Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[SchAlternate]

Slime the Bringer of Goo-d Puns
Likelihood: 20% - He's iconic, and a mascot, but still, he's kinda meh in terms or likelihood.
Want: 5% - Nah. I'll miss the puns, though.

Snake? Snake!? SNAAAAAAKE!!.
Prediction: 54% - I have no idea how he'll fare, to be honest

Nominations
Meowth, that's right!x5

 

[DukeofShorts]

Slime chance: 0.1%
No arms no legs.

Slime want: 0.01%
No arms no legs.

Snake prediction:60.34%
It's a toss up! He has been in Smash before so those are good chances although he's third party so those are bad chances.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Deleted member]

Before I rate Slime's chances, on an irrelevant note, I like to say rest in peace to Hiroshi Yamauchi because without him, Nintendo wouldn't be as big as it was today and we would not be here right now.
Slime
Chances: 3%
Erm... I don't feel too confident in Slime. Slime is pretty popular as it is one of Square Enix's mascots, has crossed over with the Mario series three times with the Fortune Street games (even appearing alongside Mario on the DS game's cover) and Mario Sports Mix, and even has its own spin-offs. The basic Slime is pretty much the Goomba or Waddle Dee of the Dragon Quest series, but it does have a multitude of variations of it which could be added in some sort of moveset potential. However... Slime would be rather difficult to implement as it doesn't have arms or legs and thus a moveset would be difficult to create; not impossible, but rather difficult. Square Enix is also very strict on having other companies use the rights to their characters and, if they really wanted representation in SSB4, they would probably want to put in a Final Fantasy character like a Black Mage, some other Final Fantasy characters that appeared in the Mario sports games, or even Cloud (*sigh*... I don't like him but I'll get to him when his day comes) to represent themselves. Though, I won't entirely dismiss Dragon Quest characters since Dragon Quest seems to be more homely on Nintendo consoles than Final Fantasy has been for a long time. Overall, I don't find Slime's chances to be good and, if we do get a Dragon Quest character, Slime would be an Assist Trophy rather than a fighter.
(I apologize if I got anything wrong or if I sound pretty stupid; I haven't played any Dragon Quest games)
Want: 1%
1% because I would like to see how Slime would be implemented as a fighter. Though, I MUCH rather have Sonic return in terms of third party characters. To be honest, I rather have Slime than Pac-Man, Miis, Tingle, or Cloud.
Snake Prediction: 11.4%
I don't see Snake coming back since the Metal Gear Solid series hasn't touched Nintendo consoles in a long time. (minus the MGS3 remake on the 3DS which I don't count)
Nominations: Bowser Jr. 4x, Captain Rainbow 1x

 

[DukeofShorts]

I accept it's hard to imagine, but one of the core mechanics of his own (DQ spin-off) games is picking things up and throwing them, including enemies, rather dispelling the usual grab problem armless individuals have. Infact the lack of appendages would make his animations easier if anything. Though you are entitled to your opinion ofcourse.

O, I was unaware of those games, but my opinion stays the same.

 

[Smasher 101]

Did anyone win extra nominations?

Slime's chances: 5%
Want: 0% - No interest at all, sorry.

Snake prediction: 74%

Meowth x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Slime
Chance: 3%
Third party....
Want: 1%

Prediction for Snake: 77.92%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Slime

Chance: 5%
Want: 25%
Could be interesting to see, but im mostly uninterested. He has history with nintenso, but we'll have to wait and see.

Snake: 72%

Noms:
Rayman x5 (getting close! :D)

 

[SuperBrawler]

Slime
Chance 1%
Want 0%
Not interested on Slime really.

Snake
78%

Noms
Meowth x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Slime: 1.25%
Slimes are to Dragon Quest what Goblins (or more generously, Moogles) are to Final Fantasy. From what I understand, Slimes are the most basic enemy in the series and are only playable in spinoff games. He'll probably have to wait quite some time for his day in the[collapse=-]Slimelight[/collapse].

Want: 0.5%
My knowledge of the Dragon Quest series is limited to the above paragraph, the existence of "metal" slimes, and that song that Hyadain did based on the fourth game. Not enough to interest me in the series, but at least it's pretty catchy: Hyadain - Journey to Tomorrow English Subtitles - YouTube

Snake Prediction: 77.77%

Nomination:
Captain Syrup x2
Lucina x3

 

[Xenigma]

Wow, seems my prediction was waaaaay off.

