Concerning the Issue of Characters Not Returning

[EbonyRubberWolf]

I don't understand why does the Mario theory holds so much relevance.

It's an unbroken and observable pattern in trying to predict the roster. Until it's invalidated, it's a fine tool for speculation.

 

[Luigi#1]

No franchise can have more character slots than Mario, nevermind the fact that Pokemon had more characters in Brawl and was planned to have even more than that.

The Mario theory refers Pokemon Trainer as one. Which they are in a way, as you are forced to change out multiple times unlike Shiek and others.
Also Dr.Mario was also planned.

 

[Speculator]

BUT HE WAS PLANNED AND NEARLY FINISHED

What do you not understand about that? Jiggs has a similar model to Kirby so that's half the work done right there

By no means was he nearly finished. He had half a tail model and a couple of inaccessible voice clips, which is pretty much exactly what you'd expect if they had just ported some data over from Melee. It's barely enough to suggest Mewtwo was even started, let alone nearly finished.

 

[FancysaurusRex]

At this point, I'm really unsure on character cuts. Here are my thoughts though:

: Almost definitely cut. I'm sorry, Ivy. I'll never forget the fun times we had

: Most likely cut. I know Kojima wants him in, and Sakurai has shown he's cool with Snake being in, but I would be surprised if Nintendo was. At this point, Snake has no relevant Nintendo appearances left, and could easily be seen as advertising for a rival console. I don't have high hopes for him at this point, even as DLC.

: Here's where it gets tricky. These four characters obviously have popularity going for them, seeing as how they're the most vehemently argued over, so it's hard to say. However, I'm not sure all four of these characters will be returning, for one major reason. Look at our newcomers so far. Barring and, who are from Nintendo's most popular franchises, and, which is from what is clearly Sakurai's favorite series, the roster has been neglecting characters like Ridley and K.Rool in favour new franchises. I get the feeling that Sakurai is focusing on series diversity (Which I must admit, I love) more than in previous titles, and we'll be seeking to cut down the smaller franchises. However, the main flaw in this theory is. In my opinion, if this were the case, Toon Link should have been the first character cut. He is, in my opinion, the biggest clone in the game, and the only one who is technically the same person as another character (Link is more of an amalgamation of all his incarnations). With Toon Link being confirmed, I think all four of these characters, for better or for worse, might just return.

: No clue. These two could really go in any way at this point. And since Hawlucha is extremely unlikely at this point, I'm cool with either or both being in!

: I don't care what anybody says. You'll never be cut from my heart.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

: Almost definitely cut. I'm sorry, Ivy. I'll never forget the fun times we had

Agreed.

: Most likely cut. I know Kojima wants him in, and Sakurai has shown he's cool with Snake being in, but I would be surprised if Nintendo was. At this point, Snake has no relevant Nintendo appearances left, and could easily be seen as advertising for a rival console. I don't have high hopes for him at this point, even as DLC.

Also agreed. Sakurai may pull a fast one, but I just don't see the math adding up for Snake.

: Here's where it gets tricky. These four characters obviously have popularity going for them, seeing as how they're the most vehemently argued over, so it's hard to say. However, I'm not sure all four of these characters will be returning, for one major reason. Look at our newcomers so far. Barring and, who are from Nintendo's most popular franchises, and, which is from what is clearly Sakurai's favorite series, the roster has been neglecting characters like Ridley and K.Rool in favour new franchises. I get the feeling that Sakurai is focusing on series diversity (Which I must admit, I love) more than in previous titles, and we'll be seeking to cut down the smaller franchises. However, the main flaw in this theory is. In my opinion, if this were the case, Toon Link should have been the first character cut. He is, in my opinion, the biggest clone in the game, and the only one who is technically the same person as another character (Link is more of an amalgamation of all his incarnations). With Toon Link being confirmed, I think all four of these characters, for better or for worse, might just return

I think three are coming back, namely Ness, Falco, and Wolf. Gematsu is pointing at Lucas's demise(admittedly with little conviction), and the math behind it makes 47 + Random work. Plus, cutting one character from an over-represented and frankly dead RPG series(MOTHER) for another Nintendo-exclusive up-and-coming RPG series(Xenoblade) seems to make sense by the logic you present.

