Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Toxicroaker]

Music for Fawful: Fawful is There, Fawful's Evil Plan, Cavi Cape, Cacklette's Theme, an Fawful an Cackletta

 

[colder_than_ice]

Rhythm Monkey
Chance: 11% - I know nothing about the franchise, so I might as well give him a generous rating.
Want: 5% - We already have Monkeys in Smash: Donkey and Diddy.

No Cuts
Chance: 10% - Snakes extremely unlikely to come back, giving Konami's attitude toward Nintendo.
Want: 100% - Of course, why would anyone want cuts?

Fawful prediction: 7%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

But imagine all the work that would go into making that ability work in Smash. It'd be massive... the time they spend doing Illusion "right" could be used to make SEVERAL simpler characters. I wouldn't horribly mind it if he got in and it worked well, but...

So you don't want to a really unique character? Besides they have lots of weeks to plan Zoroark's moveset if he is ever considered.

 

[SonicMario]

No Cuts
Chance: 50%
I say this only because I think no Veteran or Newcomer from Brawl is a guaranteed cut. Not even Snake. But Sakurai has warned that he might not be able to bring everyone back. Though some people have noted he may also be talking about the characters that were in Melee that weren't in Brawl as well.

Want: 100%
I think most would be about content if no one was cut from Brawl and we still got about 9-10 newcomers. I certainly would be. I see no less then 3 cuts if there are cuts however. And who's not to say we might end up with a patch or DLC that comes with the characters that just couldn't be finished for release in time?

 

[Cheezey Bites]

So you don't want to a really unique character? Besides they have lots of weeks to plan Zoroark's moveset if he is ever considered.

He'd be unique, but I don't think he'd be fun. The Illusion mechanic really only works first turn for Zoroark, and in smash terms that means they're doing a shed tonne of work for maybe 5-10 seconds of game play to trick the opponent... after which zoroark is just a normal character with too much work done on him.

 

[BluePikmin11]

He'd be unique, but I don't think he'd be fun. The Illusion mechanic really only works first turn for Zoroark, and in smash terms that means they're doing a shed tonne of work for maybe 5-10 seconds of game play to trick the opponent... after which zoroark is just a normal character with too much work done on him.

It could work like Naruto, where he clones himself to trick the opponent.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I... umm... I guess that could work but it doesn't really have anything to do with Zoroark... He creates an illusion to make himself look like something else..

 

[Morbi]

No-Cuts:
Chances: 30% without using the horrible excuse of being a veteran, characters such as Jigglypuff and Snake are getting pretty hard to justify.
.

Yeah, you are right, being a part of the Smash franchise for 15 years (by the end of the year) is irrelevant. It is a horrible excuse. It isn't like a good portion of the fan-base mained Jigglypuff or anything like that (1/12 chance). It isn't like she was in the lime light during Melee (she was a S tier). She isn't just some random veteran, she is one of THE veterans that is THE most significant to Smash. She is more important than Ness, that is certain. She only really gets beat out to juggernauts, being part of the Pokemon franchise already makes her more popular than most of the characters in the game like Fire Emblem or Pikmin... probably even Star Fox. I think we thoroughly established her importance to Smash.

On the development side of things, she is one of the easiest characters to develop. Not only does being a 3 time veteran since the beginning make her easier to implement, but she wouldn't be too difficult in the first place. There are some things that might make her a little more difficult than necessary such as her sleep ability, floatiness, rest, and shield popping that are unique to her. It doesn't tack on that much extra development time though. Not to mention it makes her one of the MOST unique characters in the game. Let us not even talk about her individual final smash. She doesn't copy a template like OVER 3/4 of the roster. She doesn't transform, she doesn't spark a cutscene, she doesn't shoot a beam, she doesn't summon anything. This only adds to her beautiful and original design.

This is just a minor thing that I left out of the above paragraph because it isn't significant. She was one of the only characters in the game to get a costume swap as opposed to a pallet swap. The other is Pikachu. One might count Wario, but it is more like 2 different designs full of pallet swaps.

