I actually just played that matchup for about 4 hours this weekend vsing Yata! in bracket & friendlies. Expect this post to be very long as Snake vs Lucas is a very in-depth matchup that requires patience, thought, and meticulous spacing and heavy zoning. I'll work more on this tomorrow
Here's my digression on the MU:
Neutral is the most important aspect of this matchup. This is where you will be fighting Snake the most and the area that should be focused on highly. I'll break down Snake's neutral into a few aspects- grenades, land mines, C4, and ground vs aerial game.
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Grenades
By far, the most difficult part in overcoming Snake in this matchup. Grenades are Snake's main tool as they restrict movement and force smart decisions while punishing poor spacing and reckless aggression. IIRC, grenades come out on frame 8, which may seem like a lot of time, but is deceptively quick. They deal 12% from the explosion hit and 2-3% when thrown at a player.
Snake players will typically roll grenades down from platforms, especially at the start of a match. If you act as soon as the grenade is thrown down, you can avoid the grenade hitting you when being thrown. Furthermore, Lucas is fast enough at the start of a match to run off the Battlefield platform and punish Snake throwing a grenade downwards.
~Thrown grenades can be dealt in a number of ways~
The best way to deal with thrown grenades is simply to shield the grenade or run away from it.
If you're close enough, you can catch the grenade by hitting A on the ground and IMMEDIATELY throwing it back or by aerial glide tossing it back. Must be within 3-4 character spaces away or else Lucas will get hit by the grenade's explosion.
There's also a precise spacing where you can PKF the grenade and stop it right in front of Snake. Sometimes it can explode on Snake as well.
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Now as for the grenades that Snake doesn't throw at you, these can be much more tricky to counter.
If Snake has a grenade in hand, he has the following options:
- Throw up -> jump -> AGT
- Shield -> WD grab grenade -> throw it or run forward and shield / air dodge near you
- Go in shield and bait an approach
Snake can pull a grenade quickly and go right into shield if they think you're going to approach. If you don't happen to approach, this is where Snake will pick one of the first two options listed above.
The main way I've found to counter grenades is to run up next to Snake and cross him up in shield. Snake can only cipher, Dair, and Bair OoS. Lucas' jumpsquat is 2 frames faster than Snakes (4 vs 6 frames) and his aerials all come out frame 4 or 5, save for Bair. If the Snake player likes to wait for the grenade's explosion then immediately attack OoS, Lucas can beat out any of Snake's options if the Lucas player is fast enough.
Likewise, you can wait for the grenade to explode while Snake is in shield, then grab him during their shield stun or start applying pressure. Snake can't pull a grenade out in shield and it takes time to have a grenade in hand, which they can't do while being combo'd or pressured.
If Snake is landing, you have to space an Uair as to hit his lower body, just below the torso. Otherwise, you will trigger the explosion. Snake can also pull some crazy movement and will often land with his back to you, where the grenade is even more exposed.
Stages
Good stages in this matchup would be Smashville especially, PS2, FD, GHZ, and Yoshi's Island (Brawl).
Battlefield is typically a great Snake stage, but in this MU, it's only 55/45 Snake's favor on this stage.
Yoshi's Story is a toss-up, as his Ftilt, Utilt, Bair, Fair, and explosives kill very early here. It's hard to be very aggressive on this stage and proper mine, C4, and grenade placement can be extremely challenging to deal with avoiding on this stage.
Dreamland isn't impossible to win on, but it's definitely one of Lucas' least favorite stages and Snake's best stage by far. I'd say it's around 70/30 on Dreamland since there's more room to avoid explosives and going deep to ledge guard is much easier here. Beware of Snake camping the platforms.