Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Sid-cada]

Dark Matter

Chance - 8.5% - Ah, Dark Matter, one of the longstanding final bosses of Kirby. I'd place him right up there with the Nightmare Wizard and Marx in terms of iconic final bosses, being remembered as a classic character that long time fans will forever love. For being one of the most reoccurring final bosses in the series history, one of the most influential in boss design, and association with there literally literally bloody Zero making him so memorable, I'd actually call him the second most likely of all Kirby characters (after Dee, of course).
There are a few things standing in his way, however, and Dee is the least of his concerns. Dark Matter is one of the Kirby characters not involved with Sakurai at all, instead made by Shinichi Shimomura. There seemed to be a stigma against using such characters for the longest time after his unconfirmed passing (RIP) until recently, and what Sakurai seems to think of his stuff as a whole is mostly unknown (outside of allowing certain content in Smash Brothers). Still, with ever increasing references to the "Dark Matter Trilogy" and a move towards classical references in Kirby, it should be no surprise that someone at Hal Labs has him in mind.

Want - 70% - If that wall of text was not a big tip-off, I'm a very big Kirby fan. I remember going online, searching everything I could about Kirby after getting my hands on the first game I went to the end-boss to, Nightmare in Dreamland. Believing it to be a relatively obscure series, I was surprised to find out there was actually a fan community. Looking up info on older games made me surprised on how much sinister stuff was hidden away, and cemented my status as a long-time fan. At the center was of course Dark Matter (and Zero), who was the most extreme example (and still is). Now that I have actually played the "Dark Matter Trilogy" thanks to Dream Collection, while I can say that the style of gameplay was not to my liking, Dark Matter was. Seeing Dark Matter in Smash Brothers would be a dream come true, though I still want Dee more.


Blue Slime

Chance - 3% - No big changes sense my last nomination. They're a third party that I could see happening, though third-parties are very tricky to deal with, and they're not very requested compared to the likes of big names like Mega Man and Sonic.

Want - 60% - No change again. They're famous enough to get a pass from me, though that's it.


Quote Prediction - 0.95% - An indie character? That's... unusual. It's third party status plus obscurity, though it's a relatively famous indie game, I'll give it that.

Nominations
Scrooge McDuck X5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Dark Matter Likelihood: 1%
Want: 50%
Gotta keep in mind that Dark Matter is from Shimomura Kirby games, not Sakurai Kirby games.

Slime likelihood: 0%
Want: 35%

Quote: 1.85%

Wrestler x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Dark Matter: 0.21% Waddle Dee or bust.
Want: 0% Waddle Dee or bust

Slime: 4%
Want: 2%

Quote: 0.72%

x5 Bowser Jr.

Groose, since I gave all of the nominations to Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario, may I request that you hold off rating him until Bowser Jr. has been rated?

 

[Smasher 101]

Dark Matter's chances: 0.5% - Although I still don't think Bandana Dee is likely, I do think it's going to be him if Kirby gets a fourth.
Want: 0% - Not interested.

Slime: 5%
Want: 0%

Quote prediction: 0.54%

Muddy Mole x5

 

[Xenigma]

Dark Matter - 0%
I'll confess to knowing little about this character, but it appears that in most of his appearances he's little more than a flying eyeball, and while he has had a Smash-friendly body in Dream Land 2, that's still just one Gameboy game. Seems too oddball a candidate to have a chance versus the far more obvious Bandana Dee, not to mention more sensible edge cases like Prince Fluff or Adeleine. Also, why would Sakurai pursue a Kirby villain when he's already got two on the roster, more than any other franchise? Seems too crazy to be possible.
Want - 0% - Seems like a wasted slot, and knowing how passionate the Bandana fans are, I can't imagine they'd want him to lose the slot to DM either.

