Cut Veterans: Who do you think WON'T make it?

[Jerry Applesauce]

I'd hate that honestly, there are far more important/better characters from the Fire Emblem universe to choose from than Tharja, in my opinion. She just has high popularity going for her. The Fire Emblem fanbase and universe isn't as big as Pokemon (I'm saying this because Greninja likely got in due to high popularity/usage/Froakie being in the anime), and the selections for playable characters has to kinda make sense. If they were to throw in a magic user it would probably be better to throw in Celica or Robin or something.

 

[ErenJager]

Ivysaur
Squirtle
Snake
ROB

Maaaaybe.... Lucas, Wolf, Jigglypuff, Ike?

 

[pupNapoleon]

I can see up to seven cuts, mostly because that number seems to be legitimate for continuing to hone in on the Smash Crowd. That said, it would mean 32 characters returning. I could see it going as far as 30 with 9 cuts. But, who, do you ask?

1-2) Squirtle and Ivysaur, of course.
3) Lucas, at least should be.
4) Falco, really should be. Could be Wolf instead, but it shouldn't be. Wolf could have even been to transition Falco out.
5) Jigglypuff. Make way. I would absolutely believe Villager filled her niche.
6) Toon Link. But ya know, he is confirmed, so screw that. And thusly all of my opinions and thoughts.
7) Lucas, as his franchise is overrepresented. Or, Ness, and then Jiggs isnt the only vet 12 cut; insert 'phasing us out of Falco' arguing here.

Hmm.. this is hard. I'm sure there will be cuts I did not intend, though.

 

[Spinosaurus]

What makes the Mother franchise inferior that having 2 characters is over-representation?

 

[loganhogan]

So sorry for derailing!

My top cut guesses include Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur., and Lucas

Snake: Brawl's style had a more realistic appearance possible to make the theme fit with Snake, yet it's switched back to a cartoony environment. Snake could also fit in this cartoony style but I suspect he's getting the boot, and some of the new items work just like some of his moveset mechanics like the jet item the steel diver and Sheik's new grenade.

Squirtle and Ivysaur: This mainly due to Solozard, they can fit them in if he wants to as separate characters but I really doubt it.

Lucas: This one i'm not even sure about, the main reason I suspect is because of he Fem.Villager and the Male Wii Fit Trainer. Although Lucas and Ness aren't the same character they hold the same role and look a lot alike.

I can also see them leaving out Ike, Falco, or Jigglypuff.

I can see up to seven cuts, mostly because that number seems to be legitimate for continuing to hone in on the Smash Crowd. That said, it would mean 32 characters returning. I could see it going as far as 30 with 9 cuts. But, who, do you ask?
1-2) Squirtle and Ivysaur, of course.
3) Lucas, at least should be.
4) Falco, really should be. Could be Wolf instead, but it shouldn't be. Wolf could have even been to transition Falco out.
5) Jigglypuff. Make way. I would absolutely believe Villager filled her niche.
6) Toon Link. But ya know, he is confirmed, so screw that. And thusly all of my opinions and thoughts.
7) Lucas, as his franchise is overrepresented. Or, Ness, and then Jiggs isnt the only vet 12 cut; insert 'phasing us out of Falco' arguing here.
Hmm.. this is hard. I'm sure there will be cuts I did not intend, though.

Lucas cut twice?

 

[MargnetMan23]

5) Jigglypuff. Make way. I would absolutely believe Villager filled her niche.

7) Lucas, as his franchise is overrepresented. Or, Ness, and then Jiggs isnt the only vet 12 cut; insert 'phasing us out of Falco' arguing here.

"Villager filling Jigglypuff's niche" I remember hearing that from somewhere... assuming that's mostly a joke it still doesn't make any sense. Frankly, Ness isn't going anywhere. Original 12 helps and Earthbound is easily the most significant entry in the series right now.

Onto my opinion, I don't really think we'll have that many cuts at all (nor do I want to think that because I really want to see the puff return) I mean, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake, that's who I see leaving. Don't think anybody else would be cut for any reason other than time constraints (or IC could be cut due to being difficult to program but... no.)

 

[ErenJager]

What makes the Mother franchise inferior that having 2 characters is over-representation?

One game released outside of japan.
All other games released a billion years ago in japan.

Other franchises have been around prior to mother, and have gone onto have way more games and recent games, still don't have two reps.
Mother is a retro series essentially.
It's like giving ice climbers another rep.
A darn shame f-zero and metroid only had one rep in brawl and mother had 2.

