Orange and Corps both just did a 180 -- from town reading to scum reading me, and from wanting an orange lynch to not wanting an orange lynch, respectively, but lets back up a bit, shall we?
We both just did a 180 because of mod-confirmed info that one of the three of us is scum.
Why 50 posts? Isn't that rather arbitrary?
It was a reasonable, round estimate for the minimum number of posts for thread control (seeing as it is a bit less than twice what the most frequent poster had D1).
So what happened to this? Please explain why this analysis is no longer valid.
Again, why the sudden shift?
I still thought you were town in the post you were referencing in the "again, why the sudden shift?", but I saw that worst-case scenario for town would be a NL at that point, so I would have been willing to compromise to anyone. The reason for the sudden shift is already posted in #450. I agree that Phoenix's arguments aren't all well-grounded and if he didn't do so much to help town this phase I would say that he's trying to push a lot of slots out of desperation to look like he's scumhunting (if I recall correctly, his first vote on me and his first vote on BarMaven were about 3 minutes apart), but I see literally no incentives for being so active as scum and wanting to increase thread activity. You could argue that he wanted to do that to look townie, but I'm pretty sure that if activity didn't increase significantly, the thread would have just died and scum would have won anyways. The only possibility I could think of is if he were an indie slot and felt he needed complete thread control, but even if that is true, town will autolose if mafia isn't lynched this phase.
Hmmmm. Yeah, I misinterpreted role PM- and I later amended it, when Soup informed me of such. It's worth noting that you yourself exhibit a drastic position change here: what indicates, to you, that I'm ingenue?
You being genuine or not depends upon if you actually misinterpreted the role PM or if you used that as an excuse to justify a complete 180 on Polish.
Also, it could have been an attempt to gain a third ally. If Polish were a less experienced player, he could have interpreted the correct role read as a confirmed townie and the three of you could have steamrolled everyone in your way the rest of the game. 3 would be majority today (and close to majority yesterday), so worst-case scenario is that you would get lynched and bring Polish down with you, getting far too close to endgame with a scumslot still left. Keep in mind this is still completely hypothetical, but it's still a possibility that I'm considering right now.