Now that the Gematsu characters aren't guaranteed, which newcomers do you think are the most likely

[PixelPasta]

Disclaimer - this isn't a place to discuss whether the Gematsu leak is still credible or not. Rather, it is a place where you share the newcomers you think have the highest chance of being playable. If the discussion derails into a Gematsu debate, I would like this topic to be closed.

That said, I want to hear your thoughts. Who do you think are the likeliest characters? List the characters you think have a high chance, and explain why. Feel free to give each a percentage or a rating out of ten.

Personally, I feel like these are the ten most likely characters:
King K. Rool - A hugely popular character with potential for a unique moveset. The presence of Kremlings in Smash Run also boosts his chances.
Ghirahim - A relevant character from the Wii era, which Sakurai seems to be heavily representing. Sakurai seems to be going for two things with his character choices: new faces, and unique move sets. Ghirahim would provide both. As a bonus, he was possibly hinted at during the 'trophy quiz' section of the Smash direct, which has been 'correct' two times now.
A Rhythm Heaven Character - Yes, I know that Gematsu isn't as likely anymore... But the Sneaky Spirit is still in Smash Run. That definitely points to a playable character. I also still believe that the Chorus Kids are the most likely.
Takamaru - Sakurai has stated that he wants to use this smash game to revive old franchises. Right now, it looks like Takamaru is the most likely candidate for that, due to his popularity and recent relevance.
Ridley - Simply put, he is too popular and has been teased far too much for him not to be playable.
Shulk - Honestly, I still think he has a chance. He is pretty popular and represents the Wii era, much like many other characters that Sakurai has added.
Krystal - With the recent announcement of Star Fox Wii U, now seems like the perfect time to include Krystal. She is popular, and could be unique - which is surprising for a Star Fox character. I think she will be revealed in a Star Fox themed trailer, along with the return of Falco and Wolf.
Dark Pit - He was heavily teased in Palutena's reveal. And now that Lucina is confirmed to be an individual fighter, I think Dark Pit is all the more likely. He will probably be kept hidden until after the release of the game.
Isaac - I think he has a shot. He would be unique, and is fairly popular. Sounds good enough to me.
Chibi Robo - Now, I know that there isn't really any 'proof' of his inclusion, but I'm still willing to gamble that he might be in. I will admit that there is a bit of personal bias here - but it just feels like a 'Sakurai' thing to do.

Runner up: Dixie Kong. Sakurai might prioritise her over K. Rool, because she is a female and is more relevant. The only thing going against her is her lack of uniqueness, although that didn't stop Lucina.


What about you?

 

[StrangeTamer]

Shulk.
Chrous Men, if not a Rhythm Heaven rep.
King K. Rool and/or Dixie Kong. I'll be suprised if neither of them get in.
I'm 50/50 about Ridley.

I don't think Dark Pit is getting in, I think he'll just be an alt for Pit, otherwise he would be on the website.
I'm not sure about Isaac, I do like him but I think non-sword characters will get more priority.

 

[HeavyLobster]

Shulk is very likely, considering how many newcomers are from the best of the Wii/DS/3DS. A Rhythm Heaven rep also would fit into this mold. Highly requested characters like Mewtwo and K. Rool also have a good chance. (Ridley is pretty clearly a stage boss, and while Sakurai certainly could pull a Toon Link, I wouldn't count on it) Outside of that, anything could happen.

 

[Chandeelure]

Bandana Dee.

 

[GamerGuy09]

Bandana Dee.

Kirby shouldn't only have 3 reps when the other guys are getting 4+ characters.

I'm banking on a trailer that reveals Meta Knight and Bandana Dee in August.

 

[Autumn ♫]

I feel that K.Rool, Shulk, Ridley, and a new Zelda character are the most likely (preferably Vaati) along with some more last minute characters like Dark Pit and possibly Dixie

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Shulk - He still has heaps going for him. He's now part of a series (Xenoblade Chronicles X) and there have been tweets hinting at his inclusion. He's currently the newcomer I feel most confident about.

Ridley - Meta Ridley isn't Ridley. With the total shocker we got yesterday I wouldn't count Ridley out.

Isaac - He has a better chance without the gematsu leak at least, I think he's certainly up there.

Rhythm Heaven rep - Even if it isn't Chorus Kids, they have an enemy in smash run which could be a great sign for the series.

