Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[andimidna]

K. Rool is more popular than Dixie so people here rate him higher. Other places seem to expect Dixie more from what I gather.
Plusle and MInun requests don't happen because they're stupid choices and the only pokemon people want is Mewtwo
Dr. Mario is not considered because 1) There were more popular Mario characters considered and 2) Rosalina killed the chances of more Mario characters.

Toon Zelda is still viable given Zelda getting a new rep would not be surprising (although not necessarily a given) and reveals have supported her inclusion (Toon Link coming back) more than they have made it unlikely. Also, I'd argue Impa would be more likely to play exactly like Sheik than Toon Zelda is likely to play like Zelda, but that's just my opinion.

Link===Toon Link
Zelda=/=Toon Zelda?
but
Sheik===Impa?!
No, there's really no logic in that... especially because
WW Link IS unique in his own game(s)
Ex: Deku Leaf, Skull Hammer, etc.
and
Toon Zelda and TP Zelda do the exact same thing (so they're NOT unique in their own games)
Both just shoot light arrows in the final battle. At least there's actually a boss fight with TP Zelda. But with WW Zelda? Nope. Just Zelda's final smash.
Toon Link had the ability to be unique without making stuff up. And he ended up a clone.
Same goes for Impa.
She's a magic-type character.
And Sheik isn't.
So why would she clone Sheik... because she's a Sheikah?
If you think that, then why are the Hylians Link and Zelda unique for each other?
And would you expect Twinrova to be a clone of Ganondorf if she was added? (she's deconfirmed, I know)
No offense, but have you played Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, and Skyward Sword?
The character teamed with Toon Zelda in Brawl's files was called Toon Sheik, it was supposed to be a clone. Toon Link was a last minute clone, so were they going to be too.

I think it's more likely Tetra would clone Sheik rather than Impa cloning Sheik.

I don't understand Tetra being added alone with random pirate moves.
Still...
Toon Link===Link
Tetra=/=Zelda's realistic alter ego?
Say pirates are the opposites of ninjas all you want, it only takes away the viability of her being added as a clone. And I see her being unique as less likely.
And if it's Tetra alone, the forbidden 7 doesn't support her.

 

[TheMysterious2634]

Sora:
Chance: 0.4% Honestly? Kingdom Hearts is not getting a rep. EVER.
Want: 0% I really have no connection to Kingdom Heart whatsoever.

And while we're on the subject on connection characters...
TOON ZELDA AND TETRA!
Chance: 50% I believe that with their standard popularity and high charm, Sakurai would have trouble not reconsidering them. As for solo Tetra beliefs, I do not follow. If we're giving Tetra a Down B, then why not Toon Zelda? I mean seriously.
Want: 100% Not kidding. Every fiber of my being wishes and hopes and wants to look up Toon Zelda's dress for these two. Wind Waker was my first 100% Zelda game. It holds a really deep place in my nerd heart. I was always disappointed that Zelda was not really viable, but TZ/Tetra could fix that AND bring something new. It's not often I type in color. You KNOW this means something to me.

Oh man that was exhausting.
Predictions:
Balloon Fighter: 0.6%
Gangplank Galleon: 17% The bias is strong within this one.

x5 Medli NPC

 

[Glaciacott]

Link===Toon Link
Zelda=/=Toon Zelda?
but
Sheik===Impa?!
No, there's really no logic in that... especially because
WW Link IS unique in his own game(s)
Ex: Deku Leaf, Skull Hammer, etc.
and
Toon Zelda and TP Zelda do the exact same thing (so they're NOT unique in their own games)
Both just shoot light arrows in the final battle. At least there's actually a boss fight with TP Zelda. But with WW Zelda? Nope. Just Zelda's final smash.
Toon Link had the ability to be unique without making stuff up. And he ended up a clone.
Same goes for Impa.
She's a magic-type character.
And Sheik isn't.
So why would she clone Sheik... because she's a Sheikah?
If you think that, then why are the Hylians Link and Zelda unique for each other?
And would you expect Twinrova to be a clone of Ganondorf if she was added? (she's deconfirmed, I know)
No offense, but have you played Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, and Skyward Sword?
The character teamed with Toon Zelda in Brawl's files was called Toon Sheik, it was supposed to be a clone. Toon Link was a last minute clone, so were they going to be too.

I think it's more likely Tetra would clone Sheik rather than Impa cloning Sheik.

I don't understand Tetra being added alone with random pirate moves.
Still...
Toon Link===Link
Tetra=/=Zelda's realistic alter ego?
Say pirates are the opposites of ninjas all you want, it only takes away the viability of her being added as a clone. And I see her being unique as less likely.
And if it's Tetra alone, the forbidden 7 doesn't support her.

Dude, relax. Was just answering your question about the forbidden seven. That was the main point of my post, with the comment about impa being a trivial speck of spit that was at most an afterthought to my post.

Feel free to launch as much twitter-format logic at that speck of spit as you want, I don't care enough to defend it. Maybe I would have in another day for the fun of it, but today I'm just not in the mood.

 

[Pacack]

I would like to change my chance rating for Sora down to 4%, Groose. Please catch that when tallying up the scores.

