Some Brawl Character Logic

[BuSHiDo]

I just wanna get a few things out of the way to set a foundation of logic where there is much chaos. There are 26 characters in Melee. Not all are returning. That's a fact. So it depends on how many are eliminated. It will have to be between 2 and 9. I don't see him eliminating any more than that. So let's say at the very least, we're left with 17 from Melee. So far we have 11 confirmed veterans from Melee.

Mario
Yoshi
Peach
Bowser
Kirby
Pikachu
DK
Link
Zelda
Samus
Fox

Character that will most likely be returning. (roughly)
Luigi
Captain Falcon
Ganondorf
Ness
Jiggly
Marth/Roy

This is what we're left with at the very least. Now, for new characters that we know of.

Pit
Wario
Zero Suit Samus
Diddy
PT
Ike
Snake

This is only 24 characters so far that we can be pretty sure of. Like I said, Melee had 26. I think most of us expect Sakurai to give us a decent amount more than we had in Melee. I would assume that the character count won't be any less than 30, and definitely can't be more than 40 cuz then we're bordering on absolutely ridiculous.

This means we should expect somewhere between 6 and 16 new characters still to be revealed either in the Dojo updates, or after the release on our own. I just saw a thread moments ago mentioning that if we see 1 character per week, we'll get about 15 more. So this does seem to be in line with what's to be expected based on my humble opinion.

I'm not the best person to make a list of what's expected, and I know there are already lists on these boards, but if someone would care to make a list of 16 or so characters that most people think will be in the game, and then perhaps list them in order of most likely to least likely, we'll have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Of course, there will be total surprises like PT that nobody could have guessed, but this will just be as close an estimate as we can get really.

Feel free to discuss and contribute to the making/editting of the list with characters you are pretty sure will be making an appearance.

Ok, I'll start.

Sonic - One of the most likely third party characters mentioned so far, and considering Sega is now working with Nintendo and they've even got their games for the Virtual Console, I'm guessing they're cool enough with each other to do something like that.

 

[Dave the Perspicacious]

I fail to see much point in this thread i'm afraid, maybe others will. This will just be an "everyones top 16 characters for Brawl" thread.

I suggest to make this thread in the slight bit useful, that you tally up how many times each character appears and then make a list based on that and post it in your original post.

EDIT: This seems to be what your suggesting...

Forgive me, if I am missing the point.

Dave

 

[BuSHiDo]

Yeah, no problem. I'm not really asking that everyone make their own list, more like suggest a character or two that they feel are most likely, and then I'll simply tally it up and make a main list editted into the first post.

 

[MR.WIGZ]

theres already a thread like this http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=114411

Luigi
Captain Falcon
Ganondorf
Ness (maybe be replaced with lucas)
Jiggly

FE might go with more recent characters

 

[Kirby knight]

King Dedede - The character with the most votes on Sakurai's poll. Recurring boss in all Kirby games except one. He's more important than Metaknight to the series. Not adding King Dedede to the playable roaster would be like not adding Bowser. Personal creation of Sakurai.

 

[Gypsy Lee]

Needs moar Ridley.

 

[Wyvern]

I wouldn't say that Marth is so likely to come back. My current opinion is that Sakurai felt that Marth's moveset needed to be nerfed, but decided that it would be more appropriate to pass the moveset on to a new character rather than make Marth look slow and clumsy. However, there's bound to be at least one popular Japan-only FE hero, so even though it could just as likely be Sigurd, I guess I'll leave in the Marth slot for now.

Anyway, on with the list!

1. King Dedede
2. Ridley
3. Krystal

I'd say these three characters are all but guaranteed to be in. Between their spots on the poll, their places in their respective series, and just plain old common sense, I have no reason to doubt any of them.

Now it gets trickier. Here are some slots that are guaranteed to be filled...but by who?

4. Falco OR Wolf

With Krystal being a shoe-in, what will become of the third character slot? In my eyes, it comes down to Falco's Smash history versus Wolf's ability to balance the roster with more villainy. Since both need created-from-scratch movesets (at least Krystal has a staff and a game full of staff attacks to draw from), and due to the fact that I sincerely doubt Starfox will have four character slots, I doubt we'll see both. However, a third Starfox character is pretty much guaranteed, whoever it is.