K. Rool - There isn't anything besides the kremlins in smash run that could point to him, but I still think he's one to watch.

Dixie Kong - With clones now a thing I could see Dixie being a semi clone of Diddy. I could even see both K Rool and Dixie getting in.

Krystal - This one feels kinda random....but Sakurai seems to be going wild with the females this time around. Her inclusion could be a possibility if Sakurai is going to town with female representation. Only thing that doesn't bode well is that we still only have Fox revealed, then again that could mean nothing.

 

[SmashAdr]

Ridley
King K Rool Dixie Kong
Zelda Newcomer
Bandana Dee

 

[XenothiumX]

the only way I feel the Chorus men have a chance of making it into smash is if the Gematsu leak wasn't just a bunch of lucky guesses and actually had true information.

with that being said Shulk still has a chance whether or not the Gematsu leak is right or wrong about him.

now seeing the possibility of the Gematsu leak being completely wrong from this point I would say that opens the doors for King. K Rool, Dixie Kong, and Krystal.

I don't know what to think about Ridley part...

 

[cmbsfm]

Shulk and Ridley are guaranteed, everyone else I don't know

 

[~Krystal~]

I think Shulk is still valid. Dixie Kong is almost a certainty given how well she could transition to semi-clone status, with some unique abilities of her own. Not to mention, she has a sizable fanbase on both sides of the isle. With the exception of Ganondorf, the villains will probably get the shaft again, and if any new villain comes, it'll probably be Toon Ganondorf or other such nonsense. Krystal is a polarizing character who I think is a long shot, but Snake was sort of that way, too. I dunno. It's anyone's game now that we can dare to dream about 100 character rosters again.

 

[praline]

Shulk still, Isaac, Ridley and K. Rool.

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

*Ponder*

Rhythm Heaven Character
As stated, there's still the Sneaky Spirits. I'd say it's between Marshal and the Rhythm Heaven Girl.

Zelda Character
Mario have Rosalina. Pokemon have Greninja. I think it would be a bit sad if Zelda had nothing new. My personal guess would be Tetra... But I don't rule out Ghirahim.

Medusa / Hades
We have absolutely no news of them.

Retro Character
Maybe Takamaru? I feel like it wouldn't be a Smash Bros without a true retro character.

Ridley
Dat teasing tho.

Advance Wars character
Absolutely personal wishlist, but I think the serie really deserves a spot.

 

[Banjodorf]

Just hoping for Shulk, Rhythm Heaven rep (The Sneaky Spirit makes it almost a guarantee), K. Rool and ABSOLUTELY Ridley.

Shulk has so much going for him, Sneaky Spirits are a thing, Sakurai is dancing around Rids too much, and not having K. Rool would be criminal since we got 4 FE reps!

 

[8-peacock-8]

Shulk, Ridley, and K Rool. Just like a lot of people said.

Personal choice, Rayman. Because i'm in denial.

 

[BlindFox]

Krystal, King K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Ridley and many more. Now almost anyone could get in (Except for Goku, Shrek and other characters that have absolutely nothing to do with Nintendo. OBVIOUSLY. I really can't understand why there are people wanting this kind of characters to get in, I think it's ridiculous...), and that makes things interesting, don't you think?

 

[DANICK]

I agree with your choices except for dark pit, i think he will be a assist

 

[OctiVick]

Marshal (RH) - A Rhythm Heaven Character seems likely even without the leak and I think marshal would be more possible

Zelda Newcomer - The larger franchises seem to be getting newcomers so I think there might be one for Zelda (possibly Tetra)

Dixie and/or K. Rool - The DK series is back on the map and smash run proves that they are taking elements from new and old DK games so it could be Dixie representing the Return games or K. Rool for the older DKC

Chibi Robo - A bit of an out there choice but the series is pretty know at this point and I could personally see them adding him

Mona (Wario Ware) - With the Wario Ware series still growing there is a chance that there could be a character purely representing the series, and I could see Mona getting that role because of her popularity and being in the series since day one

Bandanna Dee - Kirby is well deserving of 4 reps at this point and B. Dee seems to be a perfect fit for his recurring status in the series now

Takamaru - Most likely retro rep at this point to be honest

Bowser Jr. - I still think they wouldn't show ALL the Mario characters at the start

Wonder Red - Because I'm in denial

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Thing is, with the inclusion of Robin and Lucina (and maybe even moreso the loss of Chrom) it really pulled the carpet out from under peoples expectations.