: No clue. These two could really go in any way at this point. And since Hawlucha is extremely unlikely at this point, I'm cool with either or both being in!

Jiggly in, Mewtwo out. O12 and Mario Theory.

: I don't care what anybody says. You'll never be cut from my heart.

YES.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Yes, the Mario Theory (gods, that name churns my stomach) demonstrates a credible pattern in the rosters. Although several posters in this thread seem to be asserting it like it is definite. At least O12 is more straightforward to see than this Mario Theory.

The crutch on it is how it doesn't know what to do with Pokémon's Brawl count. It's either 4 if going by the character select as Pokémon Trainer or 6 if you count Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard separate (IMO that's more reasonable). If you determine the starting point from 64 and if you state that "But Brawl was an exception!" then your theory is all but false.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

Yes, the Mario Theory (gods, that name churns my stomach) demonstrates a credible pattern in the rosters. Although several posters in this thread seem to be asserting it like it is definite. At least O12 is more straightforward to see than this Mario Theory.

The crutch on it is how it doesn't know what to do with Pokémon's Brawl count. It's either 4 if going by the character select as Pokémon Trainer or 6 if you count Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Charizard separate (IMO that's more reasonable). If you determine the starting point from 64 and if you state that "But Brawl was an exception!" then your theory is all but false.

The Mario Theory basically looks at the CSS representation throughout the series. It disregards whether or not multi-characters are counted as multiple or not, and instead looks at the CSS slots afforded to each series. Mario is always the highest or tied for the highest.

As far as counting individual CSS slots, this line of thought is taken from the idea that transformation characters could not exist without the other(namely, Sheik could not exist without Zelda in Melee/Brawl, and PT could not exist without Charizard/Ivysaur/Squirtle). Therefore, the logic seems to dictate that they're single characters with larger movesets than normal.

 

[Weeman]

Honestly that theory is kinda stupid, i mean from the Sakurai perspective, where he counts characters regardless if they are transformations, he has already broken the rule.

And from a marketing perspective, as in the Nintendo guys pushing Sakurai to include more Mario characters and only looking at slots, this would remain untouched since DK, Yoshi and Wario would still count as characters from the Mario universe, even if they are supposed to be representing their own franchises they are still prominent characters in the Mario universe. So even if we had 6 Pokémon or Zelda characters, the roster would still have more characters that you can recognize from the Mario games and thus they would be satisfied.

Also i really don't think Sakurai would care, considering we ended up having 2 Fire Emblem characters before we had 2 Kirby or DK characters.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Another flaw with the theory; it assumes the notion that the Mario series is the rule against all other franchises. When going by Sakurai and counting each transformation as their own character(s), that contradicts the main point a la Pokémon Trainer.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

Honestly that theory is kinda stupid, i mean from the Sakurai perspective, where he counts characters regardless if they are transformations, he has already broken the rule.

And from a marketing perspective, as in the Nintendo guys pushing Sakurai to include more Mario characters and only looking at slots, this would remain untouched since DK, Yoshi and Wario would still count as characters from the Mario universe, even if they are supposed to be representing their own franchises they are still prominent characters in the Mario universe. So even if we had 6 Pokémon or Zelda characters, the roster would still have more characters that you can recognize from the Mario games and thus they would be satisfied.

Also i really don't think Sakurai would care, considering we ended up having 2 Fire Emblem characters before we had 2 Kirby or DK characters.

Another flaw with the theory; it assumes the notion that the Mario series is the rule against all other franchises. When going by Sakurai and counting each transformation as their own character(s), that contradicts the main point a la Pokémon Trainer.