5. Young Link OR Midna

This one really requires some explanation. We're sure to have at least one additional character besides the Big Three for the LoZ series. But who? If Sakurai keeps with the Twilight Princess theme, wolf-riding Midna is a popular candidate (and with Ivysaur in the picture, there are no more technical limitations on quadrupeds). However, if he instead decides to branch into the "Young Link" series, than a cell-shaded Young Link would be another popular choice. Granted, having both in the game together is entirely possible (unless Sakurai would prefer a cel-shaded villain like, say, Vaati, to keep YL company), but in counting a bare minimum, it'll be at least one. The odds of having five Zelda characters (whether it's Midna and YL or YL and an accompanying villain) are pretty reasonable, though.

6. Mewtwo OR Lucario

This one might not be entirely fair. There is an argument to be had that the Pokemon Trainer is enough to justify removing both Pichu and Mewtwo without adding any replacements. I think it would be a real shame to not give poor Mewtwo a second shot, though. Having both him AND Lucario is clear off the table at this point, of course.


So that leaves up to 10 more slots for characters not related to Pokemon, Kirby, Star Fox, Zelda, or Pokemon (unless you really think one of those series ought to be expanded beyond my expectations). By this point, it's pretty much anything-goes. I'll make some predictions anyway, though (in no particular order).

7. Captain Olimar
8. Geno

These were two more characters that ranked highly on the poll (that is to say, as high as some of the characters I mentioned above). Olimar would be tough to design a moveset for, but Sakurai is a creative guy. The more pressing issue is getting rights to Geno from Square. That could go either way, really, but I don't see what use they could possibly have for him at this point.

9. Game & Watch OR Ice Climbers

You allotted a spot for neither, but it's not unlikely that at least one will return. Both were unique characters, if a little obscure. And with Diddy fighting solo, it would be a real shame to lose the dual-fighter mechanic. Could be both, could be neither...but I feel like saving a spot for at least one isn't uncalled for.

10. Lyn OR Hector

Okay, maybe this is wishful thinking on my part. But if SSBM had two slots for Fire Emblem characters when nobody outside of Japan had ever heard about it, surely having three in Brawl would not be remiss. With Ike being the first, and the second no doubt being either Marth or Sigurd to satisfy Japanese fans, maybe Sakurai could save just one itty bitty character slot for America's and Europe's firstest-ever Fire Emblem? Pleeeeease?

11. Balloon Fighter OR Mach Rider

Everyone keeps saying these guys were in the Melee beta. Let's see if they've still got what it takes to fill one of the prized super-retro character slots.

12. Lucas OR some other Mother 3 character

Mother 3 is huge in Japan, and Sakurai has already confirmed in interviews that Brawl will feature some Mother 3 content (I think he may have been talking about music specifically). I really doubt Ness is going anywhere (at least I hope not), but a second Mother character isn't inconceivable. Besides, maybe it'll force Nintendo to finally translate that game! People will pay money for it, I promise!

13. Sonic

I really wish he wouldn't. But I don't think there's really any stopping it at this point.

14. Simon Belmont OR Megaman OR Bomberman OR Crono OR an old FF character

I figure we've got at least one more third-party slot (given that I don't really count Geno as third-party). Let's see if we can't make better use of it than the other two.


With total curveballs like the Pokemon Trainer whacking us upside the head, I dare not try to fill in the last two. But regardless, I'd say that all of these characters have a very significant shot.

 

[Dave the Perspicacious]

Isaac from Golden Sun - I really hope Brawl gets to see this amazing Venus Adept as a Newcomer. It would be far too much of a shame if he didn't make it in. With Psynergy, Djinn and Summons, his moveset would have the potential to be simply spectacular.

Ridley from Metroid - Nuff said.

More magic users... :bigthumbu

Dave

 

[MR.WIGZ]

Needs moar Ridley.

sadly ridley may only end up as a boss, heres hoping that hes playable

 

[GreenKirby]

Using logic here is like using water-drenched sticks to make fire

 

[shminkledorf]

lol ya dat wud b cul