Slime - 2%
He's probably the most sensible Square Enix rep available, sure. I just don't see why Sakurai would particularly want to pursue a Square Enix rep. After all, with Mega Man and Sonic in, Pac-Man a rumored newcomer, and Snake a possible returning veteran, there would need to be something awfully special to justify a fifth third party character. Beyond that, he's just a weird character to implement, so he might be avoided simply due to the extra work needed to make a sensible, fun moveset. Plausible, but seems unlikely.
Want - 0% - If we had to get a Square Enix character, I'd much rather see an iconic FF character or something, not a generic monster.

Quote Prediction - 0.4%
People wouldn't rate a random indie character highly...would they?

Nominations
Sheik x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

EDIT: @ Toxicroaker : Be sure to include these songs:
These.

Will do. Soon.
EDIT: Done; for if you were worried it wasn't to much for Groose

 

[Aqua Rock X]

DARK MATTER

Chance: 0% - Too big! The KD2 version would be a Metaknight clone!

Want: 0% - He makes a better stage hazard/Yellow Devil to Kirby's stage than a playable.

SLIME

Chance: 5% - Not too likely considering SE's tight "squeenix" on characters...*Bricked to death*

Want: 60% - Mostly indifferent but I've always been a fan of the idea of a slime knight - basically an armored slime with a shield and sword rides a chocobo. The chocobo acts as the legs and the slime as the upper body and the two form a complete character.

Quote Prediction: .3% - Another research day.

Nominations:
Pichu x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Dark Matter
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
Not interested

Slime
Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
Feasible, but not probable

Quote: 0.4%
Lots of "who?" Including myself.

Nominations:
DLC characters x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

DARK MATTER

Chance: 0% - Too big!

Want: 0% - He makes a better stage hazard/Yellow Devil to Kirby's stage than a playable.

SLIME

Chance: 5% - Not too likely considering SE's tight "squeenix" on characters...*Bricked to death*

Want: 60% - Mostly indifferent but I've always been a fan of the idea of a slime knight - basically an armored slime with a shield and sword rides a chocobo. The chocobo acts as the legs and the slime as the upper body and the two form a complete character.

Quote Prediction: .3% - Another research day.

Nominations:
Pichu x5

but hes the size of meta knight

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Dark Matter: 0%
Isn't really present in multiple Kirby games, especially not the more recent ones.

Want: 0%
He was the guy that turned into a bleeding eyeball, right? Yeah, no, please don't add him. PLEASE, I'M BEGGING YOU.

Slime: 0.1%
Even if we got a Squeenix rep, there's no certainty that they'll add a Dragon Quest rep rather than one from one of their other IPs.

Want: 0%
Don't ask.

"Prediction": "0.91%"

Nominate:
No Namco rep x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Dark Matter - 0.25%
Slime - 13%

predict - 1.2%

Black Mage x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Dark Matter:

Chance: 2%
Doesn't add enough to break the relative obscurity barrier.

Want: 5%
I like Kirby games, but why Dark Matter?


Slime:

Chance: 46%
Bravely Default, Bravely Second, DQM2 and DQXs first expansion have all come or been announced since last time, SE have been putting alot of effort into Nintendo recently, and Nintendo have been very supportive of them too. This continued support in Directs makes me think any talks about Slime in smash ended strong.. And I see too much sense in his inclusion, for both companies, for them to not have already rudimentarily have such a discussion.

Moreover, Luna has bought a small touch of further hope that non-humanoids can have extended hit boxes and fight just as well as there belimbed opponents. Now I didn't doubt Slime's potential, but we have some president that Samurai can think of moves for non-standard shaped fighters.

His animations would be easy to make, and the call on Sqare Enix for western DQ releases, and Japan often considering DQ the most important third party left (though often not thinking of a character) I think he could visibly do a Sonic and be added later too, though maybe not this late... Still he is a third party though, and only Pac-Man can be considered a truly likely third party (50+%) and even then only just in my opinion.

Want: Guess
You know those videos of people screaming and guffawing over the Mega Man reveal... I would do that.

So much want!


Quote: 2.2%
Indie support is a big step, and Kickstarter is a battleground the Wii U is winning on, but that's this gen, and not really ready for smash yet. Add in the gun Issue, and I'd prefer Hat Kid instead.