 

[Spinosaurus]

One game released outside of japan.
All other games released a billion years ago in japan.

Other franchises have been around prior to mother, and have gone onto have way more games and recent games, still don't have two reps.
Mother is a retro series essentially.
It's like giving ice climbers another rep.
A darn shame f-zero and metroid only had one rep in brawl and mother had 2.

It's a series with three games that has a huge cult following. Not comparable to Ice Climbers.
If we're talking sales then neither Metroid nor F-Zero should get two characters as well.

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Other franchises have been around prior to mother, and have gone onto have way more games and recent games, still don't have two reps.
Mother is a retro series essentially.

Also, Mother 3 came out in 2006. Don't really think that's retro, especially since Brawl came out in 2008.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Also take into account that there aren't any major recurring characters in the Metroid franchise barring Samus and Ridley, and that Captain Falcon is essentially the "poster boy" of the F-Zero franchise. With all this discussion, I can imagine how difficult and stressful the character selection process is for Sakurai.

However, personally, I wouldn't mind another F-Zero rep. Jody Summer or Black Shadow are ok in my book/mind/opinion/viewpoint.

Aaaaand we've been off topic.

 

[ErenJager]

So F-zero and Metroid have been around just as long as mother, have way more titles in their respective franchise, nearly representation on every console, and been distributed more around the world then mother.

But deserve one rep.

Sales? add up how many games the franchise has sold as a whole and compare it to the mother franchise as a whole.

Add a character from mother, they'll play similar to ness, add another character from metroid or f-zero, you get a character that plays completely different.

Also take into account that there aren't any major ecurring characters in the Metroid franchise barring Samus and Ridley, and that Captain Falcon is essentially the "poster boy" of the F-Zero franchise. I can imagine how difficult the character selection process is for Sakurai...

However, personally, I wouldn't mind another F-Zero rep. Jody Summer or Black Shadow are ok in my book/mind/opinion/viewpoint.

Aaaaand we've been off topic.

F-Zero also had an anime, it's/ was moderately popular in japan. Also F-zero has a handful of characters aka Goroh whose been an AT since brawl, and I think a trophy in melee? Like the representation is there just not as playable characters.

 

[Spinosaurus]

My point was, Mother is a C-Tier franchise, but so are Metroid and F-Zero. They might have sold better (obviously, since they have more games), but that doesn't change the fact they're all niche. F-Zero in particular isn't any better than Mother when it also has three main games that undersold, and while it had spin offs they were outsourced anyway.

Also Metroid has two characters, and there's really no one but Falcon for F-Zero. Mother at least has a different major character.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Yeah, and having an anime doesn't exactly warrant more representation in the form of more playable characters. Fire Emblem has had a cartoon series and 14 titles but only 2 playable characters. Star Fox has had five games in the series with three playable characters. There are probably a lot of factors going into the character selection process for this game, and I agree with most of the outcomes thus far.

 

[mini paincakes]

My best guesses for cuts are Ivysaur and Squirtle. Followed by snake, even though I love him in brawl. Ike and Lucas might also have a good chance of leaving.

Ivysaur + Squirtle: Obvious cuts since no transforming characters and solo charizard.

Snake: I have no idea whats going to happen to him. I think he has decent shot of coming back, but I would not be surprised if he doesn't come back. I'd be a shame is he was cut though.

Ike: I think Ike has a good chance of being replaced by Chrom. If there were three fire emblem characters, they shouldn't all be lords with blue hair and capes. I'd much rather see a fire emblem roster of Marth, Chrom/Ike, and robin than a roster or Ike, Chrom an Marth. but I doubt we'll have three FE reps anyways, so my best guess for the FE roster is Marth and Chrom.

Lucas: I'm not sure about Lucas. He seems like he'd be easy to put into the game since he's a complete clone of Ness. I know Sakurai said he's trying to avoid clones, but we still have toon link. It would be pretty easy to declone Lucas if you ask me, so he might return with an improved moveset. He might stay, but we wouldn't loose much if he left.



Characters that are often said to be cut, but I think will most likely stay:

ROB: Hated by many, but he's unique and a big video game history icon. won't be cut

Ice Climbers: I'm sure Sakurai's team figured out a way to get them working on the 3DS version at this point. Plus we saw many pictures of the polar bear in smash run.

