Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Erimir]

Sheik

Sheik is not likely to be going anywhere. Despite what Diddy says, Impa replacing Zelda is just a possibility. There's really no reason Sakurai has to do it, nothing that justifies giving Sheik a 30% rating. Sakurai is content to have some inertia in the characters. If he cared as much as Diddy seems to think he does about relevance and representing the character the way he thinks they should be, Ganondorf would've been decloned in Brawl. Ness and Lucas would have special moves that represent them, not Paula and Kumatora. Toon Link would've used, at the very least, the Grappling Hook (cuz you use that thing like all the time in Wind Waker). etc.

I think Skyward Sword Impa was cool, and separating Zelda/Sheik into Zelda and Impa would not bother me, since I do generally just play as one or the other, and because they'd get down-B moves. I wouldn't care if Impa was mostly just a Sheik clone. Why would that matter? Sheik's moveset was pretty much just made up by Sakurai anyway, so applying the same made up Sheikah moveset to Impa is not really an insult to her. Sure, Impa would need a new final smash and could get some modifications, but heavily borrowing from Sheik would make the most sense.

Anyway, Impa's not that popular or well-known, Skyward Sword sold only about a third as much as Twilight Princess did, and cutting Sheik would bother plenty of people and keeping Sheik would be easy to do. End result: Sheik is most likely staying.

Sheik chances: 98.3%

Sheik want: 99%
Overall I want (Sheik or Impa) 100% but it doesn't matter a whole lot to me which we get.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:

Toon Link's reveal has boosted her chances since her getting in was basically contingent on Toon Link getting in. How much has it boosted her chances? Well, not a huge amount. No Zelda newcomer is more likely than not, IMO, but among the possibilities Tetra is probably the front runner since she got pretty far in the process in Brawl.

Toon Zelda/Tetra chances: 24%
Boosted from 20%, that's not an insignificant bump.

Tetra want: 76%
Replaying the Wind Waker (in HD) has slightly increased my want for Tetra.

Victini prediction: 1.5%
As a Pokeball Pokemon, sure. I don't think people think she's terribly likely otherwise though.

Nominations:
Dr Mario x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

A little food for thought on tomorrow's Pokemon. Genesect is setting at ab 8.56% chance. Do we really think Victini, Junichi Masuda's favorite monster, and an event Pokemon who was available for Black & White day one, is less likely than this?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

A little food for thought on tomorrow's Pokemon. Genesect is setting at ab 8.56% chance. Do we really think Victini, Junichi Masuda's favorite monster, and an event Pokemon who was available for Black & White day one, is less likely than this?

Yeah, because Genesect have been more important to current events. Victini has already passed its glory days, and it being Masuda's favorite Pokémon doesn't really affect its chances for Smash Bros at all. Genesect doesn't really have an 8% chance though, since X & Y is the hot stuff now. Gen V won't have a chance at a playable character, just like Gen III and Brawl.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shiek:
Chance: 97%
Shiek most likely isn't going anywhere. The only things that count against her are the same issues she had in Brawl; lack of recent appearences which means they had to fall back on a concept art picture. It'll be interesting to see what design Shiek will have this time, especially if Zelda's design is more based on her Skyward Sword design. The biggest thing going for Shiek though is Sakurai himself, who seems to like the character enough to possibly even contemplated making up a Toon version of her.

Want: 85%
Shiek is a weird one. Doesn't really compliment Zelda's playstyle, and Zelda doesn't really compliment Shiek's playstyle. Whilst I don't want Shiek cut necessarily, I don't think being connected to Zelda is helpful to either character's playstyle. Having them as seperate characters is honestly how I'd prefer them both, but I know not everyone feels the same.

Toon Zelda/Tetra:
Chance: 50%
The most likely character for a new Zelda represenation IMO, more so than Tingle, Impa, Vaati or Ghiriham. I'm just not sure Zelda is going to get a new representive.

Want: 75%
Mostly for Tetra. If this combination comes with "Toon Shiek" instead the want rating drops to a measly 4%. Tetra's piratatical roots give her some fun stuff to play with; cannons, bombs, her crew mates, swordsplay(the first female swords user maybe?).

