Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[LoneKonWolf]

sheik - 99.98%
she has been a stay since melee, she was in one of the most important games to Nintendo, she makes Zelda more diverse, and there is really no one to take her spot, I can't see her leaving the roster.(the only reason I didn't give a 100, is because its not certain )
want - 90%
not one character I even use, but I like her in the game, she doesn't need to leave.
tetra/Toon Zelda - 23.67%
I do feel that ever since Toon link's reveal, her chances has raised, but that doesn't count for the need of a Zelda newcomer, or the chances of actually getting one either
want - 40%
I do like tetra's design a lot, but I'll be disappointed where Zelda gets a newcomer, where another newcomer got flushed down off his seat.
Victini - 1.35%
past Unova, not mascot, no importance,
nominations: brawl pokemon+mewtwo

 

[LoneKonWolf]

um Groose I did a little looking around on the posts I missed the other day, and I found this

Tomorrow... Fawful will be sprinkling rage dressing upon the salad of this game. Please predict how effective his mustard of doom will be on tomorrow's voters. A winner is Lonekonwolf, who wins TEN extra nominations for becoming the fifth person to guess the score on the dot. Gratz!

A winner is Lonekonwolf, who wins TEN extra nominations for becoming the fifth person to guess the score on the dot. Gratz!

edit:whoops double post

 

[Louie G.]

SHEIK:
Chance: 100%
No way she's going anywhere.

Want: 100%
I'm not a Sheik main or anything, but I don't agree with characters that have gotten the chance to become veterans being cut.

TOON ZELDA/TETRA

Chance: 45%
Eh, it's a tough call, it really depends on if Sakurai decides that we need a new Zelda character...

Want: 25%
Which I don't think we do. We have Toon Link to rep the Toon games and a kid Link, Toon Zelda is a bit excessive. The reason I kind of want her is because Toon Link is so great, so I have no doubt that Too Zelda would be great as well. But there are a few more unique Zelda characters that I would like to see first. COUGHTingleCOUGH

VICTINI PREDICTION: 4.25%
It would have been higher about a year ago, but now I see Gen 5 faring similarly to Gen 3. No character representation is needed.

NOMS:
Palutena x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Sheik want: 80%
Likelihood: 95%

Toon Zelda/Tetra want: 30%
Likelihood: 15%

Victini: 3.35%

Rhythm Heaven Rep x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sheik chance: 95%
Sheik want: 50%
Toon Zelda chance 40%
Toon Zelda want: 20%
Victini Prediction: 6.9%
Nominations: x5 Dr. Kawashima

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Sheik: 100%
I see no reason as to why she would be removed.

Want: 98%
I see no reason as to why I would want to see Sheik removed, except maybe for the fact that I'm not good at playing as her.

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 55%
Probably our best chance for a Zelda newcomer.

Want: 90%
Transforming pirates are always cool.

Victini prediction: 0.66%

Nominate:
Lucina x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Sheik:

Chance: 99.99%
I did enough science not to give 100%, but otherwise...

Want: 98%
Honestly I'd prefer Zelda to be a decent character, and if they'd have to reclaim her down-B for that I'd be happy to loose sheik... however Project M has shown that such an act isn't necessary (even though I'm not actually a big fan of how they handled her in that... Din's Fire always felt too small in real smash... it feels smaller in M; I guess I just want a huge lingering flaming explosion like the spell it's actually based on.. basically a smaller SMART bomb) so Sheik should stay, and I don't want to loose the switch option if it can be helped.


Toon Zelda/Tetra:

Chance: 47%
Pokémon should get a fifth (with Mewtwo) and has enough going on for a sixth if wanted, Mario should get at least a fifth to be joint first (Bowser Jr/Waluigi/Peach's Neutral-B) and DK may get a 3rd and 4th... Zelda is, like those, a console mover, it would only make sense to give a 5th character to the franchise if the others get such a boost, and sadly Tingle seems a fairly unlikely choice. With Toon Link getting revealed so early, and Toon Zelda being a clone (even if Tetra won't be) I see her as the most likely choice for a fifth Zelda slot... however... characters are more limited this time around, even semi-clones, and as such I do only see a 50/50 on a new Zelda character, with the overwhelming majority of the chance going to Toon Zelda.

