Rate Their Chances: GAME OVER! Join the RTC Social Group Today!

[~Krystal~]

Snake
Chance: 5%
Hideo Kojima doesn't even know if Snake is in and he was asked about it this year. Not good. Additionally, MGS isn't coming to the Nintendo Wii U and that's going to drain what little incentive there was to add him. Until I see how DLC is going to be used, I can't say there's much of a chance here.

Want: 100%
The man, the myth, the legend. Snake brought a memorable playstyle to the table and at no point did it feel forced. He was a sound roster addition. It was surreal using a third party character from one of the most influential games of all time in a Smash Bros title. They should add Claire Farron, Serah Farron and Cloud Strife in Sm4sh. Going to be tough losing him.

Lucas
Chance: 50%
It's been rumored that if cuts are made, he's one of the first to go. Lucas' game didn't have the exposure Ness' did, so I think they'll go with Ness over Lucas if it comes down to it. To those of you that haven't played Mother 3, it's a real tear jerker and definitely deserved a place on North American shelves.

Want: 80%
Being a fan of the games, I don't want to see any Mother character leave. I'd love to keep both, but 1 rep is in my mind more than reasonable whether it's Lucas or Ness.

 

[andimidna]

Lucas:
Chance of Gematsu Leak being fake: 1%
Chance if Gematsu Leak is fake: 80%
Chance he could be picked over Ness: 9%
Chance we get both anyways: 7%

Chance overall: 16.8%
Want: 35%
I want him as DLC. I think that's the only reason they'd be cutting one, having the other as DLC

Snake:
ZSS + no E3 reveal + everything that made him unlikely before = nope
Chance: 12%
We could get a surprise. But now that I believe Kojima has said he wants Metal Gear Solid to appeal to younger gamers or something like that, DLC is a great choice for him too. Don't just cut him for good.
Want: 75%
It would be a nice surprise.

Pre:
Robin: 16%
Lucina: 9%

 

[cephalopod17]

Lucas

Chance: 50%
The gematsu leak says Lucas might be cut. Keyword here is might. The gematsu leak is most likely true, but Sakurai does not want to cut anyone if possible. It's a coin toss at this point.

Want: 90%
Smash Bros. introduced me into the Mother series, and I want Mother 3 to be released on the e-shop everywhere. Cutting Lucas from Smash would decrease awareness for Mother 3. The only reason it is not 100% is because if cuts are happening, he would be the second best choice.

Snake

Chance: 20%
He wasn't revealed at E3. Konami and Meta Gear are supporting everything but Nintendo now. His last chance will be the August Direct.

Want: 30%
He never really fit into Nintendo. Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man are all iconic characters and all have influenced Nintendo history (Pac-Man is debatable, but still influences Nintendo more than Snake). His moveset is cool, and did pave the way for other third party characters. I would feel sorry for his mains and we would loose a unique moveset, but he doesn't fit and if any character from Brawl should be cut it is him.

Robin 8%
Lucina 5%

 

[Kalimdori]

Lucas
Chance: 80%
"There were discussions of cutting Ness or Lucas"
Discussions.
Not confirmations.
If we have 12 special moves for each and every character, do you really think it's going to be that hard to make a semi clone?
Want: 50%
I don't like cuts. However, if I have to sacrifice veterans to get newcomers, Lucas would be one of the first to go.

Snake
Chance: 10%
Not impossible, but I don't see it happening. With how much Sakurai is lauding the iconism of the third party roster in this Smash Bros, Snake really doesn't fit in in any way shape or form. Plus Konami still doesn't seem to care about Nintendo.
Want: 0%
Give me Rayman or Black Mage.

 

[Xenigma]

Snake - 25%
Remember this recent pic of the day?

It's a great image, showing how four video game icons from different companies are all in Smash together. It also sends another message, in my eyes at least: this is our full slate of third party characters. This is the group we should be getting excited about, and there's no other third parties to worry about. By extension, Snake is probably not going to make the cut, especially after missing an obvious reveal point with E3.

