Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Deleted member]

Tingle...
Chance: 5%
He has two games... both of which weren't released in America. One major thing that works very well against him is his major hatebase. While he is reoccurring in the Zelda series, that isn't enough to save him. When it comes to requests, I haven't seen many for Tingle and I've seen more for characters like Ghirahim and Toon Zelda. While he does have some fanbase in Japan, that alone won't really save him. However, I do see him having some moveset; his up special move would involve him using his balloon and he could attack with Rupees. As a fighter, it's not going to happen; as an Assist Trophy, it's going to happen again.
EDIT: I also believe that the Zelda series is just fine with three or four main representatives: Link, Zelda/Sheik, and Ganondorf and maybe Toon Link.
Want: 0%
I hate Tingle as a character so much. He just annoys me in Majora's Mask and Wind Waker.

Sandbag Prediction: 1.7%
I can't wait for the results of this one. He'll probably get higher than Owain. (I've read of his low score in chance in the original post)

Nominations:
Ganondorf 5x

 

[thisismatt]

Tingle's chances - 30% He's very popular in Japan and quite frankly I think is the most likely Zelda newcomer
Want - 65% I actually like him and would enjoy having him
Lucina prediction - 5.01%
Noms: Mach RIder x2, Saki Amamiya x2, Omastar

 

[Cheezey Bites]

He has two games... both of which were released in Japan only.

I own Freshly-Picked Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland in English, so nope. Just because it didn't make stateside didn't mean it never left Japan. I remind you how Helerin got an assist trophy in brawl, and he didn't even have the Zelda connection.

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

Tingle

Chance 10% - I just dont think sakurai will look upon this guy as anything more than his AT status. Sure hes one of the more recurring zelda characters with a few games of his own, but even then there are more interesting characters from the series not yet in a smash bros game. And with nintendo knowning he isnt beloved by all (as shown by his absence till WWHD), i just dont see it happening. Some could say japan loves him, but at this point and what has been shown by a few users on the japanese fanbase is that they dont even care, and hes hardly mentioned among character choices at all.

Want 0% - I have no interest in this character and i never have, sure hes quirky and weird, but that doesnt instantly make him interesting or a character I would want to play as. There are far more interesting and magical characters monsters and creatures from zelda i would rather see than this guy. And since he doesnt bring much to the table, i dont really want him at all.

 

[Deleted member]

I own Freshly-Picked Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland in English, so nope. Just because it didn't make stateside didn't mean it never left Japan. I remind you how Helerin got an assist trophy in brawl, and he didn't even have the Zelda connection.

Oh. Sorry. I wasn't aware that an English translation existed or that it was released in Europe (I forgot the latter detail), but I do know that it wasn't released in America. Also, I don't think that having a game that wasn't released in America would hurt a character's chances of being a character or an Assist Trophy majorly (Marth is playable in Melee and Lucas is playable in Brawl regardless). By hey, it's cool that you have that game!

 

[cephalopod17]

Tingle...

Chance: 20%
He is a reoccurring Zelda character and has a decent fanbase in Japan. Big Hatebase in non-Japan. I would say if Toon Link is cut then Toon Zelda and/or Toon Sheik (Tetra) is virtually impossible. Faces stiff completion from Classic Link and Impa.

Want: 40%
He'd be a...interesting character. Pre-E3 2013 I'd want him more than WFT.

Sandbag Prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Dillon x4
Robin (Awakening Avatar) x1

 

[Starcutter]

Tingle: 70% his recurring status in zelda is mostly the reson why he's here. then again, that one merchant guy has also been in a lot of games...

Want: 70%

Sandbag: 10%

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Tingle, huh?
Chance: 1%
Brawl had the correct amount of reps. There are characters that are more likely than Tingle. Tingle is not likely but still very very slimy possible.
Want: 0%
No thank you!

Prediction for Sandbag: .71%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Tingle, huh?
Chance: 1%
Brawl had the correct amount of reps. There are characters that are more likely than Tingle. Tingle is not likely but still very very slimy possible.
Want: 0%
No thank you!

