Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Toad

Likeliness: 35%
He is in the same boat as the other Mario reps. Even if they add a new Mario rep, he has competition from other characters. That being said, he does have a feel things going for him. He is the last of the Mario all stars, he could be removed from Peach's move set, and he is extremely iconic.

Want: 30%
I'm meh on him. If prefer Bowser Jr. or Rosalina.

Tingle
28%

Nomz:
Nightmare

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Toad:
Chance: 20%
I only see him as an assist trophy, or part of Peach's moveset, he's good there, as a character himself I do see enough that he can do...

Want: 20%
Again, he's a likable character, but I just can't imagine what he would do that would be properly interesting...

Tingle: 26.66%
This poll is made in the west, the west hates Tingle. I think he's more likely than people give him credit for, but that's my guess of his popularity here.


Slime*5
(he's gooing to make it some time)

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Toad prediction - 18%

He's a pretty generic character although to be sure he's still a very prominent Mario character overall. I still think that there are other mario characters that would have more of a chance.....if the series will even be getting a fifth combatant.

Toad want - 15%

Not really fussed about it, I like him as a character but I don't have much desire to play as him.

Tingle prediction - 34%

I think Tingle probably has a much higher chance than some would like to think....although I wouldn't say he's the most likely of additions either.

Nominations
Chibi Robo X3
Robin (Awakening) X2

 

[Smasher 101]

Toad's chances: 30% - There's a chance that there won't be a new Mario rep, but if there is, it will likely be either Bowser Jr. or Toad.
Want: 10%

Tingle: 15%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5.

 

[MargnetMan23]

I don't think I posted this yet
Toad: 20% *Shrugs*
Want: 0% I just don't really like this character
Tingle: 19%
nomz: x3 Omastar x2 G&W

 

[TumblrFamous]

Toad's Chances: 36%
Hes one of last allstars left. He's pretty dang iconic, being in nearly every Mario platformer and almost all the spin-offs. Still, he has some major competition. Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and even Waluigi have just as good of chances. Being with the games all this time is a plus for him, and he could have an incredible moveset potential, but it all depends on whether he outshines the other three contenders and if Mario even gets a new rep.

Toad Want: 50%
He'd be pretty cool to play as, but I'd like someone like Bowser Jr. before him. I find Bowser Jr. more likely, and I like him more. Just preference.

Tingle: 32%
Meh. People don't like him, people love him. We'll see.

Nominations:
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

my sister just called me a tater as an abbreviation to toad hater lol. ok now on to business.
Toad: 11%
Want: 1%

Tingle prediction: 7%

x5 Zoroark

 

[Primid]

Toad Likelihood: 25% He's a recognizable character, but he's competing with Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario, two characters with more potential for a moveset.
Toad Want: 5% I like Toad and have nothing against him. In fact, I usually play as him in Mario spinoffs when given the chance. I just don't see him fitting in as a fighter.

Tingle Prediction: 20%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Toad: 37%
-Has been a playable character(species) in the NSMB series multiple times since brawl which is very significant. And to all the people who say he doesn't have moveset potential, he can pretty much do everything Mario and Luigi can and could easily just use unrepresented power ups in his moves. It wouldn't be hard to make a moveset at all for Toad. He has to compete with Waluigi, Paper Mario and probably to a greater extent Bowser Junior who has also played significant roles in those games. Another hindrance/sign he might not be playable would be the fact that he hasn't been included yet after 3 games and has been in Peach's special for 2 games. All the arguments that he's generic and not a fighter are stupid in my opinion. Those went out the window with Villager.

Another thing, I don't see how people think it's unlikely we'll get a new Mario Rep, it's the biggest franchise in the game. We had 2 in the first game, added 3 in Melee + Yoshi and lost 1 clone and added Wario in brawl. Since brawl, we've had several major Mario titles come out. NSMBW, NSMB2, SMB3DL, NSMBU & SM3DW. Not to mention that the competition is much less steep this time around. I wouldn't be surprised if they got 2 characters.

Want: 70%
Second most wanted Mario character.

Tingle: 17.8%

3x Vaati
2x Impa

 

[ToothiestAura]

Toad

Chances: 45%
Given that Toad's actually been playable in a few New Super Mario Bros. games, I see that his chances are higher than ever. Toad could easily get in and still be a part of Peach's Moveset - I mean there are tons of Toads, right? (there's a 100% chance Toad will return in Peach's Moveset.)