Now, ironically, it seems I'm still rating Snake higher than most everyone else. What gives? Three things: his playstyle is extremely unique, there's still enough space on the roster that he could theoretically make it in as a secret character, and while signs don't look good, it seems Kojima's up for including him again. I wouldn't count on Snake being in of course, but he's got enough of a case in his favor that I think he still has plenty of potential to surprise.

Want - 100% - Say all you want about him not fitting in, his playstyle is amazing and he's got the distinction of being the first third party ever in Smash. He's a lot like Jigglypuff, oddly enough: even if Snake probably shouldn't be in Smash, thanks to his Smash pedigree, it would be a shame if he was ever cut.

Lucas - 10%
This one is pretty cut and dry: Mother getting two reps was pretty odd in and of itself, so Lucas always seemed like an obvious possible cut for SSB4, and now we have the Gematsu leak confirming that Mother is likely to lose a spot and that Lucas will be the one getting cut. Cutting Ness instead would be bizarre considering Ness's history with Smash and that Earthbound has far more notability than Mother 3 thanks to the latter never being officially released outside Japan despite being out for over 8 years. Technically I can't say Lucas is out just yet (the leak could be wrong after all), but his chances look very bad.
Want - 0% - Mother's too small a franchise to justify two reps IMO, and of the two, I'd much rather have Ness considering he's been in Smash since the beginning.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Snake:
Chances: 5%
Want: 1%

-Lucas:
Chances: 20%
Want: 100%

 

[ultimatekoopa]

Snake 20% I don't trust kojima but snake not getting revealed at e3 doesn't help, maybe we will see him at the possible smash direct in august
want 100%
Lucas 25% He is being considered to be cut and Ness has an edge over him in nearly everything, they can easily give him lucas specials to ness with several moveset he can get
Want 55%

 

[Robertman2]

Snake: 50% Want: 100%
Lucas: 75% Want: 100%

Pre:
Robin: 5%
Lucina: I'm not saying until tomorrow! Nya-ha!

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Snake Chance- 50%
I can't decide if he's in as there is evidence pointing to both sides. So I'm gonna say he has a 50/50 chance because anyone who is asked about his inclusion dodges around the question Example: "I don't know" from Kojima, and the "We haven't announced him" from the Nintendo rep.
Snake Want- 100%
The only Veteran I want back at this point.
Lucas Chance- 75%
I think the game was delayed for a reason you know.
Lucas Want- 75%
It wouldn't break my heart to see him go but there's too many people that love him.

 

[FalKoopa]

? ! !!!: 40%
I can't say I have that much faith in his chances any more. If he's not shown pre-release that he's most definitely out. That said, I wouldn't put that much emphasis on the recent Pic of the Day, as Sakurai also did show off pictures with Mario, Mega Man and Sonic back when Sonic was revealed in October.

Want: 100%
Yes. His moveset is incredible.

: 65%
I wouldn't really count him out of the running just yet. Sure, the leak states that his chances are low, but it stepped short of outright stating that he will be cut, meaning he's still in the air. And I find it weird for them to be debating whether to keep Ness or Lucas this late.

Want: 100%
Ness needs a partner.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

@ HylianHeroBigBoss @ praline @ Ekans647 @Dark2020 @CaptainCrisb @billys_dad @Zyfoe @Scoliosis Jones @ Skyfox2000 @ Spinosaurus
Thought I should Invite you guys for Snake's day don't go too crazy with the chance score though.

 

[Deleted member]

Lucas:

Chance: 100% - 100%? Yeah. Seriously. I'm convinced he's in the game. I will bet money on it, and you will lose. Being a "clone" means he is easier to add. No series has ever gone down in representation. BOTH Mother items have been confirmed, and the Franklin Badge (while also in EarthBound) is extremely important to Mother 3. Toon Link, Ike, and Lucario reappearing means that the charactrs seen as "expendable" by the community are not "expendable" in the eyes of Sakurai. People thought G Dub and Icies would be cut. They came back. People thought Ike, Toon Link, and Lucario would be cut or replaced. They're back. Toon Link is especially notable; I think that outright states that most Brawl characters will be in the game. That's 3 out of 5 "expendable" characters thus far, and Wolf/Falco will be hidden. If Lucas is confirmed, people will (hopefully) finally shut up about cutting Wolf or Falco. I know many of you are gonna disagree, but I am convinced he is in the game, and only a deconfirmation will convince me otherwise. If he is deconfirmed, I will mourn him, but probably get over it.