It's all to play for now.

 

[MagnesD3]

Ridley, King K. Rool, Dixie, Krystal, Shulk, Chorus Kids, Demise, Dark Pit and Mewtwo if you count him.

 

[loganhogan]

I don't know how many to expect but I will list 6 characters I feel they fall under the safe category.

1. Dark Pit:
The way he was teased in Palutena's reveal, the potential hints like the picture in Sakurai's twitter last year. Lucina was just confirmed as a Marth clone and Dark Pit could easily end up one too.

2 and 3. K. Rool and Dixie:
They have the potential for a dual reveal like Robin and Lucina did. The trailer could revolve around the kongs fighting their big bad. Dixie doesn't necessarily have to be a clone but her advantage is that she has a model similar to Diddy so I assume she'd be easy to make.

4. Bandana Dee:
Similar to Dixie, Bandana Dee has an easy to make character model. This may be farfetched but I think that King Dedede not having Waddle Dees in his moveset could work in favor of Bandana Dee. He would also bring a cool spear moveset so what's not to like right?

5. Rhythm Heaven:
I don't really want one but the spirit in smash run is about the only argument I can find in their favor, also they would represent a new series.

6. A wildcard clone:
Yup a clone/semi clone no one would expect, I don't know who but Sakurai's statement:
"However, whenever there is even a small difference in abilities, that character gets an actual roster slot."
Leads me to believe there will be more clones.

 

[MooseSmuggler]

Shulk is still safe and has a lot going for him, even without Gematsu. Tweets from the voice actors, Sakurai being a fan, Xenoblade's merits, etc. Shulk is a definite still.

With Gematsu taking the shot it did, Chorus Men could suffer Chrom's fate. But I feel like Rhythm Heaven WILL get a rep. I don't know anything about the franchise, but with them getting a Smash Run enemy, I feel they'll have playable representation.

Aside from that, I can see DK getting a third rep, and possibly Ridley. Doesn't matter to me as long as I get my bby Shulk.

Spoiler

Can I also go on the record as saying that the Gematsu leak never claimed to list the only newcomers? Even if it has become a lot less reliable, it never threatened anyone's chances. I love how people act like it did :/

 

[BluePikmin11]

The most likely to me now are still:
1. Dark Pit
2. Dixie Kong
3. Shulk
4. Takamaru
5. A Rhythm Heaven character
That's my list on who's very likely.

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Shulk's still my number one by far. After that, Dixie, some RH rep, Isaac, Andy, and Ridley in that order.

 

[Bedoop]

6. A wildcard clone:
Yup a clone/semi clone no one would expect, I don't know who but Sakurai's statement:
"However, whenever there is even a small difference in abilities, that character gets an actual roster slot."
Leads me to believe there will be more clones.

Doctor Mario 4 Smash.
...As his own Character.
THANK YOU, LUCINA.

 

[jigglover]

Bandana Dee.

Kirby shouldn't only have 3 reps when the other guys are getting 4+ characters.

I'm banking on a trailer that reveals Meta Knight and Bandana Dee in August.

Whereas Donkey Kong and Metroid, two franchises which are honestly far more iconic to Nintendo than Kirby is, are stuck with 2 representatives. Seriously, Kirby should consider itself lucky...

 

[loganhogan]

Doctor Mario 4 Smash.
...As his own Character.
THANK YOU, LUCINA.

I was thinking more of a separate character like Bowser Jr.

 

[GamerGuy09]

Whereas Donkey Kong and Metroid, two franchises which are honestly far more iconic to Nintendo than Kirby is, are stuck with 2 representatives. Seriously, Kirby should consider itself lucky...

I don't see dankey kang in the debut trailer for SSBB. Kirby is way more important than Donkey Kong. Kirby along with Mario, Link, and Pikachu were the first 4 shown characters for SSBB. Which shows his importance. Also Kirby is getting a new game that heavily involves Bandana Dee.