Victini: 2%
Victini's popularity dropped considerably recently. Between Zoroark, Genesect, and the more universally accepted Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo, Victini's an unlikely pick. With Gen 6 arriving as well, Victini's seems less likely and to have a smaller following than Eevee, Meowth or Blaziken as well.

Nominations:
5 X Captain Syrup(more pirates!)

 

[Gunla]

Time to put in my two cents. Or, rather, since we have two characters, four.

Sheik:
Chances: 97%- Sorry, Diddy. Yes, it would be rather interesting to see a shake up of Sheik not return and we see a different character. The problem is that Sheik is such a popular character in competitive Smash, if Sheik was gone, not to return, along with her moveset, there would be a lot of outcry. I don't see Sheik going anywhere, Impa, or no Impa. I'm not counting Impa as a factor for Sheik at all, because this is about the chances of a popular Veteran who has appeared in Melee and Brawl, not about Impa, a potential Newcomer that does indeed intrigue me.

Want: 95%- Yeah, Sheik is one of my mains in Brawl, Project M, and Melee, and I'd be a little skeptical if Sheik was removed. Honestly, I agree with YoshiandToad, perhaps making them seperate characters entirely would be better, rather than just have a dual-character, one with range and one with speed. It's rather strange to have both in one package. Diddy's made a point, Sheik has been coupled with Zelda for a long time, despite so much little screen time. And if we split them, that allows for a shake up, giving both characters a new Down Special!

Tetra/Toon Zelda:
Chances: 40%- Why that low percent? Why? Because in my opinion, there are three major newcomers we could see. A Toon Zelda/Tetra Combo, Ghirahim, and Impa. Tetra has a little better shot of making it, due to the evidence being unfinished data of Tetra in Brawl. To some, that means nothing. To me, every little thing helps to point a sign. If Toon Link wasn't revealed yet, Tetra would not likely even be considered! Which would mean we'd be screaming for Ghirahim or Impa!

Want: 20%- That being said, my thoughts on chances don't equal my wants. I will cringe if I see yet another Dual-Character from TLoZ, and my interests primarily reside in Ghirahim.

Victini:
Chances: 3.04%- Again, we get a character that has fan interest, but not as much interest from people as much as.... Blaziken, Zoroark, Genesect, Mewtwo, Lucario, Jigglypuff... you get the idea, folks.

Who gets my nominations today?
Palutena X5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Sheik
Chance: 90%
I defiantly don't see her leaving

Want: 95%

Tetra/Toon Zelda
Chance: 22%

Want: 10%

Prediction for Victini: 1.11%

Nominations
Paper Mario x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Sheik
Chance 75%
I actually do think that there is a chance she will be replaced with Impa, albeit a very small one. However, there are also a few minor factors such as time constraints, 3DS limitations, and low priority that could make her be left out, but I wouldn't count on it.
Want 70%
I'd prefer that she stayed, but I wouldn't miss her too much if she's left out.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance 25%
I'd say that she/they are the most likely Zelda newcomer, but there are still plenty of other possibilities for a Zelda character, and I already find it unlikely that we'll even get a Zelda newcomer. So I'm still not expecting this to happen.
Want 35%
Could be interesting, but it just seems like a waste of a slot.

Victini Prediction 2.4%

Nomination
Ray x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Shiek
Chance: 99%
Want: 95%

Toon zelda/Tetra
Chance: 20%
Actually is a viable choice, considering what was being planned for Brawl.

Want: 25%
Its kind of redundant to have 3 toon characters, especially if theyre clones (zelda would most likely be at best a semi clone, Tetra could be unique.)

Victini: 1.9%

Nominations:
Goemon x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Sheik

Chance: 95% - Being one of the more popular characters, I can't see her leaving.

Want: 95% - Being a veteran, I don't want to see her leaving.

Toon Zelda/Tetra

Chance: 45% - She was in the data - yatta yatta yatta - you've heard it a thousand times before.

