: 0%
Xenoblade Chronicles is a good game but it getting two characters is unfair and overkill.

Dixie Kong: We rated her just a few weeks ago, right?
Likelihood: 60%
I think she's actually a lot more likely than people like to give her credit for. She can get implemented as an easy semi-clone for Diddy, while having a few of her own tricks. Her being planned for Brawl also helps her, as does her reappearance in Tropical Freeze.

Want: 100%
I recently played DKC2: Diddy Kong's Quest. Needless to say, it's a great game. It also warmed me up a lot to Dixie.

FrostPlasm Wraith: 0.1%
A 2nd Pikmin character is not going to be a boss, I'm pretty sure about that.

Lyn: 8%
I expect a drop from her previous rate.
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Reyn and Dixie Kong have been added to the Directory.
If you have rated Dixie Kong, please make sure to see what you said on her day!

Oh hey, more Xenoblade quotes! (some were definitely altered for the game)

Chance: Good thing I'm here. No? Anyone? (1%)
Let's be honest here, Reyn is definitely not going to make it into Smash. I mean, we are still doubting if Shulk is going to make it into Smash, but why Reyn? I think that two things can work in his favor however. The first of which could be popularity; he is one of the more popular characters from Xenoblade and he has been in your party since the very beginning. The second of which is that if Shulk makes it in, he is a frontrunner for the second character. With that being said, he would still have to compete with other Xenoblade characters, namely Fiora, if he wants that nonexistent second slot. Still, I'll give him some benefit of the doubt as someone might pull for him to be more than a sticker or trophy. As a character slot? That's a longshot.
Want: NOW IT'S REYN TIME! (100%)
Reyn is my favorite character from Xenoblade. The qualities that make him a good character are his comedic characteristics (I tend to like comedic characters) and I like how he is like a protective brother to Shulk. He makes for a fun character in the game and he definitely has some of the best quotes (REYN TIME). In fact, he might be one of those showboaters in Smash.
I will be honest, I support him in the comfort that it will never happen. If he joined the fray, I think I might be a bit disappointed… but I can't say no to Reyn. He's freaking awesome!
However, I fully support him as an Assist Trophy. He would come out screaming "NOW IT'S REYN TIME!" when he gets summoned and take damage for you.

Dixie Kong
Chance: I CAN FEEL THE CHANCES!
(85%)

I made a tier list of franchises that could get slots. In that list, I put Donkey Kong and Kirby near the top of the tier list in the B+ tier.
The reason why Donkey Kong is so high up is because the series is long lasting, Nintendo is putting emphasis on it, and the series has two amazing characters to choose from in Dixie Kong and King K. Rool. I expect this series to get 3-4 characters.
Back to Dixie Kong, I say that she and King K. Rool are on equal terms. While King K. Rool is most likely not in Tropical Freeze, he still has worldwide demand. Dixie Kong's demand is not quite as strong, but she is still wanted by the fanbase and Sakurai planned for her to be in Brawl.
Since Dixie Kong is in Tropical Freeze, it could be possible that she could get added in over King K. Rool. However, seeing as how much of an impact the series has had over the years, the series having 4 slots is definitely not out of question. For now though, Dixie Kong and King K. Rool are competing for the 3rd slot and if one gets in, the other might not.
Want: Not bad. Not bad at all. (65%)
As I've mentioned on the underrated characters day, I said that her ratings should be the same as King K. Rool's. I felt as though bias for him as dropped her scores.
While I prefer King K. Rool, I wouldn't mind it if Dixie Kong got in. She doesn't scream as someone who is incredibly unique to me like King K. Rool, but she would still be a good option that I wouldn't mind. She definitely earned her spot on the roster.

We're doing 2 predictions now? That's a good idea!
Plasm Wraith Prediction: Man, what a bunch of jokers! (.15%)
This is the first Pikmin character that we are rating… so we are rating this before Louie and Alph? No one has brought them to the top?! When I'm done with Zael, I'm bringing Louie to the top of the nominations list! This is absurd!