Want: 98%
I want a decent Zelda, and if we have to have a Toon version to get it (like Toon Link last time) then I'm game!


Victini: 5%
Because 5 is V in roman numerals, and I honestly have no clue.


Tails*4
Fatal Frame Representation*1 (is it possible to include ATs and such? or to be honest normal Trophies are pretty unlikely...)

 

[Xenigma]

Zelda day!

Sheik - 100%
She'll be in, no real worries here. Chances of her being replaced by Impa are virtually nonexistant, and she's too well liked to not appear.
Want - 75% - Can't play her, but I like her quite a bit anyway.

Tetra/Toon Zelda - 60%
I've believed T/TZ is the most likely Zelda newcomer for a while, but now that Toon Link has been revealed so early? Even if it was basically mandated by Wind Waker HD's release, that's a pretty big boost to her chances. There's still the edge case where we get one or the other, or even Toon Sheik somehow, but given how important Tetra/Toon Zelda has been in the past decade and the fact that Toon Zelda was in the forbidden seven, I have to believe this is the most likely Zelda newcomer by a big margin at this point.
Want - 100% - Would be a fantastic inclusion, even if Toon Zelda was a semi-clone.

Victini Prediction - 0.4%
This is what Pokeballs are for, folks!

Nominations
Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Character:
Sheik
Chance: 95%
There is not much to say.
Want: 95%
One of my favourite veterans for her design and moveset.

Rerate:
Tetra / Toon Zelda
Chance: 15%
There is much competition.
Want: 5%
Not a fan of characters with identical concepts.

Prediction:
Victini: 3.33%
Ehhhh.... I don´t know there are so many options for Pokemon that is not even funny.

Nomination:
Donbe and Hikari x 5.

.n_n.

 

[SmashShadow]

Sheik: 90%
Want: 70% While I do enjoy her inclusion, I don't enjoy her being attached to Zelda.

Tetra/Toon Zelda
Chance: 28%
Want: 0% Nope. This would be different if it was just Tetra.

Victini: 6%

 

[Starcutter]

sheik: 90%
Want: 90%

Toon zelda: 45%
Want: 30% but 80% for a pirate, tetra. I guess you could say like 65%

Victini: 2.3%

Nomination
Grovyle (Pokemon mystery dungeon 2) x2
Standalone Red concept x3

 

[PK_Wonder]

Sheik: 99.98%
Tetra/Toon Zelda: 31%

predict Victini: 9.5%

nominate Travis Touchdown x5

 

[DarkKry4]

Sheik

Chance - 97%
i will be shocked if Sheik gets cut....
Want - 50%



Toon Zelda/Tetra

Chance - 35%
she does seem a bit likely. just a bit.
Want - 50%



Victini - 6.5%

x5 Pauline

 

[jaytalks]

Sheik
99.99999999999999999%
Likelihood: I really don't like to give out a 100%. So this is all you get Sheik.
Sheik is a part of Zelda's moveset. That's why she gets in. All of Zelda's moves are OoT magic, including Sheik. There's no reason not to include her, since Sakurai can easily redesign (or perhaps use an unused redesign) to make Sheik fit whatever Zelda he chooses to put in the game. I'm pulling for OoT Zelda. I think it would be hilarious to have the current TP (with SS flourishes) Link with an OoT Zelda. To top it off, if I had my pick I would make it a ALTTP Ganon. That way every part of the timeline is represented.

Want:
100%
There's no replacement for the best. Sorry Impa.

Prediction:
Victini gets 1.44%

Nominations:
We still gotta plenty of viable characters to rate in my opinion.
Matthew (Golden Sun) x 10

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I've been waiting for this day...

Sheik - 100%

I honestly can't see Sheik leaving at this point.

Want - 100%

Though I am a Sheik main, I'm not THAT fond of him/her...nevertheless I would be upset to see Sheik depart from the Smash series.