 

[andimidna]

Dude, relax. Was just answering your question about the forbidden seven. That was the main point of my post, with the comment about impa being a trivial speck of spit that was at most an afterthought to my post.

Feel free to launch as much twitter-format logic at that speck of spit as you want, I don't care enough to defend it. Maybe I would have in another day for the fun of it, but today I'm just not in the mood.

I'm not angry, I just want a debate.
Sometimes that's looked down on but... I leik debates when I have the time...
And this thread doesn't seem like the wrong place for it, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Glaciacott]

I'm not angry, I just want a debate.
Sometimes that's looked down on but... I leik debates when I have the time...
And this thread doesn't seem like the wrong place for it, if I'm not mistaken.

Ah, I see. My apologies, the text sounded upset/defensive for some reason. I suppose it was just my mind adding tone where there was none.

But yea, time-wise I don't really have much. I suppose if Impa is rated again at some point, or a topic of clones, I'd probably follow along with the debate. Just not now, sorry.

 

[andimidna]

When do we vote on Balloon Fighter and Gangplank Galleon?

 

[FalKoopa]

When do we vote on Balloon Fighter and Gangplank Galleon?

After Groose tallies up our ratings.

 

[Kenith]

I think I might be late.

Sora:
Chance: 1%. Not happening as long as there is Square Enix's fickleness.
Want: 1%. He could constitute a neat moveset, but he isn't a Nintendo character.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:

Chance: 50%. She has a good chance as Toon Zelda and Tetra are recurring elements of a prominent Zelda sub-series.
Although she might not be deemed unique enough, and Zelda doesn't necessarily need a newcomer as is. And it might be overkill to have technically four Zeldas.

Want: 50%. I don't care for Toon Zelda, but I wouldn't mind seeing Tetra as it would be cool to have a pirate alter-ego to Zelda to counter the existing ninja alter-ego to Zelda.

Balloon Fighter: 4%.
Gangplank Galleon: 20%.

 

[Zhadgon]

Sora
Chance: .01% Is not happening, first you need to convince Square-Enix and then Disney to use the character, haha I want to see who would try that.
Want: .01% Don´t get me wrong I love Kingdom Hearts, I played the second one and 100% it but for me Sora is a big "No-no", why because Moogle, Slime, Chocobo, Crono or a Dragon Quest Hero is more deserving than him, at least if Kingdom Hearts III would be launched to Wii U too maybe I will consider him.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 25% It has a lot of competition but she was planned for Brawl.
Want: .01% Don´t like it, the only way I would like her if she has a completely new moveset like Mac or Rosalina if she becomes a clone I would rage for three days.

Balloon Fighter: 2%
Gangplank Galleon: 5%

.n_n.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

huh gotta appreciate an late update, thanks to that I wouldn't even be able to vote
sora - 0%
simply not happening, and anyone actually thinking he got a chance is probably deluding them selves
want - 0%
never really see why he's such a likeable character,
toon Zelda/tetra - 22.50%
its practically an open arms race for any Zelda newcomer, these guys get an leg up for being proper toon representation , along with tetra being an fan favorite, but gets a leg down for lacking in the uniqueness tier,
want - 50%
don't really care for the combo, prefer other Zelda characters too
ballon fighter - 2.35%
gangplank galleon - 7.15%
nominations: . . . . . I don't know, I got no one to nominate honestly . . .

 

[andimidna]

I think I was 2nd closest on the Zetra prediction. I think Falkoopa won.
So it's been a couple days...

...lucky as heck I got the update in, now I gotta fly.

@ Groose should have known it's dangerous to fly at night

 

[Groose]

@ Groose should have known it's dangerous to fly at night

It's even more dangerous down here on the surface. All of these tiny birds are so scary!

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 8% chance
Keep in mind, I think there is a 7% chance of Tetra alone and maybe a 2.5% chance of Toon Zelda alone. Too much competition (Tingle, Ghirahim, etc.)

Toon Zelda/Tetra Want: 20%
So many better Zelda options than just another toon version. Still, definitely not an awful pick.

 

[Xenigma]

Random thought I just had (since the day is still going for whatever reason): why must we rate all different forms of Toon Zelda (of which Tetra is one) separately when we very recently had a Midna rating where any form she might appear in counts? It's easy to see how Sakurai might pick Toon Zelda/Tetra, Toon Zelda/Phantom, Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik, Toon Zelda alone, or Tetra alone; all in all they make up one very likely character IMO, but separately it's difficult to tell what may happen (though Toon Zelda/Tetra clearly has the most traction on SmashBoards). I'd be curious to see how a generic Toon Zelda rating would go so we can focus less on the specific implementation and more on if it's a character Sakurai would use in any form.

As for andimidna's last response to me (which I couldn't get to yesterday due to work), the Xerneas reveal and the Phantom reveal are so totally different that they're hardly even comparable (with very different contexts and implied meanings), and just because there are plenty of mysteries left with Smash doesn't mean one directly pertaining to Toon Zelda should be ignored when discussing Toon Zelda. Not that there's any real point in continuing the debate since it's clear that we're not about to change each other's opinions, but I like to think my stance is perfectly justified.