Want: 15%
While I would have no problem with it if Toad were playable, I would rather the likes of Bowser Jr. or Waluigi.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Toad: 10% The only reason his likelihood is even that high is because so many characters have had their shot at the fray already. Even still I'm probably being a bit generous. Sure Sakurai could replace the toad in Peach's moveset with Toadsworth or some such, but I think the main problem is that the moveset demonstrates that Sakurai likely doesn't consider Toad to be a viable playable character. It's one of the main reasons I doubt Ridley. Though Sakurai could make him, I just don't think Sakurai sees him in that way... Yeah nothing strange sounding about that statement alright.

Want: 25% Eh... He'd be okay I guess.

Tingle: 15% He won't do well here... and with good reason.

Nominations:
Geno x5

 

[Groose]

Toad Prediction: 25% He's the most wanted Mario newcomer in the East, surely that counts for something. But even so, Waluigi got the nod for the AT in Brawl and Bowser Junior is also a looming threat. Another disadvantage for him is that he doesn't have the personality of Waluigi nor the obvious moveset of Junior... and he also is from Mario, and already "fully represented" series.

Toad Want: 25% I love the little guy, don't get me wrong. But that doesn't mean I want to see him in Smash.

Tingle Prediction: 28.86% I feel that the previously rated character that is most similar to Tingle is Krystal. Both have a substantial hatebase and come from series that are already considered fully represented or overrepresented. Krystal has two important edges over Tingle. Firstly, her playstyle is rather obvious and unique; few can argue against a staff, while many will be perplexed at what exactly Tingle can do (even I find his a difficult moveset to make). Secondly, Krystal's fanbase is quite a bit larger than Tingle's, and I'm sure that will also factor into things. Of course, Tingle also has a leg up over Krystal in that he has two retail games in his own series and has appeared in Smash with a semi-major role twice. But... people will conviently forget this, which is why my prediction is exactly 4% less than Krystal's result.

Nominate Dillon x5! Yup, that's right; I'm genuinely interested in how people think he will do.

Yes, my Tingle prediction was longer than the rest of my post combined. Deal with it.

 

[Keto]

Toad 25%
He has a decent chance along with his Mario competition.

want 25%

Tingle 25%

Sandbag x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Toad

Likelihood: 25%

I'll give him the iconic status is a pretty good odds giver, however, with bowser jr. and Waluigi, could he really beat them out. Also, is considered to be a fully represented series.

Want: 40%

While toad could be unique and cool, I just don't care for him that much.

Tingle: 15%

 

[Ephecus]

Toad
Chance: 15 %
Want: 30%

Tingle: 18 %

Nominations:
Medusa x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Toad

Likelihood: 5%
he's going to stay as Peach's neutral special

Want: 10%
his stubby little arms and legs aren't going to give him much range

Tingle
Predicion: 18%

Nominations:
Sandbag x5
HAHAHA!!!! looks like we're going to be predicting the Sandbag tommorow! unless people start nominating Ike...

 

[Keto]

HAHAHA!!!! looks like we're going to be predicting the Sandbag tommorow! unless people start nominating Ike...

I sure hope so... I've been nominating Sandbag since day 1.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Toad:

Likelihood: 10% - I believe Bowser Jr has a bigger chance than him, and even then I find another Mario rep very unlikely.

Want: 0% - I never liked him. In NSMB Wii and U he's the kind of character the guys that are late to the party get to play, he's always been that kind of character.

Tingle Prediction: 11%

Nominations:
5x Ike

 

[Opossum]

Is it possible to change my vote to x5 Ike? If so, I'd like to.

 

[XenothiumX]

Nominations:
5x Ike

Is it possible to change my vote to x5 Ike? If so, I'd like to.

you guys are Turds!

 

[Smasher 101]

I'd actually like to change all five of mine to Ike too, if that's possible.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

you guys are Turds!