Lyn Prediction: Her chances are weak, but don't drop your guards! (9.01%)
Let's be honest here, her time is up. People will lower their scores for Roy, Chrom, and Robin.

You probably don't have time for this small fry!
Nominations: Zael 5x
 
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Starcutter

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Reyn 0% in both

Dixie 75%
Want 85% DKC2 was my favorite game of all time

Plasm wraith 3.4% I know I'm rating him highish, but mostly nobody else is, so...

Lyn 6.4%

Noms:
Dark Matter x3
Stork x2
 
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FalKoopa

Rainbow Waifu
BRoomer
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I fixed the "Top 10 of Want" to include Banjo-Kazooie.

If Dixie's chance rating changes too much, then I'll have to edit the Chance list too.
 

RankoChan

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jan 2, 2014
Messages
162
I haven't had the time to play Xenoblade Chronicles, so I'll pass on rating Reyn.

Dixie -
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%
Dixie is the only other DKC character besides DK and Diddy to star in her own game and aside from DK64/DKCR she's been a major character in the series. She has also been playable in numerous Mario spinoff titles. DKC2 was one of my favorite titles growing up and I would love to see her in!
 

Xenigma

Smash Lord
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Reyn - 0%
If Xenoblade Chronicles gets a rep it will 100% be Shulk, and there's basically no chance the game gets a second rep, so 0% for Reyn it is.
Want - 0% - Two reps for Xenoblade is just silly at this point.

Dixie Kong - 55%
Copying my rating from last time since I don't think anything has changed. Heck, might not even change after Thursday unless we don't get a Diddy Kong reveal. Basic reasoning: DK is virtually guaranteed to get a third rep thanks to the wild success of DKCR, Dixie and K. Rool are the two clear frontrunners for that spot, and Dixie holds slight advantage thanks to Tropical Freeze while all of K. Rool's recent appearances have been side games like Donkey Konga. I think it's basically a coin flip between the two characters, though I'm giving a small edge to Dixie to show her relative strength pre-SSB4.
Want - 75% - Both her and K. Rool are deserving of inclusion and have clear appeal. Would be very happy to see either included.

Plasm Wraith Prediction - 1.1%
Given its obscurity and expected general opinion on a second Pikmin character, I can't imagine it does well.

Lyn - 8.5%
Difficult to call. I'm expecting she takes a hit, but I have no idea how much of one given she did much better than I would have expected the first time.

Nominations
Tetra x5
 

Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 29, 2007
Messages
717
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Tennessee
REYN

Chance: 0.1% - No.

Want: 0% - Shulk only.

DIXIE KONG

Chance: 75% - It looks likely to me.

Want: 75% - I'd welcome her aboard.

Plasm Wraith Prediction: .1% - I'll have to do some research on that one but so far it looks like a no.

Lyn Prediction: 5% - Eh, Chrom or Lucina have the lead for FE newcomer.

Nominations:
Chef Kawasaki x5
 

BluePikmin11

Akko is my dear daughter!
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Reyn Chance: 0.10%
Reyn Want: 5% I prefer Riki or Melia.
Dixie Kong Chance: 85% I think her chances have soared thanks to Tropical Freeze. I no longer think she would be a semi-clone either. Her hair moves are actually different enough that her specials and normal attacks would be different from Diddy's.
Dixie Want: 100% I prefer her more than K. Rool.
Plasma Wraith Prediction: 1.03%
Lyn Prediction: 2.48% Her chances are really overrated, hopefully her chances go down this time.
Nominations: x5 Alph Brittany Charlie Trio
 
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NickerBocker

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MAKE IT REYN

Xenoblade is only going to get one rep, and it certainly won't be Reyn.
Shulk. Shulk all day.

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Dixie Kong

The way I see it, is we are getting Dixie or K Rool, with a small chance of getting both. They are obviously in direct competition. Tropical Freeze definitely boosts her chances, but K Rool has been in more mainstream games, is more unique, and IMO is the better choice. Provided we get K Rool first, i would absolutely want Dixie in.

