Official SWF Tier List v8

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

What about MikeKirby?

People who put their character's name in their tag automatically suck.




















Seriously they're all awful.

 

[NH Cody]

zss has out of shield options?

did they replace her moveset with marth's or something in the last few months that I wasn't aware of

 

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

zss has out of shield options?

did they replace her moveset with marth's or something in the last few months that I wasn't aware of

I think her Upair is fast enough to be decent oos

 

[ぱみゅ]

People who put their character's name in their tag automatically suck.
Seriously they're all awful.

Like that one guy, what's his name?
Mew2king?

 

[NH Cody]

exactly. his mewtwo isn't exactly taj's. but he is better with sheik/marth

 

[Death Arcana]

i feel wario should is too low and should be in front of pika
and D3 in mid tier is laughable
he should be bottom of high imo

 

[Grim Tuesday]

Strange that you'd put him DDD spot below Pikachu and in the same tier
when his match-ups are so much worse?

Pikachu has an incredible MK match-up, beats Snake and Falco, and does fine or loses slightly against the rest of high tier
While Dedede has a terrible MK match-up, terrible ICs match-up, loses to Olimar, Diddy and Falco (and yes, does well against Snake and Marth, but w.e. lol)

Laughable indeed

 

[Sunnysunny]

Lol ZSS doesn't have "awesome OoS options". A few solid ones, sure, but nothing particularly amazing or safe. Definitely sub-par shield options, at least in comparison to the rest of top tier.

Bahaha!
Sorry my Lucario mentality got in the way there.
When your quickest ground move is 5 frames, ZSS'S frame 1 jab and item tossing OoS sounds god like in comparison.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

Her forward roll is also pretty good
no grab though which is lol
so her OoS options are kinda inconsistent, whether they are above or below average depends on a lot of specific factors

 

[Sunnysunny]

Huh. Never knew that about her forward roll. I guess her punishes are pretty situational in retrospect.

Blah.I dunno, I was really salty the day I posted that for some reason. Lucario's version of punishing something half the time is pressuring the opponents shield, doing unorthadox **** or maneuvering away too a better ranger to space moves from. He really only gets real garuentied OoS punishes if the opponent does something stupid and laggy. But then again, his stuff's really safe too at high percents so...

I dunno. Guess it goes both way.
Really, i'm not usually that dumb. :T

Also both our rolls are pretty BS. lol.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Strange that you'd put him DDD spot below Pikachu and in the same tier
when his match-ups are so much worse?

Pikachu has an incredible MK match-up, beats Snake and Falco, and does fine or loses slightly against the rest of high tier
While Dedede has a terrible MK match-up, terrible ICs match-up, loses to Olimar, Diddy and Falco (and yes, does well against Snake and Marth, but w.e. lol)

Laughable indeed

Pikachu's matchups against MK, ICs and Olimar are pretty bad, his Diddy matchup is meh and he doesn't beat Snake nor Falco as hard as a lot of people argue. He's better than DDD but not by that much.

 

[Z'zgashi]

You guys should be thankful you even have OoS options...

;_;

 

[Supermodel From Paris]

ZSS' OOS options are good but they are incredibly situational. She doesn't have an MK nair or anything like it, you have to know exactly where you need to hit them and you've got to like, not get baited and utilt their shield and get snake fsmashed.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

Pikachu's matchups against MK, ICs and Olimar are pretty bad, his Diddy matchup is meh and he doesn't beat Snake nor Falco as hard as a lot of people argue. He's better than DDD but not by that much.

Match-up against MK is pretty bad? It's like -1 dude, that's a lot better than 90% of the cast
And it's a big difference to -3, when MK is literally 50% of the metagame

 

[~ Gheb ~]

-1 is quite optimistic tbh.

 

[RaptorTEC]

For once I don't hate Gheb's avatar.

 

[Cassio]

Pikachu's matchups against MK, ICs and Olimar are pretty bad, his Diddy matchup is meh and he doesn't beat Snake nor Falco as hard as a lot of people argue. He's better than DDD but not by that much.

Nopesies

 

[Z'zgashi]

Nopesies

That counter argument is just... infallible.

 

[Bobwithlobsters]

That counter argument is just... infallible.

Arguing about pika's match ups in this thread is about as bad as arguing about peach's... some topics just aren't worth it

 

[Cassio]

That counter argument is just... infallible.

