Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Groose]

Just in case you didn't know, the decision of conducting "Rate Their Chances" on GameFAQs wasn't SSBF's decision, actually. He ran a poll initially. IIRC most of us were neutral on that, so he decided to do it on both websites. If most of us had objected to it, he wouldn't have run it there.

I joined this Rate Their Chances on Day 2. It's a nice relief to know that, then.

And, since Tingle is pretty much a lock to appear in the next few days... who do I nominate now?

I've only nominated Tingle thus far. Tingle and only Tingle.

Nominations:
5x Ike - I refuse to rate Tingle before Ike.

CURSE YOU ALIEN SCUM!

 

[Erimir]

You could nominate Groose.

 

[Groose]

You could nominate Groose.

Except I think we all know he would score as poorly as Owain, if not worse.

Currently, I'm toying between Medusa and Goroh. They were both popular pics of the past who kinda crashed in the last year or two.

 

[Opossum]

Except I think we all know he would score as poorly as Owain, if not worse.

Currently, I'm toying between Medusa and Goroh. They were both popular pics of the past who kinda crashed in the last year or two.

Personally, I'm trying to get vets out of the way first, hence my votes for Ike, the Ice Climbers, etc.

 

[Groose]

Chrom's Chances: 60% Smashboards is the heart of Roy nation. I frequent a number of other fansites (FAQs among them) and I rarely ever see any people in favor of Roy. He is popular here, and that does count for a lot, but a population of at least equal size is partial to Awakening.

Of course, there is quite a bit of debate among Awakening fans. Many of them prefer other characters---notably Robin and Lucina (Owain and Tharja are thrown around a lot, too... but as trolling). Even so, I'm sticking to my guns: Chrom is the main character from the most recent Fire Emblem. Therefore, he is the most likely newcomer. Since Fire Emblem is all the rage right now, it probably will merit a newcomer.

Chrom Want: 25% I've said it before, I'll say it once more. Fire Emblem is a solid series, but no where near my favorite. I find the majority of characters boring, cliched, and generic; I haven't played Awakening, so I can't specifically judge Chrom. Even so, I haven't exactly heard great things about him.

Toad Prediction: 35.89% I averaged together Paper Mario and Bowser Junior's scores. Why? I really have no idea how Toad will fall.

TINGLE X5! It's so close right now. I hope this will push him over the edge.

Personally, I'm trying to get vets out of the way first, hence my votes for Ike, the Ice Climbers, etc.

That's a pretty fine strategy too. I'll make up my mind tomorrow. But as of now...

 

[Groose]

Chrom (Fire Emblem)
70.49% overall chance (69.65% Smashboards, 74.45% GameFAQs)
54.42% overall want (57.27% Smashboards, 41.72% GameFAQS)

Guys. We have a bit of a surprise. Chrom succeeded in changing the rankings; he’s now fourth overall, and fifth if only Smashboards is counted. Oh, but that wasn’t the surprise. The surprise was that GameFAQs actually wanted an Awakening character less than Smashboards. Quite a farewell for the GameFAQs branch of the game, eh?

Today, the lovable Toad warrior enters the arena. He’s the third Mario newcomer we’re rating; both Bowser Junior and Paper Mario both posted unimpressive results. Can Toad break the mold? Please leave your chance and want on Toad today.

Also, please predict how Tingle will do in tomorrow’s competition. Doing so can earn you extra noms, like those won by Gigabowserxyz, iDOWN, Mr. Mumbles, and legendofrob1. Oh, and please remember; now that GameFAQs is discontinued, there will be fewer people to doubt the odds of the great Tingle!

As a sidenote: this day will run a little while longer than it normally would. I do have an excuse. It's called the Symphony of the Goddess, baby! That's right. My body is ready for the music, and it would kind of suck updating on mobile while at a concert.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Toad
likely hood 10%
I just don't see it how can there be a character that theres many others of and I can't figure out a dang moveset for toad

want 0%
toad is just like these guys many other toads

 

[Opossum]

Toad time. :3

Want: 98%
I like Toad a lot.

Likelihood: 50%
I feel he's the most likely Mario newcomer, but it's a Mario newcomer itself that I find not too likely.

Predicting a 19% for Tingle.

