Will Melee be a official eSport soon?

[DeadBeef]

I have played melee for 10 years now and I find it to be more difficult than other games but in a fun way. The melee scene has grown so much every year. Nintendo is now starting to support competitive smash, but not like other competitive game developers. Nintendo has not been the greatest with changes in how game companies market via YouTube, community projects, and tournaments. Will melee and smash in general get to the point where games like COD, CSGO, DOTA are now? do you see this year being the year of smash? Will Project M stay alive? will eSport finally get there own tv station, and smash be on the station? Or is smash stuck with the community and moderate size tournaments compared to LOL? I relay want competitive smash to grow (since I have brought so many friends in and showed them what the community is) but I feel that Nintendo will screw it up some how

What are your thoughts?

Thanks,
DeadBeef

 

[GenNyan]

Well, "official eSport" isn't really a thing. So uh, I don't really know what you mean by that.

Also I doubt Melee will be as big as the MOBAs.

 

[DeadBeef]

Well, "official eSport" isn't really a thing. So uh, I don't really know what you mean by that.

Also I doubt Melee will be as big as the MOBAs.

do not expect any game to compete against the large MOBA group it as just a example. What i mean is that do you think melee and other smash games will grow to the point were more sponsorship will join in, causing lager pots?i because compared to other games melee is way lower and for a game that is so intricate, melee deserves so much more. Now what about a melee world championships? will Nintendo ever sponsor this? or is Nintendo just going to keep getting in the way?

 

[EPsilon933]

Spoiler: A growth analysis done by a brainless casual

I am not an analyst. This is not an expert analysis. I just did a noob analysis of the growth of competitive fighting gaming just for fun and a learning experience to measure how much the competitive scene is growing. The only tool I used was Windows Calculator. I didn’t not proofread the written interpretation because I’m tired

The Raw Numbers and % growth interpretations

EVO 2011 & *Pound* 5 vs EVO 2012 & Apex 2012, tournament entrants and growth rates

EVO 2011 & *Pound* 5
Melee = 243
Marvel 3 = 1,072
Street Fighter 4 = 1,456
Average = 924

EVO 2012 & Apex 2012
Melee = 318 \ +30.9%
Marvel 3 = 1,248 \ +16.4%
Street Fighter 4 = 1,520 \ +4.4%
Average = 1,029 \ +11.4%

EVO 2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 growth rates, tournament entrants and growth rates

Tournament entrants

EVO 2013
Melee = 696 \ +118.9%
Marvel 3 = 1,297 \ +3.9%
Street Fighter 4 = 1,601 \ +5.3%
Average = 1,198 \ +16.4%

EVO 2014
Melee = 970 \ +39.4%
Marvel 3 = 1,014 \ -21.8%
Street Fighter 4 = 1,979 \ +23.6%
Average = 1,321 \ +10.3%

EVO 2015
Melee = 1,869 \ +92.7%
Marvel 3 = 816 \ -19.5%
Street Fighter 4 = 2,227 \ +12.5%
Average = 1,637 \ +23.9%

2011 - 2015 Average growth rates per year

The percentages represent exponential curves of best fit growth. I can’t make a line of best fit
Melee = +70.5%
Marvel 3 = -5.3%
Street Fighter 4 = +11.5%
Average = +25.6%

Tournament Peak Viewer counts and growth rates

EVO 2013
Melee = 134,000
Marvel 3 = 144,848
Street Fighter 4 = 125,000
Average = 134,616

EVO 2014
Melee = 127,800 \ +2.8%
Marvel 3 = 144,848 \ +3.2%
Street Fighter 4 = 130,396 \ +4.3%
Average = 139,222 \ +3.9%

EVO 2015
Melee = 211,393 \ +53.4%
Marvel 3 = 177,057 \ +18.5%
Street Fighter 4 = 248,864 \ +90.7%
Average = 216,864 \ +55.8%

SRKEVO1’s twitch follower & viewer growth rates

EVO 2014
Gained followers | gained channel views
12,750 | 1,080,000
11,170 | 1,900,000
10,770 | 2,240,000
Total = 34,690 | 5,220,000

EVO 2015
Gained followers | gained channel views
July 17 = 15,304 | 949,025
July 18 = 13,284 | 1,026,778
July 19 = 15,698 | 1,739,324
Total = 44,286 | 3,715,127

