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Rate Their Chance is coming back soon!

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So Rate Their Chances has been in retirement for awhile. With finally some news on it, Rate Their Chances will be making a return.

This thread will serve as a discussion thread until I get time to start it up again, which will be in another thread. Just posting this thread so I can think about this until I get time.
 

Swamp Sensei

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So Rate Their Chances has been in retirement for awhile. With finally some news on it, Rate Their Chances will be making a return.

This thread will serve as a discussion thread until I get time to start it up again, which will be in another thread. Just posting this thread so I can think about this until I get time.

Need help with it?
 

colder_than_ice

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I wanted to participate in this last time, unfortunately it was already over when I found it. :(
Thanks for bringing it back, I'm looking forward to it. :)
 

DMurr

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Sweet, yeah. I'm looking forward to this. It'll be nice to see what everyone's opinions of characters are now. The gates are open to seemingly any character now.. Villager being previously denied and Wii Fit Trainer coming out of no where -- who knows what's next?
 
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Glad people are getting excited!

@Swampasaur: I should begin working on reviving Rate Their Chances tomorrow evening after I'm off work.

Some ideas I have that I want to share:

- What methods of rating would you prefer? A percent system, a decimal system or a grade system (B-, B, B+, etc.)
- First day before we get into character, I want to give people the opportunity to give their thoughts on what they though of the odds of Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man and Villager along with an opportunity to predict the score of the candidate that gets the most nominations?
- Thoughts on this game being spanned across multiple sites? It'd be interesting to see the scores for not only this site but also NeoGAF and GameFAQs. Hasn't been done before and I'd think it would introduce some neat dynamics.
 

SmashChu

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With how SSB4 is going, I'm not sure anyone will be able to gauge character's chances.
 

MasterOfKnees

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With how SSB4 is going, I'm not sure anyone will be able to gauge character's chances.
Brawl only had R.O.B as an extremely odd character choice, I don't think that WFT is an indication of the rest of the character roster, we might get one more oddball character but it'll probably be the limit after that. It's not like Villager or Mega Man were highly unlikely at all, both had great support during Brawl's development, and Villager's support only fell because of Sakurai's comments about Animal Crossing being too peaceful while Mega Man had a constant level of support up 'till his announcement.
 

Knight Dude

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Kinda like rating characters by percentage myself. Though the grading system is the more lenient option.
 

MasterOfKnees

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- What methods of rating would you prefer? A percent system, a decimal system or a grade system (B-, B, B+, etc.)
- First day before we get into character, I want to give people the opportunity to give their thoughts on what they though of the odds of Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man and Villager along with an opportunity to predict the score of the candidate that gets the most nominations?
- Thoughts on this game being spanned across multiple sites? It'd be interesting to see the scores for not only this site but also NeoGAF and GameFAQs. Hasn't been done before and I'd think it would introduce some neat dynamics.
-I'd prefer percentage, it's easy to figure out, and everybody can relate to it.

-Sounds good, as long as it doesn't take up more than a day or two's voting.

-I think it's best to see if it's gonna be a success again on here. If it happens to be very popular here again it would be ideal to bring it to NeoGAF and GameFAQs, though it'd be nice to have some kind of grade to show the difference between each site's ratings.
 

FalKoopa

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- What methods of rating would you prefer? A percent system, a decimal system or a grade system (B-, B, B+, etc.)
- First day before we get into character, I want to give people the opportunity to give their thoughts on what they though of the odds of Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man and Villager along with an opportunity to predict the score of the candidate that gets the most nominations?
- Thoughts on this game being spanned across multiple sites? It'd be interesting to see the scores for not only this site but also NeoGAF and GameFAQs. Hasn't been done before and I'd think it would introduce some neat dynamics.
- I would prefer percentages; I like the precision.

- I'm with it. Sounds good.

- I don't care as much for the results of other sites tbh, though I don't have a problem if it's taken to there. I'm fine either way.
 