Slime - 0%
Sure, he's Dragon Quest's mascot, he's a Square Enix icon, and he's got tons of history on Nintendo consoles. He's still third party, and I don't think Sakurai's about to make a special exception for a character with as little moveset potential as Slime. If anything, I could see him as an assist trophy or stage element should a Square Enix character actually be pursued, which itself seems extremely unlikely, but for a playable character, finding a sensible way to implement him seems like a lot more trouble than he's worth. I just don't see it happening (sorry Cheezey Bites).
Want - 0% - Feels like a wasted character slot.

Snake Prediction - 50%
I have absolutely no idea what to expect here.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Wow, seems my prediction was waaaaay off.

Slime - 0%
Sure, he's Dragon Quest's mascot, he's a Square Enix icon, and he's got tons of history on Nintendo consoles. He's still third party, and I don't think Sakurai's about to make a special exception for a character with as little moveset potential as Slime. If anything, I could see him as an assist trophy or stage element should a Square Enix character actually be pursued, which itself seems extremely unlikely, but for a playable character, finding a sensible way to implement him seems like a lot more trouble than he's worth. I just don't see it happening (sorry Cheezey Bites).

Your prediction isn't that far off by the looks of things, there are plenty of low scores, just not so many 0s.

I think he actually has really good moveset potential, but I guess I'm a fan of the series so it's easy to see to me.. And don't be sorry, we all have our opinions, and while I disagree with most of them I'm enjoying seeing other peoples, especially those who write reasonings.



EDIT: Oh yeah, I came here to do music :S

Dragon Quest Overture (DQ main theme)

Blue Skies, Blue Slime (Slime's Theme kinda)

Rocket Slime Boss Battle

Rocket Slime Tank Battle (Possible Final Smash)

Rocket Slime Slival Battle

Dragon Quest 1 Overworld Theme

Dragon Quest 4 Battle Theme

Dragon Quest 5 Boss Theme

Dragon Quest 8 Final Boss Theme

Level Up (Victory Fanfare)

 

[Yams]

Slime
Likelihood: 5% I doubt Square would get a rep, and I don't see Square's Slime beating out Namcos Pac-Man, or Ubisoft's Rayman. But of Quare reps, he seems among the most likely (up there with Black Mage).
Want: 100% I love him.

Snake: 75%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Slime chance=2%

Slime want=0.2%

Snake prediction=75%

im going to vote way lower than that, but most people here drink the no-cuts Kool-Aid.

Nomination=Neku and Shiki

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Slime
Likelihood: 10%? I honestly have no idea...
Want: 5% - I know nothing about him, but he seems pretty meh.

The Legendary Solid Snake: 73% - Snake is awesome, hopefully everyone else thinks so too. "It's showtime!"

Nominations:
Since I can't vote for Snake anymore,
Mach Rider x5

 

[jaytalks]

Before I rate Slime's chances, on an irrelevant note, I like to say rest in peace to Hiroshi Yamauchi because without him, Nintendo wouldn't be as big as it was today and we would not be here right now.

Thanks for letting me know. I think we all should all hold our controllers high into the sky, and thank Hiroshi Yamauch, a man who, despite not "understanding video games" by his own admission, manage to transition a simply toy company into a burgeoning electronic game industry, and we are all better for it.

Slime:
Likelihood: 3.5%. Dragon Quest is big in Japan, so if that was Sakurai's criteria, he would be a good third party choice. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. But no hands? No matter. Slime can use items without hands.
FE Terms: Taking this shot is basically worthless. Save your attack for a better move.

Want: 100%
Dragon Quest is awesome. Slime is cool. It's connection to Nintendo is legendary, both in the past, as well as the modern era.

No hands? No MERCY!
Nominations:
Impa x 5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Slime

Chances: 2.1
Well, he is big in Japan and iconic, but is he really in a Megaman or Sonic tier?

Want: 2%
I have no slime for lousy characters like this.
*badum tssss*

Snake: 18.5%

Noms:
Ephraim x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Blue Slime

Chance - 3% - Noteworthy third party, but that's the thing: third party. I have many doubts for new third parties, though I admit that he is one of the few choices to make sense.

Want - 60% - A third party I can get behind, as he is quite possibly one of the most well known enemies in video games. Other than that legendary status though, I don't care much for him.


Snake - 82% - Just a tad less than Sonic.

Nominations
Anna X3
Ridley X2

 

[PK_Wonder]

Slime 8%

predict Snake 61%

Wonder Red x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Slime
Chance 2.5%
Sure, it's an iconic character. I remember Alan from Nintendo Power never had a staff picture but would instead have the slime plushie be his picture, and that was my main interaction with the character. Clearly means something to Nintendo.
The problem here comes from the fact that it's 1) third party and 2) Square Enix. And while I never have had a strong anger or fan rage against that company, it is not hard to notice that they have their head up their rear. Not to mention that their support of Nintendo seems to be more on the waning side than the growing one.
So yea, I don't see it happening, especially when Namco Bandai, Konami, Sega and probably even Ubisoft would all be more eager to contribute to Smash with more deserving third party candidates.

