GROOSE:
Two things... we didn't rate Mega Man, Villager and Wii Fit Trainer on satisfaction. Maybe we can do those on days when there's not a re-rate or concept?
The other is that I think we should've been doing nominations today. Mine would've been 5x Pichu.
Edited to add from later post:
Can we still predict Nintendog? I guess I didn't before, and you usually take predictions as long as the next day hasn't started...
Nintendog: 0.34%
Being a puppy is not a promising start for a fighter. But a realistic puppy that isn't playable, and is also a background element and an AT already? Who is going to be giving this anything but a sliver?
Rosalina confirmation!
Let's see what I said before...
Popularity: She's somewhat popular. I think she's a bit more popular among the non-hardcore crowd. I know some people who really liked her a lot in Galaxy and Mario Kart, but they don't get into Smash games that much. Even so, she's higher up on the list, but still out of the top tiers.
The differing reactions in different places makes this seem even more true.
Relevancy: She's a major player in the Galaxy games, of course, and she's been in the Mario Kart games (although that matters less). Her recent reveal for SM3DW helps though. I don't think it's too late to matter, at all. This was only revealed less than two weeks before SM3DW launches. She was not just added now, she was probably already planned for the game before E3. Sakurai has had plenty of time to know about that. Rosalina seems more likely to become a permanent fixture in the Mario games, and she allows Nintendo to add a female character to the series who's less of a blank slate than Daisy.
I'm glad I bumped her up significantly due to SM3DW... Just wish I had bumped her even more.
Design: She has a wand and could probably make use of Lumas in her move set. On the whole, her canon moves are pretty thin though. Sakurai could fill it out, but she's no Olimar or Mega Man as far as uniqueness.
Whoops.
Roster and Competition: Her biggest competition is Bowser Jr. The model predicts 0.6 to 1.2 additional slots for the Mario series. I would go more on the low end of that range, considering Mario was cut from 5 to 4 from Melee to Brawl (granted, Dr. Mario made sense to cut, but every other series with cuts got replacements). The rapid pace of Mario series reveals is potentially suggestive of more Mario characters, then again it just might be Sakurai not feeling the need to beat around the bush this time (like anyone doubted Luigi would get in b/c he wasn't revealed before Brawl launched). I think it's realistic for there to be a new rep, although I wouldn't be too surprised if there wasn't. Anyway, there doesn't seem to be room for more than one Mario newcomer. Toad would've been a bigger worry for her if not for him still being in Peach's move set. And to be honest, Toad's canon move set potential is pretty bad (although they could fill it in with made up stuff and mushroom-based attacks, etc.).
Looks like I should've gone more on the high side. I was considering a Mario newcomer more like a 60-70% chance. Now I'm thinking a 6th slot for Mario is not out of the question (but not too likely either).
Rosalina chances: 13.5%
Rosalina want: 65%
I like the Mario series and think it deserves another rep. I think Toad deserves it more, but aside from that I don't really care about Rosalina vs. Bowser Jr, Waluigi or Paper Mario.
Yeah, not the most accurate. But a one in seven chance is far from nothing. Even if there had been more hints or we had had more time to let SM3DW sink in, I still wouldn't have considered her more likely than not. But I might've put her more around 25%-40%.
Playing Super Mario 3D World, and I have to say: it's a great game. And Rosalina isn't just a hidden character, there is significant Mario Galaxy content (music, stages that make references, etc.). Rosalina is actually quite fun to play as, and I've become more fond of her as a result.
Rosalina satisfaction: 95%
I put her at 65% want and said I didn't care that much about Bowser Jr vs. Waluigi vs. Paper Mario. I've changed my mind. I'm glad it's her first. She gives more female representation, her move set looks cool, and I've soured somewhat on Waluigi and Paper Mario. I'm happy Mario is getting a newcomer. Mario is the highest selling video game series, one of the best video game series, and one of my favorite video game series. It
should have more than four slots.
That said, I don't feel she should get 100% since she's not quite in my top tier of wanted newcomers.
Random couple other thoughts:
-I wonder how big she is? She looks kinda big... I'd be interested to see how she compares to some of the less cartoony characters like Samus or Marth just standing up.
-Similarly, I wonder how much she'll weigh. She's a heavy character in Mario Kart, so I'm gonna assume she'll be heavier than Mario, Luigi and Peach. Dunno about her vs. Yoshi or Wario. Definitely lighter than Bowser though.
-Do different colored Lumas do anything different, or is it merely appearance?