EVO 2014 vs EVO 2015
34,690 vs 44,286 (+27.7%)
5,220,000 vs 3,715,127 (-28.8%)

The written interpretations

Melee is growing as a competitive game at an absurdly fast rate among fighting games. On average, every year, tournament attendance increases at its largest yearly event by 70.5%. The other biggest FG (Fighting game), while still ahead, won’t be in the lead for another year. If both games follow the expontential curve of best fit perfectly, Melee at EVO should reach 3,187 entrants and Street Fighter 5 would reach 2,797. But because this wasn’t calculated from an experiment, there are loads of confounding variables affecting everything. Melee beginning to be included at EVO in 2013, The Melee documentary being released, and Smash 4’s release have probably been the biggest boosts to the scene’s tournament going popularity. Street Fighter’s confounding variables are Ultra Street Fighter 4’s release and Street Fighter 5’s announcement which help that game attract new players. Marvel 3’s main confounding variable is Capcom’s contract ending with Marvel, preventing them from selling more copies of the game. Ever since it ended, December 2013, its popularity saw a significant decline. If it follows the exponential curve perfectly, it should reach 773 entrants at EVO next year. Don’t consider my predictions very reliable because I’m a total noob at analysis and this was just for fun

I wanted to include as much data as I could for this analysis and I wasn’t sure which Melee tournaments to consider for the years 2011 and 2012. I could have used GENESIS 2’s and MELEE-FC Legacy’s numbers since they’re both Summer nationals like EVO. I ended up choosing *Pound* 5’s and Apex 2012’s tournament entry numbers since they were the biggest of their years. Apex is still an active tournament series that happens during Q1 of every year. Changes in season’s might affect who’s able/unable to go to these events

Last year, EVO was watched by more individual viewers, but more viewers followed it this year. Peak viewership was also higher for the 3 main FGs, as well as for BlazBlue Chrono Phantasma / Guilty Gear Xrd –SIGN- and Killer Instinct 3 / Mortal Kombat X, which suggest a lot more viewer retention. I don’t have the official channel analyses nor data to measure exactly what the average retention was in terms of minutes watched per viewer

Twitch emailed me a message about 4 esports events happening that weekend. This might explain some of the lower view count yet higher retention. Players who prefer CSGO (Counter Strike Global Offensive), SC2 (Starcraft 2), or HOTS (Heroes Of The Storm) could have clicked any of those 3 and never returned to the email to also check out EVO. It filtered out the less interested viewers of the FG genre. I’m not certain about what explains why viewers stayed longer and caused more of them to follow SRKEVO1. It could be the influx of new games that refreshed a lot of FG fans’ interest in the series/genre and (re)introduced them to competitive gaming. Mortal Kombat X and Smash 4 launched and Street Fighter 5 was announced less than a Year before EVO this year. Going from EVO 2013 – 2014, average main game peak viewership only increased by 3.9% on average. The only major release/announcement between EVO 2013 and 2014 was Ultra Street Fighter 4’s launch. Game upgrades don’t generate as much hype as entirely new games. A lot of players even rant online against this practice. The growth explanation is just an untested/uneducated theory

I’m not sure if/when Melee or Street Fighter can reach esports status. Right now, I don’t think it can reach the status of LOL, DOTA2, CSGO, nor COD. Those games have everything going for them right now and the numbers are absurdly good. Just look at the current king, LOL. That game has 27,000,000 players online daily and 67,000,000 online monthly. Throughout Smash’s history, it has only sold 30,000,000 copies. Nowhere close to every buyer is as active as they are. But with Melee’s growth, it might reach a tier below that, maybe. Its growth hasn’t hit any walls yet so it’s difficult to predict where its popularity will peak. Street Fighter is also likely to keep growing, just nowhere near as quickly. Predicting big future changes aren’t easy