Want 1%
Yeaaaa ... not a fan.

Prediction
Snake: 93.4%
I feel a lot of people take for granted that he'll appear, but I personally think the score should not be that high for third party reasons.

Nominations
x5 Ashley

 

[Erimir]

Oh. We're back. I had a post for Bomberman, you know, like 3 weeks ago. During a brief period when the site was up, but by the time I was ready to post, the board was down again

And school came back in the meantime.

Anyway...

Slime
Popularity: As mentioned before, he's pretty popular in Japan. He's not very well-known in the US though. I knew it was associated with Dragon Quest, but I didn't know anything else about him other than that. I don't think he's particularly wanted among Smash fans specifically though.

Design: Obviously it's possible to make a design for him, but I think he'd be more difficult to design for.

Roster: Well, he's a third-party, and I think there are a limited number of slots for that. I personally would be very surprised if there were more than 4, and I think the first two are likely to go to Mega Man and Sonic. Snake and Pac-Man are also in the mix for spots 3 and 4. In addition to miscellaneous other options from other companies. And there are some pretty good alternatives from Square Enix as well.

Sakurai being a DQ fan is helpful, and CheezyBites made some decent arguments about why Square Enix might prefer Slime over a Final Fantasy rep. However, I feel a Final Fantasy rep would fit better as a giant of gaming (the huge disparity in sales was noted). Also, while Slime might be a better marketing choice for Square Enix, I think that a Final Fantasy or Kingdom Hearts rep would be a better marketing choice for Nintendo. At least when it comes to Smash Bros itself. Slime isn't going to move copies in the West. DQ getting more promotion and sales in the US could be good for both companies, but this brings me to another problem...

3rd Party/legal: Square Enix and Nintendo don't get along very well. And the only way Nintendo benefits from this arrangement is if it will boost sales of Smash, or it will result in more sales on a Nintendo console. Of course, Sakurai's personal feelings matter too, as seen with Snake (who is still basically a Sony character even after Brawl - Metal Gear being a huge part of Sony's PS4 presentation just emphasizes to me how much Snake does not belong in Smash. It's like advertising for Playstation.). But anyway, hoping that Square Enix will put forth more effort to support the Wii U seems like it would require more trust on Nintendo's part. It's safer to go with the more popular series. And besides, convincing Square Enix to release more Final Fantasy/Kingdom Hearts games on Nintendo consoles would probably be an even bigger benefit to Nintendo.

But this assumes they even agree to do anything. I think the chances of them doing so are pretty low. I'd love it if Square Enix and Nintendo would be pals, even if they didn't bring the bloated Final Fantasy main series games to Wii U. And if they'd get their heads out of their asses and realize how they've been sitting on some fabulous properties that fans would love to see more of (if done well) like Chrono, Mana, Vagrant Story, etc.

Slime chances: 2%
I think the chances of anyone from Square Enix appearing are pretty low. Saying Slime's chances are 40% is just ridiculous - it kinda implies to me that we should expect a Square Enix character more likely than not. And personally, I don't think Slime is really more likely than an FF or KH rep, although I see some marketing advantages to him.

Slime want: 18%
I'd rather see other Square Enix reps (especially a Chrono rep, but that's not gonna happen), and I'd probably rather see some other 3rd party reps before any Square Enix rep with a chance (I mean, I'd like to see Terra, but she's even less likely).

Snake prediction: 60%
I dunno. He should definitely score lower than Sonic, but I'm not sure how much lower.

Nominations:
Mike Jones x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Slime: 2%
I severely doubt Sakurai would go through such lengths to get him especially when his body shape is so...awkward to work with. There are a dozen other 3rd parties ahead of him.

Want: 5% Such an unappealing design to me.

Snake: 55%

Impa x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Slime:
Chance: 9%
His chances aren't looking goo-d. He's a third party, and I believe Black Mage is ahead of him in Square Enix's ladder.

Want: 50%
I'm neutral on his inclusion.

Snake prediction: 70%

Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 11% - Slime only gets above a ten percent due to the huge success of the Dragon Quest series in Japan, and the fact that he's had legitimate crossovers with Mario in both Fortune Street and Sports Mix. On the other hand however, he's got a debilitating case of third-party syndrome, and he doesn't really have the means to get past that. He's nowhere near as iconic as Sonic, Megaman, or even Snake, and he's got huge competition from heavy 3rd party hitters like Pac-Man and Rayman. Even within his own company, Slime would probably be passed over for a more iconic and company-important character like Black Mage of Final Fantasy.