As was the initial argument

 

[infiniteV115]

These have been some very productive past 4 posts. Congrats guys, especially to you, Cassio.

 

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

You're right V. These last 6 posts are the most productive this thread has been in a long time.

 

[Spelt]

Well that's just not acceptable. At all.

Who wants to talk about crayons?

Yumm, crayons.

 

[Desu~]

Stuff.

Yeah, i really wanted to say this a while ago.

But that's George XIII in your signature isn't it?

 

[Ghostbone]

It's funny
Pikachu player's completely outrageous opinions of the character cause everyone else to downrate him to antagonise them.

 

[Spelt]

Yeah, i really wanted to say this a while ago.

But that's George XIII in your signature isn't it?

Yes it is! George loves crayons too!

 

[Cassio]

It's funny
Pikachu player's completely outrageous opinions of the character cause everyone else to downrate him to antagonise them.

Yeah...

Or, from disdain/fear of uncertainty people feel obliged to vocally fill in gaps in their knowledge of characters with information that 'seems' right to them, as opposed to acknowledging opinions are not always well founded on experience and knowledge.

 

[Shiny Mewtwo aka Jigglysir]

Yeah...

Or, from disdain/fear of uncertainty people feel obliged to vocally fill in gaps in their knowledge of characters with information that 'seems' right to them, as opposed to acknowledging opinions are not always well founded on experience and knowledge.

Acknowledge opinions?

On the internet?

What planet are you from?

 

[Sunnysunny]

So...
Is there really anything left to discuss here? It feels like this game has been going on so long there's seriously nothing else that needs to be mauled over. The only time this place sees "serious" discussion is when the next big tournament rolls around and some mid/high tier character makes it far. Then everyone freaks out about how they've got untapped potential or something. (ZSS, ROB, Olimar)

I feel like i'm just sitting here twiddling my thumbs for smash 4 to come out~

 

[Ghostbone]

Yeah...

Or, from disdain/fear of uncertainty people feel obliged to vocally fill in gaps in their knowledge of characters with information that 'seems' right to them, as opposed to acknowledging opinions are not always well founded on experience and knowledge.

I don't need to have experienced playing against Pikachu to watch the matchup and have results show Pikachu solidly loses to MK.

 

[infiniteV115]

Bahaha!
Sorry my Lucario mentality got in the way there.
When your quickest ground move is 5 frames, ZSS'S frame 1 jab and item tossing OoS sounds god like in comparison.

Yeah but when you remember that ZSS' frame 1 jab (as well as her jab2) are not safe on hit against most chars...it doesn't sound like the greatest OoS option anymore now does it XD

Yes item tossing OoS is pretty good on ZSS which is why she's so good when her suitpieces are out, but outside of that her OoS options aren't good. Not terrible but not good. She's usually better off keeping shielding to a minimum and using her good ground speed to simply avoid things that most other chars would choose to shield.

We would kill for a frame 6 grab like you guys

 

[Cassio]

Yes and the "fundamentals of the American economy are strong" according to credit bureaus of 2008.

Assume your claim about results. Results are not proof of your claim, they are data. Data that requires analysis. The game mechanics of X vs Y character that determine MU's make up only a portion of result's outcomes, which is likely what you need to prove your claim. How do you presume to account for all other factors that play into results and isolate what you need to prove your point? Results are cool, but if you rely completely on results to prove your claim, you're filling in a lot of blanks randomly and making a lot of unproven assumptions to do so, which makes for a poor argument instead of acknowledging the large amount of uncertainty that goes along with using results.

In any case, I couldnt say what you need to prove your claim. But I can tell you what youve provided is far from sufficient.

 

[Spelt]

But I can tell you what youve provided is far from sufficient.

...In your opinion.


And as we've discussed previously, everyone's opinion but my own are incorrect.


Red and blue crayons agree with me on this, but yellow crayon does not. And that's why yellow is a factually bad color.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

Yes and the "fundamentals of the American economy are strong" according to credit bureaus of 2008.

Assume your claim about results. Results are not proof of your claim, they are data. Data that requires analysis. The game mechanics of X vs Y character that determine MU's make up only a portion of result's outcomes, which is likely what you need to prove your claim. How do you presume to account for all other factors that play into results and isolate what you need to prove your point? Results are cool, but if you rely completely on results to prove your claim, you're filling in a lot of blanks randomly and making a lot of unproven assumptions to do so, which makes for a poor argument instead of acknowledging the large amount of uncertainty that goes along with using results.