Now that we have established how unique and fun she is (and what she offers to a roster of bland Nintendo characters) along with her popularity and significance, let us move on. I am going to call this the death hammer clause. She WAS very important to the anime, one of the major influences that Sakurai looks at. Obviously her reoccurring jokes are done for, but that doesn't change all of her appearances in one of the main mediums used by Pokemon. The only reason Lucario is in the game. Here comes the Death Hammer Clause, which Pokemon is MORE worthy than Jigglypuff? Zoroark sure as hell isn't. He is a one time character from ONE movie. Have fun with that one, there might be more unique or popular Pokemon. However, no one is MORE worthy.

So STFU, Jigglypuff has WAY more to justify her inclusion. You are just biased (I am too, but at least I have teh evidence of love).

 

[Groose]

Rhythm Monkey Chance: 5%
Honestly, I think we have a pretty decent shot at a Rhythm Heaven character. But the monkey... eh. I think we'd see Marshall or Beat Girl first. Still, this ape has a small chance.

Rhythm Monkey Want: 10%
Not a huge fan of him. Anyone from Rhythm Heaven would be interesting... but I'd prefer pretty much anyone else over this guy. I just don't like his design.

No Cuts Chance: 5%
First and foremost, Sakurai has said he can't bring every character back. That's a major, major, major blow. Even if all characters are planned... will they have time to include them all? Nintendo is probably going to push this game forward as much as they can... they can't afford for it to be delayed as much as Brawl. I see anywhere from 2-5 cuts as likely, simply from a time management standpoint.

No Cuts Want: 20%
Simply put: I'd rather have a ten newcomers and a half-dozen cuts than a half-dozen newcomers and no cuts. If I ever want to play as cut characters... that's a great excuse to go back down memory lane and play Brawl or Melee, y'know? Keep things moving forward, I say!

Now, if Nintendo can somehow bring every character back and still put a solid number (~8-12) newcomers on the table... then I would like that. That's the best case scenario... but I doubt it can happen.

Fawful Prediction: 3.65%
He's better than what we've been rating lately. He still has next to no chance.

King K. Rool x5

He'd be unique, but I don't think he'd be fun. The Illusion mechanic really only works first turn for Zoroark, and in smash terms that means they're doing a shed tonne of work for maybe 5-10 seconds of game play to trick the opponent... after which zoroark is just a normal character with too much work done on him.

It could work like Naruto, where he clones himself to trick the opponent.

What Cheezey said is the crux of the matter. I made a big rant back on Zoroark's page about how difficult both conceptually and technically it would be to transform Illusion for Smash. It's supposed to fool your opponent and gain the upper hand by forcing a switch... but in Smash, you get the upper hand for a combo, and, boom, Illusion is done for the match. I just don't see how it could work and not take more time than the rest of the newcomers combined.

And while Zoroark would definitely be unique...so can many other characters that require less work. Somebody like Ditto with Transform would be a lot easier to do, and he'd bring much of the same innovation. Villager screams uniqueness and just like I'd always hoped either he or Tom Nook would be, but that bit of programming was a lot simpler than designing and programming Illusion.

I'd be OK if Zoroark made it... but they could have used their time more wisely, you know?

 

[Gingerbread Man]

So STFU, Jigglypuff has WAY more to justify her inclusion. You are just biased (I am too, but at least I have teh evidence of love).

No, I will not shut the **** up. Simply being a veteran is a terrible excuse. By all means you should have better reasons backing your inclusion.

And note I said she is hard to justify, not impossible. Easily justifiable characters come off as self explanatory, characters like jigglypuff require essays much like the one you replied with.

 

[SchAlternate]

day isn't over rite let me put here

Monkey business
Likelihood: 10% - I highly doubt any characters representing Rhythm Heaven. A stage, music, or anything else is more likely to happen.
Want: 0% - Nah.

I'M GONNA MAKE PAPER DOLLS OUT OF Y- *gets easily defeated*
Likelihood: 15% - There are plenty of characters with a slim chance of getting cut, but I can imagine a few cuts here and there, though nothing that significant. Without SSE and Sonic being planned from the get-go, as well as plenty of time to execute it (given they delay the game at least a bit), I we'll see most, if not all, veterans making the cut while receiving a decent amount of newcomers; about as many as we got in Brawl. There'll still be some, though...
Want: 90% - I'd say NO CUTS!! immediately, but there's just one particular character that seems off. Yup, you guessed, it's Snake. While I'm fine with him, he just doesn't really belong in Smash. Sure, his gameplay is fun, but so can be anyone else's, really. Besides, I'd be pretty pleased to see good ol' Belmont in here...