Chance: 60%
Want: 75%

Plasm Warith: 0.04%
Lyn: 5.34%

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x5
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Reyn
Chance: 0% - I believe that Xenoblade does in fact have a minuscule chance of getting a second playable character. But even then it won't likely be Reyn.
Want: 9% - I don't know anything about him, but he seems cool.

Dixie
Chance: 60% - I honestly believe that she actually has a better chance then King K. Rool, who doesn't seem to be getting any major roles lately.
Want: 54% - I'm mostly neutral.

Plasm Wraith prediction: 0.1%

Nominations: Improved Stage builder x5
 
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YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
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Messages
7,123
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Still up Peach's dress.
Reyn:
Chance: 0%
I just really can't see Xenoblade getting two reps in one go. Shulk's fairly likely but Reyn too? Come on.

Want: 0%
There are just many many more deserving characters than Reyn. Assist Trophy maybe?

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 85%
WHOA! I almost forgot it was possible to rate characters high in chance. I truly believe we're likely to get at least one Donkey Kong character this time round, and although King K. Rool is the favourite amongst Smash fans, I can't see him getting in before Dixie honestly. Hell, aside from Mewtwo and Little Mac, Dixie's the only one I'm fairly confident we'll get.

Yes, even over K. Rool.

Actually especially over K. Rool. I think he's pretty overrated in likelihood honestly.

Want: 100%
Do I want a strong female protagonist who starred in TWO of the DKC games and now Tropical Freeze? Hell yes. Dixie is one of those characters that sticks with you, and judging by the backlash DK64 got for including TINY over her, I can see I'm not alone in thinking Dixie's actually something pretty special.

Alongside Samus, Dixie was one of the first Nintendo ladies to actively save the day and not just get kidnapped...in fact ironically Dixie Kong, the only female main character in DK at the time, was the only one NOT to get kidnapped! She has to save her BOYFRIEND and the god damn HERO(twice in his case!) from King K. Rool, and she eventually overcame the tricky Kremling king not once, but twice. Once whilst babysitting. Girl can multitask alright.

Dixie Kong is, at this point, the most likely of my wanted characters to get in and so I'm hoping she gets in purely so I have one newcomer I actually care about and can look forward to...there's very little going against her at this point; she's popular, been around for a while, Nintendo still care about her, she's a strong female character(and let's be honest we are getting more females this time round) and god damn she starred in TWO of the most successful DK games ever.

The only thing I ever see going against Dixie are K. Rool superfans who don't believe DK franchise could have two characters added this time round. That's not ALL K. Rool supporters, but I've seen enough on this site that my eyes practically roll out of my head every time I see anti Dixie talk.

Plasm Wraith: 0.2%
I've seen maybe two people actively care about this character on Smashboards. Not expecting much. More boss or AT material honestly.

Nominations: 5 X Playable Bosses...aka Plasm Wraith's best hope.
 
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MasterOfKnees

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Dixie:

Chance: 40% - There's going to be a DK rep for sure. The other 60% go to K. Rool. Kind of depends if Sakurai wants to prioritize a DK newcomer or give the franchise a last minute semi-clone, I don't believe Dixie would take priority over any unique newcomer.

Want: 15% - I suck at Donkey Kong, I suck at and hate playing as Diddy Kong, so I wouldn't want another monkey.

Nominations:
5x Takamaru
 

Daniee

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jan 3, 2008
Messages
46
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Michigan
Reyn
Chance: 1% -- Only Shulk will be included from Xenoblade, if anyone.
Want: 0% -- I haven't played Xenoblade, so I honestly know jack squat about him except that he's some kind of meme, lol.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 80% -- IMO, she's the most likely newcomer, and not because of Tropical Freeze. The main reason is that for every Smash sequel, Sakurai has gone back and given another look at characters he wanted to include in the last game but couldn't, even ones that never made it past the planning stages, like Snake and Villager. Whether it was paired with Diddy Kong or as her own character, Dixie was very close to being a playable character in Brawl. I don't think this makes her a shoo-in, but I have no doubt that Sakurai took a second look at her when deciding the roster for these games, and that's more than you can say for most characters. She's also been a main character in a few games has her own little gimmick that no other character in Smash has.
Want: 90% -- Love the DKC series and I'm super hyped for Tropical Freeze, so I'm feeling pretty good about her right now, haha.
 

