Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

[Gam3rALO]

Toon Link: 88.5%
Its considered a must for Sakurai to have a young link. Toon link is more relevant to newer games of the Zelda series. In fact besides Zelda, Link, and Ganondorf, Toonlink is the most important character in the series.
Want: 95%
He was one of my top 5 favorite characters in Brawl. I also hate when most veterans get cut unless its necessary. For examp,e it is necessary to cut Lucario because there are more relevant pokemon series reps now.

Mewtwo Prediction: 93.67%

Nominations:
Takamaru x5

 

[Opossum]

Toon Link time.

Likelihood: 90%

Some may call this a bit high, but Sakurai thinks having a child Link is importantly, and I think Toon Link is the best one for the job. Barring 3rd Parties, though, he's the most expendable.

Want: 100%
No cuts.


Predicting a 92% for Mewtwo.

Nominating Ice Climbers x5

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Likelihood: 50% I don't know what to make of the whole background toon link in the spirit track stage, so I will disregard the information. I do know though that he was a semiclone, and that toon link before him was cut. That said, Sakurai said something about liking having child links or some such in his games, so I think this could go either way.

Want: 60% Honestly it somewhat depends on if they deluigify him a bit or not. He was one of my favorite characters in brawl, but him not being different enough special wise from link did bother me.

Mewtwo: I predict people will say he is 85% likely due to x, y and popular demand.

Nominations:
Krystal x5

 

[Deleted member]

I'm just going to go ahead and say that cutting Lucario would be a far worse idea than cutting Toon Link for reasons I will mention once his comes up.

 

[Curmudgeon]

TOON LINK
Likelihood: 68%
Want: 85%

MEWTWO
Prediction: 79.4%

Nominations
Paper Mario x5

 

[Swift Fox]

Toon Link

Likelihood: 85%
-"no characters had been cut so far" (initially 100% for every Brawl veterans, including the fighters that is likely to get cut, especially Lucario! people who thinks Lucario should get cut can finally shut up ^_^)
-subtract 15% for seeing Spirit Track Link, time constraints, and other reasons

Want: 100%

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Toon Link: 70%. His chances seem pretty decent considering Sakurai's recent no characters have been cut so far line from the recent interview but if he does need a cut I think Toony may be one of the first on the chopping block
Want: 50% I like Toony but at the same time i'm a little eh on him.

Mewtwo Prediction: 76.5%

Nominations: Roy X2, Sonic X2, Lloyd Irving X1

 

[Deleted member]

This day is over. I am in the process of updating this thread to a new day...

has Marth been discussed yet or not? Or is he even up for nomination?

He hasn't been up for discussion yet, but he can be nominated.

@Venus of the Desert Bloom: Welcome back! Just want to remind you that you have three extra nominations at your disposal.

 

[Erimir]

Toon Link

Likelihood: 85%
-"no characters had been cut so far" (initially 100% for every Brawl veterans, including the fighters that is likely to get cut, especially Lucario! people who thinks Lucario should get cut can finally shut up ^_^)
-subtract 15% for seeing Spirit Track Link, time constraints, and other reasons

Yeah, it's too late now, but if I had seen this interview, I would have given Toon Link significantly higher chances.

Obviously Sakurai is not likely to come right out and say who's been cut at this point if they have, he probably would hedge a bit more on that subject (no benefit to getting people's hopes up if you know you'll disappoint them). So at least I think we can say that the Link on the Spirit Tracks stage does not really indicate a plan to cut Toon Link. Now, I still think he still has a fair amount of danger for more general reasons, and there's still a possibility that Sakurai was withholding, so the Spirit Tracks stage still hurts a little bit. But only a little bit.

Anyway, if Sakurai is concerned about Toon Link being too clone-y, all he has to do is remember that there are plenty of other cool Zelda gizmos that Toon Link could use - Grappling Hook, Skull Hammer, Deku Leaf, Mirror Shield, Roc's Feather/Cape, Pegasus Boots, Mole Mitts, the Whip, the Slingshot and maybe using the Wind Waker as a Final Smash. Not to mention there are more ways to change up the Hero's Bow and Boomerang compared to adult Link.