Want: 30% - Wouldn't be against it, but there's so many more unique, important and interesting characters that take priority. Also would take up one of the very competitive 3rd party slots.

Snake Prediction: 78% - He's gonna get more negative scores than most other Brawl vets, but I feel like most people will realize that he's probably in it for the long haul now.

Nominations:
Adam Malkovich x 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Slime chances: 2%
I think the chances of anyone from Square Enix appearing are pretty low. Saying Slime's chances are 40% is just ridiculous - it kinda implies to me that we should expect a Square Enix character more likely than not. And personally, I don't think Slime is really more likely than an FF or KH rep, although I see some
marketing advantages to him.

Sorry to seem that way, but I don't think it more likely than not, I went into quite clear depths as to why I think Final Fantasy wouldn't get into Smash and Kingdom Hearts is pretty irrelevant in the overall scheme of Square Enix. I think FF gets maybe a 5% chance of a rep being generous, while KH is basically 0; that's still less than half a chance. Obviously you disagree, and your chance reflects that.

Though I too would love Chrono Break to finally be made, and maybe a few other of their properties (I wasn't a fan of Seiken Denstsu, but SaGa was great, even if I'm still not 100% on how to play Unlimited SaGa).


EDIT: Also been thinking, and I'm not sure an FF character would help sales of Smash much at all, given that the series has strayed so far from it's root it has a split following anyway, so any individual character will only hit half the fandom, and that the series is Play Station based now meaning a fair chunk of their fans won't have a Wii U or 3DS. DQ fans on the other hand are likely to have both, and though there's derision over who to include as a DQ rep so a little fandom split will occur, I think it will be notably less and probably generate more sales than an FF rep overall. Add to the fact that domestic sales are more profitable (in fact almost any sales in Japan are more profitable given the higher game prices in their market), and that the western market already has Megaman as their big 3rd party gift (probably with more sales effect overseas than FF would provide), I honestly think in terms of generating sales/profit Slime would do better than any FF character, and many 1st parties.
That said would he generate more sales than any other 3rd party? I think most, but not all. Pac-Man, due to general recognition, and Layton, due to the immense casual popularity in JP and EU, could both possibly generate more, but I'm not sure, and I don't think either has as much of an argument for being a special case in a Nintendo All-Stars fighter. Other than that, I see no serious competition for a 3rd party slot.

EDIT 2: Infact, to further bring up the Pac-Man comparison, and why I think it's only a loose possibility that it would drum up more sales than Slime I'd like to use wikipedia as a source. Dragon Quest is listed as the 20th best selling video-game franchise of all time, Pac-Man is the 29th. DQ has nearly 20 million more unit sales, I think it's safe to call him a legendary character.
In fact looking at the top 20 (or at least the ones that aren't already in) Final Fantasy (I've already argued against), Mii and Sonic (a veteran) are the only three who rank higher that look to have a chance in Smash (for violence, inelegability due to the 'characters' being real life sportsmen/cars, or being other consoles [though two of those didn't stop snake :S]). Megaman (52nd) by comparison has fewer than half as many sales as Dragon Quest, a which has fewer than half the number of games!

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Slime:

Likelihood: 5%

Want: 65% - I don't see him having much of a chance, but the potential would be great. I'd be happy to see him.

Snake Prediction: 78%

Nominations:
5x King K. Rool

 

[djgeiger0620]

Slime chances - 3%

Slime want - 0% - would much rather have Geno as a rep for Square Enix

Snake prediction - 70% - of the Brawl roster, I think he's got the least potential to make a comeback. However, I don't see Nintendo throwing in the towel for a character they've already built a move set for unless there are issues in the contract that they just can't work out. I will rate him fairly high tomorrow.

 

[Ephecus]

Slime

Chance: 1 %
Want: 5 %
Eventhough I like the DQ series I never have been a fan of Slime in particular. There are way more other 3rd party reps I'd like to see more.

Snake Prediction: 58.5 %

Nominations:
Mr. Game & Watch x 5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chances: 5%. Again, not legendary, and limited third-party slots (Four at the very most) means he has pretty much no chance/
Want: 20%. idgaf

Snake prediction: 80%. For some reason there are people who think he won't be returning even though I can repeat myself endlessly about how this isn't true and the only veterans being cut will be incredibly low-priority characters cut due to time restraints. I doubt they'd be making one of the most popular characters from the last game such a low priority.

ganon x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Slime: 0.1 Ok why are people giving him 20% and 40%? let me remind you he is THIRD PARTY! In brawl what did they do? they showed both third party characters at the beginning and there were no more. and I do not think they would do differently this time.
Want: 0% NO THIRD PARTIES WHY ARE WE EVEN RATING THEM?!?!?

