Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[FalKoopa]

On a side note: 5% wants for Meowth? You guys are the worst people. I'd give even hated characters around 10% if they're relatively iconic. Talk about hardasses.

Please don't go the way Diddy went on Impa's day. Of course, you can complain... but try to avoid it as much as possible.

Also, just putting it out, a very low want doesn't mean they hate the character per se, but could also mean that they don't want him taking up a spot instead of others.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Please don't go the way Diddy went on Impa's day. Of course, you can complain... but try to avoid it as much as possible.

Also, just putting it out, a very low want doesn't mean they hate the character per se, but could also mean that they don't want him taking up a spot instead of others.

Really trying not to. Really am. Failing yes, but trying.

I'll bare the non-hate in mind. Just when less iconic Pokemon start getting huge blown up want ratings I can't help myself. This game should be Nintendo All Stars, aka whose iconic enough to deserve the spot, not who is the newest character which in Pokemon's case seems to go that way. Trust me; Mewtwo, Lucario or a starter wouldn't annoy me, but if Sylveon starts getting 40% or higher wants all over the place when it comes to his/her turn...seriously guys: What the hell?

 

[Dyl9]

Meowth 0%
Aside from a few dedicated fans, he is considered a non contender and has even built up a small hatebase.

Want 0%
Aside from my biased anti Pokemon anime view due to the lack of intelligence, plot, character development, and quality character design, there are many more Pokemon that don't rely on anime focus that are still more important.

Prediction of Duck Hunt Dog 20%

Nowi (Fire Emblem Awakening) X 5

 

[Arcadenik]

Meowth.
Want: 100%
Likelihood: 25%

I will always want to play as Meowth in Smash but I feel demoralized about Meowth's chances since a lot of people are giving up on Meowth and starting to support other Pokemon... That could adversely influence Sakurai's decision... Like he would go "oh, people don't want Meowth anymore? Okay, I'll give them something else."

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Meowth:

Likelihood: 2% - The chances of a Pokémon newcomer is extremely small since all 5 veterans are relevant and popular enough to bring back, and if a Pokémon newcomer I certainly don't expect Meowth.

Want: 0% - Definitely not a Pokémon I feel deserves a spot in Smash, And before people throw Jigglypuff at me, what's done is done, she's become a Smash staple and was put in for other reasons (easy implementation being one of them,) let's not go the way of prioritizing anime-only stars over other characters.

Duck Hunt Dog Prediction: 16% - This one should be interesting.

Nominations:
5x Toad

 

[djgeiger0620]

Meowth chances - 25% - He's a popular character with potential for a very unique moveset. Behind Mewtwo, he's got the best chances of getting in.

Meowth want - 60% - yea, that'd be cool. Not freaking amazing, but cool nonetheless.

Duck Hunt Dog - 9.2%

Noms to Lloyd Irving x5 (of course)

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Meowth: 4%
That's right! Being a recurring character in the anime helps his chances (at least compared to the other Pokemon that appear in Brawl), but he's fairly unimportant in most of the games themselves. Furthermore, the Team Rocket trio have been getting less and less screentime in the show for years now.

Want: 2.5%
I never liked Meowth that much. He's got decent speed in the Pokemon games, but his moveset leaves much to be desired.

Duck Hunt: 6.66%

Nominate:
Mallo x2
Goemon x3
Groose, you've got Paper Mario listed twice on the re-noms list.

 

[SchAlternate]

I'll follow up the argument due to being really bored:
At this point, it just winds up being a matter of opinion. I stated mine and within that argument 1% is sensible and nowhere near measly. If we wanted to be realistic, we'd be taking into account a 1 over ~300 pokemon, since Meowth is one in seven hundred pokemon, and I round to 300 or so to account for the fact there's unevolved pokemon in there that are less likely than Meowth. So no, 1% given my reasoning is not measly at all.

