GrimmTale
Smash Rookie
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2018
- Messages
- 5
The more time passes, the more likely Sora's chance seems. This topic is getting picked up by youtubers as of late but none of them are really laying down ALL the evidence and when you do, it's a bit staggering.
One thing everyone obviously points to is that Vergeben has said a new SE rep is coming as DLC. But he took it further than that 20 days ago by stating that the first DLC character will be the SE rep.
Why is the SE rep being first important? Well lets look at...
The Timeline.
Smash Ultimate Release: December 7th - > Kingdom Hearts 3 Release: January 25th -> Estimated Piranha Plant release: February 7th* -> First DLC Announcment: probably around February 7th -> Estimated First DLC release: April 19th**
*Sakurai said Piranha Plant would release about a couple months after launch
**Sakurai said the 5 DLC characters will all be released by February 2020. So assuming they get started after Piranha Plant release, they have about 12 months to do 5 characters. 12 months / 5 characters = average of 2.4 months a character.
So, looking at the estimated timeline, what would it mean if Sora was the first DLC character?
-His announcement would likely surge KH3 initial sales
-The hype leading up to his release would keep up the momentum of the initial sales for a couple months
-The DLC release would add ANOTHER surge of KH3 sales right when the KH3 sales are probably dying down significantly
"But Sora is owned by Disney, and they're jerks!"
-If you haven't been following the Sora4Smash campaign that you probably don't know that a youtuber named HMK spoke with one of the Disney VP's who stated that they would be open to the idea so long as SE and Nomura were cool with it, and so long as Nintendo approached them first. Nomura went on to say that as long as the fans want it, and as long as he is represented well, they would also be down. So it comes down to demand and the willingness of Nintendo/Sakurai. The least we can say is that the demand is definitely there.
"But Nintendo gave Sakurai a list of characters to choose from. Why would they cut a deal with some other company when they can use their own IPs for free?"
-Because people LOVE, LOVE, LOVE crossovers. Why did they add Ryu? Or Cloud? If you're going to charge 5.99 for a character, a stage and music, any chance to get a good deal for a sure-fire homerunner is one worth pursuing. 5.99 for a character might not sound like much to some, but if you divide the 60 dollar price of the game by the number of characters in the base roster, that's less than a dollar a character and we're only talking about characters in that scenario. And before you say "Sakurai chose Cloud and Ryu" you're nuts if you think Nintendo lets him do whatever he wants always. They're paying a lot for this game, they definitely get their input. If they didn't want strongly didn't want Sakurai to do third party DLC, he wouldn't have been able to do it period. And I bet Cloud DLC sold the best from just how fuggin hype it was.
"Still though. SE is very protective of their IPs, and Cloud was said to have been one of the hardest bargains during development and ended up being the last character to be locked down."
-Is it totally out of the realm of possibility that Sora could have been involved in those negotiations? SE very well could have needed the money sooner than later as they have not been having a great time for awhile now. And SE could have strong armed Nintendo and said "Look, we know you're trying to get everyone back, and you need Cloud to do that. This is our price." But surely Nintendo knows SE isn't in the best position to be pushing them around. And so Nintendo could have replied "Fine, we will do you a solid this time, but when it comes to the DLC rep, you're going to do us the solid" Then SE replied "Only if it's Sora and only if we get to be first" and Nintendo said "Deal." That's obviously total speculation and an oversimplified example, but is that too far of a stretch? Idk you tell me. I honestly know very little of how these IP negotiations go in Japan but I could see it going down like that. The biggest evidence against this idea is that HMK's video was made in May of this year, only a month before Smash at E3, and Disney and SE were speaking as if none of them had talked to Nintendo about Sora yet, and Cloud was almost definitely locked in before that HMK video so that puts a pretty big red flag on this idea unfortunately. But, all that talk could have been posturing, or maybe the deal went down a little differently. The main point being that, when it comes to NEW characters SE isn't really in a position to be making demands and they outta know that getting Sora in Smash right during KH3 release would do great things for their sales.
But the community really wants Geno...QQ
-I'm QQing right with you but unfortunately Geno doesn't give Square Enix much of anything.
TL;DR
Vergeben said that the first DLC rep is from SE and that matches even better with the KH3 release and gives SE a large incentive to go through with it. Furthermore Disney and SE have stated that they are open to the idea as long as there is demand (which there is) and Nintendo has been shown to be not totally against having third-party DLC. Yes SE is very protective of their IPs especially when it came to Cloud but Sora in Smash during KH3 release is a big win for SE and they don't really have room to ask for much when it comes to new characters AND it's a guarenteed homerun for Nintendo as far as DLC choices so it's a win-win scenario. And Geno is cool and I love him and I wish he could join but his inclusion doesn't do anything for SE so you tell me why wouldn't it be Sora?
