Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[LiveStudioAudience]

Nintendo would never do this, but I do find myself occasionally wishing a low-key Smash spinoff based around the less prominent Nintendo characters existed. Something on the budget level of a Kirby Fighters which gave the spotlight to the kind of first party figures that haven't made it playable status in SSB. I know the insinctual reaction by some would be despair because their inclusion in such a game would seemingly suggest they wouldn't make to main Smash, but still it would be a cool novelty. Heck you could even make the stages based around IP's or levels that haven't gotten into Smash in that context either; levels from Excitebike, Mach Rider, Style Savvy, Clu Clu Land, Rhythm Heaven, etc.

 

[fogbadge]

Not even a little.

what a shame

Sometimes, yeah. Might be dating myself here, but I remember when plenty of people wanted characters like Vaati for smash. Those were the days...

ah yes I remember those days

 

[chocolatejr9]

Nintendo would never do this, but I do find myself occasionally wishing a low-key Smash spinoff based around the less prominent Nintendo characters existed. Something on the budget level of a Kirby Fighters which gave the spotlight to the kind of first party figures that haven't made it playable status in SSB. I know the insinctual reaction by some would be despair because their inclusion in such a game would seemingly suggest they wouldn't make to main Smash, but still it would be a cool novelty. Heck you could even make the stages based around IP's or levels that haven't gotten into Smash in that context either; levels from Excitebike, Mach Rider, Style Savvy, Clu Clu Land, Rhythm Heaven, etc.

TBH, that's part of the reason why I wouldn't mind a Smash mobile game: depending on how they do it, it'd give them an excuse to dig deep into their history for potential additions.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

anyone else miss when nintendo characters dominated speculation?

Honestly? I just think Smash has already filled out all the "Important" parts of Nintendo's legacy at this point.

Like, at this point all i can really expect from Nintnedo in future smash games is a new Mario rep, a new Fire emblem rep and a new Pokemon rep, i genuinely can't think of any other Nintendo character they COULD add, maybe Isaac?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I mean depending how various franchises go, there could be numerous other Nintendo characters added outside the those aforementioned series. BWD, Impa, Dixie Kong could easily be in the next game with virtually no blowback and who knows what the future might be for something like Xenoblade with its potential characters.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Honestly? I just think Smash has already filled out all the "Important" parts of Nintendo's legacy at this point.

When did Smash acknowledge Nintendo's beginnings on the Playing Cards market? Or their toy manufacturing years? And most importantly, their love hotels i mean, their efforts of giving the license to other companies to adapt their franchises to other forms of entertainment? (like the Pokémon anime or the DKC animated series).

 

[Hadokeyblade]

When did Smash acknowledge Nintendo's beginnings on the Playing Cards market? Or their toy manufacturing years? And most importantly, their love hotels i mean, their efforts of giving the license to other companies to adapt their franchises to other forms of entertainment? (like the Pokémon anime or the DKC animated series).

They used Misty's anime design in Melee and Ash is mentioned in one of the many trophy descriptions. So the Pokemon anime has been referenced before

 

[chocolatejr9]

When did Smash acknowledge Nintendo's beginnings on the Playing Cards market? Or their toy manufacturing years? And most importantly, their love hotels i mean, their efforts of giving the license to other companies to adapt their franchises to other forms of entertainment? (like the Pokémon anime or the DKC animated series).

Unless it's canon to the games, NEVER.

 

[Wonder Smash]

anyone else miss when nintendo characters dominated speculation?

Can't say I do. With all the most important Nintendo characters in the roster already, it's better to expand the speculation beyond just that, especially to what are considered "honorary Nintendo characters".

 

[HyperSomari64]

Unless it's canon to the games, NEVER.

Hardcore Nintendo fans when Smash doesn't reference their taxi service in the 1960s.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

They should put a minigame in the next smash about playing Hanafuda with Nintendo themed cards.

 

[HyperSomari64]

They should put a minigame in the next smash about playing Hanafuda with Nintendo themed cards.