Sakurai's words should not be taken to mean his actions. That way madness lies. DK, Yoshi, and Wario did spin-off from Mario, yes, but they are truly independent and their own franchises now(Wooly World, WarioWare, DKC returns). Remember, the Mario Theory doesn't care about whether or not multi-characters are considered independent characters or not(as in, can Sheik exist without Zelda, or Charizard/Ivysaur/Squirtle without the others). It only cares about CSS representation, and it's unbroken there.

 

[Curious Villager]

Honestly with this whole Mario vs other series representation thing. Now that transformations are no more, we really can't do much besides wait it out if it still holds any water and Sakurai really cares about these type of things. After all, this will be the first time since Smash 64 that all characters will now be shown individually from each other on the roster this time around.

That said, I wouldn't be that surprised if there actually was another Mario character waiting to be shown and is probably an unlockable character if Mewtwo and Jigglypuff are both set to return.... :/

Just my five cents.... :/

 

[Weeman]

Sakurai's words should not be taken to mean his actions. That way madness lies. DK, Yoshi, and Wario did spin-off from Mario, yes, but they are truly independent and their own franchises now(Wooly World, WarioWare, DKC returns). Remember, the Mario Theory doesn't care about whether or not multi-characters are considered independent characters or not(as in, can Sheik exist without Zelda, or Charizard/Ivysaur/Squirtle without the others). It only cares about CSS representation, and it's unbroken there.

But my point is that the theory simply doesn't make sense, because it would imply that either:


a) Sakurai thinks Mario deserves more characters that othe franchises, wich given his past ACTIONS, by having more playable characters on a franchise that wouldn't deserve them before another one (wich is what this theory implies), would mean that Sakurai has never cared for a franchise having priority, or serving as the line for another. And the fact that he spend develpoment time in making 5 Zelda characters and 6 Pokémon characters in Brawl over the 4 "Mario" ones, even if they are transfromations.


b) Nintendo pushes Sakurai to include more Mario characters. This one makes sense since it's only natural that franchises like Mario, Pokémon and Zelda get more representation than others, it also makes sense because they probably only care for slots since that's what people see. However my point is that from the perspective of the company and regular consumers, Mario would actually have 8 characters, since apart from the 5 we already have, DK, Wario and Yoshi are all recognizable Mario universe faces.

So in the end my point is that the "Mario theory" is nothing more than a coincidental pattern rather than a sacred rule that must be followed religiously and take away the chances for other characters.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

But my point is that the theory simply doesn't make sense, because it would imply that either:


a) Sakurai thinks Mario deserves more characters that othe franchises, wich given his past ACTIONS, by having more playable characters on a franchise that wouldn't deserve them before another one (wich is what this theory implies), would mean that Sakurai has never cared for a franchise having priority, or serving as the line for another. And the fact that he spend develpoment time in making 5 Zelda characters and 6 Pokémon characters in Brawl over the 4 "Mario" ones, even if they are transfromations.


b) Nintendo pushes Sakurai to include more Mario characters. This one makes sense since it's only natural that franchises like Mario, Pokémon and Zelda get more representation than others, it also makes sense because they probably only care for slots since that's what people see. However my point is that from the perspective of the company and regular consumers, Mario would actually have 8 characters, since apart from the 5 we already have, DK, Wario and Yoshi are all recognizable Mario universe faces.

So in the end my point is that the "Mario theory" is nothing more than a coincidental pattern rather than a sacred rule that must be followed religiously and take away the chances for other characters.

Well, I never said the Mario Theory is a hard and fast rule. It's just an observation that stemmed from prior CSS rosters. One that is as of yet unbroken.

Point A can be rebutted by the fact that Zelda and Sheik, until now, were unable to exist separately, nor could PT's pokemon(and in fact, PT himself wasn't even a character, literally just a background element that served to unite the trio!). So the idea could be that they were just considered singular characters that had expanded movesets and extra models.

