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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Cheezey Bites

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If anyhing I think it raises Jr's chances, and leave Waluigi about the same.

Why? Because Mario's getting heavy representation, and the game clearly puts popularity first. Both character have large popularity bases, and thus are both going to be highly considered, and now we know full well that Sakurai has no qualms bringing in fairly minor Mario characters, let alone the bigger names of Jr and arguably Waluigi.


Still slightly peeved that Rosalina got in (given my personal dislike for her), but at least she looks like a cool character to play, and gives me hope for Ice Climbers if they have another dual fighter.


EDIT: Puyo Puyo Tetris featured fairly heavily in the JPN Direct and yet we don't even get mention :(, looks like no import for us... Same with Dragon Quest Monsters 2, but that's got a long translation process so I would expect a delay between the games being on Direct... I'm still hopeful smash is going to make DQ rise again in Europe and America! Especially with the low bar for entry set by Rosalina.

Shame we didn't get anything about Fatal Frame as some rumours where stating, but I guess Grasshopper are working on No More Heroes 3...
 
D

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If anyhing I think it raises Jr's chances, and leave Waluigi about the same.

Why? Because Mario's getting heavy representation, and the game clearly puts popularity first. Both character have large popularity bases, and thus are both going to be highly considered, and now we know full well that Sakurai has no qualms bringing in fairly minor Mario characters, let alone the bigger names of Jr and arguably Waluigi.
When you put it that way… I guess it does shine some hope. I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to give Mario 6 slots since it is the most popular video game franchise of all-time. And it's odd that Luigi was confirmed and Rosalina was confirmed. Knowing how popular the Mario series is, I think that there is still a possibility of a 6th, hidden Mario character. It's just up to Sakurai if he really wants him in the game.

I personally think that if Bowser Jr. is a newcomer, then I think that there is a possibility that we will get both King K. Rool and Dixie Kong as well. I also find Rosalina getting confirmed to slightly raise the chances for characters like Bandana Dee and Ghirahim, in my opinion.
 

Spears In Smash Bros.

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So, I was personally hoping more for Bowser Jr. as a newcomer before, but after seeing today's Nintendo Direct, I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by Rosalina's abilities. Still, though, Paper Mario is my preferred pick for a Mario newcomer, assuming his games aren't counted as their own series.

Hades: 0.9%
Are we even sure we're getting more than one Kid Icarus rep?

Want: 1%
Would've been higher, but it's getting annoying to read all of these posts in his manner of speech. Please, stop. Please.

Nintendog: Has been deconfirmed% - 0%

Nominate:
Amaterasu x5
 

Cheezey Bites

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So, getting back on thread I think my perfect KI representation would be:

Playable:
Pit
Palutena

Stage Element:
Viridi (reset forest)

Assist Trophy:
Magnus
Pyrrhon

Adventure Mode Enemies:
Mono Eye
Mick
Reaper (and Reapette)
Clubberskull
Eggplant Wizard

Boss:
Hades


Doubt we'll get two ATs though, and we'll probably not get at least one of those enemies (probably Reaper as Clubberskull would be easier to fit in a stage), but still...
 

LoneKonWolf

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A 15% chance character was revealed. We sure suck at this.
well it is understandable,
we all thought that bowser jr. and toad (well used to be) were more likely, and even to a smaller degree Waluigi and paper Mario, they were the front and side liners, sakurai just chose someone that was just out of the field of choices, so to our understanding that's why she was rated so low
 

Xenigma

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On the flip side, we did give 15% to her, which is still very possible, if unlikely. So she got lucky and the more highly rated Mario newcomers (Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Toad) were probably unlucky. Isn't the point of this that we're rating chances, not making absolute predictions?
 

Cheezey Bites

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Who's to say they got unlucky? We may yet have Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. reveals... we haven't given it a good chance, but we didn't give Rosalina one so we shouldn't assume anything.
 

