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Who Do Robots Think Will Be on the SSB4 Roster?

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
I'd post this in character speculation, except this isn't a series attempt at figuring out who will be on the roster. I have given up thinking anything I do can actually predict Sakurai. No, this is a call to all programmers. Are you a software engineer by trade (like myself)? Or have you written a single line of Java code in your life? Doesn't matter both are welcome here.

Your task should you chose to accept it is to write a program that guesses the roster for ssb4. There are two stipulations.

1. Don't write a program where you know in advance what the output will be (What is the fun in that?)
2. Don't use random numbers or hash functions. Randomness can be fun for a time, but isn't it much more interesting when we really have no idea why it picked character a over character b?

Hopefully we have some people who know how to code on this site, and who like to screw around with challenges like this that aren't apt to produce any meaningful results. For those of you who do know a little bit about coding but have no idea how to achieve the above, wiki nearest neighbor and machine learning in general. I assure you there are some techniques that aren't terribly difficult... mind you I'm pretty sure of the require some finagling to actually fit the problem being asked, but get creative! And remember this is for fun. The algorithm doesn't have to make that much sense. Shoot if your program goes off of the number of letters in the name, I'm okay with that. Slightly more realistic ones would be more appreciated it, as I think they'd be funnier.

There is no time limit on this. If no one else participates I still will so tune in later for my results. I already have the program written, now its time for the hard part. Actually collecting data to feed into the darn thing. Personally I'm opting to feed in data points that I think are relevant and ones I don't think are alike, because who knows what actually matters, and there again I think it is pretty hopeless to predict Sakurai.
 

PlayerXIII

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
209
NNID
ShailsPT
3DS FC
3652-1682-9410
Count me in. I only have basic C++ knowledge but I should get at least something crappy going.
 

DakotaBonez

The Depraved Optimist
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
2,549
Location
San Marcos, Texas
Time to exploit my expertise in powerpoint and tap into my inner Sakurai.

Here's a Screenshot


THIS IS NOT A MOVIE OR JUST ANY SLIDESHOW, YOU WILL HAVE TO INTERACT WITH THE SCREEN
Check it out Here! http://www.powershow.com/view/3ea28...Roster_Prediction_powerpoint_ppt_presentation

You can watch it on that page in a youtube like window, but it will take forever to load, the image quality will suck, and some sounds will be broken...but its functional! If you choose to watch it like this make sure to watch it in FULLSCREEN. I highly recommend that you select the Yellow Download Button that is below the powerpoint player window, its a very small filesize that will download much quicker (much much much quicker) than the time it takes the video to load in the powerpoint player window, plus you can see it in full quality and with all of the sounds intact.
 

PlayerXIII

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
209
NNID
ShailsPT
3DS FC
3652-1682-9410
I already got a plan of how I will have the program decide the roster. Now I only have to get working on it. Probably tomorrow.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
I already got a plan of how I will have the program decide the roster. Now I only have to get working on it. Probably tomorrow.
That's what I like to hear. It'll probably take me about a week, just because collecting character data is tedious.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Out of curiosity, what constitutes as character data and where, might I ask, are you obtaining it? :3
Pretty much any information about a character I can think of that a robot might find relevant. It includes things like sales figures, number of games in the franchise, how many this character made an appearance in etc. And hence why it will take a while, as I'm not obtaining it from any one place. I'm pretty much at the mercy of browsing the web. I pretty much plan on doing this with every character who has been in a game so far and as many as seem to have even a remote chance, as I can motivate myself to do.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Does google count as a program :)
Why of course n... uh... actually.... Any process whereby you don't know the result before hand I think is acceptable. So if you're really willing to do enough googling to not know who comes out on top... then I suppose that works. Programs just make the process easier as you don't have to do the process yourself.
 

PlayerXIII

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
209
NNID
ShailsPT
3DS FC
3652-1682-9410
Pretty much any information about a character I can think of that a robot might find relevant. It includes things like sales figures, number of games in the franchise, how many this character made an appearance in etc. And hence why it will take a while, as I'm not obtaining it from any one place. I'm pretty much at the mercy of browsing the web. I pretty much plan on doing this with every character who has been in a game so far and as many as seem to have even a remote chance, as I can motivate myself to do.

Indeed. After my post yesterday it struck me how many characters I had to do and got to work instantly before the actual coding.

EDIT: So I currrently have these guys as possible newcomers: Ridley, K.Rool, Little Mac, Mii, Pacman, Bowser Jr., Midna, Skull Kid, Krystal, Palutena, Shulk, Chrom and Majora's Young Link. Any more characters I should add? I have a feel I am forgetting some that I really shouldn't be forgetting...
 

