Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Thegameandwatch]

If Sakurai's next project is Smash and it releases in late 2025, I don't think a 75 character roster is that unrealistic (especially if you boost the number with echoes). Assuming development lasts from early 2022 until mid 2025, that's 3.5 years of development. To put that into perspective, Ultimate had 2.5 years of development from February 2016 until mid 2018.

2025 seems unlikely since I feel like the next 3D Mario will be the big title of the Switch 2.

 

[Gengar84]

If Sakurai's next project is Smash and it releases in late 2025, I don't think a 75 character roster is that unrealistic (especially if you boost the number with echoes). Assuming development lasts from early 2022 until mid 2025, that's 3.5 years of development. To put that into perspective, Ultimate had 2.5 years of development from February 2016 until mid 2018.

I think that’s my ideal realistic scenario. If we get DLC passes throughout the life of the Switch 2 and eventually get up to 100 characters by the end, that would be awesome. I don’t think it’s entirely out the realm of possibility.

 

[Garteam]

2025 seems unlikely since I feel like the next 3D Mario will be the big title of the Switch 2.

Why not both? You could have 3D Mario as the big launch title and Smash as the big Christmas jamboree title, similar to Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey back in the day.

 

[Perkilator]

Why not both? You could have 3D Mario as the big launch title and Smash as the big Christmas jamboree title, similar to Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey back in the day.

Nintendo will probably also want a new Mario Kart and a new Animal Crossing out that year, so even if a new Smash is ready in 2025, they’ll probably still want to release it in 2026.

 

[fogbadge]

Nintendo will probably also want a new Mario Kart and a new Animal Crossing out that year, so even if a new Smash is ready in 2025, they’ll probably still want to release it in 2026.

an animal crossing game won’t be ready to launch this year. not unless they use a lot of assets from new horizons

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Smash being a Year 2 title always feels right to be because it's just the right time to be early in the console's life but also, depending on when development started, it would be just late enough in the previous console's lifespan that none of it would get shafted due to poor timing.

If Smash is the thing Sakurai wrote a project plan in 2021 for, that is potentially three to four entire years of the Switch that will be outright ignored due to poor timing which is not an insignificant amount. Even if Nintendo does communicate things for upcoming projects to lessen that blow, there are still things that will be left in the dust because four years is a long time. Some 2023-2024 games were likely not even conceptualized by then, let alone in development.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

2026 is when Metroid VI and Xenoblade 4 will likely release though, Nintendo would probably want to postpone Smash to 2027...

 

[Gengar84]

I’m okay with waiting until 2026 for the game itself but it would be awesome if we could get the reveal and start the prerelease hype and character intro trailers some time this year.

 

[BuckleyTim]

I just want enough breadcrumbs of existence confirmation to get the character threads back open for brainrot purposes. I'd be perfectly fine with another ultimate style buildup otherwise.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

My prediction is that Smash 6 will be teased but it's releasing later such as in 2026. It's like how Brawl was announced when the Wii had its major announcement. Same with Smash 4 with the Wii U.

 

[Gengar84]

If smash misses 2025, do you think they’d hold off for holiday 2026 or release it earlier in the year?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

2026 is when Metroid VI and Xenoblade 4 will likely release though, Nintendo would probably want to postpone Smash to 2027...

If they had the mindset of waiting until big games would come out to bring out the Smash guns, then we'd get Smash on the last year of a console rather than the first or second.

Some things have to be left out. It's a natural consequence of time. DLC might help lessen the blow, however.

 

[BritishGuy54]

2026 is when Metroid VI and Xenoblade 4 will likely release though, Nintendo would probably want to postpone Smash to 2027...

I don’t think so.

With a new IP possibly in the pipeline, and the non-zero chance XC2 gets a DE, the latest I can see Xenoblade 4 coming is 2028.

With Prime 4 in 2025 anyway, I could see Metroid VI come in 2027.

If smash misses 2025, do you think they’d hold off for holiday 2026 or release it earlier in the year?

I think they’ll aim for September/October 2026. Pokémon is bound to release Gen 10 in November 2026. And it’s not out of the question Fire Emblem comes right after that.

I wouldn’t put Smash any earlier, though. I can see Luigi’s Mansion 4 nabbing that July slot, whilst Luigi’s Mansion 1 HD is a straggler game for the Switch 1 in February 2026.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

If Smash is the thing Sakurai wrote a project plan in 2021 for, that is potentially three to four entire years of the Switch that will be outright ignored due to poor timing which is not an insignificant amount. Even if Nintendo does communicate things for upcoming projects to lessen that blow, there are still things that will be left in the dust because four years is a long time. Some 2023-2024 games were likely not even conceptualized by then, let alone in development.