Falco/Wolf: I find it weird that star fox has three reps, but I can't see either of them being cut. Falco has been one of the most popular characters in melee and wolf was fairly well liked in brawl and is fox's main rival/adversary. They might be semi-clones, but they have a lot going for them.

Jigglypuff: I don't understand where all the hate for jiggs comes from. She might not be relevant to pokemon any more, but she's been with smash so long that'd feel weird for her to leave at this point.

 

[ErenJager]

ZSS is like half a character because it's still samus lol. Although yes technically a different character.... Ridley was the clear choice that should have happened.

F-Zero.... Samurai Goroh, Black Shadow, Blood Falcon, Deathborn, ...James McCloud lol

Blood Falcon could be Captain Falcon's Falco.
Black Shadow could be Captain Falcon's Wolf.
Samurai Goroh is a swordsmen, Deathborn is bad ass.
James McCloud is a human version of Fox's dad.... that's just bad ass, imagine... a character with a cross between Captain Falcon's moves and Star Fox's.

 

[Xigger]

I like how every game is praised as a franchise if it's had more than one game. Really degrades the meaning of franchise.

 

[pupNapoleon]

"Villager filling Jigglypuff's niche" I remember hearing that from somewhere... assuming that's mostly a joke it still doesn't make any sense.

It makes complete sense, especially compared to a 'slot' allotment nonsense.
Sakurai has told us he is aiming for a balanced game, and for unique characters. If Villager fills the niche of a floaty aerial character with some strong hard attacks while being lightweight, it could take her spot. Or, however you define Jigglypuffs necessity as a PLAYER, not as a character (meaning, not her personality or your connection to her, just her strengths on the field, very specifically).
It's only nonsense if you think of it as a Pokemon rep versus an Animal Crossing rep (character), rather than the player.

Frankly, Ness isn't going anywhere. Original 12

A general statement, followed up with a completely fan-made construct of absolutely no merit.

Earthbound is easily the most significant entry in the series right now.

I dont even know what this means... that earthbound is the most important game seen in smash?

 

[MargnetMan23]

It makes complete sense, especially compared to a 'slot' allotment nonsense.
Sakurai has told us he is aiming for a balanced game, and for unique characters. If Villager fills the niche of a floaty aerial character with some strong hard attacks while being lightweight, it could take her spot. Or, however you define Jigglypuffs necessity as a PLAYER, not as a character (meaning, not her personality or your connection to her, just her strengths on the field, very specifically).
It's only nonsense if you think of it as a Pokemon rep versus an Animal Crossing rep (character), rather than the player.


A general statement, followed up with a completely fan-made construct of absolutely no merit.

I dont even know what this means... that earthbound is the most important game seen in smash?

Well, considering the fact that Shiek's making it back in for some reason, significance to smash IS a factor, and Original 12 at least has some merit since it hasn't been broken yet (sure you can mention Ness almost leaving, but he didn't, and then with his return to brawl he became even more of a mainstaysecondly, what I meant was that Earthbound is still the most notable entry in the Mother series, in spite of Mother 3 technically being the most recent game. Actual US Release, recent reasonably successful virtual console release, isn't that enough to justify Ness over Lucas?


Also... HOW THE **** DOES VILLAGER FILL THE SAME NICHE AS JIGGLYPUFF THAT MAKES NO ****ING SENSE! Floaty aerial character? One, I see absolutely nothing pointing towards him being an air based fighter, sure, he may have an air game, but you might as well say he's more like Mr. Game and Watch. Two, they're obviously completely different character I'm not even sure how you can argue otherwise. Three, a need for unique characters? Well, then there's absolutely no reason to cut Jigglypuff then =P

I see absolutely no evidence that villager controls the air a way even remotely similar to the way Jigglypuff does, and with their completely different specials, they have completely different tools and stuff at their disposal. Saying Villager covers Jigglypuff's niche makes literally no sense at all. We might as well say Rosaluma steals Ice Climber's niche while we're at it, that's how big of a stretch that is.

