Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Wanna represent the RPG's? Give me the RAAAAAAAWK

Why didn't I think of that?

Dark Samus: 3.75%
Maybe as a Samus clone without the Zero Suit. Dark Samus's chances to be an alt costume are significantly higher.

Want: 1%
I'm not really interested in a character who plays just like Samus.

Dr. Mario prediction: 6.10%

Nominate:
Kunio-Kun/Alex x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Dark Samus' chances: 3% - I think this is the most likely Metroid rep that isn't named Ridley. Having said that, if Ridley doesn't get in, then we likely won't get a Metroid rep at all.
Want: 50% - I'd prefer Ridley, but I could live with Dark Samus.

Dr. Mario prediction: 3.09%

Muddy Mole x5

 

[Louie G.]

Louie G. wins the extra noms today!

Yay! I won the extra noms on my most wanted newcomer! What a coincidence!

DARK SAMUS:

Chance: 4%
I think alt. costume is the best bet, but if Ridley doesn't happen I guess it's possible.

Want: 10%
She'd been an interesting semi-clone maybe, but still, a clone nonetheless.

Doc Prediction (Why is it that whoever I nominate is rated the next day?): 5.45%

Starfy x10

 

[jaytalks]

I spent too much time trying to come up with a witty thing to say about Pauline. Here's what I said in it's entirety with no cross outs, so my work wasn't for naught:
On chances: As soon as Mario found a girl he liked better, he replaced her, very callously. I think Sakurai feels the same way.
on want: I want her as much as current Mario does.

Dark Samus Metroid Prime:
Chances: 10%
Has the next best chance after Ridley. But still very low. Her chances are aided if there was another Metroid game by Retro Studios in the works, but there has been no announcement. This, plus the heavy Other M presence, lowers her chances. Her chances are greatly increased if she is referred to as Metroid Prime.
Want: 90%
Metroid Prime got me into the Metroid series so I think it would be fitting to see the character there. Additionally, I would love the series namesake to be a character. I would want a slight redesign in order to differentiate her and Samus.

Predicting the Metroid Prime comments to come:
Ridley will get in over her blah blah blah. Holes don't exist blah blah blah. I hate clones blah blah blah.

Dr. Mario predictions: My prescription for the Doctor: prepare for the worst outcome:
4.57%

Nominations:
Matthew (GS) x 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Dark Pit Link Gaia Samus:

Chance: 0%
Leave that for project M, Other M is where it's at for smash 4.

Want: 0%
I liked Prime, but dark Samus isn't interesting to me. I guess she's more important to the series than Omego Metroid, or Anthony Higgs, but if you think she's the most deserving metroid newcomer then you're kinda missing the giant purple space dragon in the room.


Doctor Mario: 6.8%
P:M is gonna make a few people rate him higher than he deserves.


Slime*5
(Wait, slime sure I haven't goo-ven him 15 noms! Ooze helping me? :D Thankgoo Keybladeguy!)

 

[loganhogan]

Dark Samus

Chance 20% I can see the possiblity of Dark Samus but that's only if he somehow excludes Ridley.
want 2% Sorry but it's only Ridley from the Metroid series that sparks a bigger higher interest for me.

Funky x5

Pauline (Donkey Kong)
1.72% chance
11.43% want

You know that picture Loganhogan posted at the top of Page 141? Well, you guys had Mario choose to save Peach. That pretty much sums up Pauline's day.

I'm actually glad she made it >1% she was almost Daisy's neighbor.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dr. Mario can have his own moveset guys, stop being extremely ignorant.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Dark Ridley Samus: 10%
Want: 0%
Doc: 20%

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Dark Samus - 15%

Mainly because she has is not nearly as important or recurring as Ridley, nor could her moveset be as unqiue and interesting as his. Dark Samus is also only relevant to the Prime games.

Want - 15%

I do not want her in before Ridley. Not at all. Even if Ridley was in, I still do not care much about Dark Samus being in.

Dr. Mario prediction - 28%

x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Dark Samus: 5% Last minute clone.
Want: 50% I can't stress how much more accepting I am of clones than most people.

Dr. Mario: 9%
Dr. Mario Music: Dr. Mario (Melee), Mario Paint (Warioware D.I.Y.), and Overworld (Super Mario Land)

x5 Excitebiker

 

[Gunla]

Metroid Prime? Dark Samus? Ideekay.