PlayerOneTyler

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- What methods of rating would you prefer? A percent system, a decimal system or a grade system (B-, B, B+, etc.)
- First day before we get into character, I want to give people the opportunity to give their thoughts on what they though of the odds of Wii Fit Trainer, Mega Man and Villager along with an opportunity to predict the score of the candidate that gets the most nominations?
- Thoughts on this game being spanned across multiple sites? It'd be interesting to see the scores for not only this site but also NeoGAF and GameFAQs. Hasn't been done before and I'd think it would introduce some neat dynamics.
- I'd say a percent system would work best, but I also like the grading system.
- I'd be okay with that.
- It's not really necessary, but it's ultimately the creator's decision. I don't really think most of the community to would care.

That said, I'm excited for this, I lurked back in the day and followed this religiously.
 
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And it looks like we're going with percentage here.

When it comes to the first "two" days before we get to our first unconfirmed character, I plan on making the first two "days" twelve hours to speed things up; the first twelve to nominate characters and the last twelve to give thoughts on how you felt Mega Man, Villager and Wii Fit Trainer's chances were along with make prediction for the character that gets the most nominations (characters who aren't being predicted for their score will still receive nominations). After that, every day will be twenty-four hours.

I plan on making up to four percent results; one that is aggregate of what people at Smashboards think of a character's chances, one for GameFAQs, one for NeoGAF and one combining all the results.
With how SSB4 is going, I'm not sure anyone will be able to gauge character's chances.
This is less to see who is the most likely character but more to see what the community considers to be the most likely. This is really just nothing more than a forum game when we boil it down, just one that involves the SSB4 speculation scene.
 
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Basically what is going to go down:

[COLLAPSE="How To Play"]Rate Their Chance is a game where you can rate a character's likelihood based off your own judgment. In order to vote, you would give a percentage of 0-100% (up to the hundredth decimal place) in how likely they are to get in the game. Feel free to use any reason at your disposal, but do note that you will be subjected to scrutiny for your own vote as people will have varying opinion on characters. At the end of the day, all votes for a character will be tallied up for an average score of how people think of their likelihood. Only one new character will be voted on at a time.

Along with a vote you are able to do two things; nominate character and predict the next character coming up. Nominations can be given to up to five characters at one time. They can be used however the person feels like using the nominations; whenever that is splitting them up into multiple characters or dumping it all into one. A character with the most nomination is up for their prediction the next day. Predictions are an opportunity for people to predict the score the character gets overall (not how likely they think a character is) and like voting for likelihood, can be voted from 0-100% (up to the hundredth decimal place). Whoever comes closest to their prediction being right will win five extra nominations for ten nominations the next day and if they hit the score correctly, they will gain ten extra nominations for fifteen nominations the next day.

Each character can also be rated in how much a person wants a character with the same scale as with predictions and voting for likelihood, though keep in mind that they will not effect placement nor do they have any rewards; they're just there for fun.

After a character has their round over, they will be retired for thirty days. After that, they are free to be re-voted on but have to reach 100 nominations before that happens. If that happens, then they go through predictions for their re-vote and when they are up, they don't replace the new character in, but rather compliment the new character. After a re-voted character day is over, the new score replaces the old one, although the old one will still be accessible for those curious. Note that if multiple characters reach 100 votes; the one who gets the most vote will go first.

This game will take place on two forums; Smashboards and GameFAQs. Because of the site limitation, each day, I will create a new thread on GameFAQs for a character. There will be three tallies; one for Smashboards, one for GameFAQs and one for both sites put together. Rules will be as similar as possible unless stated otherwise.[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Rules"]There are some rules though.

First off, all rules on this site must be respected and exceptions are not made just because this is a forum game. Should be obvious, but worth repeating just in case. Here are some additions rules for this game:

1. Manga characters will not be rated and all characters must have a game on a Nintendo platform. Sakurai stated in Brawl that they would not get in that game. While Sakurai hasn't deconfirmed manga characters for this game, until proven otherwise they won't be rated. However, non-manga characters are eligible because they have not been explicitly ruled out yet (contrary to what people think, he has never said about a character having to originate from a video game). However, any character without an appearance on a Nintendo platform is ineligible and as such, won't be rated. Characters who have been confirmed are also not up for ratings.