Groose

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Hades Chance: 8%
Earlier this morning: Palutena 55%, Medusa 15%, Magnus 10%, Hades 10%. Now that we have a newcomer and one of the roster slots is taken? Palutena 40%, Medusa 12%, Magnus 9%, Hades 9%. Hades doesn't suffer too much, with Palutena being the main one hindered; she shares too many similarities with Rosalina.

Hades Want: 100%
Time to come clean. When I first began speculating, I always thought he'd be a much better Boss or AT because of his epic nature. Now, however, I'd love to see him. He's completely epic and I could definitely see him being one bad, bad fighter.

Nintendog Prediction: 0.03%
Chancellor Cole? Have a seat.

Tingle x5

DAY OVER
HADES IS GONE
 

Gunla

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Get ready for double zeroes. EVERYWHERE!
 

Aqua Rock X

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Sakurai - 2
Smash Speculation Community - 0

First WFT and now Rosalina. Masahiro Sock-ur-eye is the master of blindsiding! No one can see his curveballs.
 

Groose

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Hades (Kid Icarus)
9.63% chance (Medusa:11.85%) (Palutena: 70.69%)
52.19% want (Medusa: 28.26%) (Palutena: 74.73%)
Wow! Incredible! Hades kinda floundered in the chance department, but he broke the 50% mark in want. Only about a dozen or so characters have managed to do so. Buy, hey look, who cares?

Today is a special day. We are not rating any chances. We are not predicting any scores. We are not nominating anyone. A shot was fired yesterday, and it's time to react to it. Yes, I'm talking about Rosalina. Soon, you will be too (actually, you already started, but still...). Now that you have seen her in action, experienced the resulting internet reaction, and have adapted to seeing her confirmed, please rate Rosalina in satisfaction. Do you like how she looks? How she seems to play? Are you SATISFIED? Discuss what this means about other character's chances and discuss how this reflects upon our game. Remember, Rosalina was ranked 27th in chance and had the following stats: Rosalina (Super Mario): 15.77% chance, 42.90% want.

Tomorrow we'll resume with Nintendog. I'm sorry to anyone who won't enjoy this day or wished they could rate more than a single want score, but that's the way things go. We've been playing this game for over six whole months without a newcomer; getting one is a rare treat, and we should treat it as such.
 

Aqua Rock X

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Rosalina

Chance: 15% - Now that she has a playable role her prominence may increase within the Mario series.

Want: 60% - I'll be honest here, she's actually my most wanted Mario newcomer if only because of the potential with the lumas and crystals.
I gave her 15% in chance and 60% in want, the latter mostly becuase of what she could do with the Lumas and star bits. And apparently, Sakurai agrees with me!:awesome:
 

Starbound

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Satisfaction: 100% / Want: 100%

Holy crap she looks so incredible. I feel like I've been saying that for 8 hours now. :p

I think her confirmation means that we need to look past being an old character or being frequently occuring and look at every character at face value. What can character X do? How does that compare to character Y? What about Character Z?
 

Gunla

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....What. No... Rating? Huh? AXLE.EXE HAS ENCOUNTERED AN ERROR!

Okay, Rebooted.

Wait... Discuss...other...chances? Satisfaction rating...

Okay. So Groose. You want me to make a Satisfaction Rating? Fine. I will try.

Rosalina. Or, according to the website, Rosetta.

Analysis of Global Reaction:
-Man, people were pissed. I mean really pissed. I've seen bad, but GameFAQs... just, seriously. They were clamoring for Bowser Jr and they didn't get what they wanted. They were angry about a remarkable character.
Personal Reaction:
-Happy, to say the least. I was hoping that Nintendo would forgo the cop-out and instead use a character like Rosalina. Even moreso, she's with Luma, making a semi-tag-team. In addition, a certain boxer who remains to have confirmation seems to have higher chances. There's a boxing ring now, you guys know what that means...
Moveset Reaction:
-I haven't been excited for a moveset like this in a while. It's a unique combination of duo-traits, but not at the same time.
-She plays like Relius Clover with a dash of Ice Climbers. Oh, YES.
Personal Satisfaction Rating:
-I'm giving a 95%. I think that this is a great bold move by Nintendo to include a 5th Represenative. Not only does it shut up countless naysayers, kill multiple rumors... but it shows that Nintendo is looking into characters that stand out from the cast and make things unique. I'm excited for the future of Smash Bros and what we predict from now on, and this new beginning will provide a shake-up.