The one with the chortles
Prediction: 0.75% - I HAVE UNEASINESS!

Nominations
Zero Gravity x5

 

[Morbi]

No, I will not shut the **** up. Simply being a veteran is a terrible excuse. By all means you should have better reasons backing your inclusion.

And note I said she is hard to justify, not impossible. Easily justifiable characters come off as self explanatory, characters like jigglypuff require essays much like the one you replied with.

So you are saying that collectively all of the circumstantial evidence amounts to nothing? You fail to see that she does have some inherent popularity and significance predominantly based on her iconic role in the Anime. Her 15 years of relevance to the very game we are discussing mixed with certain high points such as her time as an S tier warrior (which expands upon the 1/12 playerbase)? You also dismiss the notion that she is very unique and offers something different to the roster?

I am still waiting for your answer on who the better Pokemon candidate could be, I am assuming there is no response in regards to that premise because it is impossible. So I rest my case. Jigglypuff is important to Smash regardless of whether her importance is implied, or it needs an "essay" to spell it out. She probably offers a lot more than any crazy newcomer you are looking forward to (unless you happen to be looking forward to Ridley).

 

[Groose]

Rhythm Monkey (Rhythm Heaven)
4.34% chance
17.65% want

Our little monkey could never find his rhythm and failed to impress. He did perform better than most characters we've rated recently, but he still among the least likely and least wanted.

No Cuts
32.80% chance
57.91% want

This is possibly the greatest grounds for analysis we've received from this game so far. There's just under a a third of a chance of it happening, but just over half of you want it? Interesting... feel free to discuss this result a bit today.

“I HAVE FURY! In the last moments of the finale when relief leads to negligence that begets rashness, that is when the comeback that falters comes back and beats your pathetic comeback that I scoff at!”

Yeah. That guy? Have you the remembering of that guy? That awesome man with the glasses and the bean green body? He has chortles. But he will be having the fury if you don't do the voting for him today. Please rate Fawful in chance and want.

WARNING! CHALLENGER RE-APPROACHING! He's mean, he's green, he's not named Fawful! Yessir, King K. Rool is back in the hotseat today. Please rate everyone's favorite Krokodile, King K. Rool in both chance and want today!

Tomorrow we'll be rating a veteran! Her His Her name? Sheik, survivor of the Sheikah! Please predict how Sheik will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations. Groose has chortles, as he did the winning of them today!


Note from the OP: Hey, guys. I've got a massively busy schedule this weekend. Halloween itself may interfere with an update, and the wedding that I have to attend certainly will. I also have to go to an Oktoberfest celebration, write two English essays, do a calculus packet, and write up a massive lab. Did I mention that I have work, too? Anywho, I'm just trying to say that I may not be able to update until Monday. I'll shoot for sometime on Saturday, though, so we'll see.

 

[SchAlternate]

You made it by two minutes.

SUCCESS!!

 

[Erimir]

Aw, I just missed it.

Was going to point out that by simple independence assumption on veterans returning, we'd get about a 20-30% chance of no cuts. However, I'd say that cuts are not independent - if we get one cut, we're more likely to get more. Except for Snake, who is the most likely to be a single cut. That is, if we know Snake is cut, it doesn't affect how much chance I give other veterans much. If anyone else is cut, it does (it makes them more vulnerable). Of course, at some point this reverses and if we know 4 characters are cut already, I'd rate the chances of further cuts as pretty low.

ANYWAY, Sakurai said he couldn't bring back every character (although this could also be referring to the cut characters from Melee), Snake doesn't make a lot of sense as a Smash character (and the upcoming big title for PS4 and Xbox One and not Wii U doesn't help things).

All in all, I'd have put it at about 20% chance of no cuts.

Since I kinda actively don't want Snake to return, my want can't be 100%, but I'd certainly prefer no cuts to several. Beyond Snake though I don't really actively want anyone gone, although I don't really care much about certain character. I'd have said I want no cuts like 75%.