Louie G.

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Ugg, I miss one day and Dixie beats out K. Rool.
No matter, I am here again.

REYN:

Chance: 0%
Why would the main character's partner get in before the main character? And why would Xenoblade get two characters?

Want: 0%
No. Only Shulk.

DIXIE KONG:
Chance: 65%
Pretty low for a seemingly likely character, huh? Well I suppose I should explain. Dixie Kong is absolute clone potential. There is no way that I see Dixie Kong getting in as a completely unique character. Dixie Kong, no matter what, would play similarly to Diddy. That being said, in a game where uniqueness prevails, why would another clone who brings no gameplay elements to the table be included? It doesn't make much sense to me. Look at the newcomers: Not one is remotely similar to anyone that we have in Smash so far. It may be too early to tell, but I just don't see anymore clones or similar characters being added. Which explains my somewhat low rating for Dixie. There are better options as well. There's King K. Rool or course! With his zany moveset potential and importance to the DK franchise, paired up with his extremely large popularity, it would be very disappointing to see a Diddy clone get in instead. That may just be me, but I feel like Sakurai is trying to drift away from clones and add unique characters instead. Dixie, in that case, is a step in the wrong direction.

Want: 90%
That being said there isn't really a clone that I want more than Dixie Kong. Except for Black Shadow. Wait, I take it back< Dixie's my second favorite.

Plasm Wraith Prediction: 2.5%
Because of Headcrab Jackalope's outlier rating.

Lyn For the Win: 7.75%
Thinking positive.

Noms: KING K. ROOL x5
 
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Gunla

wow, gaming!
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I'm on my mobile phone, so no can do on updating SWF RE.
REYN TIME? NO.

Pros
-...not this again. There's not much to say when the protagonist isn't playable.
Cons
-Dunban. Normal Fiora. Aigis-esque Fiora. Any other playable character, even beating his AT chances.
-Shulk or Busy. Sorry, this is the absolute truth. And I don't expect more than one character for Xenoblade.
Overall?
Shulk or Bust. Like I said, it's a truth we can hold to. We're not getting two brand new reps from a franchise that would be new to Smash itself, and isn't as old as Fire Emblem, persay.
OVERALL RATING: .3%
Want-Shulk or Bust. 00.00%

Dixie Kong:
Gonna try something weird...
The Facts that we need to know:
-Okay, at this point, it's pretty obvious DK is getting a new playable character. This I see as a very, very high chance in any regard. But who are our competitors?

K Rool- A croc with a bloodshot eye who stands as a villain and not a monkey. Though he's not been as important in DK lore as of recent, he is the most unique of the three.
Cranky- The original, an old coot who stands as a goofy choice, but a possible one. The least likely of the three.
Dixie- The possible clone, though the most prominent of all the choices. She's the least unique.

-Now, these aren't exactly at a 33,33,33%. There's some edge.
It's easy to argue from a standpoint of uniqueness that K Rool wins.
In sales and popularity? Dixie or K Rool.
In easy to make? Dixie. She shares a similar frame to Diddy. This is the biggest one.

Dixie has gotten the most appearances, while K Rool is behind. Dixie is easier to make, which Sakurai has and will done to include more characters.

OVERALL RATING: 70%.

WANT: JUST TAKE AN 100.00%!

Plasm-Whaaaa?
1.05% prediction because of that one guy.
Lyn
2.04% prediction because of Chrom and Lucina. And then Roy's our boy.

Nominating Ridley X5.
 

ShinRPGamer

Smash Rookie
Joined
Oct 11, 2013
Messages
7
Reyn
Chance 0%: Much as I love Xenoblade there is zero chance we get more than one playable character
Want: 0% See above but I will happily accept him as a trophy or even a assist trophy.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 50% toss up between her and Krool
Want: 50% indifferent.
 

