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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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Forde

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jul 16, 2013
Messages
60
Zoroark

Chance: 30%

He's a unique and popular Pokemon from the last generation, but there are better candidates for who could be a newcomer for the pokemon series.

Want: 15%

I would much rather see Blaziken as a newcomer than Zoroark.

Simon Belmont Prediction: 10%

Nominations

Cloud Strife x5
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,784
Zoroark

Chance - 15% - Her best bet was the representation of Generation V. Her moment of fame is over, Genesect is now being more paraded around, the next generation is about to start, and she is likely competing with both Lucario and Mewtwo. She may bear some sliver of hope, but don't expect anything.

Want - 49.9% - Illusion is cool and definitely going to be fun and all, but I'd rather not see her replace Lucario or Mewtwo.


Simon Belmont - 9% - Snake stands in his way. What else is there to say?

Nominations
Anna X2
Starfy X2
Mr. Game & Watch X1
 

Yams

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
232
Location
AG, CA
Zoroark:
Likelihood: 15% The only pokemon newcomers I see are Mewtwo, Meowth, and maybe Eevee. And if a 5th gen pokemon is in, it'll be Genesect.
Want: 10% I never thought he was that great.

Simon Belmont: 8%

Duck hunt dog x5
 

Aqua Rock X

Smash Ace
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Zoroark

Chance: 30% - She had flavor of the month in her favor quite awhile ago and that time passed. Sakurai will more than likely want something from Gen 6.

Want: 30% - She seems interesting, but I'd rather have both Lucario and "Newtwo".

Simon Belmont Prediction: 7% - I think people are going to be negative toward him for being a 3rd Party that's not Snake, Sonic, Megaman, or Namco.

Nominations:
Lloyd Irving x5
 

AEMehr

Mii Fighter
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Zoroark
Chance - 24% (Her competition outclasses her and she also has to compete with the likes of Genesect too. It doesn't look good for her as a playable character).
Want - 80% (She's my favorite non-legendary from Gen 5 and I would really love to see how Illusion would be utilized, but it might seem better fit as a Pokeball ability).

Simon Belmont
Prediction - 23%

Nominations:
Professor Layton x5
 

Silverjay323

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
444
Location
Atlanta,Georgia
Zoroark:

Chance: 23.2% It seems to be of the more likely 5th gen reps tbh
Want: 67% Its one of the more interesting non-legendary pokemon that came out of gen 5. I'd love to see it in.

Simon Belmont: 27.1%

Nominations:
Ninten x4
Lloyd Irving x1
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Seamus?!
harry potter image that i'm not going to post because it would stretch the page

OMG, haha. Day made. Day made. I thank you, sir.


Especially with there being all these lame rules and it being one character a day.
Hey, that's pretty much the point of Rate Their Chances. Everyone rates the official character of the day; at the end of the day, I come by and average out the votes, then rank the characters in an archive. When we reach release, we see just how wrong we were.

Please note that I can't keep a running average of all of the characters if we're doing many different characters a day everyday; my calculations program can only hold so much data at a time, and I only have so much time in a day. Besides, if we only do a set character a day, we can discuss that character in more depth than if we did a dozen characters a game.

I've seen a variant of the game that utilizes THREE characters a day, but I find it rather poor in that things are pretty much over in three or four months. There really are only so many characters one can rate before you hit the point of ridiculousness. The fun doesn't last until launch... which is rather unlike what I hope will happen here.

tl;dr Sorry you don't like the game as it is, but the core rules are the core rules and they're here to stay. If you keep rating random characters instead of the one in the title, I will have to ban you from the game and report you. As of now, feel free to play the right way or at least check out our archive and music section that are both on the OP.
 

colder_than_ice

Smash Lord
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Jan 7, 2013
Messages
1,331
Zoroark
Chance: 31% - Well he's definitely in realm of possibility, I believe the reveal of 6th generation Pokemon really hurts his chances.
Want: 88% - I can easily see him being one of my favourite characters.