Prediction for Sandbag: .71%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

Well, Tingle is rather slimy, I'll give you that

 

[TheCreator]

I'm noticing alot of people that have low want for him, don't seem to know a lot about him/ have a very low prediction for him.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Tingle:

Chance: 25%
Want: 0%

He could hypotentially make it. Then again, he's got a lot of things going against him. His international popularity being one. His biggest chance being in Brawl being second. He's not often seriously requested, and since his last game was pretty much Baloon Fight ft. Tingle and the Villager already having a Baloon Flight based Up B, I'm just not picturing it happening. Not even if Toon Link is cut. He still faces fierce competition by Zelda characters with actual potential / popularity as: Toon Zelda, Ghirahim and Impa. All who are more important and popular than Tingle.

 

[---]

No. The "missed their chance in _____" argument was not, is not and won't in the future be a decent argument for or against a characters inclusion. The argument could've been made that Diddy missed his chance in Melee considering how dormant the DK series was on the Gamecube, but that simply wasn't a case. The "missed their chance" argument is especially irrelevant when you consider the fact that they've tackled all of the big Nintendo all-stars in Brawl - so characters that may not have had as much of a chance before now have far less to compete with in terms of priorities. See: Villager.

Those were my own personal thoughts and summary rather than an argument I was trying to make.

That said, Tingle is by no means a Diddy Kong within the Zelda series (your other example, Villager, is a completely different story), so he does fit in rather well with the other characters few are betting on, who people did have high hopes for Pre-Brawl, such as a F-Zero character, Ray from Custom Robo, Lyn, Micaiah, Krystal, and a Non-Gen 5/6 Pokemon.

 

[TheCreator]

He still faces fierce competition by Zelda characters with actual potential / popularity as: Toon Zelda, Ghirahim and Impa. All who are more important and popular than Tingle.

Toon Zelda maybe, the other two far from compete with Tingle in liklihood. Ghirahim is about as likely as Zant was prebrawl, and Impa....just no. She's really just a character who some fans wanted and every explanation for her being likely is just fans grasping at straws then exaggerating it, but it works because people like her.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Diddy probably had Rare-buyout related issues pre-Melee. Then again, other big names / obvious additions as Wario and MetaKnight / King Dedede also didn't make it. So there's that.

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Tingle

Likelihood: 25 %

While there is not that much going for him, he does have a couple of games to himself right? And he is important to the zelda series...but other then that, he doesn't seem to be that popular.

Want: 0%

I just...don't like Tingle. I don't hate or think he is bad, I just don't personally like him. :/

Sandbag: 5%

 

[colder_than_ice]

Tingle
Chance: 27% - His hate base may be much bigger than his fan base, but he does have his own games and a small cult following.
Want: 9% - I never understood the appeal.

Sandbag prediction: 1%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[MargnetMan23]

I don't have much personal connection to this so more uninterested ratings :D
24% *shrugs*
Want: 32% *shrugs*
Sandbag: 100% I mean... .67%
Nomz:
Omastar x3
G&w x2

 

[Ghirahilda]

Tinlge could be a good character with some potential moveset if you search (here: http://zeldawiki.org/Tingle_Tuner)
Chances I think 15%, too many Zelda reps
Want: 20%
Not my most wanted character, but I think on great moves for him

Sandbag prediction: 2,75%

I nominate Alph x5

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Tingle Chance: 5% Maybe I should be nicer to Tingle since I want Krystal in, but despite his cult following... I just don't see it. While I think 4 reps is possible for any series, I don't think any other then Pokemon and Mario will ever get more than 4. Also while he is reoccuring he hasn't had nearly as many appearances as toad, so I don't think he is near as likely. He just seems too much like a joke character even if he could have an interesting move set.

Tingle Want: 3% Well at least Zelda gets another rep and I'm a huge Zelda fan. That said, I really hate Tingle.

Sandbag Prediction: 2%... because that's how I take my milk.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Toon Zelda maybe, the other two far from compete with Tingle in liklihood. Ghirahim is about as likely as Zant was prebrawl, and Impa....just no. She's really just a character who some fans wanted and every explanation for her being likely is just fans grasping at straws then exaggerating it, but it works because people like her.