I don't get the point.
If Smash starts development in 2024 instead, it's the games from 2025-27 that get left in the dust.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I don't get the point.
If Smash starts development in 2024 instead, it's the games from 2025-27 that get left in the dust.

And it's an easier pill to swallow than the entire latter half of the Switch's life being left out if it's a game planned in 2021.

It also helps that characters and stages from games on the current console, whether they came out before or after the new Smash, have a higher chance of being DLC if left out than a game that came out 5 years ago on a console that's no longer supported. An exception to this would be blatantly popular yet cut veterans; they carry enough fan support to not need promotional relevance.

There's always going to be stuff left in the dust. That's just the nature of making a crossover game. You can't have everything or else it'd never come out. But if you have to put a cutoff point, why not make sure it's a point where everything in the previous console has a shot?

 

[SubspaceJigglypuff]

Yeah, assuming those 2023-24 spirits were developed along with a new Smash (which I 100% believe); I'm a lot more confident in Joker > Bayonetta for Smash 6's base game now. 'Cause remember, they didn't just contact SEGA for those spirits; they needed Altus to get on board too, that 13 Sentinels game is owned by them.

If they're already developing Smash, then it'd also just be efficient for them to get character negotiations out the way at around the same time. "Ayo Altus, we gotta get Joker back in Smash 6, but while we're doing that, how'd u like some 13 Sentinels spirits for Ultimate?" almost seems too natural lol.

I’m okay with waiting until 2026 for the game itself but it would be awesome if we could get the reveal and start the prerelease hype and character intro trailers some time this year.

I think we'll learn of its existence this year for sure. 2025 existence confirmation and 2026 release is what I'm guessing.

 

[BritishGuy54]

I think I’m starting to get a better idea of what the Switch 2’s launch year lineup could look like.

Spoiler: Games that I’m predicting could happen in 2025-2026

January - Donkey Kong Country Returns HD, Switch 2 reveal
February - Nintendo Direct (no Switch 2), Metroid Prime 2/3 HD
March - Mario Movie 2 cast announcement, Xenoblade X DE
April - Kirby: Planet Robobot?, Switch 2 Special Presentation
May - Metroid Prime 4
June - 3D Mario, Weird Launch game, Switch 2 launches
July - Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem Echoes: The Holy War (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
August - Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (Switch 1 only)
September - New Core IP, New Super Mario Bros. Wii HD (Switch 1 Only), Mario 40th anniversary Direct
October - Mario Kart 9/X, Nintendo Direct Mini Partner Showcase
November - Pokémon Legends Z-A (Switch 1 only)
December - Mario Tennis?
January 2026 - New Monolithsoft IP
February - Luigi’s Mansion 1 HD (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
March - Super Mario Maker 3

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

There's always going to be stuff left in the dust. That's just the nature of making a crossover game. You can't have everything or else it'd never come out. But if you have to put a cutoff point, why not make sure it's a point where everything in the previous console has a shot?

Because if you want to do that, the game would have to come out at the very least during late year 3 of the next console, and they might want it to launch earlier than that.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Because if you want to do that, the game would have to come out at the very least during late year 3 of the next console, and they might want it to launch earlier than that.

They've been pretty capable of not missing out on previous consoles as year 2 titles since Brawl, from what I recall. I don't see any reason to change that.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think I’m starting to get a better idea of what the Switch 2’s launch year lineup could look like.

Spoiler: Games that I’m predicting could happen in 2025-2026

January - Donkey Kong Country Returns HD, Switch 2 reveal
February - Nintendo Direct (no Switch 2), Metroid Prime 2/3 HD
March - Mario Movie 2 cast announcement, Xenoblade X DE
April - Kirby: Planet Robobot?, Switch 2 Special Presentation
May - Metroid Prime 4
June - 3D Mario, Weird Launch game, Switch 2 launches
July - Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem Echoes: The Holy War (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
August - Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (Switch 1 only)
September - New Core IP, New Super Mario Bros. Wii HD (Switch 1 Only), Mario 40th anniversary Direct
October - Mario Kart 9/X, Nintendo Direct Mini Partner Showcase
November - Pokémon Legends Z-A (Switch 1 only)
December - Mario Tennis?
January 2026 - New Monolithsoft IP
February - Luigi’s Mansion 1 HD (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
March - Super Mario Maker 3

I don't think Pokémon Legends Z-A will be a Switch exclusive since that would bury it under Switch 2 stuff, but everything else sounds plausible.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think Pokémon Legends Z-A will be a Switch exclusive since that would bury it under Switch 2 stuff, but everything else sounds plausible.