Headcrab Jackalope

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Reyn

Abstain


Dixie Kong

Chance: 60%- She's probably the most likely DK newcomer.

Want: 20%- Would prefer K. Rool or Cranky over her.


Predictions

Lyn: 6.6%- Chrom, Lucina, and Robin exist.


Plasm Wraith: 2.4%- A lot of people don't want a new Pikmin character.

Nominations
Well, time to bring someone else to the top....

Louie(Pikmin) x5



Also, thanks @ Louie G. Louie G. and @ Gunla Gunla for rating higher just because of me. :awesome:
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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IS IT TIME?: 0.4%
Want: 0%
Dixie: 65%
Want: 35%
Plasma Writh: 0.45%
Lyn: 8.45%
Now I get something new to nominate...
Jokes aside here, I do have a serious character I'm surprised we haven't rated.

Goku x 5

No, not that Goku, but Goku from the NES game YuYuKi. A great support thread made by @ Venus of the Desert Bloom Venus of the Desert Bloom can be found here.
 

McDuckletts

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Waluigi is back! I bet you all missed me! Who are we rating today?
REYN? Oh, I have something to say about Reyn...
First off, he is A DIRTY PHRASE STEALER. I mean, Reyn time?! SERIOUSLY?!?! That sounds so stupid! Everyone knows "WALUIGI TIME" is OBVIOUSLY superior! Second, his name is stupid! Why is his name Reyn if he isn't even made of rain?!...WHAAT? MY NAME IS STUPID TOO?! WALUIGI WILL MAKE YOU EAT THOSE WORDS!!! AT LEAST WALUIGI'S NAME MAKES SENSE!!! *ahem* AND LASTLY, Reyn isn't even the main character of his game, unlike Waluigi!...Whaat do you mean I'm not either?! Obviously you've been playing the wrong Mario Party! Overall, Waluigi gives Reyn a 0 in both categories. Reyn is an incredibly dumb character who DOESN'T DESERVE TO GET IN BEFORE THE GREAT WALUIGI!
SCREW REYN TIME! WALUIGI TIME, ALL THE TIMES! WAAAAAAAAA! Waluigi, OUT!








...Is he gone? OK, now on to the REAL rating.

Reyn
Chances: 0.1%
Waluigi does make one good point in his argument. Reyn isn't even the main character of the game he's from, and a side character getting in before the main character has and never will happen. If Shulk is in, however, and Sakurai decides Xenoblade deserves more than one character for whatever reason, then Reyn might have a chance maybe. Even then, this situation is very unlikely.
Want: 1%
mite b cool

Dixie Kong (oh god so many DK characters lately)
Chance: 85%
We most likely will get a new DK character for Smash. With that said, Dixie is without a doubt one of the front-runners for not only DK characters, but newcomers in general...or at least that's how I'm interpreting it. She's not only recent and has respectable demand, but she was also considered for Brawl. Some of you might consider that last point null, but honestly I think it really helps her. It may not be apparent, but Sakurai does like to revisit old ideas. Bowser, Peach and Mewtwo were all planned for Smash 64, but didn't make it due to time and console restrictions. Guess which characters made it into Melee? Dixie does suffer from some things, though. First off is the fact that she might end up being a Luigi-fied Diddy clone, though I'm sure they can work around this and make her pretty unique. Secondly is King K. Rool, who has many more requests than Dixie Kong and more potential to be a unique character. She is still one of the most likely characters in my eyes though.
Want: 75%
There was once a time where I was actually against Dixie Kong being in Smash, but I've since grown more tolerant of her. Now she's a character that I really want! Though, to be fair, if she was in this game and K. Rool isn't, then I would be pretty upset, but still, a DK newcomer is a DK newcomer to me, no matter who it is.

Predictions
Plasm Wraith: 0.61%
Lyn: 3.49%

Nominations: Shadow the Hedghog X5
I'm nominating him to the top and there's nothing you can do about it hehehe...
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

Cosmic God
Super Moderator
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Dixie Kong

Chances: 78%
Want: 98%

I'm the owner of the Dixie support thread so of course I want her.