Hey, I haven't been voting for anyone else but Ike throughout this whole thing, so it's not like I did it because you made the Sandbag remark. Though it did make me enjoy nominating him more

 

[DMurr]

Toad:

Likelihood: 40%
I think he's got a solid chance of appearing, considering that he's still sort of part of the main Mario cast, with more history behind him than Bowser Jr., who's been getting lumped in with the Koopalings lately and is less distinguishable. Waluigi is popular but has all the arguments that come with him being a "filler" character or whatever, even if he is possibly the most popular one. Paper Mario is a toss up, I don't really know what to think about him. He seems to be popular yet I never see him suggested. To me, Toad is the last Mario character I feel like should be added before the "main" Mario cast is complete.

Want: 10%
Why not? I wouldn't be upset if he got a spot. Don't really care otherwise. I like Mario games so any character is cool. I'm still holding out for Geno lol

Nominate... shoot idk. Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Toad

Chance: 5% - Sure he has seniority but I don't think Sakurai feels he's worthy.

Want: 5% - As far as I'm concerned he is fine as Peaches special and the Mario universe has enough "reps".

Tingle Prediction: 15% - Many feel that the triforce trio (and an extra Link) are enough for Smash.

Nominations:
Sandbag x5

 

[Deleted member]

Toad
Likelihood: 45%
Despite Peach's neutral B being Toad, you can make a unique moveset with him. He could use a variety of moves representing power-ups such as the Hammer Suit, Tanooki Suit, Ice Flower, etc. In a sense, his moveset could be compared to The Villager who has his own unique moveset from various items in the Animal Crossing series. With that said, Toad can use moves representing those power-ups and even have some moves from various Mario spin-offs, such as Mario Party or Mario Kart for example. He's also pretty popular enough to be put into SSB4. The things working against Toad is that he has competition from characters such as Bowser Jr.
Want: 10%
I don't really want him to be playable in SSB4. It would make sense, but I just want Bowser Jr. to be in instead of Toad. I'm not also a big fan of the character... freaking mushroom telling me that my Princess is in another castle...

Tingle
Prediction: 22.7%
I'm not expecting Tingle to get a high ratings...

Nominations:
Ganondorf x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Toad
Chance: 54% - I'm cautiously optimistic with this rating. I feel that Toad is the most popular and iconic Mario character not in Smash. Unfortunately he still has some competition from Waluigi, Bowser jr, and Paper Mario.
Want: 97% - I'm one of the Toad fans.

Tingle prediction: 17%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5.

 

[BKupa666]

Toad

Likelihood - 55%
According to the Melee poll, Toad ranked below Bowser, Peach and Wario for potential Mario newcomers (the latter being counted under this label at the time). Considering it was a conscious choice on Sakurai's end not to add Wario to Melee so as to not include too many Mario characters (this was before the clones came into play), it wouldn't be too surprising if the same occurred in Brawl, even though Wario ended up under his own icon. Following this scenario, Toad would be the most eligible Mario character as of now. I'd have him higher if I believed the Mario series was more due for a newcomer than forum consensus indicates. He'd also be served well if his fanbase weren't so self-crippling, particularly in Japan, where users have noted deep pessimism as to him remaining a Special Move, keeping him from being among the most wanted newcomers.

Want - 10%
At this point, most of the suggestions I've seen for him involve him being small, but strong...and little else. I'd score him more highly here if I thought he'd bring in more SMB2 representation with him, but I worry that he'd become a dump for all the leftover NSMB powerups not used by Mario or Luigi instead, which I would dislike.

Tingle Prediction - 20.5%
He'll get a few decent ratings from those who recognize him as the next most important and recurring Zelda character not currently playable, but many, many poor ratings because he's Tingle.

Nominate
Ganondorf x5

 

[farvin111]

Toad- 25%
Sakurai doesn't seem to like him.

Want- 80%
I love Toad.

Tingle- 24%

x5 Scrooge McDuck

 

[BlitznBurst]

Shouldn't the day have ended by now? ._.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Toad:

Chance: 70%
Want: 80%

He's been made playable in the New Super Mario Bros. series, which are by now a big part already in the series. Good thing he's also been made more prominent by the new Mario game for 3DS where you can also play as Luigi, Peach and Toad alongside Mario. He has more than enough potential being an unique character, and Peach's Neutral B could be replaced by Toadsworth, or something else entirely.

I want him in cause he's classic, lightweight, iconic as **** and awesome. He's easily my favorite potential Mario newcomer.