 

[Deleted member]

Flavor later.

Day 10 begins! Today, you will be rating Mewtwo's likelihood and how much you want Mewtwo along with predicting Krystal's score for tomorrow. You also have five nominations at your disposal today. The day will end at 7 PM on July 5th, 2013 due to the 4th of July holiday.

Mr. Mumbles, Xhampi, josh bones, 8-peacock-8 and 3Bismyname all win extra nomination for being the closest to predicting Toon Link's score; five, four, three, two and one respectively. Venus of the Desert Bloom still has his extra nominations.

GameFAQs variation is in here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/633202-super-smash-bros-for-wii-u/66640117#2

 

[Zuby]

Toon Link
Likelihood: 73%
+ a veteran
+ The Wind Waker HD
+ Star of 6 of the last 11 Zelda games
+ Excluding remakes/re-releases, star of 4 of the last 7 original adventures
+ Sakurai on record as wanting a child Link presence
+ Potential for very different move set to regular Link if developers are willing to spend time on him
+ adorable!

- was a low priority character in Brawl, and one of the last 3 to be added
- depending on how ALBW Link is visualised, may have competition from him
- certainly the easiest Nintendo cut

Why the Spirit Tracks stage proves nothing:
- precedent: 75m
- the Link in Spirit Tracks is an entirely different Link to the one in Wind Waker/Phantom Hourglass, the one in The Minish Cap, and the one in Four Swords Adventures. There are four distinct 'Toon Links' out there, so it is justifiable on exactly the same grounds as Donkey Kong appearing in 75m.
- not at all hard to code a switch to make Alfonso drive the train if Toon Link is playing in the match

Why "Young Link" is no threat:
- see evidence under "Likelihood."
- Ocarina of Time 3D is supplanted by the Wind Waker HD in terms of currency
- YL is literally just a smaller Link. He grows into the older one. He's about as cloney as you can get, no matter what you do with his move set.
- Majora's Mask 3D has most certainly NOT been confirmed. "Masked Link" still exists in only one game that will be close to 15 years old by the time Smash4 launches.

Want : 100% - though there are other characters I would be prepared to make a straight swap for.

Mewtwo prediction:
76%

Nominations:
Jigglypuff x5

 

[Deleted member]

@Zuby: You were late, sorry to say that. Toon Link's day is over and Mewtwo's day has began.

 

[Zuby]

@Zuby: You were late, sorry to say that. Toon Link's day is over and Mewtwo's day has began.

This day started a hell of a lot earlier than most. I guess that's what I get for putting actual thought and effort into this game.

 

[Swift Fox]

Mewtwo

Likelihood: 85%
-Mewtwo is NOT going to replace Lucario (No Brawl fighters will get cut but doesn't really apply to fallen Melee fighters and MAYBE 3rd party fighters).
-At the same time, Sakurai is considering Mewtwo for SSB4.
-Mewtwo's new form is what hurts Mewtwo's chance of returning.

Want: 75%
Would be good returnee since Melee

Predicition: Krystal 34%

 

[Shorts]

Mewtwo: 95%, I really do see him being included.

Want: 80% Newtwo or not, I still want him.

Krystal will get 57%

Tharja x3
Zoroark x2

 

[Xenigma]

Mewtwo - 80%
Honestly, there's not a lot to say against Mewtwo. He is by far the most requested of the characters cut from Melee, and he even beats out all newcomer prospects. Heck, based on Shortie's poll he even beats out a hefty chunk of Brawl's cast. He's the only cut character with a unique moveset, one that somewhat inspired Lucario but is still very different. He's even become relevant again thanks to a new form in the next Pokemon generation and soon an appearance in a third movie (!!!).