I think you're out of your mind. Ghirahim was way more compelling than Zant, and Impa has been in a ton of games. Tingle is ****ing annoying, and no matter how much you say(unsourced) his hatebase is exaggerated, you can see just in this thread how many people dislike him.

 

[SmashShadow]

Tingle: 7%
Not a very important character story wise, has only had non-fighting roles so far in Smash, villager has balloons, 3-4 other possible Zelda reps, low request and a decent hatebase. He does have his couple of games but their not very noteworthy. He's also the most recurring character in the Zelda franchise that is not in smash. Still, he more than likely not joining us as a playable character.

Want: 30% I'd want more important/interesting characters in before him such as Vaati and Impa.

Sandbag: 0.07%

3x Vaati
2x Impa

 

[CalumG]

I think you're out of your mind. Ghirahim was way more compelling than Zant, and Impa has been in a ton of games. Tingle is ****ing annoying, and no matter how much you say(unsourced) his hatebase is exaggerated, you can see just in this thread how many people dislike him.

Ghirahim quite clearly has 0% chance... Impa is debatable, but they're not in the business of putting in one-time-only characters into Smash so Ghirahim is a zero argument. Also, if I may say: this thread certainly isn't a good representation of how many people dislike him, because it's a thread on a Smash forum - people's opinions on websites such as these are heavily skewed (compared to the wider proportion of people who play Smash). Case in point, the sheer amount of people who want characters such as Geno, whereas out in the real world, a majority of Smash players would have no idea who he is. Peoples support and hatred for characters get severely twisted and exaggerated on sites like these, so they can't really be used to distinguish just how large his supposed 'hatebase' is.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Also, if I may say: this thread certainly isn't a good representation of how many people dislike him, because it's a thread on a Smash forum - people's opinions on websites such as these are heavily skewed (compared to the wider proportion of people who play Smash). Case in point, the sheer amount of people who want characters such as Geno, whereas out in the real world, a majority of Smash players would have no idea who he is. Peoples support and hatred for characters get severely twisted and exaggerated on sites like these, so they can't really be used to distinguish just how large his supposed 'hatebase' is.

I agree, but in the absence of any other data, this is what we have. If he can give some source about his hatebase being exaggerated, then we can use that. I'm just going on the data I have available and what I've heard anecdotally at zeldauniverse.net/forum.

 

[TheCreator]

I say it's exaggerated because there are people saying that America in whole hates Tingle. And that is clearly not true. While a lot of people dislike him, there are many people who like him as a character as well. Albeit no as many as those who DISlike him, but that is my point.
I've lost touch with Zelda Universe as of late...they typically don't like Tingle I'm guessing?
Also, Ghiraham being more compelling than Zant really matters zilch. And Impa....tbh I think the whole Impa thing has gotten out of hand. I think it was just a bunch of fanboys who grasped at some straws for a character argument of theirs, and due to there being quite a bit of support the idea stuck around. I still think it's ridiculous.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Tingle: 3%
want: 0.5%

Sandbag: 0.8%

x5 zoroark

 

[Seraphim.]

Tingle: 10%

Want: 1%

Sandbag: 5%

Ike x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Ghirahim quite clearly has 0% chance... Impa is debatable, but they're not in the business of putting in one-time-only characters into Smash so Ghirahim is a zero argument.

Are you sure about that?

-Ice Climbers
-Pit (okay, plus a very minor Game Boy release)
-Ness
-Lucas
-Zero Suit Samus
-Ganondorf (at the time of Melee)
-Roy
-Pichu (at the time of Melee)
-Lucario (at the time of Brawl)

 

[CalumG]

Are you sure about that?