Want: 60% - Still, though, it would be kind of cool to see her appear. Even Toon Link needs his Zelda. Two Links, two Zeldas, one Ganondorf...I don't know why but I like that.

Victini Prediction: 2.3 - His strong competition has strong competition.

Nominations:
Klonoa x5

 

[SchAlternate]

Diddy's sworn enemy
Likelihood: 99% - Wouldn't make any sense to remove her.
Want: 100% - She's basically a legend in Smash.

She's a pirate AND a princess!
Likelihood: 35% - Being in the game's data DOES NOT warrant a return. (still having high hopes for Mewtwo and Roy, though...)
Want: 5% - If it's Tetra alone, I'd give it a bigger score. But nah...

InVictini
Prediction: 4.5% - Yeah, uh, you see that Mewtwo guy over there? And Meowth? And Genesect? And Zoroark? And Sylveon? And Grimer? And Omastar? ...
Yeah, kid, you have a lot of competition ahead of you...

Nominations
Zero x5

 

[farvin111]

Sheik
Chance: 100%
She will not be going anywhere.
Want: 50%

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 15%
If there's going to be a 5th Zelda rep, she is a possibility. However, I don't see there being a 5th rep.
Want: 60%

VIctini: 6.11%
The competition is 2strong.

x5 Scrooge McDuck

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Sheik:

Chance: 100% - Zelda must have her sheik.
Want: 100%/

Toon Zelda/Tetra:
Chance: 20% - Tingle is more likely.
Want: 100% - Wanted it since Brawl.

Victini: 2.0%. - Way too much more important reps available.

Nominations:
x5 Sora

 

[FalKoopa]

Sheik:
Likelihood and Want: 100%

A popular two time veteran who is central to Zelda's gimmick is nowhere in the realm of being cut.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Likelihood: 30%
The most likely Zelda newcomer(s), imo. Toon Link's confirmation upped her chances a bit.

Want: 100%
I'm not much interested in Toon Zelda, though I might use her since I use Zelda semi-regularly. Tetra is one of my most wanted characters though.

Victini: 1.23%
His/her/its time has passed.

Donde & Hikari x 5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Sheik:

Likely: 100% - One of the more original fighters
Want: 100% - One of my mains in Melee/Brawl and it doesn't make sense for her to not return


Toon ZeldaTetra

Likelihood: 75% - She has a good shot, but there's a chance she might not get in. ONly good thing is that she has a chance due to being one of the Forbidden Seven
Want: 50% - I'm not a fan of seeing two Zeldas in the game like I am with Link, but characters like Impa and Vaati should get in over Toon Zelda.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Sheik: 99%
Want: 100%
Toon Zelda/Tetra: 50%
Want: 80%
Nominate:
Yarne x 5

 

[Groose]

Sheik Prediction: 96.43%
Diddy will swing by and give her a 30%. Everyone else will put her in the high 90's. Few will give her exactly 100% because Impa.

Let's take a gander...

Ratings: Chance: 30%

Sheik chance: 95%

Likelihood: 95%

sheik - 99.98%(the only reason I didn't give a 100, is because its not certain )

Sheik Chance: 99%

SheikChance: 95%

Chances: 97%- Sorry, Diddy.

Shiek: Chance: 97%

Sheik chances: 98.3%

I'm too lazy to go on. Seriosuly, if I don't win these extra noms...


Sheik Chance: 90%
I pinpoint about a 15% chance of SS Zelda taking over. I pinpoint about a 50% chance that Impa replaces Sheik if SS Zelda does make the cut. Using some math... ba da da da! That's a 7.5% of Impa replacing Sheik. Factor in another 2.5% for issues implementing the transformation and for time constraints, and you get 90% chance. Not to shabby, eh?

Sheik Want: 70%
I wouldn't mind too terribly if she were let go. Out with the old, in with the new, y'know? Part of me agrees with Diddy on this... why not let Impa in? Still, Sheik's more essential to the Smash experience than many other characters.