Any arguments against him are pretty weak. There's the idea that Pokemon has a ton of other viable characters to use, but few have his popularity and name/image recognition. One could also say the first generation is too represented in Smash, but that's mostly due to its enduring fame and importance compared to other generations, not any real fault of Smash's. Then there's the simple fact that he was cut from Brawl, though given Sonic's late inclusion, it's quite possible he was just unlucky. Overall, I don't want to say he's a lock (few characters are), but among characters not in Brawl, he's one of the most likely.

Want - 50% - Not really a fan, but hey, he's Mewtwo! Having a playable legendary Pokemon in Smash, especially one as infamous as him, really is a nice thing to have.

Krystal Prediction - 36.5%
We're already rating her? Seems like there should be some more likely characters we should be hitting first. Oh well, guess this is just a signal she has some fervent supporters. Given that, I predict she gets a rating significantly higher than she deserves, but still well below anything else we've seen so far.

Nominations
5x Lucina

(Edited twice, once because I forgot my noms, second because I forgot my want rating. Oops!)

 

[Deleted member]

This day started a hell of a lot earlier than most. I guess that's what I get for putting actual thought and effort into this game.

Actually, it has more to do with me getting the day started up earlier than usual. It's closer to the twenty-four hour deadline I propose, though this day will last much longer thanks to the 4th of July holiday.

 

[Starbound]

Gonna go out on a limb and say 100% for Mewtwo.

He's the most popular character, by far, in both Japan and the West. It's like Sonic again.

He's also in that new Pokemon movie which improves his chances astronomically.

Then there's that Forbidden 7 data, which means a lot. The data can be directly transfered, and finished. He was so close to getting finished too.

Really though, the new Pokemon movie is the difference here between 99% and 100%. Regardless of forme (they're both still Mewtwo to everyone), the only way we AREN'T seeing Mewtwo in this game is if some new Pokemon movie is announced tomorrow.

Want: 100%
It's Mewtwo. 'nuff said.

Predicing 40% for Krystal. Expecting a lot of "Four Starfox characters is too much".

Nomz: Bowser Jr. x4
Lucina x1

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Mewtwo's new form is what hurts Mewtwo's chance of returning.

Doesn't that help him? Not hinder him?


Mewtwo: 95%
He's the most wanted character by far and is wanted worldwide! His new form made him recent as well. The stars are alligning for Mewtwo. He's the closest thing we have to a shoo-in.

Want: 100%
My main in Melee. Only Ridley and Pokemon Trainer is wanted as much as him.

Krystal Prediction: 30%
Four Starfox characters ain't happening and most people see that and accept our current Starfox Roster. However, there are some rabid fanboys who will claim that she should replace Falco and/or Wolf.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Little Mac
Roy

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

I turned out to be right about Toon Link? After seeing how supportive everyone was of him on here, I thought I'd made a huge mistake with my prediction. Way to go gamefaqs I guess.

Mewtwo: 70% chance
Mewtwo is a hard one to guess, as we have yet to see how Sakurai deals with characters who have been removed from one game to the next. We know something vague about revisiting old ideas, but that doesn't tell us much. This makes it hard if not impossible for me to give him anything more then 70%. That said, he has a lot of things going for him. He is the most popular character that was cut from Brawl, he is one of the forbidden seven, and if that wasn't enough for Sakurai he has renewed potential and relevance.

Mewtwo Want: 90%
I was never a huge Mewtwo player back in Melee, because he/she/it was too floaty. But he/she/it had a very unique moveset, and I think Sakurai would turn down the floatiness. In short, I really want <pronoun> back, but I won't be heartbroken if (screw it I'm going with he) he doesn't make the cut.

Krystal: I predict people will give her 40%
As much as I want Krystal in this game, I have seen a lot of negativity towards the idea of her getting into smash. She hasn't been in a game since 2006, and she wasn't part of the starting cast and etc. That said, the lowest rating this thread has giving anyone yet is 47%, and I have seen her on a number of roster wish lists, and blind optimism tends to raise scores, so I think it will average out to 40%.