In any case, I couldnt say what you need to prove your claim. But I can tell you what youve provided is far from sufficient.

So are you saying 'There isn't enough information to support the claim that MK/Pika is -1 (or worse), therefore, it's even"...?
Cause that's either a double standard or an argument from ignorance no matter which way you spin it

Or are you saying that MK/Pika should just have a question mark in lieu of an actual MU ratio, until we fill in all the blanks with actual information?

 

[Djent]

Pika:MK results are, in fact, confounded. There are so few good Pikas that MK players rarely, if ever, have the same level of experience in the MU. And they still win more often than not. Zero started out rough before figuring the MU out very well. AFAIK Nairo had never played a top Pika before he did this & this. M2K has one loss to ESAM's Pika in late 2011 (unfortunately not recorded), while he has many wins against the character. I find it hard to believe that ESAM, Z, and any others you might want to add to the discussion have made less quality progress in the MU than people who have (in a few cases) barely ever played it.

With that in mind, there has to be some glaring hole in the Pika players' gameplay that makes up for their subpar performance even given equal or greater experience. I've heard it's bad habits on the part of good Pikachus (like going for obvious kill setups) - which might actually be right, but I'm not convinced that flaw makes enough of a difference to explain such a huge outcome disparity. Hopefully Cassio (or someone else) can give an account of other dumb stuff Pika players do (despite the fact that they really should know better by now) that costs them wins. It'd have to be something pretty big and underexplored to convince me at this stage in the game.

All this being said, Cassio is right about one thing - results never tell the whole story. I have noticed that a sort of naive empiricism pervades the discussion of many character matchups, Pikachu's included. And frankly, that's not a good thing. Yet when we strive for a more complete empirical account - one that takes into account player skill, MU experience/knowledge, and playstyle - only the 3rd factor can really help the "+0" case. And the 2nd actually helps the "-1" account significantly because of how MKs that are unfamiliar with the MU can still go toe-to-toe with great Pikachus and come out on top. I'm not convinced Pika players are incompetent enough for the MU to be even, once their already-poor performance record is adjusted for experience.

 

[Cassio]

Experience is one thing, but try to be completely honest in answering this question. How many factors really go into the result of a particular set. Everything from character development, stylistic counters, game day mentality, etc. etc. Maybe we can control for one thing or another, or use a sample large enough where certain things arent relevant. But its something thats never been discussed and Im not even sure we'd really have the ability to pinpoint. Its a lot more than we care to acknowledge and it makes the way results are used dangerous.

Spoiler

Speaking on the matter of knowledge and experience specifically on the MU, heres how my view on the matter. Feel free to point out any statement you disagree or reasoning that seems flawed.

Statement 1: Metaknight has a higher margin of error than other characters. It doesnt make him a better character (to an extent), it just means typically more practice is required in fighting MK than the reverse. In particular, MK has a much higher margin of error vs Pikachu than Pika vs MK.
-Statement 1a: To be experienced at fighting MK, you almost always need to come from one of three regions. An overwhelming portion of players with adequate ability and experience in fighting top tier MK's come from 3 regions (Japan, NY/NJ, SoCal). Something pika doesnt have.

Statement 2: Pikachu doesnt take much specialty knowledge to fight compared to most of the cast. DI to avoid thunder, SDI to escape multihits, dont get grabbed if you can be chaingrabbed. Having good DI, SDI, and avoiding chaingrabs isnt specific to pikachu, theyre basic skills you need to be good at the game. If you have good basic skills in the game, you're fairly well off experience wise vs Pikachu.

Statement 3: Pikas development is stunted. I say this in comparison to a character like MK, who's hyper development gives him an edge in MU knowledge/experience that applies to all MUs across the board (assuming youre a top level player). By comparison pikas player base and development is among the worst in the game, let alone among high tiers.

Using these statements, Id argue MK has a pretty dominating advantage in the experience/knowledge category.

Counterpoint: The popular alternate argument (stated in many different ways) is that top pikas have played Metaknight considerably moreso than Metaknights top pikas. My counter-argument against this is this becomes basically irrelevant at top level play, and I refer to statement 1a as supporting evidence (not just for pika, but all characters).

