After reading and being in several arguments about leaks and possible characters it has become apparent to me that some people need to know how to debunk a character and how not to.
The first thing you need to know is that there's very few things that truly disconfirm a character. There's also a lot of assumptions people have made that don't disconfirm a character at all.
First things first. What really does disconfim a character? The number one reasoning is if Sakuai says so. This is almost always the basis of any disconfimed character. I'll make a quick list of everything that disconfirms a character in no particular order. If you trace each one to it's roots you'll probably see that it's from something Sakurai said.
1. Appears as an Assist Trophy - This is true because it CLEARLY states it on the first post on Assist Trophies in the Dojo with little room for translation error. (http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/items/assist/assist01.html)
2. The character originates from an anime or manga or the character has never appeared on a Nintendo Console. - This is true because Sakurai himself said this while discussing the inclusion of third party characters. (http://smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=1422803&postcount=332)
3. Sakurai has specifically said the character isn't in or gave another way to disconfirm a character - As I'm not psychic this is here to show that Sakurai might say further things to disconfirm a character. However anything Sakurai says could still be proven false given faulty translations. As seen with the "Up until now Ness" incident. Just remember that there can be no room for doubt in the translation.
4. Someone else working on the game lets slip that a character isn't in with viable proof that they're said person. - There's one case where a character was confirmed by a voice actor thanks to a slip up. There are no real cases of disconfirmations through this method that I know of. But for the most part interviews where the person slips something out is the biggest offender of this kind of leak.
5. The character isn't in the final roster given to us with evidence from a Japanese source AFTER January 31, 2008 - This is obvious but we'll likely get leaks before hand, maybe even some that are completely true. However with out evidence we can't prove these rosters as true so they'll be looked at with scrutiny and doubt. With the right evidence and being provided after 1/31 as well as confirmed by multiple sources we can finally completely believe a roster and every character in it.
The next thing is common arguments that can't disconfirm anything in Brawl. These are mainly assumptions made by looking back at Melee and expecting the same trends to happen in Brawl. These also come from people's opinions on what is believable.
1. The character shows up as a trophy in the coin launcher game. - While there's a possibility that this does disconfirm characters it's not necessarily true. The assumption is that because Melee's playable character's trophies were obtained through the single player modes that means that Brawl's PC trophies are the same. Things can change between the games. Nothing in Melee is set in stone unless Sakurai says otherwise or we have the game in our hands to prove these trends.
2. The character shows up as a sticker or an enemy in SSE. - Basically the same as #1 but much worse since they're assuming something from things that weren't previously existing in the smash series.
3. That character isn't popular enough to be in Brawl. - This is a highly opinionated statement that doesn't prove anything. I could say that Slippy is in and there would be no way for you to disprove it. But there's also no way for me to prove it either (unless either of us present undeniable evidence).
4. The character is too small/big. - Does anyone really take this argument seriously? The smash series is based on taking figures (trophies) and bringing them to life to fight. A figure can be made any size no matter how big the original character is. Although my argument comes from the previous two smash games we can assume from it that there's a possibility that this is still true showing that there's a possibility for huge characters to be in, even in their original size given my argument that trends in Melee don't count for anything in Brawl.
5. The character is from a Movie or TV Show. - Although I doubt that there will be any characters from a movie Sakurai hasn't said anything about characters from Live Action Movies or Live Action TV Shows. It's pretty laughable when someone claims Ultraman will be in Brawl but there really isn't any proof against it, no matter how silly it seems.
6. Up until now and faulty translations. - In the case of Ness we have a bit of a problem. The Dojo does indeed say that Ness is out. But it says it in a very vague way. And thanks to Translators and their words on what 'up until now' means in Japanese we were further plunged into doubt with the words given by the Dojo. This goes to #3 in the first list in that if the translation isn't literal and given in a vague way Sakurai's own words can be proven otherwise. Later on we got a confirmation that Ness is in through the official Wii website further showing that Sakurai's translated words were given in the wrong fashion.
7. Clones are out so so-and-so can't be in. - Sakurai has never said anything about not including clones. So clones are completely possible. Even so said character can be decloned or given a separate move set that still reflects both characters but different in it's own right.
8. Basically anything that wasn't listed in the list I gave on what CAN disconfirm a character. - As I can't possibly come up with EVERY argument I can't make this complete. Just keep in mind what does disconfirm a character and you'll know what doesn't.
Remember, none of this is for proving that a character IS in it's for disconfirming characters. To confirm a character is much more complex. The two basic things that confirm a character are the dojo and an official source (such as the video on wii.com with the sticker icons that confirmed Lucario, Ness and Jigglypuff). There is one thing that confirms a character is in but doesn't confirm that they're PCs and that's a voice actor working with them on the game (such as Kyrstal's voice actor). Though provided enough evidence any source could be credible enough to be proven true (such as Brawl level art on characters that aren't shown in the dojo).
I know this is a little late in the Smash development and the game is only 9 days away but it would be nice if these kinds of arguments disappeared before we got the real roster.