Nominations:
Uh... I'm not really sure what to do here anymore. Krystal has already been choosen... and Ridley, K. Rool, and Dixie have already been voted on. I guess I'll go with Paper Mario then.
Paper Mario x10

 

[Swift Fox]

Doesn't that help him? Not hinder him?

His two forms will require more works and I think he's going to have THIRD form! Not sure about this.

EDIT: BTW am I allowed to change my %? I think i gave too high % to Krystal and too low for Mewtwo...

 

[---]

Mewtwo - 80%
Want - 99%
+ Planned for each past Smash game
+ More popular than most if not every newcomer
+ Large resurgence in the Pokemon community recently
+ Exclusion from Brawl was the biggest universal complaint with it's roster
+ Has been acknowledged by Sakurai
- Low priority in past Smash games thanks to Jigglypuff

 

[Swamp Sensei]

His two forms will require more works and I think he's going to have THIRD form! Not sure about this.

No proof of a third form. So let's just keep it at two since that's all we know.

Either way, it doesn't really hurt him in the slighest. More work won't sway Sakurai. This is the man who put PT, Sheik and ZSS into the game.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

His two forms will require more works and I think he's going to have THIRD form! Not sure about this.

EDIT: BTW am I allowed to change my %? I think i gave too high % to Krystal and too low for Mewtwo...

New guy over here probably shouldn't be the one to answer this, but I coulda sworn I read somewhere that you can change anything, so long as the day hasn't ended.

 

[Swift Fox]

No proof of a third form. So let's just keep it at two since that's all we know.

Either way, it doesn't really hurt him in the slighest. More work won't sway Sakurai. This is the man who put PT, Sheik and ZSS into the game.

Yeah it was rumor of 3rd form: 2nd form for X and 3rd for Y. I can disregard this anytime lol

Sakurai has also said there are limitations going on for 3DS and it will not be as easy as Brawl...

New guy over here probably shouldn't be the one to answer this, but I coulda sworn I read somewhere that you can change anything, so long as the day hasn't ended.

I'll change % and hopefully Smash Bros Fan haven't counted it until now.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah it was rumor of 3rd form: 2nd form for X and 3rd for Y. I can disregard this anytime lol

Sakurai has also said there are limitations going on for 3DS and it will not be as easy as Brawl...

The limitations were for dual characters like Ice Climbers, not transformation charters.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Mewtwo Prediction: 70%
I see it as a good chance having Mewtwo return... 1. He was supose to be back in Brawl.. 2. He is far more popular than Lucario and Zoroark which are the other 2 people think can fight for Mewtwo... Also Mewtwo is ressurected with a new for which would easy could be his Final Smash lol And there you get a 6th Gen rep sorta as well...

Want: 90%
I love Mewtwo, it's my favorite legendary Pokemon, so it would be great to see him back.
Not my highest want, he is actually my third

Krystal Prediction: 67%


Also Boost my 4 extras
Geno x4

 

[Deleted member]

Mewtwo ~ 100%

I NEVER give a perfect score to a character that didn't appear in Brawl, barring the leak characters, but if there is any exception to that rule it is undoubtedly Mewtwo.

At this rate, I can't think of a single negative going against Mewtwo at this point. Pretty much any detraction points made against Mewtwo were destroyed bit by bit over the past couple of years and now Mewtwo is at the point where saying Mewtwo won't be in is like saying Wario wouldn't show up in Brawl.

Mewtwo is the #1 most wanted character for this game by a fair margin. Even Mega Man, who was the most wanted newcomer for this game, did not capture the same popularity that Mewtwo has now. Mewtwo along with Roy in Japan are the two most wanted characters there and Mewtwo is also the most wanted character in the West as well. Essentially, Mewtwo is the Sonic of SSB4.

And that's all that really needs to be said, I don't have to go into his other positives because if Mega Man's popularity was enough for him, Mewtwo's popularity will surely get it in.