Chances:

Pros:
+Has next best chance.... after Ridley.
+-Works as an alternate costume. Nothing more.
Cons:
-Almost a literal, infernal waste of a character slot.
-Likely would be a clone
-Competition is Ridley
-Good Luck getting 3 Slots, Metroid!
-Timeline issues with Other M conflict with the Prime series as a whole.

Overall: How much nope is here? A lot. There's too much stacked against Prime, including the almighty Star Power Ridley. .6%.

Blah Blah, Ridley Ridley Ridley.

Want: She's likely to be a clone. And you guys know how much I don't like possible clones... Nor alternate versions of characters that aren't Link... 2%

Doctor Mario:



Get ready for my Doctor Puns.
The Doctor gets the worst prescription. PAIN. And likely Failure.
As an alternate Costume? Oh, likely.
As an actual full character? I'm predicting 2%- Veteran Status does not always help you in a game of limited slots for characters. The doctor is left to being an Alternate Costume.

Who gets my nominations today?

Prince Sable, because I said so in page 141! X5

 

[FinalStarmen]

Dr. Mario can have his own moveset guys, stop being extremely ignorant.

Just because Doctor Mario has the potentiality of uniqueness, it doesn't necessarily mean such potentiality will be exploited, even in the slightest; Doctor Mario is basically an easy-to-make semi-clone material for Mario (because Sakurai is now distancing himself from straight-forward clones). Besides, there really should be nothing wrong with having Doctor Mario as a semi-clone, because he will inevitably have a difference in certain variables from Mario (favorably in the doctor's case, as he is placed just a bit higher than Mario on Melee's tier list).

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Dr. Mario can have his own moveset guys, stop being extremely ignorant.

So can Falcon, Ganondorf, Luigi, Toon Link. Doesn't mean they will, or (imo in TL and Falcon's case, as well as Luigi except the poltergust and rocket) should.

 

[Gunla]

Dr. Mario can have his own moveset guys, stop being extremely ignorant.

The question is, will he?

 

[BluePikmin11]

The question is, will he?

If he does get revealed, then yes he'll get a revamped moveset. Perhaps his moveset can rely on different-colored pills that do different status effects.

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Dark Samus
Chance: 10%
Want: 55%

Prediction
Dr. Mario: 4.5%

Nomination
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[Sid-cada]

Dark Samus

Chance - 0.5% - The fact that the Prime games were so successful may give her a chance, but thus far we have only seen content from Other M, which brings her down a lot. She may also get in as a (semi-)clone, but I wonder if we'll get any this game.

Want - 60% - While I certainly don't want her before Ridley, if Ridley does manage to get in, I'd probably enjoy her inclusion. I honestly don't mind clones, if they offer a great way to separate themselves latter, and "feel" different enough from the person they clone. Surprisingly, Dark Samus passes for me. In fact, seeing a non-clone move set would actually be kinda interesting from her.


Dr. Mario Prediction - 4.5% - Being part of the Forbidden 7 may give him something of a boost, but the clone status hits him hard.

Nominations
Hades X3
Dark Matter X2

 

[Toxicroaker]

Dark Samus

Chance - 0.5% - The fact that the Prime games were so successful may give her a chance, but thus far we have only seen content from Other M, which brings her down a lot. She may also get in as a (semi-)clone, but I wonder if we'll get any this game.

Want - 60% - While I certainly don't want her before Ridley, if Ridley does manage to get in, I'd probably enjoy her inclusion. I honestly don't mind clones, if they offer a great way to separate themselves latter, and "feel" different enough from the person they clone. Surprisingly, Dark Samus passes for me. In fact, seeing a non-clone move set would actually be kinda interesting from her.


Dr. Mario Prediction - 4.5% - Being part of the Forbidden 7 may give him something of a boost, but the clone status hits him hard.

Nominations
Hades X3
Dark Matter X2

Toon Link confirmed this already. Unless you were meaning newcomers.

 

[Starcutter]

Dark samus: 14%
Want 40%

Dr. Mario: 5%

Noms:
Mona x3
eevee
pichu

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 10%
Want: 85%

Dr. Mario: 1.25%

RHYTHM HEAVEN REP X5 OH GOD IT'S COMING
GLACIOTT YOU CAN VOTE FOR SOMETHING ELSE

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Dark Samus: 0.1% - Gonna be a trophy/costume color swap if anything at all.
WANT: 0%. Thank You, Don't Come Again.

Dr. Mario - 2%. Will be alt costume/trophy.

Nominations:
Nintendog x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Toon Link confirmed this already. Unless you were meaning newcomers.