If anyone has any other input feel free to add.
The first thing you need to know is that there's very few things that truly disconfirm a character. There's also a lot of assumptions people have made that don't disconfirm a character at all.
First things first. What really does disconfim a character? The number one reasoning is if Sakuai says so. This is almost always the basis of any disconfimed character. I'll make a quick list of everything that disconfirms a character in no particular order. If you trace each one to it's roots you'll probably see that it's from something Sakurai said.
1. Appears as an Assist Trophy - This is true because it CLEARLY states it on the first post on Assist Trophies in the Dojo with little room for translation error. (http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/items/assist/assist01.html)
2. The character originates from an anime or manga or the character has never appeared on a Nintendo Console. - This is true because Sakurai himself said this while discussing the inclusion of third party characters. (http://smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=1422803&postcount=332)
3. Sakurai has specifically said the character isn't in or gave another way to disconfirm a character - As I'm not psychic this is here to show that Sakurai might say further things to disconfirm a character. However anything Sakurai says could still be proven false given faulty translations. As seen with the "Up until now Ness" incident. Just remember that there can be no room for doubt in the translation.
4. Someone else working on the game lets slip that a character isn't in with viable proof that they're said person. - There's one case where a character was confirmed by a voice actor thanks to a slip up. There are no real cases of disconfirmations through this method that I know of. But for the most part interviews where the person slips something out is the biggest offender of this kind of leak.
5. The character isn't in the final roster given to us with evidence from a Japanese source AFTER January 31, 2008 - This is obvious but we'll likely get leaks before hand, maybe even some that are completely true. However with out evidence we can't prove these rosters as true so they'll be looked at with scrutiny and doubt. With the right evidence and being provided after 1/31 as well as confirmed by multiple sources we can finally completely believe a roster and every character in it.
The next thing is common arguments that can't disconfirm anything in Brawl. These are mainly assumptions made by looking back at Melee and expecting the same trends to happen in Brawl. These also come from people's opinions on what is believable.
1. The character shows up as a trophy in the coin launcher game. - While there's a possibility that this does disconfirm characters it's not necessarily true. The assumption is that because Melee's playable character's trophies were obtained through the single player modes that means that Brawl's PC trophies are the same. Things can change between the games. Nothing in Melee is set in stone unless Sakurai says otherwise or we have the game in our hands to prove these trends.
2. The character shows up as a sticker or an enemy in SSE. - Basically the same as #1 but much worse since they're assuming something from things that weren't previously existing in the smash series.
3. That character isn't popular enough to be in Brawl. - This is a highly opinionated statement that doesn't prove anything. I could say that Slippy is in and there would be no way for you to disprove it. But there's also no way for me to prove it either (unless either of us present undeniable evidence).
4. The character is too small/big. - Does anyone really take this argument seriously? The smash series is based on taking figures (trophies) and bringing them to life to fight. A figure can be made any size no matter how big the original character is. Although my argument comes from the previous two smash games we can assume from it that there's a possibility that this is still true showing that there's a possibility for huge characters to be in, even in their original size given my argument that trends in Melee don't count for anything in Brawl.
5. The character is from a Movie or TV Show. - Although I doubt that there will be any characters from a movie Sakurai hasn't said anything about characters from Live Action Movies or Live Action TV Shows. It's pretty laughable when someone claims Ultraman will be in Brawl but there really isn't any proof against it, no matter how silly it seems.
6. Up until now and faulty translations. - In the case of Ness we have a bit of a problem. The Dojo does indeed say that Ness is out. But it says it in a very vague way. And thanks to Translators and their words on what 'up until now' means in Japanese we were further plunged into doubt with the words given by the Dojo. This goes to #3 in the first list in that if the translation isn't literal and given in a vague way Sakurai's own words can be proven otherwise. Later on we got a confirmation that Ness is in through the official Wii website further showing that Sakurai's translated words were given in the wrong fashion.
7. Clones are out so so-and-so can't be in. - Sakurai has never said anything about not including clones. So clones are completely possible. Even so said character can be decloned or given a separate move set that still reflects both characters but different in it's own right.
8. Basically anything that wasn't listed in the list I gave on what CAN disconfirm a character. - As I can't possibly come up with EVERY argument I can't make this complete. Just keep in mind what does disconfirm a character and you'll know what doesn't.
Remember, none of this is for proving that a character IS in it's for disconfirming characters. To confirm a character is much more complex. The two basic things that confirm a character are the dojo and an official source (such as the video on wii.com with the sticker icons that confirmed Lucario, Ness and Jigglypuff). There is one thing that confirms a character is in but doesn't confirm that they're PCs and that's a voice actor working with them on the game (such as Kyrstal's voice actor). Though provided enough evidence any source could be credible enough to be proven true (such as Brawl level art on characters that aren't shown in the dojo).
I know this is a little late in the Smash development and the game is only 9 days away but it would be nice if these kinds of arguments disappeared before we got the real roster.
If anyone has any other input feel free to add.