Raw uncompressed numbers and sources, not tailored for readable format, below

These numbers were calculated and pulled from from
http://socialblade.com/twitch/user/srkevo1
http://www.ssbwiki.com/Apex_2013
http://www.ssbwiki.com/Apex_2014
http://www.ssbwiki.com/Apex_2015
http://smashboards.com/threads/official-genesis-2-results-thread.307610/
http://smashboards.com/threads/melee-fc-legacy-results.326650/
http://smashboards.com/threads/evo-historical-entry-counts.408575/
http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2013/...rvel-vs-capcom-3-tournament-smash-had-134000/
http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2015/...15s-main-stage-during-grand-finals-collected/
http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2014/...ost-watched-evo-2014-ranking-viewership-game/
http://shoryuken.com/2014/07/01/evo...r-iv-leads-the-pack-with-nearly-2000-players/
http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2015/...ut-water-ceo-2015-see-numbers-all-games-here/
http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2014/...2014-check-out-entrance-numbers-years-lineup/
http://testyourmight.com/threads/ceo-final-pre-registration-numbers-for-each-game.34729/
http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/01/29/league-of-legends-now-has-27-million-players-daily
I think I added every link. I think

2013 vs 2014 vs 2015, viewers & entrants by game(s)

Game
2013 \ 2014 \ 2015 (Peak online viewer count)
2013 \ 2014 \ 2015 (Tournament entrants)

Super Smash Brothers Melee
134,000 \ 137,800 \ 211,393
696 \ 970 \ 1,869

Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
144,848 \ 149,470 \ 177,057
1,297 \ 1,014 \ 816

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition v2012 / Ultra Street Fighter 4
125,000 \ 130,396 \ 248,663
1,601 \ 1,979 \ 2,227

Average for the main games
134,616 \ 139,222 \ 216,864
1,198 \ 1,321 \ 1,637

Average
? vs 117,409 vs 191,797
922 vs 962 vs 1408

Growth rates

Game / Game / Game
viewership increase, 2013 vs 2014, 2014 vs 2015, 2013 vs 2015
Participant increase, 2013 vs 2014, 2014 vs 2015, 2013 vs 2015

The King Of Fighters 13 / BlazeBlue Chrono Phantasma / Guilty Gear Xrd –SIGN-
?%, +62.4%, ?%
+17.3%, +90.6%, +123.6%

Injustice Gods Among Us / Killer Instinct 3 / Mortal Kombat X
?%, +115.3%, ?%
-41.9%, +243.8%, +99.7%

Super Smash Brothers Melee
+2.8%, +53.4%, +57.8%
+39.4%, +92.7%, +168.5%

Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
+3.2%, +18.5%, +22.2%
-21.8%, -19.5%, -37.1%

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition v2012 / Ultra Street Fighter 4
+4.3%, +90.7%, +98.8%
+23.6%, +12.5%, +39.1%

Average
+?%, +63.4%, +?%
+4.3%, +84.02%, +52.7%

Average for the 3 static games
+3.9%, +55.8%, +61.1%
+10.3%, +23.9%, +36.6%

SRKEVO1’s twitch follower & viewer growth rates

http://www.twitch.tv/SRKEVO1

EVO 2013
No data is publicly available for July 2013 on Socialblade

EVO 2014
Gained followers | gained channel views
12,750 | 1,080,000
11,170 | 1,900,000
10,770 | 2,240,000
Total = 34,690 | 5,220,000

EVO 2015
Gained followers | gained channel views
July 17 = 15,304 | 949,025
July 18 = 13,284 | 1,026,778
July 19 = 15,698 | 1,739,324
Total = 44,286 | 3,715,127

EVO 2014 vs EVO 2015
34,690 vs 44,286 (+27.7%)
5,220,000 vs 3,715,127 (-28.8%)

Other esports that happened on Twitch during EVO 2015
DreamHack Valencia 2015
IEM Shenzhen
Heroes of the Storm North America July Open
(EVO 2015 was at the top of the list)
(EVO also had its own email sent to twitch users)

Other esports that happened on Twitch during EVO 2014 and 2013
I don’t even know of a good way to search for this information. I might be too tired to

EVO 2011 vs 2012

Game / Game
Entrants

[EVO 2011 didn’t have a 6th game on day 3 stream] / Street Fighter X Tekken
? vs 448 teams (896 entrants)

BlazBlue Continuum Shift 2 / The King Of Fighters 13
208 vs 1,072

Tekken 6 / Soul Calibur 5
724 vs 416

Mortal Kombat 9
512 vs 304

Marvel Vs Capcom 3 / Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
1,072 vs 1,248

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition / Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition v2012
1,456 vs 1,520

Smash’s Summer tournaments in 2011 & 2012 (GENESIS 2 & MELEE-FC Legacy)