Noms:
Uhhhhhhh...(I haven't done this since Drptember)

Nevermind. I see Nightmare was already voted :tear:

Terra Bradford x5
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Wow… Reyn might as well be my answer to Chancellor Cole. I am actually enjoying seeing him get annihilated. :laugh:

Noms: KING K. ROOL x5
If I were you, I would wait until later to nominate King K. Rool. We should at least wait for Tropical Freeze and see what is in that game and then we rate him.

This guy seems suspicious…
(not saying that I think that it's K. Rool, but it could be)

Goku x 5

No, not that Goku, but Goku from the NES game YuYuKi.
I'm glad to see someone is nominating him…

I think that it would be cool if we rate Goku from YuYuki… and Dragon Ball Goku on the same day! If we rated Reggie, we must rate Miiverse's most wanted character eventually! Hehehe…
 

Pacack

Super Pac-Fan
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Reyn:

Chance: .01%
No.

Want: 0%
No.

Dixie:

Chance: 30%
I am not confident in her chances. With uniqueness being the priority this time around, I only expect her after K. Rool.

Want: 40%
Fairly indifferent, but I'd welcome her as a Diddy clone since I never could get the hang of him.

Predictions:

Plasm Wraith: .5%
Lyn: 7.5%


Noms: Pac-Man x3, No Namco Character x2
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
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Messages
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Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Reyn
Chance - 0.1%
SHUULK!

Want - 0%
Haven't played Xenoblade to be honest, but two characters from the get go? No thanks. Shulk or bust.

Dixie
Chance 80%
Giving her a 5% rise in chance due to being in a current mindset of her joining. When it comes to K. Rool and Dixie, I waver back and forth considerably. Sometimes I see Dixie as a lock and K. Rool as not having that chance, then sometimes I see both as likely to make it, and sometimes I see only K. Rool as getting in. Right now, I'm in the Dixie side of the pendulum.

Want - 70%
Like I said before, she'd be cool and she'd fit really well. But K. Rool has such a higher want for me. If anything, I'm seeing Dixie as more likely than K. Rool (assuming only one more DK rep) in part because I don't want to be heartbroken from K. Rool not making it in. And I have a nasty feeling such heartbreak would happen in the near future if it does happen.

Predicitons
Plasm Wraith: 0.73%
Lyn: 4.7%
Not much to say about either.

Nominations
x5 Super Mario 3D World Stage
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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No, not that Goku, but Goku from the NES game YuYuKi. A great support thread made by @ Venus of the Desert Bloom Venus of the Desert Bloom can be found here.
If someone were to start nominating *THAT* Goku, it may provide for a very, very interesting day. I think I would allow the nominations to fly if there weren't a bunch of objections to it...

REYN TIME! Double 0's
Reyn has absolutely no shot at getting in before Shulk, and the chance of two Xenoblade newcomers is equally nonexistent. That leaves him without any chance. I personally think a One-and-Shulk-Done is what fits Xenoblade the best; I have no desire to see multiple characters from the game.

Dixie Kong
EVERYTHING
points towards getting a DK newcomer. I'll list just delineate it for you:
1) Sales to Character Ratio: Although the DK franchise is behind only Mario, Pokemon, Wii, and Zelda in terms of sales, it has only two characters playable in Smash.
2) Relevancy: It has a big new game coming out, and said game was a big title in development while Smash was being planned.
3) Demand: Fan demand for a DK character is obnoxiously high. One character is in the High Tier of Requests, a second is in the Middle Tier of Requests.
4) Character-Centric Series: Characters make the DK series. The games usually alternated between protagonists. They also created a memorable villain and cast of side characters.
5) Incomplete Series: There are still important characters from the series that are not on the roster.