Toon Zelda/Tetra - 75%

I honestly feel a bit confident about her inclusion this time around. Her only competition is Tingle and Impa, neither of which pose too much of a threat although none of the canidates for a Zelda newcomer have too much going for them. But, seeing as how we have Toon Link, were originally going to have Toon Zelda and either Tetra or a Toon Sheik in Brawl, we might actually see in her Smash this time. Relevance isn't an issue for her either, given her big roles in Spirit Tracks and Wind Waker, the latter of which has recently been remade and remastered. I'm not saying I think she's a shoo-in, but I feel as though her chances are fairly likely this time.

Want - 100%

One of my most wanted newcomers, as you can tell by my signature. I'm a huge Zelda fan, espescially the cel-shaded Wind Waker and Spirit Tracks, the former of which was a good part of my childhood.

x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Glaciacott]

Sheik
Chance - 98%
Bottom line is, I think Sheik is going to make it. The main threat to be considered at this point is if the team uses Skyward Sword Zelda, but given how Toon Sheik of all things was possibly considered by Sakurai, I get the impression he gives no care to Zelda consistency and will just make a Sheik to go along with whatever Zelda is in the game.

Want - 50%
I really don't care about Sheik. If using Zelda, I always prefer to just use Zelda, even with Sheik being all sorts of popular in Melee. I would be fine with Sheik leaving, just don't see it happening.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance - 66%
Toon Link being confirmed so early makes me far more optimistic about this character. More than anything the Tetra side of things given just how much of a character she is in Wind Waker HD. The real question is if we'll get another Zelda character. If we do, It should definitely be Tetra.

Want - 100%
Again, I don't care about a Toon Zelda, but I care a lot about Tetra. If included, I hope the main focus is on Tetra because that'd be the character I want to play as.
Now, if Sakurai does the unthinkable and makes a Toon Zelda with a Toon Sheik transformation, my respect for his decisions will take a tremendous dive. I seriously, seriously hope Toon Sheik is never a thing.

Prediction
Victini 1.36%
I forgot how much I gave the likes of Sylveon. Victini should get the same, assuming there's any consistency in people's percentages/beliefs.

Nominations
x5 Sheriff

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Sheik chance=95%

Sheik want=34% I want a generic Sheikah moveset with costumes of the different characters.

Toon Zelda/Tetra chance=10% I think a lone Toon Zelda is more likely, but still unlikely. Toon Link being in Smash 4 lowers the chances of any Zelda newcomer. Even if it raises the chances of Toon Zelda or Tetra, they still have a net loss in chance from his reveal.

Toon Zelda/Tetra want=0% I don't want a clone of Zelda.

Nominate=5x Ray

 

[colder_than_ice]

Sheik
Chance: 90% - Self explanatory.
Want: 79% - Zelda won't be the same without her.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 50% - She's been considered for Brawl, but I still don't see her as a guarantee.
Want: 19% - I'd rather have Ghost Zelda from Spirit tracks.

Victini prediction: 1%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Sheik

Chance - 99.99% - There is a very, very, very mild chance that she won't make it in. That chance exists, but it is so microscopic we might as well just say she's in.

Want - 100% - No cuts extend to transformations, dude.


Toon Zelda and Tetra

Chance - 20% - Not too certain what to think about these two. They're the prime candidate to be the next Zelda characters, but I doubt we will receive any new Zelda characters in the first place. I'm also not really expecting any more transformation characters introduced.

Want - 75% - Tetra is a character that I want, but I'd rather not have her attached to Zelda, so points lost there.


Victini Prediction - 2.55% - Maybe he still has some supporters, but he doesn't look all that likely now.


Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Toxicroaker]

Sheik: 98%
Want: 100% (eat that impa, you stupid you)

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 30% Toon Link's early revile might add up to something.
Want: 65% Toon Zelda 80% Tetra 20%

Victini: 3.01%

x5 Excitebiker

 

[Smasher 101]

Sheik's chances: 99% - Would be really surprised if she got cut.
Want: 100% - Yep.

Toon Zelda/Tetra's chances: 15% - I honestly doubt that we'll get another Zelda character. If we do though, she does have the best chance.
Want: 25% - Toon Zelda gets a 0%, while Tetra gets a 50%.