However, the day before unconfirmed characters start to get rated will have the second part dedicated to giving thoughts on likelihood of the confirmed newcomers Villager, Mega Man and Wii Fit Trainer. They will not count, but are there to pass the time. The first part of the day will be solely nominating characters while the second part begins predictions for the character with the most nominations. This day will have two twelve-hours interval for both parts.

2. Counter votes are absolutely prohibited. Bias is inevitable when it comes to discussing characters, but anything in regards to countering votes to increase or decrease rating of the character will result in having the vote revoked and being unable to vote on characters for a week, no exception.

3. Flame wars are not allowed. Debates are encouraged on Rate Their Chances as after all, discussion on characters occur all the time, but remember that this is just a game. It is not the end of the world if you don't agree to an opinion and trying to win arguments on the Internet is not magically going to increase the likelihood of a character.

4. Never use this thread as an attempt to argue that a character is more likely/less likely. This is, in the end, a forum game and should be treated as such. It should not be taken into account when discussing character's odds. Again, winning arguments on the Internet doesn't magically make a character more likely.

5. If a character gets deconfirmed, they won't get rated again, no exception.

6. You may only vote on one site. Remember that this game spans across multiple websites. If you vote in one place, don't vote in another in order to increase/decrease likelihood of said character. So if you vote on GameFAQs, your vote should stay there. However, you are free to discuss on both here and GameFAQs in regards to the same character.

Failure to adhere to these rules will result in your ability to participate in this thread being removed.[/COLLAPSE][COLLAPSE="FAQs"]I don't know anything in regards to Sakurai's process to characters? Can I still participate?
Sure, but just make sure you know what you're talking about and get informed.

Once we put in our vote/prediction for a character, can we change them?
Of course, but only until that day ends. When the deadline has been met, all votes are permanent. However, it would much appreciated if you are going to edit that you make me aware of it so I don't miss it.

Are veterans and newcomers sharing nominations?
Correct. That means all five nominations are spread throughout potential veterans and newcomers.

Are veterans and newcomers voted at the same time?
No, only one character gets voted at a time, barring re-votes for previously voted characters.

Is there a limit to how many time a characters is re-voted?
Only limit is that a character can only receive re-votes once every thirty days and that is not factoring in confirmation/deconfirmation.

How long does this game last?
Until release of Super Smash Bros. Wii-U and 3DS. The game ends there.

What if DLC characters happen? Does the game continue?
No. Once the game gets released, the game ends, no exception.

Are we just rating characters? How about other things like stages, items, etc.?
Only if there's a demand and if I have time/someone else wants to do it, but I'll keep that in mind.

Anything I can do to help?
If I need help I'll ask for it, though you are certainly welcome to contribute by other means.

Look this character did great in Rate Their Chances! It's totally getting in!
Hahaha, no. There is a reason why I frown upon people using this forum game in arguments for or against a character.[/COLLAPSE]

This is just what I have so far. Tell me what you think?

Also, NeoGAF may or may not be involved. I'll have to finish up this thread and then PM the mod in regards to whenever or not a thread like this is allowed.
 

Opossum

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I'm excited to see this start back up again. This was really fun last time. :D
 
D

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Actually, I'll keep it to just Smashboards and GameFAQs considering that I can't post threads on NeoGAF.
 

Banjodorf

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I'm so pumped for this.

LET'S DO IT!
 

Erimir

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Some obsessive should go back over the previous Rate Their Chances (where might the original threads be along with the results?) and compare what the "wisdom of the crowd" was compared to what actually happened.

You might be thinking, "well, if we rated a character 50%, they only either appeared or didn't appear, how do we know whether we were accurate? We'd be equally wrong either way."

The proper way to do this would be to compare the number of characters predicted at certain probabilities against the number of characters that did appear.

So, for example, if 20 characters were rated at ~75% chance, then if the "Rate Your Chances" thread was any good, somewhere around 13-17 of those characters would've made it in. If 10 are rated 50%, then around 4-6 of them should get in. And so on.

I'd be interested to know whether the original thread was any good, or if it was laughably wrong.
 
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