-Ice Climbers
-Pit (okay, plus a very minor Game Boy release)
-Ness
-Lucas
-Zero Suit Samus
-Ganondorf (at the time of Melee)
-Roy
-Pichu (at the time of Melee)
-Lucario (at the time of Brawl)

All irrelevant. Firstly, there's a difference between a main character who's only had one game (Ice Climbers, Pit), and a bit character who's only been in one game of a long-standing franchise. Mother and Fire Emblem characters don't fall under the rule because Fire Emblem and Mother, by the very nature of their series, have very few re-occurring characters as opposed to other franchises with more static all-star casts. Zero-Suit has technically been in every Metroid (hello, it's just Samus at the end of the day - remember the Justin Bailey cheat?), Ganondorf was the main Zelda villain since day 1, and Pokemon doesn't have characters that could be considered "main" in any sense so they choose based on iconic status and based on suggestions by the Pokemon Company.

 

[PrincessAzula]

Tingle: 1%

I don't think LoZ will get another rep this time around, and even if they did I don't think Tingle would be the next character.

Want: 0%
No.

Sandbag Prediction: 0%
His lack of any appendages might hinder his chances. Also, I don't view the Sandbag as an "Nintendo All-Star".

 

[Smasher 101]

Tingle's chances: 10%
Want: 10%

Sandbag prediction: 0.33%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Tingle
10%. Tingle' popular in Japan, as many people have stated, but Zelda very rarely gets characters requested, most people seeming fine with the Triforce group and a younger Link. That being said, he is one of the few reoccuring Zelda characters not yet represented in Smash(as a character anyway) alongside Impa.

Want: 20% I don't hate Tingle, but I'm not exactly a huge fan either.

Sandbag prediction: 2.51%

Nominate Dillon X 5

 

[Starbound]

9% chances for Tingle

Putting in a character most people have a massive dislike for is different than putting in a character no one expects.

Predicting 4% for sandbag. inb4 some people do 99% troll votes

 

[FalKoopa]

For anyone curious, here's the link to the original "Rate their Chances"thread. Note that the likelihood and want numbers are rated out of 5, though.
http://smashboards.com/threads/rate-and-discuss-their-chances-closed.325516/

Comparing the likelihood and want scores for characters then and now is interesting.

 

[Erimir]

These scores are higher than I expected.

Popularity: He's somewhat popular in Japan, but his fans are greatly outnumbered by his haters in the US. Weirdo middle aged man trying to be a fairy is not really a concept that appeals to Americans.

For those who are saying maybe it's just people on this board who hate him... No. Nintendo has commented on how much Americans dislike Tingle. Some major Western gaming sites (like IGN and GamesRadar) have said that they hate him. Eiji Aonuma said that this is part of the reason Tingle was not in Twilight Princess. So, they've even responded to the fact that Americans dislike Tingle by not putting him in Zelda games anymore. He has had no major appearances in main series Zelda games since The Minish Cap, in 2004. You could argue that he wouldn't have made sense in TP or Skyward Sword anyway, but he would've fit just fine in the DS games, and all he got was a reference on a poster in Phantom Hourglass. I think it's safe to say that if Sakurai puts him in, it won't be because he's popular.

He's kinda like the video game version of this:

Relevancy: He's been in several Zelda games and had two of his own games. Which is more than you can say for a lot of characters being talked about.

Also, those game titles are so ****ing Japanese. Freshly-Picked Tingle's Rosy Rupeeland and Ripening Tingle's Balloon Trip of Love.

Design: I guess you could probably piece something together.

Roster Competition: Tingle would either be the fifth Zelda slot (and 6th move set) or would be taking the place of someone else (i.e. Toon Link). Personally, I'd be quite annoyed if they cut Toon Link in favor of Tingle. A fifth Zelda slot is a possibility but not a very strong one. We do know that they've considered Tetra/Toon Zelda previously.

He'd also be competing with Tetra/Toon Zelda, Ghirahim, Vaati, Impa, more minor characters like Demise, Groose, Zant, and alternate versions like "Classic Link", Masked Link, Pig Ganon, etc. Fortunately for Tingle, that's not the strongest line up, so if we assume a new Zelda character, Tingle has a decent chance. If Toon Link is cut there's no way Toon Zelda gets in (IMO).