There's other points in your response I'd happily argue, but this is not the thread for that. I mentioned the above one because one of the problems I notice in this thread, and at times I'm a victim of this as well, is that people just really don't understand how percentages work. Again, based on what I said, 1% is extremely generous for Meowth. To me he's just another pokemon, more important to the franchise than hundreds but less important than hundred others. Of course, to you he's a Nintendo icon and in that sense 1% would seem awfully low, but if you are capable of following my arguments, whether you agree or not, the score should make sense.

That is, if there's actually almost 300 Pokemon that have a chance, as minimal as it is, to enter Smash. Which isn't the case. And not all Pokemons have the same amount of chance as others do anyway.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Meowth: 2%
Want: 0%
DHD: 10%
Nominate:
Ridley x 5

 

[Deleted member]

The chances of a Pokémon newcomer is extremely small since all 5 veterans are relevant and popular enough to bring back.

You mean 6 veterans?
(in all seriousness though, Pichu has almost no chance of returning)

 

[Cheezey Bites]

You mean 6 veterans?
(in all seriousness though, Pichu has almost no chance of returning)

I'm still hopeful for Spikey Ear Pichu and Pikachu Colour Pichu combo as an alt skin for Plusle and Minun... though chances are we won't get them either .

 

[Deleted member]

I'm still hopeful for Spikey Ear Pichu and Pikachu Colour Pichu combo as an alt skin for Plusle and Minun... though chances are we won't get them either .

I wish I knew if the ambiguous "Pra_Mai" means in Brawl's data. If it does mean it's Plusle and Minun, then I do have some optimism for those Pokemon. Admittedly, a Plusle and Minun combo interests me.

HISTORY LESSON: Rate Their Chances originally only included chances... but SSBF added want ratings. It not only helps gauge popularity, but it also prevents people from inflating the chance percentage simply because they like a character: they can just inflate the want percentage instead! I used to play the game back in pre-Brawl. Back then, Diddy was our Little Mac, King Dedede was our King K. Rool, Ridley was our Ridley, and Krystal was our Palutena.

I wish I was around during pre-Brawl just to play this game and see what people thought of the chances for R.O.B. and several other characters. The only hype I've seen during pre-Brawl was me lurking around on Nintendo's old forums called the "NSider forums" which sadly shut down.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I wish I knew if the ambiguous "Pra_Mai" means in Brawl's data. If it does mean it's Plusle and Minun, then I do have some optimism for those Pokemon. Admittedly, a Plusle and Minun combo interests me.

Indeed, they interest me too; and even if Pra_Mai didn't mean Plusle and Minun Sakurai's no doubt heard the rumour that it did, so there's a seed of thought. If SSB4 gets DLC characters and there's a Ruby/Sapphire remake I think they're probably the front runner for the slot... sadly I'm not very optimistic of their chances at this point, but it would be cool to see.. still probably higher chance than Meowth though, if not by much.

 

[Groose]

Meowth's Chances: 7.5%​

Some of you are saying that Meowth's lack of importance in the games means he won't even be considered. This is a game for VIDEO GAME All-Stars, so Meowth simply doesn't belong.​

​

​

This is a game for NINTENDO All-Stars. They don't have to be from a video game... Nintendo is known for its video games, so all of the existing characters have been drawn from there. But that could change at any time.​

​

Oh, and then there's Jigglypuff. Jigglypuff doesn't act quite like the one in the anime, no. But Jigglypuff's anime popularity is what pushed it into Smash... Jigglypuff is no more important than Meowth in the games.​

​

Is Meowth a Nintendo All-Star? Yes. He's more recognizable than the vast majority of the characters we've been talking about. I'd even go as far to argue that he is MORE FAMOUS than any Nintendo character not yet playable in the Smash series.​

​

​

​

Iconic status is no issue, nor is his anime-heavy inspiration. What does stand in his way, then?​

​

Roster size and the vast number of Pokemon in the world. There are already five Pokemon that have been in Smash and all of them are very popular. There is also an entirely new generation upon our doorstep that they may draw from as well. I doubt we'll even see a newcomer, but if we do they may opt for the newer generations for variety's sake.​