Zzuxon

Smash Champion
Joined
Mar 19, 2011
Messages
2,559
Location
U.S.A
NNID
zzuxon
3DS FC
3695-0453-0481
Indeed. After my post yesterday it struck me how many characters I had to do and got to work instantly before the actual coding.

EDIT: So I currrently have these guys as possible newcomers: Ridley, K.Rool, Little Mac, Mii, Pacman, Bowser Jr., Midna, Skull Kid, Krystal, Palutena, Shulk, Chrom and Majora's Young Link. Any more characters I should add? I have a feel I am forgetting some that I really shouldn't be forgetting...
Toad, Tingle, Isaac, Ray, there are a lot more.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
There are definitely a few that I have my doubts about that I still think should be on such a list:
-Zoroark
-Paper Mario
-Isaac
-Waluigi
-Dixie Kong
-Ghirahim
-Demise
-Lyn
-Rayman
-Black Shadow
-Toad
-Vaati
-Bandana Dee
-Geno
-Dillon

I really doubt the chances of most of those, but who knows a Robot's mind.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Time to exploit my expertise in powerpoint and tap into my inner Sakurai.

Here's a Screenshot


THIS IS NOT A MOVIE OR JUST ANY SLIDESHOW, YOU WILL HAVE TO INTERACT WITH THE SCREEN
Check it out Here! http://www.powershow.com/view/3ea28...Roster_Prediction_powerpoint_ppt_presentation

You can watch it on that page in a youtube like window, but it will take forever to load, the image quality will suck, and some sounds will be broken...but its functional! If you choose to watch it like this make sure to watch it in FULLSCREEN. I highly recommend that you select the Yellow Download Button that is below the powerpoint player window, its a very small filesize that will download much quicker (much much much quicker) than the time it takes the video to load in the powerpoint player window, plus you can see it in full quality and with all of the sounds intact.
At first I was like, you didn't have to go through so much trouble just to... and then I LOL'ED! That was fantastic!
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
I know I said it'd probably take me like a week or so to enter the requisite data but I got really bored today, so here it is.


Dixie Kong
Lyn
Little Mac
Krystal
Mii
Paper Mario
Villager
Bandana Dee
Midna
Skull Kid


A couple of notes: Villager is the animal crossing villager. Yes it somehow got that right but couldn't get Megaman. Go figure. Anyway it had a 47.78% accuracy guessing the Brawl new commers.... so yeah. I may tweak this a bit to try to get that accuracy higher, and if I do I'll let you know how that effects the results.

EDIT: Oh and just for fun I had it print out who it thought was least likely to get in and it said Chrono (Chrono Trigger) and Pac Man.
 

PlayerXIII

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
209
NNID
ShailsPT
3DS FC
3652-1682-9410
Mine will work on a different way: It will have a set limit of characters to be included (say 50), veterans and newcomers alike and will try to guess the whole roster. What I mean the character pool would be something like 70 and then you could set the number of characters in the new smash (say 50) and it would fit 50 of those 70 in the roster. Some characters will be always included due to the way I plan to have the program decide (the original 12 and those already confirmed). It will atrribute "scores" to each character (determined by a number of things like popularity, how many representatives the franchise has in smash, veteran from brawl, veteran from melee, etc.) then rank them from highest to lowest and decide the roster that way. I am also thinking about creating another slighty more random option which makes the robot behave slighty more human by being subjective to certain characters (a "gut feel", if you want to call it) and make him randomly add more score and subtract score from random characters. This could shake things up a bit. Of course, the robot would also have certain conditions like, for example, if Marth and Roy were tied or close to tied for the last spot, the robot would automatically choose Marth. In other cases, it would check their statistics or as last resort choose them randomly.

With my (temporarely) low knowledge of C++, this will take quite a bit to do but I hope the result actually comes somewhat decent.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Mine will work on a different way: It will have a set limit of characters to be included (say 50), veterans and newcomers alike and will try to guess the whole roster. What I mean the character pool would be something like 70 and then you could set the number of characters in the new smash (say 50) and it would fit 50 of those 70 in the roster. Some characters will be always included due to the way I plan to have the program decide (the original 12 and those already confirmed). It will atrribute "scores" to each character (determined by a number of things like popularity, how many representatives the franchise has in smash, veteran from brawl, veteran from melee, etc.) then rank them from highest to lowest and decide the roster that way. I am also thinking about creating another slighty more random option which makes the robot behave slighty more human by being subjective to certain characters (a "gut feel", if you want to call it) and make him randomly add more score and subtract score from random characters. This could shake things up a bit. Of course, the robot would also have certain conditions like, for example, if Marth and Roy were tied or close to tied for the last spot, the robot would automatically choose Marth. In other cases, it would check their statistics or as last resort choose them randomly.

