No more GameFAQs? Probably better in the long term, though I wonder how SSBF would feel about it. Anyway...
Chrom - 40%
I'm giving him the same rating I gave Lucina, as I believe they are by far the two frontrunners for a new Fire Emblem spot thanks to the wild success of Awakening, and it's a toss-up between the two who gets picked. There's no doubt that between the two Chrom is the more visible character and the one with more overall importance within the Awakening plot, plus he enjoys tons of popularity. By those few metrics it's clear why everyone thinks Chrom is the top choice for SSB4. I just don't think it's clear cut that he's the pick, especially considering the current roster of Smash characters: what exactly does Chrom, a male, blue-haired lord, have to offer that Marth and Ike, two other male, blue-haired lords, do not? Meanwhile, there's Lucina, who IS has been pushing post-release, also enjoys a ton of popularity among fans, and would at the very least offer the differentiation of being female. We already know that Sakurai likes asking IS for who they think should rep FE, and it seems to me they're as likely to say Lucina as they are Chrom. In my mind it's too even a race to call, not to mention the tons of other characters that offer further competition (which is why I'm not comfortable putting them above 40%). Definitely looking forward to seeing how it all pans out.
Want - 50% - As a Smash character, Chrom just isn't that exciting IMO, and I would be quite disappointed if he made it in over Lucina. Still, would be great to see an Awakening rep regardless.
Toad Prediction - 33.3%
Another weird one. Feels like there will be those who think he's a shoo-in due to recent playability and the long history with the franchise, while others will see low chances due to Peach and little moveset potential. End of the day, I doubt he stacks up with Bowser Jr., but maybe he'll end up around Paper Mario.
Nominations
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5