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[Nat Perry]

R.O.B sentry is actually smaller and their model is not identical to playable R.O.B as stated here

Haha yeah I just edited my post after comparing images, you are correct.

MY POINT STILL STANDS!!!!!!

I'LL STATE IT AGAIN BECAUSE I'M STOKED TO HAVE MADE A CURRENTLY TRUE PATTERN/THEORY TO COUNTER THOSE WHO FAVOR PATTERNS/THEORIES OVER EVIDENCE!

We've never been shown a newcomer's fighting model prior to its official reveal!​

BAM! Theory stated. Unrefuted. Booyah.

I'm so thrilled to have a solid theory in place. Really, it's great.

Then again, it's just a theory. A mere theory.

 

[Kalimdori]

I have to say before anything I agree with most of your points there but have to disagree with most of these.
Toon Link wasn't shown until confirmed, yeah yeah a Link appeared in the Spirit Tracks stage, but IF we are tecnical that is not the same Link that is Spirit Tracks Link while playable Toon Link is Windwaker's, proof? he use the windwaker they decided to go with the Alfonzo scenario only to not cause confusion. Yeah a really picky argument, but tecnically truth.

YET again we got "MII FIGHTERS" while the characters previously shown are simply called "MIIS" their body constituion aren't even the same that is why they are put with the Smash emblem, yeah not the strongest of arguments but is still there.

I dissagree with this one, since when a statue = character? I can go and see a statue does it mean I KNOW the person it represents? the answer is NO you can keep saying it still shows her but to me a statue is far from showing a person or in this scenario showing the actual character. I can't say I know Washington or meet him only by looking at a statue
Your only undisputed character (for this scenario)

I don't even know why you bring this up when Ridley hasn't been shown, a shadow and his tail are far for showing him so you don't even need to bring these characters up to make a valid argument.


As said before while I agree with most of your post I dissagree with your reasoning here.

Acording to you, SHOWING a character with no playable role confirmed, actually hints them? that is far from what Sakurai has done until now.

And before you point Mr. Game and Watch scenario again yes he is the only exception for VETERANS, if we look at the pattern shown for every newcomer, they are flat out confirmed when Sakurai decide to show them in a trailer.

Since every character you point out could be a potencial NEWCOMER, don't actually prove your point, you can say that is subjetive but then I will ask you what NEWCOMER has been shown in a trailer and not being confirmed right away? you and I know the answer.

Zoroark you answered yourself, not shown in a DEMO, he could be a smash run enemy too. Playable? NO

Lip: before hand I have to say I love Lip mostly because of Captain Rainbow let's play.
Lip's Stick IS her signature WEAPON, Mario does use Fire Flowers and Mushrooms you are right but even in his own series there are tons of them, not so unique right?
I said this in the past but let's say it again: when we get: Master Sword, Galacta, Ragnell and Falchion as both items and signature weapons for the characters that use them, then and only then Lip still stands a chance. Comparing Lip's signature weapon with Fire flower and other items that are found by dozens in games don't make Lip any justice. And for the record I would take Lip before Takamaru as a retro any day, but let's be realistic.

Wonder Red, Tiki and Rayman.
Honestly if a trophy shown don't convince you they aren´t playable then you don't want to see the truth, but we can go check things back
Toon Link =/= Spirit tracks Link
Mii FIGHTERS =/= Mii
Statue, Pseudo Palutena =/= Palutena herself
Shadow =/= Ridley shown

SO yeah it's safe to say every theorized newcomer character shown as a trophy and on trailers and not confirmed = NOT PLAYABLE.

So you think we are getting 5 FIRE EMBLEM characters? Tiki is easily in my top 5 but I am realistic.
The sad thing is people are so stubborn that a trophy or a character shown without the "not playable words" make them think they got a shot when Sakurai HAS NEVER doing that before.

• Show me a trophy that was latter confimed a playable character
• Show me a newcomer that appered in a trailer without a confirmation
• There are words that don't need to be said because the actions and evidence of the past totally contradicts the idea, to even make them posible

But I will finish this putting you in this scenario: YOU are Sakurai, you said every NEWCOMER would get its trailer reveal, these are you tools to hype people, to make them buy YOUR game, a console future IS in YOUR hands, will you go and make all of them a fancy trailer only to SHOWN some of them BEFORE as TROPHIES?

YOU want to get the maximun reacting for PEOPLE, showing a trophy and then make the character playable, will certainly catch people off guard, but if you go around doing that PEOPLE will catch up, then every trophy they see would make them think that character is expected, by the time you show the trailer the hype wouldn't be the same, because everybody expect you to do so.

What did you achieve? putting people off guard THE FIRST TIME, for the rest everyone would expect that, and people would lose interest. NOT a smart BUSINESS strategy and a really cheap way to "show" theorised NEWCOMERS.