Based on the points I've made, I'd say that there is a 20% of no DK newcomer, a 20% chance of two DK newcomers, and an 60% chance of one DK newcomer. I can't say for certain that there will be a newcomer because there are limited slots available and strong cases can be made for other non-DK characters. Even with this observation, please note that I say there's a stronger chance of a DK newcomer than there is of getting Little Mac, Miis, Pac-Man, or Palutena. There is a 20% chance of two DK characters because the franchise has multiple strong candidates for a roster spot. Now, there are really three candidates and three candidates only for this slot. I now see the breakdown as follows:


Dixie Kong: 45% chance
Dixie Kong made her first appearance in the oft-acclaimed DKC2. She went on to be the star of the oft-forgotten DKC3. Although she disappeared for DK64, she resurfaced in a few spin-offs and has scored a prominent role in Tropical Freeze. This prominent role in Tropical Freeze is one of her biggest boons--she's relevant and her playability in Smash would definitely hype the game. In addition to her relevance, she also has the ease of creation advantage--her body frame is so similar to Diddy's that she would be one of the easier newcomers to make. Her popularity and importance to her series are high--but are not quite as much so as a competitor of hers. Finally, she gets bonus points for being a strong female character, something that seems to be helping characters out this time. Her main drawbacks are her lack of obvious uniqueness and the severe competition she faces.
Dixie Kong Want: 66%
I've often bashed her in the past because I'd prefer K. Rool or Kranky. Playing through DKC2 has reminded me that she's a good character, and that my reason for not wanting her is simply competition. Even so, I'd have to admit that she'd be one of my favorite potential newcomers if not for the fact that her confirmation would destroy the likelihood of seeing my number one newcomer.


King K. Rool: 40% chance
King K. Rool is the main villain of the Donkey Kong franchise. He was the main villain of every game in the original DKC trilogy, the main villain in DK64, and the antagonist in most of the spin-off titles. Once the ubiquitous final boss, he's completely disappeared from his own franchise lately... much to the chagrin of his large, vocal fanbase. This fanbase is huge in the East and the West and makes him one of the most requested characters worldwide. Outside of popularity and importance to the franchise as a whole, his other selling points include potential for uniqueness and his status as a villain. He lacks relevancy, and, while he could be used to promote Tropical Freeze even if he doesn't appear in it, this would be done much better by his competitors. He's not as simple to make as Dixie, and he would require more work. Since he's a Donkey Kong character, he faces strong kompetition.
King K. Rool Want: 100%
My favorite potential newcomer. When I was a lad, I always thought he was pretty cool, and he was the first character I ever made a Smash moveset for. That's what's always drawn me to him: I just flat out think he'd be awesome to play as in Smash for moveset and matchup potential. I supported him pre-Brawl (though stated I would definitely be satisfied with just Diddy), and I will support him for every Smash game until he makes the cut.


Cranky Kong: 15% chance
Although he may be the dark horse candidate of this race, he still stands a fair chance. He's a side character in almost every DK game up until Tropical Freeze, where he was elevated to playable character. Although he's more ubiquitous in the series than either Dixie or K. Rool, he lacks the important roles that they play. He has relevance on par with that of Dixie and he could be used for promotion. His main perk is his cane-bounce and use of his cane for other purposes; he probably surpasses Dixie in terms of unique potential. He lacks Dixie's ease of creation, however, and he's behind her (and FAR behind Rool) in terms of requests. Unless they decide to promote Tropical Freeze but don't see Dixie as unique enough to warrant a spot (or group her with Diddy), then he probably won't manage to get in.
Cranky Kong Want: 99%
As a character, Cranky far surpasses K. Rool in my tastes. I've always loved his not-so-subtle fourth wall shattering and the fact that he is actually THE Donkey Kong. I'd love to see him come in and teach those youngsters a lesson! Even so, I'd prefer K. Rool because he has more of a "coolness" factor to me when it comes to playableness in Smash.

..whew. Over a thousand words later, I now have odds for the DK franchise. But what if something... unexpected... happens. What if K. Rool actually is in Tropical Freeze? Wouldn't that eliminate the relevancy edge of Dixie and Cranky? It would. And K. Rool being in Tropical Freeze... probably not going to happen, but it's not all that far-fetched.



If K. Rool were to appear in Tropical Freeze game as the final boss in disguise or even as a post-game secret fight for some post-launch/immediate pre-launch hype, my scores would change to the following: Dixie Kong at 30%, Cranky Kong at 5%, and K. Rool at 65%.