-I think she's much more like Olimar than the Ice Climbers. It looks like she can only have one Luma, but it also doesn't look like the Luma's really do much independently. We'll see more about how Rosalina's moves work, of course, but it looks like to me that the Luma can move away from Rosalina and then attacks when she does. She doesn't look nearly as difficult to use as Olimar though. I'd say she looks
less gimmicky than Olimar or Ice Climbers, and while I don't really care for playing as either of those two, I'm excited to try Rosalina out.
I was made fun of and mocked because i nominated her and gave Ray zero chances.... the nerve....
Ray definitely does not compare to Rosalina chances.... and it should be a no brainer that Mario certainly has priority over small obscure series.
Not to pile on, but... even if you take Super Mario Galaxy 1&2 and say Rosalina's "sales" are just
one tenth of those two games, she'd still be a bigger character than the entire Custom Robo series. Which is not even giving her enough credit anyway. But yeah, I stand by giving Ray a tiny score.
I wish I had taken Rosalina's SM3DW appearance a little more seriously. I thought it bumped her up, but not above Bowser Jr, considering he's still gotten more appearances than Rosalina (even lately). I guess the Mario premier titles like Galaxy and 3D World might count for more than the New Super Mario Bros series, which while fun and high-selling, doesn't inspire nearly so much critical adulation.
Concerning Other Characters:
I put our odds at getting one Mario Newcomer at 90%; it's become far more important to Nintendo from the Wii days onwards and it was pretty obvious to me that we were getting a character. However, I'd say our chance of getting a second is low; somewhere from 20%-40%, maybe? The fact that all of them are revealed already makes me suspicious for one more hidden one, but I don't think it will crowd things TOO much. With this in mind, Jr. is down to about 20%, Wa down to about 10%, and Paper Mario 7.5%? I dunno. Honestly, I could see Waluigi go without a mention, Bowser Jr. become an AT, and Paper Mario get a stage. That seems plausible.
Interestingly, you're not far off from what my model thinks.
It put the number of Mario newcomers at about 0.6 to 1.2... now that we've confirmed that it's going up to 5, I'd say that the 20% chance of another Mario newcomer is about right.
Also: I was pretty much dead-certain of a Mario character. One of the 6-10 Newcomers was always going to come from this series, in my eyes. So, when one of them did, it doesn't necessarily hurt the chances of characters from other series, as one spot was always set aside for a Mario newcomer.
To be a little clearer: For
you it doesn't hurt them, because you had factored in a Mario newcomer. For other people who didn't think a Mario newcomer was likely, they'll probably need to rethink their scores...
As far as my thoughts about how it affects ratings going forward...
Mario series:
I think she hurts all of the other possible Mario newcomers.
Bowser Jr: I thought he was the most likely Mario newcomer. He might still be in (in which case, we can't know whether Sakurai actually put him in second or not), but I'm gonna say I consider a 6th slot less likely than I had considered a 5th slot, so his score has to go down.
Toad: Additional images of Peach with Toad + Rosalina reveal. At this point, I'm thinking that Sakurai is probably not trolling with Toad. The things one would've thought were good indicators (Galaxy getting a stage, Rosalina being playable in SM3DW), were. I'm going to assume the converse is true as well. If he comes up for a re-rate, I'm gonna be putting him down in the gutter.
Waluigi: This isn't entirely rational, but seeing Rosalina's trailer and her getting confirmed, just makes me think that Waluigi doesn't really deserve it. Sakurai might put him in for a zany choice, and he's lucky Toad is basically out at this point since that reduces the damage.
Paper Mario: Toon Link is in, so I can't rule it out, but I feel like multiple Marios isn't terribly likely. At this point, I'm thinking Bowser Jr and Waluigi are the frontrunners for the 6th slot.
Other Mario characters: Yeah, I don't think any of them are happening. But in particular, I think we can safely say that Daisy is not getting in.
Other series:
-What I said up by Toad is the main takeaway. Relevancy probably matters a little more than we thought. Maybe not to the point where Sakurai is going to just put in whoever was in the most recent game in a series, but newer characters definitely have a shot, and more current series may be getting reps.
-Big series can get more reps. It makes me even more sure that we're getting a Donkey Kong newcomer. I already thought an additional slot for Pokemon was likely, but this also makes me think that perhaps a Zelda newcomer is more likely than I thought previously.
-I don't think she hurts Palutena as much as other people think. Palutena does have a distinct style, she would attack with a staff and doesn't need a helper.
-I agree that Starfy is hurt by this. Looking back, it looks kinda ridiculous that I rated him slightly higher than Rosalina. I was swayed by the other raters. If he comes up again, I'll be giving him less than a third the rating.
-Random other thought: Ever notice that Nintendo has like, no playable black characters at all?
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