Oh, err...yes, I was referring to newcomers.

... I just write what I think, OK?! I come here with no planning and... ugh, I should have clarified.

Number of times I made a fool of myself on the thread: twice, three time if you count the day I discovered I received extra nominations the day before. Why must I be so accident prone here...

 

[XenothiumX]

Dark Samus
Likelihood: 1%
maybe a palette swap for Samus?

Want: 0%

Dr. Mario
Likelihood: 5%
If the Devs need a last minuet character, I suppose they might choose Dr. Mario

Want: 0%
I would like to see him as Mario's palette swap

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

the other person for Metroid that is not named ridley - 0.015%
ya that might be a too little of a score, but let us remember that it is basically ridley or bust, not only for this board but for basically a large part of the internet, that will immediately make her(he?) chances down, but the reason why they are almost nonexistent is because of alt. costumes being confirmed, that immediately lowers the chances of all characters that look like original characters down to a scale that is very, very, small, since dark samus is basically samus but a little different, she'll most likely end up an alt. custom.
want - 45%
I'm mostly indifferent, but it will feel a little lackluster because of ridley missing in a spot he deserves.
- 1.48%
I don't know about others, but seeing alt. costumes confirmed, like dark samus makes his chances get shot down
nominations:
dark pitX1
RoyX4

 

[Erimir]

I missed yesterday. That's what I get for having to do school stuff all day. Fortunately, it wasn't that exciting. In case anyone was wondering, here's the quick version of my thoughts...

Pauline
Chance: 0.2%
Want: 0%

She's a barely remembered footnote. A character that did literally nothing but be a damsel in distress, and whose latest appearance was in Mario vs. Donkey Kong 2. She's only been in games featuring both Mario and DK, and they didn't even bother putting her in the first Mario vs. DK game. Why put her in? They'd have to make up a moveset wholesale. I'm all in favor of adding more female characters, but Pauline would be really scraping the bottom of the barrel. Better choices for female characters: Palutena, Tetra, Impa, Dixie Kong, Rosalina, Birdo, Midna, Krystal, Lyn, Lucina, Anna, Robin/Avatar, Lip, Medusa, Ashley, Mona, Captain Syrup, Dark Samus, Mother Brain, (Donbe and) Hikari, Akari Hayami and even Daisy.

Dark Samus/Metroid Prime/Phaaze

Popularity: Well, Metroid Prime is over, there's been another Metroid game since then, and MP3 was several years ago now. Like all Metroid reps, she suffers in that in Japan only Metroid and Super Metroid were actually that popular. (Super Metroid actually sold better in Japan than in the US).

Relevancy: She's the main villain from the Metroid Prime trilogy, a high-selling and critically acclaimed series. But she's probably not coming back.

Design: There are two directions to take here. One is to make her a Samus clone. The other is to incorporate some of her moves from her boss fights, with only a little bit of copying. Final Smash would obviously have to be different either way. If Sakurai gets nervous about not having enough newcomers, he may choose to add some clones since they're a lot less work... in that case, Dark Samus's chances would be boosted a little bit.

Roster and Competition: Sylux really hurts her chances It's Ridley. We all know it's Ridley. The only way she has a chance is if Sakurai decides that he can't include Ridley this time either. Even then he might just shaft Metroid yet again. There's a real possibility of Ridley not getting in, and also of Metroid getting nothing. But operating on the assumption that Metroid does get a newcomer, it's almost certainly Ridley. He's the only character that really looms large over the series.

Model notes: My model predicts 1.66 slots and 2.22 move sets... which is a little strange. I take that to mean Metroid probably deserves another slot, but maybe not as much as you'd think since ZSS is a separate move set. I'd boost the chances for Metroid a little higher due to the very high demand for Ridley, so I'd go on the high end of that. But that's pretty much all Ridley, not a lot of room for Dark Samus.

Alternate possibilities: She could be an alternate costume. Which would mean making a Dark Zero Suit Samus too, actually, although that could just be a palette swap. All she requires is a simple re-skinning, maybe some different color effects on the missiles and such, but she's even easier than the male Wii Fit Trainer since her proportions are the same. To be honest though, it would feel more appropriate for her to get true versions of the Light Suit, Dark Suit, Fusion Suit, etc. Especially the Light Suit, I love that one.

Dark Samus chances: 2%
If Ridley doesn't get in, and Metroid does get a newcomer, Dark Samus has very good chances. That scenario just isn't very likely. It's very very likely we'll get Ridley or nothing.