Simon Belmont prediction: 2% - As cool (or awkward) as it would be to have the entire Captain N trio together, he's still a long shot.

Nominations: Professor Layton x5
 

RVD_fan

Smash Ace
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Zoroark: 20%

At one point I thought it was the surest bet for a newcomer, but as others have said, it's an issue of timing. At this point, I don't see any way Mewtwo doesn't return and I highly doubt we're getting Mewtwo, Lucario, and Zoroark. While they could play around with Zoroark and have it embrace its fox-like qualities (hunch over and use its front legs to move) to move away from the other two, Lucario already has the moveset and is just as popular now as Zoroark ever was (Zoroark wasn't even that prominent in the games). Lucario was heavily featured in the BW2 hype and (spoilers) just knocked Ash out of the Unova League in the anime. On top of that, Zoroark still competes with Genesect if they did want to give 5th gen a rep. With few new characters getting in, I see Zoroark getting etched out.

Want: 50%

I would have really liked to see what they could've done with Zoroark, using it's illusion ability to cloak as another player would be a fun strategy to play around with, especially in battles with multiple opponents. Still, they've already been pretty generous to Pokemon and I wouldn't like to see fans of other franchises have their favorites pushed out.

Simon Belmont: 1.7%

Om nom noms:
Ghirahim x5
 

Groose

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I'll save my commentary on Zoroark for later. Let me just say that it will be long and in-depth... and not in line with the general consensus so far.

Ah. Well, she's the star of one of the movies, which is really the relevant part. I guess Lucario isn't legendary either. The point is they're promoted above other Pokemon and got feature films.

Exactly, though Zoroark is even closer to legendary status than Lucario because of the difficulties of obtaining one. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zoroark was event only until BW2?

im here cuz i heard it's a madhouse here
Nope. The community here keeps things pretty orderly; I haven't reported a single problem to the mods in the three weeks I've been running things. We usually just get a little speculation here and there on the character of the day. Though... Sandbag and Ridley both did toe the line of debate and flaming.
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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Zoroark: 35%

If Sakurai can make Illusion do something cool then sure, I can see it happening.

Want: 55%
Pretty cool guy, err gal.

Nomz: Palutena x5
 

PK_Wonder

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Messages
1,179
Zoroark - 20% I consider Mewtwo a near-lock. After him there may or may not be a newcomer Pokemon character, but Zoroark has a high chance among them.

predict Simon - 19%, certainly one of the more likely third parties, but not the most likely.

Victini x10
 

SmashShadow

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Zoroark: 22%
He has Genesect, Victini, and Mewtwo to compete with. He's on the short list of ones that could actually make it into the game. Mewtwo will almost certainly get in so it's a matter of whether Sakurai wants to add another pokemon character and if he surpasses the competition. Not to mention that his gen is now 1 gen old.
Want: 65%
He's kinda meh but not completely.

Simon Belmont: 6%

3x Vaati
2x impa
 

Good Guy Giygas

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Zoroark
Likelihood: 15% I think Mewtwo is almost guaranteed to be included (whether it's the new form or the old one). If not Mewtwo, it's in the running with Genesect and some others.
Want: 20% I don't know a whole lot about the guy, but he looks kinda cool.

Simon: 6%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5
 

Starcutter

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Zoroark: 45% there's more then enough better competition for the 5th slot.
Want: 40%

Simon 6%

Nominations
Kamek x5
 

SchAlternate

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Zoroark
Likelihood: 32% - As a failed mascot of Gen V, I just don't see her being likely. She also compete's with the likes of Mewtwo and Lucario.
Want: 15% - While the Illusion mechanic sounds interesting, I really don't want her to take up a slot that could be used by someone else.

Simon
Prediction: 38% - I fracking love the guy, but I don't think anyone else feels the same. Some people do, though...

Nominations
Genesect (x5)
 

AfricanSanta

Smash Cadet
Joined
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Messages
41
Zoroark
Chances- 15%- Genesect has a better chance for a 5th gen rep than him. His main argument was being flavor of the month, but he no longer is.
Want- 64%- I'd rather have Genesect of Mewtwo, but he'd still be pretty cool.