 

[andimidna]

Random thought I just had (since the day is still going for whatever reason): why must we rate all different forms of Toon Zelda (of which Tetra is one) separately when we very recently had a Midna rating where any form she might appear in counts? It's easy to see how Sakurai might pick Toon Zelda/Tetra, Toon Zelda/Phantom, Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik, Toon Zelda alone, or Tetra alone; all in all they make up one very likely character IMO, but separately it's difficult to tell what may happen (though Toon Zelda/Tetra clearly has the most traction on SmashBoards). I'd be curious to see how a generic Toon Zelda rating would go so we can focus less on the specific implementation and more on if it's a character Sakurai would use in any form.

As for andimidna's last response to me (which I couldn't get to yesterday due to work), the Xerneas reveal and the Phantom reveal are so totally different that they're hardly even comparable (with very different contexts and implied meanings), and just because there are plenty of mysteries left with Smash doesn't mean one directly pertaining to Toon Zelda should be ignored when discussing Toon Zelda. Not that there's any real point in continuing the debate since it's clear that we're not about to change each other's opinions, but I like to think my stance is perfectly justified.

I don't know what you mean by that. You're suggesting the Phantom is a move for Zelda that replaces Sheik, aren't you?
That's not justifiable.
Especially when rating Toon Zelda.
The removal of Sheik is not likely, and definitely wouldn't rise the chances of her getting a clone that has Tetra.
Are you saying Toon Zelda would be a clone and Tetra would be unique?
Because if the Phantom is a move, there is no Sheik, and nobody for Tetra to be a clone of. Therefore no reason to give the Phantom to Twilight Princess Zelda, because Zetra wouldn't be a complete clone in this scenario.

These theories can't coexist.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Expecting Groose?

Too Bad! wolf- . . . . . . . .
wait didn't I already do this joke?
. . .
yep I did this joke. . .
. . .
. . .
. . . . .awkward . . . .​

anyway, today at 9:40pm, groose has told me (along with the others that will be helping out) that he is completely busy, and won't be available till Friday
so, in other words,
i'll be taking over this thread till his schedule clears up,
along with @Brawler610 counting up noms and scores,
and @ FalKoopa editing the OP,
your game lies in our hands now mates

(pig is suppose to represent brawler610 . . . I ran out of models)
DAY IS OVER!
PLAYTIME IS OVER!​

 

[Xenigma]

...I never said the Phantom was going to replace Sheik? It's a possibility, sure, one I even brought up on the most recent Sheik rating, but it's certainly not a likely one, nor is it the only way the Phantom could be in Zelda's moveset. Again, we know nothing about the Phantom. That's the point. All we know is that it exists, and the only way we've seen it is in the context of regular Zelda. It's unusual, it raises a question, and, as I explained before, my opinion is that it points to Toon Zelda having been developed for the game. I choose to follow that opinion by giving Toon Zelda/Tetra a higher rating as I agree with the general consensus that that is the most likely implementation of the Toon Zelda character, nor do I see any conflict with the Zelda half in particular both having a transformation and having a Phantom tied to a move.

I could keep going, but I'm just liable to keep repeating myself, and again, I highly doubt either of us will change the other's opinion at this point. (Also, the next round is starting. Thanks lonekonwolf!)

 

[Arcanir]

Toon Zelda/Sheik
Chances: 30%, while she does have a lot of competition, where she stands out from the rest of them is that she was considered for playability back then. If Sakurai does want to revisit that old concept, then she can become playable.
Want: 30% There are more interesting Zelda characters I'd prefer over her.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Sora
Chance: .38%
Want: 21.49%
looks like pretty boy sora, gets spot 126th in chance along with a low want, he is also ranked less likely than cloud striff, who has an 0.29 better chance score, oh well, at least he still has SSF2
Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 30.81% (previously38.69%)
Want: 45.28% (previously:49.60%)
it appears the little duo have lost almost 8% in chance score, dropping them down 5 spots to number 16, their want also waned a bit, but overall they are still predicted as the most likeliest Zelda newcomer, I guess bad winds, still don't make a bad day at sea
today we'll be rating ballon fighter, ya know that kid that rides ballons? please rate ballon fighter in chance and want! does he still have a chance to enter the fray even though the villager is using his most Iconic move?
also to those kutthrot kremlings out there, there's something a little special to you, please rate a gangplank galleon stage in chance and want! this stage mostly corresponds with the boss battle against k. rool, but can it become a stage with or without him?
also for our predictions today, please predict how sheriff and shulk will fare!

whelp that's it, i'm off, smell ya later!
Nominations:

