As someone who has not only extensively played SF (ST, Alphas, 2I/3S, 4, EX, etc.) at least at a decent level (I can legitimately do combos like Jumping Attack --> Standing/Crouching Attack --> Special, for starters) over the years, but is also strongly desiring to main him (the #1 reason for this is his ability to cancel normals into specials, seemingly not only the exact opposite of Jr's Side B JCs that seems very much in line with Scarlet Weather Rhapsody & Melty Blood's main juggling systems, but also what I personally believed Smash has NEEDED since... ever. Believe it or not, in his series, Ryu's among my least played, due to how much more interesting everyone else is, like Yang, Q, Hakan, R. Mika, and ST Fei Long), I can speak of several details I have observed throughout the 2 days thus far.
Before I speak of said details, I should warn you that these notes are merely Day 1 & 2 Findings, and thus should likely be considered 1st Impressions.
Bowser Jr, the Prince of Juggles VS Ryu, the King of Combos
Let's start with our default Mechakoopas. I'll state this upfront: Ryu has some answers to our Mechas, and at least 2 of them involve his Specials:
Focus Attacking through it, or Dash Cancelling his FA after taking the 1st Mecha hit towards or away from you. Oh, and he can safely land onto it with a FA and either finish the attack or even DC either direction afterwards. Does this mean he can FADC in the air? Yes! Multiple times, even! NO ONE in USF4 is capable of doing so, by the way. Expect to see this for more often than just confronting Mechas.
Invincible DP through it (requires inputting the actual F,D,DF motion for the invincibility, otherwise he'll get tagged)
Strong DTilt (hold the button) or DSmashing it
Parrying(Power)Shielding (This could mean either a free punish or you getting Shoryuken'd or Crouching HP'd (aka USmash) or aerial'd or even grabbed if he reads your upclose punish attempt & Mecha's not nearby to protect you)
Dash attacking it upclose to pick it up
Some of his moves aren't good for dealing with our Mechas, such as these:
Dash Attacking (over) it from a distance, since while it'll hit the Mecha, it'll blow up in his face while he's still Jumping Medium Kicking.
Grounded Hurricane Kick. Even inputting the actual motion for it will not let him sail over it.
(Red) Hadoukens, for our Mechakoopas go completely under them.
Default Cannonballs can challenge even his Red Hadoukens, even when uncharged/merely tapped. It's a handy option for getting in on a Ryu that's trying to recreate the Super Turbo fireball+uppercut trap. However, the gutsy ones MAY try to clash with it with a lingering move like NAir. More likely, he'll try to jump, "parry" (aka, Just Defend, or rather, powershielding), or even FADC past Cannonball. Grounded Hurricane Kicks will lose to it as well.
If he DOES get in on you, you can expect his genuine combos to match the amount of damage our Side B JC juggles can do to him. Can it exceed? I do not know yet, so only time will tell. There's been news about a possible
infinite, but whether or not it works on Jr...
Our Combo Breakers would probably be Jab, DTilt, NAir, possibly Up 1/2, and Grounding Dash if equipped.
As for general engagement, our ranged disjoints should definitely be abused, since they can challenge Ryu's upclose melee moves in terms of speed as well (Frame 4 Jab & DTilt for sure), and aside from Side B ramming, we don't necessarily have to be as upclose to him as he generally has to against us due to our ranged disjoints.
While he's famous for solidly punishing Dhalsim's stuck-out limbs, I don't believe the Clown Car's various A button moves are as vulnerable as his limbs, are they?
If they are... *Flashbacks to the moments where Ryu cleanly Hadoukens & Shoryukens Dhalsim's various MP, MK, HP & HK attacks from seemingly half-way across the stage throughout the series, and whistles loudly*
Offstage is where we win, especially once he's below the ledge, due to our superior vertical recovery. Above it, his Hurricane Kick can carry him great horizontal distances, as can his FADCs (which he can do multiple times in the air, as well as Hurricane Kicks). His Hadoukens can give him some air time to help himself move forward while throwing out some cover fire to protect himself from certain approaching angles. If you suspect that he's going to FADC his way back to the stage, DAir & Koopa Drift's Spinouts (quite risky, I'll admit) can challenge it, as can 2+ UAirs (also risky if he reads the 1st one) & Air Cannon. This is the point where Air Cannon becomes quite useful, for his only real options for dealing with it off-stage are air-dodges, Hurricane Kicks, and Hadoukens. FADCs can somewhat combat it, but Shoryukens lose to it off-stage if he doesn't snap the ledge with it.
If caught out of your Clown Car (i.e. Post Up B), try to avoid getting Hadouken'd or jabbed or some other weak hit, so that pressing R (airdodge button) will actually get you back your Car?? (This could use some testing to confirm)
Since I've brought up FADCs a few times, I suppose it would be fit to speak of how to challenge it. Much like in SF4, FAs can be beaten by either specific attacks meant to break it (Rose's EX QCF+K (Soul Spiral), for example), multi-hitting attacks, or (command) grabs. Here in Sm4sh, only the 1st point is missing, leaving the latter 2 moves as options. While our grab may still be poor (unless the patch has sped it up or gave it more range and I just haven't noticed it yet), it can still function, and we do have multi-hitting moves that can challenge it. DTilt, Jab 2 & beyond, DAir, Up 1 & 2 (?), Default Mechakoopas (not necessarily by itself unless he waits too long to DC it left or right, but if we're nearby...), Koopa Drift (Side 2)'s Spinouts, USmash, and FSmash can all hit multiple times.
Our Customs Loadout would probably be among these decks: 1221, 1211, 3221, 3211, 1121, 3111, 3121.
Of these decks, I'd personally recommend 3221 or 1221. The more likely picks would be 3211 or 1211.
Air Cannon may not do anything to his Hadoukens, but it will certainly wreck his recovery (especially if he's below the ledge), approaches, FADCs, and some of his other moves. It'll probably lose to his grounded Hurricane Kicks, which you'll certainly see when he's recovering, as well as when he's looking for headshots (possibly when you're Side B-ing. If that's the case, if you can close in on him when his leg is pointed away from you, your Side B can win. If it's towards you when you reach him....??)
Koopa Drift boosts our horizontal recovery, and it can definitely help challenge FADCs and some of his other moves. Side 1 can challenge FADCs as well, but reliably punishing it will likely require JC-ing out of it into an aerial.
Meteor Ejection can deny him DAir spikes and other aerial edgeguards, due to its super armor.
I'd want to pick Big Mechas, but default seems to trouble him enough as it is. Plus it's not as good at combatting FADCs by itself as default Mechas are.
Ryu's stuck with 1111, so there's nothing for us to examine there.
Not sure which specific stages we should be sending him to, aside from our own favorable stages like FD/Omegas, Smashville, and possibly T&C. As much as I'd love to say Lylat to abuse his not-so-good vertical recovery, I'd only advise going there if you can run sets like 3312 or 1312 or 3322 or 1322. If not, I wouldn't go there against him. Delfino & Halberd's low ceilings would help his sometimes lackluster KO power, and Castle Siege's 1st transformation, while stuffing Hadoukens & Impatient/Big Mechas, has walkoffs that render Default Mechas only good for a line, so those aren't advisable either. I'd want to say Dream Land N64, but I'm not sure if Whispy Woods would be kind to default or Big Mechas...