Super Smash Brothers Melee
228 vs 146

Super Smash Brothers Brawl
197 vs 4

Smash 64
22 vs 18

Project M
? vs 106

Smash’s Winter tournaments in 2011 & 2012 (*Pound* 5 & Apex 2012)

Super Smash Brothers Melee
243 vs 318

Super Smash Brothers Brawl
151 vs 400

Smash 64
? vs 64

Apex has never been a big event for the FGC (yet. These numbers might be worth

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition v2012
? vs 96

Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
? vs 128

Apex 2013 vs 2014 vs 2015

Super Smash Brothers Melee
336 vs 629 vs 1037

Super Smash Brothers Brawl
338 vs 370 vs 176

Super Smash Brothers 4 Wii U
? vs ? vs 837

Smash 64
96 vs 157 vs 188

Project M
? vs 382 vs ?

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition version 2012 / Ultra Street Fighter 4
? vs 100 vs 139

Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
? vs 85 vs 51

CEO 2013 vs 2014 vs 2015

Super Smash Bros Melee
? vs 262 vs 466

Super Street Fighter 4 Arcade Edition version 2012 / Ultra Street Fighter 4
225 vs 391 vs 375

Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom 3
243 vs 236 vs 117

Super Smash Brothers 4 Wii U
vs ? vs ? vs 512

Project M
? vs 255 vs ?

It might be worth mentioning that Smash 4 Wii U pulled in 1926 entrants. It wasn’t streamed on day 3, which is why it was discarded from the main analysis. It’s too big of a number to ignore

Melee's growth rate is really good

It won't match the esport popularity of COD, CGSO, DOTA2, and LOL because those games have everything going for them; developer support, FTP or yearly releases to keep pulling in new players, new copies get made regularly or are on sale for download, super big events get hosted for them that are bigger than EVO (nationals/worlds are played in giant stadiums)

 

[GenNyan]

do not expect any game to compete against the large MOBA group it as just a example. What i mean is that do you think melee and other smash games will grow to the point were more sponsorship will join in, causing lager pots?i because compared to other games melee is way lower and for a game that is so intricate, melee deserves so much more. Now what about a melee world championships? will Nintendo ever sponsor this? or is Nintendo just going to keep getting in the way?

Do I think it will ever have more sponsors? Sure. It'll keep growing, for a little while at least. You mention this "point where more sponsorship will join in," but its not like advertisers just decide all at once, "Ey everyone lets all pour millions of dollars into smash!" Its a gradual thing and has been happening for years. My guess is that it'll eventually level out, being as fighting games aren't that popular compared to other genres.

Melee basically already has world championships, its just a rose by any other name. And honestly most people could care less if Nintendo sponsored Melee.

 

[DeadBeef]

Melee basically already has world championships, its just a rose by any other name. And honestly most people could care less if Nintendo sponsored Melee.

But if Nintendo decides we can not use community project they find a way to remove them. Is Nintendo just going to turn their back or actually help us? Will they just get in the way of our community ?

 

[ECHOnce]

But if Nintendo decides we can not use community project they find a way to remove them. Is Nintendo just going to turn their back or actually help us? Will they just get in the way of our community ?

Melee isn't really touchable as far as I can tell. Only thing they can do to hurt us at this point is to continue not offering support, or offer support with icky circumstances (splits the scene on views, the usual).

 

[DeadBeef]

Melee isn't really touchable as far as I can tell. Only thing they can do to hurt us at this point is to continue not offering support, or offer support with icky circumstances (splits the scene on views, the usual).

Well what they did with youtube nintendo tax as stupid and if they keep that up it will be hard for professionals and tournament streams to make a business, i hope they will fix this soon.

 

[Uchihadark7]

It's hard to say. Melee is on the bandwagon right now, and it's only been popular since 2014. I think it's too soon to say whether we'll get more sponsors and be a bigger eSport. Because the sponsors we have right now could just abandon their melee players if Melee dies down again.

 

[Diosama]

Is it not already an official esport? I mean, we've had sponsored players for a while now

 

[Arcturian]

The whole eSports commentary thing is to become more marketable and not scare away sponsors. I'd say the amount of money involved and the fact that so many players are becoming sponsored means that it's been official for quite a while. That and altering behavior and commentary to "appeal to the masses".