Statement 1 can apply to tons of characters and statement 3 can apply to most except for like, Marth.
I dont expect everyone to adopt this perspective, but I do expect people will either find flaws in the assumptions/reasoning or acknowledge its validity.

So are you saying 'There isn't enough information to support the claim that MK/Pika is -1 (or worse), therefore, it's even"...?
Cause that's either a double standard or an argument from ignorance no matter which way you spin it

Or are you saying that MK/Pika should just have a question mark in lieu of an actual MU ratio, until we fill in all the blanks with actual information?

Well ego driven as it sounds, partly I think I'm better equipped to make an analysis of pika and data concerning pika, particularly because the community's understanding of him is (understandably) low.

However more broadly, there's something Ive felt for awhile but couldnt quite articulate regarding MUs. I really think we try too hard to apply too much certainty to things we really arent certain about. Actually, its a bad habit humans have when we try to reason, filling in gaps for things we dont know instead of admitting we don't know or stating that theres a range of uncertainty.

I really dont think we have the capability to distinguish between a lot of ratios well enough. I think thats also why it takes forever to determine MU's, because theres no way for us to realistically distinguish them when so many factors come into play. I think to be more honest, we should limit our MUs to neutral, advantage, disadvantage, and for really bad MUs with things like 0-deaths strong advantage and strong disadvantage.

 

[Grim Tuesday]

It is for that reason that I try to avoid giving ratios on my character
it doesn't feel right lol

 

[Djent]

There are a nearly infinite number of factors that can go into a set. For instance, a poor night's sleep, pain in one of your fingers, an unusual texture hack, crowd reactions, etc. But not all of potential contributors (or nearly all of them, since it is a potentially unbounded set) play a role in any given match. And the ones that do may, but also may not, together compose a significant part of the outcome determination. Furthermore, the larger the set of observed interactions, the less the improbable and situational factors are likely to influence the overall data trend. I'm not convinced that Pika:MK has been played enough for us to be sure there are no lurking confounds, but I do think it's been played enough that we can at least make tentative claims about what's going on. Tentative claims which, although not set in stone, are still better than unaided speculation.

Regarding what we do and don't know: I'm fully comfortable operating within a "range of uncertainty," as Cassio puts it. In truth, results based analysis never gets you to certainty, especially if done inductively. But from a decision-theoretic perspective, it is possible to determine which are the most probable theories given the available evidence. This isn't the same as "filling in gaps" - it's assigning relative confidence levels between competing explanations. If characters A and B play 10 times, and A wins 8 of those times, there's no way to be sure the matchup isn't even. But that doesn't mean that the claim that it is even, is on the same level of certainty as the claim that A wins, nor is it as unlikely as the claim that B wins. Observation does not exhaust matchup discussion, but it does constrain the likelihoods of explanations most else being equal. We need to be careful to treat uncertainty spectrums as real spectrums, and not as monochrome - because the latter is every bit as dangerous, if not moreso, than dichotomistic thinking.

Regarding Cassio's experience claims, I think they're an interesting way of thinking about MU experience, but I'm not sure they're right. First of all, while we frequently talk of players having "good DI" or "good spacing," the execution of these skills is still highly sensitive to individual characters' move properties. I might have good DI overall, but still DI incorrectly for a situation that I don't frequently encounter - in the very same way that I can be "good at guitar," yet still **** up a song I've never played before. So I do think actually playing competent people in a MU is important, not just having good fundamentals overall. In terms of MK experience, I agree that people who live in the regions you mentioned are the most privileged (although technically Japan isn't a "region" - it's two ). But that doesn't mean players outside of those regions can't still get worthwhile experience in the MU. For instance, Seibrik was, for a time, a national-level threat with Meta Knight, and practice against him definitely helped ESAM during his formative years (not so much now). FOW isn't the greatest MK, but he's far above average, and Z is probably better off from playing him than the MKs who never get to fight competent Pikas. Lastly, I do concede it's possible that Pika's progress is stunted. But, as I already mentioned, I'm not sure what changes could produce a dramatic enough change in the way the MK MU is played, so as to shift it away from a seemingly mild to moderate disadvantage.

 

[Seagull Joe]

Stop typing paragraphs people. Ain't nobody got time for that ****.

 

[Djent]

If you've got time for reading pages of inane stuff, you've got time for a paragraph.