Snake: 89.5% He won't be going anywhere

Nominations: x5 Bowser Jr.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I'm sure you're trolling, but this is going to the vote, so I'll bite.

Slime: 0.1 Ok why are people giving him 20% and 40%? let me remind you he is THIRD PARTY! In brawl what did they do? they showed both third party characters at the beginning and there were no more. and I do not think they would do differently this time.
Want: 0% NO THIRD PARTIES WHY ARE WE EVEN RATING THEM?!?!?

Snake: 89.5% He won't be going anywhere

Ummm.... double standards much?

Firstly Snake was revealed in the first trailer, just like Megaman; this was E3 2006, Sonic was not revealed untill august 2007, which is very clearly not the beginning!

Secondly, Snake is third party and he hasn't been revealed yet; using your (flawed) logic, he's got no chance of returning. NO THIRD PARTIES means no snake.

 

[BlitznBurst]

NO THIRD PARTIES

Snake: 89.5% He won't be going anywhere

wut

 

[colder_than_ice]

Slime
Chance: 3% - There are so many other third parties to choose from. Even if we were to get a Square rep, we'd be more likely to get a Final Fantasy character.
Want: 67% - He's so cute, how can anyone not want him in.

Snake prediction: 80%

Nominations: Chrom and Lucina team x5

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Slime: 2%
Want: 5%
Snake: 75%
Nominate:
Ridley x 5

 

[Groose]

Slime's Chances: 7.5%
Dragon Quest is huge. HUGE. If there was a clearcut character from the series that could be used in Smash, I'm sure that he/she would be considered.

I'm sorry, Cheezey; Slime is not that person. Slime is iconic; Slime is popular... but Slime lacks arms and legs. That's a hurdle that will probably prove insurmountable.

Slime Want: 65%
Not a huge fan of Dragon Quest or of Slime. But how could such a character NOT be unique and entertaining? Besides, Slime is important and iconic enough.

Snake Prediction: 68.23%
Some think he'll get the axe. The majority of people disagree.

Anthony Higgs x5
YOU GOT NO STYLE!

NO THIRD PARTIES means no snake.

He means he wants no third parties. He expects a handful, but not many.

I'll update the day later in the evening. Over the DDoS, my weekend work schedule has changed and I'm trying to account for things.

 

[Opossum]

Slime Time Live!

LikeliGOOd: 5%

He's a 3rd Party with low requests. Not much to say.

Want:40%
That being said...

Predicting a 65% for Snake

Nominating Marth x5

 

[Groose]

Slime (Dragon Quest)
6.06% chance
24.43% want

Poor lil' fellow. Slime scored the lowest in chance of anyone not named Geno, Sandbag, or Owain. When it comes to want...he only managed to beat out Owain and Sandbag; even Tingle and Mii managed to defeat him in popularity. Perhaps Slime just isn't ready for his day in the slime-light.

Today we shall rate a character who hates to be in the spotlight... primarily because spotlights generally equal death for him. The stealthy Snake has snuck into the arena today; will he sneak back into Smash? Please leave a chance and want on Snake today.

Tomorrow we have another veteran in the house; I'm sorry that this game is falling a bit flat. Please predict how Mr. Game and Watch will fare in his round tomorrow. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Legendofrob1. Oh, and Farvin111 won extra nominations yesterday, but... well... I forgot to announce them, pal. Take them today instead!

Please note: any character can now be renominated at any time. This is a rule change put in effect because of two reasons: 1) The DDoS messed things up and 2) Sudden changes could happen while characters were ineligible.

Also of notice: I'm trying to clean up the music section right now. A good deal of songs (primarily Awakening and DKC2 ones) were taken down; I'm now finding new links.

 

[Opossum]

Snake? Snake?!? SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!

Likelihood: 85%
Considering the circumstances of his inclusion, I doubt he'll be leaving, but then again: 3rd Party.

Want:100%
It's Snake!

Predicting a 98.9% for Mr. Game and Watch.

Nominating Marth x5

 

[SuperBrawler]

Snake
Chance 87

Want 100

Noms
Meowth x5

 

[Seraphim.]

Snake

Chance: 76% Kinda hard to see him being a one and done character.
Want: 67%

Bowser Jr. x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Snake's chances: 85%
Want: 90%

Mr. Game & Watch prediction: 99%

Meowth x5