Toon Zelda/Tetra: 33%
With the prevalence of WWHD, it's probably between these guys, Tetra, Impa, and Ghirahim for a fifth Zelda slot. I'll give them the edge and say they're the most likely of all... but that's not saying too much. Heck, one of them might not even get in. But they still get about an 8% boost from my last rating, where I said that they would only be included if Toon Link was, and that Toon Link himself may be low-priority.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Want: 10%
I'm not a fan of clones, even if they are semi-clones. I don't see Toon Zelda being more than a semi-clone... Tetra could be interesting, but she could just pick up Sheik's needles and stuff. Still... I'd rather not have two Zelda's, y'know? WE WANT TINGLE!

Victini Prediction: 3.43%
If we had rated him a month ago (around when we did Genesect) he'd do double or triple what he'll get now. But X and Y have released and people have moved on.

Ray x5
I've got some stories to tell about Custom Robo... I'm actually trying to get my hands on a copy of it now to play it again. Can't wait for this day!

DAY OVER​

​

WILD GROOSE APPEARED​

 

[Deleted member]

I wonder how that 30% will factor in… if it will at all that is.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I think it will end up being around 67%

 

[Groose]

Sheik (Legend of Zelda)
93.57% chance
84.53% want

Not even the combined power of Diddy Kong and Impa could put much of a damper on Sheik's day. Everyone's favorite Sheikah sent a powerful in today's competition.

Toon Zelda/Tetra (Legend of Zelda)
38.69% chance (previously 23.69%)
49.60% want (previously 42.26%)

The release of WW:HD and the reveal of Toon Link helped Tetra sail to a 15% chance increase (on the dot) and a about a 7.50% want increase. Not to shabby, eh? She fell just shy of passing Saki in chance and came close to his score in want, too. As it is, she is now 14th overall. I'll update the results section... when I get a chance.

Today we'll be rating Victini! Will the Victory Pokemon be able to score a victory today? Please rate Victini in chance and want.

Tomorrow we'll be rating... Yarne. Oh dear. Please predict how well Yarne will do in tomorrow's match. I'll get to awarding extra noms later; I have no time now. Don't worry; I'll make note of it when I update tomorrow! BigAxle wins the extra five today!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Victini Chance: 5.6% I say he has a good chance, but Zoroark needs to happen first
Victini want: 50% Eh..
Yarne Prediction: 2.1% I sense overinflating with Yarne.
Nominations:
x5 Dr. Kawashima.

 

[Deleted member]

Victini
Chance: 8%
I think Victini does have at least a decent chance… compared to some of the other characters we've rated. It did have its own movie and that could factor in… though that movie came out years before Genesect's movie did (which featured Mewtwo). Victini suffers from tremendous competition… I can't see it get in over other potential Pokemon. Overall, I find Victini to be unlikely to be playable and find it to be more of a Poke Ball Pokemon.
Want: 70%
With that said, I think Victini would be a pretty cool addition and I think it would be more interesting to play as than Zoroark to be honest. I wouldn't be heartbroken if it didn't get in, but I would enjoy the inclusion.
Yarne Prediction: .20%
Yarne will beat Cole… but not by a long shot.
Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Victini - 5%

VIctini mainly suffers from a massive amount of competition. Including Mewtwo, Lucario, Zoroark and Genesect. I can't see Victini getting in.

Want - 30%

Eh, I guess Victini could be interesting, unique and fun, but there are many other characters I'd prefer over it.

Nominations - x5 Count Bleck.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Victini - 3%.

Too much competition.

Want - 2%.

No thanks, too many more important characters.

Yarne Prediction: 0.10%.

Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Victini - 0.057%
lets look at the list eh,
there is mewtwo, lucario, red, zoroark, genosect, some 6th generation rep, mewoth, and even another trainer with different starters.
he is a one time character from gen 5
he has no importance
he is not a mascot
we are far ahead of him
he has no chance to appear as a playable character, poke-ball possibly
want - 0%
if he got in, there would be a high chance of either mewtwo not returning, or Red cut (most likely Pokémon rep cut) both would make me frustrated and disappointed, to ends length.
Yarne - 0.78%
Who?!? guess I gotta get the old history book out for this one . . . . . . . .
so I'm an going to assume that I won 10 extra nomination's the other day sooooooooo . . . . . . . . .