Point B can work in conjunction with Point A. I strongly doubt though that people think of Yoshi, DK, and especially Wario as Mario spinoffs anymore. Yoshi's the weakest departure of the three, but Wooly World seems utterly devoid of Mario's presence, suggesting he's finally and fully split off. DK is very much its own series with no mention of Mario aside from the occasional cameo in Mario Party(and then what does that make Diddy Kong, a DK or Mario rep?), and Warioware is self-explanatory.

The Mario Theory only exists as a tool to aid speculation. I'm not saying Sakurai was limited by it. Rather, it is an aspect every CSS has in common, and there is no evidence that suggests it is going to be broken anytime soon.

 

[Weeman]

Well, I never said the Mario Theory is a hard and fast rule. It's just an observation that stemmed from prior CSS rosters. One that is as of yet unbroken.

Point A can be rebutted by the fact that Zelda and Sheik, until now, were unable to exist separately, nor could PT's pokemon(and in fact, PT himself wasn't even a character, literally just a background element that served to unite the trio!). So the idea could be that they were just considered singular characters that had expanded movesets and extra models.

Point B can work in conjunction with Point A. I strongly doubt though that people think of Yoshi, DK, and especially Wario as Mario spinoffs anymore. Yoshi's the weakest departure of the three, but Wooly World seems utterly devoid of Mario's presence, suggesting he's finally and fully split off. DK is very much its own series with no mention of Mario aside from the occasional cameo in Mario Party(and then what does that make Diddy Kong, a DK or Mario rep?), and Warioware is self-explanatory.

The Mario Theory only exists as a tool to aid speculation. I'm not saying Sakurai was limited by it. Rather, it is an aspect every CSS has in common, and there is no evidence that suggests it is going to be broken anytime soon.

I agree with this, it's just that you seem to assume that Mewtwo being or not in the game is decided solely by this theory alone, wich is what i find unlikely, that Sakurai would leave out a character that he wanted to have in the game, just because Pokémon would have one more slot than Mario in the roster. So my point is that if Mewtwo is not in, it means he simply was not intended from the beginning and would have nothing to do with patterns.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

I agree with this, it's just that you seem to assume that Mewtwo being or not in the game is decided solely by this theory alone, wich is what i find unlikely, that Sakurai would leave out a character that he wanted to have in the game, just because Pokémon would have one more slot than Mario in the roster. So my point is that if Mewtwo is not in, it means he simply was not intended from the beginning and would have nothing to do with patterns.

Well, it's not by itself, at least not for me. I believe strongly in Gematsu, O12, as well as 47 + Random. Each builds the other.

 

[L2 Sentinel]

Yes, it takes more assets to develop a 3-in-1 character than a solo character, but the resources spent on a character doesn't really matter in an argument over slots. Pokemon trainer was conceptualized and presented as a single character.

He was a package deal that counted as a single Pokemon rep, and I'm not just saying that because it took up only one space in the CSS. Remember when Brawl's roster was slowly being revealed? Zero Suit Samus was given full newcomer treatment, no different from Meta Knight, Wario, and Pit. Sheik and Zelda were revealed separately on Brawl's webpage. But Pokemon Trainer was handled as a single combatant, and always has been. The transformation gimmick was more integrated in PT than anyone else, since you are forced to change pokemon when one of them "faints." And they gave PT the fatigue penalty to try to ensure the player switches pokemon. It's clear they wanted to promote the idea that they were a team, completely dependent on each other. It almost makes more sense to compare them to the Ice Climbers than to Zelda/Sheik or Samus/ZSS. even though Popo and Nana operate identically and are literally interchangeable, because, again, the amount of effort put into a character doesn't matter in a debate of about slots. The character was conceptualized and presented as a single unit. One.

Obviously, they went a different route in Sm4sh, but that's irrelevant. We're talking about how many slots the Pokemon series took up in Brawl, so we can only examine how PT was treated up to that point, and at that time, PT was presented as one character.

 

[FancysaurusRex]

I also find it bizarre that the Mario theory is only taken in conjunction with the notion that we're only getting five Mario characters. If they're hiding Mewtwo, who's to say they're not also hiding another Mario rep? We all know there is no shortage of candidates from that franchise. I don't think the Mario theory is something we can reliably use to assume a character is or is not in.