As a bussiness perspective the best to do is actually reveal a character out of no where in a trailer. You can even tease them but you don't play your cards until the right time

WFT , Villager, Megaman, Rosalina, Little Mac, Greninja, Palutena, Mii fighters, Pacman, Lucina and Robin everyone with a proper introduction, calling characters like trophies as posible go against everything Sakurai has shown as far as NEWCOMERS are concerned.

I agree mostly with your Ridley analisis. I am only sharing my opinion here so hope you don't take it the wrong way or think I am antagonizing you. Greetings

Yikes. That's a big post...

I'm impressed (and slightly honored) that you devoted so much time to respond to me. However, I disagree with most of what you said.

To the part, you yourself say two out of three of those are really picky and shallow arguments, which I agree with, so I won't bother with those two. And with Palutena, well, trophies are statues to. But seriously, in my opinion it doesn't hold much of an argument (To me, obviously it does to you) that people claim a trophy disconfirms a character when Sakurai doesn't specify that they aren't playable.

And I'd like to point out that I clarified that I thought each of the listed characters was unlikely, however, that does not mean they are impossible. I don't think Tiki has a remote chance, Zoroark and Lip have very very slim chances, Isa, Wonder Red and Rayman (Might as well throw Dark Pit into this) are unlikely. (Although I consider Rayman to have the best shot, but I'll go into that argument when I finish nominating him)

"What NEWCOMER has been shown in a trailer and not being confirmed right away? you and I know the answer."

You are right. None have been shown and not immediately confirmed. And once we know the final roster, we will know it is a fact that Sakurai stayed true to this. But as of right now, this is only an assumption and can not be used as a basis of fact.

But I will finish this putting you in this scenario: YOU are Sakurai, you said every NEWCOMER would get its trailer reveal, these are you tools to hype people, to make them buy YOUR game, a console future IS in YOUR hands, will you go and make all of them a fancy trailer only to SHOWN some of them BEFORE as TROPHIES?

YOU want to get the maximun reacting for PEOPLE, showing a trophy and then make the character playable, will certainly catch people off guard, but if you go around doing that PEOPLE will catch up, then every trophy they see would make them think that character is expected, by the time you show the trailer the hype wouldn't be the same, because everybody expect you to do so.

What did you achieve? putting people off guard THE FIRST TIME, for the rest everyone would expect that, and people would lose interest. NOT a smart BUSINESS strategy and a really cheap way to "show" theorised NEWCOMERS.

As a bussiness perspective the best to do is actually reveal a character out of no where in a trailer. You can even tease them but you don't play your cards until the right time

So you want me to put myself in Sakurai's shoes? Yes. I would definitely do that, in a heartbeat.

Why?

You said people will be caught off guard the first time. That means it's an effective strategy the first time, ergo, I would do it once, either in the same trailer, or not announcing them until the final roster is revealed.

There are only 2 trophies that realistically fit into that situation (I listed Tiki with them off a technicality), Wonder Red and Rayman. Who's to say these can't both be in the game as characters? Your claiming that can't happen because it hasn't happened, but so many things have already happened in this iteration of Smash that haven't before. You are trying to predict what Sakurai is planning on doing. But that is just a prediction, not a fact. It is a fact that it hasn't been done before, but that doesn't mean it can't.

If you can give me a valid reason of why this can't happen, then I still stand by what I said. Because all I'm hearing from your arguments is that Sakurai has never done it, so he won't do it, and that's not good enough. Sakurai has already done plenty of things that haven't happened before in a Smash game, there is NO reason to believe he can't do it.

He probably won't, but that doesn't mean he can't. Until the final roster is actually known, I will still argue that the characters I listed in my arguments have not been given enough of a reason to warrant a disconfirmation.

 

[ShrekItRalph]

Yikes. That's a big post...

How appropriate, given the subject matter.

 

[Glaciacott]

Well, been gone for a while. Lots of busy days. BUT, I came back for a good one

Chibi Robo
Chance: 1%
I think his chance died with so much competition

Want - 50%
Meh

Ridley
Chance - 50%
I am really really unsure. I Agree it would be really strange for them to tease him so much without naming him or actually explaining the Pyrosphere stage.
For context, it's almost been A YEAR, since Pyrosphere was mentioned and the reference to Ridley made.
I seriously don't know what to expect and could see it going either way. I can see him being playable as much as I can see the stage hazard being him as a boss at this point.

Want - 100%
I want to live the moment of Ridley being revealed live. The internet will break, it would be such a fantastic occasion. It would be the best surprise we could get, and I hope it comes true.
I think Ridley stands at the top of my most wanted. While I like other characters more (Rhythm Heaven, Porky) the idea of Ridley in Smash would be such a great, historic moment that I want it more than anything now Palutena is in and comfortable.

 

[Nat Perry]

We've never been shown a newcomer's fighting model prior to its official reveal!