Tingle Chances: 7%
Ultimately, Nintendo knows Americans hate Tingle and they've responded by removing him from the main series. There's a chance that Sakurai loves Tingle himself and I think that's the only thing that can save him. A new Zelda character isn't too likely in the first place either, and I do think that Tetra is considerably more likely based on the Forbidden 7, and some of the others have similar chances to Tingle.

Tingle Want: 30%
I don't really wanna see Tingle, mainly because I'd rather have other Zelda characters. That said, if he got in, he'd be the new trollingest character to beat people with. Getting beaten by Tingle has gotta be even worse than being beaten by Jigglypuff.

Sandbag prediction: 2%
I don't know why we're talking about him, but somebody must think he's a possibility. Mr. Saturn was on that whiteboard drawing too, I don't think anyone thinks he's gonna be playable.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[CalumG]

For those who are saying maybe it's just people on this board who hate him... No. Nintendo has commented on how much Americans dislike Tingle. Some major Western gaming sites (like IGN and GamesRadar) have said that they hate him. Eiji Aonuma said that this is part of the reason Tingle was not in Twilight Princess. So, they've even responded to the fact that Americans dislike Tingle by not putting him in Zelda games anymore. He has had no major appearances in main series Zelda games since The Minish Cap, in 2004. You could argue that he wouldn't have made sense in TP or Skyward Sword anyway, but he would've fit just fine in the DS games, and all he got was a reference on a poster in Phantom Hourglass. I think it's safe to say that if Sakurai puts him in, it won't be because he's popular

Assuming this is in reference to what I was saying earlier, I'd like to clarify that I meant the internet in general has perhaps exaggerated Nintendo's perspective of how the public views Tingle. Again, I know anecdotal evidence doesn't count for much but only a few of my real-life friends who are fans of Zelda take a dislike to Tingle the way people online do. You know how the saying goes: "those who hate him shout the loudest", or something to that effect.

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Tingle: 10%

Want: 55% - I will admit, he would be cool.

Sandbag: 1%

Nominations:
Eirika 5x

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Tingle

Chance: 0% - If what people say about his hatred being officially recognized by Nintendo is true, then I don't think that bodes well for him.

Want: 5% - I don't have a strong dislike for him, but I feel that it would be best for him to remain an assist trophy.

Sandbag Prediction: - 1% People don't think he should be playable because he's not an all star. However, they just don't want to admit that dat revenge of the Sandbag is coming.

Nominations:
Ike x5

 

[Erimir]

Assuming this is in reference to what I was saying earlier, I'd like to clarify that I meant the internet in general has perhaps exaggerated Nintendo's perspective of how the public views Tingle. Again, I know anecdotal evidence doesn't count for much but only a few of my real-life friends who are fans of Zelda take a dislike to Tingle the way people online do. You know how the saying goes: "those who hate him shout the loudest", or something to that effect.

I don't know how much exactly the hate is among the general public, or Zelda fans vs. Smash fans, but either way, Nintendo recognizes that there's a significant group that dislikes him.

And even if it's only a few of your real-life Zelda fan friends hate Tingle... how many is that compared to your total IRL Zelda fan friends? And how many of your friends really like him vs. being fairly neutral? I'm not sure what you're saying is actually contradictory.

 

[Groose]

Okay... I think Tingle is overstaying his welcome... things are starting to get ugly.

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE

Sadly... this upcoming day will probably be even uglier.

 

[Groose]

Tingle (The Legend of Zelda)
15.59% Chance
25.85% Want

Tingle managed to place only in front of Lyn and Owain in terms of want. Why? Many of you cited his hatebase as his largest opponent. The same hatebase also factored into his want percentage: Tingle defeated only Owain in terms of want, falling even behind the dreaded Miis. Ouch.

However, to be brutally honest, Tingle is probably going to beat out today's competitor in terms of chance. Why? It's... Sandbag. Yes. Sandbag. Yeah. Feel free to rate Sandbag's chance and want today.

Also, please predict how people will rate Ike, our competitor for tomorrow. Smasher101, ToothiestAura, Mr. Mumbles, and Aqua RockX all win five extra nominations today. Man, what's with these ties?