...I guess it could be a Dragon Quest rep...since Dragon Quest is on the Switch now or something...dammit.
One thing everyone obviously points to is that Vergeben has said a new SE rep is coming as DLC. But he took it further than that 20 days ago by stating that the first DLC character will be the SE rep.
Why is the SE rep being first important? Well lets look at...
The Timeline.
Smash Ultimate Release: December 7th - > Kingdom Hearts 3 Release: January 25th -> Estimated Piranha Plant release: February 7th* -> First DLC Announcment: probably around February 7th -> Estimated First DLC release: April 19th**
*Sakurai said Piranha Plant would release about a couple months after launch
**Sakurai said the 5 DLC characters will all be released by February 2020. So assuming they get started after Piranha Plant release, they have about 12 months to do 5 characters. 12 months / 5 characters = average of 2.4 months a character.
So, looking at the estimated timeline, what would it mean if Sora was the first DLC character?
-His announcement would likely surge KH3 initial sales
-The hype leading up to his release would keep up the momentum of the initial sales for a couple months
-The DLC release would add ANOTHER surge of KH3 sales right when the KH3 sales are probably dying down significantly
"But Sora is owned by Disney, and they're jerks!"
-If you haven't been following the Sora4Smash campaign that you probably don't know that a youtuber named HMK spoke with one of the Disney VP's who stated that they would be open to the idea so long as SE and Nomura were cool with it, and so long as Nintendo approached them first. Nomura went on to say that as long as the fans want it, and as long as he is represented well, they would also be down. So it comes down to demand and the willingness of Nintendo/Sakurai. The least we can say is that the demand is definitely there.
"But Nintendo gave Sakurai a list of characters to choose from. Why would they cut a deal with some other company when they can use their own IPs for free?"
-Because people LOVE, LOVE, LOVE crossovers. Why did they add Ryu? Or Cloud? If you're going to charge 5.99 for a character, a stage and music, any chance to get a good deal for a sure-fire homerunner is one worth pursuing. 5.99 for a character might not sound like much to some, but if you divide the 60 dollar price of the game by the number of characters in the base roster, that's less than a dollar a character and we're only talking about characters in that scenario. And before you say "Sakurai chose Cloud and Ryu" you're nuts if you think Nintendo lets him do whatever he wants always. They're paying a lot for this game, they definitely get their input. If they didn't want strongly didn't want Sakurai to do third party DLC, he wouldn't have been able to do it period. And I bet Cloud DLC sold the best from just how fuggin hype it was.
"Still though. SE is very protective of their IPs, and Cloud was said to have been one of the hardest bargains during development and ended up being the last character to be locked down."
-Is it totally out of the realm of possibility that Sora could have been involved in those negotiations? SE very well could have needed the money sooner than later as they have not been having a great time for awhile now. And SE could have strong armed Nintendo and said "Look, we know you're trying to get everyone back, and you need Cloud to do that. This is our price." But surely Nintendo knows SE isn't in the best position to be pushing them around. And so Nintendo could have replied "Fine, we will do you a solid this time, but when it comes to the DLC rep, you're going to do us the solid" Then SE replied "Only if it's Sora and only if we get to be first" and Nintendo said "Deal." That's obviously total speculation and an oversimplified example, but is that too far of a stretch? Idk you tell me. I honestly know very little of how these IP negotiations go in Japan but I could see it going down like that. The biggest evidence against this idea is that HMK's video was made in May of this year, only a month before Smash at E3, and Disney and SE were speaking as if none of them had talked to Nintendo about Sora yet, and Cloud was almost definitely locked in before that HMK video so that puts a pretty big red flag on this idea unfortunately. But, all that talk could have been posturing, or maybe the deal went down a little differently. The main point being that, when it comes to NEW characters SE isn't really in a position to be making demands and they outta know that getting Sora in Smash right during KH3 release would do great things for their sales.
But the community really wants Geno...QQ
-I'm QQing right with you but unfortunately Geno doesn't give Square Enix much of anything.
TL;DR
Vergeben said that the first DLC rep is from SE and that matches even better with the KH3 release and gives SE a large incentive to go through with it. Furthermore Disney and SE have stated that they are open to the idea as long as there is demand (which there is) and Nintendo has been shown to be not totally against having third-party DLC. Yes SE is very protective of their IPs especially when it came to Cloud but Sora in Smash during KH3 release is a big win for SE and they don't really have room to ask for much when it comes to new characters AND it's a guarenteed homerun for Nintendo as far as DLC choices so it's a win-win scenario. And Geno is cool and I love him and I wish he could join but his inclusion doesn't do anything for SE so you tell me why wouldn't it be Sora?
...I guess it could be a Dragon Quest rep...since Dragon Quest is on the Switch now or something...dammit.
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