It's usually the case for Pokémon. Pokémon usually tends to be quite slow to come to new hardware. For instance, they released BW2 for the OG DS in 2012, one year after the 3DS's launch in 2011.

 

[BuckleyTim]

It does make me wonder how long switch 1 will be supported into the switch 2's lifespan. Wii U was just straight up dropped and the 3DS was arguably supported for far too long. I definitely expect stragglers on SW1 this year, but past that I think Nintendo will have transitioned just because it's probably a tad easier to sell a game that runs on switch 1 on switch 2 instead versus changing a dual-screen 480p 3ds game into a switch 1 game (armchair dev take but still)

Ninja edit: forgot about nso exclusive games. I'm expecting any future ones to be compatible to an extent with switch 1 most likely.

 

[fogbadge]

I think I’m starting to get a better idea of what the Switch 2’s launch year lineup could look like.

Spoiler: Games that I’m predicting could happen in 2025-2026

January - Donkey Kong Country Returns HD, Switch 2 reveal
February - Nintendo Direct (no Switch 2), Metroid Prime 2/3 HD
March - Mario Movie 2 cast announcement, Xenoblade X DE
April - Kirby: Planet Robobot?, Switch 2 Special Presentation
May - Metroid Prime 4
June - 3D Mario, Weird Launch game, Switch 2 launches
July - Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem Echoes: The Holy War (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
August - Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (Switch 1 only)
September - New Core IP, New Super Mario Bros. Wii HD (Switch 1 Only), Mario 40th anniversary Direct
October - Mario Kart 9/X, Nintendo Direct Mini Partner Showcase
November - Pokémon Legends Z-A (Switch 1 only)
December - Mario Tennis?
January 2026 - New Monolithsoft IP
February - Luigi’s Mansion 1 HD (Switch 1 only), Nintendo Direct
March - Super Mario Maker 3

any animal crossing game will have been in development for less than a year. We’re not getting one this year

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

They've been pretty capable of not missing out on previous consoles as year 2 titles since Brawl, from what I recall. I don't see any reason to change that.

But maybe they do
Besides, most of Switch's 2024 has been ports and remasters. There isn't really much to miss out on.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

One thing that I hope they make a thing with the Switch 2 is an Options menu that actually does stuff. Like, it's standard everywhere else, but Nintendo's in house games seem to not have very many, if at all. I personally don't generally fiddle around with options, so I'm not super annoyed by this, but navigating Luigi's battle menu in Mario & Luigi: Brothership with the A button is making me take psychic damage.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

If Sakurai's next project is Smash and it releases in late 2025, I don't think a 75 character roster is that unrealistic (especially if you boost the number with echoes). Assuming development lasts from early 2022 until mid 2025, that's 3.5 years of development. To put that into perspective, Ultimate had 2.5 years of development from February 2016 until mid 2018.

This seems pretty feasible to me, at a glance. I guess there's another point to be considered too - that is, not to restart the biggest ****-flinging argument of 2018, but I suppose it could be possible for elements of Ultimate to be reused in a future title? I'm moreso talking in terms of things like data or the occasional models here and there, not just like, porting "Ultimate 2" to the Switch 2 or something like that.

Like, I suppose it'd be a little easier than having to restart every single returning character from scratch. (Though, that's purely speculation on my part.)

 

[Oracle Link]

If we ever do another vote it should be orderd by franchises like the Smash 2 Poll With the smash team Basically picking atleast 1 Character for lets say Zelda or Kirby!
Zelda and kirbys situation is really silly Kirby should have 5 or 6 Characters and zelda should have 8!

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

But maybe they do
Besides, most of Switch's 2024 has been ports and remasters. There isn't really much to miss out on.

Yeah but a game planned in late June/early July 2021 means that a lot of stuff from 2022 and 2023 can get a hit.

Wanted Wonder content? You're lucky if we get a stage from this late 2023 game.

Wanted a Pikmin 4 newcomer like Oatchi? Sorry, 2023.

Wanted Alear using Emblems and potential fist fights for a fresh take on a FE rep? **** you, it's a 2023 game.

Wanted someone from TotK? Nope. It's a 2023 game so you'll get minor changes to Link at best.

Wanted something from Echoes of Widsom? Best you'll get from this 2024 game is Zelda's down B getting reskinned.

Wanted new Metroid characters? Too bad, Prime 4 was basically unknown and Dread... actually, Dread might have barely made it since it'd come out 4 months after the project plan. But it wouldn't be Raven Beak in that scenario, it'd be E.M.M.I. or nothing.

Characters from Xenoblade Chronicles 3 and Bayonetta 3 (assuming Bayo comes back and brings a newcomer like Viola) might also miss their shot due to coming out about a year or more after the project plan would be written.