Simon Belmont prediction- 7%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2
 

PK_Wonder

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I'm surprised everyone wants to rerate Palutena so badly. I think her original score is perfect, and literally the only development that has happened that could alter her score is the unveil of Reset Bomb Forest stage. It has Viridi, but it doesn't say much for Palutena either way.

In general, every participant deserves a pat on the back, I think, collectively, we've done a very realistic job with all of our ratings. I can't really say anyone is that overrated, except maybe Lucario, Waddle Dee, Dillon, and Krystal each by like only two points. Only one character stands severely underrated in my mind, and that's Toad. I believe he is the most likely Mario character by a landslide. He is one of the most iconic characters in video game history, and he is in a major playable role in the upcoming Mario 3D World (along with just about every other recent Mario game.)
 

---

がんばってね!
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Zoroark - 35%
Want- 60%
+ Fairly popular
+/- Arguably the mascot for Gen 5 (still a tad early, there's also Zorua, Reshiram/Zekrom)
- Tough competition in Mewtwo and arguably Lucario
- Gen 6 has arguably taken over it's spotlight
 

Starbound

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I'm surprised everyone wants to rerate Palutena so badly. I think her original score is perfect, and literally the only development that has happened that could alter her score is the unveil of Reset Bomb Forest stage. It has Viridi, but it doesn't say much for Palutena either way.
I think I've been the only one voting for Palutena, and that's because everyone else I really care about has been rated before and isn't up for renomination yet :p
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Exactly, though Zoroark is even closer to legendary status than Lucario because of the difficulties of obtaining one. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Zoroark was event only until BW2?
Yes sir, you are correct. You cannot obtain Zoroark, or even it's pre-evolution Zorua, unless you have event Pokemon such as a Shiny Suicune, Entei, or Raikou in Zoroark's case or an event Celebi in Zorua's case. In B2/W2, you get a Zorua that you can train and you can evolve it into a Zoroark. However, you can never catch either Zorua or a Zoroark at all in B/W or B2/W2.

While some may say that does hurt Zoroark's chances, I do believe the main issue is how SSB4 is being released with Gen VI being released some time before SSB4 which most of us covered. Even then, I don't think Gen VI will get any reps which I will explain if we ever get to a day where we rate a Gen VI Pokemon.
 

Mr. Mumbles

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Messages
793
Zoroark Chances: 25% It's always hard to say with Pokemon. Yet, I think it is very obvious that Mewtwo is more likely then Zoroark. That said though Pokemon gets more slots then most it can only have so many reps. Considering Sakurai isn't fond of cutting characters, Zoroark has some fierce competition. Zoroark is interesting and has a certain degree of popularity to be sure, but word on the street is he never made the big time the way Lucario did. Further gen 6 being on the horizon doesn't exactly help his chances. But despite all of that he is the closest thing we have for a Lucario in Gen 5 so he still has a decent shot.

Zoroark Want: 65% I'm not exactly sure how he'd work, but I am confident Sakurai could work out something interesting for his whole illusion ability thing. I'm not exactly a huge supporter, but he could be pretty neat.

Simon Belmont: 4% He's third party. Also while he could get in because Snake did, he still doesn't exactly seem to belong. While I think his real chances are lower still some hopefuls will bring up the vote I think.
 

Al-kīmiyā'

Smash the State
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Zoroark chance=7%

Zoroark want=7%

Simon Belmont prediction=10%

Nomination=5xVaati
 

Erimir

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I think I've been the only one voting for Palutena, and that's because everyone else I really care about has been rated before and isn't up for renomination yet :p
Personally, I'd at least want to get through all the veterans before we start going back on people we've already done... Do none of them interest you?
 

Gingerbread Man

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Its been a while, I should start keeping up again. :/

Zoroark=5%
want=20% meh, never played the game with him in it.

