Some people are saying that Ness has no chance of being in Brawl. I don't think this is true and am going to take a look at some of the evidence and arguements on both sides.
Common arguments against Ness
Lucas Special Moves Update
"There’s a character named Ness who has appeared in the Smash Bros. series up until now, and Lucas is very similar. They are from the same family of PK users."
A lot of people have taken this sentence to be the end all deconfirmation of Ness. I don't think it is. The main reason is that Ness hasn't appeared in Brawl, because he hasn't been announced. They aren't going to spoil another character in Lucas' update, but they need to mention Ness, so we get this little bit that acknowledges Ness was in SSB+Melee, but leaves his status in Brawl a mystery.
He would be too similar to Lucas.
The status of clones is up in the air as for Brawl. Those who say Brawl won't have clones say that since Lucas has Ness' moveset, Ness doesn't have a place.
Well, Sakurai sorta shoots this one down right after that: "But Lucas’s physical combat style is quite different. By which I mean, he does not have the same standard moves." That alone makes Lucas dissimilar from Ness more than any of the Melee clones were.
Evidence in support of Ness
Franklin Badge
Revealed before Lucas was announced, the Franklin Badge also appears in Mother 3, but it got its start as an important item in Earthbound, Paula gave it to Ness to aid in the battle against Carpainter.
Lucas is cloneish
Lucas' special moves are fundamentally Ness' specials. But they all differ enough to give him a different playstyle. In Melee, Dr. Mario was a slower, more powerful Mario, with slightly different specials. This is true of Lucas:
B: Ness' PK Flash was slow but powerful, Lucas' move is PK Freeze, which has a freezie effect.
Forward+B: Ness' PK Fire goes at a downward angle while Lucas' goes straight.
Down+B: Ness shields all around him. Lucas shields in the direction he is facing.
Lucas' update goes so far to show that he is different from Ness, that it definitely leaves room for Ness.
Additionally, two of Ness' signature physical moves, the Bat and the Yoyo are not a part of Lucas' arsenal.
Onett
Onett is Ness' level from SSBM. There is no Onett in Mother 3, and all the details from Earthbound, such as the meteorite that Ness investigates return. If you still don't think this level's connection to one and only one character is enough, I would argue that if Ness is not going to be a playable character, why wouldn't he be added in the background somewhere? The level has been demoed quite enough to observe that Ness isn't in it. I suppose there's the possibility of him being an AT, but Ness doesn't really have any moves that would make an interesting AT.
Final Observations
The Dojo is a promotional website - New characters promote the game much better than old ones.
The sole job of dojo is to generate hype and interest about Brawl. New characters do that. If Ness had been unveiled at Spaceworld, no one would have given it a second thought. Even if Ness were unveiled on Dojo tomorrow, it wouldn't generate any buzz outside of the Smash Bros community, who are pretty much already excited about the game. Returning characters to Smash Bros are like the pause screen, not very exciting, but important to the game.
Ness has been a hidden character since the very first Smash Bros game. And just like Jigglypuff, Luigi and Captain Falcon, he hasn't been announced and probably won't be until Japan gets the game on the 31st. However you'd have to be insane to argue against those three (especially Falcon given Red Alloy + Samurai Goroh), so give it a second thought before dismissing Ness entirely.
Common arguments against Ness
Lucas Special Moves Update
"There’s a character named Ness who has appeared in the Smash Bros. series up until now, and Lucas is very similar. They are from the same family of PK users."
A lot of people have taken this sentence to be the end all deconfirmation of Ness. I don't think it is. The main reason is that Ness hasn't appeared in Brawl, because he hasn't been announced. They aren't going to spoil another character in Lucas' update, but they need to mention Ness, so we get this little bit that acknowledges Ness was in SSB+Melee, but leaves his status in Brawl a mystery.
He would be too similar to Lucas.
The status of clones is up in the air as for Brawl. Those who say Brawl won't have clones say that since Lucas has Ness' moveset, Ness doesn't have a place.
Well, Sakurai sorta shoots this one down right after that: "But Lucas’s physical combat style is quite different. By which I mean, he does not have the same standard moves." That alone makes Lucas dissimilar from Ness more than any of the Melee clones were.
Evidence in support of Ness
Franklin Badge
Revealed before Lucas was announced, the Franklin Badge also appears in Mother 3, but it got its start as an important item in Earthbound, Paula gave it to Ness to aid in the battle against Carpainter.
Lucas is cloneish
Lucas' special moves are fundamentally Ness' specials. But they all differ enough to give him a different playstyle. In Melee, Dr. Mario was a slower, more powerful Mario, with slightly different specials. This is true of Lucas:
B: Ness' PK Flash was slow but powerful, Lucas' move is PK Freeze, which has a freezie effect.
Forward+B: Ness' PK Fire goes at a downward angle while Lucas' goes straight.
Down+B: Ness shields all around him. Lucas shields in the direction he is facing.
Lucas' update goes so far to show that he is different from Ness, that it definitely leaves room for Ness.
Additionally, two of Ness' signature physical moves, the Bat and the Yoyo are not a part of Lucas' arsenal.
Onett
Onett is Ness' level from SSBM. There is no Onett in Mother 3, and all the details from Earthbound, such as the meteorite that Ness investigates return. If you still don't think this level's connection to one and only one character is enough, I would argue that if Ness is not going to be a playable character, why wouldn't he be added in the background somewhere? The level has been demoed quite enough to observe that Ness isn't in it. I suppose there's the possibility of him being an AT, but Ness doesn't really have any moves that would make an interesting AT.
Final Observations
The Dojo is a promotional website - New characters promote the game much better than old ones.
The sole job of dojo is to generate hype and interest about Brawl. New characters do that. If Ness had been unveiled at Spaceworld, no one would have given it a second thought. Even if Ness were unveiled on Dojo tomorrow, it wouldn't generate any buzz outside of the Smash Bros community, who are pretty much already excited about the game. Returning characters to Smash Bros are like the pause screen, not very exciting, but important to the game.
Ness has been a hidden character since the very first Smash Bros game. And just like Jigglypuff, Luigi and Captain Falcon, he hasn't been announced and probably won't be until Japan gets the game on the 31st. However you'd have to be insane to argue against those three (especially Falcon given Red Alloy + Samurai Goroh), so give it a second thought before dismissing Ness entirely.