Tommorrow, we get to rate a character whose only backup is a theory. A theory that has little ground to stand on.

Nintendog, you are next.
 

BluePikmin11

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Ooh a Satisfaction and Want?​
Rosalina Satisfaction: 75% I thought was pretty meh. But the character seems really interesting!​
Rosalina Want: 100% Once again Sakurai sold me with the idea of Rosalina.​
 

Toxicroaker

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Rosalina: 5% Meh, not very likely imo.
Want: 0% No, just no.
As you can see I wasn't a supporter...
I thought she would be a boring piece of **** garbage Peach clone... plus she would half deconfirm bowser jr.
BUT she has surprised me.
Satisfaction: 90% Who am I kidding? 100% She has gone far beyond my expectations and as a unique gimmick in between Olimar and the Ice Climbers. She is anything but a peach clone and she has a flowy gracefulness to her that peach can only cry in the corner wish for.
Want: 50% No matter how satisfied I am I was still a Bowser Jr. fan and I am pretty sure that this deconfirmed him.
 
D

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Well, at least we are delaying the inevitable.
Rosalina Satisfaction had been added to this post.
Rosetta Rosalina
Satisfaction: 5%
Here's what I said on her day:
Rosalina
Chance: 1%
I find that these scores are overestimating her. Rosalina was confirmed to be the fifth playable character in Super Mario 3D World. Whoop-de-doo. You know who also is playable in SM3DW and isn't playable in SSB4? Toad. Toad and even Bowser Jr. are more well-known, popular, and have more of an importance to the Mario series than Rosalina. While Rosalina is well-known and popular, I find that Toad or Bowser Jr. would do justice for a new Mario rep since they are well-known, popular, and have an importance to the Mario series. There is also a Super Mario Galaxy stage. Once again, whoop-de-doo. Super Mario Galaxy is one of Nintendo's most critically acclaimed games of all-time and it would be very, very foolish if Sakurai didn't represent the game in SSB4. Just because there's a stage doesn't mean it's for Rosalina. While Rosalina is worth rating on now, it can't be said later on as we look more and more into the roster. Nintendo would have to push for her inclusion in SSB4 and Sakurai would have to have prior knowledge of SM3DW… which I'm pretty sure that he lacked seeing that Super Mario Galaxy had no content in Brawl. Overall, Rosalina's 5 seconds of fame from the Smash community are up.
…WOW. Just… wow. This was one addition that I did not see coming at all. I mean… just… wow. I knew that some character was going to be announced, and it wasn't Rosalina. I was thinking of some veteran like Zelda or a newcomer like Little Mac. I am very unsatisfied with her being on the roster. Thinking about it, I don't think that she was a waste of roster space and she looks like a unique and fun character! I bet that I will grow to love her inclusion! However, since Brawl, Bowser Jr. was my most wanted Mario character. If I thought that there would be a 5th Mario character, it would be him. When I saw Rosalina in the trailer, I screamed, "NO! NO! BOWSER JR.! NO!" Just seeing her made me lose faith in my 2nd most wanted newcomer. Though, Cheezey Bites said, I have at least a small glimmer of hope left. If there is a 6th Mario character, it's going to be Bowser Jr. Bowser Jr. had more noise than Rosalina and if Sakurai is going to neglect him but put in Rosalina, then I highly question his decision. I wouldn't put it past Sakurai to give Mario 6 reps since Mario is the most popular Nintendo franchise (and most successful video game franchise) and I do have some hope as Luigi was confirmed, meaning that a 6th Mario character is most likely kept hidden from us.
I would have given 0% satisfaction, but I realized something: her appearance has, in my opinion, opened the door for some characters. Because of Rosalina, I think that Bandana Dee and Ghirahim have slightly better chances now and I would love to have both of those characters. Other than that, I was highly disappointed due to my want for Bowser Jr. I literally screamed at the heavens and banged my head at my desk...
Want: 0%
I have no animosity towards Rosalina and I know that I will grow to like her inclusion. However, I just can't be helped but be disappointed that she could have potentially gotten in over Bowser Jr. I am keeping my faith up for the Koopa Prince and I hope that he will prevail.
 