Want ~ 100%
Surprisingly, I don't really have a lot to say now that almost no one is doubting Mewtwo's return, so I don't really feel the need to put forth effort to support it. However, once Mewtwo is shown in action, I am sure I am going to be incredibly excited. Only character that would excite me more is Mega Man and he's already in.

Krystal will get a 29.21%. Could do kinda medicore on Smashboards, but she will fall flat on GameFAQs.

x5 Mii

 

[Steelia]

Mewtwo
Likelihood: 99%
The demand for this guy is incredible. Even media articles are quick to note that one of SSBB's flaws is his exclusion from the roster. And if Sakurai's mindset for picking Pokemon reps is anything to go by, Mewtwo is not only very popular, he's also appearing in the most recent movie, and getting another forme. He's literally become the representative of the newest 6th generation. He's also been appearing much more frequently in other Pkmn-related media.

Want: 100%
*w*

Krystal: 35%
Support for her has been decent, but waned considerably due to Wolf's inclusion. Would Sakurai sacrifice him in favor of a female Fox? Or add yet another member to the Star Fox roster, which hasn't seen a major release since the GCN/DS (excluding the 3DS remake)? It's not looking very good...

Nomination: Roy x5

 

[Swift Fox]

The limitations were for dual characters like Ice Climbers, not transformation charters.

You're probably right. I wonder how Mewtwo transforms in SSB4!

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Mewtwo: 100%. Super Smash Bros Fan took the words right out of my mouth.
Want: 80%. While not my absolute favorite of Mons there is a badass feature to Mewtwo. The roster would feel incomplete without him, Plus his movie back in the day was a childhood favorite.

Krystal: 45%. She has her supporters and haters it will nearly even out I think.
Nominations: Roy X2, Sonic X2, Ike

 

[aldelaro5]

I guess I'il play this game too

Mewtwo likehood: 95%
It was loved in melee, was in the forbidden 7 (with a victory theme so he got further in development), extremely popular (number 1 in the 1500 votes poll) and even sakurai stated that he will consider him. The only 5% I won't put is just because he hasen't been comfirmed yet but he's pretty close to

want: 100%
I liked him in melee and being in ssb4 would be very cool

krystal prediction: 55%
I don't know for her likehood but I heard a pretty mixed reception some haters and fan so I guss a near to 50% is what I think she will get

nomination
Paper Mario x5

 

[Erimir]

I will say, given the new info we got today, absent any new revelations, I expect he'd get the most change in a re-rate.

Anywho... Mewtwo.

Popularity: He's very popular with the Smash crowd in both the West and Japan. He's a very popular Pokemon and starred in a movie. He seems a bit more prominent than many Pokemon that are kinda the flavor of the week (or generation as it may be).

Relevancy: Well, it seems he'll be showing up again in the next Pokemon game (and likely again in the anime) with a new look. Recency seems to be a factor with Pokemon, Sakurai seems to value the input of the Pokemon developers a bit when it comes to deciding which Pokemon to put in the game (I assume they have even more influence on the Pokeball item), and their interest is promoting the latest version.

Design: He's already been in the game. He needed a bit of tweaking tho, cuz he was really bad compared to most characters. He will likely have some new moves in the new game (maybe be a Fairy type?), and I assume Sakurai will have access to that if he decides Mewtwo's moves need an update.

Roster considerations: We're already approaching Pokemon saturation, so I can't think that we'd see more than one new Pokemon without seeing cuts. But who knows. I'd really prefer not to have effectively 8+ Pokemon in the game though.

Technical/legal issues: The only issue here is that GameFreak is 2nd party, and they get more of a say in who gets into Smash.

Sakurai statements/rumors/etc.: Sakurai has stated they're considering him. He didn't really want to cut him the first time. He doesn't like cuts, and he knows that Mewtwo still has a fan base in Smash.