​

Meowth is a fading character... his popularity and importance is ever dwindling. He may very well have missed the boat.​

​

Meowth Want: 100%​

​

One of my most wanted pre-Brawl. I actually expected him to be in the game back then... and it was pretty sad the day he was shown as a Pokeball character. I had vowed to bury my support for Meowth, as I figured it could only lead to disappointment... but you drug it all out of me.​

​

Meowth seems like the quick and nimble type of character that I would enjoy playing as. It would be cool if they gave him his ingame attacks; it would be cool if they tied him to Team Rocket in the anime. I'd love for yet another one of my ten favorite Pokemon become playable.​

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Duck Hunt Dog: 12.35%​

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This board is pretty much behind Takamaru as the Retro character... I don't think people will take this hound seriously.​

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Nominate: Phoenix Wright x5​

TAKE THAT!​

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DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE ​

​

 

[Groose]

Mewoth (Pokemon)
11.02% chance
43.38% want

Meowth was in trouble, but it wasn't quite double. His chance scores were pretty bad (placing him just behind the likes of Kamek and Professor Layton), but his want scores were pretty solid. That's right! Now he's blasting off again!

*LAUGHS* Today we'll be rating the one and only Laughing Dog. Please leave your chance and want on the Duck Hunt Dog today.

You can also predict how Demon Lord Ghirahim will do in tomorrow's match. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by -Rhythm-. Have fun with the extra five.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Duck Hunt Dog Chance: 43% There could be a chance where Sakurai picks anothe retro, I think DHD is the next best choice after Takamaru and Little Mac.
Duck Hunt Dog Want: 100% Would be real interested on his moveset plays out, he's a really appealing character.
Ghirahim Prediction: 34.%
Nominations:
x5 Tom Nook

 

[Louie G.]

Duck Hunt Dog:

Chance: 10%
Nah, not this time.

Want: 100%
The ultimate troll character, I would have a lot of fun playing with Dog.

Nominations: Magnus x5

Edit: Oh yeah, Ghirahim.
25% chance.

 

[SchAlternate]

Well, a least he didn't got blasted off... again.

Duck Hu- OK THAT'S IT! I SAW THAT SMIRK ON YOUR FACE! GET READY TO GET IT WIPED OFF! WITH BULLETS!!!
Likelihood: 14% - A bit of a nice memorable little retro character, but I'm not expecting high chances for him. It's kinda hard for me to imagine him in the fray, because I have no idea how'd he play.
Want: 30% - Nah. I'm mostly indifferent for him. A bit of comic relief might be nice, but nothing special.
GIRL? It's A HIM!
Prediction: 34% - Tricky guess, really.
Nominations
Lol, U Suk(apon)! x5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Duck Hunt Dog

Chances: 10%
He's retro. As a retro, he is indeed popular enough to work, bu I think that might be his biggest flaw too. Just seeing Sakurai's character choices in the past, I can't really see Sakurai choosing DHD over someone like Sheriff or Mach Rider who would make the majority go "WOAAAH! I REMEMBER THAT GUY!"
Just my (flawed) opinion.

Want: 0%
No.

Ghirahim; 7.5 percent
I'm not going to get the extra Noms because THERE WILL BE those people who give him 20+, but by dammit I'm sticking by my opinion.

Noms:
Ephraim x5
#EphraimBeforeAnna2013

 

[Chandeelure]

Duck Hunt Dog.
-Likelihood:8%
-Want:0%

Ghirahim:8%

-Nomination:Bandana Dee x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

As I said yesterday, being British, the NES didn't really work in the UK (we had two different versions, they only played half the game each and the games cost WAY too much... plus computer gaming was going pretty strong in the UK, at least by the time I was gaming in 89) so I have no association with Duck Hunt Dog, and while I'm very aware of his game and his part in it and Nintendo history (including the game being a loose refrence to the Laser Clay Shooting System), I'm sad to say I've never played it, and thus haven't got a grasp of the emotional impact it had on gamer. As I said yesterday I'll abstain my vote for DHD, as I know a great deal of his appeal is the old school memories which I just don't have.