Spoiler

Unrated Newcomers
X88 Sheriff (Arcade)
x79 Adam “Authorization” Malkovich (Metroid)
X75 Alexandra Roivas (Eternal Darkness)
x72 Shantae (Shantae)
X72 Alph, Brittany, and Charlie (Pikmin)
X65 Panther Caruso (Star Fox)
x65 Kunio-Kun/Alex (River City Ransom)
X65 Shadow the Hedgehog (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x62 Eirkia (Fire Emblem)
x60 Isabelle (Animal Crossing)
X50 Hero of Light (Final Fantasy)
X50 Arino (Retro Game Challenge)
x49 Mallo (Pushmo)
x45 Marina (Mischief Makers)
x45 Gaius (Fire Emblem)
x40 Daroach (Kirby)
X40 Kiddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
X37 Dry Bowser (Super Mario)
X35 Flynn (Shin Megami Tensei)
x30 Petey Piranha (Super Mario Bros)
X30 Kid Icarus Dog (Kid Icarus)
x26 Batallion Wars Rifle Grunts (Batallion Wars)
X25 Protoman (Mega Man)
x24 Mallow (Super Maro)
x24 N (Pokémon)
X22 Doctor Lobe (Big Brain Academy)
x21 Godot (Ace Attorney)
x21 Akari Hayami (Wave Race)
x20 “X” Protagonist (X)
x20 Billy Hatcher (The Giant Egg)
X20 Toadsworth (Super Mario)
x18 Tiki (Fire Emblem)
x16 Kumatora (Mother/Earthbound)
X16 Lupus (Jet Force Gemini)
X16 Leif (Fire Emblem?)
X15 Tony (Earthbound)
x15 Spyro (Spyro)
x15 Mr. Resetti (Animal Crossing)
X15 Wild Gunman (Retro)
x12 Star Man (Pro Wrestling)
x12 King Hippo (Punch-Out!!)
x11 Wreck-It Ralph! (Wreck-It Ralph!)
X10 Landmaster (Star Fox)
X10 Hawlucha (Pokemon)
x10 Liquid Snake (Metal Gear)
x10 Jack (Harvest Moon)
x10 Toon Ganondorf (Legend of Zelda)
X10 Happy Mask Salesman (Legend of Zelda)
x10 Dunban (Xenoblade)
x9 The Old Man (Legend of Zelda)
X8 Will (Advance Wars)
x7 Jill (Drill Dozer)
x7 Imajin (Yumi Komo: Doki Doki Panic)
X7 Galacta Knight (Kirby)
x7 Rundas (Metroid)
x6 Heracross (Pokemon)
X6 Juno (Jet Force Gemini)
x6 Terra Bradford (Final Fantasy)
X5 Midna and Wolf Link (Legend of Zelda)
x5 Leon S. Kennedy (Resident Evil)
X5 Peppy “Barrel Roll” Hare
x5 Commander Shepard (Mass Effect)
X5 Rag Rappy(Phantasy Star)
X5 Detective Gumshoe (Ace Attorney)
X5 Alfonzo (Leave it to Me!)
X5 Gooey and Rick (Kirby)
x5 Wonder Pink (Wonderful 101)
X5 Junpei (999)
x5 Goomba (Super Mario)
x5 Koopa Troopa (Super Mario)
x5 Grandma (Legend of Zelda)
X5 Pyrrhon (Kid Icarus)
x5 Silver the Hedgehog (Sonic)
X5 Lyndis (Fire Emblem)
X5 Neku (The World Ends With You)
x5 Big Boss (Metal Gear)
x5 Nowi (Fire Emblem)
x5 Ruka Minazuki (Fatal Frame)
x5 Demon King Demise (Legend of Zelda)
X5 Chrono (Chrono Trigger)
x5 Hector (Fire Emblem)
X5 Diancie (Pokemon)
X5 Prince Fluff (Kirby)
X5 Deku Link (Legend of Zelda)
x5 Cless (Tales of Phantasia)
X5 King Harkinian (Wand of Gamelon) (I refuse to call it a Zelda title)
x5 Giovanni (Pokemon)
X5 Medli-Makar Team (Legend of Zelda)
X5 Frogger (Frogger)
X5 Maya Fey (Ace Attorney)
x5 Zoda (Star Tropics)
x5 Knuckle Joe (Kirby)
x5 Albert Wesker (Resident Evil)
x5 Basilio (Fire Emblem)
x5 Captain Rainbow with Nick (Captain Rainbow)
x5 Jack Frost (SMT)
x5 Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x5 Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik (The Legend of Zelda)
x4 Beedrill (Pokemon)
x3 Zip (FlingSmash)
x3 Hammer Bros. (Super Mario)
x2 Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)
x2 Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
x2 Soma Cruz (Some Game)
x2 9-Volt (WarioWare)
x2 Toon Zelda [no transformations] (The Legend of Zelda)
x2 Elite Beat Agents (Elite Beat Agents)
x1 Tabuu (Super Smash Bros.)
X1 Gundam (Gundam)
x1 Little Joe (Punch-Out!!)
X1 Red Savarin (Solatorobo)
x1 K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing)
x1 Miku Hinasaki (Fatal Frame/Zero)
x1 Jin Kazame (Tekken)
x1 Ultimate Chimera (Mother)
x1 Prince Peasely (Mario and Luigi)
x1 Darkrai (Pokemon)
x1 Gengar (Pokemon)
X1 Monita (Nintendoland)
Concepts, Stages and Rerates
X85 Shulk (Xenoblade)
X82 Non-Character Hanafuda Representation
X78 Two DK Newcomers
X70 Sandbag (Super Smash. Bros)
X60 Unlockable Newcomers
X50 Paper Mario “Stage”
X45 Paper Mario (Super Mario)
X45 Lord Helix (Pokemon)
X40 RTC Top Ten Member AT
X35 Bowser Jr. (Super Mario)
x35 Chibi Robo (Chibi Robo)
x31 F-Zero Newcomer
x30 Mach Rider (Mach Rider)
X30 Other M Ridley
x25 Professor Layton (Professor Layton)
X25 Bowser Land
X22 Three Fire Emblem Characters
X22 Lip (Panel de Pon)
x20 Sinnoh Pokemon Trainer
X20 Porky (Mother)
x20 Two “Retro” Newcomers [Little Mac is not Retro]
X20 50 or More Character Slots
x17 Dillon (Rolling Western)
X15 Impa (Legend of Zelda)
x15 Fire Emblem Newcomer (Not Chrom)
X15 Fawful (Super Mario)
X15 Chrom [Stance-Based Moveset]
x15 Four or More Third Parties
X15 Lor Starcutter
X15 Balloon Fight Stage
X15 Robin (Fire Emblem)
X15 >10% Chance Character Playable
X15 Slime (Dragon Quest)
X15 Halcandra Stage
X15 Medli NPC
x14 Vaati (Legend of Zelda)
X13 Dark Samus (Metroid)
X13 Ghirahim (Legend of Zelda)
X13 Dark Matter (Kirby)
X13 Dedede Arena
X10 Unlockable Characters
x10 SS Zelda
X10 No Cuts
X10 Luigi Series Newcomer
x10 Halberd Stage
X10 Hanafuda Character
x10 Solid Snake (Metal Gear)
X10 Pichu (Pokemon)
x10 Dragon Roost Island
X10 Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong)
X7 Indie Newcomer
x7 Masked Marth Costume
X6 Duck Hunt Stage
X6 Glitz Pitz
X6 Zoroark (Pokemon)
X6 Nintendo Land
x6 Clone Newcomers
X5 Lucina with Mask Transformation
X5 Reworked Meta Knight
x5 Porky Forms Day
X5 Funky Kong (Donkey Kong)
X5 Tropical Freeze Stage
x5 JRPG Newcomer
X5 Tails (Sonic)
x5 Ashley (WarioWare)
x5 Mike Jones (StarTropics)
X5 Wario Series Newcomer
X5 Standalone Charizard
X5 Wario Land Wario
X5 Mewtwo (Pokemon)
x5 Six Pokemon Characters
x5 Mario sub-series Character
X5 Medusa (Kid Icarus)
X5 Takamaru (Ninja Castle)
x4 Ten or More Newcomers
x3 Standalone Pokemon Trainer
x3 Banjo-Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie)
x2 Adventure Mode
x1 Unique Starfox Final Smashes
X1 Entire Melee Cast
X1 Wii Fit Board (Item)
X1 Yoshi Series Newcomer
X1 Wario Series Newcomer
x1 Another Unrevealed Third-Party
x1 Pokemon Series Newcomer [Mewtwo not included]
X1 Tourian
X1 Pokemon Stadium 3
X1 Luigi’s Mansion 2
X1 Elemental Lighthouse
X1 Smashfloats
X1 Pokefloats
X1 N’s Castle
X1 Lylat Cruise
X1 Microtransactions
X1 New Fourside