However, the new form seems to be an evolution... Or it's an "awakened forme"? I don't follow the current Pokemans, so... Does that mean it will have a new name? If that form were to get in, would it count as Mewtwo? I could see Sakurai going either way in that case. It's possible that Sakurai could pull a Toon Link on us and Mewtwo's evolution gets in under the new name, so it's technically not Mewtwo, but it basically has Mewtwo's move set.

On the other hand, it could just be used as his Final Smash.

Mewtwo chances: 92%

Edit: I am being informed that Mewtwo's new "forme" is not an evolution, and so it would be still considered Mewtwo. I'll trust that. Otherwise I would've given like 73%, since that wouldn't count, just as Toon Link doesn't count as being the same as Young Link.

Anyway, Mewtwo's very popular, was in Smash before, and was only cut due to time constraints. He's on Sakurai's radar and relevant to the upcoming Pokemon game, so it seems quite likely he'll make his return.

Mewtwo want: 53%
I'm pretty neutral on him. I didn't really play him much in Melee, and I haven't been into Pokemon since the 2nd generation, so I'm not very invested in which ones get in. The only ones that I care that much about are Pikachu and Jigglypuff. Pokemon Trainer (1st gen) is kinda cool, I guess. I don't really care who we get out of Lucario, Mewtwo and other possible Pokemon.

Krystal prediction: 40%
This is a hard one. There seems to be a fair amount of support and also a lot of hate here. Combine that with Star Fox already having a fair number of reps, and I think her numbers will be middling. GameFAQs will push her down. But the self-selection bias in voting will come into play and boost her numbers as well.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[Steelia]

I think Mewtwo has very good chances overall, but I think according to the rules of the game, Mewtwo's evolution doesn't technically count as Mewtwo (just as Toon Link doesn't count as Young Link). And so while Mewtwo's evolution would likely be very similar and probably please a lot of the Mewtwo fans, I have to account for that possibility.

It's not an evolution... Mewtwo just changes physical appearance. It's referred to as Mewtwo's "Awakened Forme". Forme changes are becoming pretty frequent in Pokemon.
Take this guy changing into this guy. They're the same Pokemon. Just different appearances and sometimes different stats/moves.

 

[Fastblade5035]

Mewtwo- 95%
See above reasons, they said all, that really needs to be said.

Want 100%
Its Mewtwo. As long as Lucario and Mewtwo co-exist, no problems here.

Krystal- 27%

Nominations
Owain x5

 

[Chiroz]

Wow, I ran into this thread on the best day!

Mewtwo Chances: 95%

I'd say Mewtwo has the most chance to be in the game out of any newcomer, but I won't claim he has 100% chance to be in the game.

Reasons have already been explained very well by previous posters.

Want: 100%

Mewtwo is my most awaited newcomer (returnee?). And I really want to see him in action.


Krystal prediction: 25%

 

[Diddy Kong]

Mewtwo:

Want: 100%
Chance: 95%

Seriously, he can't be left out this time.

 

[Banjodorf]

I'm just gonna have to agree with everybody. It makes the most sense.

Chance: 95% - The only thing possibly going against Mewtwo's inclusion, is Sakurai randomly forgetting people want him so badly.

Want: 110% (Mathematically consider this 100%) - It's not even a question. Give back my Mewtwo.

Are we doing a preliminary prediction for Krystal as well?

Krystal: 10%.

Oh, and here's another K. Rool x5

 

[Swift Fox]

110%? I believe that 100% is the maximum we each can use to vote on someone's likelihood/want...

(I know you're playing)

Chance: 95% - The only thing possibly going against Mewtwo's inclusion, is Sakurai randomly forgetting people want him so badly.

Want: 110% - It's not even a question. Give back my Mewtwo.

Mathematically, this translates to

Chance: 86.363636%

Want: 100%

Right? (I'm playing too)

 

[Banjodorf]

110%? I believe that 100% is the maximum we each can use to vote on someone's likelihood/want...

(I know you're playing)

Mathematically, this translates to

Right? (I'm playing too)

Sure! Whatever works! I assumed SSBF would know what I meant when putting the calculations together, hah!