Nominating
Zero Suit Samus x1
Sheik x1
Falco x1
Ike x2

Just to secure Ike's place, and put the former three on the board

Toad
likely hood 10%
I just don't see it how can there be a character that theres many others of and I can't figure out a dang moveset for toad

want 0%
toad is just like these guys many other toads

You mean like Yoshi, ROB, and all Pokemon barring Mewtwo? Having multiple members of a species isn't a death sentence. For a moveset? Just look in the Toad thread.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Toad likeliness: 10%. He doesn't even have any moves. The only thing he could possibly represent are the spinoff titles, and I'd rather have Waluigi for that, if only because he has far more personality than Toad. There are plenty of Mario reps who would get in ebfore Toad, and even those I wouldn't say are incredibly likely.

Want: 30%. All I can honestly say is "meh."

Tingle prediction: 20%. I'm honestly just pulling numbers out of my ass at this point

Skull Kid X5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Liklyhood 30%: I think they stand a small chance, the things that get in his way is that 1. mario might not get a new rep. and 2. bowser jr, paper mario, and waluigi may make it in before him

Want 5%: I think that they would just be boring characters, not saying a moveset cant be made for them because sakurai can really make a moveset for anyone, but they dont really do anything. I would much rather see bowser jr. and i dont think there is room for both of them. Im finding it hard to describe how i feel about them, its just that they would be another featurless character. Imagine the horrors if toad, mii, wii fit trainer, and villager get in, they are just all so basic. I love villager and think WFT is a funny addition, but there is only room for so much.

Tingle: 30%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Fastblade5035]

Toad: 39%
Has to compete with Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Waluigi.

Want: 50%
Couldn't care if he was in or not.

Tingle (vomits): 10%

Noms:
Omastar x1
Gaius x3
Yarne x1

 

[Sebz]

Toad ~ 16%
Sure he has the profile to make it in, but I think there are more deserving/interesting characters to make it in.

Want~ 0%
I reaaaaallly don't want him. Call it bias or whatever but I just find him droll and uninteresting.

Tingle~ 13.2%

Noms:
Genesect x5

 

[Opossum]

Also, to the people saying that Toad doesn't have any moves: I advise looking at the game Wario's Woods, as well as taking into account his spore and mushroom based abilities, and the fact that he's essentially the item-master of the Mario series, considering he's always in charge of the Toad houses. Just something to consider.

 

[Starbound]

Toad's chances: 15%
History is the only thing on his side. Looking at what Toad can do, and the list is short lived.

Want: 80%
Love Toad

Predicting 24.69% for Tingle

Nomz: x5 sandbag

might as well get this one out of the way >_>

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Toad
Likelihood: 20% I just don't see him having a very good chance.
Want: 10% Meh. What would he do? He's really generic too.

Tingle: 5%

Nominations:
Masked Man x5

 

[jaytalks]

The weird thing to me is how low Fire Emblem's sales are relative to some other series yet people think it's obvious that Fire Emblem deserves and will receive three reps, possibly four. I wouldn't be overly surprised if they only had two reps again, if Sakurai's putting more emphasis on adding new series to the game.
I don't think a lack of uniqueness is a disqualification.

It's more like, if a character's very unique but in a way that translates to Smash easily, that's a positive. That's part of why Sakurai was so open to putting Mega Man in. It's probably why Wii Fit Trainer got in. It wasn't because there was a big fan demand for WFT. But the existence of Falco and Toon Link should be enough to convince people that non-uniqueness is not a disqualification. Sakurai can make anyone unique in the broad sense of having different moves from everyone else. That's not hard.

When I was saying it before, I was reacting against people preemptively defending Chrom from the "not unique" charge. Their defense should be "being less unique doesn't disqualify" - not pretending as if Chrom isn't quite similar to other FE characters. Because he is. Sure, you can make him different. But their ideas for making him different could be used on all sorts of characters. He's not unique. Or at least, he's not significantly more unique than Toon Link.

Waluigi could have a stance based move set where he uses a tennis racket in one stance and a golf club in another. Takamaru could use samurai stances. Little Mac could use stances. Bowser Jr could transform to Shadow Mario, or pull out his paintbrush as a move. Ganondorf could have a stance change switching between a sword and a trident and his fists. You can come up with that idea for all sorts of characters if you're worried about them not being unique enough, it's nothing unique about Chrom specifically.


Put it this way: if you weren't thinking about uniqueness as a concern, and Marth and Roy and Ike hadn't already been in the game, and you were designing a move set for Chrom... how different would it be?

But like I said, not being unique doesn't mean your character won't get in. And there are other reasons that Chrom has a decent chance of getting in.
If these are arguments why Chrom is unique, is there any character out there you would say is NOT unique? I mean, cuz clearly royal blood or not makes them very different. And Luigi wears green, not red. And Falco is a bird.