That said:

Want: 40%
Considering I've no history with the guy that's fairly high, but how he appears in fan games is hilarious, and I think it'd be great to play against a dog throwing clay pidgeon disks and friggin' ducks at you. Plus I know that laugh without knowing his games, it'd be cool to have it in smash. I can't give him higher because I have no connection to the guy, and I'd prefer his slot goes to someone I do know, but I think in sheer ludicrousness he's got a lot to bring to smash.


Ghirahim: 6.05%
More out of want than actually thinking it, but someone has to score lower than Slime one of these days damnit!!


Knuckles*5

As soon as knuckles gets voted I'm straight onto Fatal Frame Protagonist! And then I guess I'll either vote Pra_Mai or I'll re-vote Slime assuming he's not been revealed by that point... It's getting to a point where there aren't many characters I'm interested in nominating... though I guess I am nominating rather obscure characters compared to many...

 

[Smasher 101]

The Dog's chances: 15% - Not the most likely retro rep, but not impossible either.
Want: 5% - Not a fan of this idea.

Ghirahim prediction: 17.27% - This is a pretty tough one to guess.

Andy x5

 

[Seraphim.]

Duck Hunt Dog

Chance: 7%
Want:0%

Ghirahim: 23% I think some might give him high percents.

Lloyd Irving x10

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Duck Hunt Dog: 1.678% DHD is more of a joke that everybody is in on not to be mistaken with a legendary character that people are itching to fight with. He could maybe be an assist trophy.... maybe. But definitely not a character.
want:3% Hes just a dog...

Ghirahim predictions: 25% I have a feeling predictions for him are going to be sorta across the boards but slightly skewed downward.

 

[Starcutter]

DuckHD: 3%
Want: 2% he's not my style. but at one point I did consider him. don't like mostly cause of that one guy that really likes him to the point that it annoys me for whatever reason (however there is also logical reasons too).

Ghirahanm: 37.5%

Nom nom noming on heaven's door
Lucario x4
Phoenix wright x1

 

[Arcadenik]

Oh yeah! Duck Hunt Dog!

Want: 100% I have always wanted him since 2002. I have been supporting him ever since I first joined NSider. They mocked me, they insulted me, they flamed me... they told me that Duck Hunt Dog can't fight... they told me that Duck Hunt Dog doesn't have a name... they told me that Duck Hunt Dog is obscure... but I kept on supporting him and refining my moveset ideas... and over time, more and more people became open-minded or supportive to the idea... some people even added Duck Hunt Dog in a fan game called Super Smash Bros. Crusade and I wasn't even involved in that. Someone even hacked Brawl to add Duck Hunt Dog.

Likelihood: 50%
I know it probably seems high... but Sakurai is running out of first-party NES characters. He already turned down Balloon Fighter (even gave the only thing that made him unique to Villager), Excitebiker (he also gave the only thing that made him unique to Wario), Urban Champion (though Sakurai will likely give the only thing that made him unique to Little Mac), Bubbles, and Sukapon. He also said characters should have limbs or something equivalent to fight - that discounts Tamagon and Diskun. Sakurai also doesn't want to include too-obscure Japan-only characters so that discounts Donbe and Goku as well. Sakurai tends to ignore America-only characters so that discounts Mike Jones (I want him too) and Mr. Stevenson. I think that leaves us with Takamaru, Mach Rider, Duck Hunt Dog, and Wild Gunman.

Takamaru seems like the most likely NES newcomer thanks to Samurai Warriors 3 and Nintendo Land. Mach Rider is possible since Sakurai did say he was his favorite NES game... though it is probable that Sakurai gave whatever ideas he had for Mach Rider to Captain Falcon. Wild Gunman is possible but I think Dillon would take whatever that made Wild Gunman unique. Duck Hunt Dog is possible since he is not a realistic puppy like Nintendog so I think he could possibly take whatever that made Nintendog unique and add that to his own moveset based on Duck Hunt gameplay.