I WON!!!!!!
(I know this is a little late but still, I couldn't help it )
so then its time to make my extra nominations well worth it:
[collapse=nominations]
dark pitX15

 

[Smasher 101]

Victini's chances: 3% - It''s not the most likely Pokemon newcomer and I don't think we're likely to get one to start out with. Has a good shot at being a Poke Ball Pokemon, however.
Want: 40% - There are other characters that I'd rather have but I would be ok with Victini.

Yarne prediction: 0.07% - I imagine we'll be seeing quite a few double zeroes with this one.

Ray x5

 

[Starcutter]

victini: 4%
want also 4%

yarne 4.44% because **** it all fours

noms:
Pichu x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Victini - 30% I think there will be 5 Pokemon slots. I think Mewtwo is coming back. There is a fair chance that Lucario (and a slim chance that Jiggs) won't return (there will be a trainer who may or may not have the same Pokemon). but there is a high chance a Pokemon in addition to Mewtwo will be on the roster. There are just aren't any many competitors for Victini. There isn't an outstanding sixth generation rep who is nearly as popular as Victini or Zoroark. Genesect is a hidden event Pokemon while Victini was there at launch, and being Masuda's favorite Pokemon is very important, as Pichu was his favorite once upon a time also.

predict Yarne 0.30% yuck.

Travis Touchdown x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Victini:
Chance: 0%
There are no hopes of victory here. Victini flies and levitates which frankly wouldn't work in Smash(or be broken as heck unless limited like Peach's float), other Pokemon are more popular; more wanted and Gamefreak have already moved on from it.
In terms of fire Pokemon newcomers: Blaziken is the latest event Pokemon, seems to be one they're pushing as well with Pokkun Fighters, a Mega form, First mega to appear in the anime, Hoenn remakes very much wanted by the fanbase, etc. There's also the inevitable return of the MOST POPULAR POKEMON OF ALL TIME; Charizard.
In terms of legendary newcomers he has competition with Genesect and of course Mewtwo, who is also a psychic type.
Also unlikely to be anything but a Pokeball Pokemon like all his tiny legendary brethren before him. I'm frankly surprised Victini was ever considered a potential Pokemon newcomer by anyone.
I don't usually like to hand out 0's, but it's got NOTHING going for it.

Want: 0%
Oh look, my want and chance percentages together matches it's Pokemon number!
Seems like a terrible idea to me. Unimportant in the games, in the anime, in the mangas...just one of a few dozen legendary Pokemon that will soon be forgotten like all it's predeccasors by the general Pokemon community that aren't Mewtwo or Mew.
In terms of Pokemon, I'd rather have Meowth. In terms of legendary Pokemon I'd rather have Mewtwo.

Yarne Prediction:
Measly 0.8%. Shame since he's not a lord, not a generic magician, and sums up how Fire Emblem works in his personality perfectly. At least I'll give him a nice big want score.

Nominations:
5 X Substantial Yoshi changes (Babies, Yarn)

 

[Fortanono]

Victini:

Chance: 10%
Victini is a Pokémon that doesn't have much chance, with competition around every corner with Mewtwo, Zoroark, and Genesect. I'm being generous by giving him 10%. But then again, I'm a little biased, because...

Want: 100%
Being my absolute favorite Pokémon of all time, having my 2 favorite types and being an awesome legendary in its own right, Victini is a Pokémon that I would LOVE to see in Smash.

I don't know who Yarne is.

Nominations:
Dawn (Sinnoh Trainer) x5

 

[Xenigma]

Rating Pokemon characters is generally unfortunate: with Pikachu confirmed, Jigglypuff an N64 veteran, and the Kanto starters, Lucario, and Mewtwo all making major appearances in X/Y? With Mario and Zelda both being questionable for five characters, can Pokemon dream of a sixth with five being so likely?