I don't think it makes sense to use Sakurai's words to deconfirm characters. I wasn't talking about anyone in particular. I think uniqueness is a positive, but non-uniqueness (which is very subjective) should not be used to deconfirm characters. I think you can really design any good character to be unique. Using Manly Spirit's archetypes, you can have him be a counter heavy (more so than other FE characters) characters. Most of the examples you named aren't present in the games themselves. They are things that people have come up with to make a character of choice unique. Takamaru doesn't use separate stances. I have yet to see a sports game where Waluigi switches from a tennis racket to a golf club. From what I've seen of Takamaru in his own game, I'm pretty sure he only uses one stance. Little Mac doesn't change stances within the game.

It doesn't make sense to hold Chrom to a higher standard of uniqueness considering how many different ways someone can fight with a sword.

To answer you're question, it would different as the amount of ways a person can fight with a sword. I don't think any character can be deconfirmed on the basis of being not unique, because that's very subjective and doesn't even deal with the fact that any clone-like character can be given a different moveset. I hope to not derail the thread. Just wanted to respond.

Toad
Likelihood: 25% He could represent the New Super Mario Bros generation, but I doubt it.
Want: 50% I think out of all possible Mario reps, he is the one that should get in the most. And you could also have a fight purely with Super Mario Bros 2 characters, which would be awesome.

My spider sense is tingling! I give Tingle a prediction of 35.27%.
Nominations: Waluigi x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Toad

Chance - 27.5% - Yeah, again, I'm 50/50 on a Mario comer, but Toad I feel slightly edges out Browser Jr. for the spot. Really, you could copy-paste what I said then here.

Want - 50% - Meh. No feelings at all.


Tingle Prediction - 30% - A character with a hate base and in a series that arguable has enough characters? Yeah, he'll do poorly.

Nominations
Ike X3
ROB X2

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Toad: 28% He's got the second best chance of the Mario newcomers.

Want:75 % He'd be pretty nifty.

Tingle Prediction: 22%
The hate base is strong with this one.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Ike
R.O.B.

 

[Gam3rALO]

ahh I missed Chrom... Oh well
Toad
33%
He is one of 3 competing for a new Mario rep with Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario. The problem is the chance of having a new Mario rep itself.
Want: 40%
Yeahhh.... I would rather have Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario as a Mario rep. But if they don't get in...Fine!

Prediction for Tingle: 17.55%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[Seraphim.]

Chance: 30% Don't see it happening, but I kinda do too...

Want: 30%

Tingle: 10%

Nominations
Rob x5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Chance: 70%
Want: 85%

He's been playable a lot lately, and iconic and popular as ****. Also, Sakurai's old statements may not be accurate anymore, since Villager got playable.

 

[---]

Toad - 35%
Want - 10%
+ Last of the truly big Mario characters
+ Has somewhat decent popularity
- Is already apart of Peach's S-Special
- Arguably better in a NPC role than fighter
- Has fair competition from other Mario characters

 

[Forde]

Chance: 40%
Want: 5%

Tingle: 5%

 

[Xenigma]

Toad - 5%
Toad's such an easy to love character. Problem is he's not much of a Smash character, which is probably why the call was made back in Melee to incorporate him into Peach's moveset. These days Toads are rising in importance, with players able to command two of them in recent four-player Mario titles, and there have been plenty of notable Toads in the past. Toad is probably the most recognizable Mario character not already playable in Smash. As far as Smash characters go, though, Toad just doesn't seem like he really fits in the series, what with his tiny limbs and tiny body and general lack of interesting moveset potential. He may eternally be my favorite character in all the other party games, but Smash isn't one that I think he has much of a future in, and as such I just can't see him as a likely pick. I'll at least give him some percentage for notability, but I don't see him Smashing on his own any time soon.
Want - 50% - Should Sakurai somehow make him work, I'd surely want to try him out. Far from a priority in terms of characters I like, but I'd be okay with his inclusion.

Tingle Prediction - 12.74%
Ewwwww. I don't see him having much of a fanbase, but he shouldn't be too awful. I'll predict he ends up the same area as Lyn.

Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[ErictheLone]

Toad

Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Why wouldn't you want to play as a small mushroom man that's as strong as DK and fast as Captain Falcon?


Tingle: 20%


Nomination:

Sheriff x 5

 

[TheMasonOrder]

Toad's Likelihood: 5%

Want: 0%

Tingle: 10%

Nominations:
Eirika 3x
Tharja 2x

 

[Starcutter]

Toad - 76% showing up in all these new marios as playable should count as something. might be the toad captain from mario galaxy, though.