Well, at least it's the closest to a Clubhouse Games representation.

 

[smashkirby]

anyone else miss when nintendo characters dominated speculation?

Honestly? Immensely. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate 3rd parties (I'm one of those who popped OFF at Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud and Sephiroth, to name a few), but they just don't do it for me like Nintendo.

Bonus points if said Nintendo character is someone who hasn't had a game in a while/isn't exactly who or what you think of when one thinks of Smash Bros.

Nintendo would never do this, but I do find myself occasionally wishing a low-key Smash spinoff based around the less prominent Nintendo characters existed. Something on the budget level of a Kirby Fighters which gave the spotlight to the kind of first party figures that haven't made it playable status in SSB. I know the instinctual reaction by some would be despair because their inclusion in such a game would seemingly suggest they wouldn't make to main Smash, but still it would be a cool novelty. Heck you could even make the stages based around IP's or levels that haven't gotten into Smash in that context either; levels from Excitebike, Mach Rider, Style Savvy, Clu Clu Land, Rhythm Heaven, etc.

TBH, that's part of the reason why I wouldn't mind a Smash mobile game: depending on how they do it, it'd give them an excuse to dig deep into their history for potential additions.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind something like this. For as much as I would LOVE for the series LiveStudioAudience mentioned to get a playable character (among MANY other Nintendo series), I can't say I'm holding my breath on seeing them get a playable rep in Smash anytime soon.

All of that being said, a Nintendo mobile game digging even deeper into Nintendo's history (like, even more than Smash Bros. itself) would be such a sight to see.

 

[Mamboo07]

anyone else miss when nintendo characters dominated speculation?

Kind of.

Third Party reps got more popular in speculation.

 

[Quillion]

Nintendo would never do this, but I do find myself occasionally wishing a low-key Smash spinoff based around the less prominent Nintendo characters existed. Something on the budget level of a Kirby Fighters which gave the spotlight to the kind of first party figures that haven't made it playable status in SSB. I know the insinctual reaction by some would be despair because their inclusion in such a game would seemingly suggest they wouldn't make to main Smash, but still it would be a cool novelty. Heck you could even make the stages based around IP's or levels that haven't gotten into Smash in that context either; levels from Excitebike, Mach Rider, Style Savvy, Clu Clu Land, Rhythm Heaven, etc.

Captain Rainbow was an attempt at least.

Honestly? I just think Smash has already filled out all the "Important" parts of Nintendo's legacy at this point.

That's the problem with Nintendo making very few new major IP compared to other studios (keyword: MAJOR). But at least they have more room to revive characters and ideas in the backlog whereas Sony IE mainly just shoves unsuccessful new IP aside never to be revisited.

Like, at this point all i can really expect from Nintnedo in future smash games is a new Mario rep, a new Fire emblem rep and a new Pokemon rep, i genuinely can't think of any other Nintendo character they COULD add, maybe Isaac?

TBH, I don't even see Mario getting any more new "main characters" from this point forward. I think any deuteragonist that joins Mario will just be secondary one-shots the way Zelda and Kirby have it.

 

[SPEN18]

Are we really back to the "gee, there's no more good Nintendo characters to add" stuff? Both existing and new 1P franchises still have so much to offer.

Plus they're going to have enough trouble retaining the 3Ps we already have that Ult very likely could be the high water mark numbers wise on the 3Ps.

 

[DarthEnderX]

what a shame

It's not. Things are better now.

Can't say I do. With all the most important Nintendo characters in the roster already, it's better to expand the speculation beyond just that, especially to what are considered "honorary Nintendo characters".

This. Discussions about iconic 3P characters is way more interesting than arguing over Nintendo's D-listers.

 

[NintenZ]

decided to change some stuff on here, lemme know what you think!

 

[Quillion]

Are we really back to the "gee, there's no more good Nintendo characters to add" stuff? Both existing and new 1P franchises still have so much to offer.

Try to name any new first-party franchises and I assure you none of them will be major enough to warrant having anything more than an assist trophy by current inclusion patterns.