Rhythm Monkey whatever. A rhythm-based moveset would be unique, but that doesn't mean it would be good. I already hate Donkey Kong's final smash, because there's almost no other situation in which rhythm matters in the game. Playing as a rhythm-based character would be completely different from every other character, but not in a good way, imo. How would that work? Would it be like Marth's forward-B, but like, all the time?

Anyway, seems unlikely and I don't really want any rhythm-based movesets.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Fawful Chance: 2% He has a chance, but unlikely to be considered.
Fawful Want: 0% Meh I prefer Geno.
K. Rool Chance: 75% I think he has a solid chance, only if Sakurai notices his popularity (In which he will)
K. Rool Want: 20% Meh.
Sheik Prediction: 56.6% Seriously, she's not getting replaced by Impa, unless Impa was an additional transformation along with Zelda _ Sheik.
Nominations:
x5 Dr. Kawashima

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Fawful Want: 10%
Likelihood: 0%

K. Rool Want: 95%
Likelihood: 35%

Sheik: 76.8%

Rhythm Heaven rep x5

 

[TCRhade]

Fawful Chance: 3% Very little chance, but slightly known, I guess.
Fawful Want: 0% Don't care. But rather him than Waluigi.
K. Rool Chance: 75% as well. A lot of people want him, and he's popular as eff. Sakurai might notice that.
K. Rool Want: 100%. My most wanted, #1.
Sheik Prediction: 50% I don't mind if she gets the shaft, but at the same time she's a staple since Melee, so I don't know.

No nominations.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Fawful Chance: 3% Very little chance, but slightly known, I guess.
Fawful Want: 0% Don't care. But rather him than Waluigi.
K. Rool Chance: 75% as well. A lot of people want him, and he's popular as eff. Sakurai might notice that.
K. Rool Want: 100%. My most wanted, #1.
Sheik Prediction: 50% I don't mind if she gets the shaft, but at the same time she's a staple since Melee, so I don't know.

No nominations.

Would you mind nominating Dr. Kawashima for me?

 

[TCRhade]

Would you mind nominating Dr. Kawashima for me?

Of course not.

x5 Kawashima.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm going to bet that BKupa is gonna come back for one more round.

 

[loganhogan]

Fawful
chance 20% I wouldn't expect him before Toad, Bowser Jr, or Paper Mario but I can easily see him as an assist.
want 25% He's not the first Mario character i'd ask for.

K. Rool
chance 70% Popular and important he's one of the characters i'd expect. Although there is the possibility that Sakurai could pick Dixie instead and cap the DK roster at 3.
want 50%

x5 Rosalina

predict 70%

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Fawful: 2%
Want: 0%
K Rool: 75%
Want: 100%
Sheik: 65%
Nominate:
Yarne x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Music for Fawful: Fawful is There, Fawful's Evil Plan, Cavi Cape,Cacklette's Theme, an Fawful an Cackletta

Hey, don't forget about In the Final!

Fawful
Chance: 1%
A winner is not you, Fawful. While Fawful would be a good representative for the Mario RPG games, he's highly popular and adored by many fans, seeing Fawful appear over Bowser Jr. or other Mario characters would be rather odd… especially when people aren't really demanding Fawful.
Want: 0%
Let me make this clear: I don't hate Fawful! He's an awesome villain! But… if he got in over Bowser Jr…. I won't have chortles! I HAVE FURY! MASSIVE FURY! I curse Sakurai's name as well as the developer's as fink rats if they included this mustard of doom of a character in this beautiful salad known as SSB4!
Poor Fawful impression? Eh. Bottom line: I want Bowser Jr. and I would be ticked if a Mario character like Fawful got in SSB4 over him. He would be an awesome Assist Trophy however.