Dark Samus want: 20%
I want Metroid to get another rep, but I want it to be Ridley. Dark Samus probably means no Ridley. But if we're talking about Ridley's already in, do I want her... then I'm mostly indifferent.

Dr Mario prediction: 5%
I dunno what people think.

But here are the two tracks that have to be included, the originals: NES Fever and Chill
And here's a remix: virt - Funky Pills

Nominations:
Pichu x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Oh, err...yes, I was referring to newcomers.

... I just write what I think, OK?! I come here with no planning and... ugh, I should have clarified.

Number of times I made a fool of myself on the thread: twice, three time if you count the day I discovered I received extra nominations the day before. Why must I be so accident prone here...

What was the first one? If you don't want to say than you don't have to. If you were the one that put up the porn on accident than just leave a like

 

[Sid-cada]

What was the first one? If you don't want to say than you don't have to. If you were the one that put up the porn on accident than just leave a like

I based my chance score for Sonic to be slightly higher than Solid Snake's... even though we didn't rate Snake yet... despite me double checking on the first post...

Yeah, I don't believe it either.

I have made every conceivable mistake here, short of not posting or giving a chance percentage (want is a maybe). I've forgotten to make score predictions, give votes, had to re-word posts, do the rerated characters, and even forgot do the concepts despite having less than 10 of them at this point. Fortunately, I've caught myself many times and just edited them in minuets after I post. That Snake thing was the only thing I didn't catch (until today, that is).

 

[Groose]

I based my chance score for Sonic to be slightly higher than Solid Snake's... even though we didn't rate Snake yet... despite me double checking on the first post...

Yeah, I don't believe it either.

I have made every conceivable mistake here, short of not posting or giving a chance percentage (want is a maybe). I've forgotten to make score predictions, give votes, had to re-word posts, do the rerated characters, and even forgot do the concepts despite having less than 10 of them at this point. Fortunately, I've caught myself many times and just edited them in minuets after I post. That Snake thing was the only thing I didn't catch (until today, that is).

Relax. I just take what you give me; it's not like I'm going to get angry if you forget something or other. Besides, I've made worse mistakes---like that time I "accidentally" deleted Gaston off of the nomination list. Oopsies.

 

[Deleted member]

Relax. I just take what you give me; it's not like I'm going to get angry if you forget something or other. Besides, I've made worse mistakes---like that time I "accidentally" deleted Gaston off of the nomination list. Oopsies.

Gaston will forever be dubbed as the only character that has been nominated that we will never rate. (In all seriousness, how the heck did he get a nomination?)

 

[LoneKonWolf]

groose's profile pic:
and here is the evolving Groose in the wild, starting all the way from a young pup, he is just an ordinary Groose, but after a while of growing and evolving he gains some personality and evolves into the godotroose, the Groose form of godot, but then the Groose takes on a weird experimental phase, showing all sorts of cosplay to express his ideas, but then the Groose finally matures now, where he has became the groosniater, where he walks around on the boards with his head high and his shades shiny, but the Groose isn't done evolving yet, please come to next weeks episode to learn more about the evolving Groose in its natural habitat next, time on the "forms documentary"
this is your host "Wolf" signing off!
(sorry Groose, but I had to make some sort of comment to your evolving avatar's)

 

[Sid-cada]

Relax. I just take what you give me; it's not like I'm going to get angry if you forget something or other. Besides, I've made worse mistakes---like that time I "accidentally" deleted Gaston off of the nomination list. Oopsies.

I know that you won't get upset or anything if I forget something, but I still want it complete (or whatever).

I just can't help but find it stupid when I make a mistake, as I have rated every time we have had a character to the point I feel it should be routine. I'll admit that I exaggerate my feelings a little when someone else points it out, (to make it funny, of course. It's important to laugh at yourself, right?) but if I manage to catch it, I'm just a little annoyed.

 

[SmashShadow]

Dark Samus: 5%
Other m Design doesn't have a Dark Samus counterpart. I don't think they would add 3 metroid reps anytime soon and even if Ridley isn't chosen, she still would only have at best a 20% chance.

Want: 35% Probably turn out as a semi-clone. I would prefer an assist trophy of her.

Doc: 1% Very unlikely IMO.
Want: 0% Nope.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Gaston will forever be dubbed as the only character that has been nominated that we will never rate. (In all seriousness, how the heck did he get a nomination?)

No one gets inexplicable votes like Gaston.