Man, what a theory, I'm so proud of that one.

I can't wait to watch all of our theories and speculation burn to ashes once we finally see what's really in the game. Then we'll probably be able to see things clearly and realize how ridiculous we (including myself) have acted.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Ridley
Chance: 60%
Yeah, fighter models haven't been seen before release but the way this one was shown was too supicious to call deconfirmed.
But I have a theory why that is:
Sakurai actually wants to tease Ridley's boss role:
He made an entire segment on how genius and revolutionary boss hazards are, and I think the tease was like: OOOH LOOK WHO'S GONNA BE ON THIS STAGE LOOK ITS RIDLEY I HEARD YOU LIKE RIDLEY AND I MADE HIM JUST AS INTERACTIVE AND GOOD AS THE YD OOH AREN'T YOU CURIOUS TO WHAT HE DOES NO?l

But as I said, a shadow is still to weird to deconfirm instantly, Sakurai has never mentioned his name and the game he developed is just one big trollfest.
That and he has other non-shadow merits like popularity and more shadow merits like the Shadow Analysis.
I won't go much higher since I think the boss hazard is still possible.

Want: 90%

Chibi NObo:
Chance: 6%
NO

Want: 0%
NO

OMNIMNOMNOMS
Mega Mewtwo Y x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Ridley:

Chance: 65%
Outside of Shulk I consider Ridley the most likely newcomer candidate at this point. Others have already narrowed it down, so I'm just going to add the little detail that we have no heavy weight newcomers yet, and Gematsu doesn't list one either, I certainly don't believe we're going to be getting this game without at least one of them as that leaves a rather big gameplay factor out of the Smash 4 cast. Of course that could always go to K. Rool too, and I'm still not as confident as many of my fellow supporters, but I still think he's more likely than not.

Want: 100%
Once more I'll state that Ridley makes or breaks everything in regards to newcomers for me, if not for Ridley I'd have skipped the entire speculation phase for this game. Favorite video game character of all-time, blah blah, you've heard it all from me a ton of times at this point. I'm still ticked I can't vote higher too, numbers can't describe how much I want this to happen.

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Ridley:
Chance: 85%
This guy summed things up perfectly.

.

Spoiler

Ridley. It's possible that this has been the single most controversial character topic in Smash history. For all the support he receives, there's also a huge number of people who believe that a playable Ridley is simply impossible at this point. Now, I'd like to tackle this topic myself, and perhaps give people a better idea of just what Ridley's chances are at this point. So, to start things off, let's take a look at Ridley's credentials.

Why should Ridley be in Smash?
For the very few of you who don't already know, Ridley is the main antagonist of the Metroid series, one of Nintendo's most successful series, and is the most recurring character in the series besides Samus herself. Within the context of the games, Ridley is the one responsible for murdering Samus' parents when she was a child, unknowingly creating his arch-nemesis in the process. In that sense, Ridley is the one who started the plot of the entire Metroid series. In almost every Metroid game, Samus has to constantly confront Ridley is some form or another, and somehow he is always able to come back and fight another day. Frankly, Ridley is a pretty important Metroid character, and by extension, is an important Nintendo character. As a result, he would be an excellent choice for Smash.

Now of course, there is a huge amount of controversy about why Ridley shouldn't be in Smash, which usually has to do with him being "too big." However, I do not intend to dwell on that topic, so here's my brief response to that issue: size does not matter in Smash, characters are resized all the time, and there is no reason that Ridley has to be an exception to this rule. Now, with that out of the way, I'd like to talk about about something else: the Ridley we've seen in Smash. Ridley is rather unique among potential Smash characters in that we have already seen him in the game. Or rather, we've seen his shadow, which was shown during a segment of a Smash Direct that talked about the appearance of other boss characters. Considering how Ridley seemed to be teased as a boss character, and considering how he was already a boss in Brawl, it would seem that the logical conclusion would be that Ridley is simply a boss hazard on the Pyrosphere stage, and therefore is de-confirmed. However, I believe that there is more to this than meets the eye.

So, let's take a look at a few points that show why this "de-confirmation" may not actually de-confirm Ridley, and that maybe, just maybe, this could actually help Ridley's chances.