Pokémon AT *5

 

[Morbi]

Dark Matter Chance: 0.1%
Dark Matter Want: 5%

Slime Chance: 0%
Slime Want: 10%

 

[FalKoopa]

Dark Matter:
Likelihood: 1%
His best bet is getting in as a boss. He doesn't really look like playable character material, and he isn't prevalent in the Kirby series after Sakurai left HAL Labs.

Want: 20%
He is like an antithesis of the cutesy look of the Kirby series, which is a plus for me. But that's about it.

Slime: 5%
Just throwing out a number. He's quite well known, but unfortunately he's not at the level of the other 3rd parties like Snake or Pac-Man.

Want: 45%
I kind of like him...

Quote prediction: 0.34%
Meat Boy will be jealous of his score.

Chrom x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dark Matter:

Chance: 0% - Not happening.

Want: 75% - And it sucks that it ain't happening, because it would be a ****ing awesome character.

Slime:

Chance: 5% - Don't see him happening, but because of Dragon Quest's enormous popularity in Japan I'm not going to give it 0%.

Want: 35% - Would be kind of neat, but eh.

Nominations:
5x Chrom

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dark Matter
Chance: 5%
Pretty much a no hoper, but since Sakurai is the man behind Smash(and I personally believe that modesty barrier is bull**** at this point) I'm going to give him slightly higher than the majority here. I'm not overly familiar with the Kirby franchise but even I know who Dark Matter is.

Spoiler

Also him being dead doesn't mean anything. Ganondorf is all sorts of dead thanks to Toon Link, but he still got in Brawl. The main reason being they are trophies thus canon can be ignored.

Overall though he's got a much higher chance of being a boss than a playable character, but even in that category he's got some stiff competition from other Kirby villains.

Plus Bandanna Dee is more likely.

Want: 4%
Bandanna Dee first please. Then we'll talk. Actually I'd prefer Gooey first too since SSB Crusade has made me warm upto him.

About that Slime, eh chaps?
Chance: 2%
I can't see Slime getting in as the Square-Enix character. He's the ONLY Dragon Quest character that is likely to have a shot, but frankly beating out the more world wide popular Final Fantasy characters is unlikely at best. I'd place his Mario Sports co-stars Black Mage and Moogle higher than him in chance.

Want: 0%
No arms and no legs...if we wanted a blob of gunk I'd suggest a Nintendo one first; Gooey or Ditto(or Goomy, Grimer, etc). Still a much better choice than Cloud or Sora(although Black Mage is arguably a slightly less offensive choice), but with so little newcomers being promised Slime would feel like a really weird pick.

I did give him a higher want last time, but with actual Nintendo Stars not making the cut like Starfy and Toad, I'd rather we hold off on the 3rd party nonsense until the next game. Pac-Man or bust for 3rd Party newcomer plz.

Quote prediction: 0.02%
Not legendary enough, not associated with Nintendo in any way, but does Sakurai know Cave story's creator? If not I'm doubting it'll be a very high score at all. Prepare for another 0% want from me too.

Nominations: Robin X 5

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Dark Matter:

Want: 0%
Chance: 5%

Slime:
Want: 0%
Chance: 5%

I don't know any of those guys... -_-

Renomination: X 5 Robin from fire emblem

 

[Louie G.]

DARK MATTER:

Chance: 2.5%
Yeah, Waddle Dee or bust. You saw it coming. Seriously, there's not a Kirby character more important than Waddle Dee at the moment, he wields a spear to be more unique, etc etc etc.

Want: 65%
Could be interesting I guess. It's a bit of a generic title, Dark Matter, but if we're talking about the one with a sword that could be cool.

SLIME:

Chance: 5%
I can't see another Square Enix rep happening. Dragon Quest is the franchise with the strongest ties to Nintendo, and Slime is the mascot. I guess he can do things as shown by Mario Sports Mix.

Want: 80%
Honestly, I'm interested. I don't know exactly how it could work, but I have faith that if Sakurai really wanted to add this character he could.