Just my opinion.

Spoiler

This thread is designed for fans and supporters of the infamous dog from the classic shoot 'em up NES game, Duck Hunt.

These are my ideas for Duck Hunt Dog's special moves.

Duck Hunt Dog's standard special move is based on controlling a duck via the NES controller plugged into the 2P slot. The Dog simply releases a duck and then the duck flies around. The person who is playing Duck Hunt shoots the duck. There is a time limit when controlling a duck. If you take too long to shoot a duck, it will fly away after 5 seconds.

Duck Hunt Dog's side special move is based on the Clay Shooting mode. The Dog simply throws a clay pigeon like Link would throw his boomerang. The person who is playing Duck Hunt shoots the clay pigeon.

Duck Hunt Dog's up special move is inspired by ducks flying away. The Dog pulls out two ducks and hangs on to their feets as they all fly together.

Duck Hunt Dog's down special move is a high-risk, high-reward move where the Dog gets shot for laughing at the person who is playing Duck Hunt. If it is pulled successfully, the Dog could score a KO. If not, the Dog suffers 10% damage and is stunned for 3 seconds.

Duck Hunt Dog's Final Smash puts the NES Zapper in your hands as you play Duck Hunt with a Smash twist. You are given three shots and each shot can KO an opponent with one hit. Many ducks are obscuring your view - make each shot count!

Click here for a sneak preview of what Duck Hunt Dog might do if/when he gets in Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

Duck Hunt Dog
Chance: 3%
The Duck Hunt Dog's chances aren't so good in my opinion. The game "Duck Hunt" is very famous... the Duck Hunt Dog is very infamous. There is a quite a number of people who just outright hate this dog so much that there are mods and hacks of Duck Hunt where you can shoot the dog. However, he does have his fans and there is some support for him. But I think that the Duck Hunt Dog is blown away by some other potential retro characters like Takamaru and Little Mac. Who knows though? Sakurai might go crazy with this dog and make a moveset for him.
Want: 0%
No thank you.
Ghirahim Prediction: 35.82%
Funny thing is that I saw Ghirahim being stuck at 225 nominations and I was considering giving him one. Seriously though, Ghirahim is actually a tricky character to predict and I think his chances will overall be very mixed; I think that will be reflected by our scores for tomorrow as well as his overall chance percentage.
Nominations: Little Mac 3x, Captain Rainbow 2x

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Duck Hunt Dog chance=3%

Duck Hunt Dog want=0%

Ghirahim prediction=20%

Nomination=5xNeku and Shiki

 

[Starcutter]

Likelihood: 50%

there's a fine line between supporting a character and being obsessed to the point of being blinded by the sheer amount of obsession.


(I didn't dare put kamek, my #1 most wanted, anywhere near 50% because it was unreasonable. think reasonably here, ok dog?)

Spoiler

sorry if that seemed rude

 

[Arcadenik]

None taken... it is just that there aren't many NES characters Sakurai could add based on the process of elimination... as I have explained in my previous post. Also, we cannot really predict what Sakurai will do... the man added Wii Fit Trainer for crying out loud. Yes, she made sense since she was from a game that sold millions during the early Wii days... but then again... Duck Hunt Dog was from a game that sold millions during the early NES days. That's how I see it.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

DHD: 5%
Want: 5%
Ghirahim: 20% Will be giving him much lower, but there will be people who give him some decent scores
Nominations:
Ridley x 5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Duck Hunt Dog

Likelihood: 13% - He is a Retro charcter, but I don't really see Sakurai putting him into the games, seeing how he said the characters should fight in their games or something among those lines. Also, it would be very hard to implement a character who is just a dog in to a fighting game. I'm pretty sure Peta would be really mad

Want: 75% - He would be so freaking cool

Ghirahim: 27%

Primid x5

 

[Arcadenik]

He is a Retro charcter, but I don't really see Sakurai putting him into the games, seeing how he said the characters should fight in their games or something among those lines.