1.) How Sakurai usually de-confirms characters
As unpredictable as Sakurai is, he does have a few patterns that he follows in how he handles some of his reveals. One of these is how he typically de-confirms characters. When he reveals that a character isn't playable, he is quick and to the point about it. He doesn't tease the character beforehand or allow for much opportunity for people to think the character in question may be playable, he just outright de-confirms them. Here are just a few examples of how Sakurai has previously treated non-playable characters.

https://miiverse.nintendo.net/posts/AYMHAAACAABnUYnZZEvggg
https://miiverse.nintendo.net/posts/AYMHAAACAAAYUKlLqsgn_Q
https://miiverse.nintendo.net/posts/AYMHAAACAADMUKluq9DPhw

As you can see, Sakurai is usually quite clear when he de-confirms characters, and it would seem that he likes to avoid creating unnecessary confusion or false hope amongst fans. This tendency of his was made even more apparent after the recent reveal of Robin and Lucina, when Nintendo made an official statement that Chrom would not be playable after he appeared at the end of Robin's trailer. So what about Ridley? It seems quite clear that Sakurai was teasing Ridley as a boss in that Direct. If that really is all Ridley is, why did Sakurai not clarify what he was? Even if he didn't want to actually show Ridley just yet, it would have been easy and beneficial if he just stated outright that Ridley would not be playable to avoid giving fans false hope. In fact, despite Ridley being heavily teased as a boss, we have yet to see any more of Ridley since the Direct. Despite being teased for almost a whole year now, ever since the reveal of the Pyrosphere, we have been given very little information regarding just what Ridley's role in the game is. If Ridley truly is a boss, there is very little reason for them not to show him at this point, and the way Sakurai has been treating Ridley does not match up at all with how he's previously de-confirmed characters.

2.) How Sakurai has teased newcomers

Just like how Sakurai has a certain method in which he de-confirms characters, he also has a certain method he uses to tease some of the newcomers we've seen so far. The best example of this is Palutena. Prior to her reveal, a new Kid Icarus stage was revealed that featured a Palutena statue. Along with the update came a comment that referred to the statue as a statue of "the Goddess of Light," which also mentioned how she was watching over the battlefield. This is rather interesting because Sakurai was clearly referring to Palutena, yet did not mention her by name, and the way he worded the comment almost made it sound like Palutena would just be a statue in the game. Later on in the Smash Direct, one of the Trophy Quizzes showed off a trophy of Pseudo Palutena, although at first it was shown from an angle that made the trophy look like the real Palutena. This gave a number of Palutena supporters a brief scare. At this point, it was clear that Sakurai was teasing Palutena in some way, and many believed that it was leading to an official confirmation. As it turned out, Palutena was indeed confirmed to be playable at E3.

Looking back, how did Sakurai tease Palutena? He hinted at her presence in the game (though never directly referred to her), and presented the situation in such a way that it appeared to some that she was not going to be playable, ultimately leading to her official reveal. This actually matches up quite well with how Ridley has been teased for so long; his presence in the game has been hinted at, though he has yet to be addressed by name, and he's been presented in such a way that it appears that he won't be playable. When you think about it, it makes sense for Sakurai to make it seem like characters people really want in the game are not playable, only to reveal them as playable later on. After all, it's much more exciting when a character you thought was unlikely gets in than when a character you thought was a guarantee is revealed. So perhaps Sakurai is doing what he did with Palutena to Ridley, in order to maximize hype when he's finally revealed.

3.) Ridley's size

Well, I did say I wasn't going to dwell on the topic of Ridley's size, but this is a somewhat different issue. As we all know, Ridley is a rather large creature, usually about twice Samus' height or more. Also, bosses in Smash are typically large, so that it's harder to dodge their attacks and easier for you to hit them. So, logically, if Ridley is a boss on the Pyrosphere stage, he would be large, and likely significantly bigger than a playable character. However, it appears that the Ridley we saw in the Direct may not be all that large. Basically, shadows on the Pyrosphere appear to be mostly static in size. Because of this, it is possible to get a rough idea of how big Ridley is compared to other characters. Here's an example of such a comparison (keep in mind that these are not 100% accurate).

Spoiler

Looking at this, it would seem that Ridley is relatively close to the size of Bowser. If that's the case, then that means that Ridley has been resized. Why would they shrink Ridley down just to make him a boss? Wouldn't that be counter-productive to making an effective boss? Speaking of effective bosses, that brings me to my next point.

4.) The Ridley we saw does not act like a typical Smash boss

In previous Smash games, bosses have typically followed a fairly basic attack pattern: stand still on part of the stage (usually the left or right ends), followed by either an attack or the boss moving to the other side of the stage while attacking (all this is usually done quickly). This is the basic pattern most bosses in Brawl followed (most notably, Ridley followed this pattern when he was a boss), and judging by how the Yellow Devil functions, it appears that pattern has carried over to this installment of Smash as well. So how does the Ridley we saw in the Direct act, and how does that compare to previous Smash bosses?

Well, Ridley starts out by flying in (slowly) from the right end of the stage, stops in the middle, does nothing for a few seconds, then (slowly) flies over to the left of the stage, and then immediately turns around and starts flying (slowly) towards the right. It's movements are also somewhat jerky and not very fluid.