 

[Groose]

Shouldn't the day have ended by now? ._.

As I explained on the post when I started the day, the day would run an extra couple hours because I was at the Symphony of the Goddesses. Now that I'm back, though, I can say...

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE

 

[Groose]

Toad (Mario):
30.16% Chance
36.28% Want

Toad managed to fall right in the middle of Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. in terms of chance, placing 14th overall. Unfortunately, he failed to inspire much interest and was defeated by both Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. in terms of want. Once again, it’s not a case of disliking the character; it’s a case of wanting his competitors more for what they could bring to the table.

Sigh. And you thought Toad's want ratio was bad. Well, I can pretty much guarantee you that today's contestant will score worse. He is Tingle. Need I say more? Please rate the chances and want of Tingle.

Also, please predict how people will rate Sandbag... our... competitor?... for tomorrow. Doing so can win you extra nominations, like the five each won by Moocow123450, Rhythm, Mr. Mumbles and TheCreator.

 

[Opossum]

Tingle time.

Likelihood: 20%
Mainly because, in all honesty, I don't see the Zelda series getting a newcomer, nor do I see Tingle representing anything but the Zelda series (in other words, not a "new series" character). As far as Zelda characters, though, he's at a decent chance. I'd only put Ghirahim slightly above him.

Want: 20%
Meh.

Prediction for...Sandbag (Y U NO IKE!!>.<) 1.2%

Nominating Ike x2,
ZSS x1,
Falco x1
and Sheik x1

 

[TumblrFamous]

You have Tingle now, are you happy? Okay.

Prediction: 40%
He's actually not that unlikely. He is a "popular", recurring Zelda character. All we have left are him, the toons, or Impact. Maybe Ghirahim. But that's really it. He has a huge hatebase, and personally, I find him more suitable as an assist Trophy.

Want: 15%
Meh.

As for Sandbag... dammit.
Ill be generous and give him a 0.2% chance.

As for my noms, Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Tingle:

Likelihood: 5% - I don't believe this guy stands much of a chance. The triforce trio could carry the weight of the Zelda franchise on their own, when we get down to character like Tingle it feels like we're digging into minor characters that aren't as reoccuring or important to the franchise as the ones that should be included, for those spots we have assist trophies. And yes, I know how much of a reoccuring character he is, but he just doesn't warrant a playable spot, because he isn't a major character, he isn't one who has helped shape the franchise or stands as a mascot for it, Link, Zelda, Ganondorf and Toon Link does that, Tingle doesn't.

Want: 0% - Better off as an assist trophy, he shouldn't take a spot from someone that'd be more deserving.

Sandbag Prediction: 2.1% - Still not as bad as Owain.

Nominations:
5x Ike - Hopefully for the last time.

 

[Groose]

You have Tingle now, are you happy? Okay.

Very.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Tingle likelihood: 0%. Come on, have you seen what people think of him? Sakurai has openly acknowledged how much the American fanbase hates Tingle as a reason why he isn't going to be a playable character. Sorry guys, it's not happening.

Want: 0%. Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugggggghhhhhh

Sandbag prediction: 2%. I.. wuh... what?

Skull Kid X5

 

[Keto]

Tingle: 20%
He is the only Zelda rep left that has some shot of getting in. All of these other one time appearance characters should rank lower than Tingle.

Want: 1%

Sandbag: 7% (Finally)

Geno x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Tingle

Likelihood: 5% - C'mon guys, be realistc. Tingle is not gonna happen. Even if we get a fifth Zelda rep, it's not going to be Tingle, there's a much higher chance it will be Toon Zelda, Ghirahim, Vaati, etc.

Want: 30% - He's a nice and funny character, but as a playable character and don't think he would be that nice

Sandbag Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
Dillon x3
Zoroark x2

 

[NickerBocker]

Tingle
Likelihood: ummm... 0.1%?
Not to be insulting (sorry Groose,) but arent there a multitude of better choices, even if theyre mostly one time villains?

Want: 0%
Probably one of the only things I didnt like in majoras mask, and to my dismay he kept appearing. Just no.

Sandbag...?: 1%
Hilarious choice, I did take a look at the moveset, and its pretty clever.

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull Kid x2