(both scores and nominations are courtesy of brawler610)

 

[BluePikmin11]

Balloon Fighter chance: 5% Unfortunately, Villager has took his powers on what made him unique.
Balloon Fighter want: 100% The retro that should have gotten over Ice Climbers.
Sheriff Prediction: 5.6%
Shulk Prediction: 75.7% I think I going to his chances a bit more.
Nominations:
x5 Alph Brittany Charlie

 

[Chandeelure]

-Balloon Fighter:
Chances: 0,7%
Want: 0%

-Gangplank Galleom Stage:
Chances: 10%
Want: 51%

-Sheriff Prediction: 6%

-Shulk Prediction: 52%

-Nomination: Chrom X5

 

[andimidna]

...I never said the Phantom was going to replace Sheik? It's a possibility, sure, one I even brought up on the most recent Sheik rating, but it's certainly not a likely one, nor is it the only way the Phantom could be in Zelda's moveset. Again, we know nothing about the Phantom. That's the point. All we know is that it exists, and the only way we've seen it is in the context of regular Zelda. It's unusual, it raises a question, and, as I explained before, my opinion is that it points to Toon Zelda having been developed for the game. I choose to follow that opinion by giving Toon Zelda/Tetra a higher rating as I agree with the general consensus that that is the most likely implementation of the Toon Zelda character, nor do I see any conflict with the Zelda half in particular both having a transformation and having a Phantom tied to a move.

I could keep going, but I'm just liable to keep repeating myself, and again, I highly doubt either of us will change the other's opinion at this point. (Also, the next round is starting. Thanks lonekonwolf!)