 

[CheeseBroJoe]

It seems that there is a general consensus that Shulk, King K. Rool, and Ridley are among the most likely to become newcomers along with a rhythm heaven rep which still seeming likely due to the sneaky spirits' presence in smash run. I tend I agree, but I still see characters such as a new zelda rep like vaati or Ghirahim, Isaac, and a retro rep ala Takamaru or Duck Hunt Dog being rather plausible.

 

[chronomantic]

-Rhythm Heaven character
-Zelda character
-Shulk
-Dixie Kong

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Kirby along with Mario, Link, and Pikachu were the first 4 shown characters for SSBB. Which shows his importance.

I think it shows Sakurais bias more than anything. (Or I guess you could call it a directors perk)

 

[jigglover]

I don't see dankey kang in the debut trailer for SSBB. Kirby is way more important than Donkey Kong. Kirby along with Mario, Link, and Pikachu were the first 4 shown characters for SSBB. Which shows his importance. Also Kirby is getting a new game that heavily involves Bandana Dee.

?_? I don't think so. Particularly here in the UK (and for the rest of Europe, I believe) Kirby doesn't get much limelight at all. As in, the only game I've ever seen advertised here is Kirby's Epic Yarn, and I had never actually heard of the Kirby franchise before SSBB. The fact that you argue Kirby to be a bigger deal than Donkey Kong is amazing, lol. Donkey Kong is literally the most iconic game Nintendo has every created/released/whatever, and he is a very prominent character in the franchise. Donkey Kong Country is one of the most popular games of all time, and a fandom of that one game probably makes up a sizable amount of the entire Kirby fandom.

Metroid is, theoretically, more subject to opinion, but... Well it's Nintendo's take on the darker side of gaming (by Nintendo standards >_>). Kirby isn't particularly unique (platformer... powerups...) while Metroid is renowned throughout almost all fanbases as a huge franchise for Nintendo, and should be remembered as such.

Kirby has... well, the director's the same. That's why Kirby is one of the Big 4 to him. Director biased, as @ Sabrewulf238 kindly 'd me over

 

[Nietona]

Gotta concur with most people here. Probably Ridley, Shulk, and K. Rool. Potentially RH rep, also.

I personally see all these characters getting in over a Kirby rep. They all seem more popular than Bandana Dee, they're all from franchises more underrepresented than Kirby, and I know at least Ridley has a metric ton of stuff going for him right now. I don't see Bandana Dee beating that, even with things like him being removed from Dedede's moveset.

 

[GamerGuy09]

Gotta concur with most people here. Probably Ridley, Shulk, and K. Rool. Potentially RH rep, also.

I personally see all these characters getting in over a Kirby rep. They all seem more popular than Bandana Dee, they're all from franchises more underrepresented than Kirby, and I know at least Ridley has a metric ton of stuff going for him right now. I don't see Bandana Dee beating that, even with things like him being removed from Dedede's moveset.

Robin just beat over Chrom, we can't follow the "that person has more fans" thought process anymore. If one word describes Sakurai, it is unpredictable. And it would be unpredictable for him to put in Bandana Dee.

?_? I don't think so. Particularly here in the UK (and for the rest of Europe, I believe) Kirby doesn't get much limelight at all. As in, the only game I've ever seen advertised here is Kirby's Epic Yarn, and I had never actually heard of the Kirby franchise before SSBB. The fact that you argue Kirby to be a bigger deal than Donkey Kong is amazing, lol. Donkey Kong is literally the most iconic game Nintendo has every created/released/whatever, and he is a very prominent character in the franchise. Donkey Kong Country is one of the most popular games of all time, and a fandom of that one game probably makes up a sizable amount of the entire Kirby fandom.

Metroid is, theoretically, more subject to opinion, but... Well it's Nintendo's take on the darker side of gaming (by Nintendo standards >_>). Kirby isn't particularly unique (platformer... powerups...) while Metroid is renowned throughout almost all fanbases as a huge franchise for Nintendo, and should be remembered as such.

Kirby has... well, the director's the same. That's why Kirby is one of the Big 4 to him. Director biased, as @ Sabrewulf238 kindly 'd me over

I still believe Kirby is more important, and should get 1 more rep, but that's your opinion and I obviously can't change that. So I guess we have to agree to disagree.

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

Gematsu might be dead. But now people are overusing the "if FE has 4 reps, this franchise should have 4 or more reps too" theory. Maybe we should change it to "3 reps, 1 clone".
For now Im just thinking that FE got lucky thanks to cloning technologies and at least DK would deserve at least 1 more newcomer.