Quote Prediction: 1.5%
Yeah, probably not.

Noms: Halberd x5

And Groose, may I recommend everyone gets 10 noms instead of 5?
5 towards a character and 5 towards a concept/stage/etc?

 

[SuperBrawler]

DARK MATTER

CHANCE: 2%
Yeah, I don't see it happening.

WANT: 53%
Might be interesting. He did make Pinky into what he is today. Go read Brawl in the Family.

SLIME

CHANCE: 3%
I don't see it happening either.

WANT: 60%
He is interesting, and he is personally better than Cloud, Sora, and the likes of them.

QUOTE PREDICTION: 1.2%

Noms: Pichu x5

And Groose, may I recommend everyone gets 10 noms instead of 5?
5 towards a character and 5 towards a concept/stage/etc?

I agree with Louie here.

 

[jaytalks]

Dark Matter:
Chances: 1%
Want: 0%
I'm neutral so it's 0% from me.

Slime:
Chances: 5%
Dragonquest is huge in Japan and respectable every else. It also has been a Nintendo exclusive series in recent years, and would reflect Nintendo's good relationship with Square Enix. There is no downside to the tear drop that skyrockets across the world!!!
Want: 100%
Better than most Square Enix choices and he isnt a Sony guy like many of the other suggestions. The only good Square Enix characters besides Slime would be from SNES days. But really awesome character and it's about slime we got him!

Quote Prediction: It should be very low. 0.35%

Nominations:
Micaiah x 5

 

[Starcutter]

DM: 5% if they want someone from kirby but don't go for the obvious. who's the obvious? go ask chandelure. He'll know.
Want: 10%

Slime: 2%
Want: 5% he's not even my favorite goo-based character.

Quote: 0.11%

Noms:
Stork x3
Grovyle x2

 

[Cheezey Bites]

40.59% Want so far for slime, in the west, not too bad... I guess I've worked my advertising magic on this board at least... Not looking at chance cos that'll be depressing, but Slime's a hard sell so I'm fairly happy with the number of high want stats.

 

[FalKoopa]

The directory on the front page is now up-to-date with Brawler610's post.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Dark Matter - 2%

One of the most recurring Kirby villains, but....Sakurai's modesty, plus the fact that it seems more like boss material, and the fact that it's only notable appearance since Kirby 64 is in Mass Attack, and even then it only appears as a boss in a sub-game. (the final boss to be specefic, but my point still stands)

Want - 50% It would be an awesome character, but I'd much prefer Bandana Dee even still.


Slime - 5%

I'd think we'd get something other than a Slime if a Square Enix character is playablre.

Want -10%

Quote Prediction - 2.11%

x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Starcutter]

I think Quote going up is perfect timing since they are playing cave story on Steam Train. now I'll be able to figure out what it is.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I think Quote going up is perfect timing since they are playing cave story on Steam Train. now I'll be able to figure out what it is.

You could always play it.
It's a free game.

 

[Natz~]

dark matter: 1%
uh. . . does he even count?
want: 0%
no thanks
slime: 5%
square enix could get a character, though not too likely
want: 50%
indeifferent
quote: 1%
who?
nominations: chrom+5
I want to badger this guy, -_-

 

[Starcutter]

It's a free game.

SINCE WHEN?

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

SINCE WHEN?

2004. It was originally released for free by the guy who made it, and got a fan translation. There's been a few rereleases, namely for the 3DS, Wiiware, Xbox 360, and Steam (which use a different translation), but they all cost money. You can still download the original release for free.

 

[Groose]

EXPECTING AN UPDATE?!?

Well, let me do a little explaining: I normally don't update on Sundays.Haven't done so since September. In part, that's due to just wanting a day off. In part, that's due to using the day to prepare myself for the upcoming week. In part, that's due to...