Victini prediction: 2.18%

Ray x5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Wow the ignorance...

 

[LoneKonWolf]

um
. . .
. . .
what ignorance?

 

[Diddy Kong]

Everyone thinking Sheik is all but confirmed while she has quite a decent shot of being thrown out.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Everyone thinking Sheik is all but confirmed while she has quite a decent shot of being thrown out.

um . . . . what shot, mate?
what does sheik have against her, that might make her get thrown out?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Everyone thinking Sheik is all but confirmed while she has quite a decent shot of being thrown out.

Does Sakurai love Impa?
That's the only remaining question.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Oh God, here we go...

 

[SchAlternate]

And I somehow managed to completely miss a day that lasted three. Way to go, me.

 

[Deleted member]

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Oh God, here we go...

why?
does diddy Kong, usually downgrade sheik?

 

[SchAlternate]

why?
does diddy Kong, usually downgrade sheik?

In favor of Impa, yes.

 

[Curious Villager]

why?
does diddy Kong, usually downgrade sheik?

Let's just say he isn't a huge fan of Sheik staying in smash because he'd rather have Impa.

Edit. Just got Sheikha'd...

 

[Deleted member]

why?
does diddy Kong, usually downgrade sheik?

Go back to the day where Impa got rated. Things got really ugly.

 

[SchAlternate]

Go back to the day where Impa got rated. Things got really ugly.

Please don't remind me about that... thanks...

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Please don't remind me about that... thanks...

most of those were . . . . . . disturbing "shiver"

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Sheik:

Chance: 99% - Relevance up the butt, it should be quite apparent that it matters none by now, else she wouldn't even have been in Brawl. Sheik is coming back. Sakurai also hates cutting characters, so he won't just cut Sheik just to get some rarely requested Impa in. If Sheik isn't in, by a 1% chance, she won't be replaced, it'll be because of big time restrictions and Zelda would be a standalone character then, which is of course incredibly unlikely too.

Want: 100% - Because Sheik is awesome.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:

Chance: 45% - Much like Dixie Kong, I consider this character a last minute clone addition. She could make it, but I'm leaning a tad bit towards not, just a gut feeling.

Want: 15% - Not really a character I'd be super hyped for.

Victini Prediction - 0,5%

Nominations:
5x Palutena

 

[TumblrFamous]

Groose, if I may, I would like to talk about Impa and Sheik's chances.

First off, I'm betting we will not see any newcomer for Zelda. I predict it will just be the original 5 we had in Brawl (Sheik included). However, there are characters who are somewhat likely to appear. I fully believe if we see a Zelda newcomer, it will be Toon Zelda/Tetra, but that is beside the point. Let's talk about Impa.

First, her pros. She's a major, recurring, popular character in Zelda. She has made appearances all over Zelda history, usually in the role of a caretaker. OoT didn't shed too much light on her, she was a minor yet distinct character. But in SS, that's when she soared to popularity. Being one of the major characters, she does have quite a bit of a shot.

Now, there are some beliefs that she should replace Sheik. First of all, why? What difference would it make if she was there instead of Sheik? It'd just be a copy and paste of Sheik, which I personally resent. And plus, how would that work? I mean, I know how, mechanically, it would work, but how does it make sense. The characters with transformations/switching off we've seen make sense. Zelda is Sheik's counterpart, Zero Suit Samus is Samus without the Power Suit, and the Pokemon Trainer has his three Pokemon he alternates as if in a real battle. With Impa, that doesn't make any sense. She's major enough to be her own character, and reducing her to a transformation would make no sense. Zelda is Zelda, her whole character embodies herself in all her appearances, not others. Impa is Impa. She is not a transformation of Zelda.

Many people also say that Sheik is no longer relevant to the Zelda series anymore, therefore, should not be in Smash. Well, that makes no sense. The Zelda we have now does not represent, say, just TP, or just OoT, or just SS. Our Zelda represents all games she has appeared in. She has and will most likely retain her TP look. Her magical powers, the powers from the Goddesses, originated in OoT, and further make sense from SS, where we are able to confirm she is part-divine. And she has Sheik, the strange Sheikah that played a major role in OoT. Zelda represents all of the Zeldas. Not to mention OoT 3D, which makes Sheik relevant again.