Want: 100% - Yes. Yes. I want as many veterans as possible. Cuts are a terrible thing. I can understand being indifferent to Lucas being cut, but if you want him to be cut, that's just a crime.


Snake

Chance: 50% - I'll give him the next Nintendo Direct. If he's not revealed then, I think he's out.

Want: 100% - Again, I want as many vets back as possible. People put a lot of time into this character. It would be a shame if they couldn't use him again.

 

[Ekans647]

Chance: 70%
We just don't have any information on him, good or bad. However as a third-party, I believe he may have priority one other characters. Ike's reveal also boosted his chances, as well and Lucario, and Toon Link. However he his third-party so I can't be sure.

Want: 100%
I really like Snake. He introduced me to the MGS series and so many new games. He's also one of the most diverse characters in Smash, both move set and personality wise.


Chance: 90%
Same reasons as Snake. The reveal of multiple characters who were thought to be cut makes me believe that the entire Brawl will return (Bar Squirtle and Ivysaur)

Want 70%
I like this character. He was my main when I started playing, and is a really tragic character. Reminds me of Solid Snake, having to fight his brother to the death.

 

[Robertman2]

Snake's just gonna sneak into the game unnoticed. I am calling it now.

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

Snake
Chance 60% - As many others have said, hes still within the realm of possibility. There is nothing against his chances other then expectations of those that dont want him, and him being a third party, but in that sense he would have priority over any first party as well. Its still up in the air, so he cant be written off that easily. Hes a veteran (pun intended) and he was the most unique addition to brawl, sakurai has gone on about how the team put a lot of effort into lucario, and with that in mind you can only imagine how much care snake had put into him. Even sakurai can see that losing him would benefit no one

Want 100% - No question about it, hes the only character i need in this game at this point. Ridley would be nice, but having snake back is everything, and its the one thing i want for this game more then anything.

--------------

Lucas
Chance 60% - As a veteran, and one of the only other mother characters hes got a great shot. I think if he does bite the dust it will only be by a small margin, and even then hed make sense for DLC.

Want 80% - Hes not someone i really care all that much about, but i dont think any character that is a unique and separate character should get taken out. And my buddy uses him so that would be bad for him to lose his main.

 

[Spinosaurus]

Chance: 50%
I'm not sure what to think of the leak. It did not outright say that Lucas is out, and I personally have a hard time imagining Sakurai would cut him. I'm so conflicted on this.
Want: 100%
Of course, I want him to be in. I really do.


Chance: 50%
It's the next direct or bust. Here's hoping!
Want: 100%
Snake is my favorite video game character behind Wario, and MGS is one of my favorite video game series. I especially owe this to Brawl, because if it weren't for Snake being in it I probably wouldn't have tried out the whole series. There's merit in having him, especially since he already was in Smash. He has the best moveset in Brawl if you ask me, and I'd be really sad if he left.

Don't keep me waiting too much, David. I don't want to use this gif.

 

[DarkKry4]

Snake & Lucas

Chance - 22%
Want - 0%

these two are questionable additions to smash. Lucas's game was never released outside of japan. Making him a very unrecognizable figure compared to the rest of the cast. and hes also a bit of a clone. While Snake has a really unique moveset, his series was never really prominent on the nintendo console in general... he doesn't compare to the other 3 legendary third party characters. They make sense cause they're more like Mario's peers where as Snake is too much like a fish out of water.

 

[Smasher 101]

Snake's chances: 30% - Quite a bit of drop. I find a fourth third-party to not be that likely, but also not impossible.
Want: 50% - I liked him, but he isn't really the most fitting choice, and I feel like we may have enough third-parties. I don't oppose his addition, but at the same time I wouldn't miss him if he did leave.