King K. Rool
Chance: 85%
This is the same rating I gave to Dixie Kong. They both have advantages over each other. While Dixie Kong and King K. Rool would both be logical choices for a 3rd Donkey Kong rep as they are important to their series, Dixie Kong has the advantage of being in Tropical Freeze while King K. Rool isn't even the main villain in DKCR and I think that he's not going to be in Tropical Freeze. The last we've seen of him was in Mario Super Sluggers. But, that doesn't matter. Just because Diddy Kong wasn't in Donkey Kong: Jungle Beat doesn't mean he didn't get into Brawl, right? That same rule can be applied to King K. Rool.
The distinct advantage that King K. Rool has over numerous characters that could be in SSB4 is his huge amount of demand. I'm going to compare Ridley's demand to King K. Rool's demand. Ridley is highly wanted in the west. King K. Rool is not only highly wanted in the west, but also in Japan where it matters most. This puts King K. Rool to having a significant advantage and edge over many potential newcomers for this alone. In fact, I bet King K. Rool has reached a territory where he is incredibly impossible for Sakurai to ignore.
Also, King K. Rool satisfies most of Sakurai's requirements and his moveset potential plays a role in this where he can have a moveset based on his appearances as his normal king self, a pirate, a scientist, and a boxer. I bet with this gameplay style, it would not only attract old Donkey Kong Country fans, but also newcomers to the Smash series. He would be a great character to market the game with!
Overall, while I think his lack of appearance in DKCR and (possibly) Tropical Freeze is a setback, he has so many positives that it doesn't effect the king's chances that much.
Want: 100%
King K. Rool is my 3rd most wanted newcomer, behind Little Mac and Bowser Jr. I would be incredibly pleased if he was playable! Besides, I do like heavyweight fighters like Bowser, Donkey Kong, and King Dedede. I don't use those characters very often, but I find them to be cool.

Psst. Sakurai. Tomorrow is Halloween. Since King K. Rool has many different outfits and personas, you should reveal him tomorrow!
Hahaha. What?

Sheik Prediction: 95.23%
She's not going anywhere, but I bet a few skeptics say otherwise.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[Toxicroaker]

Fawful: 2% Having "FURY!!!" Doesn't get you into smash.
Want: 75% I want to play as someone this awesome. That would be "Like a pie full of wow!"

King K. Rool: 80%
Want: 80%

Sheik: 81.01%

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik

 

[Louie G.]

FAWFUL

Wait, Fawful AND K. Rool on the SAME DAY?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3ALwKeSEYs

Alrighty then, Fawful:

Chance: 3%
Ain't gonna happen. But oh, if it happened, it would be the delicious mustard on the bread of Smash. Still, his chances are next to none.

Want: 100%
Bowser's Inside Story is amazing. Fawful is amazing. Smash is amazing. Fawful confirmed. (I wish...)

KING K. ROOL

Chance: 70%
Oof, tough call. Well, K. Rool is one of the most requested characters not only in America but in the world, and he is one of the few iconic Nintendo "All-Stars" left to join the fray. The only thing in his way is Dixie Kong, but I don't see why they wouldn't be able to join together, rounding out the DK franchise, an important Nintendo franchise which I am almost positive will get either K. Rool or Dixie, if not both.

Want: 100%
Again, K. Rool is amazing. His moveset potential is almost unmatched by any other possible newcomer, he's iconic, funny, well-loved by Nintendo fans worldwide...
He's one of the few characters that I would truly be disappointed about not making the cut.

Sheik Prediction: 90.75%
Why anyone thinks Sheik is going anywhere is a mystery,

Noms:
Palutena x5

 

[BKupa666]

Copypasting over my rationale from June, with a few edits.

King K. Rool:

Likelihood - 99%
As biased as I am regarding the character, I like to think that my bias stems from the legitimate strength of K. Rool's chances, rather than vice versa. Anyways, since there will definitely be ratings focused around his popularity, potential, importance, "relevance" and Dixie, I want to take a different approach and bring up Sakurai's interview from a few months ago, which was a convenient godsend, considering it takes my argument and reinforces it, and from the horse's mouth, no less.

"PN: You get a lot of requests for new characters, and from fans and even developers. Do you consider these requests, or do you prefer to keep your vision intact game, and so keep the balance sought by not taking into account these suggestions?

Sakurai: Well, I would indeed account requests from fans. But the phase in which I collect this kind of information is already completed, and we are currently working to integrate this content in. We always try to incorporate as much content in our program."