Chance: 8%
Dark Samus could easily be a last minute clone should Sakurai want one. Yes I'm aware she and Samus fight totally differently in the Prime games, but are you seriously telling me it's not the more likely scenario for her?
Dark Samus probably gets a fair amount of votes, but compared to Ridley it's probably a drop in an ocean.

Want: 23%
Pretty indifferent towards most Metroid newcomers, but generally I hate 'Dark' versions of any character, no matter how fleshed out they are. I'll **** all over Shadow the Hedgehog and Dark Pit too I assure you, I'm just not a fan of the lazy "protagonist character but darker and edgier" archetype.

Dr. Mario prediction: 4.2% (Mario week continues?!)
It's gonna be low as a character in and of himself. People are far more forgiving of him as an alt outfit, but I think I've seen a total of five people who want him as a separate character.

Nominations:
5 X Substantial Yoshi Changes (Yarn, Babies, etc)

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Gaston will forever be dubbed as the only character that has been nominated that we will never rate. (In all seriousness, how the heck did he get a nomination?)

Most likely because of an old Gaston joke thread that was made months ago and was locked not long afterwards.

WARNING: You may find some of the replies to the thread disturbing.

http://smashboards.com/threads/gaston-for-ssb4.336909/

 

[Deleted member]

No one gets inexplicable votes like Gaston.

I bet that this was his reaction when his votes got removed:

Most likely because of an old Gaston joke thread that was made months ago and was locked not long afterwards.

WARNING: You may find some of the replies to the thread disturbing.

http://smashboards.com/threads/gaston-for-ssb4.336909/

Oh dear lord. I stopped after a few posts.

 

[FalKoopa]

Dark Samus:
Likelihood: 8%
I would have given her a higher rating if Smash 4 wasn't focused so exclusively on Other M.

Want: 0%
It's Ridley or bust. I'm not a Metroid fan, and Ridley (and to a small extent Higgs) are the only Metroid characters that pique my interest.

Dr. Mario (finally!) prediction: 5%
Let's see how this turns out.

Looks like I've run out of characters to nominate.... Roy x 5

 

[Zigzagar]

Dark Samus 55%
Despite SSB4 currently emphasizing Other M, I do think M: P3 is still relevant

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dark Samus:

Chance: 4% - Dark Samus is another one of those character that missed its chance in Brawl. Dark Samus was hot stuff when the Prime series was running, but since it ended 6 years ago Dark Samus hasn't had any kind of importance or relevance since, which is as expected. Dark Samus was in two games only, and not even in the first and most critically acclaimed title of the series, since it was only in the Metroid Prime form by then. Pretty much all demand for Dark Samus has also faded away, it's no longer a popular character either. Speaking of popular characters, Dark Samus is being stomped by Ridley in all aspects. It's still far ahead of characters like Adam, Anthony and the Hunters though.

Dark Samus' only chance of getting in is as a last minute semi-clone, it's not suggested or important enough to outprioritize pretty much any other potential newcomer from any other series, and even then it's outprioritized by Dixie Kong and Toon Zelda in the semi-clone category. I just don't see it happening, Dark Samus has lost all luster and is far past its prime.

Want: 20% - While Dark Samus is cool and all, I don't really have any attachment to the two games it was featured in since they were pretty sub-par. I like Dark Samus' powers and all, but the character loses all appeal if made into a semi-clone, which is the only way I believe it can make it. Still, Dark Samus is kind of cool, and is a lot better than any Federation member or the Hunters, but nothing in comparison to Ridley.

Dr. Mario Prediction: 6% - A full-fledged character? No way. An alt costume? Very possible.

Nominations:
5x Brawl Pokémon and Mewtwo

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chances: 1%. Um, no
Want: 0%. If we were to get a third Metroid rep (assuming ZSS is still in Smash 4, which there's no reason to assume won't be the case) I'd rather it be someone people actually give a **** about than a "dark clone." The only reason Dark Samus is even being suggested is because of Ridley getting the boss treatment in Brawl. Even speaking as an anti-Ridley supporter I'd much rather take him and whatever gripes I may have with his Smash representation than Dark Samus.

Dr Mario prediction: 5%. "He was intended for Brawl!" will boost his chances at least a little bit.

Ganon X5

 

[Tepig2000]

Chances: 0,5%
Want: 0%. I would rather have Ridley. He is more important to Metroid, he is cool, and he would not be a clone. Yes I know Dark Samus can be made different from Samus, but everyone here knows Sakurai. He would make her a clone.

Nominations: Ballon Fighter X5