Lucas' chances: 50% - At this point I wouldn't be that surprised either way.
Want: 50% - I think Ness is all Mother really needs, and Lucas ended up being my second-least favorite newcomer in Brawl (behind Pokemon Trainer), so like Snake I wouldn't miss him if he did leave. I don't oppose his return either though.

Robin prediction: 12.84%
Lucina prediction: 8.62%

 

[praline]

Lucas Chance 25% Want 80%

Snake Chance 50% Want 10000%

 

[colder_than_ice]

The want chart has finally been updated.

Lucas
Chance: 50% - Word on the street is he's going to get cut.
Want: 72% - I will be miffed if he doesn't make it.

Snake
Chance: 40% - four third party characters may be too much, but at least he's popular.
Want: 44% - I'm mostly neutral here.

Robin prediction: 12%
Lucina prediction: 7%

 

[a Link to the Forums]

Time to right an in depth analysis on Lucas and Snake... screw it. I'm too lazy to do that.

Snake:
Chance: 10%
Want: 10%


Lucas:
Chance: 50%
Want: 55%

 

[Tikivoy]

Snake:
Chance: 60%
I'd give him above a 50/50 chance. I don't find Kojima not knowing if he's in was a negative factor, but other characters getting similar moves from him (IE: ZSS Final Smash) might mean something.
Still, if they really chose everyone from the start, I don't see why they wouldn't try to get Snake back.
Want: 100%.
Snakes inclusion in Brawl made me a Metal Gear fan. He was also the first third-party, and his inclusion was a pretty big thing in Brawl, so I find its kind of wrong to not have him back.

Lucas:
Chance: 51%
I find the only problem is how he's from Mother 3, which hasn't exactly gotten too much attention after Earthbound came to VC.
If leaks are true about him being considered for the axe list, maybe there's a possibility they'll finish him up in time to get him in.
Want: 90%.
Well, I want all the Brawl vets back pretty badly. Lucas is behind Wario and Meta-Knight in my book.

 

[Starbound]

No series has ever gone down in representation.

Melee:
Brawl:

I'm abstaining from both of these characters because I don't know what I think about them.

 

[Deleted member]

Melee:
Brawl:

This is highly debatable. Doc was planned, and if you consider DK, Wario, and Yoshi as subseries of Mario (I do), then we get:

Melee:
Brawl:

+1 character

Another thing that may be important to note is that Fire Emblem from Melee to Brawl gained and lost a character, staying at 2, Star Fox gained a character, going from 2 to 3. And if you count Donkey Kong as not a subseries, then it when up from 1 to 2. So far, Marth and Ike have been confirmed to return, as well as DK and Diddy. Smaller franchises that get a new character typically keep them. Not saying it's impossible for him to be cut, but really, I don't see it happening.

I believe the morning sun, always gonna shine again...

 

[Kenith]

(I very rarely will add a comment to ratings from here on out. The only reason I felt compelled to do so in the first place was because I wanted to justify my beliefs. Of course, the game comes out in three months, it doesn't matter anymore, so my subsequent ratings will be very brief.)

Snake:

Chance: 25%.
Want: 100%.

Lucas:

Chance: 90%.
Want: 100%.

---

What can I say? I hate to see vets go, and I know that Sakurai feels the same way.

 

[Xenigma]

Toon Link, Ike, and Lucario reappearing means that flavor of the month means crap.

Toon Link and Lucario have both had major, recent releases in Wind Waker HD and Pokemon X/Y respectively, and while Ike hasn't starred in a game since Radiant Dawn, Awakening did feature him as a DLC character as well, plus it includes the character Priam who is a strong reference to him. On the other hand, Lucas hasn't appeared in any game since Brawl, nor has Mother gotten a new game in general, so on that front his case is much weaker.

 

[Deleted member]

Toon Link and Lucario have both had major, recent releases in Wind Waker HD and Pokemon X/Y respectively, and while Ike hasn't starred in a game since Radiant Dawn, Awakening did feature him as a DLC character as well, plus it includes the character Priam who is a strong reference to him. On the other hand, Lucas hasn't appeared in any game since Brawl, nor has Mother gotten a new game in general, so on that front his case is much weaker.