Victini - 0%
While it has a strong chance to appear as a Pokeball summon, Victini's time of prominence within Pokemon has already passed and, even if it hadn't, it would still have Zoroark and possibly Genesect to compete with. In any case, Gen V is locked out by a combination of poor timing like Gen III had with Brawl and Pokemon probably having five reps locked in already, so by extension Victini and other potential Gen V reps are out.
Want - 75% - I love the little guy, though Victini wouldn't be my first pick for a new Pokemon rep.

Yarne Prediction - 0.2%
Heck, Chancellor Cole probably has a better claim to Smash 4 than poor old Yarne does, though I'm not sure he'll do quite that poorly.

Nominations
Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

victini: 4%
want also 4%

yarne 4.44% because **** it all fours

All fives might be more appropriate, considering Victini's "v" motif.

Victini: 0.10%
It isn't significant enough-its Unova Regional Dex number was zero. It's also really tiny.

Want: 2%
I don't really think it's very interesting, as far as Legendaries go.

Yam prediction: 0.83%

Nominate:
Lucina x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Sigh ... we're back to this again

Victini - 1%
Not zero because heck, there's a really tiny chance that Sakurai loses a bet. Aside from that, Victini in this game makes no sense. Too much competition, too many pokemon with greater merit. The fact Victini has gotten as much attention in X and Y as a fart in the wind should really bring home the point of just how unlikely this thing is.

Want - 0%
No thanks. Pokemon does not need new reps, just Mewtwo to come back. And even if we get new characters, there's so many better ways to go. Blaziken, New pokemon trainer, even Genesect (although really not by much.)

Predictions
Yarne - 0.36%
We've been dreading this day for a while. Ideally I'd expect Cole levels, but sadly I imagine some Fire Emblem fans of Yarne will inflate the score above 0%

Nominations
x5 Sheriff

 

[Groose]

Whew. Music section and results updated. YAY! Please let me know if there are still any mistakes.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Victini:

Chance: 0.13%
That's quite high by pokémon standards, but really, the five veterans, Meowth and Hoenn Trainer pretty much covers the pokémon important/popular enough for smash... with a possible Plusle and Minun / Gardevoir standing further back and then a jumble of everyone else... Victini stands as one of the top of said jumble, but that's not saying much.


Want: 20%
I like the guy, he's a cool mon, and I've used him in teams; I'd be cool with him, but feel he's a bit of a wasted slot.


Yarne: 0.2%
I really wish I could say 'who?' to this and mean it...


Tails*5

*I'm too ill for lyrics*

 

[BluePikmin11]

Am I able to suggest music for a certain character early before the character gets to the top of the nominations list.

 

[Groose]

Am I able to suggest music for a certain character early before the character gets to the top of the nominations list.

Yeah. I'll try to get it in; if I don't, just remind me when their day is up.

*I'm too ill for lyrics*

Feel better, mate! What's the problem?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Thanks. Because I'm suggesting some Brain Age music when Dr. Kawashima comes to the be rated in chance and want. Very anticipated actually for the day.

Spoiler

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This video has bad sound quality though, it's the only Brain Age 2 music video though.​

 

[DarkKry4]

Victini

Chance - 0%
There is no way he is going to be a playable character. No chance in hell.

Want - 0%
I think he deserves to be roadkill. I DON'T LIKE IT!

It's name reminds me of pasta too

Yarne - .45%

x5 Rosalina

 

[Gunla]

Victini

Chances- 1.4%- I will refrain from going on a long tangent as to why I think this way.

Want- 1%- There's Mewtwo, whom Sakurai has expressed desire to put into Smash 4 in some way. Would prefer that.

Yarne- 2.3%- No, guys. Please. Not to be insulting, but another Fire Emblem Character, who likely has no chances at all?

I'm going to save my noms for now. :3
Now what to Nominate, for that matter...
Omaster. X5. yes, I'm going there.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Victini: 2%
Want: 0.99%

Yarne: 0.99%

x5 Excitebiker