Up B: Farore's Wind (confirmed)
Side B: Din's Fire (confirmed)
B: Nayru's Love
Down B: Transform

If the Phantom can't fit anywhere, it's not part of her moves.
You aren't suggesting she makes that giant thing appear with a smash or a tilt, are you?

 

[colder_than_ice]

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0% - Villager comes to town.
Want: 12% - Not my most wanted retro.

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 18% - Very hard to predict, but I imagine that Sakurai going to focus on DKCR stages this time around.
Want: 56% - I'm mostly neutral.

Sheriff prediction: 3.3%
Shulk prediction: 74%

Nominations: <10% chance character becoming playable.

There is a slight inaccuracy in the Nominations chart. >10% means greater then 10%, Whereas I've been nominating <10% meaning less then 10%.

 

[Smasher 101]

@BigAxle wins extra nominations for Sora, while @ andimidna won an extra five from Toon Zelda/Tetra.

 

[andimidna]

Balloon Fighter:
Chances: Pretty much his only thing has been taken by Villager.
Not much a fighter, but he could have been unique if it hadn't have been for Villager stealing his only move.
Sakurai already dissed the Flippers, which almost nobody liked anyways.
I think Takamaru gets the spot of the retro character that returned in Nintendo Land.
I cant see him being a fighter anymore, and I barely could before what's commonly considered his deconfirmation.
I'll say there's a chance he's not deconfirmed.
0.5%
Want: 10%
Eh. Wouldn't care either way.
Gangplank Galleon:
Chances: Unlike many, I found K Rool pretty unlikely. I don't see why people think he's #4 most likely, that's definitely biased, he is not more likely than Dixie Kong. Nintendo is currently selling Dixie and Cranky, I don't get why K Rool would be added now. Even when he was relevant, Dixie was chosen over him. And now she's shown as the 3rd DK character in Tropical Freeze, and Cranky is seen as the 4th. Just as Rosalina was seen as the 5th Mario hero of 3d World. I do think he'll make a big return in the next DK, however, by bets on that Retro is making Metroid next, not anther DK. So it won't get represented in SSB4. As for the actual stage, it's old. I could only see them bring it back for K Rool, which I don;t think is happening. There are other stages that could be chosen for him anyways. So... 9%
Want: I honestly think will be returning from Brawl, as Toon Link is back because of a remake of the game represented by this stage. I think it makes sense to bring it back on the Wii U, make it HD, give it WWHD's bloom affect (like the Galaxy stage), give it some more locations, and bam. Done.
I think this should satisfy our needs to brawl on pirate ships.
I don't see what could be unique about it so meh... no thanks. I want something from Returns on the 3ds. And Tropical Freeze on the Wii U.
So... 5%
Sheriff- 11.11%
He's not likely, but there isn't really a reason for him to not be added. Or anything going against him. So there won't be much to lower his scores.
Shulk- 78.99% 68.99%
Hell yeah!
My nominations will probably change but for now...
x10 Tiki!

Can we vote on post-reveal newcomer satisfaction again?
Rosalina deserves better

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Blimp Bruiser, Aerial Avenger, Flying Floating Arm-Flapping Force to be Reckoned With, Balloon Fighter!: 0.2%
Basically what andimidna said.

Want: 12.5%
Can't really think of any reason he'd be more interesting than Villager.

Gangplank Galleon: 7%
Possibly not recent enough.

Want: 5%
Not particularly interested in DKC.

Sheriff prediction: 5.09%
Shulk prediction: 58.21%

Nominate:
Protoman x5

 

[andimidna]

I ust looked at the OP and laughed for like 5 minutes and how huge Sora's shoes look next to Tetra.
Dunno why.
Just realized how unrealistic my Shulk guess is, I'll go check his previous scores for an edit.
And I'll be rating Gangplank Galleon soon.

 

[NickerBocker]

Up B: Farore's Wind (confirmed)
Side B: Din's Fire (confirmed)
B: Nayru's Love
Down B: Transform

If the Phantom can't fit anywhere, it's not part of her moves.
You aren't suggesting she makes that giant thing appear with a smash or a tilt, are you?

Not saying this is likely, but the phantom could be part of those finishing moves that Sakurai mentioned a while back. land a few jabs and the phantom appears and lands a heavy sword hit. Just a thought...

Anyways...

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0.0001%
Want :0%

Villager and Villager.

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

If K Rool gets in, I would be surprised not to see this stage. it is very iconic in terms of DKC. As for want, dat music is legendary.

Sheriff: 4.2%
Shulk: 53.4%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[andimidna]

Not saying this is likely, but the phantom could be part of those finishing moves that Sakurai mentioned a while back. land a few jabs and the phantom appears and lands a heavy sword hit. Just a thought...

Anyways...

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0.0001%
Want :0%

Villager and Villager.

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

If K Rool gets in, I would be surprised not to see this stage. it is very iconic in terms of DKC. As for want, dat music is legendary.