Whatever. I still think he's in the game. I guess flavor of the month was a bad way of putting it. I think the "expendable" label thing is what I'm criticizing. (As in, it was commonly thought Tink would be out, while Lucario and Ike would be replaced with more recent characters.)

I will amend my post to reflect this.

 

[Starbound]

This is highly debatable. Doc was planned, and if you consider DK, Wario, and Yoshi as subseries of Mario (I do), then we get:

Melee:
Brawl:

+1 character

That's irrelevant because Sakurai clearly thinks that they are separate which is why they have separate icons and his opinion is the only one that matters.

A mushroom is not an egg. W is not the same as DK.

There's literally nothing to debate.

 

[Deleted member]

That's irrelevant because Sakurai clearly thinks that they are separate which is why they have separate icons and his opinion is the only one that matters.

A mushroom is not an egg. W is not the same as DK.

There's literally nothing to debate.

Whatever. I still stand by my 100% chance rating. I still think Lucas is in the game, and even if you don't, I consider at least Yoshi and Wario part of the Mario-verse. (Yoshi's series actually features Baby Mario (Unless he's not in Yoshi's Epic Yarn), and Bowser is the final boss of Yoshi's Island DS. Wario characters appeared in Dr. Mario 64. Waluigi is considered a Wario character despite never having appeared in a Wario game. DK's connections are a lot more vague. It is easily the most distanced of the 3. Only connection I can think of is sports games, and those don't count.)

I think it's more notable that Mario went down but Star Fox and DK went up. Fire Emblem stayed the same, as in even though Roy was dropped, Ike was added, keeping the series at 2 characters. Both series are smaller than Mario. DK currently has the same amount of character as Brawl right now, as does Fire Emblem. The other Star Focks characters are probably hidden, so we can't draw any conclusions here yet. How many characters does Mario have right now? 5. As in the same as Melee. (>) At this point, I'd honestly be shocked if Lucas was cut and there was no replacement Mother character, and seeing as how Lucas's animations are similar to Ness's, and would thus be easier to make, I think he's back.

I WILL LIVE BLISSFULLY UNTIL THE FINAL ROSTER IS REVEALED.

 

[Leafeon523]

Snake:
Chance: 5%
@ Xenigma summed this up quite nicely.
Want: 30%
Eh, I could live without him.
Lucas:
Chance: 50%
Honestly, it could go wither way.
Want: 50%
I'm neutral here. I don't like cuts, yet I never used him in Brawl.
Chance:
Robin: 23%
Lucina: 8%
Flame wars: 66%

 

[AustarusIV]

Normally I would give my opinions on whether a character is likely or not, but this time I don't feel like it.

Snake
Chance: 10%
Want: 45%

Lucas
Chance: 50%
Want: 70%

Predict
Robin: 8.6%
Lucina: 10.12%

 

[Swift Fox]

Snake
Chance: 25% - itsnothappening.jpg
Want: 45%

Lucas
Chance: 10% - "There has been internal debate about keeping Lucas versus Ness, apparently Lucas is likely to get the cut"
Want: 45%

I was going to give them 50% of want but -5% each because I want to free up programming resources to some one else or focus on balancing better.

 

[TitanTeaTime]

Lucas - Abstain. I only really have one thing to say in this RTC.
Snake chances - also abstain. This isn't it either.
Snake want: 100%. As much as he "doesn't fit in," which is true, I like him regardless, and almost feel like it'd end up being a Mewtwo all over again if he was cut. Which unfortunately could very well happen 3:

 

[Skyfox2000]

Chance: 60%
We really haven't had much Intel on Snake. I don't think they would cut Snake with having a recent MGS game on a Nintendo platform. I still have hope for him to be reveled in an Nintendo direct (like sonic) or at the 3DS launch trailer.
Want: 100%
Of course I want Snake to return he's a living legend!