 

[BossMewtwo]

If there was DLC and cut characters in SSB4, they should be DLC characters. I think that Roy will be DLC.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

I also find it bizarre that the Mario theory is only taken in conjunction with the notion that we're only getting five Mario characters. If they're hiding Mewtwo, who's to say they're not also hiding another Mario rep? We all know there is no shortage of candidates from that franchise. I don't think the Mario theory is something we can reliably use to assume a character is or is not in.

By itself, it doesn't tell much, you're right. Mario Theory primarily works for 47 + Random. 51 + Random might have room for Mewtwo, but then that assumes a sixth Mario rep is in the wings, and honestly who would fit that could match the sheer push Rosalina got? To add Mewtwo, there has to be another character added to Mario, according to the theory, and that only leaves two more spots for other characters(between what folk consider worthy, be it Ridley, K.Rool, Krystal, Bandanna Dee, etc.).

 

[Luigi#1]

By itself, it doesn't tell much, you're right. Mario Theory primarily works for 47 + Random. 51 + Random might have room for Mewtwo, but then that assumes a sixth Mario rep is in the wings, and honestly who would fit that could match the sheer push Rosalina got? To add Mewtwo, there has to be another character added to Mario, according to the theory, and that only leaves two more spots for other characters(between what folk consider worthy, be it Ridley, K.Rool, Krystal, Bandanna Dee, etc.).

Random button was in 1 game. It doesn't need to come back.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

Random button was in 1 game. It doesn't need to come back.

But... It was already in the demos.

 

[FancysaurusRex]

But... It was already in the demos.

Probably just a placeholder from Brawl. I mean, Random Button hasn't been relevant in a long time and is from Punctuation, which frankly hasn't had a new update in forever. Besides, there's far better characters, like Exclamation.

Not to mention Random is just a clone of every character in the game. Random Button has zero chance of returning, except maybe as an assist trophy.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

The random slot would be better off missing, honestly. Melee basically did this by selecting a new character when enabling a computer player.

 

[L2 Sentinel]

The random slot would be better off missing, honestly. Melee basically did this by selecting a new character when enabling a computer player.

The appeal of the random button is not being able to know who you got until the match actually starts, imo. It doesn't necessarily need to take up a slot on the CSS, though. It could be a tab on the side of the CSS or a button you can press on the controller.

 

[EbonyRubberWolf]

The random slot would be better off missing, honestly. Melee basically did this by selecting a new character when enabling a computer player.

That seems a little clunky, to be honest.

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Let me rephrase that. The CSS wouldn't be bad without it. I like using Random for the reasons above and for its general functionality. Like, every fighting game has a random fighter option selectable at the get-go. There's just different ways to do it if you need to trim for slot space.

 

[FirestormNeos]

Digging this back up after a month. Capt. Falcon has been confirmed and Gematsu Leak is dead.

Bets! Bets! Place yer bets! How many characters will make a return, and of course, whom?

Snake, Jiggs, Falco, Wolf, Meta Knight, R.O.B., Ice Climbers, Wario, Mr. G&W and both reps from the Mother series are all at risk!
Mewtwo and Roy still up for debate!
Ridley, Lip, Issac, and a swarm of other Nintendo characters still fighting for a chance at the roster!

Who will return? Who will get shafted? And will Waluigi finally make it in?

Spoiler

no, waluigi is not getting in.

 

[Swift Fox]

I will make a final bet once we know what character(s) was revealed at SDCC.

For now, I'm thinking Ivysaur, Squirtle, Snake, Lucas, Falco (depending on Lucas), and all Melee fallens not returning.

 

[FirestormNeos]

I will make a final bet once we know what character(s) was revealed at SDCC.

For now, I'm thinking Ivysaur, Squirtle, Snake, Lucas, Falco (depending on Lucas), and all Melee fallens not returning.