And now, let's look at the 'information' we've produced, which began emerging most notably after Smash was announced at E3 2011 and increased in intensity into 2012, when the game began development. Taking the multiple character polls we've seen into consideration, as well as the observations from the multiple users who have delved into Japanese forums, the Top 3 requests are Mewtwo, Mega Man, and K. Rool, and have been for quite some time.

Now, let's look at the visible impact these requests have had on the roster thus far: Mega Man was a day one reveal as the game's most popular newcomer, and Sakurai has openly claimed to be "thinking about" adding Mewtwo (to put this in context, he claimed to be "thinking about" adding Pit after Uprising's release). With the top two most wanted characters already confirmed and psuedo-confirmed, I think it's a borderline certainty that Sakurai has heard our wishes and is obliging, as he has done with virtually every non-Ridley popular character in the past, just without our knowledge of him listening to the 'information' we put out.

Now, note that neither of Mewtwo or Mega Man are Nintendo newcomers nor new additions to veteran series. K. Rool is not only the fan-favorite frontrunner for both of these categories, but is also the definitive villain newcomer. However true it may be that Ridley's fans have had a longer wait for their character, K. Rool hails from a larger series, receives strong demand beyond just the West, and, as far as we know, doesn't require the team's 'best efforts' to incorporate. This isn't to mention his capacity to catch the development team's eye for what was also just stated in an interview: the ability to bring something new to the table and stand out on the roster.

I'll close by saying that I find the notion that he's only a 'possible' addition in competition with a character whose only (alleged) advantage over him is existing in a new game, despite Sakurai visibly listening to fans and him being such a massive remaining fan-favorite, positively delusional. At this point, I basically consider any decision to leave K. Rool off a roster prediction to be one based on gut feelings and/or distaste for the character, rather than any semblance of understanding how past rosters have worked and how this one is shaping up.

An addendum (10/30/13): I didn't touch on the potential for K. Rool to get left out, so I'll briefly address it here. While it does exist and I acknowledge it, it isn't based upon anything concrete or on any known criteria of Sakurai's. Any character could get left out for reasons none of us are aware of, therefore I'm perfectly comfortable calling K. Rool an objectively likely character when everything else he has in his favor catapults him far above and beyond the rest of the pack (aside from a very select few).

Want - 100%
Short and sweet, I buy this game and a Wii U (and possibly the same for the 3DS) if K. Rool is playable. If not, I'll appreciate whatever other excellent content the game is sure to offer from the comfort of a friend's house, rather than my own.

Fawful Prediction and Want - 5%
Humorous diction does not necessarily translate into a compelling Smash character.

Nominate:
Groose x5

 

[Zhadgon]

Character:
Fawful.
Chance: 1.00%
A second rate villain from the Mario RPG series will not make it in before Paper Mario.
Want: 50%
Meh...

Rerate:
King K. Rool
Chance: 33%
There is much competition going on especially from Dixie Kong on who will be the one to make it in.
Want: 90%
Love the character and it would be amazing to get him playable.

Prediction:
Sheik: 90%
She will come back as how Toon Link got back.

Nomination:
Donbe and Hikari x 5.

.n_n.

 

[Sid-cada]

Fawful

Chance - 0.75% - Poor, poor Fawful. Fawful may be having popularity and funnies, but not exactly likely. Competition is tighter than rush hour of subway, and uncertain if even up for consideration.

Want - 30% - Fawful bring laughter, sure. His talk like bad dub of movie of Kung-Fu fighting causes chortles, yes. But I have doubt that playable character will due justice of prime properness to Fawful. Maybe have Trophy for Assisting, instead.


King K. Rool

Chance - 87% - He should by all right, be in. Tropical Freeze may make me a bit nervous, as they may force Dixie in instead to push for the game, but the delay has made me think it won't have as much influence as I think it might. His hold over the franchise has kept him up, even if everything else may not.

Want - 75% - While I think he would be a good character, and I certainly would enjoy his inclusion, I'm just not passionate about him, like with Palutena and Ridley.