First of all, that behavior does not match up at all with how Smash bosses typically function. What's most notable about how this Ridley acts is that, within the entire span of time he's on screen, there is no indication that he ever made an attack. Even his basic movements across the stage seem too slow to actually cause damage. That's a good ten seconds or so without a single aggressive move. That not only fails to match how bosses usually function, but frankly, that's just a bad boss design. This "boss" Ridley is essentially a mobile piñata. Not to mention the fact that this would be a very poor representation of Ridley, considering that he's usually a very fast and aggressive opponent in the Metroid games. If this is really a boss Ridley we're seeing, then it's a very poorly designed boss in practically every aspect.

Conclusion
So, what does this all mean? Well, we know that Sakurai usually goes out of his way to clarify when a character is or isn't playable, so it's odd that he has yet to officially de-confirm Ridley. We know that he can ambiguously refer to newcomers prior to their reveals and can tease them in such a way that makes it seem as if they may not be playable, which he has done for both Palutena and Ridley (though whether or not he's playable has yet to be seen). We know that the Ridley we saw in the Direct is not that large, meaning that he could possibly be at a playable size. And we know that the Ridley we saw acts very uncharacteristically for a Smash boss, or just well designed bosses in general. If Ridley really is a boss on the Pyrosphere, then that means that Sakurai, for almost an entire year now, has been teasing and hyping up a relatively small, slow, and fairly harmless boss version of a highly requested and controversial character. While that is a definite possibility, it seems somewhat unlikely. What is perhaps more likely is that Sakurai has been teasing a playable Ridley all this time, lowering our hopes in an elaborate attempt to maximize hype when Ridley finally makes his Smash debut.

Props to @ Kalimdori and @Nimbostratus as well for their walls of texts in favour of Ridley.

Basically: Sakurai = = RIDLEY CONFIRMED! = RIDLEY IS NOT TOO BIG!
I rest my case.

To the part, you yourself say two out of three of those are really picky and shallow arguments, which I agree with, so I won't bother with those two. And with Palutena, well, trophies are statues to. But seriously, in my opinion it doesn't hold much of an argument (To me, obviously it does to you) that people claim a trophy disconfirms a character when Sakurai doesn't specify that they aren't playable.

Interestingly, Palutena had pretty much the exact same situation as Ridley did before she was revealed. Never mentioned by name (or at least not directly as "Palutena's Temple" includes her name but is not directly referring to her) and incredibly teased. I predict history will repeat itself with Ridley.

Want: 85%
I have only played Super Metroid... actually, that's a lie. I haven't gone through the whole game yet. I'm taking my time with it okay! Even if I haven't played a Metroid game fully, I do not deny how awesome it'd be to FINALLY see him playable in all his glory!

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 10%
I would give him a higher chance if there were more space in the roster.
Want: 55%
Yeah I kinda like Chibi. He reminds me of ROB, and I like ROB. Nuff said.

Predictions:
Crash Bandicoot - 0%
Tropical Freeze representation - 37.56%
Purchasable DLC fighters - 44.5%

Nominations:
5 x whatever @ Groose is nominating.
I can't think of anything else and he said it was good.


Also, even though this game will be gone soon, I want to thank all people who ran this game. This was the first thread I posted on and that means a lot to me.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I think I've gotten lost... Ridley's fighter model wasn't shown, all we saw is his shadow... or is this about something else entirely?

 

[Kenith]

Props to @ Kalimdori and @Nimbostratus as well for their walls of texts in favour of Ridley.

What happened to my wall of text?
Well, I'd say it's more of a fence but still...

 

[a Link to the Forums]

What happened to my wall of text?
Well, I'd say it's more of a fence but still...

Yeah, sorry. Yours is great as well.

 

[Nat Perry]

I think I've gotten lost... Ridley's fighter model wasn't shown, all we saw is his shadow... or is this about something else entirely?

We saw part of his model, specifically his tail, and then his shadow. He was shown in that way, though we haven't seen his entire form yet.

It still counts as seeing him...we just haven't seen all of him. Like, that was definitely Other M Ridley, in motion, no denying it. While his role is ambiguous, we know he's in the game. So we either saw part of his character model, or his boss model, and it's likely it's the latter.

Here's a more accurate statement.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model prior to their official reveal.

Damn I love using big text.

Of course when we actually see the rest of the game all our cute little theories and speculation will be reduced to nothing and we can all laugh about it.



Our theories will be as fleeting as a flock of Beezos blown by a Tweester in the Dry Dry Desert.

 

[JaidynReiman]

The argument are too big to post here, and everyone is already doing it anyway.

http://smashboards.com/threads/the-...-the-detractors-paradise.324284/#post-1460937

Ridley
Chance: 95%, I'd go higher but I won't rate a chance score above 95%.
Want: 85%, I think he's in, but he's not my most wanted pick and if he doesn't end up in, I'll be a bit annoyed but its not a major deal for me. That said, the reason its this high is because, hell, he's a ****ing space dragon, and I just want the controversy to end. Hell, the controversy is the biggest reason I want him in.