Existing first-party franchises has more hope, but there aren't a lot of proven main characters left. Just Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong among "fixed cast" franchises, so we'll just get back into the thorny issue of how to handle Pokémon, Fire Emblem, and Xenoblade again.

 

[DarthEnderX]

decided to change some stuff on here, lemme know what you think!

Geralt GTFO. Otherwise good.

 

[Opossum]

TBH, that's part of the reason why I wouldn't mind a Smash mobile game: depending on how they do it, it'd give them an excuse to dig deep into their history for potential additions.

I'll be honest, the free to play mobile format would be worse for the odds of obscure deep cuts, not better.

The very nature of those games, especially if it goes for a gacha angle, requires that the characters you're pulling are popular enough to warrant whales spending the big bucks for them. A character being super obscure would mean fewer people would want to spend on them by the very nature of obscurity itself, and therefore there would be a much lower chance of them being added.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

View attachment 366951
decided to change some stuff on here, lemme know what you think!

I man of taste as always. I dig all the double ups.

 

[MrMcNuts]

anyone else miss when nintendo characters dominated speculation?

Like many have said they've knocked out the majority of big dog lovable Nintendo characters except for a few

Also as much as I love alot of nintendo characters the whole brand loyalty/brand love thing has died off a lot as I got older and now I just love characters and games based on their merits if that makes sense.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Are we really back to the "gee, there's no more good Nintendo characters to add" stuff? Both existing and new 1P franchises still have so much to offer.

I guess Atral chain and Xenoblade 3 could get stuff but other than that i dont know what else they could do. Unless they chose to do a GBA era character to add, which they've ignored up to this point.

I'll be honest, the free to play mobile format would be worse for the odds of obscure deep cuts, not better.

The very nature of those games, especially if it goes for a gacha angle, requires that the characters you're pulling are popular enough to warrant whales spending the big bucks for them. A character being super obscure would mean fewer people would want to spend on them by the very nature of obscurity itself, and therefore there would be a much lower chance of them being added.

They could hypothetically use it as a test bed to see what franchises people would want to see in future mainline stuff by looking at people's data and see how many Isaac's people are using as opposed to Takamaru's or something like that.

 

[Quillion]

I guess Atral chain and Xenoblade 3 could get stuff but other than that i dont know what else they could do. Unless they chose to do a GBA era character to add, which they've ignored up to this point.

The more I think about it the more Astral Chain seems more AT material than fighter material.

 

[Ivander]

TBH, that's part of the reason why I wouldn't mind a Smash mobile game: depending on how they do it, it'd give them an excuse to dig deep into their history for potential additions.

I'll be honest, the free to play mobile format would be worse for the odds of obscure deep cuts, not better.

The very nature of those games, especially if it goes for a gacha angle, requires that the characters you're pulling are popular enough to warrant whales spending the big bucks for them. A character being super obscure would mean fewer people would want to spend on them by the very nature of obscurity itself, and therefore there would be a much lower chance of them being added.

Yeah, if doing something meant to be simple like Fire Emblem Heroes, having a focus on unknown characters would result in the game not lasting long since it's the popular characters that would pull the revenue. Part of the reason why games like Grand Order and Granblue work is because their characters are part of a large story and you get alot of details about them from that story, as well as their Bio materials and whatnot. Their characters don't feel one and done and they are constantly making an appearance.
Whereas Fire Emblem Heroes doesn't put a major focus into story and mainly relies more on the popularity the characters already have from their games for the most part. While character interactions are a thing like in Forging Bonds and Tempest Trials, they tend to be quite straightforward and still often rely on the player having knowledge about them beforehand. You do have rare exceptions like Reinhardt where either their design or their impact in the Mobile game's gameplay have made an impact on their popularity, but still, there are very few exceptions.

If you want a Mobile game that focuses around the less important IPs and characters, you need something to give reasoning to the players on why they should get these characters or to make the players want these characters. Without them, the game designed for these low popularity characters is not going to last long exactly because of these characters low popularity that most people would not care about.