 

[Nietona]

Robin just beat over Chrom, we can't follow the "that person has more fans" thought process anymore.

It's not just that, though. Kirby already has three characters; the most any of those four franchises have is two. I'd expect more from Donkey Kong, at the very least.

Also, one of the reasons I'd argue against Meta Knight/Bandana Dee in August is the other anniversaries for franchises around that time. I think thanks to Operation Rainfall, Shulk has his NA release anniversary in August, Metroid has like six games released in August (about 5 of them being NA releases while Metroid is the debut of the entire franchise), DK has an anniversary for DK Classics, and Rhythm Heaven is August 3rd, I believe? While I may be putting too much stock in anniversaries, they've been used so far, and even if Kirby has an anniversary in August, it faces stiff competition and I think the only saving grace it really has from these other franchise powerhouses is that it was created by Sakurai himself.

I'm never going to tell you that you shouldn't believe because Bandana Dee is far from impossible; I just seriously don't see it as likely compared to the other reps we could get. I wish you luck, though.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I'm expecting Geno, Ridley and Sukapon

 

[MooseSmuggler]

It's not just that, though. Kirby already has three characters; the most any of those four franchises have is two. I'd expect more from Donkey Kong, at the very least.

Also, one of the reasons I'd argue against Meta Knight/Bandana Dee in August is the other anniversaries for franchises around that time. I think thanks to Operation Rainfall, Shulk has his NA release anniversary in August, Metroid has like six games released in August (about 5 of them being NA releases while Metroid is the debut of the entire franchise), DK has an anniversary for DK Classics, and Rhythm Heaven is August 3rd, I believe? While I may be putting too much stock in anniversaries, they've been used so far, and even if Kirby has an anniversary in August, it faces stiff competition and I think the only saving grace it really has from these other franchise powerhouses is that it was created by Sakurai himself.

I'm never going to tell you that you shouldn't believe because Bandana Dee is far from impossible; I just seriously don't see it as likely compared to the other reps we could get. I wish you luck, though.

It was Shulk's European release, August 19th. But yeah, apparently next month marks a lot of anniversaries apparently. Maybe a RH rep on the 3rd and Shulk on the 19th?

 

[Nietona]

It was Shulk's European release, August 19th. But yeah, apparently next month marks a lot of anniversaries apparently. Maybe a RH rep on the 3rd and Shulk on the 19th?

Ah, that's right. Thank you for clearing that up!

It's really anyone's guess at this point. We could get Ridley, we could get Shulk, we could get a RH rep, we could get... well, pretty much anything with an anniversary is high up there for me. Although, I don't see Sakurai being that predictable. I think we'd probably get one character reveal time, at best, in August? It's possible that it might reveal a RH rep and Shulk in the same trailer, albeit probably very unlikely.

 

[jigglover]

Ah, that's right. Thank you for clearing that up!

It's really anyone's guess at this point. We could get Ridley, we could get Shulk, we could get a RH rep, we could get... well, pretty much anything with an anniversary is high up there for me. Although, I don't see Sakurai being that predictable. I think we'd probably get one character reveal time, at best, in August? It's possible that it might reveal a RH rep and Shulk in the same trailer, albeit probably very unlikely.

Or you could have Ridley and Shulk duking it out in a rhythm-based battle, with Marshall/Chorus Men/Whoever being prominent in the trailer also. You would have a bunch of the Rhythm Heaven cast appearing throughout the trailer, with Ridley and Shulk being introduced with their own character splashes in their preparation for the duel. Then, as they are having a battle of the timing the RH rep can jump forward in front of the screen and get their character splash, leading on to a quick rhythm thrashing for both Shulk and Ridley and then it launches into Gameplay and stuff.

We could even get two, or possibly three so as to not leave Ridley out, trailers. One for RH Rep, one for Shulk and the last for Ridley (last is fairly optional though). LMAO imagine Chorus Men fighting a huge powerful boss from Xenoblade with claps. Ridley could be going on a rampage before-hand and we get his character splash. Then we launch into Shulk and each of the individual Chorus Men having a chain attack (so a total chain of 4) against Ridley.

Yeah, I know, I should work for Nintendo, right?