Simon belmont prediction = 15%
Nominations:
Robinx5
 

neosam23

Smash Rookie
Joined
Jul 30, 2013
Messages
15
Zoroark Chance: 5%.
He has little to no chance at getting into Smash at all. I honestly don't want Zoroark to be in the game, and I doubt they'll let in another pokemon that is similar to Mewtwo or Lucario. I'd would rather Victini, anyway. Victini is awesoooooome!

Want: 0%.
No thanks. His moveset wouldn't be anything special.

Simon Belmont Prediction: 23%
I haven't played any Castlevania, but I doubt he'll make it, being a Third-Party Character.

Nominations:
Victini x5
 

Diddy Kong

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Zoroark

Chance: 20%
Want: 40%

Mewtwo is heaps more likely and wanted. While it's not a bad idea perse to add Zoroark as a Lucario-like addition, it's chances aren't too great anymore. Never has Zoroark reached the popularity of Mewtwo or Lucario, or heck, even Jigglypuff in her prime, and perhaps only Ivysaur is less popular than Zoroark, cause Squirtle and Charizard truimph it easily as well. Not to mention, Gen 6 is on it's way. Mewtwo's Awakening form is much more likely to be the 'new generation Pokémon character'. Zoroark could be interessting however. A Dark Type would be cool, as well as it's Illusion ability, but really, I can't see it happening. Still, Zoroak > Victini though

Impa x 5
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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Zoroark

Likeliness: 32%
It has competition from Mewtwo and Lucario with some minor competition from Genosect, possibly a new trainer, or a 6th gen rep. However, as the clock ticks further, it's chances slowly decreases. I would have given it a 60% last year.

Want: 53%
It would have an interesting gimmick and probably wouldn't be a clone.

Simon Belmont
28.9%

Nomie noms:
Nightmare x5
 

Groose

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I'm surprised everyone wants to rerate Palutena so badly. I think her original score is perfect, and literally the only development that has happened that could alter her score is the unveil of Reset Bomb Forest stage. It has Viridi, but it doesn't say much for Palutena either way.

In general, every participant deserves a pat on the back, I think, collectively, we've done a very realistic job with all of our ratings. I can't really say anyone is that overrated, except maybe Lucario, Waddle Dee, Dillon, and Krystal each by like only two points. Only one character stands severely underrated in my mind, and that's Toad. I believe he is the most likely Mario character by a landslide. He is one of the most iconic characters in video game history, and he is in a major playable role in the upcoming Mario 3D World (along with just about every other recent Mario game.)

I think I've been the only one voting for Palutena, and that's because everyone else I really care about has been rated before and isn't up for renomination yet :p

I can confirm that ThatWasPeachy is the only one revoting Palutena. Still, at the rate they're going, it's going to take a few weeks, so its wise of them to start now.

Personally, I don't see a point in revoting a character yet. As such, I'm not going to start renominating people for another month or so. We really haven't received any groundbreaking new leads. I suppose I do see the point in renominating Ridley, though... he did lose to K. Rool in terms of chance by less than a tenth of a percent. I suppose Ridley fans aren't too happy about that! :awesome:

Yes sir, you are correct. You cannot obtain Zoroark, or even it's pre-evolution Zorua, unless you have event Pokemon such as a Shiny Suicune, Entei, or Raikou in Zoroark's case or an event Celebi in Zorua's case. In B2/W2, you get a Zorua that you can train and you can evolve it into a Zoroark. However, you can never catch either Zorua or a Zoroark at all in B/W or B2/W2.

While some may say that does hurt Zoroark's chances, I do believe the main issue is how SSB4 is being released with Gen VI being released some time before SSB4 which most of us covered. Even then, I don't think Gen VI will get any reps which I will explain if we ever get to a day where we rate a Gen VI Pokemon.

It's good to see another Pokemon buff here! I was almost certain I was correct, but the vast number of the promotions that they did in early Gen V made it difficult for me to remember them individually.