Chance: 70%
I really don't think what Sal said about Lucas and Ness being "debatable" is true. Lucas is an important part to the Mother series he represent the last and final game in the series Mother 3, No way he's getting cut Sakurai was going to replace Ness with Lucas in Melee but decided to keep Ness.
But if what Sal said was true I hope Sakurai keeps them both
Want: 100%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Snake 25% Chance
100% Want
This pains me. It really does. I want Snake to be in the game. But I cant help but feel our soldier has been retired. The August Direct gives me hope though, as does a second Smash Direct. If he does not appear either of those times, he is dead. Which makes me very sad. His moveset is easily one of the best, and it would be hard to replace...

Lucas 50% Chance
100% Want
Gematsu is real. Gemastsu says that Lucas may be cut. I interpret that as a 50% chance. My friend mains him, so I want him back to have many matches with him...

(On a side not, All veterans get a 100% want from me, save Doctor Mario, Pichu, and Young Link.)

 

[Sid-cada]

Lucas

Chance - 60% - As it's being debated, we don't know for certain, so we can't call him out just yet.

Want - 100% - Hey, give those Mother fans a break. I view cutting Lucas as essentially giving a bunch of Mother fans a kick in the face.


Solid Snake

Chance - 20% - Well, he's running out of time. If he doesn't show up soon, he's almost certainly out.

Want - 90% - Keep the move set, at the very least.


Predictions

Robin - 12.45% - Still something to cling onto, but not much.

Lucina - 3.47% - Yeah, she's gonna be crushed.

 

[Toller]

Snake - 50%

You guys know that Chrom''s VA said he hasn't been contacted either yet right? Also, Kojima.

Want - 100% Literally the only character I care about at this point besides the expected vets.

Lucas - 20%

I don't doubt the leak's character list at all at this point, but I do doubt the extra little bits in the last leak a little. If it's true, he's most certainly gone. If it's not, he has a chance, Sakurai obviously likes him.

Want - 50% Never like to see cuts, but I could honestly live without him.

 

[Rockaphin]

Snake:
Chance: 10%
Want: 5%
I personally didn't care for Snake's inclusion in the first place. I also didn't like his moveset so there's absolutely nothing I like about him. His codecs were cool though and that's where the 5% comes in. Sorry Snake fans, I prefer to have Pac-Man.

Lucas:
Chance: 40%
Want: 55%
I like Ness better, but I prefer Lucas's playstyle more. I only want him back if they make him more unique.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Snake Chance: 50%
It could really go either way.
I guess I'll just do a positive/negative list.
Positives:
+ Was a veteran in Brawl
+ Sakurai doesn't like cutting. And sine Kojima is his friend, I really don't think he wants to cut Snake.
+ A decently unique character.

Invalid Arguments:
* Kojima said he doesn't know if Snake is in. (He is a troll. Also, Chrom's voice actor says he hasn't been contacted either, yet Chrom is one of the most likely characters).

Negatives:
- MGS isn't relevant to Nintendo anymore.
- One of Snake's moves was in essence given to Sheik.
- We already have a particular group of 3rd Parties (Gaming All-Stars). Snake would be out of place.

So yeah, it could easily go either way.

Snake Want: 100%
I'm a huge, "No Brawler Left Behind," guy. Except for Ivysaur and Squirtle.


Lucas Chance: 50%
Just like Snake, it could go either way.
The Gematsu leak suggests he will be cut, but once again, Sakurai doesn't like to cut characters.
But Mother doesn't really need 2 characters, be we already have 2, so what's the point in cutting one?
But he is recent and from a game with huge demand to bring to the west, but he still isn't that popular.

I don't know what to think about this one. All I know is that he won't replace Ness.

Lucas Want: 100%
Again, No Brawler Left Behind except Ivysaur and Squirtle.


Robin Prediction: 15%
Chrom destroys his chances.

Lucina Prediction: 20%
Chrom destroys her chances.

 

[Robertman2]

Didn't the Gematsu leak that said Lucas will be cut also say Chrom, Shulk, and Chorus Men would be shown at E3?