Sheriff: 4.2%
Shulk: 53.4%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

The thing is, Zelda doesn't even have a repeated attack. Sheik does. And I can't imagine it appearing and disappearing all within 3 or less seconds.
Her A is slow, so it doesn't apply to her.
However, characters like Sheik, Kirby, Captain Falcon, Little Mac, Falco, and Wolf will be affected by this.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Balloon Fighter:
Chance: 2%
Villager has robbed him...there's an incredibly slim chance that he hasn't been completely deconfirmed by Villager, but he's very much the most unlikely retro at this point.

Want: 80%
I've always liked retros with universal releases. Balloon Fighter is one of the more well known and has been referenced in WarioWare and Nintendoland repeatedly. Pretty iconic.

Gangplank Galleon:
Chance: 10%
Honestly I can't see it happening over a DKCR/DKTF stage, even if K. Rool makes it in. Why? It could be K. Rool's stage? Yes, because characters always get specific stages for them rather than franchises getting the stages; hence why we've had two Bowser's Castle stages already. OH WAIT.

Want: 20%
There's very few stages I genuinely want...and we've already rated all of them except Glitz Pit already.

Predictions:
Sheriff: 5%
The first retro(maybe). Hasn't got a heck of a lot to work with.

Shulk: 74%
One of the few newcomers Japan really wants. We got Little Mac; this seems only fair.

Nominations:
5 X RTC Top Ten Member AT

 

[FalKoopa]

Balloon Fighter:
Likelihood: 0%
He's disconfirmed at this point. Get over it, guys.

Want: 10%
Eh... not really.

Gangplank Galleon:
Likelihood: 40%
The stage is a shoo-in if K. Rool gets confirmed. If the stage appears but K. Rool doesn't, it would be the trolliest move of the decade.

Want: 60%
The stage is great, but I don't care too much about stages in general.

Sheriff prediction: 3%
Shulk prediction: 70%
Looks like I'll be editing the Chance and Want charts again.

Nominations: Wild Gunman x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Balloon Fighter and Gangplank Galleon have been added to the Directory.

Balloon Fighter
Chance: 0%
I firmly believe that the Villager killed his chances. Villager's boxing gloves were not a direct reference to Punch Out!!. But the balloons? They are. Villager moves around like he is a Balloon Fighter. I can see the Balloon Fighter have his own moves, but I'm not banking on that happening.
Want: 55%
Could be cool.

Gangplank Galleon
Chance: 10%
I can see this happening if King K. Rool is playable. If he is, then I'll raise this to 50%. For now though, I don't see this happening, mainly because if we get a DK stage I'm more confident that it will be a Returns stage or a Tropical Freeze stage.
Want: 85%
Would most definitely be cool.

Heir to the Monado, Shulk Prediction: 65.82%
The time has come… another rating for Shulk. I can see his scores spike up. As I've mentioned before, I dunno why he was nominated in the first place; he is perfectly fine where he is. Regardless, I have prepared something for his day. Hopefully Shulk will succeed in this Unfinished Battle of getting a roster slot and hopefully we will all know his name. I hope that we can behold the power of the Monado in Smash with Shulk. *gulp* LET'S DO THIS!
Sheriff Prediction: 6.22%
He'll get some kindness since he's retro.

What will I nominate next? Hmm… that's easy.
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x
I'm curious on his scores will change. I might stop nominating him at one point so I can nominate Wario Land Wario if he isn't confirmed next week.

Can we vote on post-reveal newcomer satisfaction again?
Rosalina deserves better

Only if a newcomer is confirmed.

There is a slight inaccuracy in the Nominations chart. >10% means greater then 10%, Whereas I've been nominating <10% meaning less then 10%.

I'll fix that when I do the nominations tonight!

View attachment 10252
(pig is suppose to represent brawler610 . . . I ran out of models)​

This is awesome!

-Nomination: Chrom X5

So it begins…

 

[Smasher 101]

Balloon Fighter's chances: 0.5% - If Villager didn't happen I'd consider him to be one of the more likely retros and give him around 20%...but he did.
Want: 30% - I know he's one of the most iconic retros and all but...I just never did like this idea too much...though I'd like him over Takamaru or the Duck Hunt Dog.

Gangplank Galleon: 20% - Possible if K. Rool is added. We are more likely to get something from one of the recent games, but it's possible the one or both of the versions will get more than one DK stage.
Want: 100% - Another one of the few stages I truly want.

Sheriff prediction: 2.85% - I don't have a clue.
Shulk prediction: 60.24% - Why are we rating him again, exactly?

F-Zero newcomer x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Balloon Fighter Likelihood: 0%
Want: 65%

Gangplank Galleon Likelihood: 8%
Want: 50%

Sheriff: 2.86%
Shulk:: 64.55%

Unlockable Newcomers x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Balloon Fighter: 0.5%
Want: 100% He could be so unique

Gangplank Galleon: 45%
Want: 50%

Sheriff: 3.14%
Shulk: 56.78%

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik (I can't find this in the nominations list anywhere, even though I nominated it last time.)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Honestly I can't see it happening over a DKCR/DKTF stage, even if K. Rool makes it in. Why? It could be K. Rool's stage? Yes, because characters always get specific stages for them rather than franchises getting the stages; hence why we've had two Bowser's Castle stages already. OH WAIT.