With my (temporarely) low knowledge of C++, this will take quite a bit to do but I hope the result actually comes somewhat decent.
Sounds pretty good. I didn't have my program try to guess veterans at all... except Metwwo and maybe Roy (I can't remember if I added him to the data or not) because they were cut from ssbb, but my robot would have considered them new comers. Mine ordered a list of all potential new comers by average distance from other character data (I treated character data like N-dimensional points... So if I thought x, y, and z were potentially relevant attributes of characters, It would treat it as though it was (x, y, z) ), and then it selected the top 10 as new comers. Why 10? I don't know. It seems like a fairly reasonable number to me, but I chose it arbitrarily. Overall it sounds like our methods are kinda similiar. I never had a score or random bias, but that latter idea of random bias sounds fun.

EDIT: Oh and good job for going by the spirit of the law rather then the letter of it. I had a rule saying no randomness but that was meaning, not to have a completely random selection. Random preferences is great, and indeed encouraged.
 

DakotaBonez

The Depraved Optimist
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
2,549
Location
San Marcos, Texas
The Sakurai Thought Process Algorithm is unattainable, a fools dream! But I commend you for your efforts and eagerly await the day when your robot can be at 60% Accuracy!

But still 40% accuracy is awesome. Maybe we will see Little Mac and Dixie Kong in the next smash. Keep piling on obscure series! It's the only way to be certain! Chibi-Robo, Balloon Fighter, Starfy, Drill Dozer and so many more!
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
The Sakurai Thought Process Algorithm is unattainable, a fools dream! But I commend you for your efforts and eagerly await the day when your robot can be at 60% Accuracy!

But still 40% accuracy is awesome. Maybe we will see Little Mac and Dixie Kong in the next smash. Keep piling on obscure series! It's the only way to be certain! Chibi-Robo, Balloon Fighter, Starfy, Drill Dozer and so many more!
Nearly 50% but It's not as good as it sounds. Bare in mind, it would have had a 32.5% accuracy on average by picking randomly, because it only has so many options to choose from, and by nature of the data I gave it, all of the Brawl cast was guaranteed to be there. Still that's roughly 15% that is due to sheer algorithmic goodness, which isn't bad, considering that as you mentioned the Sakurai thought process algorithm is unattainable.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
For some reason the 47% barrier is hard to breach. By introducing some randomness I was able to get 53% by just spamming the program. It took forever though. Anyway Here is what I have at 53%

Mii
Dixie Kong
Mewtwo
King K. Rool
Villager
Krystal
Wii Fit Trainer
Megaman
Black Shadow
Paper Mario

Also it actually got the three reveals! I swear I didn't even look at the character outputs when spamming, I just spammed until I got a higher accuracy on brawl characters, and then copy pasted what the prediction for ssb4 is in that case. Also I actually enforced the no more then 5 of a franchise rule this time.
 

PlayerXIII

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 14, 2013
Messages
209
NNID
ShailsPT
3DS FC
3652-1682-9410
Finished the Character List and attribute list. 68 characters, including the original 12 and those already confirmed. I might add more later though. Will make sure it is possible to add more characters to the program. For example: For me, Rayman isn't even deserving of being considered an option but for someone else he might be so that person adds Rayman to the list and gives him what he/she thinks are fitting attributes (popular, etc.) and lets the program do the work. They might also not consider a character fitting that already is in the program so they exclude the character from the list.
 

Mr.Showtime

Smash Ace
Joined
Aug 22, 2006
Messages
597
Location
FL
Haha you are a programmer too?

Currently getting my B.S. in Game and Simulation Programming. This seems like a fun activity to tackle. The only thing here is that I think, depending on how much information we give the AI, the result would be pretty easy to figure out on our own unless there is some random variable. If we try to take all the information of sales, character influence, etc, then all of our programs will show the same results. Its kind of hard to make this program unbiased.
 

John12346

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
3,534
Location
New York, NY
NNID
JohnNumbers
Whoops, didn't read the OP about not using RNGs... sorry!

I just let an RNG take potshots at this picture: http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2011/12/504c878ce892d1708492bf135529c8db.jpg

Number of Characters: 36(Randomized between 30 and 50)

Mario Series:
Bowser
Princess Peach
Pirahna Plant
Petey Pirahna
Larry Koopa
King Wart

Donkey Kong Series:
Bleak
Diddy Kong

Wario Series:
Mona
Wario

Yoshi Series:
Yoshi Egg

Metroid Series:
Dark Samus
Mother Brain

Kirby Series:
Meta Knight

Star Fox Series:
Arwing
Slippy Toad
Andross
Fox McCloud
Wolf O'Donnel

F-Zero Series:
Captain Falcon
Black Shadow

Pokemon Series:
Meowth
Snorlax
Pidgey
Rayquaza
Deoxys

Other Series:
Earthworm Jim - Earthworm Jim
Balloon Fight - Balloon Fighter(Enemy)
Dragon Quest - Slime
Castlevania - Simon Belmont
Brain Age - Dr. Ryuta Kawashima
Double Dragon - Billy
Scribblenauts - Maxwell
Resident Evil - Leon
Street Fighter - Ryu
Doshin the Giant - Doshin
Rayman - Rayman

...