There are plenty of Nintendo IPs and characters that I would love to see being given attention than just simply a cameo crossover or JPEG image and whatnot(ironic when we're talking about Mobile games like FEH and other Gachas), but not only do you have the characters' obscurity working against them, it would require alot of strategy, commitment, intent and cooperation to merely attempt to make it work, which very often is not something the people making money want to focus on.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I'm willing to give an argument that Nintendo fans would buy into this hypothetical idea because most mobile games live entirely off of a few select people who are obssessed with it, combine that with hardcore Nintendo fans and you have a recipe for some longevity.

Granted this could probably only work in Japan anyway.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm willing to give an argument that Nintendo fans would buy into this hypothetical idea because most mobile games live entirely off of a few select people who are obssessed with it, combine that with hardcore Nintendo fans and you have a recipe for some longevity.

Granted this could probably only work in Japan anyway.

Honestly, I'm just glad for the constructive criticism. For as much as I've given the idea thought, I never stopped to consider the issue of prioritising popularity. Admittedly, I DID have an idea for a story that could get the characters directly involved, but I got worried it would end up being a ripoff of Dragon Ball Heroes so I didn't want to share it...

Anyways, thanks guys! Gave me something to think about.

 

[SPEN18]

Try to name any new first-party franchises and I assure you none of them will be major enough to warrant having anything more than an assist trophy by current inclusion patterns.

Existing first-party franchises has more hope, but there aren't a lot of proven main characters left. Just Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong among "fixed cast" franchises, so we'll just get back into the thorny issue of how to handle Pokémon, Fire Emblem, and Xenoblade again.

The comment and discussion were about whether people like defocusing discussion on the Ninty chars, not whether many Ninty chars are likely. I don't necessarily want all the "current inclusion patterns" to continue. But even if we go based off of "current inclusion patterns," then I feel like there is still a pretty large stock of characters who fit, in fact more than enough to fill a roster with roughly the same average hype level as the newcomers in base 4 or Ult. The selection gets even wider if we throw likelihood and patterns to the wind.

In terms of new franchises specifically, and operating under the extremely dull and dumb "beep beep strictly obey current inclusion patterns beep beep" paradigm, there is still a decent number that more people than just me would think have at least a reasonable shot: Golden Sun based on popularity, Rhythm Heaven given that it almost got in before, Ring Fit for its bananas sales, Astral Chain as a potential Shulk 2.0 type of inclusion, or another one-off NES franchise like Excitebike. And again if we're talking just "having lots to offer Smash" like I was saying rather than simply likelihood, then the selection becomes rapidly vast.

Sometimes it feels like people expect every single inclusion to be "mainstream hype" enough to sell well as a 5.99USD standalone. People forget that the bar is actually very low for Smash newcomers to be well-received, at least in the long term. We have seen characters without appearances in 15+ years, characters whose games had less than 1mil sales, characters who have rarely if ever been one of the 1-2 most important characters in their games of origin, JP-only characters, and a character whose game wasn't even released before their Smash debut all become hugely popular through Smash to the point that many of the same people clamoring for every pick to be a Cloud-Strife-level third party icon also don't want to cut any of them.
As much I don't like Sakurai choosing characters explicitly for the sake of having a surprise, the man is on to something with the philosophy that people know some of what they want, but not all of what they want.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

The more I think about it the more Astral Chain seems more AT material than fighter material.

Well, if Arms could get a fighter I don't see why Astral chain is more AT material. Although it might depend of the timing of release of the next Smash and if Astral chain get a sequel or not.

 

[ceterisparibus]

I didn't only do source gaming and you know it lol.

It's obvious that you just don't like the character so you're coping by making up rules on why my examples don't count and ignoring the fact he's coming back in Mario Rabbids.

Like I've said before people don't have to like him and he's definitely not a lock, but making stuff up to downplay it is illogical. I've already proved my points so I won't try any further to change your mind.