And for some crazy reason, the NFL decided to make the game this week on a SATURDAY. So, no, I'm not updating today. I'll be watching the Eagles trounce the Saints. Tomorrow? 50/50 that I update. I hate leaving you guys stuck on the same "Day" for three days in a row, and the Eagles aren't playing... so I may update tomorrow. We'll see.

So, what I'm trying to say here is basically this:

Oh, and by the way: the new site update took away my power to change the thread title. So, from now on, the thread title will remain the same; please look at either the OP or the latest posts to judge what day it is, OK? I'll be checking regularly for a fix, and will pick up the old ways when I am able to.​

And Groose, may I recommend everyone gets 10 noms instead of 5?
5 towards a character and 5 towards a concept/stage/etc?

I'm still actively debating this with myself. Really, though, we're nearing the point where most people should be putting votes into the "renom/concept" section.

The directory on the front page is now up-to-date with Brawler610's post.

Erm.. it wasn't before?

 

[Starbound]

If you're okay with it, I can count up the scores for Dark Matter and Slime, count the nomz and start the next day.

 

[Groose]

If you're okay with it, I can count up the scores for Dark Matter and Slime, count the nomz and start the next day.

I wouldn't be opposed to this normally, but when I need to do some renovations on the thread this update. Thanks for the offer, but I think it would be best if I just made time for an update sometime tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Two things that I want to mention about the Directory:
1. Every time when I post a character's chances, I will link the Directory. I should warn you guys that there will be a point where I will have to make a separate Directory, but I dunno when that will come up.
2. Groose has found for me Brawl's Rate Their Chances on GameFAQs! I have also put this in the Directory. I think it would be a nice thing to look at to compare and contrasts the scores for characters back then and today as some scores are drastically different. (Krystal did much better back then as opposed to now for example) Here is a link to the GameFAQs thread.

Also, here is a link to the Directory!

 

[colder_than_ice]

Dark Matter
Chance: 0% - He's insignificant and forgettable despite being a Final Boss.
Want: 27% - He has an interesting move set potential, and would probably be fun to use.

Slime
Chance: 0% - Even if we were to get a Square Enix character, there are still many better candidates.
Want: 97% - I've always been a fan.

Quote prediction: 0.14%

Nominations: Gyromite Stage x5

 

[Xenigma]

Eagles

Wait, the Eagles game is tonight? Forget RTCR, IT'S TIME TO WATCH THE SAINTS GET SENT HOME!

 

[Morbi]

Wait, the Eagles game is tonight? Forget RTCR, IT'S TIME TO WATCH THE SAINTS GET SENT HOME!

Doesn't it only take like 3 minutes to articulate a sufficient post?

 

[Glaciacott]

Dark Matter
Chance - 2%
When you think about it it really is a somewhat important character in the Kirby franchise. And really, what has made the franchise so interesting and great, in part, is the fact that for something so cutesy and adorable, the final bosses are always freaking dark and twisted and all-out terrifying.
However, the fact that dark matter doesn't receive that much attention, the fact that for the most part it has no real body, and the fact that it's clearly not a recurring boss anymore ... it all adds up to detract from the chances.
Ignoring, of course, the fact that Bandana Dee pretty much has the fourth Kirby spot guaranteed if the fourth spot does happen.

Want - 20%
Meh. I'd prefer Magolor if we wanted to go for something a bit more evil from Kirby.

Slime
Chance - 3%
I don't remember what I gave him last time, guess I'll do 3% this time. I really really don't see us getting a Square Enix character. Sure, they seem friendly with Bravely Default and all of that, but I'm pretty sure that's just mostly because the huge power of the 3DS in Japan and them wanting to be a part of that. I also don't see fan interest or demand on Slime, even though conceivably if they actually localized Dragon Quest then maybe it'd make sense. But we're not seeing that yet.
Now, from Japan's perspective though, I could see Slime being huge ... but then the question is, just how iconic will Sakurai deem the character. And when it comes to that, Slime is nowhere near Mega Man, Sonic or Pac-Man levels.

