Duck Hunt Dog
Popularity: It's more of an infamy, than a fame. He's quite well-known, especially in the US market. But he's not among the most wanted characters.
Relevancy: He'd be a retro character, from the NES era.
Design: Well, the more interesting designs tend to involve the hunter shooting from the 4th wall. It's definitely unique in concept but it strikes me as almost
too out there. Sakurai likes quirky, but I'm not sure that it's everything. The move sets which avoid the 4th wall hunter seem a bit more boring to me though.
Roster and Competition: As a retro character representing a new (to Smash) series, he's not directly competing against anyone except sort of against the other retros. In Melee, we added Ice Climbers and Mr. Game & Watch, while in Brawl R.O.B. and Pit were added (although Kid Icarus has now been revived, which makes Pit sort of retro, sort of not). So perhaps he will add another two, perhaps Sakurai won't.
However, before you go counting the NES characters left to add and say that this means Duck Hunt Dog is helped, keep some things in mind. Melee was released in 2001 and Brawl in 2008. Game & Watches were made from 1980 to 1991. R.O.B. and his games (Stack Up + Gyromite) were released in 1985. Kid Icarus debuted in 1987, and had its second game in 1991. So, Ice Climbers were 16 years old, and Mr. G&W was 21 years old and 10 years out of production when Melee was released. R.O.B. was 23 years old and Pit was 21 years old and 17 years out of production.
From this I take it that 16 years old and as little as 10 years out of production are possibilities to consider "retro characters". So far they've all been NES characters, but at this point SNES and Game Boy characters are definitely retro (most SNES games being between 23 and 17 years old at this point, and most original Game Boy games being 24 to 15 years old). Even characters that existed into the N64 era might be considered "retro" reps since the N64 was released 17 years ago and was replaced 12 years ago, so they'd all be at least 10 years out of production. I'd also enhance the chances of Game Boy characters since this is the first Smash that will be on a handheld, and Sakurai may want to commemorate that with a classic Game Boy character or something like that. So I don't think Duck Hunt Dog or Takamaru are competing only against other NES characters.
Sakurai factors: Sakurai said that he likes to revive series. So, his choice of retro reps may be somewhat informed by that. Pit was a very good choice by that measure. Ice Climber less so, and Game & Watch and R.O.B. being clearly series that weren't going to come back. Although one might say that Sakurai has enhanced Game & Watch's place in the Nintendo canon (observe Game & Watch being referenced in Nintendo Land).
At any rate, if that matters to Sakurai it helps Takamaru a lot and hurts Duck Hunt Dog since I don't think Nintendo would intend to revive Duck Hunt. Duck Hunt Dog could have a G&W type situation though, where the Dog gets more references in other games.
Duck Hunt Dog chances: 7%
Look, he's somewhat of a WTF character. And a WTF character kinda, by definition, needs to be surprising. His chances aren't that great. And he has more retro competition than people are admitting. At the very least, SNES and Game Boy characters are now retro too, so Sakurai has a fairly large number of characters to draw from for this category. I also wouldn't assume that he's necessarily going to add 2 or even 1 just to do so unless he really likes the candidate (that is, I don't think he would pick Duck Hunt Dog just because he was the best retro rep left - if Duck Hunt Dog isn't good enough, Sakurai might just not add any retro reps).
Anyway, I think Takamaru is much more likely (Nintendo having made some moves enhancing Takamaru's recognizability recently), and there are a number of other plausible characters. And some of those other characters might appeal to him more for move sets, or for the possibility of series revival. So while Duck Hunt Dog is possible, he, like most retro reps, would be a little surprising.
Duck Hunt Dog want: 30%
I'd rather see other characters, but I'd definitely like to see a Duck Hunt Dog Assist Trophy, or a Duck Hunt stage where he pops up and laughs at you. That would be fun.
Ghirahim prediction: 35%
I dunno, just throwing numbers out there. I don't have a good read on this one.
Nominations:
Mike Jones x5
I've said it before: the point of this game is to see how wrong we are come launch. I doubt all of those characters will get in the game.
Before Brawl, Krystal often scored in the 70% range, even popping into the 80's on occasion. And we all know that we were wrong with that one.
To further the point, if those characters all got in, it would just show that we were mostly wrong. Assuming independence (which is wrong here), the chances of all of those characters getting in according to our scores is only 2%. And IMO they're not independent - each newcomer and non-Brawl veteran reduces the chances of some of the others since there are limited spots, so the likelihood should be lower than 2%. But if they're really shoo-ins (at least the veterans) then we've been underestimating them all. 2% isn't impossible, but if it happens it's more likely we underestimated the veterans than that we were accurate. And it's quite possible that we underestimated them, because the Toon Link development suggests to me that we have (I think Toon Link appearing in a stage and as a fighter also somewhat mitigates the damage done to Toad's chances by Peach's reveal).
I think Toon Link being confirmed improves the chances of most veterans. I don't think it has a large effect on Sonic or Snake, but it does affect Nintendo characters who might be thought to "no longer be relevant" considering Toon Link was widely considered one of the most obvious cuts. That's reflected in the fact that he got the lowest score of any of the Brawl veterans we've rated so far (although Lucario and Snake are pretty much in the same boat). It's quite possible Sakurai's famous comment really meant that Dr Mario, Pichu and Young Link weren't returning (and possibly Roy or even Mewtwo) rather than that Brawl veterans would be cut.
As a side note, hopefully we'll find that Toon Link has been further de-cloned by giving him something Wind Waker-y. The Grappling Hook, Deku Leaf and Skull Hammer are huge associations with Toon Link for me, and I'd love to see at least one of them properly integrated. Also, he should get his own Final Smash (it could involve riding the King of Red Lions and the cannon, for example).