Chibi-Robo
20%, I don't think he's likely.
35%, I'm indifferent, but he doesn't interest me that much at all.

 

[DACSHeyes]

Ridley
77% Chance
77% Want
Chibi-Robo
15% Chance
0% Want

 

[YoshiandToad]

Ridley

Chance: 75%
I'm leaning more towards playable than not. Still think the shadow's movement pattern was bizarre for an AI boss. Many reasons above have also swayed me slightly. Anyone who thinks he'll be DLC is a deluded fool though; he's in Smash already the question is just what role?

Want: 70%
Not a Metroid fan myself, but I want Ridley for a few reasons:

1. Sakurai KNOWS how many in the west want this dragon.
2. Sakurai's teasing is getting tiresome.
3. Fanbase have patiently waited since Melee for a playable Ridley(with the cinematic opening teasing him) and I want them to get what they wanted for so long finally.
   
4. It'll put an end to all Ridley arguments.

Here however is a reason I DON'T want Ridley:

His Other M design is pretty terrible and I feel with everything else Metroid related being Other M designed I fear we'll end up with the Ridley that crawls across the floor rather than ravages the skies...still if that's good enough for the fans, I guess I can't complain.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 20%
Relatively popular unrepped series...not quite at the fan demand level of Xenoblade or Golden Sun but still a reasonable option.

Want: 70%
Again; not played a single game of his, but he seems like a worthwhile addition with some neat quirky options available to him. Not on my most wanted list, but if I was going for unrepped franchises he'd certainly be within the top ten.

Predictions:
Crash Bandicoot: 0.19%
Popular in the day, but he's far bigger a Playstation All Star than a Super Smash Bros...and he still couldn't get into PSAS despite being one of the top three PS stars...actually neither did the other two in Spyro and Lara Croft. Worst All Stars game ever.

Tropical Freeze representation: 43%
Dixie Kong, ya'll.

Purchasable DLC Fighters: 20%
Gematsu Leak debunked, people will question every aspect it suggested would happen now.

Nominations:
Balance Patches X 5
Chances of us recieving balance patches so we don't end up with yet another Metaknight situation essentially.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Well, what the hell?

Nominations:
x5 Brash the Friggin’ Bear


Just to get this stupid thing out of the way for BKupa's sake.

 

[DustyPumpkin]

Ridley -
Chance : 90%
There is nothing I can say that hasn't already been said.
Want: 100%

Chibi Robo -
Chance - 10%
There's always a chance
Want - 90%

 

[Toxicroaker]

Chibi-Robo: 5%
Want: 50%

Ridley: 15%
Want: 100%

Purchasable DLC: 76.54%
Crash Bandicoot: 1.24%
Tropical Freeze Representation: 54.7%

x5 Moo Moo Meadows Music

 

[NintenRob]

We saw part of his model, specifically his tail, and then his shadow. He was shown in that way, though we haven't seen his entire form yet.

It still counts as seeing him...we just haven't seen all of him. Like, that was definitely Other M Ridley, in motion, no denying it. While his role is ambiguous, we know he's in the game. So we either saw part of his character model, or his boss model, and it's likely it's the latter.

Here's a more accurate statement.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model prior to their official reveal.

Damn I love using big text.

Of course when we actually see the rest of the game all our cute little theories and speculation will be reduced to nothing and we can all laugh about it.



Our theories will be as fleeting as a flock of Beezos blown by a Tweester in the Dry Dry Desert.

Pichu and Ganondorf would like a word with you.

 

[Kenith]

Wow. The ratings for Ridley here are either 100% or 0% today.

 

[andimidna]

We saw part of his model, specifically his tail, and then his shadow. He was shown in that way, though we haven't seen his entire form yet.

It still counts as seeing him...we just haven't seen all of him. Like, that was definitely Other M Ridley, in motion, no denying it. While his role is ambiguous, we know he's in the game. So we either saw part of his character model, or his boss model, and it's likely it's the latter.

Here's a more accurate statement.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model prior to their official reveal.

Damn I love using big text.

Of course when we actually see the rest of the game all our cute little theories and speculation will be reduced to nothing and we can all laugh about it.



Our theories will be as fleeting as a flock of Beezos blown by a Tweester in the Dry Dry Desert.

You keep Saying that, yet Palutena's statue matches her playable model. And we weren't seen Ridleys model. Also, this is Ridley, a big deal, if Anybody is going to be trolled about it'd be him. You can't go off patterns 100% when there's always the possibility of an exception. Like Miis an Their icon. Also, I don't know if you believe the Palutena leak but there's always That too

Predictions:
Crash: 0%
$$$ DLC newcomers: 17%
TF rep: 43%

 

[Nat Perry]

You keep Saying that, yet Palutena's statue matches her playable model. And we weren't seen Ridleys model. Also, this is Ridley, a big deal, if Anybody is going to be trolled about it'd be him. You can't go off patterns 100% when there's always the possibility of an exception. Like Miis an Their icon. Also, I don't know if you believe the Palutena leak but there's always That too

Predictions:
Crash: 0%
$$$ DLC newcomers: 17%
TF rep: 43%

Point is, is that that's her statue. Not her playable model. Also the Palutena leak was not shown to us by Sakurai, as it is a leak, after all.