So, Jigglypuff could possibly leave (not a big chance, but it's POSSIBLE) but being replaced by Villager isn't a reason. Ness has 0 chance of leaving however, and I would think that would simply be common sense at this point.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Snake, Ivysaur Squirtle, MAYBE Ike (god I hope not)

 

[pupNapoleon]

Well, considering the fact that Shiek's making it back in for some reason, significance to smash IS a factor, and Original 12 at least has some merit since it hasn't been broken yet (sure you can mention Ness almost leaving, but he didn't, and then with his return to brawl he became even more of a mainstaysecondly, what I meant was that Earthbound is still the most notable entry in the Mother series, in spite of Mother 3 technically being the most recent game. Actual US Release, recent reasonably successful virtual console release, isn't that enough to justify Ness over Lucas?


Also... HOW THE **** DOES VILLAGER FILL THE SAME NICHE AS JIGGLYPUFF THAT MAKES NO ****ING SENSE! Floaty aerial character? One, I see absolutely nothing pointing towards him being an air based fighter, sure, he may have an air game, but you might as well say he's more like Mr. Game and Watch. Two, they're obviously completely different character I'm not even sure how you can argue otherwise. Three, a need for unique characters? Well, then there's absolutely no reason to cut Jigglypuff then =P

I see absolutely no evidence that villager controls the air a way even remotely similar to the way Jigglypuff does, and with their completely different specials, they have completely different tools and stuff at their disposal. Saying Villager covers Jigglypuff's niche makes literally no sense at all. We might as well say Rosaluma steals Ice Climber's niche while we're at it, that's how big of a stretch that is.

So, Jigglypuff could possibly leave (not a big chance, but it's POSSIBLE) but being replaced by Villager isn't a reason. Ness has 0 chance of leaving however, and I would think that would simply be common sense at this point.

I didn't say he does fill the role, I explained to you point blank as to a possibility of how he could. An explanation you chose to either not read, or to completely pick and choose segments rather than the contextual summation of the post.

As for original twelve, I find your arguments rather null and circumstantial, but you can find another to have that argument, as it has been made in many, MANY other threads.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I like how every game is praised as a franchise if it's had more than one game. Really degrades the meaning of franchise.

Ice Climbers one game FTW

 

[Morbi]

I would not actually mind if Ganondorf was omitted for Ganon or Toon Ganondorf. I have never really humored the possibility before, but it is always a possibility. Not a very likely one, but still a possibility.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

That'd be pretty neat. If that happens I would like to see a bipedal Ganon based off his Twilight Princess looks. It wouldn't be canon (then again Sheik's current design isn't entirely canon either) but I could imagine it looking pretty dope.

 

[Kevandre]

I'm already pulling my hair out about Ivysaur. Lucas is my second best. After Roy, it's like Sakurai is personally bullying me if he cuts my Brawl mains too

 

[Oracle_Summon]

I think Squirtle and Ivysaur are getting cut. Not that they don't deserve a roster spot, but going up against Mewtwo and Jigglypuff seems impossible.

Against my like for his moveset, I also think Snake won't make it in this Smash game.

Edit: Forgot to mention Falco, because of Customizable movesets and his similar moveset to Fox.

Lucas, because he might be an alternate costume for Ness and customizable movesets could put him in danger.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Yeah, I'm a bit scared for Lucas. He is one of my mains in Brawl. He played and felt so much better than Ness in that game, in my opinion.

I'm probably overthinking this but it seems they've delegated some of Snake's moves to other fighters, or at least assigned moves to other characters that act similarly to a couple of Snake's moves. To be more specific, the Flying Pikmin acts kinda like his Cypher (save for how the Cypher wasn't weighed down by Pikmin), and Sheik now throws grenades.

 

[BaPr]

I'm thinking the two starter Pokemon along with Snake, Wolf and Lucas.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

I think Squirtle and Ivysaur are getting cut. Not that they don't deserve a roster spot, but going up against Mewtwo and Jigglypuff seems impossible.

Against my like for his moveset, I also think Snake won't make it in this Smash game.

Edit: Forgot to mention Falco, because of Customizable movesets and his similar moveset to Fox.

Lucas, because he might be an alternate costume for Ness and customizable movesets could put him in danger.

I've said this before but I sincerely doubt custom movesets will put anyone in danger. Sakurai specified in the Direct that Custom movesets are only available for local play (whether that means single player or multiplayer or both remains unspecified) and online play with friends. If they're limited in usage to that degree then I highly doubt that their existence would be a reason for them to cut characters with movesets similar to other characters'. Not to mention that the "clones" in Brawl have been differentiated enough from the characters they are based off of that cutting them would be a pretty big loss, in my opinion.

