Isaac
He could be another promoted AT. Dark Dawn did do worse than the previous installments. He has fan demand and move set potential (although we do have a lot of swordsmen).
But there aren't many slots left, IMO.
Isaac chances: 25%
Isaac want: 70%
I like Golden Sun, but I don't have strong feelings about Isaac per se.
Takamaru
I thought these scores would be
a lot lower. It must have something with Pacack calling the Takamaru crew over... 99% is simply a ludicrous score to give to Takamaru. Sakurai has given NO hints towards his inclusion, unlike the hints we saw for Little Mac, Palutena and Pac-Man pre-reveal.
We have Pac-Man being heavy retro, Mega Man with a very retro move set, and Little Mac who got in on the strength of his retro games.
Little Mac might have the Wii design but 1. his retro design was not as iconic as some other retro characters 2. he was kinda ugly in Brawl and 3. when Pit got in, he got a significant redesign - but Little Mac conveniently already had one. I'm not really sure what design you would expect him to have - even without the Wii game, he likely would have been given a more modern look.
Punch-Out Wii sold
a lot less than the NES game, so I think he got in on the strength of the classic games. And the fan demand, which given that it was there for Brawl, also has a lot more to do with the classic games than the reboot.
So anyway, yeah, basically I think a lot of Takamaru's support comes from an assumption that none of these characters count as retro and that because Sakurai likes reviving old franchises this means he MUST pick a retro to try to revive. It might be that he picked Pit because he had some specific attraction to that series? Sakurai could simply not pick any retro aside from the three that I mentioned.
That said, Takamaru has a lot of cameos in recent years, and would be the most obvious choice for a new retro (where retro means that they haven't had any new entries since like 1995). He has pretty good move set potential as well, although I would note that one of his primary moves has shown up in multiple move sets already though (Greninja and Mii Swordfighter's shuriken moves).
I don't think the samurai vs. Western sword play matters
that much. This isn't Soul Calibur where all the different types of swordplay are different and interesting, a samurai doesn't bring as much to the table in Smash as Mitsurugi does in SC.
Also, the fact that he's Japan-exclusive can't be ignored. It matters.
And there simply isn't a lot of room left... Sakurai's love of retro or not, it's hard to see him as being as likely, much less more likely, than heavy hitters like K Rool, Ridley, Mewtwo, or any Brawl veterans.
Takamaru chances: 23.5%
A drop from before. There's less space, less obvious need for a retro. The Mii shuriken is a minor factor.
Takamaru want: 35%
Mostly indifferent. I'd rather have Isaac or Ganondorf as a magic+sword-user. He's not the only option for new and interesting move sets, so I don't really get why the want is so high for a character that almost everyone here actually has no connection to (how many have actually played his game?!).
Predictions:
Snake - 33%
Predicting a further drop. There's less space, and he's definitely the odd one out in the Mario+Sonic+Mega Man+Pac-Man group. But I'm not sure why people are predicting so low... He's still a Brawl veteran, although I'm not a fan, I admit he'd still be a hype reveal for pre-launch from a marketing perspective, and ZSS's FS really means nothing (see: Landmaster, Triforce Slash, Light Arrow, and there are plenty of mechanically similar FS's).
Lucas - 33%
The leaker never said that Ness or Lucas would definitely be cut. They could both be in. Which means Lucas has a chance of beating Ness, and a chance of neither being cut. But apparently other people are taking this as much more definite, so I'll predict low.
Isaac Chance: 15% Same as before, I do believe people are overexaggerating Golden Sun's success and history with Nintendo, his series is actually in the same middle boat series as Starfy and Custom Robo.
Golden Sun has about twice the sales of Starfy and three times the sales of Custom Robo. More sales than Earthbound and Kid Icarus, similar sales to Punch-Out and Pikmin (prior to Pikmin 3). Unlike Starfy, it's not mostly Japan-exclusive.
3.7 million makes it a small series, but I wouldn't put him in the same boat as Custom Robo.
There is a theory that the Shuriken the Mii uses was taken from Takamaru and not Greninja, however, I doubt Takamaru, would use a Shuriken (why would he?), so I don't use this in his favor
Takamaru would use shurikens because throwing shurikens is one of Takamaru's standard moves in the game. The A-button uses the katana if applicable (near to an enemy, or needing to block a projectile), otherwise it throws a shuriken.
since [Mewtwo] isn't a newcomer, the Gematsu Leak does not apply.
The Gematsu leak was never claimed to "apply" to anything. He never said he would only reveal newcomer info, he never said he gave us a complete list, etc. etc. We don't know why Mewtwo was not mentioned.
What the Gematsu leak does do, however, is fill more slots on the roster. Which does affect basically every character's chances but the most safe veterans. Even if you think we're getting a 60 character roster, that affects it.
But what I would say is that the Gematsu leaker never said that he gave us a complete list! For all we know, 1. he will reveal more of the roster closer to launch or 2. he never knew the full newcomer list or 3. he is just holding back information.
But given the roster size I expected in the first place (47-51), there's some serious competition for the final slots if Chrom, Shulk and Chorus Men are in.
The other thing I would say is that if we see a non-Gematsu newcomer in the next couple months, I will (and I think others should) revise our scores upward for other non-Gematsu newcomers + Mewtwo.