I'll happily await your analysis on a Gen VI Pokemon when we get there. I think Sylveon has about 90 noms now, so it shouldn't be too long. And does your lack of Gen VI reps theory include Mewtwo, as his proponents often use his new Gen VI forme as an argument?

x5 Chancellor Cole (The Legend of Zelda)
I appreciate you (among others) putting the name of the series when proposing new characters. Sometimes I'm oblivous... and then you usually get placeholder titles like (I Dunno) and (WHO?).

Though I'm very well aware of who Chancellor Cole is :psycho:. Outside of Smash and Pokemon, Zelda is my fandom of choice, hence my name and avatar here. Heck, I've even cosplayed Groose before... :p
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
It's good to see another Pokemon buff here! I was almost certain I was correct, but the vast number of the promotions that they did in early Gen V made it difficult for me to remember them individually.

I'll happily await your analysis on a Gen VI Pokemon when we get there. I think Sylveon has about 90 noms now, so it shouldn't be too long. And does your lack of Gen VI reps theory include Mewtwo, as his proponents often use his new Gen VI forme as an argument?
Meh, I wouldn't blame you for that.

It does involve Mewtwo because I do believe that having a new forme in Gen VI does help boost Mewtwo's chances in some way, but I don't think the same can be said for every other Pokemon in Gen VI. And thank you, I am glad that you are willing to hear my analysis! :)
 

Groose

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Zoroark's Chances: 35%
The roster was decided about a year ago, right? Wasn't that exactly when Zoroark hit his peak in popularity? While the Sixth Gen was probably still in conceptualization and Genesect was just starting his rise, Zoroark was on nearly everyone's top ten list. If you're so confident that Sakurai took notice of our pleas for Mewtwo... then why don't you think he head of our pleas for the then-mascot, Zoroark?

May I also note that he'd be very easy to make into a fighter... provided they don't add his illusion ability.

Zoroark Want: 5%
"But he's so unique, his Illusion ability could..."

No. Stop. Stop right there. I play Pokemon competitively. I know how Zoroark's Illusion ability works, I've used it many times to great success.

Zoroark disguises himself as another person on his own team, yet he retains his own moves, stats, and typing. Your opponent tries to counter whoever they think Zoroark is... which fails because they're not accounting for the fact that it's actually Zoroark. Usually, you force a switch, which allows you a setup turn; at the very least, the opponent does a move that pretty much wastes a turn.

This is a very novel strategy. I love Illusion; the mindgames it creates are spectacular. Zoroark has been in my rotation of Pokemon that I've regularly used since the beginning of the Gen V metagame.

But Illusion is impractical in Smashbros. Completely impractical. COMPLETELY IMPRACTICAL.

Illusion works by copying the appearance of another, but retaining Zoroark's own moves. Now, assume that you start the battle looking like Mario. All of your animations look like Mario's... but your hitboxes and attacks are still those of Zoroark's. See how this could present a very difficult technical problem, especially when you factor in that Zoroark has to copy over fourty different fighters? Even if it's possible to do, it's a lot of work for a single fighter. Keep in mind that AI must also be programmed to deal with Zoroark... something Pokemon games weren't ever able to do.

Furthermore, the ability wouldn't have anywhere near the effect it has in the Pokemon metagame. In Pokemon, the entire point is tricking you opponent so you get a free setup turn or a free KO blow. After you use a move or two, it's obvious that you're Zoroark in disguise; the charade is over and finished. That's okay in Pokemon... a few setup moves or a tricky revenge kill can make all the difference and change the course of a match.

But in Smash... your start the battle pretending your Mario. You manage to get a short combo in because your opponent doesn't know that you're actually Zoroark. But then... they know you're Zoroark. The charade is over. Yeah. It's now basically a normal match. All of that difficult programming... for a little quick surprise combo at the beginning of a match. Oh, joy!

And I present to you another problem. Smash Bros on the Wii U will presumably be played on a single television screen. And if your opponent knows you picked Zoroark as your character... oh joy! There is absolutely no point of the Illusion ability.