Sheik Prediction - 96.5% - High scores all 'round. I'm keeping it a bit lower than usual, incase a certain somebody suddenly decides to come back.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Gingerbread Man]

So you are saying that collectively all of the circumstantial evidence amounts to nothing? You fail to see that she does have some inherent popularity and significance predominantly based on her iconic role in the Anime. Her 15 years of relevance to the very game we are discussing mixed with certain high points such as her time as an S tier warrior (which expands upon the 1/12 playerbase)? You also dismiss the notion that she is very unique and offers something different to the roster?

I am still waiting for your answer on who the better Pokemon candidate could be, I am assuming there is no response in regards to that premise because it is impossible. So I rest my case. Jigglypuff is important to Smash regardless of whether her importance is implied, or it needs an "essay" to spell it out. She probably offers a lot more than any crazy newcomer you are looking forward to (unless you happen to be looking forward to Ridley).

You seem to mistake my view of jigglypuff potentially being cut as she WILL be cut. I put a 30% on the no cuts probability (mind you that's also citing snake as a possible reason), meaning I wont be surprised if jigglypuff is still there. But at the same time I would not be surprised if she is cut.

I don't deny that her moveset is unique or that during the release of the first smash game, she was a significant character. But in light of the current pokemon universe, shes not exactly a star character either. I wouldn't even put her in the top six most prominent pokemon (the current number of pokemon reps).
I'm sure sakurai consults the pokemon company a lot on these decisions. With so little attention jigglypuff gets in comparison to her 5 other pokemon reps, I can easily see the pokemon company pushing for another character. But at the same time its possible that she stays.

And one more time before you send another post criticizing my view. I am not saying that there's a 100% chance she will be cut. I'm saying its probable.

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Fawful: 4.5%
I HAVE-
little faith in his appearance in Smash Bros.

Want: 7.5%
I enjoy the Super Mario RPGs, but I don't really think too highly of Fawful.

K.Rool: 35%
He isn't really the most important villain in the Donkey Kong games. That would be Mario.

Want: 5%
I'm not really a fan of the DK games, and nothing about King K.Rool really strikes me as exciting, or even interesting.

Sheik prediction: 98.1%
In case someone misinterprets it as Sheik being an independent character from Princess Zelda.

Nominate:
Klonoa x5

 

[Erimir]

It might make sense to rename some of the concepts as such:

Five Zelda characters (Sheik not included) merge with → Zelda newcomer.
I think we all agree Zelda and Ganondorf are returning, so since Toon Link is confirmed, four Zelda characters can pretty much be assumed. Zelda newcomer is a simpler way to put it. Unless you want it to be exactly five Zelda characters, but I don't think rating Zelda newcomer vs. 5 Zelda characters will be an interesting difference.

Four to Five 3rd Parties → Four or more 3rd-party characters
I think it's easier to think about X or more than exactly four or five. I would apply this generally to any similar concept.

Two "Retro" Characters → Two "Retro" Newcomers
I assume that's what you meant, because Ice Climbers and Mr. Game & Watch are pretty much locks.

Fawful

Fawful is a funny character from a popular sub-series of Mario. The problem is that Mario isn't necessarily getting another rep. And even if they got two new reps, there are more popular and well-known choices. Bowser Jr, Toad, Waluigi, Paper Mario, etc.

The other thing is that the main appeal of Fawful, imo, is his dialogue. Something which will not really come over in the Smash games, except perhaps in taunts. Otherwise he'll just be this weird little guy. He fits in a dialogue heavy game, like an RPG, much better than a game like Smash.

Fawful chances: 1%

Fawful want: 40%
I like him well enough, but as I said, I don't think he'd be as appealing as a Smash character as he is in the Mario & Luigi games. There are more deserving Mario characters as well.

King K Rool

Re-rate!

I don't think a lot has changed for King K Rool. We haven't really gotten any information about Tropical Freeze that bears on K Rool. We still know there's going to be a 4th playable character and there's still a lot we don't know about the enemies. There's plenty of room for K Rool to be a playable character or an antagonist, or even both. Could be a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" situation.

Not that he has to be in Tropical Freeze for the main villain of the blockbuster SNES DKC games and DK64, who also appears in other DK games to be justified.

So, basically the same

K Rool chances: 83%

K Rool want: 95%
One of my most wanted.