To be fair all newcomers thus far have a dedicated stage, and currently announced stages also lead the way for frontrunners like Ridley, Chrom, Mii and Palutena. Even if you say the new franchise stages are only that, they're still the home stages for their respective characters. Of course there's also Rosalina who has her own stage too. Also, it's not like there can't be an old school DKC stage alongside a newer one, like Metroid had Frigate Orpheon and Norfair in Brawl, surely DKC will get more stages than two split across both platforms, and they can't all be from those two games (and god help us if Sakurai wants more arcade DK stages.)

Balloon Fighter:

Chance: 0% - His whole gimmick has been taken already. Including him now seems really redundant and unnecessary.

Want: 15% - I was never big on his inclusion.

Gangplank Galleon:

Chance: 60% - If K. Rool is in there's a great chance this stage will go with him, and since I believe that K. Rool's chances are great I also believe this stage has a high chance. Another option for him would be the flying ship from DKC2, which is also pretty radical. I don't believe K. Rool will go without a stage though, it's obviously a common theme that newcomers are getting their own stages this time.

Want: 80% - I liked the Pirate Ship stage fine, the Gangplank Galleon is basically that stage on steroids. Yes please.

Nominations:
5xRTC Top Ten Member AT

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Balloon Fighter: 0.01%
Even without Village I don't think he has enough going for him to be more than an AT really, though he would be a bit higher.

Want: 0%
Nah, I like the game, but the character does not interest me at all.


Gangplank Galleon: 15%
It hasn't been in the series for a LONG time, and Tropical Freeze has so many great places they could make stages out of it's insane. I think it's long past thanks to the sheer number of more recent, and more historic, competition. K.Rool is the only thing keeping this Galleon afloat, and even then he could be fought on any DK stage, and may well not be in the game. There's no theme of newcomers having stages either; Smashville was obviously coming back, Galaxy was gonna get a stage regardless of Rosaluma, and the other two and new franchises being represented (one of which is 3rd party)... they'd all be there anyway.

Want: 0%
That music could be on any DK stage, and Tropical Freeze has some of the best enviroments of any platformer ever... I want them to use Returns and TF for as much as possible, and maybe a classic stage (like 75m? Please). I also want to see Mini-Land stage on 3DS, and wouldn't mind seeing a Diddy Kong Racing DS stage so no wish from there.



Sheriff: 3.4%
Inflated by retro-ism

Shulk: 64%
Because it's relevant to Nintendo and I don't understand why people think he's not one of the most likely...


Slime*5

 

[Deleted member]

Balloon Fighter

1.5% Chance: An incredibly likely retro that got reneged almost immediately by Villager. As has been pointed out, the gloves were not a certainty for Little Mac at any point, they're just generic boxing gloves. The balloon recovery though, is a huge part of what Balloon Fighter is as a character. When another character has stolen that already, I can't see how it's possible for him to have a unique set.

All other arguments for him bump up the score a little bit, but it's basically a flat out de-confirmation.

25% Want: For a retro, not a bad choice; deserving game to rep and a genuine classic. The only downside is that his set couldn't be all that great. I may be missing something - sure, balloons can be used in a multitude of ways all on their own - but the character has little personality and there are other retros I'd prefer.

Gangplank Galleon

40% Chance: This all hinges on K. Rool and I find K. Rool highly likely, so that increases the chances of this stage. It's his home stage more than any other, as it takes place in the first Donkey Kong Country when he's using his most famous persona as King K. Rool, plus it's one of the most memorable bosses in the whole series.

The stage has plenty of ways to incorporate stage hazards, but the one real detriment is the pirate stage from Brawl inspired by Wind Waker. It's hard to imagine Sakurai creating yet another pirate stage, although he did implement a second Pokemon Stadium while getting rid of Pokefloats for some reason, so it's not too unlikely.

100% Want: I love this stage and the music it would use. I love the boss fight it's inspired by. It's not the most exciting stage idea, but it needs to be there for K. Rool's sake as a newcomer, any other stage doesn't do him justice. There are good ideas you could take for a stage from DKCR or DKCTF, none resonate as nostalgically as Gangplank Galleon.

Sheriff Prediction: 4%
Retros are popular, this one is obscure but so were Ice Climbers - what I imagine will be the logic.
Shulk Prediction: 70%
A shot in the dark aside from being around the same tier of score as his last rating.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5

 

[Deleted member]

x5 Toon Zelda/Sheik (I can't find this in the nominations list anywhere, even though I nominated it last time.)

No one else prior nominated this, so I added it on. Look at where there are characters with 5 nominations and you will find them!

I counted this as a newcomer rather than as a concept.

 

[Rockaphin]

Balloon Fighter:
Chance: 1.2%
Want: 20%
I'd rather have Balloon fighter over the popular Takamaru as a Retro Rep, but I don't really want Balloon Fighter too much. Villager basically does what Balloon Fighter does in one move.

Gangplank Galleon:
Chance: 15%
Want: 90%
I want this stage even if K. Rool isn't playable.

Predictions:
Sheriff: 1.8%
Shulk: 65%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5