But getting back to why I'm giving Zoroark a 5% want. I think that if Zoroark does get in, it will take far more time and effort than either Mewtwo or Lucario. Even if this effort succeeds in recreating the Illusion ability, it just won't be as big or dramatic as it is in Pokemon; they'd have to do Illusion in a different way or not include it at all. I'd rather not have Zoroark without Illusion; I'd rather not have Zoroark with a version of Illusion that doesn't match the games; I'd rather not have Zoroark with a fun gimmick if he takes up a lot of time and effort.

Two of my top five Pokemon of all time are Mewtwo and Lucario. Zoroark ranks in my top twenty-five... but I'd be mad if he came in and took over from one of my absolute favorites, offering a half-baked gimmick and a smaller roster in exchange.

By the way, feel free to respond to me about this. This opinion of mine differs from the norm and I'd be willing to debate it with you. But I play Pokemon competitively; all last year I was cringing when people were clamoring for Zoroark "because his Illusion would be a great thing to differentiate him."

Simon Belmont Prediction: 5.31%
I seriously doubt he'll inspire much support... this time around, at least.

Medusa x5
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the light!

DAY OVER
RETURN OF GROOSE
 

TumblrFamous

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Oh, I missed the past few days. Anyway, I agree what you said about Zproark. His Illusion ability, which defines who he is, would be near difficult to implement. However, I came up with something. What if he used his ability in his final smash? Transform into an opponent and use their Final smash? It'd be unpredictable and exciting. Any thoughts?
 

Cheezey Bites

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Oh, I missed the past few days. Anyway, I agree what you said about Zproark. His Illusion ability, which defines who he is, would be near difficult to implement. However, I came up with something. What if he used his ability in his final smash? Transform into an opponent and use their Final smash? It'd be unpredictable and exciting. Any thoughts?

That's not what illusion is; that's imposter. That would be great if Ditto was a playable 'character' (though if he were he should transform traight away in the intro sequence), but that's not how Zoroark works.
 

Groose

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Zoroark (Pokemon)
20.23% chance
39.42% want

It turns out that Zoroark was little more than a flavor of the month after all. Despite being one nearly everyone's top tens in want and chance last year, he failed to make much of a splash here today. Oh well, there's always a chance of a revote.

Today we return to the realm of the third-parties; our contestant is Simon Belmont, famed nemesis of Dracula and main man of Konami's Castlevania franchise. Simon says please leave your chance and want on Simon today.

Finally, tomorrow will be dedicated to the Masked Man. Please predict how people will rate the Masked Man in tomorrow's game. doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Gigabowserxyz.

And before I go, I’d like to announce that Toon Link has once again been added to the nominations list. When any character receives 100 nominations for a re-vote, they will be voted again alongside whatever character we would normally rate for the day. The list of those eligible for revotes can be found at the bottom of the nominations list.
 

Opossum

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Simon Belmont time!

Likelihood: 5%
If we're getting a Konami character, I'm willing to bet it will be Snake.

Want: 50%
I'd definitely be disappointed if he took Snake's place, but he'd at least be interesting (more so than Bomberman, at least).

Predicting a 7.68% for Masked Man

Nominating Falco x5
 

MargnetMan23

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Simon: 18%
Want: 90%
Masked Man: 3.3% It is extremely unlikely for us to get another mother/earthbound character and it's not like this is the completely obvious first pick either
Mr. Game And Watch x5
 

Groose

Smash Champion
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Oh, I missed the past few days. Anyway, I agree what you said about Zproark. His Illusion ability, which defines who he is, would be near difficult to implement. However, I came up with something. What if he used his ability in his final smash? Transform into an opponent and use their Final smash? It'd be unpredictable and exciting. Any thoughts?

That would be interesting... but as Cheezey Bites said, that's more of something Ditto would do. Speaking of which... Ditto would be veeeery easy to make and would be decent for expanding the roster... hmmm....

Oh, and welcome back!
 
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