I have analysed the rosters of previous smash games, and there are a few notable things i'd like to point out:
The major rule, is that Starters are the main characters or the most popular lead of their franchise, or a representation of the most popular characters if there are multiple versions (Pikachu, Link and Zelda)
There are 3 exceptions to this:
1- 3rd party reps, are hidden.
2- important, WFT retros are hidden (notice that both ROB and MGW fill that bill)
3- If the series is considered too niche at the time, they will have no one on the starting roster (Mother in 64, F-zero on that and Brawl, Fire Emblem in melee),
*this doesn't apply to normal retro characters, as seen with the IC and Pit
So, let's first assume everyone from brawl is back besides squirtle and ivysaur, and we end up with the same roster disposition. In other words, Luigi, Jiggs, Falcon, Ness, Marth, MGW, Ganondorf, Falco, Wolf, ROB, TLink, Lucario, Sonic and Snake will all be hidden. There is a special case in Ike which i will soon address.
Now, let's see the confirmed newcomers.
WFT, Villager, Mac and the Miis are the stars of franchises which are very popular, or in Punch-out!!'s case, not out-of-focus enough to be that niche. they are all bound to be starters, no questions asked.
Now, Pacman and Megaman are obviously going to be unlockable due to being 3rd party; Greninja isn't groundbreakingly popular to be a starter, and Rosalina isn't enough of a main character for her series to be a starter, either.
finally, we have Palutena. She is undoubtedly a main character of Kid Icarus, but the fact that she is mostly a support character might bring her down to secret status. However, like Peach and zelda, she played the "damsel in Distress" paper, and was basically the major plot device in her series for the first game and a bit of uprising (not sure about Myths and Monsters). So her status is unknown to me, but if i had to bet... starter.
ike, similarly enough, has some problems due to no longer being THE face of Fire Emblem. Assuming Chrom will get in, he could've been brought down to secret status, too. However, due to being the only guy to recently star 2 games, and surely enough being very popular in and out of Fire emblem, (particularly in smash bros due to being easy for noobs to rock with), i doubt he won't be a starter, but the chance's still there.
as for rumored newcomers, first, the gematsu 3.
Chrom, is obviously the current face of Fire Emblem, what with his game being both the most recent and popular... and both factors scream "starter" to me.
Shulk and Chorus Boys, could be considered too niche and be unlockable. CB has a shot at starter role, but shulk has no such chance IMO.
Now, rumored newcomers!
Retro characters will be starters, for sure, unless they are something like, dunno... Virtual Boy or Power Glove.
Dixie Kong has a shot at being a starter, but outside of DKC3 and DKL3, she's been mostly not that important and a support character, so i doubt it. K.rool has no shot at all.
Ridley and whatever metroid newcomer we might get, unlockable. Same goes for Zelda, Pokemon, Kirby, Star Fox and Mario newcomers (Toad is less prominent than Luigi, before you argue)
I don't believe any series with 1 rep will be brought up to 2, but even then, outside of something with Baby Mario/Baby Bros, i don't see any starters. Mother and Kid Icarus have the same issues: i don't see a 3rd rep, but maybe that's because they are hidden... *snicker*
For new series... Advance Wars and Golden Sun had games recently but not TOO recently, so i'm not sure they'd get a starter character, specially golden Sun (which is less notable)
so, that's it from me.