Also, I can almost completely guarantee that Lucas will not be an alternate costume for Ness...it makes no sense to have completely separate characters be alternate costumes for characters. It works for the Wii Fit Trainers because in the game the male and female can fulfill the same roles in the game, plus they're sort of generic characters. It works for the Villagers for the same reason, not to mention the Villager is a bit of a customizable character, so it makes sense even more.

 

[Oracle_Summon]

I've said this before but I sincerely doubt custom movesets will put anyone in danger. Custom movesets have been mentioned to only be available for local play (whether that means single player or multiplayer or both remains unspecified) and online play with friends. If they're limited in usage to that degree then I highly doubt that their existence would be a reason for them to cut characters with movesets similar to other characters'. Not to mention that the "clones" in Brawl have been differentiated enough from the characters they are based off of that cutting them would be a greater loss, in my opinion.

What I mean is, what makes Lucas and Falco diverse characters from Ness and Fox, might get scrapped to give Ness and Fox more customizable options.

They are not clones, but more of a different play style than their counterparts, Lucas is more diverse in relation to Ness than Falco is to Fox.

Alternate costumes could hurt as well, but everything is only speculation.

Personally I don't want either of them gone, but I won't say they are free from danger.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

I certainly see your reasoning, and you're totally right about Lucas deviating more from Ness than Falco is regarding Fox.

However, I can still see them being able to give Falco and Wolf customizable options along with Fox. Thanks to Starfox Assault there are tons of options in terms of projectile weapons. For example they could all get a Gatling Gun option but the way they fire it could differ depending on the character. They could do the same for Ness and Lucas; same options, but with slightly different properties depending on the character.

Then again, it is completely possible for them to provide the option of customizing the properties of the moves themselves. Take for example Mario's Shuriken Fireball. Perhaps you could alter its power or speed, or bounce height.

 

[RascalTheCharizard]

I could list many characters who I want to be cut, but as for the ones that I think will be cut, with all biases put aside are:

ROB
Wolf
Snake
Ivysaur
Squirtle
Maybe Lucas
Maybe Ice Climbers

 

[Oracle_Summon]

I certainly see your reasoning, and you're totally right about Lucas deviating more from Ness than Falco is regarding Fox.

However, I can still see them being able to give Falco and Wolf customizable options along with Fox. Thanks to Starfox Assault there are tons of options in terms of projectile weapons. For example they could all get a Gatling Gun option but the way they fire it could differ depending on the character. They could do the same for Ness and Lucas; same options, but with slightly different properties depending on the character.

Then again, it is completely possible for them to provide the option of customizing the properties of the moves themselves. Take for example Mario's Shuriken Fireball. Perhaps you could alter its power or speed, or bounce height.

Hopefully no one gets cut, but honestly, characters will be in danger.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Yeah, definitely, I hope so too. But if Lucas or Falco/Wolf do indeed get cut, then reallocating their moves to Ness/Fox's repertoire of custom moves would be a sensible resolution.

But ultimately, if they do get cut I believe that would be due to time restraints, not the introduction of customizable movesets.

 

[pupNapoleon]

I've said this before but I sincerely doubt custom movesets will put anyone in danger. Sakurai specified in the Direct that Custom movesets are only available for local play (whether that means single player or multiplayer or both remains unspecified) and online play with friends. If they're limited in usage to that degree then I highly doubt that their existence would be a reason for them to cut characters with movesets similar to other characters'. Not to mention that the "clones" in Brawl have been differentiated enough from the characters they are based off of that cutting them would be a pretty big loss, in my opinion.

Also, I can almost completely guarantee that Lucas will not be an alternate costume for Ness...it makes no sense to have completely separate characters be alternate costumes for characters. It works for the Wii Fit Trainers because in the game the male and female can fulfill the same roles in the game, plus they're sort of generic characters. It works for the Villagers for the same reason, not to mention the Villager is a bit of a customizable character, so it makes sense even more.

I'd honestly not considered this before, but customizable movesets seem to DIRECTLY put clone based characters in jeopardy. Yes, they are not for main matches, but the whole draw of them is that they play as slightly altered versions of the characters they are based off of. This would mean that Fox, Falco, and Wolf would each have their own moveset combinations. If we take each base moveset/total number of number of combinations, variable N, then this moveset of Fox would have 3N combinations, and Pikachu would have 1N.
No... no no no, ridiculous.