It would also mean Geno missed his only possible shot due to the SMRPG Remake being a 2023 game.

Pokemon would very much get its dibs as usual and get a Gen 9 rep though, while the current consensus is that if Gen X comes out before the next Smash, Paldea's screwed out of getting anything so this situation is actually beneficial for characters like Meowscarada.

 

[RileyXY1]

Yeah but a game planned in late June/early July 2021 means that a lot of stuff from 2022 and 2023 can get a hit.

Wanted Wonder content? You're lucky if we get a stage from this late 2023 game.

Wanted a Pikmin 4 newcomer like Oatchi? Sorry, 2023.

Wanted Alear using Emblems and potential fist fights for a fresh take on a FE rep? **** you, it's a 2023 game.

Wanted someone from TotK? Nope. It's a 2023 game so you'll get minor changes to Link at best.

Wanted something from Echoes of Widsom? Best you'll get from this 2024 game is Zelda's down B getting reskinned.

Wanted new Metroid characters? Too bad, Prime 4 was basically unknown and Dread... actually, Dread might have barely made it since it'd come out 4 months after the project plan. But it wouldn't be Raven Beak in that scenario, it'd be E.M.M.I. or nothing.

Characters from Xenoblade Chronicles 3 and Bayonetta 3 (assuming Bayo comes back and brings a newcomer like Viola) might also miss their shot due to coming out about a year or more after the project plan would be written.

It would also means Geno missed his only possible shot due to the SMRPG Remake being a 2023 game.

Yeah. In that case a lot of later release Switch games wouldn't get repped aside from Pokémon: Scarlet and Violet, which is only because of how new Pokémon reps get picked.

 

[Perkilator]

At the end of the day, we'll just have to wait and see what the next Smash is even like before we can make concrete judgements of who or what missed the boat. Who knows, maybe it'll manage to sneak at least some 2022-2023 content into the base game?

 

[HyperSomari64]

I forgot about Mega Man.

Forgetting about Mega Man is a common thing.
Even Capcom has done it for a few years

 

[RileyXY1]

I believe that the initial project plan for Smash 4 started around 2012, while Smash Ultimate's was in 2015. Thanks to the infamous Gematsu leaks we know what was in the original Smash 4 project plan before it went through changes during development. Notably the most recent characters in the base rosters of both games were Pokémon, those being Greninja (2013) and Incineroar (2016) respectively, and Sakurai did confirm that he wanted to give ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (both of which released in 2017) characters on the base roster but timing issues prevented him from doing that and instead he was forced to move them to DLC. So, we know that timing issues will happen based on when the project plan was written. We might see more of it the earlier the project plan goes back, and unfortunately a lot of Switch titles might miss out being in the base roster the same way ARMS and XC2 did.

 

[Gengar84]

Forgetting about Mega Man is a common thing.
Even Capcom has done it for a few years

Lol, the funny thing is I’m actually a big Mega Man fan in general but it just slipped my mind that he was a Smash 4 base game newcomer. I do wish I was better at playing him though.

 

[BuckleyTim]

My incredibly toxic opinion is that I'd be fine with stuff from 2022-2024 being left for dlc if it meant I could get more of the legacy picks I've been pining for in the base game. It won't happen because even if things were pre-planned as early as possible they most likely didn't kick things into serious production until studio s was publicly announced to exist, but you're threatening me with a better time than you think.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Also Jigglypuff, Toon Link and Wolf as bonuses since they had enough time after Sonic.

Man imagine the alternate universe where we had a good moveset for Sonic but at the expense of Toon Link.

...Man i dont know if i prefer that or not.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Man imagine the alternate universe where we had a good moveset for Sonic but at the expense of Toon Link.

...Man i dont know if i prefer that or not.

In the short term, I'd have probably preferred more characters.

But the fact that he's still the same way he is if not even more obnoxious in Ultimate... yeah, that alternate universe is a better one, honestly

 

[Perkilator]

Man imagine the alternate universe where we had a good moveset for Sonic but at the expense of Toon Link.

...Man i dont know if i prefer that or not.

I would.

Anyway, let’s assume that the cutoff point for base game newcomers is July 2021. With that in mind, what would your selection of newcomers be?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I would.

Anyway, let’s assume that the cutoff point for base game newcomers is July 2021. With that in mind, what would your selection of newcomers be?

Pretty much the same as it was before yeah

 

[RykZyk]

Personally i'd prefer if Smash 6 is a 3 year release title for the Switch 2. Sometimes it surprises me how much content base Smash Bros. games had despite their relative short development time. Makes me wonder how would a Smash game look like if it had many years of development.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I just hope a Smash hasn't started too soon because I actually want Switch era stuff in it.