I'm just happy to find a true pattern. Just let me be happy for a bit haha.

Pichu and Ganondorf would like a word with you.

That was in the game.

This is pre-release.

Goddammit, fine. Here's the most accurate statement.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model by Sakurai prior to their official reveal pre-release.
​

Just gonna leave this here and let this statement defend itself.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Wow. The ratings for Ridley here are either 100% or 0% today.

That's because it all boils down to how people treat what we know about Ridley's inclusion. Most think the Smash Direct blatantly disconfirmed him, others thing it was actually a troll and that the shadow, his movement, and lack of officially revealing Ridley is actually a tease for him being playable rather than a disconfirmation.

 

[NintenRob]

Point is, is that that's her statue. Not her playable model. Also the Palutena leak was not shown to us by Sakurai, as it is a leak, after all.

I'm just happy to find a true pattern. Just let me be happy for a bit haha.



That was in the game.

This is pre-release.

Goddammit, fine. Here's the most accurate statement.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model by Sakurai prior to their official reveal pre-release.
​

Just gonna leave this here and let this statement defend itself.

What?

 

[Nat Perry]

What?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but were no "character reveals" in the Melee days, only videos and trailers and letting the players unlock the characters.

 

[JaidynReiman]

What?

Nat Perry is trolling/joking. What he's arguing is that every time a legitimate piece of "evidence" towards a pattern occurs, something comes up that destroys the pattern, so he keeps amending the pattern in order for it to still "technically" be correct.

Although that argument doesn't work, because that was actually a leak I think...

 

[Kenith]

That's because it all boils down to how people treat what we know about Ridley's inclusion. Most think the Smash Direct blatantly disconfirmed him, others thing it was actually a troll and that the shadow, his movement, and lack of officially revealing Ridley is actually a tease for him being playable rather than a disconfirmation.

I know, I just think it's funny.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but were no "character reveals" in the Melee days, only videos and trailers and letting the players unlock the characters.

Melee did actually have a website where characters were gradually added on. All starters were revealed pre-release, but unlockable characters like Jigglypuff (who happens to be in the intro and trailer) were only added on the site post-release. Of course Jiggs wasn't a newcomer, so there's that.

 

[Nat Perry]

DANG IT.

Okay. Final amended statement. 100% accurate.

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model by Sakurai prior to their official reveal pre-release for Brawl on.

F***, awwww this sucks so hard, I almost had a legit pattern that spread across all 4 games and now it spreads across only two...

Daaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I feel so bad for myself.

God dang it.

Ughh.

Still beats the Trophy Quiz theory.

 

[andimidna]

Also the Palutena leak was not shown to us by Sakurai

Proof?

We've never partially or completely been shown a newcomer's fighter model by Sakurai prior to their official reveal pre-release.
.​

Right. Well, except Ridley's.

 

[Nat Perry]

Exactly, Ridley is what I was getting that.

Dawww man I almost had a pattern over 4 games, that would have been soooo legit.

Damn it hahaha. So close.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

I'm looking at these long posts and while I was planning on giving Ridley basically 100% anyway, I was also going to write up one of those.
Thanks for reducing the workload I guess
Ridley:
Chance - 1000%
Want - 1000%
Yes, I know, those numbers are WAY TOO BIG. But as some people have mentioned above me, this teasing has to have a positive payout. It simply has to.
Just read the posts above. (Also, Groose, as you know already just use 100s)
As for Chibi-Robo...
Chibi-Robo:

You won't get any sympathy from me. Quite frankly I don't see it having much fighting potential not already covered by other fighters - especially villager or R.O.B - so it's hardly going to be noticed by the big S. As for my want, I was never a fan of the series (tried a game once, got bored) and while it's cute... Eh.
As usual though these reasonings sound dumb in hindsight and will probably cause controversy again so in the event of a possible argument, I shall leave a sad kitten here.

(also, Dry Bowser costume x5)

 

[Pacack]

I never posted my predictions and nominations, so here:

Purchasable DLC Newcomers: 44.44%
Crash Bandicoot: 3.34%
Tropical Freeze Representation: 33.34%

Nominations: Takamaru x5

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Ridley

Chances: 90%- See above (or perhaps below) this post.

Want: 100%- One of my most-wanteds, and he's a goddamn space dragon-pterodactyl hybrid thing.''


Chibi-Robo

Chance: 30%- I feel like Chibi is getting a little bit underrated, but I feel like he has a kinda decent chance.