Want - 10%
It'd be cool, but let's really consider the things Square Enix could bring if they wanted to have their properties in Smash.
For one, Final Fantasy was a huge part of the SNES days, and they could easily have a black mage representing that. All the classic final fantasy magic spells fit perfectly and it's easier to work with than a Slime.
Following that, we have Geno. Yes, it's not a huge, iconic character per se, but the fan demand was massive during the Brawl days, and it's a genuinely fun, cool character that pretty much has a moveset ready.
And lastly, for the love of God, Crono. I literally cannot think of someone who could be a more exciting Smash Bros. addition than Crono. This is one of the characters that defined the SNES experience, like Mega Man helped define the NES days. Plainly put, I cannot have that much want from Slime because if we get down to it, Crono is just the more gigantic and meaningful video game icon we could get from Square Enix, assuming they did support their characters in Smash.

Prediction
Quote - 1.2%
A whole lot of "who?" and a whole lot of "why?"

Nominations
x5 Magnus
Guess I'll stick with him, even though I really really want to start nominating stages.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Newcomers
X10 Yarne and Owain Tag-Team (Fire Emblem)

Groose, shouldn't this be at 20 since I had 2 days + 1 day of extra noms? Excluding this day.

 

[Gunla]

Welcome to the Dark Matter Disco!

Pros!
+Kirby Villain (Dedede is mostly a rival now!)
+Interesting potential with those multiple forms.
Cons!
-BANDANA DEE! Seriously, like, nothing beats Bandana's Chances. Bandana has violently and effectively Speared out the chances of other potentials, Chandelure and BigAxle style.

Overall... Bandana Dee murders him. There's no real contest, sadly. There's some good arguements out there, but Dark Matter has remained in limbo since Dream Land 3, replaced by the far more awesome Zero, Zero-Two and "Zero-Three" Magalor. .9%

Want: Over Bandana Dee?

0%

HERE COMES A OLD CHALLENGER!
Slime Puns.

Pros!
+Little competition. Then again that competition is pretty huge.
Cons!
-Other Square-Enix Characters like Sora are the opposition. It's an unclear contest.
-Doesn't seem likely we are getting a Square 4th Party. It hasn't been very requested, with other SE potentials also battling for the slot that might not even be there.

Overall... If we got a Square Character, it would likely be him. Or it. But that's not seeming too likely at the moment, but who knows? (Wait, Sakurai does. ) 3%

Want: There's a Square Character I want that I'd love to death to have in, but I know she's nearly impossible. Kidd from Chrono Cross. I don't think Slime is a necessarily unique character, but a generic enemy most of the time. But if we saw the Slime from Rocket Slime, that'd be pretty cool.

Still want Kidd Zeal more. 15%.

Noms
X6 Extensive Alternate Costumes (DONE, BABY!)

Who gets my 4 Nominations Today?
A variety of people, with Muddy Mole X4!

 

[Erimir]

Dark Matter

Don't know much about him, but I don't consider a 4th Kirby rep terribly likely, and Bandana Dee seems maybe more likely.

Dark Matter chances: 2%

Dark Matter want: 10%

Slime

My thoughts about him are largely the same as before. More Square Enix games on Nintendo is, well, helpful maybe. But pretty minor compared to what they're putting out on the other consoles - it's not a great relationship.

People are saying Square Enix is tight with their characters. And I know of no personal connection that's going to get a Square Enix character into the game by personal request. All in all, Sonic and Mega Man got in because of massive fan demand, while Snake got in because of a personal connection. Square Enix characters don't have that so much, and a much worse relationship with Nintendo to boot.

This mainly comes down to the chance of a Square Enix rep, and I personally consider that to be pretty low.

Slime chances: 1.5%

Slime want: 18%
Don't really care. I have Square Enix characters I'd rather see, and plenty of other characters I'd rather see than the actually plausible Square Enix characters.

Quote prediction: 0.1%
Who nominated this guy anyway?

Nominations:
Pichu x5

Nominate:
No Namco rep x5

Just going to note that if anybody nominates "Namco rep" these are functionally equivalent to rate, as one would simply be the inverse of the other.