As for 'it makes no sense for completely different characers to be alt skins for the character' statement, why? It not only pays tribute to past fighting games, but allows characters that are essentially the same to not be developed separately, clutter the roster screen, and ultimately adds a greater number of total represented characters a fan could play as. Those who love Daisy could get to play as her, even if she is only discussed as Peach. It adds to DLC, variance on screen, money to Nintendo... what is a single downside?

Then again, it is completely possible for them to provide the option of customizing the properties of the moves themselves. Take for example Mario's Shuriken Fireball. Perhaps you could alter its power or speed, or bounce height.

We saw the entire trajectory of Pits arrows not only change, but swirl. This is more extreme than changing strength or speed, more of a difference than the reflectors of each space animal captain (whatever the starfox characters are). It already provides more variation than the characters were.

 

[ACDC]

Snake, and pokemon trainer are so obvious at this point I'm not sure why people are still talking about them. Of course they are cut, but no one wants to say it in case they get proven wrong later. In my opinion not worth mentioning in this thread anymore. Now unto the real predictions. The ones I could actually be wrong about so I'll add a percentage as to how confident I feel about them leaving.

(100%) 1. ROB
As Samurai is trying to please players this time around, I could see R.O.B being cut the most. It seems he is trying to give each character a personality and feel over having original movesets such as link and toon link both being in. We must remember that it is a game first and foremost , Samurai will try to please casual players as well.

(90%) 2. IKE
Ike needs to go. His neutral b is broken and he might not be too high on the tier list, but for casuals he is overpowered. Besides it's now or never, if they dont cut him now it will be much harder to do so in the next super smash. There's not much else to say on him so moving on...

(65%) 3. WOLF
I don't see 3 starfox back in the next game considering how C.Falcon flies solo. Besides, Fox could easily absorb some of wolf's moves as they are similar animals and how they basically are in a ship in their games so it's not like Link who has obvious moves to pick from. This is why I believe wolf will get shot down.

(40%) 4. LUCAS
Lucas will probably be in the next game because of the number of people who like to use him and also because he gives a different spin off of Ness. But I could still see him leaving and wouldn't be surprised at all. Either way we will always have Ness who is better overall in most aspects which is why I believe that if he's back he will be given a buff and different moves but still keep his up B

(20%) 5. JIGGLYPUFF
Jigglypuff has been in the game for too long, but I don't see it going anywhere unless they find another pokemon to please the type of person that would be interested in that kind of character. Besides it's an original character with a great feel to it. I'm not a fan of her, but she adds diversity and a positive feeling to the game to us players who play since the first smash. She's like a cockroach

(5%) 6.FALCO
Falco will be back, but I feel like this list is incomplete without him. Besides He's the only question mark left. Everyone else will be back

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

DukeNapoleon, you're building on what I stated in the third part of your post. I just gave a different example. Customization wouldn't have to be limited to changing the speed or strength, for sure. I truly do get what you're saying.

Regarding your first paragraph, you seem to have missed this...

However, I can still see them being able to give Falco and Wolf customizable options along with Fox. Thanks to Starfox Assault there are tons of options in terms of projectile weapons. For example they could all get a Gatling Gun option but the way they fire it could differ depending on the character. They could do the same for Ness and Lucas; same options, but with slightly different properties depending on the character..

Regarding your second paragraph...for me, if I wanted to play as Daisy, then she needs to be represented as a different character. Not as an alternate costume. I wouldn't ever want to choose Peach and then have to change into Daisy. Different characters are different characters and different characters need different slots. Given that neither Peach or Daisy are counterparts (they've only been presented as/inferred to be this way in a few Mario spinoffs), opposite genders, or generic/customizable characters, I can't see one being an alternate costume as the other. I'll admit it would be kinda cool to have that but then again it would be plain, flat-out disappointing to just have alt characters without correspondingly alt movesets.

Also, what fighting games have done this whole alt character thing? I'll admit I am not very knowledgeable of other fighting games outside of Smash,so I'd like to see examples of how this has been done.

 

[Swift Fox]

I have weird theory about how many cuts there will be for SSB4.

Smash Bros and Mario Kart (For consoles beside SNES) have similar pattern of cuts.

Mario Kart 64: 0 (technically 1, DK jr. replaced by DK but that isn't quite significant anyway. Then again, SNES ASIDE!)
Smash Bros 64: 0
Double Dash: 0
Melee: 0
Mario Kart Wii: 4
Smash Bros Brawl: 5
Mario Kart 8: 7
Smash Bros 4: ?