Whew. Done. Finally. Let's toss in an E Gadd x10. I'm not predicting today because I'm too burnt out.

DAY OVER

REYN TIME IS OVER
 
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Groose

Smash Champion
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
2,228
Location
Villanova
Reyn (Xenoblade)
0.41% chance
8.00% want

The only thing that Reyn'd on Reyn's day was double 0's! Reyn shall slot in as Rank 115 on the chance charts. Worst of all, his want score of exactly 8% places him ahead of only Cloud Strife, Ninten, and Chancellor cole on the want charts. Ouch. Looks like it isn't Reyn time, after all!

Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong)
63.68% chance
(DAY 65: 55.39%) and (DAY 7: 57.38%)
68.25% want (DAY 65: 40.60%) and (DAY 7: 50.17%)
I have to admit... that was pretty impressive. Dixie Kong's second rating saw her chance and want scores both dip, but this third rating has driven both scores to heights never seen before. She rose from Rank 8 in chance to Rank 5, placing her right behind behemoths Ridley and K. Rool. In terms of want, she was previously out of the Top 25, but this rerate has pushed her up all the way to Rank 7; she was just a few hairs behind Isaac and a bit ahead of Shulk in that regard. Best of all, we may know shortly if she did indeed warrant the jump in chance...

Today we're rating the Plasm Wraith from Pikmin in chance and want. I... have to do some research before I tackle this one. Sorry for the lack of witty remarks there. In addition, we'll be rating Lyn from the Fire Emblem series in chance and want. Can Lyn beat out the behemoths Chrom and Robin, or will she perform as poorly as in her last rating?

Tomorrow we're having a pair of interesting characters. Please predict how Black Mage of Final Fantasy fame will fare. Additionally, please predict how well Pokemon Trainer will do. As a reminder, I won the noms yesterday, and Smasher 101 will announce today's winners at some point during the current day.


...will edit the OP tomorrow. I just need to get away from this computer as soon as possible tonight.
 

Chandeelure

Bandana Brigade Captain
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Based on the points I've made, I'd say that there is a 20% of no DK newcomer, a 20% chance of two DK newcomers, and an 80% chance of one DK newcomer.

:troll:

-Plasm Wraith:
Chances:1%
Want:5%

-Lyn:
Chances:40%
Want:55%

-Black Mage prediction:2%

-PT prediction:65%

-Nomination:Lor Starcutter X5
 

Capybara Gaming

Just Vibing
Joined
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Messages
9,800
Location
Kamurocho
Plasm Wraith:
Chance - 0% will most certainly not be in, being a boss, and not a major one either. Louie, Alph, Brittany, Charlie, heck even a Bulborb have a better chance than this overrated blob.
Want: 0% - No thanks. Olimar + One other Pikmin Protagonist pls

Lyn:
Chance: 8% - She has lost alot of thunder with FE series newcomer characters Chrom and Lucina. being an assist only helps so much.
Want: 50% - I could take it or leave it.

Black Mage: 2.80% - he makes the most sense of FF characters besides the Warrior of Light, and is great, but I doubt he will get in because Slime is morepopular in Japan.

PKMN Trainer: 6.70% - He is loved by some and hated by others.

Noms:
Sora x3
Alexandra Roivas x2
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Plasm Wraith
Chance: 0% - Best case scenario, it will be a boss. No way it will be playable.
Want: 10% - Titan Dweevil is 1000 times the final boss that Plasm Wraith will ever hope to be.

Lyn
Chance: 0% - She needs to get in line behind Ike, Roy, Chrom, Robin, Lucina, and Anna.
Want: 10% - Ironic that it's the same chance and want as Plasm Wraith. It's not that I don't like her, it's just that Awakening was one of my favorite games in the past four years. I really feel that it really deserves a playable character in SSB4.

Black Mage prediction: 1.3%

Pokemon trainer prediction: 81.38%

Nominations: improved stage builder x5 (Any fellow stage builder fans want to give me a hand with these?) :)
 
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