Ah yes, the "global smash poll" where the top 10 consists of 3 other TF2 characters. Or hollow knight inexplicitly making it to top 5 despite all other polls not doing well. Definitely not a red flag right there.
I'm going to call sus on all of these given how fricking sora ended up polling way worse than normal even through nintendo actively went after him, which implies their internal polling prioritized him.

Pretty strange how you immediately jumped to "poster must not like the character if he's listing down all these points" through...although you didn't even address the other 2 points again. Well, at least you did admit that japan not knowing the character, although downplaying it? When the benchmark for western 3rd parties have been extremely tight, why rayman of all characters?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

To those wondering if there are still worthwhile Nintendo characters to add... just wait.

New franchises will be created and more characters will become prominent with time.

Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure are already two strong looking IPs. Older characters like Bandana Waddle Dee and Pauline are becoming more prominent than before. We just need to wait for the landscape to fully change. It's only been a year since they stopped adding characters.

 

[SPEN18]

Well, if Arms could get a fighter I don't see why Astral chain is more AT material. Although it might depend of the timing of release of the next Smash and if Astral chain get a sequel or not.

fwiw ARMS sold like twice as much as Astral Chain, which could matter. And yeah I don't think Astral Chain's timing will help it luck out unless it gets a sequel.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

fwiw ARMS sold like twice as much as Astral Chain, which could matter. And yeah I don't think Astral Chain's timing will help it luck out unless it gets a sequel.

It's also important to remember that ARMS came out in 2017, while Astral Chain came out in 2019. Astral Chain may have been too recent for serious consideration as a new IP.

 

[SPEN18]

It's also important to remember that ARMS came out in 2017, while Astral Chain came out in 2019. Astral Chain may have been too recent for serious consideration as a new IP.

Ya I don't think it means anything that Astral Chain didn't make Ultimate due to that timing. To me it's a borderline case in terms of likelihood because it's in that "1mil but not multi-mil" sales bracket that is enough to get in but usually only if you have a favorable circumstance/timing and/or a lot of spots for 1P newcomers. Of course a sequel can change things but I could also see it becoming like Golden Sun 2.0 where it remains a popular pick for Smash but due to bad timing has trouble actually making it in.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

New franchises will be created and more characters will become prominent with time.

Well yeah i didnt mention it because that kinda goes without saying lol

 

[Wonder Smash]

I just finished River City Girls Zero today.

I really enjoyed it. It holds up pretty well for a SNES era game. Plus, I like how Kunio and Riki look like Yusuke and Kuwabara. lol

This makes two River City/Kunio-kun games that I've played so far and both are great. In addition to that, I also got Mighty Fight Federation with Kunio and Riki in it.

I think they should be brought up in more Smash discussions. A lot of people don't realize the potential they have.

 

[Quillion]

New franchises will be created and more characters will become prominent with time.

New franchises will be created, but how much of them will be major though?

Nintendo makes lots of new IPs sure, but rarely are they given the big push that Splatoon and ARMS have gotten in recent years. They aren't ones to put out safe-looking sword-fighting open world RPGs or cinematic sci-fi shooters as "hot new franchise" with regularity.

It's also important to remember that ARMS came out in 2017, while Astral Chain came out in 2019. Astral Chain may have been too recent for serious consideration as a new IP.

Don't forget that ARMS was an EPD production that got a big push while Astral Chain was a low-key commission from Platinum.

Astral Chain is higher-budget than something like Golden Sun for sure, but it seems to still fill that general niche of low-key IPs.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Obviously most of the big first party additions have been hit. That doesn’t mean that there will be no more first party additions. The base roster for the next game will predominantly be first parties from the switch era. Sure, there aren’t as many titans of speculation in terms of first parties anymore, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t anyone worth adding. I can name plenty of characters that are first party that could easily fill out a roster for Ultimate DX or Smash 6 or what have you. Here’s an example.