Groose

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Rosalina SATISFACTION: 60%
Let me put it this way: I was a Toad supporter. My ideal Mario rep was taken out of the equation a while back. Yet I expected and accepted the fact that we would be getting one anyway. I expected Bowser Jr., I was hoping for Waluigi; I considered Rosalina a distant black horse candidate. Somehow, she's pulled out on top, and I can see why: as I put in my rating of her "she's the rising star of the Mario franchise." She may not have the history of Toad or the ubiquity of Waluigi, but she is the one that's grabbing major roles left and right. She started strong in Galaxy, and has rebounded lately to become playable everywhere.

I still like Waluigi and Bowser Jr. and especially Toad a lot more. Even so, I can say that I'm satisfied with Rosalina. She's a pretty decent character. I'm not in the "we need females" boat, but I acknowledge she brings a slight bit of diversity to the roster. She's a bit too much like Peach in design for my comfort, but she interacts well enough with other Smashers, as the trailer highlighted. One must also consider Luma, too---he's as much of a character now as she is. Good--I like the little guys. Lumas' very prominent position in her design and moveset makes this much more bearable for me; I was merely expecting one of them to fulfill the Toad or Waddle Dee roll.

Part of the reason why I gave her a paltry want score the last time is that I feared she was semi-clone material; instead, I'm seeing one of the most unique characters in the game. As mentioned before, Luma seeming makes her more like an Ice-Climbers than anything else. I'm not really a man for gimmicky characters (Olimar and Ice Climbers are two characters I rarely touch), but I admit it can add some great variety. I do fear they took a while perfecting this mechanic, and that this could have been better spent making simpler characters.

One thing that I like: the surprise. I love when a character surprises me. I did not expect Rosalina to be in this game, and seeing her was a shock. I've mentioned before that I love surprises; I love seeing logic overturned. Wii Fit Trainer was a bit TOO much of a surprise for my liking, but Rosalina was a pretty good surprise--she makes a degree of sense and looks really inspired. And since she was a "good surprise" for me, she gets 60% in satisfaction. I'm looking forward to her, even if she isn't a game-seller. To me, Mega Man is 100%, Villager is 95%, and Wii Fit Trainer is 40%; in other words, Rosalina can't compare to my more wanted characters, but she's still good in my eyes.

I think she blends well with other characters. She's from Space.... remember that good 'ol Melee Space Travelers mission?

Concerning Rate their Chances:
How many times have I said in the past: "the magic of this game is seeing how miserably wrong we were when the game releases", and helping us better our predictions for the next game. We've been caught off-guard today; we weren't exactly dumbfounded like with Pokemon Trainer, R.O.B., or the Wii Fit Trainer, but we really weren't expecting this. People on Miiverse and FAQs like Rosalina; that made it incredibly likely that she was irrelevant. I do hold to this: I think we should keep out current approach, with a few notes. She reaffirms that popularity matters (she's not popular here, but has a following elsewhere). She also confirms that characters will only be added if they can be made unique and bring something new to the table; all four newcomers this go round have been incredibly unique.

A bit too similar for my liking, but she's just so unique I can't stay angry.