Want: 100%- While not in my most-wanted list, Chibi-Robo(the first one) is one of my favorite games. Plus, Chibi is adorable.



Nominate Petey Piranha x5

 

[Louie G.]

Ridley:

Chance: 50%
I'm not necessarily sure about Ridley right now. He was teased as a boss, however it's very strange that Ridley was not shown, and furthermore Ridley's shadow movement and size are a bit off for a boss. I'm prepared for either situation, and I wouldn't be surprised with either outcome.

Want: 100%
Ridley's one of my most wanted, plain and simple. A big ol' aerial based heavyweight with a flying mechanic is such a cool playstyle, not to mention Ridley looks badass regardless.

Chibi Robo:

Chance: 15%
At this point, there aren't many plausible candidates. We're down to the final stretch, and there are around 20 newcomers (more or less) that can plausibly snag a spot on the final roster. Unfortunately Chibi isn't really one of them right now.

Want: 85%
While I'm not begging for Chibi Robo, he can have a really cool playstyle. It would definitely be a nice surprise to see him enter the fray.

 

[Deleted member]

Ridley
Chance: 5%
I still think that he's a stage hazard, but I could be wrong.
Want: 0%
I'm tired of hearing him. I don't hate him, but I really couldn't care less about him.
MONADO, FLAME SHIELD ME!

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 5%
Chibi-Robo...
The small guy is pretty popular; popular enough to have a sequel be made after how many years? That is one of the biggest things going for him because his chances are rather minuscule otherwise.
The issue is easily competition from other characters. We're nearing the end of speculation and it's quite clear who the big contenders are; Chibi-Robo is not one of those contenders.
I say that he and Captain Rainbow are the frontrunners for a Skip rep, but the chances of that happening are pretty small.
Want: 60%
I have no connection with him, but he could be cool.

Crash Bandicoot Prediction: .58%
It isn't happening.
DLC Characters Prediction: 54.92%
I'm posting a video for this tomorrow.
Tropical Freeze Representation Prediction: 20.21%
I think the consensus is that it's not going to happen.

I want to nominate some stuff. But, what should I nominate? Should I nominate another Awakening character, the concept of a certain man getting his chance another day as DLC, bring in a legendary hero, or go for that music concept?
Well, in honor of the tournament, I'm letting fate decide!
Project M! No Items! Bowser only! Battlefield!
...
And the music concept wins! Then the Awakening character and then the hero! Sorry... I suppose Chrom DLC will get it's chance another game.

Nominations: Stage Music not Limited by Franchise 5x

 

[Rockaphin]

Ridley:
Chance: 50%
Want: 95%

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 25%
Want: 85%

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[PlTe]

Ridley:
Chance: 45%
Want: 50%

Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 40%
Want: 40%

 

[Xhampi]

My computer have some issues but I don't want to skip Ridley's day so I'll use my Wii U for this one, it will be short because of this, please understand ^^ :
Ridley :
Chance : 85%
The silence on him, the shadow size comparaison, the gematsu leak not having every character and the possible trophy quizz theory (I don't put too much stock in this one tough but who knows) added to Ridley's resume make me believe that he will be playable.

That shadow is basicaly the only cons to Ridley right now but it also give Ridley something that no other potential candidate have right now : we are 100% sure that he is in the game in some form.

Ridley could easily be a boss but I have decided to believe in Sakurai, he is aware and have added several things that people wanted in this game, Ridley have been wanted since melee and even after the 2 boss battles from Brawl, people have been asking more and more for a playable Ridley, surely he would know that Metroid fans will not be satisfied with another Ridley boss battle, even less one that we already had in 2 other games before.

Want : 100%
Like always, it's what will decide if I will buy these games or not, no matter how good they are.

 

[AustarusIV]

Ridley

Chance: 90%
Yes, I am that confident in his inclusion. The constant teasing, the lack of clarification on his role, and the fact that every other disconfirmed character was disconfirmed right off the bat with no hesitation makes me believe that Sakurai is a master-level troll.

Also, the way the shadow moved indicates that either Ridley is a slow-moving playable character, or a lackadaisical purple punching bag that was awfully designed. I honestly cannot believe that Sakurai would be incompetent enough to degrade Ridley's appearance even further, especially considering that he should already know what a Ridley boss fight should look like.

There's still some measure of doubt inside of me, but I at least know that Sakurai is aware of Ridley's massive popularity in the fanbase, and that Nintendo is in on it.

Want: 10000000000%

YES. My most wanted character as of this typing, and his reveal would be the best ever.

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 5%
How the hell this thing ever got into the Top Ten in terms of chance, I'll never know. It'll be lucky to even get an AT because of it's niche status. Even Rhythm Heaven is more recognizable than this guy.

Want: 1%
No thanks. I already have my extremely small playable character.