Want - 65% there isn't really anybody I HATE(execpt Pac-Man), but toad is the closest to being hated. I do think there is possibility for him to be done RIGHT, though.

Tingle: 35%

Nominations
Kamek x4
Porky

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Toad time. :3

Want: 98%
I like Toad a lot.

Likelihood: 50%
I feel he's the most likely Mario newcomer, but it's a Mario newcomer itself that I find not too likely.

Predicting a 19% for Tingle.

Nominating
Zero Suit Samus x1
Sheik x1
Falco x1
Ike x2

Just to secure Ike's place, and put the former three on the board




You mean like Yoshi, ROB, and all Pokemon barring Mewtwo? Having multiple members of a species isn't a death sentence. For a moveset? Just look in the Toad thread.

Oops oh yea I forgot about pokemon and the robs in sse but the numbers are not changing

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 15%
Want: 85%

Tingle: 49%

Karate Joe x5

 

[cephalopod17]

Toad's Chances: 35%
He faces stiff competition from Paper Mario, WAA and Bowser Jr. for a main Mario rep. Not to mention there may not be another Mario rep. He would have a interesting moveset.

Toad's Want: 60%
Like I mentioned before he would have a interesting moveset. Also I think he deserves it. I'd be ok with Bowser Jr. too.

 

[PK_Wonder]

I give Toad a solid 75%. He's the most likely character we haven't already rated, and hands-down the most likely Mario character. He's been so much more active and relevant since Brawl, with an excess of playable appearances. He also has the most iconic history and all-star rep out of all of the Nintendo characters not already in the game. He could be replaced with Toadsworth for Peach.

predict 19% Tingle

Saki Amamiya x5

 

[AfricanSanta]

Toad chances- 45%- Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Waluigi all are equally deserving and have better moveset potential.

Toad want- 5%- He's sooooooo boring.

Tringle- 26%

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[Erimir]

For people talking about Toad being generic and "toad" being a species, keep in mind that's only true in English. In Japan, the species is called kino, and Toad the character is named Kinopio. To Sakurai and the Japanese devs, he won't seem quite as generic as he does to us. Although I'm sure they're aware that Kinopio the kino is Toad the toad in the US.

Toad

Popularity: Toad's the 8th most popular video game character in Japan. Like, overall. http://kotaku.com/5035884/and-japans-favorite-video-game-characters-are

That makes him the 3rd most popular Nintendo character in Japan. He's fairly wanted by Smash fans both in Japan and the US.

Relevancy: He's been in pretty much all Mario games, from the beginning. He's been playable in a number of them, but usually fairly generic in those cases. But he did star in Wario's Woods.

Design: Kinda hard to think of a move set for him though.

Competition: Bowser Jr and to a lesser extent Paper Mario and Waluigi are also fighting for a spot.

Other: He's part of Peach's move set. That could be fixed by replacing him with Toadsworth though. Or giving her a new move. If, when Peach is revealed, they don't show Peach's neutral-B in any screen shots, you should be at least a little suspicious.

Toad chances: 23%
The move set problem is pretty significant, as is the fact that he's fairly generic, unique name or not. Bowser Jr has more personality and more move set potential, so he's the most likely Mario newcomer. Toad's popularity and long history put him in second - Sakurai will solve the move set problem if he wants to.

Toad want: 60%
I like him alright, but I have a hard time envisioning what he'd do. Still, he's more deserving than a lot of others.

Tingle prediction: 8%
Tingle has some fans in the West and is decently popular in Japan, but there's a lot of hate out there. And we know that Nintendo has responded to the West's hate of the character. I don't think most people will think he's very likely.

Nominations:
5x Simon Belmont

To answer you're question, it would different as the amount of ways a person can fight with a sword. I don't think any character can be deconfirmed on the basis of being not unique, because that's very subjective and doesn't even deal with the fact that any clone-like character can be given a different moveset.

I specifically said I didn't think it disqualified him. Why are you responding as if I had?

I was saying that I was annoyed at people defending Chrom and saying he's unique, when he just isn't that unique. I wasn't arguing that meant he wouldn't be in.

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Toad

Likelihood: 35% - If Mario gets a fifth rep, which is not highly unlikely, it is between Bowser Jr and Toad, as I don't think Waluigi stands that big of a chance. Toad was playable in the most recent main Mario titles, so that's something that gives him even more strenght as a character.