At any rate... I'm certainly glad we don't have robots making the character choices for us...
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Whoops, didn't read the OP about not using RNGs... sorry!

I just let an RNG take potshots at this picture: http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2011/12/504c878ce892d1708492bf135529c8db.jpg

Number of Characters: 36(Randomized between 30 and 50)

Mario Series:
Bowser
Princess Peach
Pirahna Plant
Petey Pirahna
Larry Koopa
King Wart

Donkey Kong Series:
Bleak
Diddy Kong

Wario Series:
Mona
Wario

Yoshi Series:
Yoshi Egg

Metroid Series:
Dark Samus
Mother Brain

Kirby Series:
Meta Knight

Star Fox Series:
Arwing
Slippy Toad
Andross
Fox McCloud
Wolf O'Donnel

F-Zero Series:
Captain Falcon
Black Shadow

Pokemon Series:
Meowth
Snorlax
Pidgey
Rayquaza
Deoxys

Other Series:
Earthworm Jim - Earthworm Jim
Balloon Fight - Balloon Fighter(Enemy)
Dragon Quest - Slime
Castlevania - Simon Belmont
Brain Age - Dr. Ryuta Kawashima
Double Dragon - Billy
Scribblenauts - Maxwell
Resident Evil - Leon
Street Fighter - Ryu
Doshin the Giant - Doshin
Rayman - Rayman

...

At any rate... I'm certainly glad we don't have robots making the character choices for us...
Not exactly what I intended as you already pointed out, but still surprisingly funny. I really love how yoshi egg is the yoshi character ^_^ Also some of these characters like Bleak, I hadn't heard of, so I learned something. But indeed I agree, I am glad robots aren't making this decision. If any robot were going to though, I'd want it to be Watson, but it would probably do things too much off of popularity.
 

MargnetMan23

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 18, 2013
Messages
1,667
Whoops, didn't read the OP about not using RNGs... sorry!

I just let an RNG take potshots at this picture: http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2011/12/504c878ce892d1708492bf135529c8db.jpg

Number of Characters: 36(Randomized between 30 and 50)

Mario Series:
Bowser
Princess Peach
Pirahna Plant
Petey Pirahna
Larry Koopa
King Wart

Donkey Kong Series:
Bleak
Diddy Kong

Wario Series:
Mona
Wario

Yoshi Series:
Yoshi Egg

Metroid Series:
Dark Samus
Mother Brain

Kirby Series:
Meta Knight

Star Fox Series:
Arwing
Slippy Toad
Andross
Fox McCloud
Wolf O'Donnel

F-Zero Series:
Captain Falcon
Black Shadow

Pokemon Series:
Meowth
Snorlax
Pidgey
Rayquaza
Deoxys

Other Series:
Earthworm Jim - Earthworm Jim
Balloon Fight - Balloon Fighter(Enemy)
Dragon Quest - Slime
Castlevania - Simon Belmont
Brain Age - Dr. Ryuta Kawashima
Double Dragon - Billy
Scribblenauts - Maxwell
Resident Evil - Leon
Street Fighter - Ryu
Doshin the Giant - Doshin
Rayman - Rayman

...

At any rate... I'm certainly glad we don't have robots making the character choices for us...
But dude that would be like the best roster EVER! What's a pikachu? Clearly pidgey is the most important pokemon for SSB4! MAKE IT HAPPEN SAKURAI
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
Finished the Character List and attribute list. 68 characters, including the original 12 and those already confirmed. I might add more later though. Will make sure it is possible to add more characters to the program. For example: For me, Rayman isn't even deserving of being considered an option but for someone else he might be so that person adds Rayman to the list and gives him what he/she thinks are fitting attributes (popular, etc.) and lets the program do the work. They might also not consider a character fitting that already is in the program so they exclude the character from the list.
Personally I didn't keep user friendliness in mind at all. You edit the file of characters or franchises directly and pray you put all the numbers in the right order.
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
So my robot was 2/9 (I'm not including villager since he was already revealed). *shrugs* That's not so bad I guess. Especially when you consider that I was 2/11. And no they aren't the same 2 either. Though one of them is the same and that is Little Mac. I guess he really was going to get in this game no matter what.
 
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