So there. I have evidence that Sheik is part of Zelda, and something that should not be taken. Impa could be her own slot, but that would be redundant. Most people argue: "Well, she can get in as her own separate character, but take Sheik's moveset". Well, would we have really gotten a new unique character? Why would she take Sheik's moveset? That makes little to no sense.

So bam. Anyone who wishes to strike me down, please do so.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Impa has more potential than just take Sheik's moveset.

Ah well, too many ****ing misconceptions about this arguement. Nobody ever adresses all full points and I'm at a point of no longer wanting to repeat everything I already said.

I feel Sheik is redundant. Why base Zelda on Ocarina of Time alone? Powers from Ocarina of Time, model from Twilight Princess, Sheik transformation. That's what most want, as that's what we got in Brawl. Why even be so attached to this gimmick when hardly anyone plays as BOTH Zelda and Sheik? The gimmicks of say, Pokémon Trainer did this concept much better. And Samus / Zero Suit Samus are basically just two different characters altogheter.

Sheik is only a nod to Ocarina of Time, and nothing more. With a totally made up moveset, only to fill in the gaps of (extremely apperant) weaknesses of the character design of Zelda. Really, there's so much wrong with this all, yet you guys just want the same thing all over again. Alright, fine. Know one thing: Sheik, the one-off disguise of Zelda in 1 game with no actual abilities of her own besides playing the harp and teleport will forever overshadow the MAIN character Zelda.

And it will just look weirder and weirder as the Smash series continue, and Sheik is known by basically none of the newer generations as Nintendo can't port Ocarina of Time forever (or can they..?). Meanwhile this 'Sheik' is still coupled to Zelda, who's the namesake of a well-running series, and Link and Zelda themselves probably look more like by-then recent models / appearances.



Doesn't make any sence to me at all. Especially considering that Sheik was actually drafted for in the development of Twilight Princess, so there's still a legitimate reason to keep her instead of adding a newcomer with that. But now, not so much. Sheik never made it to TP, or any future titles. Impa appeared in Skyward Sword after, while Sheik was still absent.

Impa at least is re-occuring, is a series veteran, has moveset potential of her canon-apperance in Skyward Sword and would serve as a newcomer. A totally reworked Sheik, which borrows some old traits, perhaps a FEW moves but mostly serve as her own character. And it would finally free up Zelda from a horrible mechanic.

Toon Sheik can forever **** herself, I don't buy ANYTHING from these people saying 'Oh Sakurai wanted to make a Toon Sheik, HE MUST LUB SHEIK SO MUCH', there's no proof of anything and judging from the Zelda trophies in Brawl, Sakurai knew of Tetra. There's also the fact that Roy in Melee for example was just codenamed as 'emblem'.

Ratings:
Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

 

[the8thark]

Zelda/Sheik
Want 50%, Likelihood 50%

Zelda/Tetra
Want 50%, Likelihood 50%

Twilight Princess Zelda
Want 85%, Likelihood 0%

Sheik would be the better character because of the obvious move set. But given how WWHD was just released, Tetra would be the more obvious choice. The hard part with Tetra is coming up with a good move set and also how to make the transformation between Zelda/Tetra plausible. It made sense with Sheik as Zelda turned herself into that. In WW, it was the King who turned Tetra to and from the Zelda form. But since it is SSB I'm sure you could work something out.

I voted both at 50/50 because I don't care which makes it into the game. I'd really like a Twilight Princess Zelda, as she looked cool. But with no real transformation like Ocarina or WW, it's a low chance to make it.
On that note a Twilight Princess Link with a wolf form would be pretty cool.

 

[XenothiumX]

Sheik
Likelihood: 100%

Want: 100%

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Likelihood: 10%
I don't see Zelda getting any new reps, especially if the Mario and Pokemon series end up with less than 5 reps, although I do question why she was considered for the forbidden 7... maybe a last minute addition character?

Want: 7.5%
among characters that might end up as last minute clone, she's one I wouldn't want to see.

Victini
Prediction: 1.1%

Nominations:
Slippy x5