Sheik prediction: 95%
Ah, my Melee main. Hopefully they get a good balance this time. She was overpowered in Melee, but so, so much fun to play as (imo). Anyway, I think we all pretty much agree she's staying.

Nominations:
Well, I got the last Brawl veteran there. Now there's only Melee's unwanted rejects left. Still... I'm gonna continue to promote the remaining veterans. I'll plant interesting concepts as they come to me though.

2x Dr Mario
1x Alternate Costumes for most characters (i.e. not limited to just Wario and hats for Pikachu and Jigglypuff)
1x Clone newcomers
1x More than ten newcomers

Ten newcomers would be less than Melee or Brawl had (14 and 18 respectively, if you count Sheik, ZSS and PT's Pokemon separately), but Sakurai has been downplaying expectations on the number of characters, so...

 

[Gam3rALO]

King K Rool
Chance: 85%
Who knows? Maybe Sakurai will just stay with Diddy and Donkey.

Want: 90%
Of course!

Fawful:
Chance: 1.33%

Want: .11%

Nominations
More than 10 newcomers x3
Paper Mario x2

 

[LoneKonWolf]

wait a minute, the day I missed was the no cut day?, the very day that I have been using my time and votes to complete and I miss it?
. . . . . . . . . . . .

Spoiler

any who, subsiding anger aside
Fawful - 5.02%
many said that fawful doesn't have a chance, that holds water but he does have a small silver of a chance, unrecognizable, because of the high chances of bowser Jr. paper Mario and waluigi (and toad, yes even he has a higher chance)
Want - 100%
I have fury!
beef? are you lacking in beef?
have you readiness for this?
mustard of your doom!
MUSTARD OF YOUR DOOM!
he'll be the funniest character is smash, plus his move set got to be something cool too.
King K Rool - 50.00%
K Rool got everything going for him, popularity, importance, and legacy. its just his rival also as that too (Dixie Kong) they are both even in chance that I see both as a 50/50 chance of getting either, so that is what I rate him at.
want - 100%
my picture a couple days ago, explains all of my feelings about k Rool.
Sheik - 94.33%
some will have doubt but there will be high scores from everybody, tomorrow
sigh . . .
now since the day I anticipated, I missed it, so now I have to vote on something else today . . . . .
nominations: brawl Pokémon + mewtwoX5

 

[PK_Wonder]

I highly anticipate one new Mario universes slot (this includes Mushroom Kingdom, RGPs, Yoshi, and Wario series, but not DK). I think there is about a 4-way tie for that seventh character, and Fawful is not one of those choices. An eighth Mario slot though? Highly unlikely, and it would probably go to one of the remaining three (I'm referring to Toad, Bowser Jr., Waluigi, and Paper Mario). Then there's Daisy and Rosalina and others in the way.

2% for Fawful.

King K. Rool, 85%

predict: 97.5%

nominate Victini x1, Dark Samus x4

 

[SmashShadow]

Fawful: 0.2%
Want: 0% Has no place being in before any of the 4 main Mario reps.

KING K. ROOL!!!!!
Chance: 70%
Want: 100%
He is the best Smash Rep not yet in Smash. THE BEST!

Sheik: 89%

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Psst. Sakurai. Tomorrow is Halloween. Since King K. Rool has many different outfits and personas, you should reveal him tomorrow!

Serious question; does Japan observe Halloween? Or at least on the same level that America or Europe does?

 

[DarkKry4]

Fawful

Chance - 0%
Want - 0%
Lets be honest


K. Rool

Chance - 25%
Hes popular and was the main dk villain for a while but idk if they'd add him tbh...
Want - 60%
I like him but i don't know if i want to play as him...



Sheik - 97.7%

x5 Pauline

 

[Smasher 101]

Fawful's chances: 1% - Yeah, I can't see it happening.
Want: 0%

King K. Rool's chances: 80% - Despite what I said on Dixie's day I now see him as the more likely of the two, plus there's a chance that we get both.
Want: 100%

Sheik: 96.43%

Hmm, who to nominate next...I think I'll go with Ray (Custom Robo) x5.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Does the "alternate costumes" concept include costumes to make them different characters?