Concerning Other Characters:
I put our odds at getting one Mario Newcomer at 90%; it's become far more important to Nintendo from the Wii days onwards and it was pretty obvious to me that we were getting a character. However, I'd say our chance of getting a second is low; somewhere from 20%-40%, maybe? The fact that all of them are revealed already makes me suspicious for one more hidden one, but I don't think it will crowd things TOO much. With this in mind, Jr. is down to about 20%, Wa down to about 10%, and Paper Mario 7.5%? I dunno. Honestly, I could see Waluigi go without a mention, Bowser Jr. become an AT, and Paper Mario get a stage. That seems plausible.

Other characters that were impacted include Palutena and Starfy. Ah, Starfy. Will we really get two star-shaped protagonists in one installment? I think not. His chances have been halved, methinks. Rosalina has a bit of what I thought Palutena would play like in her and they do have a similar aesthetic; I think she gets hurt a bit, but nothing too significant.


Also: I was pretty much dead-certain of a Mario character. One of the 6-10 Newcomers was always going to come from this series, in my eyes. So, when one of them did, it doesn't necessarily hurt the chances of characters from other series, as one spot was always set aside for a Mario newcomer. This, of course, excludes those like Starfy who are just too similar for comfort.
...and they all took a hit that day. Sadly.
 

SethTheMage

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Satisfaction: 100%
Her moveset looks very interesting and a lot more technical than most characters, so I really like that. She might be very popular in tournaments with all of the shenanigans that she and the Lumas can set up. Plus, she has a move that can draw in items (and possibly deflect projectiles, as she deflected Mario's FLUDD). That might be a problem for Peach/Zero Suit Samus users. I am very pleased with her moveset.

Want: 100%
All of my yes. Out of all of the potential Mario newcomers, I wanted her the most. I didn't consider her very likely before this, so I was a silent supporter; I didn't think that Sakurai would be this awesome. Rosalina plays pretty much how I imagined she'd play, and I am completely excited to use her.
 

Groose

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Umm, is there a difference between the two? Because I'm not certain myself...

Guys; you don't need to bring in a "want" score, merely "satisfaction." I think my original post was unclear, so I edited it. When the day is done, I will add the "satisfaction score next to her name in bold print on the results section.
 

Aqua Rock X

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DERP! I forgot to give my satisfaction.:facepalm:

Satisfaction: 95% - I have to admit I only jumped on the Rosalina bandwagon (in terms of Mario newcomer) rather recently. However, I have to say that her presence in the game actually makes me more hyped. Want stays the same.
 

Gam3rALO

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Satisfaction: 70%
Ok im not that fond of her. I was REALLY shocked that she was the first newcomer. I thought it would one that's obvious like Little Mac. I can't wait to have some fun with her. I like that 1/2 the newcomers so far are girls. (WFT does have male version though)
 

Glaciacott

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Not even close to what I was expecting in a Direct, but a very pleasant revelation. Not necessarily because I'm a fan of Rosalina (even though I really like her, use her as much as possible in Mario Kart), but more than anything because it shows that Sakurai can truly make justice to any newcomer. So many people expected Rosalina to be a Peach skin, and look how much uniqueness Sakurai just gave her. It's like moveset potential is never a problem because, damn, Sakurai WILL make it happen.

And yea, another strong female character in the roster? Yes please

Rosalina
Satisfaction: 100%
Want: 100%

Palutena needs to happen now. We need all these awesome powerful ladies together. But yea, from the newcomers so far, Rosalina is my most likely main. At least if/until characters from my most wanted happen.
 

BluePikmin11

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Satisfaction: 70%
Ok im not that fond of her. I was REALLY shocked that she was the first newcomer. I thought it would one that's obvious like Little Mac.
Just goes to show to not follow the current "Ridley, K. Rool, Palutena will be revealed" logic. (I never followed it anyways, it always bothered me, it's going to be something different) I'm glad Sakurai showed something different.
 

Mario & Sonic Guy

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Satisfaction - 100%: Nice to see that Rosalina hasn't been given the Assist Trophy treatment. After what was shown in 3D World, I had bigger hopes for her. It's a shame, however, that Cranky Kong was left in the dust, despite being playable in Tropical Freeze.
 
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