Want: 70% - Toad is my ost wanted Mario newcomer, as I think he's an awesome character.

Tingle prediction: 4,3%

Nominations:
Zoroark x2
Dillon x3

 

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 42% - After Junior, Toad is probably the second most likely Mario newcomer, beating out Paper Mario and Waluigi (Even though I personally feel he'd be more likely lumped with Wario, but that's a debate for another day). Toad suffers from the unfortunate "generic member of a species" curse, but even then he's managed to stand out amongst his bretheren as a popular choice. Toad being picked wouldn't be the first instance of such a case, as Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Lucario and Yoshi have all achieved playability while simply being one member of a massive species. However, Toad's biggest hurdle is Junior, who has much more moveset potential and overall importance as a villain, whereas Toad functions primarily as an NPC, and occasionally as a P3/P4 character.

Want: 45% - Not really super interested in him, would rather see Junior, but I wouldn't mind his addition.

Tingle Prediction: 20% - He's actually pretty likely, but he's gonna get hit harder than anyone else by haters. With GameFAQ's out of the picture I can bump him up a bit, but not by much.

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh x3
Medusa x2

 

[SpaceJell0]

Toad: Likelihood: 5% sorta self explanatory, supporters are too optimistic
Want: 20% Wouldn't be bothered to see him but don't really want him either but I'm more towards leaving Mario as it is

Tingle: 0.00001% Ha! Funny.

Nominations: x5 Starfy

 

[YoshiandToad]

Looks like I came back on the right day.

Toad

Likelihood: 42%
I'd love to give him higher, but if I'm honest it's a toss up between him, Bowser Jr. and Waluigi for who gets in. With the Toads becoming more relevent with New Super Mario/Luigi Bros Wii/U and the new 3D Mario land, I'd give him the slight edge. Toad has some popularity himself as well of course and there's not really anything to stop him using a moveset based around all those power ups Mario and Luigi never seem to use in Smash(outside Fire Flower and Cape obviously).

Obvious arguements against Toad are him being Peach's B move, but like many Toad supporters I have no idea why that Toad can't just be reskinned for the more appropriate Toadsworth and him being one of many of the same species, but like many above have mentioned that never stopped Yoshi, or any of the Pokemon outside of Mewtwo.

Want: 100%
Toad is my most wanted newcomer(as if that wasn't obvious) and certainly one of the more recognisable Nintendo characters not yet in Smash. Even non gamers recognise the mushroom man, which in my eyes at least certainly makes him an All Star.
A moveset for him is fairly easy; Peach has already shown he can counter with spores as one move, the numerous power ups he hands out are hardly being used by either Mario brother, and a Toad Army Final Smash would be pretty immense.

Tingle prediction: 13.5%, as Tingle has his haters.

Nominations:
Dillion X 3
Waluigi X 2

 

[jaytalks]

I specifically said I didn't think it disqualified him. Why are you responding as if I had?
I was saying that I was annoyed at people defending Chrom and saying he's unique, when he just isn't that unique. I wasn't arguing that meant he wouldn't be in.

As I said, I wasn't talking about anyone in particular with the overall post. But I answered your question with the first sentence. And like with most of my posts, I was just summarizing my argument at the end.

The idea that subjective concept of "non-uniqueness" in their moveset can even affect a character's chance is the problem. Any character, within in the context of smash, can be given a different moveset to make them unique, for the most part. But I think we could have this conversation in another part of the forum if you want.

I joined this Rate Their Chances on Day 2. It's a nice relief to know that, then.

And, since Tingle is pretty much a lock to appear in the next few days... who do I nominate now?

I've only nominated Tingle thus far. Tingle and only Tingle.

Waluigi of course.

 

[PrincessAzula]

Toad Prediction: 8%
I honestly don't see him getting in before Bowser Jr., and even his chances aren't the best.

Toad Want: 20%
He's a nice addition in a lot of Mario spin-offs but I don't really see him as the most deserving to be in Smash Bros. I will admit he has been more prevalent in Mario games recently.

Tingle: 1%
Who?

Nominations:
Sheik x5

 

[FalKoopa]

The Toad army marches in!

Toad:
Likelihood: 35%
He and Bowser Jr. are neck-to-neck when it comes to choose the next Mario newcomer, but the chances of a Mario newcomer isn't all that great.

Want: 90%
Toad is my 2nd most wanted Mario newcomer, after Paper Mario.

Tingle prediction: 20%
Too many haters, unfortunately.

Nominations: Toon Zelda/Tetra x 5