All two of them. Yea, I don't even bother counting Dr. Mario and Pichu. They're clones that need to stay dead.

 

[Kevandre]

It would be a waste if DLCs were mostly cut veterans. Most of them (Roy, Pichu, Dr. Mario) are just boring clones. Mewtwo should be in the game without the need for DLC. I can't speak about Brawl cuts, since we don't know about any of them yet (aside from Pokémon Trainer and presumably Ivysaur and Squirtle). No idea why people are believing this 47 characters roster, btw.

(I wish Smashboards had a dislike button)

 

[Reila]

(I wish Smashboards had a dislike button)

There is something called ignore list, though. If my post bothers you so much, do yourself a favor and ignore me.

I will make a final bet once we know what character(s) was revealed at SDCC.

For now, I'm thinking Ivysaur, Squirtle, Snake, Lucas, Falco (depending on Lucas), and all Melee fallens not returning.

Imagine the meltdowns if Falco and Lucas are cut (mainly Falco), when there is a brand new clone (Lucina) in the game.

 

[Morbi]

Digging this back up after a month. Capt. Falcon has been confirmed and Gematsu Leak is dead.

Bets! Bets! Place yer bets! How many characters will make a return, and of course, whom?

Snake, Jiggs, Falco, Wolf, Meta Knight, R.O.B., Ice Climbers, Wario, Mr. G&W and both reps from the Mother series are all at risk!
Mewtwo and Roy still up for debate!
Ridley, Lip, Issac, and a swarm of other Nintendo characters still fighting for a chance at the roster!

Who will return? Who will get shafted? And will Waluigi finally make it in?

Spoiler

no, waluigi is not getting in.

I suppose my thoughts are the same as they have been for months upon months. No Squirtle, no Ivysaur, no Snake, and I am still (for the most part) half and half on Lucas; I am leaning on his return. After that, I presume that we will get at least 3 more "newcomers" (Ridley, Ghirahim or Impa, and Mewtwo). After that, perhaps a couple of semi-clones (Pittoo and Dr. Mario seem feasible). I am still holding out for Black Shadow.

(I wish Smashboards had a dislike button)

#shotsfired

 

[GunGunW]

I don't want anyone to get cut especially since it will make people unhappy. But...

seem like the only real candidates for it.

to a lesser extent.

I think are pretty much safe... hopefully.

Yeah, he's coming back.

 

[FirestormNeos]

I don't want anyone to get cut especially since it will make people unhappy. But...

seem like the only real candidates for it.

to a lesser extent.

I think are pretty much safe... hopefully.

Yeah, he's coming back.

I agree with most of this, except for two things:
1. swap Ice Climbers for Meta Knight.
2. One Star Fox Rep and One Earthbound Rep are going to be cut. It's only a matter of whom.

 

[GunGunW]

I agree with most of this, only swap Ice Climbers for Meta Knight.

Actually... that's probably more accurate.

 

[FirestormNeos]

Actually... that's probably more accurate.

Sorry for ing you.

 

[GunGunW]

Sorry for ing you.

I don't really understand what that means.

 

[Metallaeus]

I hope nobody gets cut. I mean, I'm fine with Jiggly getting cut, but then everyone would shoot Nintendo with cannons, so yeah. I really don't see anybody getting the boot this time around though.
(i forgot about pokemon trainer, whoops, so i guess ivysaur and squirtle are getting cut this time around)

 

[Bedoop]

Can I just say something?
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALUIGI.
Will probably never be playable. *sad face*

 

[Kay kay]

why is sonic returning...

OK, since he's back, I hope they change him up majorly.

In terms of move set, and even alt costumes, because different shades of blue and silver aren't really amusing.

And I never really understood Jigglypuff hype, I wouldn't mind her being cut at all. I'm probably going to get hate, but tbh, Jigglypuff was one of my least favorites in brawl.

I also wouldn't mind Rob being cut, he's way too heavy.

Etc= to lazy to type the rest DX