• Pauline
• Waluigi
• Captain Toad
• King Boo
• Dixie Kong
• Cranky Kong
• Ashley
• Impa
• Skull Kid
• Bandana Dee
• Meowscarada (you can put any Gen 9 Pokémon here)
• Alear (above but Fire Emblem)
• Noah/Mio
• Octolings
• Tom Nook
• Officer Howard
• Ring Fit Trainee
• Isaac
• Chorus Kids
• Takamaru
• Excitebiker

I tossed together a list of 20 plus reasonable first party newcomers that could be unique. This is without throwing in echos. I could have gone further and thrown in more picks like Krystal or what have you. Hell, you could do something stupid and make the Nintendo LABO robot a character. So long as Nintendo is making games besides Smash, there will be first party picks to pull from.

Most of the first party doomerism here is overblown. People get salty and upset that first parties get in but not the ones they want. People will whine when Nintendo and Sakurai choose picks that are more modern or are were relevant when the roster was made. Sakurai and Nintendo have been doing that since the beginning arguably. I know some people might want to return to the era of Smash 4 speculation. The field might be larger now, and that’s scary for some people. But first parties can still gain traction and get fans even now. In ultimate’s environment, I watched communities like Skull Kid, Officer Howard, or King Boo blossom. If you are passionate about a character, make the case for them. Show people why they would be a cool pick. Explain why they could make it in. Support doesn’t come from nowhere. Not every character will get tons of support, but if you make your case well it could catch fire. The only difference now is just the field is bigger and most of the easy first party picks are in.

Honestly I’m very happy speculation is more open. It’s more fun having the field be as wide as possible. One of the best parts of speculation is hearing people’s dream picks or dark horse picks. It was fun to make the case that Sephiroth had a solid shot as a third Square rep. It was great seeing companies like SNK or Falcom get the love they deserve. It’s fun seeing people talk about their dream picks even if they aren’t likely. I doubt DarthEnderX thinks Bill Rizer is a lock. I know Gengar84 would be ecstatic for Illidan. That doesn’t stop people from pushing what they want. People can make the case why Bill Rizer deserves to be in smash or how cool Illidan Stormrage would be in Smash. That doesn’t take away from the ability for others to say they think Isaac or Adeline would be cool. You are the master of your own destiny. If you want to tell people how cool Cranky Kong would be in Smash, do it. Just because he isn’t a big hype third party doesn’t mean other people won’t find him interesting as well. It’s better to push your interests while accepting others might not be as enthusiastic than to sulk and complain that this isn’t 2013 Smash 4 speculation.

fwiw ARMS sold like twice as much as Astral Chain, which could matter. And yeah I don't think Astral Chain's timing will help it luck out unless it gets a sequel.

The DLC for Ultimate’s second season was in the fall of 2019. Astral Chain wasn’t even out for a week when they confirmed FP2 was in existence. It’s a big false equivalency to suggest that just because ARMS got in first Astral Chain has no shot. For starters, ARMS was one of the two things Sakurai mentioned explicitly would have gotten a playable rep if the timing was better alongside Xenoblade 2: both got in as DLC. But you also love to understate that Astral Chain was successful. It was a successful IP that Nintendo bought full ownership of from Platinum, they clearly have plans for it in the future. If they didn’t, they would have just let Platinum hold partial ownership.

The next game, whether it Ultimate DX, Smash 6, or a hard reboot, will almost undeniably be looking at primarily the switch for new content. Dismissing a new character that had a successful new game that is brimming with moveset potential just feels like a bad idea.

 

[MrMcNuts]

To those wondering if there are still worthwhile Nintendo characters to add... just wait.

New franchises will be created and more characters will become prominent with time.

Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure are already two strong looking IPs. Older characters like Bandana Waddle Dee and Pauline are becoming more prominent than before. We just need to wait for the landscape to fully change. It's only been a year since they stopped adding characters.

I getcha though Pauline would be kinda weird. But she's from Mario so I could see her getting in as much as I wouldn't want it. (I like Pauline but she comes off as one of those characters that doesn't need to be playable and would be better as a support role?)