Villager and Wii Fit Trainer don't fight in their games. The more you know!

 

[SchAlternate]

Likelihood: 50%
I know it probably seems high... but Sakurai is running out of first-party NES characters. He already turned down Balloon Fighter (even gave the only thing that made him unique to Villager), Excitebiker (he also gave the only thing that made him unique to Wario), Urban Champion (though Sakurai will likely give the only thing that made him unique to Little Mac), Bubbles, and Sukapon. He also said characters should have limbs or something equivalent to fight - that discounts Tamagon and Diskun. Sakurai also doesn't want to include too-obscure Japan-only characters so that discounts Donbe and Goku as well. Sakurai tends to ignore America-only characters so that discounts Mike Jones (I want him too) and Mr. Stevenson. I think that leaves us with Takamaru, Mach Rider, Duck Hunt Dog, and Wild Gunman.

Takamaru seems like the most likely NES newcomer thanks to Samurai Warriors 3 and Nintendo Land. Mach Rider is possible since Sakurai did say he was his favorite NES game... though it is probable that Sakurai gave whatever ideas he had for Mach Rider to Captain Falcon. Wild Gunman is possible but I think Dillon would take whatever that made Wild Gunman unique. Duck Hunt Dog is possible since he is not a realistic puppy like Nintendog so I think he could possibly take whatever that made Nintendog unique and add that to his own moveset based on Duck Hunt gameplay.

Just my opinion.

I wouldn't limit with NES retros, though. There's a fair number of retro characters out there that appeared even after the NES, such as Prince Sable, Muddy Mole and Lip. Though I agree with your post overall (bar the somewhat high chance rating).

Also, that's a nice moveset you got. I like how his Down B is some sort of reverse Rest, only taking effect at the END rather than at the START.

 

[Opossum]

Doggy time!

Likelihood: 3%
He just doesn't really have good odds, in my opinion.

Want: 25%
A "from the fourth wall" sort of set could be pretty cool.

Predicting a 20% for Fabulous Lord Debbie.

Nominating Wolf x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Duck Hunt Dog chance: 2.1%
Although he is a great character he would be best suited as an assist trophy like Mr Resetti

Duck Hunt Dog want: 0%
I don't like the idea of a dog in Smash Bros.

Ghirahim prediction: 24.33%
He'd be great to play as.

Anthony Higgs: x5
I have had it with these m***********g metroids on this m***********g bottle ship.
(Actual quote from Other M but was cut from the game because Samuel L Jackson turned down the role)

 

[SchAlternate]

Likelihood: 13% - He is a Retro charcter, but I don't really see Sakurai putting him into the games, seeing how he said the characters should fight in their games or something among those lines. Also, it would be very hard to implement a character who is just a dog in to a fighting game. I'm pretty sure Peta would be really mad

Then again, in Smash Bros one can beat up a giant turtle, a gorilla, a monkey, an electric rat, a BABY electric rat and the likes.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Duck Hunt Dog: 17% Well he's retro, but so are quite a few other retro characters =P
Want: 45% I'm interested in seeing what they could do with him but I'm not exactly behind his inclusion
Girahim prediction: 23.5%
Mario Brothers x5
I MEAN
Omastar x3
Bulborb x2

 

[Starbound]

Doggie Chances: 0%
I know animal abuse is a shoddy reason to say a character shouldn't be in, but there's a difference between a water-spitting turtle, a humanized gorilla, a monkey with a hat and a hunting dog.

Want: 35%
Duck Hunt is a very iconic game that I'd love to see get shown off in Smash, but I really dislike the thought of punching the lights out of a dog.

Nomz: 5x Dixie Kong

 

[Arcadenik]

And there's a huge (and I mean Ridley-huge) difference between a cartoon dog like Duck Hunt Dog and a realistic puppy like Nintendog. I doubt a real-life dog could survive a gunshot to the face but a cartoon dog can.

This is where I got the idea for Down B from.

Animal cruelty isn't an issue when the game also features child abuse and violence against women.