Super Smash Bros 4 will probably have about 7 cuts.

Also let's look back at interview with Sakurai about cuts, he hates cutting anyone right? And he will do his best try to not cut anyone right? I thought about it for a second and starting to feel that it doesn't mean there are going to be less cuts but rather he simply wanted to apologize to those fans who had their favorite characters getting axed.

I'm starting to see that 6 cuts isn't out of possibility and it isn't even THAT pessimistic. If it was 7 then yes. 8 is kind of... cutting spree (Sakurai must have secretly cut happy all along).

Order from the most obvious cuts to the least obvious ones:
1. Squirtle
2. Ivysaur
3. Snake
--optimistic ends here--

With the obvious ones out of the way, I don't know who will get cut next and I will probably sound too biased but here we go...:
4. Star Fox 3rd rep (Falco or Wolf)
5. Mr. Game and Watch
6. R.O.B.
--cutting spree--
7. Lucas
8. Ike

EDIT: Oh and also I'd like to explain to you about why I picked Mr. Game & Watch and Falco in this list meanwhile Jigglypuff isn't.

In Mario Kart series the original 8 from 64 has been in all Mario Kart games for the consoles and even for the portables. The portable version tend to have less characters than consoles of their respective gens and the original 8 are still in every of them.

With that in mind, the original 12 of Smash Bros will likely be in every Super Smash Bros installments as well. That mean Jigglypuff is not getting axed as you think she might be because she's one of original 12.

The characters that introduced in Mario Kart: Double Dash then in Wii and those not making it to Mario 8 are:
-Birdo
-Bowser Jr.
-Diddy Kong
-King Boo.

Those four are two-time veterans who end up getting axed. The "two-time veteran" doesn't mean they are safe anymore until they are confirmed to be in SSB4 (And I guess "three-time" veterans will be safe as long as Mario Kart 10 can prove that). Be glad that I've only included two instead of three or four of two-time veterans out of possible 6 cuts list above.

Ice Climbers might be one with them as well but we've found evidence supporting his inclusion so I couldn't see them getting axed anytime soon.

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Haha, weird theory indeed. There's no way Smash cuts are based on Mario Kart cuts.

Regarding Mario Kart 8, I think they totally screwed up the roster. Or they made a concious choice to include/exclude certain characters for some reason. Maybe they decided that Diddy, Dry Bones, and Bowser Jr. needed a break? Maybe there were too many Koopas and Koopalings? I guess sometimes certain characters need to take some time out so people won't get too tired of them. Maybe that's why Birdo hasn't been playable character in most of the recent Mario games lately. I'm guessing the Koopalings probably won't make an appearance in the next Mario Kart...the've been appearing in all the latest New Super Mario Bros. games but that ought to stop sometimes soon, perhaps. Also, take note that the roster for Mario Kart 7 payed tribute to Super Mario Kart while adding new characters; that is why "expendable" characters like Waluigi were omitted for that one.

Smash, however, has not shown to make cuts or make additions in that sort of manner. However, the characters you listed as possibly being cut are ones that several others have guessed as being in danger. Not entirely unreasonable guesses but I'm quite sure Mr. G&W, R.O.B. and Ike will make a return. They need to freaking demote R.O.B. to Assist Trophy status though. Haha.

 

[Curious Villager]

I think the thing with the Mario Kart roster is that the characters are kinda reflective in terms of their weight and size class. Not 100% sure about it though.

As for Smash 4, the only characters I'm not 100% sure about are Squirtle, Ivysaur, Snake and I guess Ike, Lucas and Falco/Wolf. I hope to be wrong on a few of them at least...

 

[Jerry Applesauce]

Well in Mario Kart 8 there's a large amount of light characters, a medium amount of medium characters, and small amount of large characters. Haha. A part of me thinks they kind of wanted it like that. But if that's not the case then they totally could have thrown in Diddy and Bowser Jr. as medium characters. Heck, they could have thrown in Dixie, Cranky, and Funky as well. Might as well have thrown Petey and the Dark Moon iteration of King Boo in too. That would have made for a fuller roster for sure. Maybe it's a novelty thing. I don't know.

As for the roster, I hope to be wrong on Ike, Falco, Wolf, and Lucas too. Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Snake gotta go. I don't want Snake cut as much as I'd like the other two though. They ain't got nothing over Jigglypuff or Mewtwo.